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The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get Here and Where Is It Going?
Eric Higham
Strategy Analytics
Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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Advanced Semiconductor Applications (ASA) Service
• Consumer Electronics
• Cellular handsets
• Wi-Fi
• Satellite & CATV
• Solid-state lighting
• Lasers
• Networks
• Wireless base stations & backhaul
• Fiber transport
• Broadband (wired & wireless)
• VSAT
Tracking Semiconductor Technology to End Applications
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Technologies
Components
Applications
GaAs GaN
Silicon
SiGeInP
SiC “Other”
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• Automotive Electronics
• Sensing technologies
• Aerospace & Defense
• Radar, EW, Communications
• High Power Electronics
• Medical Electronics
• Instrumentation
Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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What IS a Compound Semiconductor?
• Simply put…semiconductors with two or more elements
‒ “III-V” is a common term, but not all inclusive
• Combination of elements is done to achieve a performance advantage
‒ Frequency, power, efficiency, etc.
• Lack the volume/low cost manufacturing ecosystem of silicon
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Source: Sumitomo Electric Industries
Source: IntechSource: Wikipedia
Source: CompoundSemiconductor.net
Compound Semiconductor Market Drivers
• Data traffic growth drives the entire market
• CAAGR of mobile data growth is ~70% since 2009!
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• Convergence of voice, video and data networks enables the explosive growth in data traffic
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Compound Semiconductor Demand:
• Supports and enables:
‒ Evolution of wireless, consumer and industrial devices
‒ Next generation wired and wireless networks
‒ Automotive advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)
‒ Defense transition to network-centric battlefield philosophies
‒ Solid-state lighting
‒ High power electronics
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The Compound Semiconductor Device Market
• Total compound semi market is estimated at ~$24B
‒ Anticipated to grow to ~$44B in 2020
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• LED market is the largest
‒ ~60% of the market revenue
• HPE is the fastest growing
‒ Silicon is the incumbent
• RF growth will be slow
‒ ~25% of the market in 2020
Source: Strategy Analytics
Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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GaN Advantages
• Device characteristics provide a host of advantages:
• Higher efficiency means less DC power, less need for cooling
• Higher frequency operation encompasses more applications
• Temperature performance enables electronics closer to the antenna
• Higher power density means higher power output performance
• Or the same power output…but with fewer components
Superior frequency, efficiency, voltage breakdown, speed, temperature, power density, current density
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Material Properties Si GaAs GaN
Saturation velocity (cm/s) 1 x 107 0.8 x 107 2.5 x 107
Breakdown E-field (MV/cm) 0.3 0.4 3.0
e- mobility (cm2/Vs) 1350 8000 1500
Eg bandgap (eV) 1.1 1.4 3.4
Ft (GHz) FET 20 150 150
Power density (W/mm) 0.2 0.5 >30
Thermal conductivity (W/cm/K) 1.5 0.5 ~2.0Source: Strategy Analytics
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Total RF GaN Device Revenue
• GaN revenue jump in 2014 is driven by China LTE infrastructure deployments
• Total revenue CAAGR of ~60% from 2007 - 2015
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• Commercial market gaining traction
‒ Dominated by infrastructure
• Defense nurtured the technology
‒ DARPA funding and programs
Source: Strategy Analytics
2015 RF GaN Device Revenue Segmentation
• Commercial RF GaN applications currently accounts for ~60% of revenue
‒ Defense growth will reduce this gap
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• Infrastructure is largest segment
• Anticipating strong defense growth
‒ Radar, comms, EW
Source: Strategy Analytics
Historical GaAs Device Revenue
• DoD funding in the 1990s changed the applications
• Wireless Revolution changed the trajectory!
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• 11% CAAGR since 2004
• Exceeded $7B for the first time
‒ >$8B including foundry
2014 GaAs Device Revenue Segmentation
• Wireless segment dominates the GaAs device market
‒ Segment accounts for ~80% of total revenue
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• Cellular terminals drive revenue
‒ Just about exclusively PAs!
Source: Strategy Analytics
Conclusions (Past & Present)
• Government funding developed the GaAs ecosystem
‒ Performance is the fuel
‒ Commercial applications are the growth engine for the market
• Growth of GaAs drove the growth of other compound semi technologies
‒ InP, SiC, SiGe, GaN all offer performance advantages
‒ Compound semi component industry has grown to ~$24B
• Silicon is the biggest competitive technology
‒ Under fire as the incumbent technology in the HPE market
‒ Capturing share in the RF and LED segments
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Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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Storm Clouds on the Horizon?
• This is notable because it’s actually smartphone PAs that drive the GaAs industry!
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• Handset growth is slowing
‒ ~3% CAAGR to reach ~2.1B in 2020
• Smartphone growth is slowing
‒ ~7% CAAGR 2014 – 2020
‒ ~43% CAAGR 2008 – 2014!
Source: Strategy Analytics
Increasing Complexity in Smartphones
• Switches‒ 73 switch throws‒ 10 discretes + 3 in modules
• Amplifiers‒ 16 power amplifier paths‒ 2 LNAs
• Filters‒ 7 duplexers‒ 26 BPF
• Bands‒ Quad-EDGE‒ W-CDMA: B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B8
• Sub-bands: 9, 10, 18, 19, 20, 26
‒ TD-SCDMA: B34, B39‒ TD-LTE: B38, B39, B40, B41‒ FD-LTE: B3, B7, B8
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Source: Strategy Analytics
The 5G Vision
• “Unlimited access to information and the ability to share data anywhere, anytime by anyone and anything”
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Source: Nokia
The Challenge
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Source: ITU Recommendation ITU-R M.2083-0, September 2015
Qualcomm/Heavyreading Webinar
Network Architecture Vision
• Many (compound) semiconductor opportunities that revolve around:‒ Better performance‒ Lower cost‒ Higher reliability
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Source: Ericsson
• Architectural Pillars• MIMO
• Beamforming
• Wi-Fi
• “Ultra-dense” deployments
• Vehicle-to-vehicle
• M2M (IoT)
• Device-to-device
• Cooperative devices
• Multi-hop communication
Transport Network Vision
• Optical transport: 100 Tbps
• E-band backhaul: 80 Gbps
• Macrocell: 50 Gbps
• Small Cells: 100 Gbps
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3.bp.blogspot.com
RF GaN Market Share Forecast
• Commercial RF GaN applications, particularly infrastructure are growing
‒ Infrastructure revenue profile will be a bit uneven
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• Infrastructure remains the largest segment
• Fast growth propels defense applications to nearly 50% of the market in 2020
• ~$690M in 2020
Source: Strategy Analytics
2014 GaAs Device Market Share Forecast
• Anticipate slow growth for the GaAs device market
• Silicon will provide a “headwind”
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• Wireless will continue to be ~80%
• Cellular terminals will be 50-55% of total
Source: Strategy Analytics
Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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Conclusions (Future)
• The overall compound semiconductor market is poised for good growth
‒ ~13% CAAGR will just about double revenue by 2020
• The growth trajectories will not be the same for all segments
‒ LED segment will remain the largest
• GaN-on-silicon will begin making inroads
‒ HPE segment will see the fastest growth for compound semis
• GaN and SiC will offer greatly improved performance capabilities
‒ RF segment will be a bit uneven
• Increasing RF content will offset slowing smartphone growth
• 5G is the wildcard…it will be a growth driver for the semiconductor industry
• But…will this benefit silicon or a compound semiconductor technology??
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Thank You!
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Eric HighamStrategy Analyticswww.strategyanalytics.comehigham@strategyanalytics.com617-614-0721