The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce:

A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE

John SargentSenior Policy Analyst

U.S. Department of Commerce

Alarm Bells…• “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…”

– Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET)

• “There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap between the nation’s growing need for scientists, engineers, and other technically skilled workers, and its production of them.”

– The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST)

• “… U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics and engineering is not being met.”

– Hart-Rudman Commission

• "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists."

– ITAA president Harris Miller

• "We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our prosperity ...."

– American Scientist magazine, 2001

• “a serious deficit of scientists and engineers” resulting in “an evaporating dominance.”

– Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001

Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth Rates

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Electrical/Electronic

Civil

Aerospace

Engineers, n.e.c.

Industrial

Mechanical

Metallurgical/Materials

Nuclear

Petroleum

Chemical

Marine

Mining

Agricultural

EngineeringAverage Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Computer Sys Analysts/Scientists

Atmospheric/Space Scientists

Medical scientists

Computer Programmers

Chemists

Biological/Life Scientists

Geologists/Geodesists

Forestry/Conservation

Mathematical Scientists

Agricultural/Food Scientists

Physical Scientists, n.e.c.

Physicists/Astronomers

Physical/Life/Computer Sciences and Mathematics

Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data

Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Computer Systems Analysts & ScientistsElectrical/Electronic Engineers

Computer ProgrammersCivil Engineers

Medical ScientistsChemists

Biological/Life ScientistsAerospace Engineers

Engineers, n.e.c.Atmospheric/Space

Industrial EngineersGeologists/Geodesists

Forestry/Conservation ScientistsMathematical Scientists, n.e.c.

Agricultural EngineersNuclear Engineers

Agricultural/Food ScientistsMetallurgical/Materials Engineers

Petroleum EngineersMining Engineers

Physical Scientists, n.e.c.Physicists/Astronomers

Marine EngineersMechanical Engineer

Chemical Engineers

Employment Growth in S&E Occupations1996-2001, in thousands

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data

Salary Growth

Annual Average Salary Increases, 1995-2000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Computer Programmers

Computer Systems Analysts and Scientists

Medical Scientists

Biological/Life Scientists

Chemists

Industrial

Chemical

Engineers, n.e.c.

Electrical/Eelectronic

Civil

Mechanical

Aerospace

All Workers

En

gin

eers

Sci

enti

sts

IT W

ork

ers

All

SOURCE: Department of Commerce analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Current Population Survey (Annual Averages) data

Unemployment Rates

Average Annual Unemployment Engineers, IT Workers, Professional Specialties

1983-2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Percent

EngineersComputer system analysts and scientistsComputer programmersProfessional specialities

NOTE: The labor force and unemployed reported above include only the experienced unemployed, classif ied by the occupation of their last job. Computer system analysts and scientists includes computer analyst, computer scientist, computer-systems planning, computer-systems analyst, data processing consultant, information scientist, softw are specialist, and other occupations. Computer system analysts and scientists are classif ied w ithin professional specialty occupations and computer programmers in technicians and related support occupations. Data for 2000-2002 have been revised to incorporate population controls from Census 2000.

Projected Growth in S&E Occupations

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

InformationTechnology

Mathematicians Engineers Life Scientists PhysicalScientists

New Jobs

Total Job Openings Due toGrow th and Net Replacements

Projected S&E Occupational Growth2000-2010

Source: Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational 2000-2010 projections

Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)

2000-2010

Information Technology

Engineers

Physical Scientists

Life Scientists

S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

Life Sciences Up...

...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down

-50%

0%

50%

100%

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

Psychology

Social Sciences

Physical Sciences

Engineering

Computer Science/Mathematics

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees…Half Empty or Half Full?

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

1985 1990 1995 2000

A 23 percent decline

since 1985…

…or a 53 percent increase since 1976?

Both, depending on your perspective…

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998

The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs. Projected Job Openings

Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Engineering Physical Sciences Mathematical/Computer Sciences

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Off ice of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000-2010 projections

EngineeringDegrees & Projected Job Openings

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Aero-/Astronautical

Chemical Civil Electrical* Industrial Mechanical Materials/Metallurgy**

Other

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

* Occupations include Electrical, Electronics, Computer Hardware Engineers** There are an additional 400 jobs per year for Material Scientists (not shown here; included in the "Other Physical Sciences" category)SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average J ob Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000-2010 projections

Physical SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Physics and Astronomy Chemistry Earth, Atmosphericand Oceanographic

Other Physical Science

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average J ob Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000-2010 projections

Mathematics and Computer ScienceDegrees & Projected Job Openings

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Mathematics Computer science

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average J ob Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000-2010 projections

Biological and Agricultural SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Agricultural science Biological science

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average J ob Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000-2010 projections

IT Education & Training LandscapeHow IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills• IT Bachelor’s Degrees• IT-Related Minors• Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs• IT-Related Masters of Science Programs• Techno MBAs• Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges• IT Certificate Programs• Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions• Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification• Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives• Boot Camps and Seminars• Employer Programs• On-Line, CD-ROM, Books• The Churn

Professional-level IT Workers’ Educational Preparation Largely in the Sciences, Engineering

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Professional Level ITWorkers

IT Degrees, including:Computer & information sciences, generalComputer scienceComputer systems analysisInformation services and systemsOther computer and information sciencesComputer and systems engineeringComputer programming

Engineeringother than Computer and Systems Engineering

Natural Sciences

Mathematics

Social Sciences

Business

Other

Of professional level IT workers

who hold bachelor's or higher level

degrees,87.5%

hold degrees in science, math or engineering

Educational Background of Professional-level IT Workers

Possible Niche Areas of Need

• Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges

• Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand

• University Professors in High Demand Disciplines

• Emerging Disciplines

• Converging Disciplines

• Industries with Past Workforce Shocks

Aerospace Engineering Education

Rollercoaster

Aeronautical Engineering Degrees

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Bachelor's

Master's

Doctoral

Challenge to the Community: Analysis

• Conduct In-Depth Quantitative, Qualitative Analysis • Separate Niche, Broad Demand• Identify Unique Challenges

• Industrial• Regional• Occupational• Level of Education

Challenge to the Community:

Action

• Math and Science Education in K-12• Image of Scientists and Engineers• S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary

Institutions• Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness

to Market Demands• Industry Must Help Itself

Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

Registered Time from Baccalaureate to Doctoratefor Physical Sciences, Engineering, and Life Sciences, 2001

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Physical Sciences* Engineering Life Sciences Law School MBA

(ye

ars

)

Median Age

30.6Median Age

31.2Median Age

31.8

Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

• Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business• Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education

• Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1)• Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoring—direct and through

contract)• Significantly lower salary costs• Pools of well-educated S&E talent• Improved national infrastructure, political stability

• Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D

Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Grow Domestic S&E Workforce

• Premier Academic Research Institutions• Elite Students Among Best in World• Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners

in S&E Education and Training• Money Talks!

Contact Information

John F. SargentSenior Policy Analyst

Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration

U.S. Department of Commerce202-482-6185

jsargent@ta.doc.govwww.ta.doc.gov

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded, by Gender

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Women

Men

U.S. Population Projections: Gender

Steady Growth for Males and Females Through 2100

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Females

Males

Source: Population Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233, http://w w w .census.gov/population/w w w /projections/natsum-T3.html

Projection Number of U.S. 18-to-24 Year-OldsBy Gender, 2001-2100

Average Annual Growth of 0.6 percent.

S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by GenderBachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of

All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That GenderBy Gender 2000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Engineering ComputerSciences

Earth, Atmos.& OceanSciences

PhysicalSciences

Mathematics SocialSciences

BiologicalSciences

Psychology

Men

Women5.2:1

3.4:1

2.0:1

1.9:1 1.5:1

1.1:1

1.1:1

1:2.4

Women’s Share of MEPS Bachelor’s Degrees Growing, Still Comparatively Low

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000

Women

Men

Share of Bachelor's Degrees in Physical Sciences, Engineering, Computer Science, Mathematics

by Gender, 1966-2000

Share of Bachelor’s Degrees in Each Field Earned by Women, 2000

Percentage of All Degrees Awarded in Each Field Earned by Women2000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Social Sciences

Psychology

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

Earth, Atmos. & Ocean Sciences

Math

Computer Science

Physical Sciences

Engineering

Total S&E

Non-S&E Fields

All Fields

Underrepresented Minorities’ Share of Total U.S. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000

(Per

cen

t, B

lack

s an

d H

isp

anic

s)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

(Percen

t, Native A

merican

s)

Underrepresented Minorities' Share of Total U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor's Degrees

Citizens and Permanent Residents, 1991-2000

S&E Bachelor’s DegreesSelection Rates, by Race

Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines

As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That GroupBy Race, 2000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Engineering Physical Science Mathematics Computer Science Biological Science

White, non-Hispanics

Asians/Pacific Islanders

Black, non-Hispanics

Hispanics

American Indians or Alaskan Natives

U.S. Population Projections: Numbers By Race, Ethnicity

Sharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Increase in Blacks; Whites, American Indians

Constant

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

(in

th

ou

san

ds)

White, non-HispanicBlack, non-HispanicAmerican Indian, non-HispanicAsian/P acific Islander, non-HispanicHispanic

Projected Number of U.S. 18-to-24 Year-OldsBy Race/Ethnicity, 2001-2100

Source: Population Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233, http://w w w .census.gov/population/w w w /projections/natsum-T3.html

U.S. Population Projections: Racial and Ethnic Composition

Steep Decline in Percentage of Whites; Sharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Decline

in Blacks; American Indians Constant

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

White, non-Hispanic

Black, non-Hispanic

American Indian, non-Hispanic

Asian/P acific Islander, non-Hispanic

Hispanic

Projected Racial Ethinic Composition of 18-24 Year-Olds 2001-2100

Source: Population Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233, http://w w w .census.gov/population/w w w /projections/natsum-T3.html

Strong correlation between Federal R&D investments in MEPS and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1955 1960 1965 1975 1985 19951970 1980 1990 2000

Dollars

Students

Year

Fede

ral R

&D

, $M

, no

n-bi

omed

ical

(con

stan

t 19

96 d

olla

rs)

Bac

helo

r’s

Deg

rees

in P

hysi

cal S

cien

ces,

Mat

h, E

ngin

eeri

ng

y = 21064 + 1.029x R 2= 0.953

1953-1968

90,000

80,000

30,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

10 20 30 40 50 60

40 45 50 55 60 65 70

y = -13561 + 2.4612x R2= 0.83663

1970-1998

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Federal R&D, Non-Biomedicalconstant (1996)B$

Federal R&D, Non-Biomedicalconstant (1996)B$

Offshoring: IT on Leading Edge

• IT Applications• Computer Chip

Design• Help Desk• Software

Engineering• Software Design• Programming

• IT Hardware Systems Integration

• Software Systems Integration

• E-commerce• Supply-Chain

Management• Data Mining

IT Not Alone• Home Loan

Processing• Radiology• Insurance Claim

Processing• Scientific Information

Research• Accounting• Financial Analysis• Engineering Design

• Product Design• Employee Benefits• Tax Accounting• Architectural Work• R&D• Airline Reservation

and Customer Service

• Credit Card/Loan Processing

Where is the Work Going?

•India•China

• Russia• Poland• Mexico• Czech Republic• Poland• Philippines• Hungary• Costa Rica• Brazil

Factors Driving Interest in Offshoring

Globally competitive environment, market financial expectations…

•Cost• Business Climate

• Less Regulation• Fewer Torts

• Round the Clock Operations• Focus on Core Competencies

Media-reported Salary Comparisons

• U.S. IT Workers• $70-$100 per hour

• U.S. Programmers• $1,600-$3,600 per mo.

• U.S. Project Managers• $3,600-$7,100 per mo.

• U.S. Architects• $65 per hour

• U.S. Engineers• $90,000 per year

• IT Workers in India• $20 per hour

• Programmers in the Philippines• $250-$700 per mo.

• Project Managers in the Philippines• $700-$1,150 per mo.

• Architects in Hungary• $18 per hour

• Engineers in the Philippines• $13,000 per year

Here… AND …There