the beijing 08 forecast demonstration project and urban prediction needs in china

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November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea

The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and

Urban Prediction Needs in China

LIANG Feng and WANG Jianjie

Beijing Meteorological Bureau, CMA

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Outline

• Urban Prediction needs in China

• Overview of B08FDP

• Benefits and experiences

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Urbanization in China

Urbanization speed up with the rapid development of economy.

2006: 32.53%(Beijing, 75.6%)

Referenced from CIUDSRC’s report, 12 Dec. 2008

Urbanization Rate of China

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November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Thunderstorm

Extreme local rainfall Heavy fog

Hail

• Huge population density in Urban area• City operation systems are very fragile and sensitive to weather changes

Snow

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Needs for Urban Prediction

End users Targets Requirements

Public (individual persons)*

Plan outdoor activities

Daily forecasts for different places of the city, Yes or No

Decision makers (Government, organizations)

Safe and smooth operation of the city

Severe weather forecasts from short-range to nowcasts and warnings, location & intensity

Success of the important events

High impact weather forecasts

* From 2005 to 2008, street surveys were conducted for citizens and tourists in Beijing. Over 8,000 questionnaires were collected.

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Sharp variation in terrain (30-2000 m).

More convective systems in summer

Major challenge for 2008 Olympic Weather Service – detail rainfall forecast

Total area：16,800km2

Mountainous： 62%

Urban： 1,040km2

40N

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Overview of B08FDP

• B08FDP was endorsed By 7th session of WWRP SSC in Oct. 2004• Mission: Through international collaboration, to demonstrate and quantify the benefits during the 2008 Olympic period of an end-to-end nowcasting weather

Service (0-6 h) focused on high impact weather and based on latest science and technology.

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8 nowcasting systems:

International Participants

BJANC (BMB&NCAR),

CARDS (MSC),

GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA),

MAPLE (McGill & WDT),

NIWOT (NCAR),

STEPS (BOM),

SWIRLS (HKO),

TIFS (BOM)

+

Verification (RTFV)

SEIA WG

Core steps of B08FDP

2005

Testing & Training

Strategic Plan

System trials

Local Environment & Systems Development

Demonstration

Training workshops

Systems & infrastructure improvement

2006 2007 2008

Planning & Developing Demo.

Warm up (20 days)

IOP (25day

s)

Annual workshop

Summary

Annual Implementation Plan

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25/8

1/8

15/7

20/9

Intensive Operation

Period

Final Demonstration (68 days)

Local champions on

duty only

Local champions on

duty only

7/7

2nd training

workshop

Schedule of the 2008 Forecast Demonstration

25/6

Warm up (20 days)

Rea

l tim

e d

ata

star

ted

Sys

tem

fro

zen

System update

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Real time verificationSevere weather

Individual product

Storm track

PoP

QPF

reflectivity

1) Products for meteorologists

Totally, 179 forecasts were issued through the blog of the FDP web during the demo.

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16 experts of the B08FDP on duty at BMB

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Some B08FDP products (warning, precipitation forecast, storm track,

etc.) will be put on Beijing Olympic weather

services webpage for public

2) Products for public

Training 120 volunteers to use and feedback

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Survey to decision-makers

B08FDP contributed to the improved satisfaction of end-users on the nowcasting service

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Benefits for CMA/BMB

• Successful and supportive nowcasting technology transfer for Beijing Olympics

• Enhanced use of OBS in nowcasting– Improvements in the infrastructure (e.g., radar

synchronization, inter-radar calibration)– Efficient data framework (e.g., nowcast data format

standards established)– Efficient and effective use of high resolution

observation network

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• New Concepts, new strategy:– Verification:

• spatial verification, real-time verification…– Impact studies

• Extensive surveys conducted with different end users of nowcasting products

• Implementation of user-oriented service strategy• Improving public understanding on nowcasting

• Knowledge transfer – 2010: Shanghai EXPO, Guangzhou 16th Asian Games– 2011: Shenzhen 26th Summer Universiade

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Benefits for all participants

• Developments of new approaches to nowcasting – Severe weather and precipitation nowcasting

diagnostics – Blending extrapolation of radar echoes with NWP

products – Ensemble and probability based nowcasts– Convective initiation and effective use of the human – Real-time verification

• Inter-comparison of nowcasting algorithms

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• Advanced end-to-end nowcast weather service: a prototype for future – Forecast processes that enabled effective use of the

nowcast systems without overloading the forecasters– Successful technology transfer to operations (e.g., training

sessions, mentoring and interaction with experts)– Production of guidance products for a variety of users

(internal and external)– Effective interaction with decision maker

• Good Dataset for future researches

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A shared and articulated vision, along with a common set of goals and objectives clearly defined

Strong leadership, careful project management, effective communication, and follow up of tasks

Actively and fully engaged local organization in the collaborative integration and advanced system design, being eager to adapt and accept new technology

Actively committed experts from participating organizations to the project

Sufficient resources for the project

Keys for a successful FDP

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Acknowledgement for all B08FDP international participants

Thanks for your attention

the beijing 08 forecast demonstration project and urban prediction needs in china

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