technology and manufacturing day - intel · pdf filetechnology and manufacturing day ......

32
TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY STACY J. SMITH GROUP PRESIDENT, MANUFACTURING, OPERATIONS AND SALES SEPTEMBER 19, 2017 Strategy overview

Upload: nguyenthu

Post on 29-Mar-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

STACY J. SMITHGROUP PRESIDENT, MANUFACTURING, OPERATIONS AND SALESSEPTEMBER 19, 2017

Strategy overview

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Legal DisclaimerDISCLOSURES

China Tech and Manufacturing Day 2017 occurs during Intel’s “Quiet Period,” before Intel announces its 2017 third quarter financial and operating results. Therefore, presenters will not be addressing third quarter information during this year’s program.

Statements in this presentation that refer to forecasts, future plans and expectations are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “goals,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “continues,” “may,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Statements that refer to or are based on projections, uncertain events or assumptions also identify forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on management’s expectations as of September 19-20, 2017, and involve many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company’s expectations are set forth in Intel’s earnings release dated July 27, 2017, which is included as an exhibit to Intel’s Form 8-K furnished to the SEC on such date. Additional information regarding these and other factors that could affect Intel’s results is included in Intel’s SEC filings, including the company’s most recent reports on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports may be obtained by visiting our Investor Relations website at www.intc.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Two Implications:

1. Cost per square millimeter goes up over time

2. Doubling of transistors = “Scaling” Improves performance

Cost per transistor declines

“The number of transistors and resistors on a chip doubles every 24 months”

-Gordon Moore

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

What if Moore’s Law is applied to…Terracotta Warriors ?

We could build 64 billion warrior statues

Agricultural productivity?

We could feed the world’s population with 1km2 of land

Transportation?

We could travel to the Sun on a single gallon

Source: Intel Internal Analysis.

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Is Moore’s Law dead?

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Is moore’s law dead? NO!mm2 / Transistor

(log scale)

13

0 n

m

90

nm

65

nm

45

nm

32

nm

22

nm

14

nm

10

nm

7 n

m

$ / mm2

(log scale)

13

0 n

m

90

nm

65

nm

45

nm

32

nm

22

nm

14

nm

10

nm

7 n

m

13

0 n

m

90

nm

65

nm

45

nm

32

nm

22

nm

14

nm

10

nm

7 n

m

$ / Transistor(log scale)

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

The time between nodes has lengthened…

Are you Getting the same Moore’s Law benefit?

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

YES!Because we are getting

more scaling

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

We Are Hyper Scaling(on 14 nm & 10 nm)

Hyper scaling enables us to achieve accelerated density improvement

Intra-node optimizations enable an annual cadence of product enhancements

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Microprocessor die area scaling

Hyper scaling delivers better than 0.50x die area scaling on 14 nm and 10 nm

100 mm2

45 nm 32 nm 22 nm 14 nm 10 nm

62 mm2

17.7 mm2

7.6 mm2

0.62x

Logic

SRAM

IO

100 mm2

Logic

SRAM

IO

100 mm2

Logic

SRAM

IO

100 mm2

Logic

SRAM

IO

100 mm2

Logic

SRAM

IO

0.43x

0.46x

0.62xArea

38.4 mm2

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Moore’s Law Translates to Lower Product Costs22 nm & 14 nm Client Cost Curves

(Launch + 5 quarters)

Q2'12 Q2'13 Q2'14 Q2'15 Q2'16 Q2'17

$

0

Broadwell

SkylakeHaswell

Ivybridge

Kabylake

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Moore's Law in action…PC CPU Weighted Average Cost Per Transistor ($/MTX)

(log scale normalized to 90nm)

Source: Intel

Q2'04 Q2'05 Q2'06 Q2'07 Q2'08 Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Q2'12 Q2'13 Q2'14 Q2'15 Q2'16 Q2'17

$/MTX

90nm

65nm45nm

32nm22nm

14nm

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Gross MarginsGross Margin % Annual 2005 – 2017F

2016 and 2017 forecasted figures are on a non-GAAP basis. Refer to Intel’s earnings release for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures at www.intc.com. 2017 forecasts are Intel estimates, based upon current expectations and available information and are subject to change without notice.Source: Intel

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Competitors are announcing10nm this year…

Have you lost your lead?

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

14nm Is ~3 years ahead

0.1

1

0.01

LO

GIC

AR

EA

(re

lati

ve

)

HVM WAFER START DATE

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

45nm

32nm

22nm

14nm

10nm

Intel

40/45nm

28nm

20nm

14/16nm

10nm

Others

3 years

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Our Scale

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Investment Required to Build & EquipA Leading Edge Wafer Factory

~$10b

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Si technology is becoming rare

Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.

Note: GF relies on Samsung’s process recipe for 14nm. GF-IBM Fabsacquisition announced in 2014

Source: Analyst reports; company information

02-'03 04-'06 06-'08 08-'12 10-'12 12-'14 14-'16

NUMBER OF PLAYERS WITH A LEADING EDGE LOGIC FAB25

18

13 13

8

5

TSMCIntel

SamsungGF

IBMST-MUMC

Panasonic

TSMCIntel

SamsungGF

IBM

(130nm) (90nm) (65nm) (45/40nm) (32/28nm) (22/20nm)

TSMCIntel

SamsungAMDIBM

ST-MUMC

PanasonicFujitsu

RenesasSMIC

Freescale

InfineonSony

CypressSharp

ADIAtmelHitachi

ONRohmSanyo

Mitsubishi

TIToshiba

TSMCIntel

SamsungAMDIBM

ST-MUMC

PanasonicFujitsu

RenesasSMIC

Freescale

InfineonSony

CypressSharp

TIToshiba

TSMCIntel

SamsungGF

IBMST-MUMC

PanasonicFujitsu

RenesasSMIC

TIToshiba

(16/14nm)

4

TSMCIntel

SamsungGF

TSMCIntel

SamsungGF

IBMST-MUMC

PanasonicFujitsu

RenesasSMIC

TIToshiba

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Fab and Assembly Test Sites

Wafer FabsAssembly Test

IrelandOregon

Arizona

ChengduVietnam

PenangKulim

DalianIsraelNew Mexico

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Global Manufacturing By the Numbers

28

INTEL EMPLOYEES MANUFACTURING SPACE TRANSISTORS

~30K +4MSQUARE FEET

OF CLEANROOM

+10BMANUFACTURED

PER SECOND

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

China Footprint

+7K +$13BIntel China Jobs Total Capex Invested

32 Year History in China with World Class Fab and Assembly Test Facilities

Since 2004

Source: Intel

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

AnnouncingFirst Commercially available

64-Layer Intel® 3D NAND SSD for the DatA Center!!

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

world class supply chain

2017

MASTER Apple / P&G / Amazon

1. Unilever2. McDonald’s3. Inditex

4. Cisco Systems5. H&M6. Intel

7. Nestle8. Nike9. Colgate-Palmolive

10. Starbucks

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Caring for the environment

Reducing waste, water and carbon footprint

Inspiring employees, shareholders, customers

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

33

Awards and Recognitions

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Intel Custom Foundry

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

The opportunity ~ Leading edge foundry market is Growing57_84

Note: Samsung and Intel internal are excluded from TAM. Leading edge defined as: 65nm and below for 2010, 45nm and below for 2011 and 2012, 32 nm and below for 2013-2016.

Source: Amalgamation of analyst data and Intel analysis.

FOUNDRY TAM ($B)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$23BLeading

Edge

$30BLaggingNodes

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

2016 Leading Edge Foundry MarketLEADING EDGE

FOUNDRY TAM BY NODE

$23BGROWING AT 14%

(CAGR 2010 - 2016)

2016 TAM ($B)

Note: Samsung and Intel internal are excluded from TAM. Leading edge defined as: 28 nm and below for 2016.Source: Amalgamation of analyst data and Intel analysis.

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Putting It All TogetherWe continue to advance Moore’s Law

resulting in significant product and cost benefits

Our scale is a unique competitive advantage

We are building a foundry franchise

We continue to outpace the rest of the industry(~3 year lead on 14nm)

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

One More Thing...

TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING DAY

Presenting 10nm