venezuela power market outlook to 2025 ...reference code gdpe0790icr | publication date june 2015...
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REFERENCE CODE GDPE0790ICR | PUBLICATION DATE JUNE 2015
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,
AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Venezuela Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Executive Summary
Venezuela’s Power Market Outlook
Venezuela’s economy, highly dependent on oil
exports, is influenced strongly by trends in global
oil prices. Between 2004 and 2008, its Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an average
of XX%. The following global economic crisis in
2009 and 2010 caused negative growth rates of
XX% and XX% respectively. While increased
government spending from 2011 to 2013 helped to
prop up the GDP, a sharp decline in global oil
prices in 2014 again caused a XX% contraction
that year. The residential sector is one of the
country’s strongest drivers of power consumption,
meaning that it increased even when economic
trends went downhill between 2000 and 2014.
Power Market, Venezuela, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annu
al p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
GD
P ($
bn)
GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2015 TWh: Terawatt hours
Annual power consumption grew from XX TWh in
2000 to XX TWh in 2014 at a CAGR of XX%.
Generation grew from XX TWh to XX TWh over the
same period and at the same CAGR, largely driven
by growth in thermal power generation.
Power Market, Venezuela, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2014
2000 2007 2014
Ann
ual p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n an
d ge
nera
tion
(TW
h)
Annual power consumption Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 22, 2015]
Venezuela has more than XX rivers and some of
the largest in South America. As a result,
hydropower fulfills the majority of its power
requirements. It accounted for XX% of the total
installed capacity in 2014, followed by gas-based
thermal power with XX%, and oil-based thermal
power with XX%. Renewable sources such as wind
and solar Photovoltaic (PV) made up the remaining
XX%.
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Table of Contents
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 7
1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 8
2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ............................................................................................ 10
3 Venezuela, Power Market, Snapshot ........................................................................................ 11
3.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors ........................................................ 11
3.2 Venezuela, Power Market, Supply Security ....................................................................... 13
3.3 Venezuela, Power Market, Opportunities .......................................................................... 14
3.4 Venezuela, Power Market, Challenges.............................................................................. 14
4 Venezuela, Power Market, Market Analysis .............................................................................. 15
4.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Supply Structure ..................................................................... 15
4.2 Venezuela, Power Market, Key Market Players ................................................................. 15
4.3 Venezuela, Power Market, Financial Deals ....................................................................... 15
4.3.1 Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004–April 2015 ....................................................... 15
4.4 Venezuela, Power Market, Demand Structure................................................................... 17
4.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2014 ............................................................................ 18
5 Venezuela, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario ....................................................................... 19
5.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Key Electricity Policies ............................................................ 19
5.1.1 Electric Service Law ...................................................................................................... 19
5.1.2 Electricity Restructuring Law ......................................................................................... 19
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Table of Contents
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
5.1.3 Law for the Rational and Efficient Use of Energy ........................................................... 20
5.2 Venezuela, Power Market, Energy Efficiency .................................................................... 20
5.3 Venezuela, Power Market, Renewable Energy Development ............................................ 20
6 Venezuela, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview ................................................ 21
6.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014.................. 21
6.2 Venezuela, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation,
2000–2025 ........................................................................................................................ 22
6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–
2025 ............................................................................................................................. 25
6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–
2025 ............................................................................................................................. 28
6.2.3 Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation,
2000–2025 ................................................................................................................... 31
7 Venezuela, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview ......................................... 35
7.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Transmission Overview........................................................... 35
7.2 Venezuela, Power Market, Distribution Overview .............................................................. 36
7.3 Venezuela, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Future Plans ............................ 37
7.4 Venezuela, Power Market, Grid Interconnection ............................................................... 38
7.4.1 Electricity Import and Export Trends, 2000–2014 .......................................................... 38
7.5 Venezuela, Power Market, Electricity Trading ................................................................... 40
8 Venezuela, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Top Power Generating
Companies ............................................................................................................................... 41
8.1 Key Company in the Venezuela Power Market – Corporacion Electrica Nacional SA
(CORPOELEC) ................................................................................................................. 41
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Table of Contents
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
8.1.1 Company Overview ....................................................................................................... 41
8.1.2 Business Description ..................................................................................................... 41
8.1.3 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 42
9 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 47
9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................. 47
9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................ 47
9.1.2 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 47
9.1.3 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................... 47
9.1.4 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................................. 47
9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant ..................................................................................................... 47
9.1.6 Hydropower Plant .......................................................................................................... 47
9.1.7 Nuclear Power............................................................................................................... 47
9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................... 48
9.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 48
9.3 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 49
9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology ................................................................................................ 49
9.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 49
9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis ................................................................................ 49
9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis..................................................................................... 50
9.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 51
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Table of Contents
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Power Market, Venezuela, Gross Domestic Product ($m), Population (million), and Annual Power
Consumption (TWh), 2000–2020 ................................................................................................. 13
Table 2: Power Market, Venezuela, Completed Deals, 2004–April 2015 .................................................... 16
Table 3: Power Market, Venezuela, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ................................. 18
Table 4: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ....................... 21
Table 5: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation
(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 24
Table 6: Power Market, Venezuela, Leading Thermal Power Plants, 2015................................................. 26
Table 7: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal
Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 28
Table 8: Power Market, Venezuela, Leading Hydropower Plants, 2015 ..................................................... 29
Table 9: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual
Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2025................................................................................. 31
Table 10: Power Market, Venezuela, Leading Renewable Power Plants, 2015 ............................................ 32
Table 11: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable
Power Generation, 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 34
Table 12: Power Market, Venezuela, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 .................................... 36
Table 13: Power Market, Venezuela, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ....................................... 37
Table 14: Power Market, Venezuela, Annual Electricity Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2014 ................. 40
Table 15: Power Market, Venezuela, Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A., SWOT Profile, 2014 ................. 43
Table 16: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 48
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Table of Contents
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Power Market, Venezuela, Gross Domestic Product ($m), Population (million), and Annual Power
Consumption (TWh), 2000–2020 ................................................................................................. 12
Figure 2: Power Market, Venezuela, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ................................. 17
Figure 3: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ....................... 21
Figure 4: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation
(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 5: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal
Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 27
Figure 6: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual
Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2025................................................................................. 30
Figure 7: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (GW) and Annual Renewable
Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 33
Figure 8: Power Market, Venezuela, Annual Electricity Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2014 ................. 39
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VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Introduction
2 Introduction
Venezuela is a developing country and a leading global exporter of oil. It is a federal presidential
republic, comprising XX states, and is considered one of the most urbanized countries in Latin
America.
Venezuela is one of the founding members of the United Nations (UN); the Organization of
American States (OAS); the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); the World
Trade Organization (WTO); ALBA, formerly the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America;
and the Union of South American Nations (USAN). The US is Venezuela’s most important trading
partner, and is the recipient of XX% of its total exports (CIA, 2015).
With an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $XXm in 2014 (at constant prices) or $XX
billion (at current prices), Venezuela registered an estimated real growth of XX% for that year. The
economy contracted by XX% in 2009 during the global economic recession. As a result, oil prices
witnessed a sharp decrease from $XX per barrel to around $XX per barrel. The global recession
caused the major drivers of aggregate demand including consumption, investment, and
government spending to decline. The GDP again rose from 2011 until 2013 on the back of an
increase in global oil prices. However, the government’s perusal of unorthodox economic policies
and declining oil prices resulted in a sharp downturn of economic fortunes in 2014.
In 2014, the services sector accounted for an estimated XX% of GDP, followed by the industrial
sector with XX% and the agricultural sector with XX%. Venezuela possesses sizable gas reserves,
estimated at XX trillion cubic feet (tcf) at the end of 2013. The country has one of the world’s
largest oil reserves, with a total holding of XX billion barrels as of 2011 (BP, 2014). Around XX% of
export revenues in Venezuela come from oil (CIA, 2015).
The Ministry of Electrical Energy is responsible for exercising general control over the electricity
sector, while the Foundation for the Development of Electric Service (FUNDELEC) is the main
regulatory body. Hydropower is the primary source used for power generation. The Simón Bolívar
hydropower plant, also known as Guri, is the main hydropower plant, supplying a large share of
Venezuela’s electricity. The government has plans to set up a number of gas-fired plants due to the
presence of sizable gas reserves. In coming years, there are also plans to set up a number of
wind-based plants. The first phase of the 100 Megawatt (MW) Paraguana wind farm commenced
operations in 2013.
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VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Introduction
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance
The report opens with an executive summary that captures the key growth trends in the
Venezuelan power market.
Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters affecting the power sector in
Venezuela and key points about the power market.
Chapter four provides analysis of the power market.
Chapter five details the regulatory scenario of the power market and the inward foreign
investment scenario in Venezuela.
Chapter six provides information regarding Venezuela’s cumulative installed capacity and
annual generation trends as a whole and by individual generation source.
Chapter seven describes Venezuela’s power transmission and distribution infrastructure and
includes information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. It also details electricity
imports and exports and upcoming grid-related projects.
Note: all 2014 market numbers provided in the report are estimates, except where actual data were
available.
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Snapshot
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
3 Venezuela, Power Market, Snapshot
3.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors
Venezuela’s economy is strongly dependent on petroleum exports. Its GDP grew by an average of
XX% (constant rates) between 2004 and 2008, but declined between 2009 and 2010 due to the
international financial crisis. Higher government spending between 2011 and 2013 saw the GDP
grow by an average XX% during this period, followed by a XX% dip in 2014 due to a decline in
global oil prices. This downturn is expected to continue and GDP is likely to decline further at a
negative average of XX% between 2015 and 2020.
The population however has seen regular growth, rising from XX million in 2000 to XX million in
2014 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. During the 2015–2020 period, it is
expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% to XX million by 2020, bringing with it important implications
for power consumption as the residential sector is one of the top consumers of power.
Annual power consumption increased from XX Terawatt hours (TWh) in 2000 to XX TWh in 2014 at
a CAGR of XX%. A CAGR of XX% is expected between 2015 and 2020 to XX TWh by 2020, driven
by residential sector consumption.
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Snapshot
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Figure 1: Power Market, Venezuela, Gross Domestic Product ($m), Population (million), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2020
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ion)
and
ann
ual p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
GD
P ($
m)
GDP (constant prices) Population Annual power consumption
Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2015
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VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Capacity and Generation Overview
6 Venezuela, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview
6.1 Venezuela, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014
Hydropower sources dominated the power market in 2014, accounting for XX% of total capacity,
followed by gas-fired plants with XX%. Oil-based thermal plants accounted for XX%, while the
remaining XX% came from renewable power such as wind and solar PV plants.
Figure 3: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014
Hydropower
Gas (thermal)
Oil (thermal) Renewables
Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 21, 2015]
Table 4: Power Market, Venezuela, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 Fuel type Share
Hydropower
Gas (thermal)
Biomass
Oil (thermal)
Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 21, 2015]
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Appendix
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9 Appendix
9.1 Market Definitions
9.1.1 Power
Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is
measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known
as real power or active power.
9.1.2 Installed Capacity
Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer, or
the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on
a nameplate affixed to the generator.
9.1.3 Electricity Generation
Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It
also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).
9.1.4 Electricity Consumption
Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and
transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).
9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant
A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.
9.1.6 Hydropower Plant
A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.
9.1.7 Nuclear Power
Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.
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Appendix
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources
Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited
in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydro and
wind are examples of renewable resources.
9.2 Abbreviations
Table 16: Abbreviations CADAFE Compañía Anónima de Administración y Fomento Eléctrico
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine
Ckm Circuit kilometer
CORPOELEC Corporación Eléctrica Nacional
FUNDELEC Foundation for the Development of Electric Service
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GW Gigawatt
GWh Gigawatt hour
IIRSA Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America
km kilometer
kV kilovolt
kWh/m2/day kilowatt hours per square meter per day
m/s meters per second
MW Megawatt
OAS Organization of American States
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PDVSA Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.
PV Photovoltaic
tcf trillion cubic feet
UN United Nations
WTO World Trade Organization
Source: GlobalData
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Appendix
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9.3 Bibliography
BP (2014). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 [database]. British Petroleum.
Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/Energy-Economics/statistical-review-
2014/BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014_workbook.xlsx [Accessed on May 22,
2015]
CIA (2015). Venezuela: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ve.html [Accessed on April 28,
2015]
IMF (2015). World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014 [database]. International
Monetary Fund. Available at:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weoselco.aspx?g=2001&sg=All+coun
tries [Accessed on May 22, 2015]
9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology
GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with
advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the
energy industry.
GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and
Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).
All of GlobalData’s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology
has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report.
9.4.1 Coverage
This report covers Venezuela’s power market, examining the market structure and providing
historical generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until 2025. It also looks at the market’s
regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and
upcoming power projects.
9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis
The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of
secondary resources including but not limited to:
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Appendix
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and
statistical databases
Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor
presentations
Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature
GlobalData’s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power
Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database
Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project
Venezuela’s power market scenario to 2025, analyzing factors such as:
Macro-economic scenario
Government regulations, policies and targets
Government and private sector investment
Contract and deal announcements
Utility expansion plans
The sector’s historical track record
Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,
annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry
associations
9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis
Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants
to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand
information on industry trends.
The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers,
equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and
academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants,
academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant
managers, government officials and industry spokespersons.
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Appendix
VENEZUELA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9.5 Disclaimer
All Rights Reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the publisher, GlobalData.
This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.