the dairy situation and policy responses in the united states presented at an agricultural economics...
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The Dairy Situation and Policy The Dairy Situation and Policy Responses in the United StatesResponses in the United States
Presented at an Agricultural Economics Presented at an Agricultural Economics WorkshopWorkshop
Brussels, September 29, 2009 Brussels, September 29, 2009
Daniel A. Sumner, Director University of California Agricultural Issues Center and
Professor Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Davis
All milk: nominal monthly price, January 2006-August 2009
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09
$ p
er c
wt
Dairy farmers in desperate straits
By Jerry Hirsch , May 29, 2009 LA Times
Falling prices are forcing many to sell their cows for meat. Some are threatening to dump milk into sewers. Two have committed suicide.
In California, the No. 1 dairy state, the pain is felt keenly.
“The California Milk Advisory Board continues to ply its "Happy Cows" advertising campaign, but there are few happy dairy farmers right now.
“Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. Many are burning through their life savings hoping to survive the slump, and others are exiting the business.”
All milk: monthly real prices, Jan 1971 - Aug 2009
10
15
20
25
30
35Ja
n-7
1Ja
n-7
2Ja
n-7
3Ja
n-7
4Ja
n-7
5Ja
n-7
6Ja
n-7
7Ja
n-7
8Ja
n-7
9Ja
n-8
0Ja
n-8
1Ja
n-8
2Ja
n-8
3Ja
n-8
4Ja
n-8
5Ja
n-8
6Ja
n-8
7Ja
n-8
8Ja
n-8
9Ja
n-9
0Ja
n-9
1Ja
n-9
2Ja
n-9
3Ja
n-9
4Ja
n-9
5Ja
n-9
6Ja
n-9
7Ja
n-9
8Ja
n-9
9Ja
n-0
0Ja
n-0
1Ja
n-0
2Ja
n-0
3Ja
n-0
4Ja
n-0
5Ja
n-0
6Ja
n-0
7Ja
n-0
8Ja
n-0
9
$ p
er c
wt
All milk: monthly U.S. price, January 2006 - Aug 2009
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
$ p
er c
wt
2006 2007
2008 2009
Not just the price of milk, but of course, productive cows must eat
Price ratio of milk to feed, Jan 2006 -Aug 2009(feed pounds that can be purchased per pound of milk)
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Po
un
ds
of
da
iry
fee
d p
er p
ou
nd
of
mil
k a
t m
ark
et p
rice
s
Price ratio of milk to feed, Jan 2006 -Aug 2009
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Pou
nd
s of
dai
ry f
eed
per
pou
nd
of
mil
k a
t m
ark
et p
rice
s
2006 2007 2008 2009
Dairy: monthly average number of U.S. milk cows (The low to high jump is about 2%)
9.1
9.15
9.2
9.25
9.3
9.35
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09
mil
lio
n h
ead
All milk: average daily U.S. production(About 4% growth, less than annual flux)
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5J
an-
06
Ma
r-06
Ma
y-06
Ju
l-06
Sep
-06
No
v-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
r-07
Ma
y-07
Ju
l-07
Sep
-07
No
v-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
r-08
Ma
y-08
Ju
l-08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
r-09
Ma
y-09
Ju
l-09
mil
lio
n c
wt
Lots of cows, and from the farmer perspective, “too much milk”
All milk: average daily U.S. production, January 2006 - August 2009
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
mil
lion
cw
t
2006 2007
2008 2009
The export market, especially for skim milk powder, had in recent years become a source of significant demand for US milk and contributed to high prices.
With the global recession that market contracted.
Skim-fat dry milk powder: monthly U.S. exports, January 2006- July 2009
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15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1000
met
ric
ton
s
2006 2007
2008 2009
Skim-fat dry milk powder: monthly U.S. export unit value,January 2006- July 2009
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
$ p
er m
etri
c to
n
2006 2007
2008 2009
Supply and demand illustration of recent prices and quantities
Government policy responsesPrice support increased
• The dairy industry has been quieter than vocal protesters for other causes, but have been able to raise the “price support” and the government is now acquiring cheese and skim milk powder after several years of no activity (purchases will be a few % of milk production in 2009).
• Purchase prices raised by around 15% for butter skim milk powder and cheese.
More government support
• Payments to producers (MILC) was triggered by low prices and will account for about 4% of dairy revenue in 2009.
• Additional purchases under school lunch and international food aid programs
• A small export subsidy program was reactivated
• None of the new activities are “large” and have done relatively little to stem the price declines.
• Stock accumulation and payments probably prolonged the supply demand pressure that keep market prices low
Coops Working Together (CWT): industry funded whole-herd cow slaughter program
• Program of periodic cow removal program run by the industry that gets funds from coops and pays farms to exit the industry and send cows for slaughter
• Removed 100K cows in spring of 2009 and another 90K cows this fall.
• But many of these cows would have exited anyway and the program surely delayed some exits as farms waited to be paid to go.
• Additional milk supply reduction and contribution to raising short run market prices is limited.
Under these programs some cows leave and more heifers enter production
Current Policy Ideas
• Government is pursuing legal cases against buyers (including dairy farmer cooperatives) charging use of market power to suppress farm prices
• This idea does not seem to fit the price patterns; buyers had power last year too when prices were high! Also, there is a lack of theory and evidence for how cooperatives suppress their own member prices.
• This may be simply a political distraction and is popular among the most vocal among farmers
Variable marketing quota program
• Use marketing quotas to manage supply, keep out new farms and limit allowed sales when prices decline
• But, the idea is to somehow do this without creating a EU or Canadian style system with capital value built into the quota
• Benefits the old and inefficient and makes the industry less dynamic
8
9
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17
18
$ p
er c
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Actual class III milk prices and futures prices
Is the short run crisis on the way to resolving itself. Seems likely that milk prices will continue to rise and feed prices will continue to decline and profits will return. At least until next time!