the changing face of houston: tracking the economic and demographic trans-
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THE CHANGING FACE OF HOUSTON: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Trans- formations Through 28 Years of Houston Surveys. STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG 633 rd Meeting of the Houston Philosophical Society 19 November 2009. THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2009). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
THE CHANGING FACE OF HOUSTON: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Trans-formations Through 28 Years of Houston Surveys
STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG633rd Meeting of the Houston Philosophical Society
19 November 2009
Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, the annual surveys have interviewed 28 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents.
In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Sur- vey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.
The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . .
• a restructured economy and • a demographic revolution.
These are the same transformations that have refashioned American society itself in the past quarter-century. For 28 years, the Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.
THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2009)
FIGURE 1: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPOR-TUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2009)
67
52
76
41
47
11
29
27
40 41
46 45
7273
67
39 40
50
53
60
49
38
57
48
52
31
18
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9
Year of Survey
Per
cen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
Percent rating job opportunities in the Houston area as either "excellent" or "good."
FIGURE 2: NEGATIVE RATINGS OF JOB OP-PORTUNITIES IN RELATION TO THE OFFI- CIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2009)
58
71
87
80
65
42
25
49
5654
65
70
5252
56
23
30
23
30
46
42
5658
43
3638
4850
6.3
5.9
7.07.1
7.8
5.25.2
8.3
7.8
9.6
10.1
9.8
6.7
4.8
4.14.34.4
5.6
5.7
6.0
6.3
4.5
4.1
6.8
6.4
6.0 5.9
4.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9
Year of Survey
Pe
rce
nt
Giv
ing
Ne
ga
tiv
e R
ati
ng
s
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
Off
icia
l Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
s
Percent rating "job opportunities" in the Houstonarea as only "fair" or "poor," in comparison withthe official unemployment rates in Harris County.
(Negative ratings ofjob opportunities)
(Official Unem-ployment rates in Harris County)
FIGURE 3: “WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY?” (1982-2009)
28
1113
33
4037
19
11
59
45
24
21
138
3
37
4143
51
20
2624
35
48
3334
31
12
22 22
8743
98
27
23
25
18
13
15
60
31
24
42
72
12
1420 21
121211
15
109810
26
10
44
20
17
3435
60
49
39
54
65
73
24
31
36
19
131110
6
1413
26
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9
Year of Survey
Perc
en
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
traffic
economy
crime
(Traffic)
(Economy)
(Crime)
(Traffic)
(Economy)
(Crime)
THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY
The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.
The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now
largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today re- quire high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.
In 2008, 74% of the survey respondents disagreed that, “A high school education is enough to get a good job.” In the 2007 survey, 61% agreed that, “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.”
In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”
FIGURE 4: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTER-CENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II
116
4
100
9
111
13
114
22
99
46
86
68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
The Postwar Quarter-Century (1949-1979) The Millennial Quarter-Century (1979-2003)
Perc
en
t In
cre
ase i
n B
efo
re-T
ax I
nco
mes
Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% Top 5%
Percent Increases in Before-Tax Household IncomesSource: U.S. Census; Robert H. Frank. 2007. Falling Behind. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, pp. 10-11.
Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the city’s ability to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high tech companies.
This will require continued significant improvements in . . .
• the region’s mobility and transportation systems• the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers• the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture • the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous• the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas• the healthfulness of its air and water quality• Its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal
THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF “QUALITY-OF-PLACE” CONSIDERATIONS
The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.
FIGURE 5: THE IMPORTANCE OF A MUCH IMPROVED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM AND OF INCLUDING A RAIL COMPONENT (1991-2008)
6263
57
52
4547
58
49
4645
32
34
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1991 1993 2003 2004 2006 2008
Year of Survey
Pe
rce
nt
Sa
yin
g, "
Ve
ry Im
po
rta
nt"
The development of a much im-proved mass transit system is "veryimportant" for Houston's future.
[ If "somewhat" or "very important": ] It is "very important" for that transitsystem to have a rail component.
Between 1492 and 1965, 82 percent of all the people in the world who came to American shores came from Europe.
Under the notorious 1924 “National Origins Quota Act,” U.S. immigration was dramatically reduced, and newcomers were restricted almost entirely to the “Nordics” of Western Europe.
In 1965, the “Hart-Celler Act” for the first time accepted large numbers of non-Europeans, with preferences based primarily on family reunification, professional skills, or refugee status.
As a result, major new immigrant flows — non-European and of striking socioeconomic diversity — are rapidly transforming
the composition of the Houston, and American, populations.
U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE REFORM ACT OF 1965
FIGURE 6: THE NUMBERS OF DOCUMENTED U.S. IMMIGRANTS, BY DECADE (1820-2000)
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov).
5.736
4.107
9.095
7.338
4.493
3.322
2.515
1.035
0.528
8.795
3.688
5.247
2.812
2.315
2.598
1.713
0.599
0.143
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1821-1830
1831-1840
1841-1850
1851-1860
1861-1870
1871-1880
1881-1890
1891-1900
1901-1910
1911-1920
1921-1930
1931-1940
1941-1950
1951-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
Nu
mb
ers
of
Imm
igra
nts
(In
Mil
lio
ns)
THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chi- cago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. Throughout all of its history . . .
• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,
• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken- for-granted way, by white men.
Today . . .
• Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metro-politan areas in the country, and
• all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”
FIGURE 7: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFOR-MATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2008)
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2007 Official Population Estimates.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1960(1,243,258)
1970(1,741,912)
1980(2,409,547)
1990(2,818,199)
2000(3,400,578)
2008, est.*(3,984,349)
Po
pu
lati
on
, in
Mil
lio
ns
Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others
6.0%
19.8%
9.9%
20.1%
69.2%
15.5%
19.7%
62.7%
22.7%
19.1%
54.0%
6.7%
32.9%
18.2%
42.1%
6.7%
39.3%
17.9%
36.0%
73.9%
0.3%
0.8%
2.1%
4.1%
INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE
The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.
Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 44 to 62. In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double.
The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged.
The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by genera- tion, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background.
Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.
FIGURE 8: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2004-2009, COMBINED)
59.6
42.3
23.5
16.718.4
21.123.5
16.5
31.7
46.0
2.95.6 5.0
6.9
68.5
12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Ages 60-93 (N=701) Ages 45-59 (N=990) Ages 30-44 (N=826) Ages 18-29 (N=620)
Percen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others
FIGURE 9: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE HOUSTON COMMUNITIES (1994-2009)
75
11
16
48
14
18
27
32
25
18
30
35
32
16
36
29
17
8
18
10
63
14
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Asian Immigrants(N=1,098)
US-born Anglos(N=6,813)
US-born Blacks(N=6,638)
US-born Latinos(N=3,512)
LatinoImmigrants(N=3,406)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Less than H.S. H.S. diploma Some college
College degree Post-graduate
"What is the highest gradeof school or year of college that you've completed?"
FIGURE 10: MEASURES OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009)
24
17
26
39
25 2522
24
34
49
29
50
38
45
52
71
34
71
48
54
6973
37
71
55
59
77
83
43
68
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Education beyondhigh school.
Household incomegreater than $35,000.
Uses a computer atwork or home.
Has health insurancefor self and family.
Lives in the suburbs,outside the city.
Owns the placewhere lives.
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
In U.S. 0-9 years (N=1,236) In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,184) In U.S. 20+ years (N=973)
2nd generation (N=1,403) 3rd+ generation (N=2,118)
FIGURE 11: INDICATORS OF ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009)
17
86
67 67
45
78
26
79
7072
40
84
5350
59
53
31
63
88
30
44
34
26
59
94
18
35
29
15
48
05
1015
202530354045
505560657075
80859095
100105
110115120125
The interview wasconducted in English,rather than Spanish.
Respondent thinks ofself as primarily
Hispanic.
Preschoolers likely tohave problems later if
both parents work.
A disapproved-ofbook should be kept
out of public libraries.
The U.S. should admitmore immigrants inthe next ten years
Three closest friendsin Houston are all
Hispanics.
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
In U.S. 1-9 years (N=1,236) In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,184) In U.S. 20+ years (N=973)
2nd generation (N=1403 3rd+ generation (N=2,118)
FIGURE 12: CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARD HOUSTON’S ETHNIC DIVERSITY (1994–2009)
60
65
69
6664
5957
61
62
67
64
69
63
54
39
5552
57
44
49
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
Per
cen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
The increasing ethnic diversity will eventually become "a source of great strength" for the city.
The increasing ethnic diversity, due to immigration, is "a good thing" (rather than "a bad thing").
The increasing immigration "mostly strengthens" (rather than "threatens") American culture.
(Diversity is a "good thing.")
(Diversity will becomea "great strength.")
(Immigration "strengthens" American culture.)
(r=+.021, n.s.)
(r=+.072, p.=.000)
(r=+.039, p.=.021)
FIGURE 13: POSITIVE RATINGS OF “THE RELA-TIONS AMONG ETHNIC GROUPS” (1992-2009)
44 4544
23
29
20
26
3032
42
52
5051
48
49
49
38
48
56
33
23
20
24
15
19
16
11
28
35
30
35
38
46
31
36
24
41
2529
26
23
25
30
404041
32
39
47
50
48
34
42
36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
Pe
rce
nt
Giv
ing
Po
sit
ive
Ra
tin
gs
Anglos Blacks Latinos
Percent rating "the relations amongethnic groups in the Houston area"as either "excellent" or "good."
FIGURE 14: INTERETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT DISCRIMINATION (2006-2009)
61
2926
13
22
30
6158
31
70
55
3634
31
46
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Blacks and other minoritieshave the same opportunitiesas whites in the U.S. today.
(2006, 2008)
Blacks in U.S. still a longway from having the samechance in life that whites
have. (2007, 2009)
In general, the criminaljustice system in Houston isbiased against blacks. (2006)
In general, the criminaljustice system in Houston is
biased against Hispanics.(2009)
If the Katrina victims hadbeen white, the governmentwould have responded more
quickly. (2006)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Anglos (N=2,044) Blacks (N=2,012) Latinos (N=2,003)
FIGURE 15: INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELA-TIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (HAS-2007)
43.7
51.5
63.2
76.8
86.2
58.556.3
47.5
35.9
23.2
12.3
39.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Ages 18-29 Ages 30-39 Ages 40-49 Ages 50-59 Ages 60-69 Ages 70-93
Age at Last Birthday
Per
cen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
No Yes
"Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who wasnot Anglo?" (Anglo respondents only.)
CONCLUSIONS: HOUSTON AND AMERICA FACE SOME FORMIDABLE CHALLENGES
This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce, and fashion policies that can reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.
To attract the most innovative companies and talented indi- viduals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmen- tally appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the critical drivers of the new economy.
If the region is to flourish in the 21st century, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are invited to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.
The Institute for Urban Research at Rice UniversityProfessor Stephen L. Klineberg, Co-Director713-348-3484 or [email protected]
Contact Rice University (at: [email protected]; or call713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on the first 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on survey findings in the six major sectors of the greater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007)
For further information, or to download additional reports and PowerPoint slides, please visit the Institute’s websites, at: www.houstonareasurvey.org or www.iur.rice.edu
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