thailand company focus jasmine broadband internet...
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ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed: CK / sa: CS
BUYBUYBUYBUY (Initiating Coverage)
Last Traded Price: Last Traded Price: Last Traded Price: Last Traded Price: Bt9.05 (SETSETSETSET : : : : 1,416.00) Price Target :Price Target :Price Target :Price Target : Bt10.90 (20% upside)
Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Strong quarterly results and dividends Analyst Wasu MATTANAPOTCHANART +66 2657 7826 [email protected]
Price Relative
Forecasts and Valuation FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec ((((BtBtBtBtmmmm) ) ) ) 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016FFFF 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF
Revenue 4,377 5,457 5,829 5,940 EBITDA 4,126 5,004 5,346 5,447 Pre-tax Profit 4,729 5,016 5,370 5,471 Net Profit 4,729 5,016 5,370 5,471 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 4,088 5,016 5,370 5,471 EPS (Bt) 0.86 0.91 0.98 0.99 EPS Pre Ex. (Bt) 0.74 0.91 0.98 0.99 EPS Gth (%) nm 6 7 2 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) nm 23 7 2 Diluted EPS (Bt) 0.86 0.91 0.98 0.99 Net DPS (Bt) 0.82 0.95 1.00 0.99 BV Per Share (Bt) 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 PE (X) 10.5 9.9 9.3 9.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 21.0 17.0 14.6 14.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 42.2 5.6 9.3 9.1 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.5 9.6 9.0 8.9 Net Div Yield (%) 9.1 10.5 11.0 11.0 P/Book Value (X) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) N/A 8.9 9.5 9.7 Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS (Bt):::: 0.92 1.01 1.04 Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs: B: 4 S: 1 H: 1 ICB IndustryICB IndustryICB IndustryICB Industry : Technology ICB Sector: ICB Sector: ICB Sector: ICB Sector: Software & Computer Services Principal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business: JASIF has investments in network of fibre optic components (FOC).
Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P
At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 5,500
Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 49,775 / 1,429
Major Shareholders (%)
JAS (%) 33.3
BBL (%) 9.1
State Street Bank And Trust Company (%) 7.9
Free Float (%) 45.9
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 4.3
DBS Group Research . Equity
20 Apr 2016
Thailand Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund Bloomberg: JASIF TB | Reuters: JASIFu.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Mispricing due to perceived risk • Fibre optic cable lessor that offers 11% yield
• New fibre injection to support FY16-17F growth
• Concerns on JASMBB’s 4G default has broadened the
valuation discount to 37% against DIF
• Initiate with BUY and DCF-based TP of Bt10.90
FOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldssss. . . . Jasmine Broadband Infrastructure
Fund (JASIF) was founded on 10 Feb 2015 with 800k core km of fibre
optic cable (FOC) at IPO. Triple T Broadband (TTB), the second largest
fixed-broadband player in Thailand, has agreed to lease 100% of the
network until 22 Feb 2026, thus JASIF’s income is highly secured.
New fibre injection to support FY16New fibre injection to support FY16New fibre injection to support FY16New fibre injection to support FY16----17F17F17F17F capacitycapacitycapacitycapacity. . . . As part of the IPO
deal, TTB will continue transferring 7,500 core km of FOC per month
to JASIF, which should end FY16F with 973k core km of cable, up
from 883k at end-2015. The new fibre capacity will be coming in
until Feb 2017, leading us to project 23% and 7% earnings growth in
FY16F and FY17F, respectively.
Too much concern on impact of JASMBB’s 4G default. Too much concern on impact of JASMBB’s 4G default. Too much concern on impact of JASMBB’s 4G default. Too much concern on impact of JASMBB’s 4G default. The market
has been overly concerned over two issues and their implications: i)
additional penalty on Jas Mobile Broadband (JASMBB), after its failure
to pay for the 900MHz licence, and ii) the potential revocation of
licences at related businesses (e.g. TTB’s fixed-broadband licence).
We believe that the penalty – to be finalised by NBTC by the end of
Apr – will only affect JASMBB and JAS, the mother company. Also,
TTB is a separate legal entity that has done nothing wrong, so the
outright revocation of the fixed-broadband licence is highly unlikely,
especially when the revocation has not been stated in the pre-auction
document.
We initiate coverage on JASIF with BUY We initiate coverage on JASIF with BUY We initiate coverage on JASIF with BUY We initiate coverage on JASIF with BUY call call call call and TP of Bt10.90and TP of Bt10.90and TP of Bt10.90and TP of Bt10.90, based
on 9.7% WACC and no more rent from 2043 onwards; FOC
networks usually have 30 years of useful life, so there are 26 years left
for JASIF’s network. Although JASIF should be trading at 20-25%
discount to DIF due to the shorter useful life of FOC compared with
towers (c.40 years), JASIF seems to be oversold – as evidenced by its
FY16F EV/EBITDA of 9.9x, or 37% lower than DIF’s 15.6x
87
107
127
147
167
187
207
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.2
10.7
11.2
11.7
Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15
Relative IndexBt
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (LHS)
Relative SET INDEX (RHS)
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
INVESTMENT THESIS
Profile Rationale
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF) was
established on 10 Feb 2015 as a closed-end infrastructure
fund. JASIF raised Bt55bn from its IPO on 16 Feb 2015 to
invest in 980k core km of fibre optic cable (FOC) network;
800k core km FOC obtained at IPO and the rest 180k during
the next two years until Feb 2017.
FOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldFOC lessor that offers lofty yieldssss. The fund bought 800k
core km of fibre optic cable (FOC) network at IPO. As part
of the IPO deal, it has been procuring around 7.5k core km
more each month. Due to the gradual FOC transfer into the
fund, it is expected to have 23% earnings growth in FY16F
(10.7% yield) and 7% earnings growth in FY17F (11.2%
yield).
Highly secured streams of incomeHighly secured streams of incomeHighly secured streams of incomeHighly secured streams of income. JAS’s subsidiary, Triple
Three Broadband (TTB), has contractually agreed to lease
100% of the network until 22 Feb 2026.
Valuation Risks
We have a DCF-based TP of Bt10.90 (WACC: 9.7%, no
more rent from 2043 onwards). With 21% upside to our TP
and an 10.6% yield, we recommend a BUY on JASIF.
Although we believe that JASIF should trade at 20-25%
discount to DIF due to the shorter useful life of FOC
compared to towers and JASIF’s rental rate uncertainty after
Feb 2026, JASIF seems to be oversold – as evidenced by its
FY16F EV/EBITDA of 9.9x, or 37% lower than DIF’s 15.6x.
Lingering issues around JASMBB’s debacle could weigh on Lingering issues around JASMBB’s debacle could weigh on Lingering issues around JASMBB’s debacle could weigh on Lingering issues around JASMBB’s debacle could weigh on
JASIF’sJASIF’sJASIF’sJASIF’s share price performance. Nevertheless, NBTC plans
to decide the fate of the related businesses, including Digital
TV licence at MONO and fixed-broadband licence at TTB, by
the end of Apr 2016. When the implication of TTB becomes
clear, the overhang on JASIF’s share price should be
removed.
Lower rental rate is a longLower rental rate is a longLower rental rate is a longLower rental rate is a long----term risk term risk term risk term risk
When JASIF renews its lease contract with TTB, we expect
the rental rate to drop by 12% in 2027 as part of the asset
portfolio (20% of the FOC network) has a lofty monthly
rental rate of Bt750 per core km in 2016 (inflation-adjusted
annually). We believe the high rate could not be maintained
when the contract expires in 2026. If the rate drops more
than the expected 12%, our valuation could be negatively
impacted.
Source: DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
SWOT Analysis
StrengthsStrengthsStrengthsStrengths WeaknessWeaknessWeaknessWeakness
• Secured streams of income from Triple T Broadband (TTB), the sole lessee, for the next 10 years (until 22 Feb 2026).
• Freehold asset with an estimated remaining useful life of 26 years.
• TTB is a strong fixed-broadband player, the number two player in terms of subscriber share, in a growing market.
• Sole reliance on TTB’s business and its ability to pay rent • Possible reduction of rental rate and/or occupancy rates when the existing agreements expire on 22 Feb 2026
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities ThreatsThreatsThreatsThreats
• Future asset injections from TTB and other operators
• Competition in the fixed-broadband market that might hinder TTB’s business
• FOC network open for leasing at Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund (DIF)
• Technological advancements in the field of fixed-broadband network
Source: DBS Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Company Background
• Corporate History.Corporate History.Corporate History.Corporate History. Jasmine Broadband Internet
Infrastructure Fund (JASIF), the second-largest infrastructure
fund in Thailand after DIF, raised Bt55bn at IPO and invested
in fibre optic cable (FOC) that had been developed and
managed by Triple T Broadband (TTB), a wholly-owned
subsidiary of SET-listed Jasmine International (JAS). The fund
then agreed to lease the network back to TTB, the fixed-
broadband operator, until 22 Feb 2026. JASIF’s FOC network
of 883,000 core km (as of 31 Dec 2015) has a nationwide
coverage of 10.23m home passes.
• RevRevRevRevenue structureenue structureenue structureenue structure.... TTB has committed to using 100% of
JASIF’s capacity since the latter’s IPO. Eighty percent of the
network capacity will be leased at the wholesale rate of
Bt425 per core km per month while the rest 20% will be
leased at the retail rate of Bt750 per month. Both agreements
will last until TTB’s fixed-broadband licence expires on 22 Feb
2026. The rental rates for both contracts are inflation-
adjusted (Thailand CPI), but the adjustment has to be in the
range of 0 and 3%.
• Shareholding structurShareholding structurShareholding structurShareholding structure.e.e.e. JAS is the sponsor of JASIF and a
major shareholder of TTB, which transferred the FOC to
JASIF. JAS is required to hold a minimum of 33.3% of JASIF
shares for three years, and this moratorium ends in Feb 2018.
The shareholding threshold will then be reduced to 19% in
the following three years. Mr. Pete Bhodaramik, who holds
25.85% of JAS, now holds 0.7% of JASIF.
• Infrastructure fund structure.Infrastructure fund structure.Infrastructure fund structure.Infrastructure fund structure. Infrastructure fund is a type
of mutual fund established to mobilise funds from general
and institutional investors to invest in Thailand’s infrastructure
projects, which include, but not limited to, rail transit
systems, water, airports and telecommunications. Investments
are recognised as costs and will be presented at fair value
without depreciation and amortisation. The SEC stipulates
that the dividend payout ratio shall not be less than 90% of
the distributable income, with the withholding tax on
dividends being exempted for 10 years. Also, infrastructure
funds have no corporate tax liability, as they are exempted
from corporate income tax in Thailand.
Sales Trend Profitability Trend
Source: JASIF, DBS Vickers
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Bt m
Total Revenue Revenue Growth (%) (YoY)
4,125
4,325
4,525
4,725
4,925
5,125
5,325
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Bt m
Operating EBIT Pre tax Profit Net Profit
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Main Lease Agreement and Rental Assurance Agreement
Length of Leased OFCsLength of Leased OFCsLength of Leased OFCsLength of Leased OFCs Lease PeriodLease PeriodLease PeriodLease Period Rental RateRental RateRental RateRental Rate
Main Lease Main Lease Main Lease Main Lease
AgreementAgreementAgreementAgreement
80% of the FOC80% of the FOC80% of the FOC80% of the FOC, , , , totallingtotallingtotallingtotalling
approximately 784,000 core approximately 784,000 core approximately 784,000 core approximately 784,000 core
kilometrkilometrkilometrkilometreeees, includs, includs, includs, includeseseses::::
1.1.1.1. 640,000 core 640,000 core 640,000 core 640,000 core kilometreskilometreskilometreskilometres
which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to
80% of the Existing 80% of the Existing 80% of the Existing 80% of the Existing
OFCs; andOFCs; andOFCs; andOFCs; and
2.2.2.2. 144,000 core 144,000 core 144,000 core 144,000 core kilometreskilometreskilometreskilometres
which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to
80% of the Future 80% of the Future 80% of the Future 80% of the Future FOCFOCFOCFOC
Approximately 11 years, Approximately 11 years, Approximately 11 years, Approximately 11 years,
ending February 22, 2026ending February 22, 2026ending February 22, 2026ending February 22, 2026
BtBtBtBt425 per core 425 per core 425 per core 425 per core kilometrekilometrekilometrekilometre per month per month per month per month
until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be
increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the
change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by
the Ministry of Commerce with a cap the Ministry of Commerce with a cap the Ministry of Commerce with a cap the Ministry of Commerce with a cap
of 3%of 3%of 3%of 3%
Rental Rental Rental Rental
AssuranceAssuranceAssuranceAssurance
AgreementAgreementAgreementAgreement
20% of the FOC20% of the FOC20% of the FOC20% of the FOC, , , , totallingtotallingtotallingtotalling
approximately 196,000 core approximately 196,000 core approximately 196,000 core approximately 196,000 core
kilometreskilometreskilometreskilometres, includ, includ, includ, includeseseses::::
1.1.1.1. 160,000 core 160,000 core 160,000 core 160,000 core kilometreskilometreskilometreskilometres
which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to
20% of the Existing 20% of the Existing 20% of the Existing 20% of the Existing
OFCs; andOFCs; andOFCs; andOFCs; and
2.2.2.2. 36,000 core 36,000 core 36,000 core 36,000 core kilometreskilometreskilometreskilometres
which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to which are equivalent to
20% of the Future 20% of the Future 20% of the Future 20% of the Future FOCFOCFOCFOC
Three years, renewable Three years, renewable Three years, renewable Three years, renewable at at at at
JASIF's option for additional JASIF's option for additional JASIF's option for additional JASIF's option for additional
threethreethreethree----year periods until the year periods until the year periods until the year periods until the
expiration of the Main Lease expiration of the Main Lease expiration of the Main Lease expiration of the Main Lease
AgreementAgreementAgreementAgreement
BtBtBtBt750 per core 750 per core 750 per core 750 per core kilometrekilometrekilometrekilometre per month per month per month per month
until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be until December 31, 2015 and will be
increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the increased each year in line with the
change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by change in Thailand CPI announced by
the Ministrthe Ministrthe Ministrthe Ministry of Commerce with a cap y of Commerce with a cap y of Commerce with a cap y of Commerce with a cap
of 3%of 3%of 3%of 3%
Source: JASIF, DBC Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
JASIF’s Management Structure
Source: JASIF, DBC Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Competitive Strengths • Secured streams of incomeSecured streams of incomeSecured streams of incomeSecured streams of income.... TTB has contractually agreed
to lease 100% of JASIF’s capacity until 22 Feb 2026, which
coincides with the expiration of TTB’s fixed-broadband licence
(type 3), thus the income streams are highly secured for the
next 10 years.
• Freehold asset with long useful lifFreehold asset with long useful lifFreehold asset with long useful lifFreehold asset with long useful life.e.e.e. We expect TTB to
renew its business licence and continue using JASIF’s FOC
network until 2042 as we assume 30 years of useful life for
fibre optic cable, thus implying 26 years of remaining useful
life. We have discovered a number of prominent estimates for
FOC’s useful life, as follows:
i) The Federal Communications Commission, an
independent agency of the US government, has
assigned a projected life range of 25 to 30 years on all
non-metallic cables, including aerial, underground,
buried or intra-building.
ii) Corning, a leading manufacturer of optical fibre, states
that the intended service life is in excess of 25 years.
iii) Technology Futures, Inc., which provides depreciation
and valuation services for major telecommunication
carriers, recommended in 2008 that the depreciation life
for newly-installed fibre optic cable is 20 to 25 years.
Expected useful life of cable assets
SourceSourceSourceSource Categories as stated in reportsCategories as stated in reportsCategories as stated in reportsCategories as stated in reports Projected Life (Years)Projected Life (Years)Projected Life (Years)Projected Life (Years)
Federal Communication Federal Communication Federal Communication Federal Communication CommissionCommissionCommissionCommission
Aerial Cable - Metallic 20 - 25
Aerial Cable - Non Metallic 25 - 30
Underground Cable - Metallic 25 - 30
Underground Cable - Non Metallic 25 - 30
Buried Cable - Metallic 20 - 26
Buried Cable - Non Metallic 25 - 30
CorningCorningCorningCorning Fibre Optic Cables in General > 25
Technology Futures, IncTechnology Futures, IncTechnology Futures, IncTechnology Futures, Inc Newly Installed Fibre Optic Cable 20 - 25
Source: Expected Life Study: Telecommunication and Cable Assets by Nevada Department of Taxation, DBC Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
• TTB, the lessee, is a TTB, the lessee, is a TTB, the lessee, is a TTB, the lessee, is a strong player in fixedstrong player in fixedstrong player in fixedstrong player in fixed----broadband broadband broadband broadband
market.market.market.market. TTB is a strong player in a growing industry. The
fixed-broadband market has seen 15% CAGR in the number
of subscribers over the last five years (2010-15) while TTB has
seen 21% CAGR in its clients and revenue over the same
period. The company has been taking market share from
TOT, a state-owned telecom, and smaller players; TTB
overtook TOT in 2014 as the number-two player in terms of
number of subscribers while the number one, TRUE, remains
strong. TRUE, TTB and TOT are the leading players with 37%,
31% and 21% market shares, respectively. AIS Wifi, a
subsidiary of ADVANC, had 0.7% market share (44k
subscribers) at the end of 2015 while the rest 9.6% is from
other small players.
• Thailand is slightly behind the Thailand is slightly behind the Thailand is slightly behind the Thailand is slightly behind the world in termworld in termworld in termworld in termssss of fixedof fixedof fixedof fixed----
broadband subscription.broadband subscription.broadband subscription.broadband subscription. Thailand had 6.4m fixed-broadband
subscribers (9.5% of population) at the end of 2015, and the
Office of The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications
Commission (NBTC) forecasts that the number will rise to
6.70m (9.9% of population) in 2016 and 7.23m (10.7% of
population) in 2017. The global fixed-broadband penetration
is now 10.84% of population, with Europe (29.60%) and the
Americas (17.97%) leading the pack.
Fixed-Broadband Market: Number of Subscribers Triple T Broadband: Number of Subscribers
Fixed-Broadband Market Shares By Number Of Subscribers
Estimated Fixed-Broadband Penetration (% Of Population)
Source: NBTC, JASIF, DBC Vickers
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Growth Strategies • Gradual FOC transfers to boost FY16Gradual FOC transfers to boost FY16Gradual FOC transfers to boost FY16Gradual FOC transfers to boost FY16----17F growth17F growth17F growth17F growth.... TTB is
obligated to continue transferring 7,500 core km of FOC per
month to JASIF; as a result, the fund should end FY16F with
973k core km of cable, up from 883k at end-2015 and 800k
at IPO. The new fibre capacity will be coming in until Feb
2017, leading us to project 23% and 7% earnings growth in
FY16F and FY17F, respectively.
• Growth after FY17F depends on increase in rental rateGrowth after FY17F depends on increase in rental rateGrowth after FY17F depends on increase in rental rateGrowth after FY17F depends on increase in rental rate....
With no new asset injections, we expect net investment
income to grow only 1.9% in FY18F and 1.5% p.a. from
FY19F onwards. Although we assume the rental increase of
only 1.5% per year, the increase is, in fact, tied to the change
in Thailand’s CPI with a floor/ceiling of 0/3%.
• Willing to buy all kinds of telecom infrastructure.Willing to buy all kinds of telecom infrastructure.Willing to buy all kinds of telecom infrastructure.Willing to buy all kinds of telecom infrastructure. The
fund is open to new investments in any kind of
telecommunications infrastructure, so new asset injections
with strong yields and IRR could offer positive surprises down
the road. Preliminarily, JASIF requires a project IRR of no less
than 8%.
FOC at Yearend Main Assumptions
2016F 2016F 2016F 2016F 2017F 2017F 2017F 2017F 2018F 2018F 2018F 2018F
FOC (core km) 973,000 980,500 980,500
Increase in rental rate
0.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Occupancy rate 100% 100% 100%
Net Investment Income Yield (Dividend + Capital Reduction)
Source: JASIF, DBC Vickers
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Key Risks
• TTB’s licenTTB’s licenTTB’s licenTTB’s licencccce renewal in 2026e renewal in 2026e renewal in 2026e renewal in 2026.... JAS Mobile Broadband
(JASMBB) won a 900MHz licence in Dec 2015, but it failed to
show up with the first instalment payment and the required
bank guarantee before the 31 Mar 2016 deadline.
Consequently, the market has been concerned over two
issues and their impact on JASIF:
i) Additional monetary penalties for JASMBB, and
ii) The potential revocation of JAS’s existing licences (i.e.
TTB’s fixed-broadband licence)
Firstly, the regulator, NBTC, has stated in its pre-auction
document that it will withhold the Bt644m down payment for
the 900MHz licence in the event of default, and there is no
other penalty. Hence, NBTC will have to sue JASMBB to obtain
additional penalty – if any. Secondly, TTB is a separate legal
entity that has done nothing wrong as a licence holder, so the
outright revocation of the fixed-broadband licence (expiring
on 22 Feb 2026) is highly unlikely, especially when the
revocation has not been stated in the pre-auction documents.
NBTC will decide whether to slap more penalties on JASMBB
and/or JAS group within this month.
• Lower rental rate Lower rental rate Lower rental rate Lower rental rate after 2026.after 2026.after 2026.after 2026. As mentioned earlier, TTB
has committed to leasing JASIF’s asset until 22 Feb 2026, so
there is a risk of lower income when the rental contracts have
to be renewed. We currently assume 21% y-o-y decline in
rental income in 2026 on the back of the 12% fall in rental
rate and lower occupancy rate. The occupancy rate is
projected to fall from 100% in 2025 to 90% in 2026, before
reaching 80% in 2031.
• FOC relocation costFOC relocation costFOC relocation costFOC relocation cost and duct rentand duct rentand duct rentand duct rent. JASIF could be
responsible for the relocation cost from aerial cable to
underground cable in compliance with the government
policy. Currently, the underground project – Nonsee Phase I –
to be up for bidding in Apr this year includes only electricity
cable (no fibre optic). According to the telco companies we
have talked to, it might take 2-3 years before the relocation
process of fibre starts because the Bangkok Metropolitan
Administration (BMA) has not figured out which parties will
be responsible for the installation of underground duct that
the fibre will go through; the installer will be also be the
lessor of the ducts. The investment in ducts could be made by
the state enterprises (CAT or TOT) or a joint investment
initiative between public and private companies.
Rental Income 2024-28F Rental Rate 2024-28F
Occupancy Rate 2024-28F
Source: JASIF, DBC Vickers
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Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Valuation and Recommendation
• Capital management.Capital management.Capital management.Capital management. At IPO, JASIF received from TTB an
advance payment for the last three months of rent ending 22
Feb 2026. Management intends to eliminate such excess
liquidity via capital reduction, resulting in 111% (Bt0.82),
104% (Bt0.95) and 102% (Bt1.00) distribution payout ratios
in FY15, FY16F and FY17F, respectively.
• Initiate with BUY.Initiate with BUY.Initiate with BUY.Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on JASIF with a
BUY call and DCF-based target price of Bt10.9 (9.7% WACC
and no more rent from 2043 onwards). We like JASIF for i) its
strong earnings growth in FY16-17F, ii) steady streams of
dividends, iii) FY16F net-cash position, and iv) TTB’s dominant
position in the fixed-broadband market. Deeper fixed-
broadband penetration and TTB’s earnings growth will also
ensure its ability to pay rent to JASIF.
• ValuationValuationValuationValuation. Our base-case DCF valuation of Bt10.90 is
based on 9.7% WACC and no more rent from 2043 onwards
as we assume 26 years’ remaining useful life for its FOC
network. Since the rental contracts will have to be renewed
in 2026, we assume a 21% decrease in rental income for the
year before rising 1.5% p.a. until 2042, in line with the
projected inflation.
Our best-case scenario points to Bt12.20 TP, assuming
uninterrupted increases in rental income until 2042. The
worst-case TP is Bt7.70 if we assume that TTB cannot renew
the lease contracts in 2026, which is highly likely for the
dominant fixed-broadband player.
Capital Reduction from Advance Rent of Bt816m WACC Calculation
To be paid in To be paid in To be paid in To be paid in 2015201520152015 2016201620162016 2017201720172017 2018201820182018
Btm 461 225 130 0 Resulting dividend payout ratio 111% 104% 102% 100%
Resulting yield 9.6% 11.1% 11.7% 11.6%
WACC CalculationWACC CalculationWACC CalculationWACC Calculation
Beta 0.744
Rf 3.0%
Rm 12.0%
Cost of Equity 9.7%
Equity weight 100%
WACCWACCWACCWACC 9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%
Scenario Analysis
Time PeriodTime PeriodTime PeriodTime Period Base CaseBase CaseBase CaseBase Case Best CaseBest CaseBest CaseBest Case Worst CaseWorst CaseWorst CaseWorst Case
Occupancy RateOccupancy RateOccupancy RateOccupancy Rate
2016 2016 2016 2016 ---- 2025202520252025 100% 100% 100%
2026 2026 2026 2026 ---- 2042204220422042 declining to 80%
by 2031 100% 0%
2043 onward2043 onward2043 onward2043 onward [NO MORE RENT BY TTB]
Increase in Rental Rate per YearIncrease in Rental Rate per YearIncrease in Rental Rate per YearIncrease in Rental Rate per Year
2016 2016 2016 2016 ---- 2025202520252025 1.5% 1.50% 1.50%
2026 2026 2026 2026 ---- 2042204220422042 0.7% 1.50% NO RENT
2043 onward2043 onward2043 onward2043 onward [NO MORE RENT BY TTB]
Salvage value at endSalvage value at endSalvage value at endSalvage value at end----2042204220422042
0
Target priceTarget priceTarget priceTarget price 10.9010.9010.9010.90 12.20 7.70
Upside/(Downside)Upside/(Downside)Upside/(Downside)Upside/(Downside) 27.5% 42.7% -9.9%
IRR @ Bt8.50 market priceIRR @ Bt8.50 market priceIRR @ Bt8.50 market priceIRR @ Bt8.50 market price 11.6% 13.1% 4.4%
Source: JASIF, DBC Vickers
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 12
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Peer comparison
• ReturnReturnReturnReturn----andandandand----risk profile is similar to DIF’s.risk profile is similar to DIF’s.risk profile is similar to DIF’s.risk profile is similar to DIF’s. JASIF’s only
comparable company in Thailand is Digital
Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund (DIF), but JASIF’s
asset structure is simpler; JASIF has freehold ownership of
FOC network while DIF has the rights to net revenue,
freehold and leasehold ownerships of telecom towers, tower-
to-tower fibre and fixed-broadband FOC. It is worth noting
that DIF’s portfolio mix is superior to JASIF’s, as towers have
longer useful life (c.50 years) than FOC. Nevertheless, both
face similar risks as they will have to renew their lease
contracts in 2026-27.
• JASIF is trading at JASIF is trading at JASIF is trading at JASIF is trading at steepsteepsteepsteep discount to DIF.discount to DIF.discount to DIF.discount to DIF. We believe that
the market has become overly concerned about the impact of
JASMBB’s default on JASIF, resulting in a current valuation of
FY16F EV/EBITDA of 9.9x – representing a 37% discount to
DIF’s EV/EBITDA of 15.6x. We believe that the fair discount
should be around 20% to take into account the longer tower
life for DIF; the 20% discount implies a hypothetical target
price of Bt11.30 per share.
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 13
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Key Assumptions
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 10 Feb 1510 Feb 1510 Feb 1510 Feb 15 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016FFFF 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF
FOC at year end (core km)
800,000 883,000 973,000 980,500 980,500
Increase in rental rate 0% 1.5% 1.5%
Occupancy rate 100% 100% 100%
TTB has been building and transferring FOC to JASIF (c.a. 7.5k core km per month). The transfer will end in Feb 2017
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 14
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Income Statement (Btm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016FFFF 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Revenue 4,377 5,457 5,829 5,940
Cost of Goods Sold (184) (355) (379) (386)
Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 4,1934,1934,1934,193 5,1025,1025,1025,102 5,4515,4515,4515,451 5,5545,5545,5545,554
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (67.4) (98.2) (105) (107)
Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 4,1264,1264,1264,126 5,0045,0045,0045,004 5,3465,3465,3465,346 5,4475,4475,4475,447
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (37.8) 12.6 24.4 24.4
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 641 0.0 0.0 0.0
PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 4,7294,7294,7294,729 5,0165,0165,0165,016 5,3705,3705,3705,370 5,4715,4715,4715,471
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 4,7294,7294,7294,729 5,0165,0165,0165,016 5,3705,3705,3705,370 5,4715,4715,4715,471
Net Profit before Except. 4,088 5,016 5,370 5,471
EBITDA 4,126 5,004 5,346 5,447
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) N/A 24.7 6.8 1.9
EBITDA Gth (%) nm 21.3 6.8 1.9
Opg Profit Gth (%) nm 21.3 6.8 1.9
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%)
nm 23.7 16.1 3.9
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 95.8 93.5 93.5 93.5
Opg Profit Margin (%) 94.3 91.7 91.7 91.7
Net Profit Margin (%) 108.0 91.9 92.1 92.1
ROAE (%) N/A 8.9 9.5 9.7
ROA (%) N/A 8.4 9.4 9.6
ROCE (%) N/A 8.7 9.5 9.7
Div Payout Ratio (%) 95.8 104.5 102.4 100.0
Net Interest Cover (x) 109.3 NM NM NM
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Margins Trend
87.0%
92.0%
97.0%
102.0%
107.0%
112.0%
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %
JASIF started booking revenue from 10 Feb 2015 with 800,000 core km at the IPO.
The gradual transfer of FOC will lead to increases in annual income. Revenue growth from FY19F will be purely based on rental hike if there is no new acquisition.
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 15
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Btm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 1Q1Q1Q1Q2015201520152015 2Q2Q2Q2Q2015201520152015 3Q3Q3Q3Q2015201520152015 4Q4Q4Q4Q2015201520152015 Revenue 648 1,210 1,243 1,276
Cost of Goods Sold (28.4) (50.3) (53.1) (52.3)
Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 620620620620 1,1601,1601,1601,160 1,1901,1901,1901,190 1,2241,2241,2241,224
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (9.8) (18.6) (19.3) (19.7)
Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 610610610610 1,1411,1411,1411,141 1,1711,1711,1711,171 1,2041,2041,2041,204
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.04 0.02 0.0 (0.1)
Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (4.6) (10.6) (10.7) (11.8)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.38 (0.2) (0.2) 641
PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 606606606606 1,1301,1301,1301,130 1,1601,1601,1601,160 1,8331,8331,8331,833
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 606606606606 1,1301,1301,1301,130 1,1601,1601,1601,160 1,8331,8331,8331,833
Net profit bef Except. 605 1,130 1,160 1,192
EBITDA 610 1,141 1,171 1,204
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) N/A 86.7 2.7 2.7
EBITDA Gth (%) nm 87.1 2.6 2.9
Opg Profit Gth (%) nm 87.1 2.6 2.9
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%)
nm nm nm nm
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 95.6 95.8 95.7 95.9
Opg Profit Margins (%) 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.4
Net Profit Margins (%) 93.5 93.4 93.3 143.7
Revenue Trend
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
Revenue Revenue Growth % (QoQ)
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 16
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Balance Sheet (Btm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016FFFF 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Net Fixed Assets 55,641 55,641 55,641 55,641
Invts in Associates & JVs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other LT Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash & ST Invts 2,120 1,599 1,543 1,539
Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debtors 1.45 1.45 1.55 1.58
Other Current Assets 3,854 4.00 4.27 4.35
Total AssetsTotal AssetsTotal AssetsTotal Assets 61,61661,61661,61661,616 57,24557,24557,24557,245 57,19057,19057,19057,190 57,18657,18657,18657,186
ST Debt
3,850 0.0 0.0 0.0
Creditor 80.6 145 155 158
Other Current Liab 817 817 817 817
LT Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other LT Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shareholder’s Equity 56,869 56,283 56,218 56,211
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab. 61,61661,61661,61661,616 57,24557,24557,24557,245 57,19057,19057,19057,190 57,18557,18557,18557,185
Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 2,958 (956) (966) (969)
Net Cash/(Debt) (1,730) 1,599 1,543 1,539
Debtors Turn (avg days) N/A 0.1 0.1 0.1
Creditors Turn (avg days) N/A 91.0 113.2 115.9
Inventory Turn (avg days) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Asset Turnover (x) NM 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current Ratio (x) 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6
Quick Ratio (x) 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 CASH CASH CASH
Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 0.0 CASH CASH CASH
Capex to Debt (%) 1,428.6 N/A N/A N/A
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Asset Breakdown
The debt was paid off 1Q16F.
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 17
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
Cash Flow Statement (Btm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016FFFF 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Pre-Tax Profit 4,729 5,016 5,370 5,471
Dep. & Amort. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Wkg.Cap. (2,976) 3,914 9.54 2.82
Other Operating CF (573) 17.1 0.0 0.0
Net Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CF 1,1801,1801,1801,180 8,9488,9488,9488,948 5,3805,3805,3805,380 5,4745,4745,4745,474
Capital Exp.(net) (55,000) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Invts.(net) (1,960) 600 0.0 0.0
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Div from Assoc & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Investing CF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CF (56,960)(56,960)(56,960)(56,960) 600600600600 0.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.0
Div Paid (2,860) (5,602) (5,435) (5,478)
Chg in Gross Debt 3,850 (3,850) 0.0 0.0
Capital Issues 55,000 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Financing CF (66.0) (17.1) 0.0 0.0
Net Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CF 55,92455,92455,92455,924 (9,469)(9,469)(9,469)(9,469) (5,435)(5,435)(5,435)(5,435) (5,478)(5,478)(5,478)(5,478)
Currency Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Cash 144 78.8 (55.8) (4.4)
Opg CFPS (Bt) 0.76 0.92 0.98 0.99
Free CFPS (Bt) (9.8) 1.63 0.98 1.00
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Capital Expenditure
0.0
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Capital Expenditure (-)
Btm
ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 18
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
DBS Vickers recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUYSTRONG BUYSTRONG BUYSTRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY BUY BUY BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLDHOLDHOLDHOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUEDFULLY VALUEDFULLY VALUEDFULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL SELL SELL SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by This report is prepared by This report is prepared by This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co, LtdDBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co, LtdDBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co, LtdDBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co, Ltd. . . . This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers
Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and
no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written
consent of DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co, Ltd.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS
Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively,
the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to
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The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
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ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES
Page 19
Company Focus
Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund
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