structure of presentation 1.introduction 2.the core network and its status discussion 3.investment...
TRANSCRIPT
Structure of presentation
1.1. IntroductionIntroduction
2.2. The Core Network and its status The Core Network and its status
DiscussionDiscussion
3.3. Investment programmingInvestment programming
DiscussionDiscussion
4.4. Analysis of sub-sectorsAnalysis of sub-sectors
DiscussionDiscussion
Project organisation
Previous projects
Commission services paper: Commission services paper: "Transport and Energy "Transport and Energy
Infrastructure in South East Europe" (2001)Infrastructure in South East Europe" (2001)
TIRS study (2002)TIRS study (2002)
Pan-European corridors
Proposed core road network
Routes and corridors, roads
Propsed core rail network
Routes and corridors, railways
Proposed core seaports
Seaports
Rijeka
Split
Ploce
Dubrovnik
Bar
Durres
Vlore
Airports
Tirana Tirana
SarajevoSarajevo
ZagrebZagreb
SkopjeSkopje
BelgradeBelgrade
Banja LukaBanja Luka
PristinaPristina
PodgoricaPodgorica
DubrovnikDubrovnik
NisNis
SplitSplit
Proposed core road network
Propsed core rail network
Road Geometry
Road condition
Present technical condition, railways
Ongoing initiatives
Balkan Stability PactBalkan Stability Pact
Southeast European Co-operation Initiative (SECI)Southeast European Co-operation Initiative (SECI)
EU CARDS programmeEU CARDS programme
World Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation inWorld Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation in
Southeast Europe Programme (TTFSE)Southeast Europe Programme (TTFSE)
Road border crossings on Core Network and location of border crossings which are presently or potentially bottlenecks and are not already supported
Rail border crossings on core network and location of border crossings which are presently or potentially bottlenecks and are not already supported
Projected road traffic 2006, moderate economic growth scenario
Projected rail passenger traffic 2006, moderate economic growth scenario
Growth in passenger traffic 2001 - 2025
Alban
ia
Bosni
a an
d Her
zego
vina
Croat
ia
Mac
edon
ia
Serb
ia a
nd
Mon
tene
gro
Car
Rail
Air
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
Growth in freight traffic 2001 – 2025
Truck
Rail
Inland waterwayAlb
ania
Bosni
a an
d Her
zego
vina
Croat
ia
Mac
edon
ia
Serb
ia a
nd
Mon
tene
gro
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
The planning process
"European" standards
Road:AGRRoad:AGR
80 - 120 km/h80 - 120 km/h
min. 7m asphaltmin. 7m asphalt
Rail: AGC/AGTCRail: AGC/AGTC
Corridor X 160 km/h, double trackCorridor X 160 km/h, double track
other lines: basic modernisation (100-120 km/h)other lines: basic modernisation (100-120 km/h)
Long-term investment requirements:
Roads: 4 Billion EuroRoads: 4 Billion Euro
Railways: 12 Billion EuroRailways: 12 Billion Euro
Location of road investments
Proposed rail modernisation
Short term investment plan
Recommended actions may be:Recommended actions may be:
studies (e.g. feasibility studies)studies (e.g. feasibility studies) designdesign constructionconstruction
All infrastructure projects on the Core Network for All infrastructure projects on the Core Network for which action is recommended before end of 2004. which action is recommended before end of 2004. Covers the period 2004 - 2009Covers the period 2004 - 2009
Projects may be: Projects may be: ongoingongoing committedcommitted newnew
Project screening
Two phases:Two phases:
Collection of project data in the region Collection of project data in the region
=> project fiches=> project fiches
Screening of projects Screening of projects
= ranking with multi-criteria model= ranking with multi-criteria model
Output:Output:
Projects ranked according to scoreProjects ranked according to score
Example of project fiche
Weights of criteria
Criteria-weight
Criterion I: Economic appraisal 0.50
Criterion II: Financial viability 0.20
Criterion III:
Environmental effects 0.05
Criterion IV:
Functionality and coherency of the network
0.15
Criterion V: Readiness of the Authority 0.10
Example of output from screening model
Number of road and rail projects on the Core Network comprised by the quantitative screening
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovin
a
Croatia Serbia and Montenegr
o
FYROMacedoni
a
Total
Highway
9 12 7 19 11 58
Railway 1 7 13 14 8 43
Project costs by corridor/route
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0Tota
l in
vestm
en
t cost
(EU
R m
illion
)
Corrid
or Vb
Corrid
or Vc
Corrid
or VIII
Corrid
or X
Corrid
or Xb
Corrid
or Xc
Corrid
or Xd
Route 1
Route 2
a
Route 2
b
Route 4
Route 8
Route 7
Route 8
Route 1
0
Road projects
Rail projects
Pre-feasibility studies - 19
Criteria for selection of projects:Criteria for selection of projects:
Above 70% of maximum score in screening processAbove 70% of maximum score in screening process
Up-to-date feasibility study is not availableUp-to-date feasibility study is not available
An initial assessment of the project is a precondition An initial assessment of the project is a precondition
for further actionfor further action
Approval or financing of the project is not securedApproval or financing of the project is not secured
Pre-feasibility studies - 19
Focus in pre-feasibility analyses:Focus in pre-feasibility analyses:
Project is compared with a realistic Project is compared with a realistic reference alternativereference alternative
Change in investment, operating and Change in investment, operating and maintenance costs of infrastructuremaintenance costs of infrastructure
Change in travel time Change in travel time
Change in operating costs of rolling Change in operating costs of rolling stock/vehicles and equipmentstock/vehicles and equipment
Change in traffic safetyChange in traffic safety
Location of pre-feasibility studies - Road
Location of pre-feasibility studies - Rail
Basis for Short term Investment Plan General REBIS policy recommendations:General REBIS policy recommendations:
Maintain present infrastructure - rather than Maintain present infrastructure - rather than constructing new links/increase capacityconstructing new links/increase capacity
Concentrate investments on most important Concentrate investments on most important regional connectionsregional connections
Strike a balance between transport modes Strike a balance between transport modes
National priorities are reflectedNational priorities are reflected
Affordable investment level Affordable investment level
Reasonable distribution between countriesReasonable distribution between countries
Results of the screening and pre-feasibility analysesResults of the screening and pre-feasibility analyses
Total investment costs broken down by project status (EUR million)
Data Committed projects
Ongoing projects
New projects
Grand Total
Investment cost
828 791 2,074 3,693
Percentage distribution of investment costs
22% 21% 56% 100%
Number of projects
22 31 79 132
Location of ongoing, committed and new road and airport projects
Location of ongoing, committed and new railway and ports projects
Short Term Investment Plan implications
Timing of investment costs 2004-2009Timing of investment costs 2004-2009
Investments by corridor and routeInvestments by corridor and route
Investments by project status and transport modeInvestments by project status and transport mode
Investments by countryInvestments by country
Investment costs broken down by project status phased over the implementation period (EUR million)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
An
nu
al in
vestm
en
t le
vel (E
UR
million
)
New projects
Ongoing projects
Committed projects
Investment costs by transport mode and scope for all projects (EUR million)
AirportBorder Cros-sing
I. Water-ways
Multi-modal
RailRoad Sea
port
Construction
Provision of equipment
Rehabilitation/reconstruction
Upgrading
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Investment costs by transport mode and scope for all "New projects" (EUR million)
Construction
Provision of equipment
Rehabilitation/reconstruction
Upgrading
Airport Bordercrossing
Multi-modal Rail Road
Sea port
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Roads and Rail - phased investment costs broken down by project status (EUR million)Roads
Rail0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year
Million
Eu
r
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year
Million
Eu
rNew projects
Ongoing projects
Committed projects
Investment costs and GDP
Estimated
GDP
Total GDP Assumed real growth
in period
Estimated investment costs (mill.
EUR)(2003 -prices)
Investment/
GDP
Year 2003 2004-2009 2004-2009 2004-2009 2004-2009
Unit Bn EUR Bn EUR (2003 prices) Real growth (%) Bn EUR (2003 prices)
% of BNP
Albania 5.5 40.9 45% 555 1.4%
Bosnia 6.1 49.2 28% 531 1.1%
Croatia 25.3 206.4 27% 950 0.5%
Kosovo* 1.7 14.7 33% 106 0.7%
Macedonia 3.8 39.3 26% 292 0.7%
Serbia & Montenegro
12.3 108.1 32% 1,258 1.2%
Source: The GDP figures are estimated based on the World Bank's GDP figures for 2001 and projected based on real growth rates between 3.7% and 6.5% per year. The figure for Kosovo is estimated by IMF who assess the GDP to be 3 bn Deutsche Mark corresponding to around 1.5 bn EUR in year 2000.
Long Term Investment Programming Investment planning is an on-going and continues Investment planning is an on-going and continues
processprocess
New projects need to be identified and included in the New projects need to be identified and included in the planning process immediately after 2004planning process immediately after 2004
A starting point is REBIS identified projects not A starting point is REBIS identified projects not included in the Short Term Investment Planincluded in the Short Term Investment Plan
A regional monitoring mechanism with access to A regional monitoring mechanism with access to technical back-up is a corner stone for a coherent technical back-up is a corner stone for a coherent development of infrastructure of regional importancedevelopment of infrastructure of regional importance
Long term challenges and requirements Roads:Roads:
Major investments in road capacity only after 2010Major investments in road capacity only after 2010
STIP includes only about 50% of estimated STIP includes only about 50% of estimated investment requirements 2004-2015investment requirements 2004-2015
Long term challenges and requirements Rail:Rail:
Large-scale upgrading of infrastructure to Large-scale upgrading of infrastructure to AGC/AGTC standards is not recommended in the AGC/AGTC standards is not recommended in the first few years, where focus should be on business first few years, where focus should be on business developmentdevelopment
Modernisation should be considered when Modernisation should be considered when rehabilitation of existing lines is plannedrehabilitation of existing lines is planned
STIP includes only about 10% of estimated costs of STIP includes only about 10% of estimated costs of upgrading to European standard 2004 -2015upgrading to European standard 2004 -2015
Long term challenges and requirements Ports and airports:Ports and airports:
Long term requirements are difficult to assess in Long term requirements are difficult to assess in a future competitive environment where user a future competitive environment where user charging will be an important source of financing charging will be an important source of financing
IWW:IWW:
Major investments are needed, especially in the Major investments are needed, especially in the Danube. Type and level will be determined in Danube. Type and level will be determined in upcoming studiesupcoming studies
Management information systems
Infrastructure is an asset which:Infrastructure is an asset which:
needs to be maintained and improvedneeds to be maintained and improved
to ensure maximum value for money of the to ensure maximum value for money of the
infrastructureinfrastructure
needs to build on up-to-date information onneeds to build on up-to-date information on
conditions and usageconditions and usage
Efficient management consists of a managed series of Efficient management consists of a managed series of
works and activities which:works and activities which:
Road management information systems Status:Status: In most countries dataIn most countries data exists, but often in exists, but often in
separate, paper based systems, which are not separate, paper based systems, which are not always updated regularlyalways updated regularly
Needs:Needs: Extension of traffic counting to the entire networkExtension of traffic counting to the entire network Updating of data on structuresUpdating of data on structures Improved bridge management systemsImproved bridge management systems ComputerisationComputerisation of data before unified systems are developed of data before unified systems are developed Improved co-operation between police and road authorities to obtain Improved co-operation between police and road authorities to obtain
better data on accidents in better data on accidents in order to improve road safetyorder to improve road safety
Rail management information systems Status:Status:
Inventories on conditions of structures and Inventories on conditions of structures and
traffic are mainly paper basedtraffic are mainly paper based
Needs:Needs:
Development of computerised systems, which Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient wayefficient way
Port management information systems Status:Status:
Inventories on conditions of structures are mainly paper Inventories on conditions of structures are mainly paper
based, whereas traffic data more often is recorded in a based, whereas traffic data more often is recorded in a
computerised systemcomputerised system
Needs:Needs:
Development of computerised systems, which Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient wayefficient way
Airport management information systems Status: Status:
There are generally no management information systems in the There are generally no management information systems in the
airports.airports.
Data are kept in a mix of paper and computerised systems; traffic Data are kept in a mix of paper and computerised systems; traffic
data is most often recorded in computerised systemsdata is most often recorded in computerised systems
Needs:Needs:
Development of computerised systems, which Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient wayefficient way
Inland waterway management information systems
Status:Status:
Croatia and Serbia have computerised their Croatia and Serbia have computerised their
data to some extentdata to some extent
Needs:Needs:
Especially Serbia needs to develop computerised Especially Serbia needs to develop computerised
systems and to update date on traffic and systems and to update date on traffic and
conditions, which will facilitate assessment of conditions, which will facilitate assessment of
needs in a more efficient wayneeds in a more efficient way