technology outlook 2025
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What will the technology landscape look like in your industry over the coming decade? Released once every five years, DNV GL's latest Technology Outlook is out now!TRANSCRIPT
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
TECHNOLOGY
OUTLOOK
2025
It may be hard to believe we’re on the cusp of a technological revolution at a time when the global economy as a whole is slowing. But our view in DNV GL is that we are indeed entering a new ‘renaissance’ in industrial progress with the accelerated uptake of cyber-physical systems.
This publication deals with the probable rather than the possible. Many of the technologies we highlight are familiar; what is new, in our view, is that the coming decade is about the combination of advanced technologies and about implementation – where concepts such as automation, data-driven insights and grid parity acquire real meaning and scale.
The factory of the future will look nothing like those of today: it will be clean and largely empty of people. Additive manufacturing – or 3D printing – is dramatically changing where and how things are made. Spare parts for ships, for example, could be printed out at a port of convenience; conceivably from recycled material as circular economy models become pervasive. The ship of the future itself is rapidly becoming a loating computer, echoing developments in the automotive industry, where family cars today have more computing power than early space shuttles; self-driving vehicles of the future of course will have even more. Where sequencing of a human genome once took years, it is now accomplished in less than a week.
These, and similar dazzling developments in digitalization, are leading many industries and individuals, not least our own customers, to question what the future holds.
Part of the answer, we hope, you will ind in this ‘Technology Outlook 2025’. DNV GL publishes these Outlook reports at ive-year intervals to provide our customers with a basis for discussion and insight into the technology landscape of the next decade within their respective industries.
In many cases technical advances on their own do not translate fast enough into general progress and well-being without better laws and regulations that encourage the uptake and scaling of the technology. Regulations will also have to account for an increasing blend of technologies across physical, biological and digital domains.
History tells us that there is always a lag between the development of breakthrough technology and wide-scale adoption. For example, containerization revolutionized shipping from the 1950s, and yet the steel and machinery technology enabling it predated the irst container ships by half a century.
We at DNV GL feel uniquely positioned to offer a view on the gap between innovation and technology uptake. We are widely involved in the qualiication of new technologies across industries. We set global standards and best practices to advance safety and eficiency in a broad range of technologies and are passionate about collaboration across sectors: our experts drive more joint industry projects in our industries than any other organization.
TECHNOLOGY FOR THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
Our World 2025 04
Technology Innovation Drivers 20
Technology Outlook 38
Shipping 40
Energy 54
Life Sciences 68
Sustainable Oceans 82
Increasingly we are seeing a need for technical services not just at component level, but at the level of systems: across whole transportation chains, across gas value chains or within and across complex power transmission and distribution grids. This is very much part of the technically integrated and interconnected world we are seeing developing around us, where many conventional business models are being dramatically challenged.
Technology Outlook 2025 captures insights from our daily quest to work for a safer, smarter and greener future. We hope that it inspires and proves useful in guiding your future decisions.
Remi Eriksen
GROUP CEO
OU
R W
OR
LD
20
25
Society 06
Economy 10
Geopolitics 14
Environment 16
06 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
SOCIETY
Societal structures are changing at an unprecedented pace as a growing number of populations emerge from poverty, and people live longer, healthier lives, and ind reliable employment. The global population as a whole has never previously enjoyed the kind of access it now has to the same opportunities or earned higher levels of economic wealth per capita.
This rapid societal transformation is fuelled by increasing
global connectedness, technology innovation, and rising
productivity. Over the next decade more than half of the
world’s population will have access to the Internet, and
renewable power generation will accelerate progress
towards the goal of universal access to electricity. But many
megacities will struggle to provide adequate infrastructure
and municipal services to its citizens, even as these same
cities demonstrate leadership on climate change and emerge
as powerful entities on the geopolitical scene.
DEMOGRAPHY: Changes in structure and composition of the global
population.
CITIES: Urbanization places new
demands on cities and their infrastructures.
HEALTH:Healthcare system changes
create both new risks and new opportunities.
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 07
SOCIETY: DEMOGRAPHY
338 322
181313
664 680
525
3,228
105234
32107
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & South America
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2030
2009
Middle class population by region in 2009 and 2030
2030
2015
2000
North America
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
Latin America+ Caribbean
Old age dependency ratio: Number of people aged over 65 per 100 people aged 15-64
19 2233
9 12 18
6 6 7
22 2636
9 11 17
15 18 24
POPULATION GROWTH:
Increasing by more than 80 million
a year, the global population will
reach 8 billion by 2025. Most of
this population growth will occur in
today’s developing countries. While
the average fertility rate in the rest of
the world is converging towards 2,
the fertility rate in Africa is expected
to remain above 4 throughout the
coming decade.
AGEING POPULATION:
Technology and economic growth
enable people to live longer. The
fraction of the global population
aged over 60 years will increase
from 11.7% in 2013 to about 15%
in 2025, reaching more than 20% in
2050. Pensions, healthcare, and the
other needs of the elderly will thus be
provided by a shrinking proportion of
the population.
EMPOWERMENT OF POPULATIONS IN ASIAAND AFRICA:
Education levels in Africa and Asia are
rising, gradually empowering their
populations to seek new employment
and business opportunities. By 2030 it
is expected that China alone will have
more educated people of working
age than Europe and North America
together.
EXPANDING MIDDLE CLASS:
The number of middle class
consumers globally is expected
to grow by 170% by 2030, from
1.8 billion in 2010 to 4.9 billion in
2030, with Asia accounting for 85%
of that growth. India’s middle class
currently represents 5–10% of its
population, but this is projected to
reach 90% by 2050.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013)
Source: Kharas H. and G. Gertz (2010)
08 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION:
Cities play a pivotal role in one
of the fundamental challenges
of our time – enabling economic
growth within the ecological
limits of the Earth. The spreading
geographic and carbon footprint
of cities (urban area expansion
could triple from 2000 to 2030) will
exacerbate climate change, which,
in turn, will challenge the long-term
sustainability of cities.
Europe
North America
Oceania
Asia
Africa
Latin America + Caribbean
0
2011 2030 2050
1
2
3
4
Billion
Rural population
0
2011 2030 2050
1
2
3
4
Billion
Urban population
GROWING URBANISM:
By 2030 there will be 5 billion
people living in cities, up from
3.5 billion in 2010. This means
that 6 out of every 10 people will
be city dwellers. Urban areas in
developing regions will account for
most of this growth.
CITIES SPEARHEADING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
Cities are the main engines of
economic wealth creation, currently
generating around 80% of global
economic output and widening the
gap in wealth and prosperity between
urban and rural populations. This will
become increasingly pronounced
towards 2025. At the same time, many
cities will struggle to provide homes,
services, and infrastructure for their
dramatically expanding populations.
DECLINING SLUM POPULATIONS:
From 1990 to 2012, the urban
population living in slums* declined
from over 1 billion to 863 million.
The United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals, which commit to
continuing the ight against poverty
and to providing safe, inclusive, and
sustainable settlements for all, are
expected to catalyse further signiicant
reductions in slum populations
towards 2025.
SOCIETY: CITIES
”Cities are in a unique position to catalyse wider climate action through leading by example,
partnerships with state and non-state actors, and cooperation with private sector actors and civil
society. For instance, the adoption of a compact, transit-oriented model in the world’s largest 724 cities could reduce GHG emissions up to the equivalent of
1.5 billion tonnes CO2 per year by 2030.”
– New Climate Economy Report, 2014
* UN-Habitat deines urban slum dwellers as, “… individuals residing in housing with one or more of the following conditions: inadequate
drinking water; inadequate sanitation; poor structural quality/durability of housing; over-crowding; and insecurity of tenure”.
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012)
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 09
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2030
Deaths attributed to non-communicable diseases (as % of total number of deaths)
0%
10%
20%
30%
27%
2%3.5%
7.5%
8.5%
12%
18%
28%
32%
52%60%
World
Diabetes
Respiratorydiseases
Heartdiseases
Cancer
Low incomecountries
High incomecountries78% 77%
74%
40%
50%
2000 2030
INCREASING HEALTH EXPENDITURE:
The fraction of global GDP spent on
healthcare will increase sharply in the
coming decades. This is largely driven
by rising healthcare costs in developed
countries, linked to ageing populations,
increased patient expectations, a growing
burden of disease, sub-optimal allocation
of resources, and rising unit costs of care.
CHRONIC DISEASE PANDEMIC:
The number of deaths globally from
chronic non-communicable diseases
(NCDs) is expected to soar as prevalence
in developing countries approaches
the levels currently associated with
developed countries. If current trends
continue, NCDs will kill 55 million
annually by 2030. NCDs include heart
diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory
diseases, and diabetes.
PERSONALIZATION OF HEALTHCARE:
By 2025, healthcare will be considerably more
tailored to the individual proile of patients,
the majority of whom will meet their doctors
informed and empowered by online sources
and apps. Increased health literacy, and a
growing spectrum of technology assisting
in personalization of healthcare will enable
earlier intervention and health coaching.
GROWTH IN RESISTANCE TO ANTIBIOTICS:
Antibiotic resistance is one of the
predominant public health concerns of
the 21st century, and yet efforts to develop
new antibiotics since the 1980s have
been lacklustre at best. However, the tide
is turning, and, towards 2025, the World
Health Organization will increasingly stress
the need for collaborative efforts between
governments, hospitals, and pharmaceutical
companies to address this challenge.
SOCIETY: HEALTH
“Antibiotic resistance is no longer a prediction for the future, it is happening right now in every region of the world
and has the potential to affect anyone, of any age, in any country. A post-antibiotic
era – in which common infections and minor injuries can kill – is a very real
possibility for the 21st century.”
– WHO, June 2014
So
urc
e:
Eu
rop
ea
n E
nvi
ron
me
nta
l Ag
en
cy (
20
14
)
10 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
ECONOMY
ECONOMY:Global economy showing
signs of slowing down.
TRADE PATTERNS:Global value chains trigger
changing trade patterns.
NATURAL RESOURCES:A consumption peak of non-renewable natural resources
by 2025?
Even as the global economy adds impressively to per capita wealth, inequality will deepen, and natural resource constraints will start to make an impact. We will see the irst signiicant shift from a fossil fuel-powered economy towards an era where the world is increasingly powered by renewable energy. This will be an era where more emphasis is placed on energy and resource eficiency, and where policy mechanisms are increasingly used to motivate recycling and circular designs. India will experience extraordinarily strong growth over the
next decade and will rival Japan as the world’s third largest
economy by 2025. China may challenge the USA as the
number one largest economy.
Others in the top 10 by economic size will probably be
Germany, France, the UK, Russia, Brazil, - with the 10th
position occupied by either Italy, South Korea, Indonesia,
Mexico, or Turkey.
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 11
CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH:
Global GDP per capita will increase by
more than 50% over the years 2010–
2030 (in PPP adjusted 2005 USD), with
non-OECD countries contributing
most of that growth. But the pace of
global economic growth is expected
to decelerate steadily over this period.
RISING INEQUALITY:
More than 70% of the global
population resides in countries with
increasing inequality. This trend is
set to continue, and will heighten
the potential for social and political
instability in many developed
countries. Income inequalities are also
expected to persist between rural and
urban areas, and between women and
men.
GROWING PUBLIC DEBT:
The accumulated global net public
debt is expected to approach or
surpass global GDP by 2035. This
will put severe constraints on policy
options, and affect the capacity of
governments to respond to major
social, economic, and environmental
challenges.
ECONOMY: TRENDS
2-3%
3-5%
5-7%
2030
2010
1-2%
43 53
10 17
28 37
2 4
510
38
7
24
14
35
3450
35 49
USA
CAN
AUS
EU
NAF
SAM
SSA
IND
CHN
RUS
GDP growth PPP in 2030 (blue shading) and GDP per capita PPP in thousands of 2005 USD (bar charts)
Japan
Emerging economies
USA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Percentage of GDP
2010 2020 2035
DEEPENING YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT:
The considerable lack of utilization of
the youth workforce will remain a hurdle
for many countries to overcome in their
quest to sustain economic growth and
enhance quality of life. By 2025, more
than a quarter of the world’s youth
population (aged 15-24) will have no
productive work. Many, especially in
developing regions, will be employed
only informally.
“We have reached a tipping point. Inequality can no longer be treated as an afterthought. We need to focus the debate on how the benefi ts of growth
are distributed. The opening up of opportunity to reduce income inequalities can spur stronger
economic performance and improve living standards across the board.”
– José Ángel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General
Source: European Strategy and Policy Analysis A1:F26 (2013)
Source: The Peterson Institute for International Economics (2015)
12 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
Evolution of the earth’s economic centre of gravity (AD 1 to 2025)
1950
19601970 1980 1990 2000
2010
2025
1000
1500
1820
1913
1940
Between non-OECD counties
Between OECD and non-OECD counties
Between OECD counties
201212,799
billion USD
206065,381
billion USD
47%
38%
15%
33%
42%
25%
Volume and share of trade in 2012 and 2060
ECONOMIC POWER SHIFTS EASTWARD – GDP:
The centre of gravity of the world
economy is the geographic hotspot
based on the distance-weighted GDP
of 700 locations. In 1980 the hotspot
was midway between the economic
powerhouses of Europe and the
United States. By 2030 the hotspot is
forecast to be in Central Asia, i rmly
located between India and China.
ECONOMIC POWER SHIFTS EASTWARD – TRADE:
Asia’s share of global exports is
expected to nearly double to 39%
by 2030. In 2025, China will still be
Africa’s largest trading partner, and
developing countries will increasingly
expand from basic commodities
trading into new, higher value sectors.
This will drive more developed
nations to specialize and diversify in
order to compete.
ECONOMY: TRADE PATTERNS
“The question is not whether trade matters, but how we can make trade a better driver of equitable, sustainable develop-
ment. An ounce of trade can be worth a pound of aid.”
– Ban Ki-moon, Oct 1st 2014
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS:
Emerging regional and trans-regional
trade agreements will have reshaped
trade and investment l ows by 2025 and
spurred the proliferation of global value
chains. Key developments include the
Trans-Pacii c Partnership, the Transatlantic
Trade and Investment Partnership, and
economic communities in Southeast Asia,
Africa, and across the Atlantic.
INCREASED ECONOMIC INTERCONNECTEDNESS:
Interconnectedness brings major
impetus to freer trade globally that
could shift 650 million people out
of poverty over a 10-20-year period.
This is driven by the growth of global
value chains and increasing l ows of
intermediate goods and services.
Source: The Economist, Jun. 28th, 2012.
Source: OECD (2014)
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 13
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Mtoe
NorthAmerica
S & CAmerica
Europe &Eurasia
MiddleEast
AsiaPacific
Africa
Coal
Natural Gas
Liquids
Renewables
Hydroelectricity
Nuclear
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
15
20
20
20
25
Energy consumption by source 2015-2025
Antomony
China
84
Indium
China
57
Magnesium
China
86
Niobium
Brazil
91
Platinium
South Africa
74
Tungsten
China
85
Tantalum
Mozambique
34
Rare EarthElements
China
95
Beryllium
USA
90
Fluorspar
China
63
Germanium
China
68
Graphite
China
70
Gallium
China
51
Cobalt
China
55
Percentage of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country (2011)
INCREASED DEMAND:
Population growth and new consumption
patterns associated with growing
prosperity will place ever more pressure
on natural resources. Global energy
consumption will rise by 20%-35%
over the next 15 years and per capita
consumption of base metals and steel
will grow proportionally with GDP per
capita, up to a certain saturation level.
FOSSIL FUELS FEELING THE HEAT:
Coal, gas, and oil will continue to account
for more than 80% of global energy
output in the next decade. However,
driven by the ight against climate change
and cost pressures, the fossil fuel industry
will have enhanced focus on achieving
cost and emission reductions.
CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS:
The production of many raw materials
of critical importance to a range of
industries is highly concentrated
geographically. China, for instance, holds
more than 50% of the known global
reserves of nine of fourteen raw materials
classiied as critical by the European
Commission, and also accounts for 95%
of the global production of Rare Earth
Elements.
ECONOMY: NATURAL RESOURCES
WASTE – THE NEW OIL:
Waste is increasingly being viewed as a
resource, and the practice of restoring
used products for resale is expanding
rapidly. It has been estimated that should
economies worldwide successfully move
to circular models, then, in addition
to positive environmental effects like
reducing GHG emissions, more than
US$1 trillion a year could be generated
by 2025, with 100,000 new jobs created
over the next ive years.
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 (2015)
Source: European Environmental Agency (2013)
14 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
GEOPOLITICS
Geopolitical relations are increasingly concentrating around the poles of accord and discord. On the one hand, contemporary geopolitics sets priorities for collective action on global challenges – like global trade, climate change, terrorism, sustainable use of natural resources, and the UNDP Sustainable Development Goals. On the other hand, geopolitical rivalries are on the rise – from the Arctic to the coastal waters of Japan, in the Middle East, and across the former Soviet Union. The United Nations will continue to play a pivotal role in
coordinating the efforts of the world’s nations, for example,
on climate change.
However, opposing political motives among the veto powers
on the Security Council will prevent the UN from acting
decisively on key security-related matters.
GEOPOLITICS:Old and new rivalries, disputed resources,
and new sources of power
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 15
TOP THREE REMAIN, EMERGING ECONOMIES GAIN INFLUENCE:
USA, China, and the EU will continue to
dominate the global geopolitical scene in
2025, but China’s geopolitical weight will
grow relative to USA and the EU. The Big 3
will, however, be increasingly challenged
by other rising economies and by strong
regional blocs. Europe’s inl uence will be
more subdued than that of USA and China.
Economic woes and the rise of nationalism
amongst its member states is turning Europe’s
attention in on itself, with a much diminished
capacity for action beyond its borders.
HIERARCHIES CHALLENGED:
Discussions forming the international policy
agenda have previously been primarily led
by national governmental authorities. This
is changing as city, state, and provincial
governments are forming strategic partner-
ships with other actors, increasing their ability
to inl uence the international policy debate. In
2025 we will increasingly see forms of network
governance that are characterized by trust,
partnership, diplomacy, and lack of structure.
C40 is a network of megacities aiming to facilitate dialogue, cooperation, and information
exchange amongst city offi cials to inspire collective action to reduce
GHGs and climate risks.
GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY AND RESOURCE COMPETITION:
Rivalry over access to energy and ever-scarcer
natural resources will be a major determinant
of geo-political shifts in the world in the
coming decade and beyond. The USA’s
continued pursuit of energy self-sufi ciency
and relative disengagement from geopolitics
have diminished its ‘super cop’ effect and
allowed other geopolitical tensions to fester.
Protectionism and resource nationalism is on
the rise, as are competing territorial claims.
This is evident in a broad spectrum of regional
tensions and conl icts.
Four countries – Denmark, Russia, USA, and
Canada – have made conl icting territorial
claims in the Arctic, based on the extension of
their respective national continental shelves, a
conl ict exacerbated by declining summer ice
coverage. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan,
and the Philippines are competing for natural
resources, territory, and transport routes in the
South China Sea. The bitter sectarian conl icts
and weak governance in the Middle East
region is highly sensitive to movements in the
oil market.
Russia
Canada
Greenland
Canada
Alaska
Russia
Norway
North Pole
US
Denmark
200-mile line
China
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
Spratly Islands
Scarborough Shoal
Macclesfied Bank
Pratas Islands
Paracel Islands
Taiwan
Philippines
Vietnam
Malaysia
China
Taiwan
Philippines
Vietnam
Malaysia
Japan
Approximate locationof island(s)
Nation Claiming Area
GEOPOLITICS: TRENDS
Source: BBC, Dec. 15th, 2014
Source: npr.org, Sept. 7th, 2012.
16 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
ENVIRONMENT
The global environment is under increasing pressure from a range of inluencing factors, including population growth, deforestation, climate change, agriculture, air and water pollution, mounting consumption of resources, and poor waste management. Taken together, these negative forces are having increasingly alarming effects on ecosystems, wildlife habitats, biodiversity, and the quality of life in many communities across the world.
Effective measures to protect the environment for current
and future generations are therefore imperative. Efforts to
establish baselines and monitor developments are critical for
informing policymakers about required courses of action.
The purpose of our company, DNV GL, is to safeguard life,
property, and the environment. To this end, we work closely
with governments and industry to develop and deploy
effective measures to preserve the health of our planet.
ECOSYSTEMS:Many of the world’s ecosystems
are critically threatened
CLIMATE CHANGE:Decade of truth: setting the
trajectory toward 2050
POLLUTION:Lethal and irreversible environmental damage
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 17
CONTINUED DEFORESTATION:
The Earth’s forest area is being
reduced by about 5 million
hectares each year – an area larger
than Switzerland – due mainly to
expansion of cropland and urban
areas. Deforestation is destroying
wildlife habitats and decreasing the
carbon stocks in the world’s forests
by about a half a gigatonne annually.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION:
The global demand for food is
escalating rapidly. This is driven by
population growth, increased wealth,
and the resource intensity of food
supply. If current food consumption
and food waste management
practices continue, agricultural
output will need to increase by 60%
by weight by 2050 relative to 2005.
WATER RESOURCES STRESS:
Global water demand is likely
to increase by 55% between
2000 and 2050, with the largest
demand increases coming from
manufacturing, electricity, and
domestic use. By 2025, 1.8 billion
people will be living in countries or
regions with absolute water scarcity,
and fully two-thirds of the world
population could be facing water
stress conditions.
ENVIRONMENT: ECOSYSTEMS
Terrestrial species Freshwater species Marine species
-39% -76% -39%
Observed decline of Living Planet Index species 1970-2010BIODIVERSITY AND SPECIES ABUNDANCE:
The three main components of
biodiversity – genes, species,
and ecosystems – are all showing
signs of decline. Habitat damage,
overexploitation, pollution, invasive alien
species, and climate change are the i ve
principal causes of biodiversity loss.
Actions taken in the coming decade will
determine the fate of biological diversity
for millennia.
Million metric tonnes
0
30
60
90
120
150
Beef, pork and poultry production 2012 and 2024
Beef Pork Poultry
Million metric tonnes
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Crop production 2012 and 2024
Vegetableoils
Rice Protein meals
Wheat Oilseeds Coarse grains
Increase 2012-2024 2012 Increase 2012-2024 2012
Source: OECD/FAO (2015)
Source: WWF (2014)
18 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025
RISK OF STRANDED ASSETS:
Long-term investors are beginning to realize
that climate change can undermine the
inancial performance of their portfolios, and
are starting to shift investments toward low
carbon and “climate safe” activities. Combined
with the effect of regulatory mechanisms, this
will drive an accelerated shift of investments
away from coal-ired power and the extraction
of marginally economic oil resources.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Gap between current level of decline in carbon intensity and trajectory required to meet 2 degree target.
Current carbon intensity decline trend
An average decline of 6.2% per year is required from 2015 and onwards to meet 2 degree target
2000 2005 2015 2025 2030 2040 20452010 2020 2035 2050
Tonnes of CO2 emitted per million USD Gross World Product
0
Alb
erta
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 130
Carbon tax levels 2015 (USD / tonne CO2)
Ca
liforn
ia
Fra
nce
Slo
ven
ia
Irela
nd
De
nm
ark
, British
Co
lum
bia
UK price floor
Tokyo
Fin
lan
d (o
the
r fossil fu
els)
No
rwa
y
Fin
lan
d (tra
nsp
ort fu
els),
Sw
itzerla
nd
Sw
ed
en
Go
vern
me
nt
Pri
vate
Coal
Gas
Oil
Power
Share of fossil fuel value at risk for government and private investors 2015-2035
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
LACK OF CONCERTED ACTION:
By 2025 it will be widely acknowledged
that we are on a trajectory to 3°C warming
or more, and that lack of concerted global
action on climate change is likely to
prevent us from keeping global warming
within 2 °C. The combined atmospheric
concentration of the Kyoto GHG will
be above 480 ppm carbon dioxide
equivalents (CO2e), and still rising at a
steady pace of about 3 ppm per year.
CARBON PRICING GAINING TRACTION:
There will be no global carbon price in
2025, but national and regional carbon
pricing will gain scale, and businesses
will increasingly incorporate carbon
price effects in strategic planning and
investment decisions. This is underscored
by several Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions submitted at COP 21 in Paris,
indicating that carbon pricing will be an
element of their mitigation strategies.
RENEWABLES TOWARDS PRICE PARITY – A NEW ERA:
The share of renewables (particularly
solar) in the electric power mix is
rising rapidly, while prices continue to
decrease. Commercial-scale grid parity
for storage plus solar PV is possible
as early as in 2020. By 2025, onshore
wind and solar PV will be the cheapest
forms of electricity generation in many
countries, diminishing the operating
hours of traditional baseload power
plants.
ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE
Source: PwC (2014)
Source: World Bank (2015)
Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (2014)
Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 19
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2030
2000N
orth America
Europe
Latin America
IndiaC
hina
Africa
Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Million metric tonnes
Nitrogen effluents from wastewater River discharges to the sea
2000
20002030
2030
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Nitrogen effluents from wastewater River discharges to the sea
Million metric tonnes
POLLUTION OF LAKES AND RIVERS:
In the next decade, the detrimental
effects of excessive nutrient release to
water bodies will become more evident,
including widespread processes such as
eutrophication and acidiication. By 2050,
the number of lakes with hypoxia may
increase by 20% globally, predominantly
in Asia, Africa, and Brazil.
AIR POLLUTION:
Regional trends in air pollution
differ. NOx, SO2, and O3 emissions
are declining in OECD countries,
for instance, but are stable or
increasing in other parts of the world.
Although black carbon emissions
are generally decreasing globally,
annual premature deaths linked to
particulate matter and ground level
ozone among urban populations may
double by 2050.
PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS (POPs):
POPs are compounds absorbed
by microorganisms and plants that
then accumulate in wildlife and are
associated with a range of adverse
human health effects. By 2025, there
will have been signiicant progress
towards eliminating the production,
use, release, and storage of POPs
as a consequence of international
leadership and the broad adoption
of the Stockholm Convention on
Persistent Organic Pollutants.
ENVIRONMENT: POLLUTION
OCEAN WASTE:
In 2025 ocean waste and the
associated mix of chemicals and
non-biodegradable components are
broadly acknowledged as a serious
and increasing threat to the marine
environment. Plastics, which represents
as much as 80% of the total marine
debris, is continuing to cause the deaths
of hundreds of thousands seabirds and
marine mammals every year.
“The sustainable management of chemicals and waste must be achieved, in order for our economies to
transition towards a greener, safer and more inclusive path, and in order for our health, and that of our
children, to be protected, wherever we live, whatever our job, whatever our gender, nationality or income.”
– Rolph Payet, UN Executive Secretary of Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm conventions
Source: OECD (2012)
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
INN
OV
AT
ION
DR
IVE
RS
Policy and regulation 24
Sustainable use of resources 26
Climate change 28
Case: Microgrids 30
Digitalization 32
Case: Smarter cities 34
22 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
Historically, technology innovation has driven world population growth – from 1.6 billion to 6 billion individuals in the 20th century alone – and improved health, living standards and the general quality of life along the way. In the 21st century, the emphasis falls on sustainability and the ability of technology innovation to take care of both development demands and the health of planet Earth.
DNV GL’s playground is the technology
frontier. We assist customers develop and
adopt novel technology at scale in an eficient
manner, often redeining perceptions of what
is technically feasible and economically viable.
The new challenges posed by sustainable
use of resources and action against climate
change are triggering intensive technology
development efforts across many industries.
To be effective, these innovation efforts need
to become more collaborative and they
also require well thought-through policy
mechanisms and regulatory measures.
This is especially the case for increasingly
complex cyber physical systems that are
governed by connected and collaborating
computational elements controlling physical
entities. Design, development, operation,
and oversight of these systems will require an
increasing degree of collaboration between
manufacturers, technology users, and
stakeholders – facilitated by common codes
and standards.
AD
AP
TIO
N M
ITIG
ATIO
N SO
CIETAL
CH
ANG
ES
TR
AN
SPO
RT
E
NERGY
LIFE
SCIENCES
CLIM
AT
E C
HA
NG
E
PO
LIC
Y A
ND R
EGULATION
Carbon footprintTransport safety
Road transport pollution
Road infrastructure
Environmental sustainability
Energy equity
Energy security
Low
car
bon
citi
es
The
circ
ular e
conom
y
Sharing e
conom
y m
odel
Urban infrastructure resilience
Emergency preparedness
Coastal protectionPower grid resilience
Ph
arm
ace
utica
l scien
ce
Se
afoo
d
Foo
d su
pp
lyH
ea
lthca
re
Fuel efficiency
Carbon captu
re, u
tilizatio
n and stora
ge
Fuel switch
Renewable energy
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 23
SENSOR
U
BIQUIT
OUS
B
IG D
ATA
S
MA
RT
TECHNOLOGY
COM
MUN
ICATIO
N
AN
ALY
TIC
S
T
EC
HN
OLO
GIE
S
MATERIALS FOR CONSUMPTIO
N O
F WATER R
ESOU
RC
E
ELECTRIFICATION MINERAL RESOURCES M
AN
AG
EME
NT
SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESO
UR
CE
S
DIGIT
ALI
ZATI
ON
Ele
ctri
fica
tio
n o
f tr
an
spo
rt
Ma
teri
als
in w
ind
an
d s
ola
r
Up
sca
ling
en
erg
y st
ora
ge
Imp
rove
d m
inin
g
Mat
eria
l sub
stitu
tion
Recyc
ling
Harvesti
ng
Reclamatio
n
Footprin
ting
Machine learning
Cognitive technologiesAutonomous systems
Software revolution
Open source software and community
Cloud computingTerrestrial: 5G
Satellite comm
unication
The
Inte
rne
t of Th
ing
s
Lab o
n a ch
ip
En
erg
y ha
rvestin
g
MIN
DM
AP
24 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
POLICY AND REGULATION
Policies and regulations shaped over the next decade, and the effectiveness of their implementation, may determine the well-being of our planet centuries from now.
Our planet is being put under pressure on many fronts, challenging its capacity to
provide for sustainable economic and social development simultaneously.
In the coming decade, governments will rely more heavily on technology innovation
to reach their policy objectives within economic and social constraints, and to resolve
partly conlicting policy objectives. The push for continuous and strong GDP growth,
for instance, is often at odds with the need to reduce consumption of resources and
avoid major climate changes. Such contrasting challenges provide strong incentives for
the creation of innovative and balanced solutions.
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
Reduced road trafic pollution will primarily be
driven by electriication of the vehicle leet and
improved fuel eficiency / reduced emission
intensity. Other measures include fuel switch
incentives, incremental taxation of vehicles
based on engine power and car weight,
and redirection of trafic away from densely
populated areas. This drives innovations
related to, for example, alternative fuel
infrastructure, emission catalysts, lightweight
materials, and stud-free winter tyres.
ROAD TRANSPORT POLLUTION (NOx, SOx AND PM10)
Transportation safety is governed by sector
speciic regulations or rules and risk acceptance
criteria. However, all transport sectors will be
affected by the advent of autonomous vehicles
and intelligent transport systems assisting the
operation of a vehicle, ship or aircraft. New
regulations, most critically at local and then
regional level, will need to be developed in
lock step with these developments to ensure
compliance with applicable safety standards.
TRANSPORT SAFETY
Transport Energy Life Sciences
In many cities, trafic congestion is choking
economic productivity and, quite literally, the
citizenry through associated air pollution. This
is encouraging the introduction of measures
to optimize the use of current infrastructure,
such as peak-hour differentiated road tolls and
park-and-ride infrastructure, and tax incentives
to stimulate the use of home ofice solutions.
The food supply chain will be subject to
much greater scrutiny in the coming decades.
Food security issues and increased customer
expectations concerning food safety, tracing
and food content will inluence how all parts
of the supply chain develop. New regulations
will catalyze new technology. DNA tracking
and organic sensors, for instance, will offer
new solutions for monitoring quality and
composition of nutritional content throughout
the food supply chain.
FOOD SUPPLY
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 25
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Seafood is vital to the world’s food security,
but global population growth has placed
our oceans under severe pressure. The
seafood sector urgently needs an enabling
policy and regulatory framework combining
environmental, economic and social
sustainability. This will include food security,
responsible exploitation of marine resources,
reduction of environmental impacts on marine
and land-based ecosystems, protection of
biodiversity and eradication of forced labour.
SEAFOOD
The universal quest for more sustainable
healthcare systems will necessitate broad
reforms and/or targeted regulations from
governments, designed to cut costs and
improve the quality of their health care
systems. Policies will promote services based
on the experience of the patient to facilitate
co-creation of care. New payment models will
be critical for success and are likely to include
pay-for-performance and population based
payments.
HEALTHCARE
Transport accounts for roughly a quarter
of total global CO2 emissions. Emission
reductions will primarily be achieved by modal
shifts in short distance urban travel, improved
fuel eficiency, and less carbon intensive
power trains. While shifts in mode of urban
transport and improved fuel eficiency may
materialize with minimal policy push, increased
deployment of alternative power trains will
require tailored policy measures.
Energy security is the effective management
of primary energy supply, the reliability of
energy infrastructure, and the ability to meet
current and future demand. The next decade
will present new energy security challenges as a
result of upscaling of renewables, downscaling
of coal, and more distributed power generation.
This will encourage energy companies to
diversify their portfolio, and spur technology
developments within energy supply forecasting
and management, and power grid operation.
CARBON FOOTPRINT
ENERGY SECURITY
Environmental sustainability requires supply
and demand-side energy eficiencies and
the development of energy supply from
renewable and other low-carbon sources.
Although energy eficiency investments often
have short return-on-investment timeframes,
widespread implementation of energy
eficiency measured will require a strong
policy push and tailored regulations, such as
renewable portfolio standards and emission
performance standards.
In order to limit pharmaceutical spending
growth, legislators will introduce regulations
that attempt to stamp out anti-competitive
practices and promote the use of generics.
At the same time, the industry will respond
by riding the personalised medicine wave,
moving from mass-market sale to a target-
market approach. Requirements and
methodologies for post-market surveillance
will evolve to meet stakeholder requirements
for safe and effective products.
PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCE
A key objective of national energy policy is to
provide universal and affordable energy for a
country’s population. While most industrialized
countries provide nearly universal access to
electricity, many developing countries have
much lower coverage. Although solar PV will
allow populations in developing countries
to gain interim access to electricity with
minimal policy support, the provision of grid
connection and stable uninterrupted supply
will require tailored policy mechanisms.
ENERGY EQUITY
26 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
Further advances in automotive and shipping
will massify the electric and hybrid electric
powertrain market, implying a shift towards
Li-ion or next-generation batteries, with unique
materials needs compared with traditional
technology. Advances in vehicle and
infrastructure technology are required to make
this practical and viable to the wider public.
Innovation in energy storage is driven
by the ability to manipulate and design
materials at the nano-scale. This is enabling
the development of batteries with higher
capacities and longer lifetimes. While lithium
is in rich supply across the globe, supporting
elements required to make cathodes, such as
nickel and cobalt, may introduce supply chain
issues in the coming decades.
Continual gains in the eficiency of solar PV cells
are being obtained through improvements in
materials science and fabrication. Wind power
is enabled through the use of critical elements
with singular magnetic properties such as
neodymium. The geological distribution of
many novel elements constrains the supply
chain and elevates prices. Advances in the
use of more common elements hold greater
potential to increase the uptake of these
technologies.
In recognition of increased demand for
resources, and the need to reduce the GHG
footprint of products, industries are seeking
opportunities to move away from resources
that are either scarce relative to demand, or
have a high energy input. There is, for instance,
a strong trend for the replacement of steel
with lightweight alloys, typically comprising
Mg, Al, and Li, or novel designs that reduce the
amount of steel required to obtain the same
mechanical properties.
These transitions will change the landscape
of the materials supply chain, and spur
technological innovation in reining,
manufacturing, inishing and assembly.
At the same time, careful analysis of the risk
and the lifecycle costs should be performed
when substituting materials. For instance,
on a per mass basis, producing aluminium
and magnesium requires signiicantly higher
energy inputs compared with steel, but the
fuel savings from using lightweight alloys in
automotive vehicles can recoup that initial
energy investment within 1-2 years.
SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESOURCES
A growing population that is able to buy more per capita is creating an unsustainable demand for our planet’s resources.
To enable our planet to provide for future generations, we must work towards sustainable practices
for resource extraction and consumption. There are three key imperatives shaping the policy agenda:
(i) reducing our reliance on fossil fuels through electriication;
(ii) adopting sustainable consumption of mineral resources; and
(iii) improving the management of fresh-water resources.
Technology has potential to address all three of these imperatives, but possibly at a higher cost
than customers are willing to pay. Cost-lowering technological development must therefore go
hand-in-hand with efforts to develop innovative resource-eficient solutions. Examples of this include
precision farming – which releases only the necessary amounts of nitrogen and other nutrients –
and solar PV – for which there are a growing number of examples where policy mechanisms and
technology innovation have made solar PV cost-competitive compared with electricity from, for
example, gas-ired power plants.
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
UPSCALING ENERGY STORAGE
MATERIALS IN WIND AND SOLAR
MATERIAL SUBSTITUTION
The threat of depleting mineral reserves has
largely been offset by the discovery of new
deposits and improved methods of extracting
and reining lower quality ores. However, the
general energy intensity of mining operations
has increased steeply owing to falling ore
body concentrations. Continued efforts are
needed to ind technological solutions to this
challenge.
IMPROVED MINING
Materials for electriication Consumption of mineral resources Water resource management
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 27
Efforts to reduce water consumption will
require accurate benchmarking of actual
use relative to target levels of eficiency. This
may involve real-time monitoring of water
distribution systems, eficiency labelling of
water-consuming appliances, and metering of
residential water consumption. Tailored policy
mechanisms may follow, such as progressive
pricing of water consumption, which in turn
may encourage further technology-enabled
eficiency gains.
FOOTPRINTING
While commodity metals such as steel,
magnesium, and copper, can be recovered
relatively easily, small amounts of metals in,
for example, electronic waste can be harder
to recover. The United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) International Resource Panel
therefore recommends recycling products rather
than recycling individual metals. This shift is,
however, currently hampered by a perception of
higher costs, liability issues, and the fast pace of
technological development.
In water-scarce regions, the battle against water
losses will spur increased adoption of eficient
irrigation and rainwater harvesting technology
in agriculture, sensor-based surveillance of
municipal water distribution systems, and
a scale-up of renewable energy-powered
desalination. Improved rainwater management
techniques can boost crop yields by a factor of
2 to 4 in parts of Africa and Asia.
HARVESTING
Fresh water scarcity relative to demand will
lead to increased reliance on reclamation,
puriication, and re-use of water discharges.
Technology solutions will include residential
re-use of waste-water for sanitation,
reclamation of agricultural water run-off,
municipal or decentralized waste water
treatment facilities, and technologies capable
of treating waste-water while generating
energy.
RECLAMATION
Gallium
Indium
Germanium
Neodynium
Platinum
TantalumSilv
er
Cobalt
Palladium
Titanium
Copper
Raw material demand from emerging technologies relative to global production in 2006 for all uses
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2006
2030
RECYCLING
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (2013)
28 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
Exposure to increasingly extreme weather and
to progressive sea level rise will create a need
for retroitting some coastal infrastructures.
This can be achieved by lifting exposed
infrastructure components to higher levels,
and by introducing lood protection measures
such as walls and removable perimeters, or,
for metro systems, by installing novel inlatable
bags in tunnels to segment metro lines and
prevent further looding.
CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal warming and associated climate changes are among the greatest challenges of our time. Impacts such as melting of glaciers, reduced crop yields, alteration of ecosystems and increased prevalence of severe loods and droughts can be seen already.
Responding to this challenge requires both mitigation measures that reduce global
emissions of GHGs and adaptation measures that increase climate change resilience.
A more sustainable use of resources is urgently needed, including a shift away from our
heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
The development and adoption of new technology are cornerstones in national plans
for addressing climate change. For mitigation, particular emphasis is put on escalating
renewable power generation, boosting the adoption of energy eficiency measures, and
developing ways to reduce GHG emissions from continued consumption of fossil fuels.
Adaptation requires technologies that enhance the resilience of assets and infrastructure,
while information and communication technology will be essential in shaping a society in
which a more sustainable consumption of resources is a central tenet.
POWER GRID RESILIENCE
URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE
COASTAL PROTECTION
SHARING ECONOMY MODEL
Escalating overconsumption of our planet’s
resources is triggering a movement to
create a circular economy where product
manufacturing is based on ‘cradle to cradle’
principles, rather than linear ‘cradle-to-grave’.
A circular economy is expected to spur
innovations within materials, manufacturing
and recycling, as well as a range of new
business concepts for the reuse, repair,
remanufacturing and technological upgrading
of goods and components.
THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY
Adaptation Mitigation Societal changes
Various technological, economic and social
forces are driving a major trend to introduce
business models and market places for asset
sharing that provide consumers with on-
demand access to products, services, and
resources without the burdens of ownership.
The growth in innovative sharing models is
disrupting established sectors as diverse as
transportation, travel, buildings, tools, and
farming (e.g., Airbnb, Cleanweb and Uber).
Grid resiliency programmes aim primarily
at mitigating weather-related outages
across grids. Innovative grid conigurations
are explored where cascading failures are
delimited by fault isolation, distributed
generation and so-called intentional
islanding of critical customers. In addition the
vulnerability of electrical components against
extreme weather is mitigated by so-called grid
hardening, such as upgrading of poles and
cabling of lines.
Urban infrastructure refers to the physical,
social and governance structures needed
to operate cities. This includes infrastructure
for energy, mobility, telecommunication,
water, sanitation and waste management. The
complexity and interdependence of these
structures require governance that is based
on a systems view, and innovative uses of
technology are necessary to boost resilience
and reduce vulnerability to climate change.
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 29
All industries in the transport sector have
targets for fuel eficiency improvement. This,
along with the impetus to reduce costs is
driving an aggressive implementation of
energy eficiency measures. These include new
engine technologies, enhanced hydrodynamic
or aerodynamic design, and electronic systems
to monitor fuel consumption and automate
fuel consumption reduction measures, such as
the automatic stop of idling engines.
FUEL EFFICIENCY
The quest to reduce the carbon intensity of the
transport sector is causing a rising demand for
low carbon engine technologies: gas engines
are replacing diesel engines onboard ships;
land, sea and road transport are increasingly
using biofuel blends; ever more cars and ships
are being built with electric or hybrid electric
engines; automotive manufacturers are
introducing cars with hydrogen fuel cells for
light and heavy road transport.
Satellites and other remote sensing and
processing tools are increasingly being used in
programmes for emergency preparedness, for
instance in the prediction of cyclone tracks and
intensity. Remote sensing technology is also used
extensively to monitor the status of potential
emergency situations, for instance, in landslide-
susceptible regions. Effective deployment of
these technologies for emergency preparedness
will often require eficient dissemination of
actionable outputs to multiple public authorities.
FUEL SWITCH
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT
Urban areas account for about 70% of
global energy use and energy-related GHG
emissions. Measures such as water saving
and recycling programmes, energy eficiency
standards for buildings, creating low carbon
public transport systems, and securing a
low carbon energy supply are all within the
inluence of cities. Cities can also stimulate
climate friendly behaviour by making climate
actions visible to citizens, for instance through
social media.
A great deal of technological development
is focused on boosting the output from
renewable energy sources. Efforts within wind
and solar PV generally focus on enhancing
eficiency and reducing cost, whereas novel
concepts for wave, tidal and geothermal energy
are more concerned with demonstrating
reliability and commercial viability. The
luctuating nature of the power output from
renewable sources also requires innovation
within power grid design and management.
CCUS is a key technology for reducing CO2
emissions from large point sources. While
the technology per se is already technically
proven at scale, the level of deployment is still
low. Technology innovation efforts today are
primarily targeted at lowering the price of CO2
capture, and demonstrating the reliability of
CO2 geological storage and CO2 enhanced
oil recovery as mechanisms for long term
isolation of CO2 in the subsurface.
LOW CARBON CITIES
RENEWABLE ENERGY
CARBON CAPTURE, UTILIZATION AND STORAGE (CCUS)
30 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
MICROGRIDS
Microgrids are localized power grids that operate in
synchrony with, or independently from, the main grid. As
such, they offer resilience against both physical and cyber
disruptions. A variety of microgrid designs have been
developed in recent years. Some systems are integrated
into the local grid and serve discrete communities like
universities and corporate campuses, while other systems
are “off grid” and operate autonomously in serving single
buildings or energy domains. Thus, a microgrid is not
characterized by its size, but rather by its functionality.
Microgrids also open up opportunities for distributed energy
sources, both conventional and renewable (solar and wind)
as well as storage devices such as batteries.
Whilst still in their infancy, microgrids are poised to play
a strategic role in the future landscape of electricity
distribution. Early movers, such as the state of Connecticut in
the US, have supported the development and deployment
of microgrids through pilot funding programmes. The
Connecticut DEEP Microgrid Pilot Program was launched
with the intention of increasing grid resilience against
extreme weather. The Wesleyan University microgrid – which
was the irst out of nine initially inanced projects to become
operational – is designed to power the entire campus in the
event of a major outage.
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 31
SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESOURCES
Microgrids use local and often renewable energy
sources to serve local demands. In so doing, they help
to reduce the energy losses typical of large transmission
and distribution networks.
DIGITALIZATION
The increased complexity of microgrid operations
demands higher observability and controllability of
various components within the microgrid, both under
“off grid” operation and during the synchronization
with the main grid. By providing components with
digital sensors and sophisticated controls, operations
can be monitored and optimized in order to improve
performance and enhance quality of power supply.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Microgrids can guard against major grid disturbances
– such as those wrought by Hurricane Sandy – by
intentionally disconnecting from the main grid to
form an island power system. In the wake of Sandy,
large areas of the Eastern seaboard in the US were left
without power, not due to direct storm damage, but
rather to grid failures that occurred kilometres away and
propagated through the system.
POLICY AND REGULATION
Owing to the benei ts brought about by microgrids,
we are seeing the progressive introduction of policy
and regulatory incentives aimed at fostering their
development and implementation. Public-private
partnerships are also being established, for instance
in Singapore, from where the i rst large-scale
demonstration project of microgrids in Southeast Asia is
being led.
DRIVERS OF MICROGRID DEVELOPMENT
32 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
The IoT refers to the network of “all” physical
objects (hardware) that can be connected
to the internet or a local web. Software is an
instrumental enabler through provision of data
aggregation and data analytics functionalities.
Examples of IoT-enabled applications are
remote monitoring and control of homes, and
personal health and i tness tracking. By 2025,
the IoT is expected to encompass 0.5-1 trillion
devices – with a potential economic impact of
2.7-6.2 trillion USD annually.
DIGITALIZATION
The term digitalization refers to the effect on society achieved through integration of digital technologies into everyday life.
These effects include the restructuring of social domains around digital communication and
infrastructures, changes to business models and operations, and how value for customers and
stakeholders is generated and delivered.
Digitization – the conversion of analogue streams of information into digital bits – is in effect a
sub-set of digitalization, which is fueling technology innovation across industry sectors: helping
society do things cheaper, faster and better; allowing individuals and businesses to obtain more
control and inl uence; and pushing the boundaries of current technology frontiers.
Digital technologies allow global interconnectedness 24/7 and offer the ability to combine,
analyze and generate actionable knowledge from large and complex data streams in real time.
Innovation opportunities also arise from the emergence of more `intelligent´ digital systems
assisting or replacing human judgment or decisions.
LAB ON A CHIP
THE INTERNET OF THINGS (IoT)
Over the next decade we expect to see satellite
communication speeds of up to 50 Mbps, and
low orbit nano-satellites weighing less than
10 kg, bringing dramatic costs reductions.
Low-cost, WLAN-connectable satellites will
provide near-global coverage 24/7, allowing
real-time high-dei nition video streaming
and detailed AIS tracking. Cheaper satellite
communication subscriptions will be balanced
by the need for higher bandwidth.
SATELLITE COMMUNICATION
Sensor technology Ubiquitous communication Big data analytics Smart technologies
The next generation 5G network is expected
to be rolled out by 2020 to meet increased
demands, such as a data transfer rate faster
than 1 Gbps. The network will have to cater
for new use-cases enabled by the IoT and
fuli l the demand of multimedia broadcasts.
5G network functionality will also enable
individual devices to communicate directly
with each other rather than relying on network
operators' base stations.
TERRESTRIAL: 5G
Energy to power low-energy electronics can be
harvested from the surrounding environment.
Energy sources can be RF signals, waste heat,
solar energy, vibrations, and so on. Energy
harvesting is driven by an increased demand
for wireless connection, and the desire to avoid
battery solutions. Examples of energy harvesting
devices are piezo elements transforming pressure
variations in shoes into electricity usable for
wearable devices, or thermal elements powering
implantable medical devices with electricity.
ENERGY HARVESTING
Integrated circuits will increasingly be
embedded into micro electro mechanical
systems offering sensing and processing
capability at the point of data collection. Future
chips containing hundreds of sensors will spur
a wave of automation across industries, and a
revolution within personal monitoring. Some
simple analytical tasks, such as measurement of
blood glucose levels, identii cation of food-
borne pathogens, and water quality testing, are
already being done on a microchip.
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 33
Open source software and communities are
central to the so-called big data phenomenon.
Key examples of open-source software are
Linux and Hadoop. The Android operating
system for smartphones, for instance, is built
on top of the Linux kernel. Hadoop is a fast-
developing eco-system of free software tools
for handling and analysing large datasets
and data streams based on large clusters of
commodity (cheap) hardware.
OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE AND COMMUNITY
Cloud computing devices are connected via the
Internet to servers where the data is hosted and
the actual computation is done. Cloud solutions
offer device and location independence,
scalability on demand, low upfront investments,
and low maintenance cost. Examples of cloud
computing concepts are Software as a Service
(Google Gmail, DropBox), Infrastructure as a
Service (Amazon Web Services, Open Stack) and
Platform as a Service (Thingworx, IBM Blue Mix,
Google App Engine, GE Predix).
CLOUD COMPUTING
Semantic technology uses ontologies to
encode meanings separately from data and
content iles, and separately from application
code. Ontologies are explicit formal
speciications of the terms in a domain and
relationships among them. In this way it enables
the computer to understand the meaning
and context behind words, sentences and
ultimately data. It is expected that by 2025 most
search engines will rely heavily on semantic
technologies for human-computer interaction.
COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGIES
In recent years, the sophistication of automated
systems has increased immensely, driven by
advances in sensors, software and computing
hardware. The ongoing transition from
automated to autonomous systems will result
in increasingly complex systems over the next
decade. Where an automated system tends
to be specialized in one task, an autonomous
system is a situation-aware, self-governing
system capable of completing loosely deined
goals using complex reasoning.
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Human cognitive ability and perception is
generally too limited to extract useful information
from large amounts of data. The task is far
better performed by sophisticated computer
programs that ind patterns in data, predict future
dynamics, or extract valuable information from
unstructured textual data sets. Machine learning
is still considered to be in its infancy, but the
potential of cognitive technologies are already
clear. An example of an early development is
Watson, IBM’s cognitive computing platform.
MACHINE LEARNING
Software companies are gaining ascendance
in many traditional industry sectors.
Digitalization, digitization and eCommerce
are enabling software companies to penetrate
markets across industries, often with disruptive
network-based business models. The world's
largest bookseller, largest video service, most
dominant music companies, fastest growing
telecom company, best new ilm production
company and fastest-growing recruiting
company are all software-based companies.
SOFTWARE REVOLUTION
34 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
SMARTER CITIES
The world over, urban populations are growing and rural
populations declining. This trend is deepening and by 2030,
6 out of every 10 people will be living in cities – producing an
ever greater share of the planet’s economic output. It stands
to reason therefore that cities will play the pivotal role in
decisions and actions relating to resource consumption and
carbon emissions and in the achievement or otherwise of
most of the UNDP Sustainable Development Goals. However,
in order to maximize their potential as positive agents of
change, cities need to:
• Become digitally smart – effectively deploy information
and communication technologies to execute governance,
stimulate citizen action, and share learnings across
institutions and among cities;
• Become physically smart – transform infrastructure and
processes for lows of energy, materials, services and
inancing to catalyse sustainable development, resilience,
and a higher quality of life; and
• Become economically smart – establish local ecosystems
through which citizens and businesses can share assets
and resources, and collaborate to meet speciic goals.
The modes of ‘smartness’ apply pervasively: extending from
municipal services, transport, energy and healthcare, to the
choices that citizens make as consumers, to the physical
space (for example, resource-eficient buildings). Digital
technologies and innovative partnership models allow cities
to engage more actively with stakeholders in the execution
of urban planning and management, and respond more
rapidly to the social and economic needs of society.
Cities tend to be benchmarked on various criteria cutting
across three dimensions: livability (quality of life, urban
mobility); workability (income equality, working environment
and economic productivity); and sustainability (e.g.,
resource and energy eficiency, pollution and environmental
protection). Smart cities excel in how they improve on
all three dimensions through policy and governance,
integration of energy, transport and communication
networks, and participatory action and engagement.
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 35
SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESOURCES
The need to improve the efi ciency and sustainability
of l ows of water, energy, food, materials and people
through urban conglomerations is perhaps the
key driver for cities to become smarter – digitally,
physically and economically.
DIGITALIZATION
Digital technologies offer opportunities to operate
better the ever-more densely woven web of mechanical
and electrical systems in cities, including smart building
applications, transportation systems, power grids, and
water supply and waste removal networks. Optimizing the
operation of city functions will require a digital sense-
process-respond system consisting of the following
technology elements:
• Wired and wireless communication channels for
transmitting and receiving signals;
• Computers, mobile technology and microchips
providing ubiquitous processing capability;
• Sensors and monitoring devices connecting the
digital and physical world; and
• Software infrastructure enabling remote operation of
geographically distributed systems.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Cities account for roughly 70% of global GHG
emissions, while about 360 million urban residents
live in coastal areas no higher than 10m above sea
level. Cities are therefore a focal point for climate
change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
The city government of Oslo, Norway, has pledged
to reduce emissions by 50% by 2020 relative to
emissions in 1990 – a target that, they say, “… can
only be accomplished through close collaboration
between citizens, businesses, organizations, the
national and city governments.”
POLICY AND REGULATION
Creating resource efi cient, low carbon, well-functioning
and digitally operable cities requires policies and
regulations tailored to mobilize citizen action and
stimulate investment in transformative technology and
solutions.
DRIVERS FOR BUILDING CITY INTELLIGENCE
36 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025
CITY RESILIENCECity resilience – the provision of a safe, secure, and reliable
environment for both businesses and citizens – is a central
objective for city governments, and key to attract new
businesses. This objective is frequently being put under
scrutiny by extreme weather events and increasing urban
agglomeration.
Infrastructures are also becoming more complex and more
interconnected, so that disruptions of one infrastructure,
like power lines, may lead to cascading effects and bring
down other critical infrastructures like water, transport,
food and waste.
The creation of city resilience requires smart governance
through adoption of a systems perspective – an
understanding interdependencies between digital and
physical infrastructures and the cities’ ecological, social
and governance systems.
URBAN MOBILITYUrban mobility programmes focus on technology that
can help to broaden consumer choices and reduce travel
time, congestion and pollution. This often requires re-
directing city spending from increasing road and highway
capacity towards alternative mobility models and services.
Many cities are paving the way for this transformation
by digitalizing their public-transit systems and allowing
citizens to use mobile apps to book and pay for any trip
by any mode of public transport in one click. Other apps
deploy real-time data to guide drivers to available parking
spots or provide on-demand point-to-point bus services
(variable start and end-points) optimizing pickups, drop-
offs, and routing based on demand.
This wave of e-mobility apps is also spurring an emerging
collaborative mobility economy. Some apps connect car
drivers with potential passengers, or allow people to
borrow a car from another city resident. Collaborative
arrangements are also occurring in the business
segment. E-mobility service providers are partnering with
technology providers to power their businesses, and
manufacturers are interacting with, for instance, insurance
irms to develop new products for autonomous vehicles.
Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 37
SINGAPORESingapore is reaching beyond the ambition of becoming
a smart city; it intends to become a ‘Smart Nation’. Its
government is keenly aware of the need for anticipation of
and taking early action on the megatrends that will impact
Singapore, and the world. The two most important trends
for Singapore are those of an ageing population, and an
urban density of nearly 8,000 people per square kilometer
– compared with 350-400 in countries like Japan and The
Netherlands.
Singapore is pulling together its universities and medical
facilities, research and development (R&D) investments, a
fast-growing community of tech start-ups and investment
capital in a remarkable collaborative effort. The government
is powering these innovation efforts by putting in place
standards to support innovation, establishing an island-wide
high speed 1Gbps broadband access and wireless broadband
infrastructure, making available some 11,000 governmental
data sets, and hosting a ‘living lab’ to test new ideas and
solutions for a smart energy infrastructure, using sensor
networks and big data and analytics technologies.
Examples of innovation initiatives include the trialing of a tele-
health rehabilitation system enabling home therapy sessions
and opening of a road network for autonomous vehicle trials.
The government’s Smart Energy Community test-bed is part
of the Eco-Campus programme based on experiences of the
‘PowerMatching City’ in the Netherlands. It will demonstrate
customers’ use and business cases to enhance energy eficiency,
maximise renewable energy integration, and develop new
electricity market policies for Singapore’s future energy system.
AMSTERDAMThe Amsterdam metropolitan area has an innovative
platform called “Amsterdam Smart City” that aims to reduce
trafic, save energy and improve public safety. It challenges
businesses, residents, the municipality and knowledge
institutions to suggest and apply innovative ideas and
solutions for urban issues. Since 2009, Amsterdam Smart
City has attracted in excess of 100 partners who are actively
involved in more than 92 innovative projects. These projects
run on an interconnected platform through wireless devices
to enhance the city’s real-time decision making abilities.
The Amsterdam Metropolitan Institute has been established
to innovate on topics like water, food and energy. The
institute brings together the Universities of Delft (NL),
Wageningen (NL) and Berkeley (USA) to work with industry
and the municipality of Amsterdam. One of its pilot projects
uses gaming to engage youths to save energy by raising
awareness and changing behaviour. Another recent initiative
is the 3D Print Canal House, a dramatic demonstrator project
in which an international team of partners has joined forces
with local scientists, designers, the construction industry and
other members of the community to 3D print a canal house
at an expo-site in the very heart of Amsterdam.
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
OU
TL
OO
K
Shipping 40
Energy 54
Life Sciences 68
Digitalization of shipping 44
Energy eficiency and fuel diversiication 46
Safety enhancement 48
Novel design and manufacturing 50
Vision 52
SH
IPP
ING
42 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
Shipping is the most energy efi cient mode of transport, but
there is still signii cant room for improvement regarding energy
efi ciency and associated emissions. The industry also has a
safety challenge with casualty rates far exceeding those of
comparable land-based industries. The impetus for addressing
these challenges has largely come from regulations and
competitive pressure, but public demand for more transparency
and sustainability has also become important. There is
also a view that the industry should more readily embrace
technologies implemented in other industries in order to
improve shipping’s environmental footprint, performance, and
safety record.
There is little doubt therefore that i nancial, regulatory, and
societal pressures will continue to be exerted to encourage
shipping to lower its environmental impact. This will result in
growing numbers of vessels being designed to offer superior
energy efi ciency through measures such as improved
hydrodynamics, use of lightweight materials, and advanced
hybrid power generation systems, with energy storage for
optimization of performance and operations. New, increasingly
effective solutions to reduce water and air pollution will
become available. Diversii cation of the fuel mix should also
be expected, with an increasing share of distillate fuels as
well as scrubbers for compliance with upcoming low-sulphur
requirements. Alternative fuels have the potential to play a
more important role, with LNG introduced in large ocean-going
vessels, and grid electricity becoming standard for cold ironing
in ports.
Digitalization of information l ows will spur automation
of existing processes and functions and positively impact
safety and environmental performance. Ships are becoming
sophisticated sensor hubs and data generators, and
advances in satellite communications are improving ship
connectivity, allowing for a massive increase in the volumes
PREDICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS TOWARD 2025
Fuel prices Relatively low oil demand and abundant supply keeps conventional fuel prices low.
Fuel mix Due to low oil prices, minimal adoption of alternative fuels. Weak LNG growth due to emissions standards.
Degree of digitalization
Slow penetration of digital technologies. Monitoring still relies upon manual reports from the crew.
Software penetration and autonomy
Limited adoption of software-controlled equipment and automation.
Adoption of energy effi ciency measures
Only measures for complying with energy efi ciency design index (EEDI) standards adopted.
Hybrid and fully electric powertrains
Uptake in special ship types in developed economies only.
ASSUMING WEAK GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRADE DEMAND
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 43
of data transferred at ever-lower cost. Onshore, new cloud
technologies, such as big data platforms and digital twin
technologies, will have a dramatic effect on how the industry
manages information, and how vessels and their components
are designed, built, and tested – all of which will see new digital
business models emerging. Advanced software and simulation
capabilities will result in more complex systems being controlled
by software, while near real-time evaluation possibilities will be
available, accompanied by suggestions for corrective actions
by the crew and providing supply chain management decision
support. Increased automation and availability of high-reliability,
software-controlled, cyber-physical systems will allow for
advances in automation and remotely controlled operations.
Additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, is another potential
game changer in shipping. Not only can additive manufacturing
result in new designs for more efi cient machinery components,
it could also allow spare parts to be produced locally in various
ports around the world. This would shorten the time for repairs
and contribute to more efi cient ship operations.
Shipping is a global industry, and thus broadly follows trends
and forces of the global economy. However, technology uptake
does and will vary in different geographies and trade segments.
In addition, the digital era brings ‘through-cycle’ change in and
of itself – overturning business models and modes of operation.
PREDICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS TOWARD 2025
Fuel prices Strong transport demand increases pressure on oil prices, but price volatility remains.
Fuel mix Diversii cation of fuel mix. Strong LNG growth, considerable interest in methanol, biofuels, and electricity.
Degree of digitalization
Strong uptake of offshore-onshore digital solutions for sensor-based monitoring and data analytics for optimization of operations.
Software penetration and autonomy
Introduction of software-based control systems for supporting crew in complex operations. First steps towards autonomous operations.
Adoption of energy effi ciency measures
Aggressive introduction of energy efi ciency measures for improving competitiveness.
Hybrid and fully electric powertrains
Strong growth in battery-based solutions for improving energy efi ciency and reducing emissions.
ASSUMING STRONG GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND TRADE DEMAND
44 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
DIGITALIZATION
OF SHIPPING
MARITIME CONNECTIVITY
In the next decade, a variety of new
communications technologies will be deployed:
cellular networks in coastal areas; VDES (new
data service on the VHF band); Wi-Fi in ports,
and, most importantly, satellite communications,
improving coverage and bandwidth. Currently,
the maritime industry contributes to the growth
in deployment of VSAT (Very Small Aperture
Terminals) equipment on board ships.
According to COMSYS, the number of active
maritime VSAT installations quadrupled
from 2008 (6,001) to 2014 (21,922), and it is
predicted that the number will exceed 40,000
by 2018. By 2020, most classed vessels will be
broadband capable. Also, the VSAT network
capacity is increasing owing to the introduction
of new high throughput satellite (HTS) systems,
with two to ten times higher throughput than
classical satellites. Euroconsult has estimated
that the overall VSAT network capacity over
maritime regions will increase from 2.4 Gbps
in 2011 to 12 Gbps in 2016, corresponding
to a 38% annual growth. Extrapolating from
this growth would result in 217 Gbps in 2025,
implying a massive increase in data transfer
rates and decreased cost per bit for the
connected vessels. According to Cooper’s Law
and Edholm’s Law of Bandwidth, it is typical for
wireless communication technologies to exhibit
exponential growth.
The improved maritime connectivity described
above will have a dramatic effect on how the
industry manages information. Most ships,
systems, and components will be linked to the
Internet, making them accessible from almost
any location. At the same time, combining
data streams from multiple sources will enable
the industry to make informed decisions
faster, leading to more eficient operations
and responsive organizations. This will boost
performance management (including leet
utilization, routing, trim, fuel consumption,
emission management) and asset integrity
management, building on remote condition
monitoring as well as allowing for an increased
level of automation. This may, in turn, facilitate
remote controlled and autonomous ship
operations. This will also have a positive impact
on safety at sea. In fact, new digital solutions
will provide better control over the status
of degradable systems, increase situational
awareness and human reliability, and provide
support in the deinition of corrective actions
and the reduction of operational risk.
Improvements in maritime connectivity will also
bring many beneits to the transport sector as
a whole. For example, supply chains can be
more eficiently organized around adaptable
operations that leverage timely information on
cargo, routes, and the operation and condition
of assets. This will improve eficiency in many
ways, including reducing lead times and fuel
consumption by optimizing arrival times, and
also allowing a better organization of operations
and workforces on land for handling cargo
and carrying out possible maintenance and/or
inspection activities.
Apart from enhancing safety and eficiency,
ship connectivity will also answer the need for
more transparent operations and help build
trust and collaboration between various industry
stakeholders based on the collection and
analysis of shared information. Ship connectivity
will provide a unique opportunity for maritime
authorities to monitor compliance with
existing regulations to improve safety, achieve
environmental targets, and boost competition in
the industry.
Projected maritime VSAT network capacity
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Gbps (
Gig
abit
s p
er
second)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Telenor’s HTS “Thor VII” inspected in factory. Source: Telenor Satellite Broadcasting
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 45
MARINE CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS
A cyber-physical system comprises physical
components that can be monitored, controlled,
and optimized by smart sensors, advanced
software and actuators. Modern ships are
becoming highly automated and are increasingly
dependent on software-based control systems.
These extend both to normal operation functions
such as Dynamic Positioning station keeping
as well as to critical safety-related functions
and emergency control, such as emergency
shutdown and blowout preventers (BOPs).
Machinery systems of ships are increasingly
being controlled by software and i tted with
low-cost, smart sensors that allow monitoring
of condition and performance parameters.
Control systems for ship propulsion systems,
for instance, enable seamless integration
of electrical components and conventional
mechanical systems in order to optimize
efi ciency without compromising safety. Similarly,
marine navigation systems will increasingly
rely on advanced software and sensors to
alert the navigator to possible hazards ahead,
and propose appropriate courses of action to
maintain a safe route. Considering the sheer
ubiquity of control systems on board, it will be
possible to refer to the ship itself as a cyber-
physical system.
The fact that these systems are highly
interconnected contributes to an increase in
the overall complexity. As both normal and
emergency operations depend largely on
functional and reliable sensors and software,
it is crucial that these are proven to function
correctly – a task that is sometimes challenging
for individual vendors to prove owing to the
interconnectedness of the various systems. As
a consequence, although sensors and software
will play an increasing role in shipping, greater
efforts are needed by system integrators and
third party assurance providers to make sure that
sensors and software are reliable enough for safe
shipping operations. Thus, technologies such
as hardware-in-the-loop testing are needed to
check software before it is deployed. Similarly,
software change management will also need
to be addressed as a main critical factor for the
reliability of such systems in operations.
THE DIGITAL TWIN
A digital twin is a digital copy of a real ship,
including its systems, that synthesizes the
information available about the ship in the digital
world. A digital twin allows any aspect of an
asset to be explored through a digital interface,
including layout, design specii cations, simulation
models, data analytics, and so on. A digital twin of
a ship therefore has many applications throughout
its lifecycle.
During design, the digital twin is used as a virtual
test bench to improve performance of a system
as well as an information management system
supporting the workl ow, reducing development
costs and time. It also i nds application in third
party verii cation, facilitating a more automatic
and systematic approach to safety assurance.
With the advance of digital technologies in the
next decade, ship systems and related digital
twins will be designed with the support of cloud-
based information management and multi-model
simulation platforms. These will allow different
stakeholders to populate the digital twin of an
asset with modules and evaluate in advance how
the system will operate as a whole.
In operations, the digital twin offers several
possibilities for evaluating performance and
criticalities in near real-time and suggesting
corrective actions, when coupled with
operational data from (sensor-instrumented)
equipment. Over time, increasingly detailed
virtual models will be continuously populated
with information collected on board, accelerating
the development of industrial big data and smart
analytics platforms.
Virtual ship platforms will lead to several new
ways of operating and maintaining ships and
l eets, and, indeed, the digital channel may come
to represent the preferred route for stakeholders
in the shipping industry. However, this new era
is in its infancy and smart ways of organizing and
making accessible the vast amount of information
need to be explored. New technologies that
leverage the use of ontology-based reasoning,
functional modelling, multi-physics simulation,
machine learning, and big data are therefore
being explored in the industry and by academia;
by 2025, the results of these investigations
should provide the basis for new standards and
best practices for the management of the new
digital-industrial age of shipping.
Dynamic Positioning
Speed Tower Train
Vessel Management SystemPropulsion Management System
46 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND
FUEL DIVERSIFICATION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES
Overall ship design determines the size and
dimensions of the vessel, the hull coniguration,
material selection, and, ultimately, the ship
performance characteristics under loaded and
ballast conditions. These, in turn, impact upon
fuel use and associated CO2 emissions. By
2025, more ships will be designed to operate
with less ballast, and with lightweight materials
increasingly used as a replacement for steel in
non-structural elements. This offers substantial
eficiency gains by reducing the area of the
hull under water and consequently reducing
resistance. Furthermore, there will be greater use
of technologies such as air lubrication to reduce
frictional resistance of the hull by introducing
a thin layer of air between the hull and water,
thereby lubricating the hull-water contact area.
Hardened low-resistance hull coatings will also
be widely applied to reduce frictional resistance
and fouling.
Advanced control systems for operation of ship
machinery propulsion systems will improve
management of the energy low. For instance,
electronically controlled fuel injection systems
enable more responsive fuel injection, better
combustion, and optimization of performance
at various engine loads. Other ship power
systems that will be increasingly automated and
optimized include power generators, variable
speed pumps, transformers, and waste heat
recovery solutions. The overall goal is to provide
an energy management approach that optimally
matches demand and production, taking into
account voyage plans, hotel needs, energy
storage (i.e., batteries), supplementary power
generation technologies, such as solar panels,
and supplementary propulsion systems, like sails
and kites.
HYBRID POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS
Recent developments in ship electriication
hold signiicant promise for improved energy
management and fuel eficiency. Battery-
powered propulsion systems are already being
engineered for smaller ships, while the current
focus of engine manufacturers is on hybrid
electric solutions for larger vessels.
Signiicant growth in hybrid electric ships should
be expected after 2020 in ship segments like
harbour tugs, offshore service vessels, and
ferries. By 2025, a large share of new commercial
ships will probably include some degree of
hybridization. For large, deep-sea vessels, for
instance, hybrid architecture may be utilized to
power auxiliary systems, and for manoeuvring
and port operations. Shifting from AC to DC
grids on board will also allow engines to operate
at variable speeds such that the engine can
operate more eficiently at low loads. Additional
beneits of hybrid-electric ships include power
redundancy, noise and vibration reduction, and
decreased emissions (NOX, SOX and particulate
matter) in ports and populated coastal areas.
The energy density of batteries is a limiting factor
that has an impact on the size of batteries and
the cruising range of electric ships. New battery
chemistries may offer energy density that is one
order of magnitude higher than current levels.
With this level of energy density becoming
commercially available and affordable, it should
be expected that the share of hybrid propulsion
systems and electric ships will rise rapidly and
gradually become comparable to conventional
vessels. However, this is not expected to happen
before 2025.
Energy flow for a typical ocean going vessel
Exhaust gases
Hull friction/propulsion
Energy input (fuel)
Heat
Propeller
Auxiliaries
Wave and wind
Estimated energy saving from a hybrid power generation system in calm weather
Calm weatherConventional
Calm weatherHybrid
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fuel NO CHx 4
Estimated energy saving from a hybrid power generation system in bad weather
Bad weatherConventional
Bad weather Hybrid
Fuel0
20
40
60
80
100
CH4
NOx
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 47
ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Alternative fuels can be a promising solution for
shipping. As they are essentially free of sulphur
they offer compliance with environmental
regulations, as well as the potential for a smaller
carbon footprint. One key factor that will
affect uptake is the price of these fuels. Other
questions that need to be addressed are related
to local and global availability, production
techniques, and safety and reliability concerns.
The alternative fuel options available today
or in the foreseeable future include liqueied
natural gas (LNG), liqueied petroleum gas
(LPG), methanol, ethanol, biodiesel, dimethyl
ether (DME), biogas, synthetic fuels, grid
electricity, nuclear propulsion, and hydrogen.
New fuels often require new on board systems
and machinery, and shifting from one fuel
(heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine diesel oil (MDO))
to another (e.g., LNG) will take time, and
may lead to unforeseen technical issues and
delays for pioneers. Thus, a fuel that can be
introduced without signiicant modiications
to the machinery and storage facilities has the
advantages of simplicity and low capital costs.
LNG was already utilized as a fuel by LNG
carriers in the 1960s to take advantage of the
fuel available on board in the form of boil-off
gas. The irst LNG-powered vessel was built in
2000, and at present there are about 75 LNG-
powered ships in operation, excluding LNG
carriers, and another 80 under construction.
In addition, 40 ships have been designed to
be ready for LNG retroit. The growth in LNG-
powered ships is expected to accelerate towards
2025. LNG is currently a particularly attractive
fuel option for vessels operating in North
American waters that have to comply with the
Tier III NOX emission standards. The adoption
of a 0.5% sulphur limit in European waters in
2020, in addition to the current ECA, could spur
accelerated growth of the LNG-fuelled shipping
leet. A number of other sulphur-free fuels can
also be used as a substitute for oil in dual-fuel
engines. Amongst them, biodiesel, LPG, and
methanol are of particular interest because they
also offer signiicant reductions in emissions of
NOX and particulate matter (PM).
Fuel availability and pricing will be decisive
factors for widespread adoption of any
alternative fuels in shipping. The development of
bunkering infrastructure is a prerequisite to allow
large, ocean-going ships to use alternative fuels.
Other factors, such as the high cost of building
or retroitting dual fuel ships, the size of fuel
tanks, and concerns about safety, may limit the
uptake of such fuels.
A controversial option for powering large
vessels is nuclear power. Its main advantages are
virtually zero CO2 emissions and a propulsion
system suitable for ships that need to be
self-supporting for long periods. However,
due to signiicant controversy around nuclear
power, and public concerns related to potential
consequences from accidents, it seems unlikely
that nuclear propulsion will be widely adopted
in shipping within the next 10-20 years. The
outlook may change if societal acceptance of
nuclear power increases and there is stronger
policy push to reduce gaseous emissions from
shipping.
Comparison of well-to-propeller greenhouse gas emissions for alternative fuels
0
20
40
60
80
100
Me
tha
no
l (R
em
ote
Ga
s)
Gra
ms
of
CO
2 e
qu
iva
len
t e
mis
sio
ns
pe
r m
eg
ajo
ule
He
avy F
ue
l O
il
LN
G O
nsh
ore
Qa
tar
Bio
die
sel
(Ra
pe
see
d)
Eth
an
ol
(Su
ga
r C
an
e)
Liqu
efied
Bio
gas
Me
tha
no
l (B
lac
k L
iqu
or)
Nu
cle
ar
Po
we
r
Rene
wab
le L
iqui
fied
Hyd
rog
en
Liqu
efied
Hyd
roge
nfr
om
Na
tura
l G
as
Tank-To-Propeller
Well-To-Tank
48 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
SAFETY
ENHANCEMENT
REMOTE OPERATIONS AND AUTONOMY
As sensor technologies and connectivity become
more robust, remotely operated vessels, or even
unmanned vessels, could become a reality. The
use of sophisticated robotics and automation
are now commonplace for many land-based
industries, particularly manufacturing. In the
past decade, we have seen the deployment of a
number of unmanned autonomous and remotely
operated vehicles, including unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs), remotely operated underwater
vehicles (ROVs), e.g., in the offshore sector
servicing subsea installations, and signiicant
steps towards development of driverless trucks
and autonomous cars.
For shipping, remote operations require
automation and high reliability of the engine and
other integrated systems. In addition, advanced
navigation systems and sophisticated algorithms
to maintain a vessel’s course in changing sea and
weather conditions, avoid collisions, and operate
the ship eficiently, within speciied safety
parameters are prerequisites. Such systems rely
on robust and secure communication via satellite
and land-based systems. Onboard ship control
and decision management systems can be
adjusted to allow different levels of autonomy,
but with further advances in these enabling
technologies, we can imagine a completely
autonomous ship that reports to shore-based
operators only when human input is needed, or
if emergency situations arise.
Shipping will beneit from developments in the
offshore, aviation, aerospace, and automotive
industries, which have been the drivers for
advances in automation and remote operations.
It is likely that shipping will irst apply these
technologies to instrumented machinery, and
then gradually to vessel navigation. These
solutions will increasingly rely on sensor
technologies and computers to manage
onboard systems from remote locations. As
more onboard systems become automated, the
crew will be reduced, and more decisions will be
made from shore-based control centres.
These control centres will be responsible for
operating vessels in congested sea-lanes,
or in proximity to ports and terminals, and
in emergency situations. To manage these
tasks, control centres will be equipped with
system simulators designed to select optimal
routing procedures and interfaces with land-
based supply chain networks. Onshore control
centres will also be responsible for the asset
integrity management of the ship and the
possible downtime related to the failure of
onboard equipment. As with many emerging
technologies, the ability of the system to manage
the interaction between man and machine
will be critical. Such systems should provide
accurate representations of risk and allow
humans to take full control of vessels from a
remote location when necessary.
The irst conceptual prototypes of fully
autonomous ships are here already, and many
ship types will be delivered with remote/
autonomous operation capabilities towards
2025. Ports will also have automated systems
for loading and unloading of cargo. However,
although fully automated ships are expected to
enter the market by 2025, regulatory barriers
will hinder operation of autonomous ships in
international waters, limiting its application to
country waters and short sea shipping in the
near future.
Expected readiness of autonomy enabling technologies in shipping
Remote monitoring of propulsion systems
Remote control of navigational systems
Sensor and connectivity based navigational assistance
Autonomous ships – Control centers
Remote controlof propulsionsystems
2015
Tech
no
log
y d
eve
lop
me
nt
sta
te
Research and development stage
Pilot and demonstration stage
Operationaldeployment
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 49
REAL-TIME ANALYTICS FOR ASSET AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Safety
(RAMS) and performability techniques are used
in many engineering ields to design and operate
industrial assets to meet safety standards and
to optimize overall system performance. While
these techniques have proven value in system
design, their application in operations has been
lacking, although they offer a valuable approach
for evaluating and comparing different scenarios
from a risk-based perspective. However, in the
next decade a new set of RAMS techniques that
leverage the use of (near) real-time monitoring of
operational parameters will increasingly be used
by the shipping industry.
The most immediate expected beneits of these
types of real-time analytics in supporting Asset
and Operation Management will be to enable
owners to reduce the number and frequency
of inspections and repairs, and allow them to
anticipate and replace damaged and worn parts
with minimal resources and downtime. Similarly,
these systems can map a ship’s condition status
in relation to safety risk levels, allowing for
dynamic adjustment of safety barriers in order to
maintain minimum safety levels. With real-time
access to a vessel’s current and future status,
maintenance and operational personnel will have
more accurate information on system capabilities,
allowing for timely action to increase reliability,
availability, safety, and eficiency.
In order to achieve the full potential of real-time
analytics, further development of a number of
technologies is necessary. The performance
of real-time analytics is a function of predictive
data that can indicate a developing failure.
Therefore, smart sensor networks will be critical,
as their ability to work together offers a detailed
and accurate picture of various systems. In turn,
real-time analytics will rely not only on how
sensors are conigured and linked, but also on
the quality of ship-to-shore connectivity. Due
to limited onboard storage and processing
power, data will be analysed on board and/
or sent to shore, where it will be managed by
increasingly sophisticated software tools and
computing power. These tools will provide full-
range analytics and visualization capabilities,
and be seamlessly linked to onboard sensor and
actuation devices via the Internet.
Advances in how organizations run their work
processes following a data-driven approach
will enable a dramatic shift in how the industry
approaches asset management. As an example,
this could involve moving from a scheduled
maintenance approach, a process that is
often driven by supplier recommendations, to
condition-based maintenance, driven by the
actual condition of onboard components and
systems. This shift alone may require a new
type of agreement between service providers
and vessel owners and operators, perhaps
through agreed levels of performance that are
measurable at any time.
Data quality will represent a critical factor for the
successful implementation of real-time analytics.
The adoption of a data-driven philosophy for
asset operations, such as reliability-centred
maintenance, lifecycle asset management, and
system engineering, will therefore become
even more important in the maritime industry.
Furthermore, new standards to verify the
quality of real-time data streams will need to
be developed. Similarly, the ability to trust
data analytics and black box models will also
need to be demonstrated, and new formal
approaches for analytics veriication must be
developed. As more stakeholders will rely on
information retrieved from several sources, it will
be necessary to guarantee consistency across
industry stakeholders’ data lakes and information
models. Last, but not least, for a full industry-wide
implementation, new standard and technological
solutions for data governance and cybersecurity
will be needed.
50 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
NOVEL DESIGN AND
MANUFACTURING
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
Additive manufacturing, also known as 3D
printing, is a manufacturing method that builds
objects by laying down successive thin layers
of material until the object takes its inal form.
Signiicant advances in 3D printing technology
over the last decade are transforming the way in
which products are designed, prototyped, and
manufactured. It has fewer design restrictions
that constrain conventional manufacturing
processes, and has the potential to shorten
manufacturing time signiicantly. A major aircraft
engine manufacturer claims that 3D printing
has reduced manufacturing time for some
applications by almost a third.
These advances offer possibilities for novel
designs, as well as more lightweight products,
with shorter production times and reduced
costs. The technology is already being used
for rapid prototyping, but it is now gradually
being integrated into existing manufacturing
infrastructure, for example in the automotive
and aircraft-manufacturing industries. This
lexibility is extremely useful when designing
products with custom features, which can
be beneicial when product customization is
important. Additive manufacturing can also
improve responsiveness to market demands
and generally uses only the material necessary
to produce a component, thereby driving down
the amount of waste and overall material use.
Although, oil & gas and maritime industries
constitute only about 5% of the total additive
manufacturing market, it is anticipated that its
reach in these industries will increase rapidly.
The US Navy has started testing the technology
on board ships, to evaluate the potential of
producing spare parts and other equipment as
needed. However, this requires trained personnel
on board, and the printer will be subject to the
motions of the ship, potentially affecting product
quality. A more promising approach would be
to use the technology in the production phase,
for lightweight parts or complex parts that
cannot be manufactured easily with conventional
techniques. This could lead to improvements
in energy eficiency of the ships. Another
application could be producing spare parts
locally in ports around the world, as required,
thereby reducing delivery times and costs.
While additive manufacturing presents many
future possibilities in innovative manufacturing,
there are some risks that should be considered.
Qualiication and certiication may present
signiicant challenges because of the potential
for variability in speciied properties. The
traditional qualiication methods of repeated
testing of an end product produced from a
centralized facility will not be suficient. The
distributed nature of additive manufacturing
means that the product variability determined
for one location may be entirely different
for another location owing to software and
hardware differences, or other factors. An
additional or ‘second order’ downside of
additive manufacturing for shipping is that the
distributed production of manufactured goods
may reduce the overall demand for shipping of
goods – a trend that will warrant careful analysis
as additive manufacturing reaches scale.
Worldwide 3D Printing Industry Forecast
0
5
Software
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
10
15
20
Services
Materials
Ma
rke
t va
lue
(b
illio
ns
US
D)
Equipment
Source: Smarttechmarkets Publishing (2014)
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 51
NEW SHIP TYPES
Shipping is a diversiied and continuously
evolving industry, serving an ever-greater
variety of customers and needs. These range
from cruise ship passengers to offshore
infrastructure support, and from transportation
of commodities in bulk to transportation of
high-value products. A wide variety of ships is
available, designed to accommodate the needs
of each segment, and the mix and size of vessels
changes constantly in response to technological
advances and economic developments. Typical
examples are the decline of reefers, due to the
proliferation of refrigerated containers, and the
rise of LNG carriers due to the increased need
for transportation of natural gas.
It is very likely that the recent trend towards
larger container vessels will continue over the
next ten years. Larger ships offer substantially
improved transport eficiency over smaller
ones, and the on-going consolidation in the
container segment will enhance this trend.
Other developments, such as the Trans-Paciic
Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, the widening
of the Panama and Suez Canals, and the
expansion of several ports for handling larger
vessels all signal even larger ships in the next
decade.
Future ship types will include vessels for
offshore wind farm development, to serve the
needs of a rapidly growing industry. These
vessels will cover all activities from installation
to maintenance and support. With wind farm
developments further from the coast, vessels
designed for safe and comfortable transfer of
technicians from the shore to turbines will be in
high demand.
In an effort to reduce road congestion, local
pollution, and trafic accidents, many countries
are considering moving more cargo from
the road to short sea shipping. New vessels,
speciically designed for such operations, have
the potential to contribute substantially to
improving eficiency and reducing costs. These
vessels can be tailor-designed for speciic
geographical areas and trade volumes, in order
to optimize their size and eficiency. Due to the
nature of the trade, advanced solutions such as
electriication can be adopted.
VISION: SHIPPING
KNUT ØRBECK-NILSSEN
CEO, MARITIME
In my vision of the future for shipping I see an industry that
is still at the heart of global trade, bringing people together,
and keeping the world’s economy vital and growing. But the
industry itself, the vessels, the infrastructure, and the systems
that connect them could change substantially.
The biggest change will be the way ships are powered. The
world’s modern l eet will rely on a broader range of fuels and
propulsion solutions. On the long haul trades, we could see
a move toward dual-fuel engines, or pure gas fuelled, as well
as other gases like ethane, and newly developed renewable
biofuels becoming a part of the mix.
The use of batteries to complement main engines will also
grow, to smooth power delivery, drive auxiliary systems, and
maximize engine efi ciency. In some sectors, such as ferries
and coastal vessels, the trend could even be toward vessels
powered completely or largely by electricity.
Connectivity between ship and shore will have vastly
improved and will be much more common. The l eet of the
future will be continually communicating with its managers
and perhaps even with a “trafi c control” system that is
continually monitoring vessel positions, manoeuvres and
speeds.
Fleet managers will be able to analyse this data, enabling
them to advise the captain and crew on navigation, weather
52 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025
patterns, fuel consumption, and port arrival. This will help
to reduce the risks of human error leading to accidents,
increase cost efi ciency, and help to improve environmental
performance.
Some of these data will also be shared. Ports will use the
data to help them plan and optimize loading and unloading.
Classii cation societies will analyse the data to check on
the status of machinery and hull, letting the owners and
operators know when a survey is required based on the
condition of the systems, helping them to reduce downtime
and avoid unnecessary maintenance.
At DNV GL we are excited to be a part of this coming
transformation. We will continue to work with stakeholders
across the maritime world to realize the potential of our
industry and make sure that the outlook for shipping
tomorrow is brighter than today.
Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 53
Oil & Gas 58
Power 62
Vision 66
EN
ER
GY
56 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
WEAK PUSH FROM POLICY AND REGULATIONSTransformation of the energy sector relies
primarily on market-based incentives,
allowing countries to tailor mechanisms to
national needs and circumstances.
Up to one i fth more energy will be consumed by the world in
2025 compared to today. Where that energy is sourced will have
started to differ from today’s energy mix, especially in the power
sector. The transition is mainly being driven by:
• Cost pressures in the oil and gas industry;
• The imperative to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions;
• The rapid decline in the cost of electricity generated from
solar and wind; and
• The emergence of a more distributed and consumer-centric
power system.
These factors will drive technology development, and so too will
new policy and regulatory measures that will inl uence energy
source preferences and spur deployment of new solutions.
These forces are likely to result in the following changes in
global energy l ows between 2015 and 2025:
• Strong growth in natural gas production;
• Growth in nuclear power generation;
• More than 50% growth in the use of biomass and waste for
power generation and biofuels;
• The peak and decline of coal production;
• A sharp decline in oil-i red power generation; and
• A booming renewable power generation sector, more than
doubling global capacity.
The pace and strength of these energy l ows are delicately
balanced on the fulcrum of policy and regulation. This is
especially the case for the transition to renewables, and the
associated reductions in annual GHG emissions relative to a
‘business as usual’ trajectory, which is strongly dependent on
policy intervention.
The call for subsidies and other policy mechanisms to secure
domestic energy supply is likely to intensify in the face of
STATE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN 2025
Demand for fossil fuels
Demand for all fossil fuels continues to follow the growth trajectory of the gross world product.
Oil price Lack of concerted action by OPEC drives oil price volatility.
Energy security Energy security is assured through trade agreements at national or regional level.
CO2 pricing No signii cant carbon price implemented across the energy sector.
Uptake of solar PV Global capacity is less than 1 TWp.
Uptake of wind Global capacity is less than 1 TW. Limited growth in offshore wind.
Uptake of CCS Fewer than 10 large-scale projects without associated hydrocarbon production.
Uptake of biofuels 50% growth to 2025.
Deployment of nuclear
20% growth to 2025.
Uptake of EVs Less than 20 million EVs by 2025
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 57
STRONG PUSH FROM POLICY AND REGULATIONSGovernments predominantly use
regulatory measures to force energy
sector transformations, rather than rely on
incentives.
prolonged cost pressures in the oil and gas industry and
oil price volatility. Should oil prices remain low to 2018,
the attractiveness of oil plays in Arctic regions, deep water
environments, and shale oil and heavy oil i elds will remain low
in the absence of new incentives.
A strong growth in offshore wind will require continuation
of subsidies throughout the coming decade. In this period,
offshore wind will continue its learning curve of 14% cost
reduction per doubling of installed capacity, driven by the
increasing size of new wind turbines and wind farms along
with logistic and technological improvements. However, grid
compatibility and management of generation variability will
remain as key challenges for large-scale deployment of wind.
Solar PV will grow faster than any other source of electricity in
the next decade, with its learning curve expected to continue
decreasing by around 24% for every doubling of installed
capacity. On-site (residential and commercial) solar PV has
already reached grid parity in several regions, but still needs
subsidies to cover the inconvenience and cost of switching to
this new energy source. Utility-scale PV will start competing with
traditional sources of peak and baseload power by 2025.
As solar PV reaches or exceeds grid parity, it becomes attractive
for homeowners and companies to invest in on-site solar PV
systems to reduce grid dependence and become electricity
prosumers. However, consumer-centric distributed renewable
power systems will still require grid connection for l exibility
services. Rapid up-scaling and cost reduction of on-site storage
solutions will require a push from regulation or policy to reach
economies of scale. Once (autonomous) microgrids become
reliable, they will likely trigger disruption of the power system,
and the emergence of new business models.
STATE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN 2025
Demand for fossil fuels
Coal demand peaks, oil demand declines, and natural gas demand shows moderate growth.
Oil price Policy mechanisms dampen oil price volatility.
Energy security International energy policy drives transition towards global low carbon energy security.
CO2 pricing Carbon pricing implemented across the energy sector in most developed countries.
Uptake of solar PV Global capacity is close to 3 TWp.
Uptake of wind Global capacity is more than 2 TW. Moderate growth in offshore wind.
Uptake of CCS 20-30 large-scale projects without associated hydrocarbon production.
Uptake of biofuels Lignocellulosic biofuels become cost-competitive with fossil transportation fuels by 2025.
Deployment of nuclear
60% growth to 2025.
Uptake of EVs More than 80 million EVs by 2025
58 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
FULLY AUTOMATED DRILLING OPERATIONS
Drilling is a signiicant part of oil companies’
expenditures. Exploration and appraisal
wells are high-risk, high-cost activities, while
production well drilling is typically half of total
ield development CAPEX. In addition to these
concerns comes safety: incidents involving
personnel or the environment during drilling
operations can and do break companies. Fully
automated drilling operations have the potential
to increase the speed and safety of drilling
operations, while simultaneously reducing costs.
Advanced automation technology can
fundamentally change how a well is drilled,
but requires a complete redesign of drilling-
related processes in order to reap the full
beneits of automation. To enable continuous
drilling operations, where a well is constructed
without any interruptions to the process, several
technologies need to be in place, including
automated drill pipe handling, managed
pressure drilling, single trip drilling, and
monitoring and diagnostics.
Automated drill pipe handling: Signiicantly
reduces the risks to personnel by removing the
need for people on the drill loor. Automated
solutions are able to cater for using longer
pipe sections, reducing the number of
connections, and by that decreasing the time
needed, especially for tripping and completion
operations.
Managed pressure drilling (MPD): A closed,
pressurized system that continuously and
automatically controls the bottomhole pressure
in the well. Enhanced pressure control increases
safety and reduces downtime during complex
drilling operations through improved detection
of, and response to, anomalies. In addition, MPD
enables drilling of wells with narrow pressure
gradient windows. Continuous circulation of
drilling mud ensures the correct pressure in
the well during all phases of the operation and
reduces the chance of drillpipe jamming.
Single trip drilling / drilling while completing:
Depends on automation and MPD, and further
accelerates the drilling and completion of a well.
Removing the requirement to re-enter the well
multiple times also improves safety, especially in
challenging areas.
Drilling process monitoring and diagnostics:
Linking topside and downhole measurements
with analyses feeding directly into the
automated control is the next step following
the array of current measure-while-drilling
capabilities. Automated drilling systems can
utilize a larger number of data points to make
correct decisions, especially when needing
to adapt to dynamic events, and present
relevant data to the operators in charge without
overwhelming them in critical situations.
Automated drilling technology is expected
to reduce drilling time and cost by 30-50%
compared with a conventional rig. This will
make more wells economically feasible,
enabling drilling of smaller targets and
adding a higher number of inill production
wells. The implications of automation will be
felt throughout the performance of drilling
operations, as automated rigs will change the
roles of the different parties involved: rig owner,
service companies, and the operator.
OIL & GAS
Image: © Huisman Equipment B.V.
Image: Courtesy Statoil
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 59
SIMPLER AND SMARTER COMPLETIONS
In order to be able to drain a reservoir eficiently,
avoiding excessive water or gas production, it
may be necessary to close individual production
zones in wells as they experience gas or water
breakthrough. Completing a well is a time
consuming and costly operation that requires a
rig, and altering the completion once in place
has traditionally been both expensive and
cumbersome.
Smart completions include monitoring and
precise control of production zones to improve
recovery. The systems involve either autonomous
or remote-controlled choking back of high gas
and water producing zones. Low-cost smart
completions, which can be easily reconigured
without a rig, have the potential to improve
production from complex reservoirs signiicantly,
including from thin oil pay zones. These
completions can allow more optimal locations
of drainage points for a high recovery factor.
Smart completions with multiple drainage points
per well, which can be easily opened or closed,
can fundamentally improve well performance
through improved reservoir management
at reduced cost. Moreover, by being able to
limit the volumes of associated gas or water
production, the residual processing capacity is
available for other wells.
SMARTER SUBSEA TIE-INS
The development of multiphase low
capabilities has enabled subsea production by
simple, effective, and safe wellstream transport
from the wellhead to the processing facility.
Despite being enabled by advanced low
modelling, subsea systems have traditionally
been quite simple from a control and
monitoring perspective. This simplicity has
allowed subsea systems to deliver reliable
production from 5,000 wells around the globe.
Subsea system integrity and main low
parameters are monitored from remote
control rooms 24/7. In 2025, we expect subsea
solutions to rely actively on monitoring and
data analytics to achieve the necessary low
conditions for stable production. Better
prediction of low-related problems leads to
quicker action to assure continuous low, which
has a signiicant impact on ield economy
through reduced downtime. More importantly,
improved control over the low and process
conditions allows operation closer to the
physical limits for a stable multiphase low.
This is especially relevant for heavier or waxy
oil, gas with high liquid content, and large
sand production. This is expected to enable
simpliications in ield development solutions,
e.g., through longer tie-ins and simpler
designs.
The increased level of monitoring will
also cover the integrity of the system and
the surrounding environment, including
improved leak detection. Data gathered from
subsea systems will also improve inspection,
maintenance, and repair strategies. In sum, this
will help designers and operators to safeguard
a stable uninterrupted low, while boosting
conidence in the integrity of the system.
60 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
AUTONOMOUS INSPECTION OF PIPELINES
Monitoring of onshore and offshore pipelines
is expected to increase owing to the growing
demand for energy in the face of challenges
such as criminal activities (tapping and
stealing of oil), terrorist attacks, and climate
change effects (e.g., landslides).
Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs)
performing regular pipeline inspection will
provide a more eficient approach than using
remote operated underwater vehicles (ROV).
AUVs will be equipped with sonars, cameras,
and sensors to sniff for a leakage of methane
or oil.
For onshore pipelines, unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) will be used, but presently
their use is limited due to the lack of
regulations and procedures for operation in
the civil airspace. One scenario is to use high-
altitude long endurance UAVs that operate
above the commercial air-trafic heights
(> 17 km), equipped with highly sophisticated
sensor systems including radar, optical, and
infrared imagers. Today’s UAVs are limited
by range and endurance, but solar- powered
drones are being developed for military and
commercial use.
Both AUVs and UAVs were irst developed for
military purposes and we will see increasing
application of military technologies for civilian
and commercial use.
BIODEGRADABLE POLYMERS FOR ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY
Water is injected into conventional oilields
to increase recovery by improving the
sweep across the reservoir and to maintain
reservoir pressure. Owing to variability
in reservoir properties and the fact that
water is less viscous than oil, injected water
inds the path of least resistance from the
injection well to the production well. The
consequence is a less effective sweep than
desired, and large oil volumes remaining
outside the main routes taken by the water.
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) generally
refers to measures to achieve a higher
oil recovery than that obtained by water
injection alone. EOR typically aims to
enhance the sweep area or mobilize
otherwise immobile oil, and use of polymers
is one means for enhancing the sweep area.
A polymer is a long chain of molecules,
and, by adding polymers, the viscosity of
the injection water can be increased to
resemble the properties of the oil more
closely, thereby increasing the swept area.
In addition, by adding other polymers, a
gel-like plug can be formed, diverting the
water around the plug and forcing the water
to take new routes through the reservoir.
One challenge with using additives in
injection water is subsequent production
of injection water with additives. An
environmentally friendly alternative could
be provided by degradable, non-toxic
biopolymers, typically sugar-based, which
are readily available and suitable for large-
scale deployment by 2025.
Image: Courtesy Kongsberg Maritime
Image: Courtesy Statoil
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 61
RIGLESS PLUGGING & ABANDONMENT
At the end of a ield’s lifetime, all wells must be
permanently plugged and secured to avoid
future leaks. Current technologies for plugging
and abandonment (P&A) generally require
a rig to perform the time-consuming task of
permanent plugging, which equates with high
expenditure. P&A currently accounts for 40-50%
of total decommissioning costs. Given that rig
slots could also be used for value-generating
drilling of exploration, appraisal, or production
wells, P&A, which is pure cost, is typically left
for later. In the North Sea alone, there are 8,000
wells that have not been adequately plugged.
New P&A technologies are needed for
permanent plugging of wells much more cost
effectively. In order to achieve this, the operation
needs to be performed without a rig; this
implies that P&A should be performed with
the well tubing in place. Suitable technologies
are presently operational in some regions and
for some low-risk well types, but most wells
currently require rig-assisted P&A.
Rigless P&A offers large cost savings, but
needs to include both a risk-based approach
and revised regulations that deine what is
suficient for long-term integrity, taking into
account well-speciic risks. Both governments
and oil companies have a common interest
in plugging old wells to minimize the risk of
future oil spills from wells with temporary plugs,
and in accelerating uptake of low-cost P&A
technologies.
LNG AS FUEL FOR TRUCKS AND RAILWAY
Greater use of natural gas in transport is
one way of improving urban air quality and
reducing emissions. Regulatory limitations on
NOx emissions and air particulate matter levels
have been introduced stepwise over the past
decade, requiring the transportation industry
to use more cleanly burning fuels or to install
ilters and equipment to clean the engine
exhaust. In addition, gas prices are lower and
more stable than diesel. In Europe, LNG-fuelling
infrastructure is well underway and will connect
12 countries (LNG Blue Corridor). Interest by
commercial leet owners in LNG-fuelled vehicles
has risen signiicantly over the past decade,
owing to on-going concerns about emissions,
a better spread between lower-priced natural
gas and higher-priced diesel fuel, and improved
operational eficiencies.
Only a quarter of the world’s railway lines are
electriied; in Europe, more than 50% of railway
lines are electriied; in North America nearly
none. According to US Energy Information
Administration, LNG may gain 35% of the US rail
fuel market share by 2040.
With current low gas prices in US, there will be a
push towards LNG as fuel in the US market that
will probably spread to other countries. LNG
fuel in the US is now produced from LNG peak-
shaving plants, but with more US liquefaction
production capacity, use of LNG as fuel will
become more attractive.
Projection of natural gas demand for freight rail and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the United States 2015-2040
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Natural gas for rail freight
Natural gas for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles
Pe
rce
nt
of
en
erg
y d
em
an
d f
or
tra
nsp
ort
Wells to be decommissioned on the UK continental shelf
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Future Rigless Partial Completion
Future Rigless with Entire Completion
Rig Required
Plugged Wellbore Requiring Annulus Plugs
Rigless
Subseawells
Platformwells
Source: Scottish Enterprise, Decom North Sea and Arup (2014)
Source: US Energy Inormation Administration (2014)
62 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
POWER
NEW MATERIALS
The development of new materials plays key
roles in science and technology. In energy,
these range from solar panels coatings
and new battery chemistries to cheaper
permanent magnets and hybrid reinforced
composites for (direct drive) wind turbines
blades.
For solar PV technologies, materials such
as graphene have the potential to increase
eficiencies dramatically. Whereas silicon-
based cells currently achieve 15-20%
eficiency, a solar cell made from stacking
a single graphene sheet and a single
molybdenum disulphide sheet will achieve
about a 1-2% eficiency. Stacking several of
these 1 nm thick layers boosts the overall
eficiency dramatically. Then, further along
the horizon, materials like halide perovskite
(also called hybrid solar cells) show even
greater promise.
For power converter technologies, silicon-
based power electronics is reaching its
limits. Other wide bandgap semiconductors
promise better performance. These materials
are capable of higher switching frequencies
(kHz) and blocking voltages (upward of
tens to hundreds of kV), while providing
for lower switching losses, better thermal
conductivities, and the ability to withstand
higher operating temperatures. While issues
like defect density control for silicon carbide
and the extremely high decomposition
pressures for bulk gallium nitride production
still remain, they will increase the reliability
and eficiency of next generation electric
grids.
WIND ENERGY
Wind energy continues to grow rapidly
worldwide. It exceeds 20% annual penetration
in a number of European electricity grids, with
Denmark exceeding 40% in 2015. In many
areas, onshore wind now delivers the lowest
cost of energy and, by 2025, only solar energy
will achieve lower costs than wind in areas with
good solar irradiance.
Wind turbines are now manufactured in
very large numbers and represent a mature
technology. Still, signiicant developments
continue. Turbine sizes for the offshore market
are increasing, driven by the high cost of
foundations and installation. Turbines rated up
to 8MW and with diameters greater than 170m
are already installed, with designs reaching 12
MW and 200m. For deeper offshore waters,
where bottom-mounting is prohibitive, loating
turbines are starting to be piloted commercially,
and are likely to achieve full-scale deployment
by 2025, taking advantage of simpliied
installation and standardised mass-produced
units, thus opening up huge new potential.
By 2025, multi-rotor concepts may appear,
beneitting from the mass-production of larger
numbers of smaller rotors.
Further developments in turbine technology
include light, lexible blades and aerodynamic
control devices, innovations in transmission
systems, new sensors and smart control systems.
Equally important is the intelligent management
of large numbers of units, using condition
monitoring and central data acquisition and
analysis to optimize operation and maintenance.
More advanced controls are being developed
both at wind turbine and wind farm level. LiDAR
technology may be used to identify approaching
turbulence, allowing the controller to optimize
turbine performance. Greater use of measured
and estimated load data allows the operation
of turbines and wind farms to be tailored
dynamically, enhancing economic performance
as environmental and electricity market
conditions change. An example is to reduce
power output to preserve component life when
turbulence is high, or electricity prices are low,
or forecast production is exceeded. Within
timescales of just a few seconds, controllers may
transiently increase or decrease power output in
response to grid frequency variations, increasing
grid frequency stability and facilitating higher
wind penetrations. Wind farm controllers can
adjust the behaviour of individual turbines to
minimise wake interactions between turbines,
increasing farm production while reducing
fatigue loads to extend life. In addition,
controllers will be able to adjust aggregate
active and reactive wind farm power in response
to grid requirements.
05 15 25 35 45 55
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dis
tan
ce t
o s
ho
re (
km
)
Average water depth (m)
In operation Under construction Approved
Trend
Distance to shore and average water depth of a representative selection of European wind farms. The size of the bubbles are indicative of the capacity of the wind farms.
Source: The European Wind Energy Association (2012)
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 63
SOLAR PV
PV systems have many different applications,
ranging from small rooftop-mounted (< 20 kW),
to utility-scale (>1 MW), to off-grid applications,
and as such there are many differing “grid
parities”. A PV-system for a residential roof,
for instance, competes with the retail price of
electricity, whereas a utility-scale PV system
competes with the wholesale price of electricity.
Solar power is technology-driven, and unlike
extractive industries, its cost-curve will continue
to trend downwards. The present worldwide
boom in solar is matched by an equally large
R&D effort. A wide range of technologies, from
conventional silicon to organic-based cells, is
being investigated. Each new innovation will
accelerate the already rapid uptake of solar
energy use.
Solar PV has shown exponential growth almost
since the start of grid-connected deployment.
The learning curve of PV shows that the module
price decreases by over 20% for every doubling
of capacity. Inverters also show steady learning
curves and lifetime expectations have improved
signiicantly. The balance of system cost is
expected to fall, mainly through improvements
in eficiency of the modules. Combining the
expected market growth and the historical cost
reduction, it is clear that by 2025 solar PV will be
the cheapest form of electricity in many regions
of the world, driving several changes in the
power system.
ELECTRICITY STORAGE
Electricity can be stored in a direct way in
superconductive coils or (super) capacitors.
However, electricity is usually stored in a non-
electrical form, such as electrochemically in
batteries, as moving mass in a lywheel, in hydro
reservoirs (pumped hydro), in pressurized gases,
and in heated or cooled substances like molten
salts and liquid nitrogen. Power to gas (to
hydrogen or methane and back) is an option for
seasonal storage.
Over the next decade we expect a steep decline
in battery prices and a correspondingly rapid
increase in home energy storage solutions. This
development, which is driven in part by the
rapid rise of renewables in the energy mix, will
pave the way for a growing number of electricity
prosumers. However, new rules and regulations
need to be in place for energy storage to play a
key role in the utility system.
Analysis of residual loads reveals the need
for different electricity discharge durations.
Different electricity storage technologies will
be optimized for different discharge duration
and power output requirements. Storage
technologies with a discharge duration of
several hours, such as chemical batteries,
can, for instance, perform peak-shaving for
consumers, whereas storage technologies with a
high power rating and long discharge durations
are most suited for energy applications on a
systems scale, such as load shifting, renewable
forecast error back-up and frequency restoration
services to the transmission system operator
(TSO).
0.100.001 0.01 0.1 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000 10,000
1.00
10
100
Decline of solar PV cost relative to installed capacity
Co
st p
er
wa
tt-p
ea
k
Cumulated Produced Capacity (GW)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2010
2013 2014
2025
UPSPower Quality
System power ratings, module size
Dis
cha
rge
tim
e a
t ra
ted
po
we
r
Bulk powermanagement
T & D grid supportLoad shifting
Application range for alternative energy storage technologies
1 kW 1 GW10 kW 100 kW 100 MW1 MW 10 MW
Se
con
ds
Pumpedhydro
Compressed airEnergy storage
NaS battery
NiMH
High-power flywheels
High-powersupercapacitors
Li-ion battery
NaNiCl2 battery
NiCd
Flow batteries: Zn-Cl, Zn-BrVanadium redox, New chemistries
Min
ute
sH
ou
rs
Advanced lead-acid battery
Lead-acidbattery
High-energysupercapacitors
Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015)
Source: B. Dunn, H. Kamath and J.-M. Tarascon (2011)
64 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
DEMAND RESPONSE MANAGEMENT
Demand Response Management (DRM), of
electric demand of heat pumps, EV charging
and industrial heating and cooling processes,
is potentially the most economic measure to
create lexibility in response to variations in
renewable power generation. DRM is performed
by either controlling customer demand directly
(dispatchable DRM) or by issuing a time-of-use
price, rewarding customers that respond to this
(non-dispatchable DRM).
Both dispatchable DRM and non-dispatchable
DRM have major disadvantages. Dispatchable
DRM can be quite intrusive to customers
because it is dificult to adjust measures to
changing customer circumstances. Examples
are remotely controlled air-conditioning and
load-shedding contracts. Non-dispatchable
DRM offers much less lexibility because it relies
on the willingness of residents or businesses to
adjust their electricity consumption in response
to price incentives. Examples are day/night
tariffs and critical peak pricing.
Technological developments are starting to
make DRM solutions possible that combine
the beneits of both approaches without the
disadvantages, resulting in much more viable
DRM options that create much-needed lexibility
for wind and solar integration. By 2025, DRM will
be an indispensable service to prosumers and,
as such, will provide retailers and aggregators
with a tool to differentiate their services in new
ways.
SMART ENERGY-PRODUCING BUILDINGS
Energy eficient measures such as improved
insulation and appliances such as heat pumps
and PV panels have become commonplace.
Attention is now shifting to the energy
performance of whole buildings and how they
may be smartly designed such that, on average,
they produce more energy than they need.
Within 10 years energy producing buildings will
be the standard for new residential properties in
many industrialized countries.
A vision of a smart energy-producing house is
one in which solar is the main source of energy.
Adding devices that have some lexibility in their
energy behaviour, like battery energy storage,
heat pumps, air-conditioning, and charging
of EVs enables further optimization of energy
use with smart self-learning thermostats. Smart
meters will make it possible to measure this
lexibility and monetize it.
While developments in solar and storage
may suggest that buildings will go “off grid”,
the opposite is more likely to occur. Buildings
have the potential to become energy hubs, an
invaluable asset in the management of power
systems, offering much-needed lexibility.
Instead of the grid providing buildings with
power, it will be the buildings themselves that
help the grid to remain stable by being able to
providing power to other residential, industrial,
and commercial customers from renewable
energy sources.
Expected savings from Demand Response programs for selected EU countries by 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce UK
Italy
Spai
n
Swed
enN
ether
lands
Gre
ece
Aust
riaD
enm
ark
Savings in Mt of CO2
Savings in number of 500 MW peak power plants
Solar photovoltaic
Heat pump water heater
Energy efficient lighting
Demand response appliances
Energy storage
Home recycling system
Smart meter
Water filtration
Home energy manager
Source: Capgemini 2008
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 65
CYBER-PHYSICAL POWER GRIDS
Increased adoption of renewable energy, the
desire to provide universal access to electricity,
and requirements for increased grid resilience
are driving an increasingly distributed power
grid. As distributed power grids evolve
the mostly stand-alone sub-systems will be
connected. Smart devices reacting on price
incentives from aggregators or retailers and
smart energy-producing buildings will also be
connected to the grid.
In 2025, power grids will have omnipresent
sensors within the grid. These will provide real-
time data, enabling operators to make decisions,
learn, and adapt to the variable behaviour of
renewable energy sources. The grids will have
features such as self-coni guration for resilience
and reduction of losses, self-adjustment
for voltage variations, self-optimization for
disturbance mitigation, and dispatch automatic
demand-response to avoid capacity
problems. In effect, power grids will become
cyber-physical energy systems –physical
entities controlled by digital control systems.
This introduces new challenges related to,
for instance, the validation of safety and
reliability, and new modelling techniques
will be required to design, test, and verify
the power grid management in a systems
context.
HYBRID GRIDS
In order to accommodate the increasing share
of renewable energy, electricity will need to be
transmitted over ever-longer distances. HVDC is
the solution of lowest cost in this regard. In the
next ten years, development of new converter
technology and protection systems will drive
implementation of HVDC grids onshore as well
as offshore, for example in the North Sea.
In the future a SuperGrid, combining ultra-
high voltage DC and AC systems, will be
introduced to make possible integration of
renewable energy, while ensuring security of
grid operation. Nevertheless, transformation of
existing power systems to SuperGrids will take
decades.
In 2025, hybrid grids will emerge during
the transition period that will be forged by
increasing penetration of l exible AC and HVDC
technology, allowing optimum control over
power transmission systems. The trend towards
a hybrid grid with embedded HVDC is already
visible in Europe, USA, and China. Hybrid
grids hold considerable promise, but they also
involve increasing levels of complexity. For
example, combining slow, mechanical controls,
typically associated with AC systems, and faster
electronically-controlled HVDC systems, involves
complex interactions.
Networks
Actuationinformation
Physicalsensing
Cyber space
Real space
Conceptual European supergrid structure connecting renewable power sources
Hydro WindBiomassSolar
HVDC
Offshore grid
HVAC
VISION: ENERGY
ELISABETH H. TØRSTAD
CEO OIL & GAS
In DNV GL we see clear signs of an energy transition to
a low carbon future. A future where a set of solar panels
on your roof may automatically trigger home storage and
participation in a demand response programme, or where
a mobile phone may help you make smart decisions, for
example, whether to drive an electric vehicle or take the local
liquei ed gas-fuelled bus for your daily commute.
Our transition to a low carbon economy must be rapid to
ensure that our planet’s ecosystems are able to provide a safe
future for the generations to come. In DNV GL, we believe
that the uptake of renewable and cleaner technologies
should be greatly accelerated, supported by balanced
regulations that promote safe and sustainable solutions,
including standardization and technical assurance, to provide
peace of mind to stakeholders and society.
Current trends suggest that, by 2025, renewable energy will
have outstripped coal as the largest source of electricity, and
will also be responsible for more than half of the additional
annual power generation capacity. The combination of gas
and renewables, with the added l exibility of various sources
of gas, such as biogas, will positively impact the environment
and lead to overall savings. This shift will help countries
accommodate higher electricity demand and accelerate
ELISABETH HARSTAD
CEO ENERGY
66 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025
progress towards the global goal of universal access to
electricity in a sustainable way.
Fossil fuels will remain a signii cant part of the energy
portfolio for decades, although the mix will change and
support a stronger position for gas. There is a big untapped
opportunity to extract and use fossil fuels in a way that
signii cantly lowers emissions. The oil and gas industry needs
to stop l aring and venting, make a step change in energy
efi ciency, for example, by using renewable energy for
power in the production and rei ning of hydrocarbons, and
massively deploy carbon capture and storage technologies.
We foresee the emergence of industry-wide fuel efi ciency
targets to reduce emissions from road and maritime
transport, escalate the demand for electric and hybrid energy
solutions for road and short-distance maritime transport, and
trigger growth in cleaner burning gas and biofuel solutions.
By 2025, global coal consumption will be in steady decline,
lower emission gas will become a major transport fuel, and
energy efi ciency measures will increasingly be enforced
in transport, industry and for buildings and consumer
appliances. Combined with the renewable shift in the power
sector, these measures will put the world on an urgently
needed, downward trending carbon emissions trajectory.
Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 67
Healthcare 72
Food supply 76
Vision 80
LIF
E S
CIE
NC
ES
PLA
NTS
Enviromentalsciences
IT medicine
Health sciences
Immunology
Genetics andgenomics
Food sciences
Tissueengineering
PH
YSI
CA
L
”Life sciences” is an umbrella term that describes the study of living organisms, their processes, interrelationships, and connections to the environment. In recent years, life sciences have become progressively more cross-disciplinary: exploring the potential of technology to improve the quality and longevity of physical, social, and mental health both for individuals and populations.
The life sciences encompass research into the
molecular, cellular, and functional basis of plants,
animals, humans, and ecosystems, as well as
investigation into how innovation can be adopted
and adapted into everyday life. In doing so, they
draw not only on biology, but also related subjects
such as bioethics, economics, anthropology,
organizational psychology, and human factors.
Life sciences are therefore essential in translating
research into practice in the pursuit of safer,
smarter, and greener futures.
Healthcare and health sciences:
Healthcare faces signiicant quality and
sustainability challenges. Provision of effective
healthcare to deliver human and animal health and
well-being for growing and ageing populations
relies, more than ever, on technological
innovations in the health sciences sector. Health
sciences comprise research that generates
new knowledge, as well as the application of
that knowledge in healthcare to improve well-
being, to prevent, cure, and manage diseases,
and to understand how humans and animals
function. It is inter-disciplinary, drawing on ields
such as genetics, immunology, microbiology,
neurobiology, epidemiology, biostatistics, public
health, and sociology, and their application in
medicine, nursing, health therapies, technology
and design.
Food supply chain and food sciences:
The food supply chain is under threat on
many fronts: new weather patterns, increasing
populations, human migration, and pollution of
land and water. Food sciences are core to the
creation of safe and sustainable supply chains
that can alleviate food poverty and end hunger.
Food sciences investigate the biochemical
composition of food and beverages and their raw
materials, the causes of their deterioration, and
the processes underpinning their growth, storage,
manufacture, and distribution. Food sciences are
multi-disciplinary, bringing together chemistry,
engineering, agriculture, nutrition, microbiology,
and home economics.
70 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
AN
IMA
LSHUMANS
Molecularbiology
Biotechnology
Biochemistry
Animal science
Agriculture
Medical imaging
PharmacologyFood sciences
Plant sciences
Aquaculture
MENTAL
SOC
IAL
LIFE
SCIENCES
Examples of life science disciplines.
The inner circles illustrate that each of these
disciplines must be treated as an integrated
part of the ecosystem to which they belong,
giving consideration to interrelationships
with the environment and relevant
physical, social, and mental
elements.
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 71
HEALTHCARE
Access to safe, effective, and eficient health services is a fundamental human right, yet healthcare faces signiicant and deepening threats to its ability to meet the needs of humanity. Ageing populations, emerging diseases, climate change, rising costs, inequitable access, and an unenviable safety record mean that continued deployment of traditional healthcare methods between now and 2025 is not a sustainable option.
The development and adoption of technology, through
collaboration between healthcare and life sciences, is seen as
crucial to overcoming many of these challenges. Technology
is a key enabler in the pursuit of safe and sustainable person-
centred healthcare for all, and has the potential to reduce
fragmentation, decrease costs, and improve the safety of the
patient experience.
Key technology trends that will have signiicant impact
towards 2025 include personalization of medicine, surgery
based on genomic information, and the use of additive
manufacturing (3D printing) and nanotechnology to make
cellular repairs or produce prostheses and organs tailored to
an individual’s body and lifestyle. Furthermore, the spread of
mobile health (mHealth) technology will improve access to
healthcare, as assessment and intervention will be possible to
access remotely.
The opportunity for technology to add value to healthcare
is dependent, however, on its adoption being managed
coherently. Grasping this opportunity demands a methodical
approach that ensures that risks to the successful use of
technology from a healthcare system perspective are
identiied and managed.
72 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
Qui
Basic info:59 years oldwidowedno children
Physical health:BMI 27.6smokes limited exercise
Mental health:feels lonelyhistory of depression
Nihaj
Basic info:81 years oldlives in remote villagemarried10 children
Physical health:high cholesterolraised blood pressure mild strokeblood in stool
Mental health:good
Olaf
Basic info:15 years oldlives with his parents
Physical health:crushed left arm, reduced functionality
Mental health:good
Qiu lives in a suburb of Xian, is 59 years old, and
has been an insulin-dependent diabetic since being
diagnosed at the age of 4. She is overweight, with
a BMI of 27.6. Qiu’s mother, who is 85 years old,
suffered reduced mobility following a fractured
neck of femur, and, no longer fully able to care for
herself, moved in with Qiu. She has recently been
diagnosed with the early stages of dementia. Qiu
is widowed and has no children and, since retiring,
feels lonely. She has a history of depression, smokes
10 cigarettes a day (although she is trying to quit),
takes limited exercise as she is afraid to leave her
mother alone for long periods, and says that she
“uses food as a comfort”. Qiu’s primary care worker
is a community nurse based in a clinic attached to
the District General Hospital in the centre of Xian.
Nihaj (81 years old) lives in a remote village in
Rajasthan with his wife Eisha (76 years old) and has an
extensive family support network. He takes statins for
cholesterol, plus an angiotensin-converting-enzyme
(ACE) inhibitor and diuretics for his blood pressure.
Nihaj suffered a mild stroke 18 months ago, but has no
remaining physical dei cits. He recently noticed blood
in his stool and an increased frequency in the need to
defecate. Health facilities in his district are limited to a
local health clinic with a health advisor and a weekly-
visiting assistant physician. The clinic is connected to
the regional hospital through a telemedicine service
for access to specialists, has a remotely controllable
diagnostic robot (also connected to the regional
hospital and used to support the assistant physician
in taking samples and performing minor surgery), and
has a supply chain that is serviced by unmanned aerial
vehicles that deliver medication and equipment.
Olaf is 15 years old. He lives with his parents
on Spitsbergen in the Svalbard archipelago. On
a family holiday in Spain 3 months ago he was
involved in a motorbike accident. His left arm
was crushed and had to be amputated above the
elbow. Olaf remained in Spain for one month for
his initial emergency treatment and the start of his
rehabilitation. He is now at home with his family.
Olaf has a temporary prosthetic as his arm heals
and his rehabilitation progresses. He is expecting
a new prosthetic arm shortly, which will be custom-
designed at a specialist hospital in Oslo before
being printed locally at Olaf’s GP surgery. Once he
has i nished growing, Olaf will be i tted with a bio-
prosthesis that will incorporate organic tissue grown
from his stem cells.
QUI’S LIFE CYCLE
NIHAJ’S LIFE CYCLE
OLAF’S LIFE CYCLE
CASE 1 – QIU
CASE 2 – NIHAJ
CASE 3 – OLAF
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 73
TREATMENTAND
REHABILITATION
1.
1.
1.2.
3.
2.3.
2.
3.
TREATMENTAND
SELF-MANAGEMENT
1. Qiu’s blood sugar is monitored continuously through an implanted chip and the results are sent to her primary care nurse and endocrinologist.
1. The local clinic is able to perform Nihaj’s biopsy using a robotic surgeon remotely controlled by specialists at the regional centre.
1. Records of Olaf’s care in Spain are transferred to Norway to enable shared care between his local GP and regional specialists.
2. Qiu uses an activity tracker to monitor her exercise levels and to receive automatic advice and encouragement.
2. Nihaj’s doctors are able to monitor his stool for blood through remotely connected lab-on-a-chip.
2. As Olaf grows he regularly receives new prostheses tailored to his body and life-style.
3. Social media has opened up Qiu’s life – she is able to join online groups to make friends, receive peer support, and keep in contact with her primary care nurse.
3. Drones ensure that Nihaj receives a regular supply of his life-saving medicine.
3. Gene therapy enables Olaf to be fi tted with a bio-prosthesis that combines mechanical and organic material, and enables him to obtain realistic sensation and movement.
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 74
CASE 1 – QIU KEY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Web-connected testing devices on smartphones enable individuals to capture personal health-related data and share that information with healthcare professionals. This allows for remote diagnoses and alerting healthcare workers to changing conditions as they occur, enabling earlier intervention. Lab-on-a-chip technology, integrating medical laboratory functions on miniature devices, will be available as clip-on sensors that can be attached to smartphones.
Sensors offer health-monitoring opportunities ranging from wearable foetal monitors that track a baby’s heartbeat and movement, to sensors for remote patient monitoring that enable frail ‘at risk’ adults to remain in their own homes rather than move to institutional care. Sensors collect data about the physical and chemical properties of the body and local environment, and use it to feed algorithms that output relevant information. By 2025, there will be 3 billion wearable sensors available.
Activity trackers enable people to monitor their lifestyles and optimize their exercise, sleep, and nutrition patterns. By 2025, their increasing interactivity and ability to process information based on personalized algorithms will alert people to the risks of their unhealthy behaviour and offer health coaching.
ACTIVITY TRACKERS:
REMOTE DIAGNOSTICS:
SENSORS:
Patients can connect with other patients with similar conditions through social media, enabling them to share experiences such as the effect of a certain treatment and how it is to live with a condition, as well as accessing advice and support from professionals. Similarly, health professionals can use social media to network with colleagues to seek advice and share knowledge within the healthcare community. Data generated from social media can also support in the prediction of patterns of disease-spreading.
Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have the ability to provide instant and secure information regarding a patient’s medical and treatment history. In 2025, it is anticipated that EHRs from multiple patients will be easily aggregated to provide decision support and enable healthcare clinics to optimize the integration of data for monitoring disease trends and clinical quality, and support risk management.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or drones will be increasingly used to assist delivery of medical tools and supplies, such as vaccines and medications. to patients on offshore vessels, dei brillators to patients in cardiac arrest, and essentials to remote, risky, or challenging locations.
DRONES: SOCIAL MEDIA: ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS:
By 2025, it is anticipated that some babies and many adults will have their full genome sequenced, thus facilitating quicker and more accurate diagnosis, and the development of stratii ed and personalized care. The molecular basis for all monogenic rare diseases will have been discovered and clinical research linking patient records to genomic sequences will explore the mechanisms of complex polygenic multifactorial diseases, such as diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis.
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING:
ROBOTICS: CLINICAL GENOMICS:
Robotics will impact healthcare in several ways. Robotic carers, for example, will substitute care workers in residential facilities. Endoscopy will be reduced, as patients will be able to swallow a micro-robot that can transmit pictures, as well as take samples of tissue that can be analysed in situ or later in the laboratory after the micro-robot has been excreted naturally. Robotic-assisted surgery will become even more commonplace by 2025. Although technical difi culties and complications remain a cause for concern in 2015, these will be overcome through the efi cient application of risk assessment and the qualii cation of new healthcare technology and its adoption from a systems perspective.
Additive manufacturing (3D printing) is expected to revolutionize the capability to customize medical devices and products. Bio-printed transplant-ready organs have already been developed, and production of tissues that can be integrated into a human body should be realized in the near future. By 2025, it is likely that patients will have the possibility to obtain a heart, liver, lung or kidney on demand, instead of waiting for a donor.
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 75
FOOD SUPPLY
Further globalization of the food supply chain towards 2025 will be driven by increasing global food demand and greater emphasis on food security, food safety, health, and sustainability. Future generations will increasingly demand food that matches their social and health proiles, and that is produced and distributed in a safe, equitable, and sustainable manner. Social media and social networks will also impact food and diet expectations, and increase the power of consumers.
Higher yields, less wastage, and better distribution will all
contribute to improve food security.
Increased transportation and more complex supply chains
are factors that put food safety high on the agenda. In
addition, there is increased emphasis on transparency for the
customer, to promote trust in the processing and origin of
food. Regulation will be a driver for new solutions.
Suficient availability of healthy food will be important in
developed countries, as well as in less developed countries.
From a national perspective, it is desirable to facilitate a
menu that reduces the potential for lifestyle diseases that
could become a heavy burden on the health budget. With
growing middle classes, there is also increased demand
from individuals for special products designed for enhanced
nutritional and health effects.
Sustainability will be an overriding principle throughout
the food supply chain. As we approach 2025, ever more
parameters will be incorporated in the support system to
document and verify the sustainability of products. These
parameters will be linked to climate change, ethics-related
requirements, and resource eficiency.
76 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
PROCESSINGTRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
G1 G2 G3
AQUACULTURE
A1 T3
A3 S1A2 S2
A4 P2
FUTURE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
FOOD SUPPLY
77 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
DISTRIBUTIONPACKAGING SALE CONSUMER
P1 T4 T1 G4T2
78 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Improvement of photosynthesis eficiency by altering gene expression or engineering a photosynthesis procedure from other organisms with a more eficient process.
Genome editing of livestock, enabling animals to have the very best genes its species can offer, or produce particular traits such as increased disease resistance, or hornless bulls.
Creation of new crop varieties with high concentrations of anthocyanin generated through genome editing, e.g., by use of CRISPR/Cas9. Anthocyanins are reported to inhibit certain cancers, age-related degenerative diseases, and cardiovascular diseases.
Personalized nutrition approaches based on individual genomic proiles to support metabolic health, maintain weight, or manage obesity.
Agricultural robots, or agbots, for farm automation of farm operations, such as autonomous precision seeding, intelligent weeding, planting, harvesting, and irrigation. By 2025, we may see farms with dozens or hundreds of agbots that monitor, cultivate, and harvest crops from the land with practically no human intervention. Optical delousing is a concept designed for eficient, non-invasive removal of individual sea lice from ish by using camera vision, advanced software, and laser technology. This offers a preventive and sustainable alternative to conventional and typically reactive delousing approaches.
Collection of data from satellites and airborne optical sensing technologies on crop production to assess crop health, prescribe fertilization amounts for optimal returns on inputs, forecast crop yields, and check compliance against regulations or subsidy requirements.
Acoustic sensors for early detection of bug-infested coconuts.
Collars with GPS can track a cow’s movements, but the technology far transcends that. Animal behaviour can be monitored, disease can be detected early, and sensors can provide climate, water, and feed indicators.
Tracing of food along supply chain using a DNA mixture as a biological marker, providing information such as origin, date of harvesting and processing location.
Automated milking robots are increasing productivity and reducing labour costs of dairy production, while also allowing farmers to spend more time interacting with their herds.
Autonomous self-driving trucks (commercially available by 2025).
Active packaging aims at extending shelf life or improving safety while maintaining food quality. Current leading concepts include packaging with moisture absorbers, oxygen scavengers, microwave susceptors, and antimicrobial agents.
In vitro meat production: meat production by cultivating cells from live animals in a bioreactor. The irst commercially available products from in vitro meat production are expected to be processed products, such as sausages, burgers, and nuggets.
Real-time monitoring of food quality using sensors attached to the food packaging, such as ethanol sensors providing indications of food spoilage, and time-temperature sensors providing temperature exposure history. The sensor data can be read wirelessly in real-time by customers. Scanning of molecular ingerprint of objects enabling, for instance, instant breakdown of alcohol, sugar, or calorie content of food prior to consumption.
GENOMICS:
AUTOMATION:
SENSORS:
TRACKING:
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PACKAGING AND PROCESSING:
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 79
VISION: LIFE SCIENCES
JAHN HENRY LØVAAS
HEAD OF LIFE SCIENCES
Our world is facing a multitude of challenges to its ability
to provide food and preserve the health of its population;
challenges which are compounded by issues of climate
change, and intensifying income inequality worldwide which
works against fair and equitable access to food and health,
within and across geographies and economies.
Our strong belief is that DNV GL can and will contribute.
Capitalizing on our legacy built over 150 years, and our
global recognition as a leading independent assurance
provider with technological competence and capacity,
DNV GL has made the strategic choice of developing
signiicant assurance roles in selected branches of life
sciences. In particular, DNV GL will focus upon “Preserving
Health,” working with healthcare providers and healthcare
suppliers, and “Providing Food,” with the food & beverage
and agricultural sectors, and use of the ocean space for
provision of proteins and habitats for biotechnology.
In both the health and food branches of life sciences,
technology, in all its forms, will drive change and
80 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025
transformation. But in providing solutions to the challenges
our societies are facing, rapid technological development will
also give rise to new issues and concerns.
Data will revolutionise healthcare. As individuals we will be
closely monitored, information will be collected and analysed
to personalize medical treatment and care, suppliers and
operators of data systems and processes will move into our
personal space and partly take over the role of hospitals and
care institutions. All of these data-driven advances may make
healthcare much more effective, but at the same time they
will create a series of safety, security, integrity, responsibility,
and accountability issues. Not the least of these will be the
challenge of enabling fair and equitable access to such
technologies.
Understanding these and similar developments in the
selected branches of life sciences is essential for DNV GL in
order to take and develop assurance roles that will enable
effective deployment of technologies and, by extension,
assist diverse societies in meeting many of challenges that
our world is facing.
Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 81
FEATURE TOPIC: SUSTAINABLE OCEANS
82 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS Technology Outlook 2025
Oceans, which gave rise to all life on our planet, play a
vital role in sustaining all life forms, not least humankind.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO), in 2012 the oceans provided more
than 200 million direct employment opportunities along
the food value chain, of which 58 million were in i sheries
or aquaculture. They also estimated that the livelihood of
roughly 12% of the global population (880 million people)
was assured by the latter industries, for the same year.
The productivity of the ocean ecosystems is, however,
threatened by a number of factors, including overi shing,
pollution, and acidii cation. This is evidenced, for instance,
by the WWF Living Planet Index (LPI) for marine populations,
which is based on trends among 1,234 marine species, and
shows a decline of 49% between 1970 and 2012. In addition,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
asserts that the three principal impacts of climate change
on the world’s oceans – warming, oxygen depletion, and
acidii cation – will alter ocean ecosystems as follows:
• Global marine species redistribution and reductions in
marine biodiversity in sensitive regions will challenge the
sustained provision of i sheries productivity and other
ecosystem services;
• Species richness and i sheries catch potential will increase,
on average, at mid and high latitudes, but decrease at
tropical latitudes and in areas of the Southern Ocean;
• Expansion of oxygen minimum zones and anoxic “dead
zones” will constrain i sh habitat; and
• Ocean acidii cation will pose substantial risks to marine
ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs,
associated with impacts on the physiology, behaviour, and
population dynamics of individual species, ranging from
phytoplankton to vertebrate animals.
The impacts of climate change on ocean species and
ecosystems may also amplify, or be amplii ed by, non-
climatic stressors, such as pollution and eutrophication. In
addition, second order effects are debated, such as possible
consequences on the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC),
for example, the Gulf Stream.
In response to these threats, the UN Sustainable Develop-
ment Goal number 14 calls for collective action to “conserve
and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources
for sustainable development”.
Some of the measures associated with this goal are:
1. Signii cant reduction in marine pollution of all kinds;
2. Sustainable management and protection of marine and
coastal ecosystems;
3. Minimization of impacts of ocean acidii cation;
4. Effective regulation of i sheries and ocean resource
extraction activities;
5. Conservation of at least 10% of coastal and marine areas;
and
6. Increasing scientii c knowledge on the current state and
future trajectories for ocean health.
Implementation of these measures requires international
cooperation among governments and relevant governmental
entities, as well as among commercial users of the ocean
space, regulators, and scientists, and an implementation
roadmap based on a holistic system perspective. It will also
be necessary to conduct comprehensive ocean monitoring
and reporting programmes using a spectrum of monitoring
technologies, such as satellite-connected sensor-based
buoys and AUVs.
Technology Outlook 2025 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS 83
SHIPPING AND TOURISMThe shipping industry moves more than 80% of world trade by volume,
making it an integral part of the global economy. Seaborne trade is
also expected to grow in lockstep with, or possibly outpace, the global
GDP growth. Although shipping has signiicantly lower CO2 emissions
per tonne-kilometre relative to road and air transport, the industry still
accounts for a signiicant share of global emissions of CO2, NOX and
SOX, giving it a substantial environmental footprint.
While NOX emissions are expected to remain at current levels,
SOX emissions will decline sharply as a result of new IMO rules.
Furthermore, DNV GL believes that CO2 emissions from shipping
can be cut by 60% from present levels by 2050 without increasing
costs. This can be achieved through deployment of a spectrum of
abatement options, ranging from reducing speed, the use of hybrid-
electric power systems and alternative fuels such as LNG and biofuels,
technical measures covering improved hull and engine designs, as
well as optimization of fuel eficiency through sophisticated monitoring
and control systems.
Tourism is a rapidly expanding industry that generates close to 10%
of the gross world product, and is a particularly signiicant component
of the economy in many coastal communities – 80% of all tourism is
based near the sea. Cruise tourism alone represents over 300,000
jobs and had a direct turnover of €15.5 billion in 2012. Although
tourism offers opportunities for sustainable growth and development,
its contribution to marine pollution and habitat destruction places
increasing pressure on the world’s oceans and coastal environments.
This places mounting pressure on the cruise shipping sector to reduce
its environmental footprint.
FISHERIES AND MARICULTUREThe per capita consumption of ish has doubled the since 1960,
and more than 3 billion people today rely on ish as a major source
of protein. Aquaculture therefore plays an increasing role, already
providing more than half of the world’s ish supply for human
consumption. However, despite advances in technology that permit
massive industrial ishing operations, the global catch of ish from
marine waters has not increased signiicantly since the late 1980s.
The current ish production model of both isheries and aquaculture is
clearly not sustainable. The FAO estimated that 28.8% of marine ish
stocks were overished at biologically unsustainable levels in 2011, and
another 60% of marine ish stocks were fully exploited. For mariculture,
environmental sustainability concerns include genetic dilution of wild
stocks, destruction of mangroves, and impacts on sensitive coastal
areas.
Furthermore, for both isheries and mariculture the proportion of total
catch that is discarded is generally considered a wasteful misuse of
marine resources. The total loss along the primary catch to human
consumption value chain ranges from 30 to 50% across different
geographical regions. This highlights a signiicant potential to increase
the utilization of marine by-products to feed growing populations.
Today, most of the by-products are used in the feed sector, but
increasing volumes are used to produce high-priced ingredients for
human applications, such as omega-3 in functional foods and dietary
supplements, protein hydrolysates for bioactive applications, and
medical food.
84 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS Technology Outlook 2025
ENERGY HARVESTING The world’s oceans represent a huge potential for renewable
electricity generation. In addition to loating, anchored, or
ixed offshore installations for wind power and solar power, and
offshore geothermal power, the ocean water column holds an
additional potential to generate 20,000 – 80,000 TWh. The table
below provides a list of alternative sources of electricity and the
associated estimated global potential.
The IEA estimates that offshore electricity generation has the
potential to create 160,000 jobs and save 5.2 Gt of CO2 emissions
by 2030. Electricity generated can be transmitted to shore, or
could be used to power offshore oil and gas installations and
remote coastal or island communities, hence avoiding the need
for onsite fossil fuel-based power generation or transmission of
power from shore.
SEABED MINERAL MININGThere is a growing interest in seabed mineral mining, owing to the fact
that sealoor mineral deposits are generally much more concentrated than
those on land. This implies that less material must be moved in order to
extract the same amount of usable minerals. The main types of seabed
mineral deposits are:
• Polymetallic sulphides such as copper, cobalt, zinc, lead, silver and
gold;
• Polymetallic nodules such as manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt, iron,
silicon, and aluminium; and
• Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts attached to substrate rock.
The establishment of regulations based on scientiic knowledge to avoid
signiicant negative impacts on the oceans and ocean ecosystems from
seabed mineral mining will be essential. This includes minimizing direct
effects on the seabed (infauna and epifauna) by collection machinery, and
negative impacts from discharges to the water column, such as discharge
of wastewaters, materials, and exchange of oligotrophic, low-nutrient,
deep-sea water and sediments with other zones.
The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has been established to regulate
mining of marine minerals in the international seabed area (deined as
the seabed and subsoil beyond the limits of national jurisdiction). The
ISA is an autonomous international organization established under the
1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and
its 1994 Implementing Agreement relating to deep seabed mining. The
Mining Code issued by the ISA comprises a comprehensive set of rules,
regulations, and procedures to regulate prospecting, exploration, and
exploitation of marine minerals, and guidance for contractors on the
assessment of the environmental impacts.
Energy source Electricity generation mechanism Global potential (TWh / year)
Tidal powerTransfer of kinetic energy of tidal currents and the potential energy
held by high tides.7,8
Wave power Transfer of kinetic energy of ocean waves. 29,5
Ocean thermal energyExtraction of energy from heat exchange processes between warm
surface waters and cold seawater from deeper depths.44,000+
Ocean osmotic energyExtraction of energy from chemical pressure potential between saline
ocean water and fresh river water at the mouths of major rivers.1,65
Energy from ocean currents Transfer of kinetic energy in ocean currents. 800+
Technology Outlook 2025 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS 85
TECHNOLOGY
OUTLOOK
2025
Our World2025
Innovationdrivers
Shipping Energy
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Dear Reader: I hope you have gained useful insights on technologies that will shape your industries in the years ahead. Establishing how individual technologies will develop or be taken up is becom-ing progressively more dificult in this time of accelerating and interconnected political, economic and climate change.
As we have shown in this report, technology is key to ad-dressing the many challenges facing our planet. The tradeoff is that rapid technological advances, not least in digitaliza-tion, are in themselves a major driver of uncertainty.
Being able to identify, develop and deploy technologies is a pre-requisite for remaining competitive. The DNV GL Tech-nology Outlook 2025 is your guide to selected, impactful technologies of relevance to your industry sector.
Technology is becoming more important every day. But it needs to be mastered. At DNV GL, we believe the best way to do so is through collaboration, allowing us to solve com-mon challenges effectively together. Many technological solutions, rules, standards and practices have been devel-oped in close cooperation with our customers worldwide. And we stand ready to support you in developing safer, smarter and greener solutions.
I hope that you have found this report interesting and worth sharing with your colleagues.
Pierre Sames Group Technology and Research Director
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DNV GLDriven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, DNV GL enables organizations to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses. We provide classiication and technical assurance along with software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil and gas, and energy industries. We also provide certiication services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating in more than 100 countries, our 15,000 professionals are dedicated to helping our customers make the world safer, smarter and greener.
Strategic Research & InnovationThe objective of strategic research is to support DNV GL’s overall strategy through new knowledge and services. Such research is carried out in selected, key technology areas with long term impact, and with the ultimate objective of helping our customers set new standards of safer, smarter and greener performance in their industries – for today and tomorrow.