The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism for the IGAD Region

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• Conflict

• Early

•Warning &

•Response

•Mechanism

C E W A R N

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Need for the Establishment of CEWARN

• 1995: recognition by Member States to address conflicts in the region by revitalizing the IGAD Charter

• 30 potentially threatening inter-communal conflicts by late 1990s

• Proliferation and availability of small arms in the region

• A collapsed state due to internal conflicts (Somalia)

• Recent inter-state war between two Member States

• A great number of endemic violent cross-border pastoral conflicts

• Continued threat of inter-state wars arising from cross-border inter-communal and inter-clan conflicts

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The Process of Establishing CEWARN

• “Khartoum Declaration“ in 2000

• Development of the CEWARN Protocol and methodology

• Opening of the CEWARN Unit in Addis Ababa/Ethiopia, July 2003

• Entry into force of the CEWARN Protocol in August 2003

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CEWARN's Mandate

The CEWARN mandate is:

“to receive and share information concerning potentially violent conflicts as well as their outbreak and escalation in the IGAD region, undertake analysis of the information and develop case scenarios and formulate options for response.”

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Programmatic Focus on Pastoral Conflicts

Though the CEWARN mandate covers all types of conflicts, it was agreed that, as entry point, the Mechanism should start by monitoring cross-border pastoral conflicts, because:

• Over 60% of the region’s land is arid and semi-arid lands inhabited by pastoralists.

• Agreement among MS on the need to address the plight of pastoral communities across borders of the IGAD region.

• Many conflicts in the region are natural resource based.

• The focus on pastoral conflicts is a spring board for building the necessary confidence among MS to address other conflicts through EW and ER.

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The Functions of CEWARN

� Collection of information by Field Monitors based in the Areas of Reporting

� Analysis and verification of information collected using a software Program - the CEWARN Reporter.

� Formulation of best, worst and most likely case scenarios and response options.

� Communication of recommendations on policy and response options to prevent/mitigate pastoral conflicts to decision-makers at the national level through the National Early Warning and Response Units (CEWERUs).

� Promote the exchange of information and collaboration among MS on EW and ER through regional structures like the Committee of Permanent Secretaries (CPS) and Technical Committee on Early Warning (TCEW).

� Creation of linkages and sharing information with other regional and international organizations dealing with EW and ER including the AU-CEWS, ECOWAS-EW, ECCAS, SADC and EAC.

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CEWARN Unit

�Coordination, Monitoring and Quality Control

TCEWTechnical Committee on

Early Warning

IGAD Secretariat

Peace &

Security

Division

Agriculture

&

Environment

Division

Economic

Cooperation

Division

IGAD Council of Ministers

CPS

Committee of Permanent Secretaries

�Policy Decisions at Regional Level

N

A

T

I

O

N

A

L

R

E

G

I

O

N

A

L

L

O

C

A

L

CEWERU

Conflict Early Warning

and Early Response Unit

(Steering Committees)

�Response Initiatives

NRINational Research Institutes

FM

Field Monitors

�Data Collection in

Areas of Reporting

Local Committees

�Implementation at Local Level

CC

CEWARN Country Coordinator

�Coding and Analysis of Information

�Early Warning Reports

Sub-Regional

Peace Councils

(to be created)

EARLY RESPONSE EARLY WARNING

= structure

in all

IGAD Member

States

Structural

Relation

Flow of

Information

Organizational Structure of the CEWARN Mechanism

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CEWERU/Local committeesbased at national and local levels

in each Member State

NationalResearch Institute

tasked with data collection,coding, analysis at national level

data

data

reports

IGADSecretariat

CEWARNMonitoring at regional level; quality

control in coding and analysis

Committee of PermanentSecretaries

(CPS)

COUNTRY

LEVEL

Technical Committeefor Early Warning

(TCEW)

reports

reports

Regional reports

reports

Information Flow

FM FM FM FM FMInformation collection

REGIONAL

LEVEL

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THE CEWARN UNIT – ADDIS ABABA

• Falls under the Peace and Security Directorate of IGAD

• Serves as the regional coordination office for the Mechanism

• Headed by a Director, 4 professional staff members (+ 2 more)

• Houses the country and regional data reporter system

• Responsible for supervision, coordination and quality control of data collected and analysis produced by CEWARN

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Composition of the National CEWERU’s

The CEWERU Steering Committee comprises both state

and non-state representatives:

�Representatives of the central government, including members of Parliament, provincial administration, police and military.

�Representatives of CSO’s, including religious organizations, elders, academic and research institutions

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Functions of CEWERUs

• Receiving and reviewing reports of analyses received from the NRI.

• Formulating and adopting response strategies to prevent or mitigate pastoral conflicts in the MS.

• Acting as a link between MS and CEWARN.

• Responsible for the establishment and functioning of local committees in the Areas of Reporting.

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The National Research Institute (NRI)

An NRI is an independent academic institute or NGO contracted byCEWARN.

NRI’s are responsible for:

• Recruitment and supervision of CEWARN Country Coordinators and Field Monitors.

• Receiving, coding and analysis of field data as well as timely submission of analyzed reports to the CEWARN Unit and the CEWERU.

The NRI’s in the region are:

Ethiopia:Inter Africa Group (IAG)

Kenya: Africa Peace Forum (APFO)

Uganda: Center for Basic Research (CBR)

Sudan: Peace Research Institute (Univ.Khartoum)

Eritrea: Citizens for peace

Djibouti: Cabinet de Consultant Formation et Ingenierie Sociale (CCFIS)

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Areas of Reporting (AoR’s)

Karamoja and Somali Clusters

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Methodology

Collection of information

• CEWARN collects and analyses information using a software tool - the Reporter.

• The Reporter is fed with both Incident Reports and Situation Reports on a weekly basis.

• Violent incidents recorded include raids, armed clashes, protest demonstrations and other crime like assaults and banditry.

• The information collected is based on a set of 52 behavioral indicators tracking communal relations, civil society activities, economic activities, governance and media,natural disasters and resource use, safety and security and social services.

• In addition to this event data, CEWARN now is in the process of collecting and integrating structural data in the Reporter.

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Welcome

Introduction

Identifying

Reporting

Incident Reports

Situation Reports

Agenda

Conclusion

Quality Control

Incident Reports

Incident Reports

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Welcome

Introduction

Identifying

Reporting

Incident Reports

Situation Reports

Agenda

Conclusion

Quality Control

Situation Reports

Situation Reports

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Violent Incidents

Chart 1. Karamoja Cluster Violent Incident Reports

(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)

July 2003 - December 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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100

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mber

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nuary

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ch 2

004

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ly 2

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mber

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nuary

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mber

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nuary

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006

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006

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mber

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mbe

r 200

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Month

Incid

en

t R

ep

ort

Co

un

ts

Armed Clashes Protest Demonstrations RaidsOther Crime All Reported Violent Incidents Cross Border

Total No. of Violent Incidents = 1,715

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Human Deaths

Chart 2. Karamoja Cluster Human Deaths

(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)

July 2003 - December 2006

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330340350360370380390400

July

2003

Septe

mber

2003

Nove

mber 2

003

Januar

y 200

4M

arch

2004

May

200

4Jul

y 200

4

Septem

ber 2

004

Nov

ember

200

4

Janua

ry 2

005M

arch

2005

May

2005

July

2005

Septe

mber

2005

Nove

mbe

r 200

5

Januar

y 200

6M

arch

2006

May

2006

July 2

006

Septe

mber

200

6

Nov

ember

200

6

Month

Hu

ma

n D

ea

th C

ou

nts

All Deaths Women & Children

Total no. of human deaths during July 03 – December 2006 = 2,874

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Livestock Losses

Chart 3. Karamoja Cluster Net Livestock Losses

(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)

July 2003 - December 2006

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

100001100012000130001400015000

July

200

3

Septe

mbe

r 200

3

Nov

embe

r 200

3

Janu

ary

2004

Mar

ch 2

004

May

200

4Ju

ly 2

004

Septe

mbe

r 200

4

Nov

embe

r 200

4

Janu

ary

2005

Mar

ch 2

005

May

200

5Ju

ly 2

005

Septe

mbe

r 200

5

Nov

embe

r 200

5

Janu

ary

2006

Mar

ch 2

006

May

200

6Ju

ly 2

006

Septe

mbe

r 200

6

Nov

embe

r 200

6

Month

Co

un

t o

f L

ive

sto

ck

Lo

ss

es

Net Livestock Losses (Number killed and stolen minus those recovered)

Total no. of net live stock loss (Livestock Raided-Recovered) during July 03 –December 2006 = 144,513

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CEWARN Outputs

Type of Report Frequency Level

� Alerts Immediately National/Regional

� Situation Briefs As the need arises National/Regional

� Country Updates Every four months National

� Cluster Reports Every four months Regional

� Annual Risk Assessment Annually National/Regional (to be launched)

� Country Baseline Studies For all new areas;and evaluation every 5 years

National

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Experiences in Establishing CEWARN

Achievements

• Most developed data-based regional EW system in Africa

• State of the art field monitoring and data analysis tool

• Documenting extent of violence in the pilot pastoralist areas

• Capacity building in CPMR

• Enhanced confidence and trust between stakeholders

Gaps & Lessons Learnt

• Lack of efficient response component for CEWARN

• Broadening sources of information necessary

• Work of CEWARN remains largely unknown

• Institutional and functional weaknesses

• Absence of comprehensive fundraising plan

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Challenges

• Poor infrastructure and inaccessibility of the areas of coverage

• Inadequate capacity in addressing conflicts

• Lack of information and coordination between the various actors

• Complexity of conflicts in the region

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CEWARN Strategy 2007-2011

CEWARN has developed a 5-year strategic plan with the following focus:

• Strengthen the early response side of the mechanism by fully operationalizing CEWERUs in all IGAD Member States.

• Expand the monitoring and reporting of pastoral and related conflicts in all IGAD Member States.

• Strengthen the institutional and functional capacity of CEWARN.

• Widen sources of information, enhance the information collectionsystem, and strengthen the data analysis capacity of CEWARN.

• Develop a public relations and communication strategy and promote awareness on CEWARN’s work.

• Implement a sustainable long-term funding strategy that will ensure CEWARN’s access to adequate resources to fulfill its mandate.

• Lay the foundation and build the capacity to expand to other types of conflicts.

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CEWARN Rapid Response Fund

Rationale

� To provide CEWARN with the flexibility and rapid response capacity which it requires to be an effective mechanism to address pastoral and related conflicts

� Proposals will come from local or regional peace communities, submitted through the respective CEWERUs.

� Projects to be financed by the Fund should be directly targeted to prevent, de-escalate or resolve pastoral conflicts.

� Decisions will be taken by a Steering Committee (IGAD, CEWARN, Member States, Partners in Development).

� Initiatives to be funded can be of a regional, cross-border, national or of community based nature.

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