Project on Conflict Prevention and Early Warning

Objective

Develop a methodology to:• Assess existing and potential conflicts in Latin

America for use by INTL.ORG in coordinating international activity in the region

• Assess the impact of conflict on democracy in the region

• Assess the capacity of democratic regimes to confront the multiple forms of violent conflict in the region

Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy

Theoretical Foundations for most approaches:– Schumpeter: democratic method-institutional

arrangement to structure political decisions by individuals by means of competitive elections

– Dahl: polyarchy-contestation and participation; implies the existence of civil and political freedoms

– Linz: efficacy, effectiveness, legitimacy• efficacy: capacity of regime to find solutions to basic problems

• effectiveness: capacity to implement policies with the desired results

• legitimacy: shaped by efficacy and effectiveness

Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy

Schedler’s stages of democratic consolidation:– authoritarianism– electoral democracy– liberal democracy– advanced democracy

From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments

USAID Democracy and Governance USAID Democracy and Governance AssessmentAssessment

• STEP 1STEP 1-Five dynamic variables: – consensus, competition, inclusion, rule of law, good

governance• STEP 2STEP 2- Key players, their interests, resources, alliances and

strategies• STEP 3STEP 3- Institutional arenas in which political game is played,

including incentives for democratic and antidemocratic behavior• STEP 4STEP 4- Adapting assessment to donor objectives and

constraints

From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments

International Institute for Democracy and International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance:Electoral Assistance:– Citizenship, law and rights– Representative and accountable government– Civil society and popular participation– International dimensions of democracy

From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments

World Bank Institute:World Bank Institute:– Process by which governments are selected, held

accountable, monitored and replaced- voice & accountability; political stability and violence

– Capacity to manage resources efficiently and to formulate, implement and enforce policies – quality regulatory framework; government effectiveness

– Respect for economic and social institutions – control of corruption; rule of law

From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments

UNDPUNDP– GOVERNANCE:GOVERNANCE: exercise of economic, political and

administrative authority to manage a country’s affairs and the means by which states promote social cohesion, integration and ensure well-being

– Five focus areas: • Governing institutions• Public and private sector management• Decentralization• Civil society organizations• Governance in special circumstances

Conflict Prevention

PIOOMPIOOM-Five stages of conflict and two crisis thresholds:– Stage 1: peaceful stable situation

– Stage 2: political tension situation

Threshold 1: POLITICAL CRISISPOLITICAL CRISIS

– Stage 3: violent political conflict

– Stage 4: low-intensity conflict

Threshold 2: HUMANITARIAN CRISISHUMANITARIAN CRISIS

– Stage 5: high-intensity conflict

Conflict Prevention

-mainstreaming conflict prevention:– Causes of violence:Causes of violence:

• Structural problems• Triggers

– Four-stage model of conflict:Four-stage model of conflict:• Discussion stage• Polarization stage• Segregation stage• Destruction stage

Conflict Prevention

International Peace AcademyInternational Peace Academy-Five phases of conflict:– Potential conflict

– Gestation of conflict

– Trigger/Mobilization

– Conflict/Escalation

– Post-conflict

Conflict Prevention

Linking Strategies of Conflict Prevention with phases of conflict (IPA):– Structural prevention: potential conflict (structural

causes)– Conflict management/ prevention: gestation phase– Crisis management/preventive diplomacy:

trigger/mobilization– Crisis/conflict management and termination: conflict

escalation– Post-conflict peacebuilding: post-conflict

Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America

Democracy literature (theoretical and assessments):– useful for understanding democratic regime

transition and consolidation– needs to be refined to capture non-democratic

groups and practices in secondary institutional arenas and society

Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America

Conflict Prevention Frameworks:– existing stage models of conflict have limited utility

when applied to conflict in Latin America where most conflicts:

• are clustered in the Potential, Gestation, and Post-conflict phases, and

• are unlikely to escalate as predicted by existing frameworks

– need to be reconceptualized:• to analyze the range and phases of conflicts most prevalent in

Latin America• to develop policy instruments appropriate for the region

Distinctiveness of the region

Political •Coherent states – not failed states

•Lengthy independence since early 19th century

•Early/middle stages democratic transition

Economic •Middle income GDP’s

•Extreme inequality

•Low to mid rates of growth

•Severe, concentrated poverty

•High underemployment

Socio-Cultural •Majority Catholic

•Moderate ethnic division

•Majority urban

•Mid to late stages of democratic transition

International •U.S. sphere of influence

•Active in trade blocs

•Relatively secure borders

Distinctiveness of the region

Bringing Together Democracy and Conflict

CONFLICT AND DEMOCRACY: LATIN AMERICA IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Post-Conflict Guatemala El Salvador N. Ireland Nicaragua

Peru

Chechnya

Afghanistan Escalation/Conflict Sierra Leone

Congo

Colombia

Trigger/Mobilization Nigeria Gestation Iraq Haití Libya Potential

Venezuela Argentina Mexico Ecuador Bolivia Honduras Brazil Paraguay Costa Rica Chile Uruguay

Cuba

United States Japan Switzerland New Zealand Denmark Canada

Authoritarianism Electoral Representative Advanced

Political and Non-Political Conflict

Domestic Violence

Traffic Violence

Assault Opportunity Theft

Rape Armed Robbery

Extortion

Youth Gangs

Local-Regional organized crime

Assassination

Individual Terrorism

Anomic Protest

Intimidation of local authorities

Electoral Fraud/Intimidation

Police (rogue officers)

Army (rogue officers)

National organized crime

Transnational organized crime

• Migrant trafficking

• Arms trafficking

• Auto trafficking

• Drug trafficking

Selective repression

Selective repression

Land invasion

Environmental conflict

Ethnic conflict

Labor conflict

Electoral Support Guerrilla

Extradition Paramilitary

Low

High

Degree of Organization

Low Nonpolitical Political High

Types of Hypotheses on Violence and Crime

• H1:H1: transnational organized crime increases incidence of diffuse social and criminal violence

• H2:H2: sustained periods of organized political violence increases diffuse social and criminal violence

• H3: perceptions of inadequate enforcement promote diffuse social and criminal violence and organized crime

Hypotheses on Violence and Democracy

• H1:H1: political and non-political violent conflict erodes social capital, trust, and community

• H2:H2: political and non-political violent conflict undermines citizen confidence in the ability of government to maintain order and protect life and property

• H3:H3: H1 and H2 lead to lower levels of participation• H4:H4: H1 and H2 lead to citizen self-protection • H5:H5: H1 and H2 lead to forms of private justice such

as paramilitaries, death squads, etc.

First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict PreventionTwo Dimensions: Democracy and ConflictDEMOCRACY:• Democratic regime: Procedures

-Inclusion, participation, exclusion-Consensus on regime and rules-Competition (parties, ideas, programs)

• Quality of democracy regime and society-Rule of Law: state capacity, unequal access, private

justice, impunity-Transparency/ Corruption

First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict PreventionCONFLICT- Mapping conflict geographically (sub-regionally

and nationally) and by social groups, gender and ethnicity

-Applying criteria from Table 1: diffuse –organized, non-political -political

-Testing hypotheses by exploring relationship among types of violence and between violent conflict and its impact on democratic regime and society

First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict PreventionTowards Indicators and Data:After overview assessment of democracy and conflict, narrowing the

study to key areas of crisis and potential crisis:Example: Rule of Law – mapping the actions of violent actors and victimsData collection (quantitative and qualitative) on: judicial processes in a

variety of arenas: human rights, violent crime, ethnic conflict. Data from official sources, police, military, human rights groups, civil society organizations and NGOs, Victims Organizations.

Impunity: Victim surveys (all violent crimes, political violence, ethnic and/or gender violence)– What percentage of violent crime is reported. Of those reported, how many crimes are brought to trial? How many lead to conviction of the perpetrator?

How a Regional Conflict Prevention Strategy can be used as an Early

Warning System• Early Warning of what?• Most conflicts in the region will not lead to generalized armed conflict,

civil war and state collapse.• Existing Early Warning Systems: - are oriented to other world regions and emphasize the monitoring and

early warning of conflict.-do not develop remedial actions or policies

• Two schools: 1) remote, computer-based models for forecasting violent conflict, 2) qualitative and filed based case studies

• In Latin America, need to develop an Early Warning System that can understand the dynamics of “slow death” of democratic regimes as a result of multiple forms of violent conflict and citizen marginalization, as well as those flash points of broader national or sub-regional crisis or potential crisis.

Next Steps

• Workshop to discuss methodology • Apply methodology: First case: June 2002

(Candidates: Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, other) Case studies conducted between and January 2003).

• Refine methodology after each case study• Deliver final methodology and apply conflict

prevention methodology and Early Warning System throughout the region