strategic paths: spicejet airlines, struggling lcc (india)

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STRATEGIC PATHS: SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA) PART 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Corporate Information SpiceJet Limited was incorporated on February 9, 1984 as a limited Company under the Indian Companies Act, 1956 and is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The Company is engaged in the business of providing air transport services for the carriage of passengers and cargo. The Company is a low cost carrier (‘LCC’) operating under the brand name of ‘SpiceJet’ in India since May 23, 2005. SpiceJet presently operates the new-generation Boeing 737-800s (20 numbers) with winglets and Boeing 737-900ER (04 numbers). These aircraft allow for safe, comfortable and efficient flying and are ideally suited for short to medium-haul flights in Indian conditions. Bombardier Q400 (14 numbers) are operated for short haul routes, these aircrafts are known for their fuel efficiency and comfort. SpiceJet has also obtained permission of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to operate on selected routes outside India and commenced international operations from October 2010 The Company has incurred a loss of approx103 million dollars for the year ended March 31, 2015, and has accumulated losses of approx 500 million dollars against shareholders’ funds of approx 300 million dollars. As of this date, the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets by 190 million dollars.(Reference 2)Historically the Company’s operating results have been materially affected by various factors, including high aviation turbine fuel (“ATF”) costs, significant depreciation in the value of the currency, and pricing pressures. On account of its operational and financial position, the Company had also delayed payments to various parties, including vendors and its dues to statutory authorities,

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Page 1: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

STRATEGIC PATHS:

SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

PART 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Corporate Information

SpiceJet Limited was incorporated on February 9, 1984 as a limited

Company under the Indian Companies Act, 1956 and is listed on the Bombay

Stock Exchange. The Company is engaged in the business of providing air

transport services for the carriage of passengers and cargo. The Company is a low

cost carrier (‘LCC’) operating under the brand name of ‘SpiceJet’ in India since

May 23, 2005. SpiceJet presently operates the new-generation Boeing 737-800s

(20 numbers) with winglets and Boeing 737-900ER (04 numbers). These aircraft

allow for safe, comfortable and efficient flying and are ideally suited for short to

medium-haul flights in Indian conditions. Bombardier Q400 (14 numbers) are

operated for short haul routes, these aircrafts are known for their fuel efficiency

and comfort. SpiceJet has also obtained permission of the Directorate General of

Civil Aviation (DGCA) to operate on selected routes outside India and commenced

international operations from October 2010

The Company has incurred a loss of approx103 million dollars for the

year ended March 31, 2015, and has accumulated losses of approx 500 million

dollars against shareholders’ funds of approx 300 million dollars. As of this date,

the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets by 190 million

dollars.(Reference 2)Historically the Company’s operating results have been

materially affected by various factors, including high aviation turbine fuel (“ATF”)

costs, significant depreciation in the value of the currency, and pricing pressures.

On account of its operational and financial position, the Company had also delayed

payments to various parties, including vendors and its dues to statutory authorities,

Page 2: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

over the last 12-18 months. These factors have resulted in a material uncertainty

that may cause significant doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a

going concern.

2. COMPANY RESEARCH

2.1 Environment and competitor analysis

Environmental analysis provides insights into a vibrant and competitive

market with high growth. The LCC market in India is in high growth phase with

ample room for multiple firms to grow. Demographically India is in a sweet spot,

with high growth and sizable population willing and able to afford air travel; next

few years will continue to witness high growth and profitability for air operators.

Strong GDP numbers are also complemented by high Tourism growth numbers,

enhancing growth for domestic as well as international carriers. (Ref. 1)

Indian airline industry is growing at a phenomenal growth rate of 18 to 20 %

YOY basis as per latest stats published by DGCA, the Indian Aviation Regulator.

With Indian GDP expected to grow between 7 to 9 % for next 10 years and huge

population to service, this segment will witness interesting developments. On the

expenses side top three inputs in this segment are Aircraft ownership cost, fuel and

highly specialized manpower. With the lucky drop in ATF prices internationally

most operators have come out of the red in recent months and are entering into fuel

hedging contracts to extend their advantage. Cheap manpower though available in

plenty, but a general deficiency in highly trained and qualified manpower areas

exists. Even today there are a large number of expat pilots employed on the

domestic routes.

2.2 Industry Analysis

With the aviation sector continuing to see a spurt in traffic, many domestic

airlines posted good growth as they ferried 78.72 lakh passengers in March with

no-frills carrier indiGo carrying most passengers during the same period. While the

overall passenger growth stood at around 5.3%, the market share of IndiGo jumped

to 38.4% in March followed by Jet Airways at 17.6% and Air India (14.7%).Latest

data from aviation regulator DGCA released showed that local airlines carried

Page 3: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

78.72 lakh passengers last month compared to 74.76 lakh in February. Market

share of various operators in domestic Indian market is as shown:-

Figure 1.Market Share airlines

Socio-cultural trend are likely to remain significant in the near future.

With a large chunk of middle class coupled with high growth in a democratic and

relatively free market environment, these socio cultural factors are likely to

remain positive. An emerging aspect of environmental pollution including noise

is likely to be a significant factor in the coming years. On the technological

front, most LCCs have been using Airbus 320 or Boeing 737s.Both these

aircrafts provide value for money and are economical to operate. Airbus has

launched Airbus 320 Neo recently, which offers 10 to 15 % fuel economy than its

predecessor. These aircrafts have 10 to 15% premium on lease rentals as well.

With high switchover costs considerations, almost all the operators are likely to

continue with their existing fleets. LCC model encourages single type of aircraft

to increase synergy in operations and to reduce costs.

2.3 Competitors' analysis

Major competitors in Low Cost Carrier space are Jet Airways, Air India,

Spice Jet, IndiGo Airlines, and few others with minimal market share. Indian

scenario has also witnessed intense price and differentiation competition in recent

times. Jet Airways and Air India are Full service carriers and operate in a different

sub-segment of this market i.e. full service operators.

Page 4: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Nearest rivals for SpiceJet are Indigo and Go Air which are Low cost operators

and operate in the same space as SpiceJet .Their relative position is as depicted in

the Strategy map (fig. 2). Nature of competition among LCC is based on

operational excellence, innovative cost cutting and branding. Detailed Competitors

analysis data and strategy map depicting positions of various operators is as

shown.

Fig 2. STRATEGY MAP

Spice Jet reported a net profit of Rs 23.77 crore in the third quarter this year driven by a steep fall in fuel costs and other expenses. Spice Jet benefited from over a 57 percent drop in jet fuel bill. The airline recorded a load factor of 92.8 percent for the quarter, the highest in the industry," the release said. In line with year-on-year capacity reduction of 34 percent that was driven by a smaller fleet in late 2014. Competitor analysis matrix is composed of some important KPIs indicating performance is shown in fig 3 below. As PLF of SpiceJet is highest in the market it can be safely deduced that sales team is very competent. Management needs to scale up operations in a manner that sales team can match

Dif

fere

nti

atio

n

Profitability

INDIGO

JET AIRLINES

AIR INDIA

SPICEJET

Market share (size)

Page 5: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

up. Acquisition plans can be finalized in a manner which requires minimum cost of capital. This will maximize returns and surplus will fund future growth.

COMPETITORS

PERFORMANCE

METRICS

CAPABILITIES

VALUES

STRATEGY

Mkt share

PLF Depar tures

SPICEJET

11.7

92.1

8148

Dynamic Mgt Prime Slots

Low cost with style

LCC

INDIGO

39.8

84.7

23869

Focused LCC wide network Consistent performance

Low cost with

quality

LCC

AIRINDIA

14.8

80.3

9218

Public sector, Sufficient Funding

Full service

FSC

JETAIRLINES

16.3

82.5

12659

Consistent performance, International slots

Full service

FSC

GO AIRLINES

7.16

84.9

4507

Fringe player Low cost evolving

LCC

Fig 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS (data as on jul 16)

3. STRATEGIC ISSUES.

SpiceJet is facing many strategic issues and critical choices at the moment.

Current management is trying to reverse some of the big steps that were taken by

the previous management, including the decision to introduce 78-seater turboprops

by the former CEO Neil Mills. But the turnaround won't be easy, given that the

airline has a slew of legacy issues. Its problems include two types of aircraft in its

fleet, a pile of dues, a high employee-plane ratio, mounting losses and a brand

image that has been hurt in recent months due to a series of flight cancellations and

passenger dissatisfaction.

3.1 Focused LCC

Foremost strategic issue is that SpiceJet has to move completely towards the

low-cost carrier (LCC) model. Globally, successful LCCs such as Southwest

Airlines, Ryanair and JetBlue have followed the one-aircraft model. SpiceJet, even

though it is an LCC, has two types of aircraft - Bombardier Q400s and Boeing

737s.SpiceJet bought Q400s in 2011 for short-haul flights connecting large cities -

Page 6: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Hyderabad, Delhi, Chennai - with regional hubs as many airports in these smaller

towns were not capable of landing large aircraft. For instance, airports at cities like

Dehradun and Dharamshala have runways capable of handling only small aircraft

(ATRs and Q400s). Moreover, Q400s made sense because they are fuel-efficient.

Without realising that it could potentially increase the overall costs in the long

term, SpiceJet placed an order for 30 such aircraft.

Today, it has 14 of these jets in its 36-strong fleet. The problem is that a fleet

containing two different types of aircraft increases operational, financial and

managerial complexities. For instance, an airline needs to keep different sets of

pilots, engineers and crew; different contracts and additional cost of maintenance,

repair and overhaul (MRO).

Also, SpiceJet owns these Q400s, unlike the Boeing 737s that it has leased.

So, the company cannot return the Q400s and the options it has is to either sell or

lease these jets. For now, the Q400s have been included in the summer schedule

because Singh doesn't want to create a vacuum all of a sudden. "These planes can

be sold. Let me see if I can first make money from them. If I sell them, I don't

know what price I will get. We will have to consider everything," he says.

The departures will increase to 280 in summer as the fleet size will reach 40 with

the addition of more Boeings. "We want to increase the fleet to 46-47 in the winter

schedule depending on demand. The expansion is happening on the Boeing fleet,"

says its CEO.

3.2 Capital Infusion

Second strategic issue SpiceJet is facing is urgent capital infusion. Considering the

near bankruptcy which SpiceJet narrowly missed, and the subsequent change of

ownership, SpiceJet has seen infusion of some Rs 500 crore from Singh. As per the

plan, the airline will get Rs 1,500 crore of fresh infusion in three equal tranches of

Rs 500 crore. The airline still owes around Rs 1,000 crore to vendors and lessors,

as well as engineering payments and some airport dues. As SpiceJet needs working

capital to sustain and urgent capital infusion to the tune of 1500 crores is critical.

3.3 Rationalizing Its Network/Operations

SpiceJet is working on other areas to bring down non-fuel costs. It has

rationalized its workforce. However, more needs to be done. As per the global

LCC standards, an airline should not have more than 90 people per aircraft. In

early 2013, this figure stood at 140 for SpiceJet. It has been brought down now. In

the summer schedule, it will be 95-97 people per aircraft, according to its CEO.

Cost cutting by controlling the employee-aircraft ratio (Efficiency) is a significant

part of overall strategy for all LCCs.

In the cost-control exercise, IndiGo's employee-aircraft ratio is

approximately 100-102 now. However, Jet Airways has a ratio of 130, while Air

Page 7: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

India's number is 262. IndiGo closely monitors turnaround time and fixes tough

targets: currently it gets an aircraft ready for its next flight in 31 minutes (Industry

record). This helps the airline achieve its target of keeping the plane airborne.

Also, its fleet consists of only one type of aircraft: the Airbus A-320. That’s why; it

is required to deal with one set of pilots, spares and engines. This simplifies the

process of running the airline and also keeps costs on a tight leash. This is in

contrast to a rival like SpiceJet which has two sets of aircraft. SpiceJet in order to

become strong competitor has to engage in major cost cutting exercise without

compromising on quality issues.

3.4 Realign Marketing Strategy

One of the main reasons that brought down SpiceJet under Marans (Previous

Owner) was the frequent flash sales - fares offered at lower rates to drive ticket

sales. It seems that even the new promoter is following the same path to a lesser

intensity. Since January 28, there have been six flash sales by SpiceJet, the most

recent being the "Color the Skies" offer for Holi(Indian festival) where tickets for

domestic flights are sold at Rs 1,699 and international flights at Rs 3,799. A total

of 1, 00,000 seats were on offer under this sale. Flash sales are an interesting way

of stimulating demand. Due to suspension of service, the carrier had become a little

unreliable. People had stopped thinking of flying on SpiceJet. These sales allowed

people to sample SpiceJet again," management says. This point assumes

significance considering indigo airline, the main competitor for SpiceJet never

indulges in such Flash Sales at through away prices.

3.5 Renegotiate Service Contracts.

One important integral factor to operations cost is maintenance and spares which

constitute a major chunk of the operational costs. As we say the airline is

profitable the longer it stays in the air. The focal point here is that any LCC

doesn’t have to maintain a large inventory of spares or engines. Most engine

manufacturers are offering new service contracts, which offer maintenance costs

based on number of hours flown by the engines. This simplifies the cost control

mechanism, especially for LCCs, which mostly operates on a tight budget. How

the grounded aircraft is bad can be pointed out by what happened in 2010 when

Kingfisher Airlines had to ground its aircraft because of snags in the engine, but

IndiGo, which used the same machine didn't had to because of the elaborate vendor

support contracts. These contracts though look costly but work out useful in the

long run, considering unpredictable environment and slow parts import

mechanisms prevailing in India. Also, IndiGo gets its C-checks done in Sri Lanka,

unlike its competitors who send their aircraft to as far as Dubai, Hong Kong,

Page 8: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Singapore etc. Obviously, this along with maintenance costs is the defining number

that drives the business.

4. MAJOR STRATEGIC ISSUE

SpiceJet has been dishing out very good statistics for the past 6 months. A

detailed look at its financials reveals inherent weaknesses which can’t be overcome

by operational excellence alone. Considering low ATF costs and booming

domestic sector coupled with easy aircraft availability now is the best time to

accumulate some capital for future hard days. If ATF prices pick up or some

geopolitical incident impacts negatively air travel, Airlines should have enough

capital to absorb shocks. As Indian market is entering sustained double digit

growth in demand existing players are jockeying for position of competitive

advantage by adopting different strategies. Competitors which identify real issues

and address these by following correct strategy in tandem with changing

environment will reap benefits. Considering present market dynamics and by using

competitor analysis Sustainable Growth seems to be of utmost significance.

Sustainable Growth. SpiceJet is currently grappling with capital inadequacy

issues and also had to lose many aircraft due to lease renewal issues. On the other

hand it is doing very well on most operational KPIs viz. OTP, PLF, RPKs and

departures to name a few. This indicates that it has a strong operations and sales

teams but it needs to clean up its financial and other issues to be a potent

competitor in Indian market. As all indicators point to a strong growth in the

domestic market, SpiceJet has to find way to achieve growth in integral and cost

effective manner. Their operations department should be able to support sustained

growth and airline should aim at least 20% market share by last quarter 2018.

Airlines are inherently capital intensive and in order to fund growth and scale up

operations, access to adequate funds by promoters is essential. LCCs are operating

on razor thin margins, any extra outgo towards cost of capital or poorly funded

acquisition plans can make or mar an LCC. It should be a prime strategic issue for

management of SpiceJet to resolve.

Page 9: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

PART II: PATHS FOR STRATEGIC ACTION

Considering the target of sustainable growth as being the single most

strategic issue faced by Spice Jet, it can be safely assumed that Airline

management should focus exclusively on Growth in the near future. There are

many other issues which need to be addressed to by forming a joint strategy

catering to most of these issues.

Various paths can be adopted to achieve sustainable growth .As Indian civil

aviation is witnessing a boom time(Ref. 1) especially in the LCC segment, where

SpiceJet is operating, it doesn’t have to change its position relative to its

competitors. Though its tag line says; Airline with Spice, actually what passengers

consider utmost while buying LCC ticket is Cost, Schedule, Connectivity and

punctuality in same order of priority. It is opined that Spice Jet should focus

primarily on the cost cutting as a survival measure rather than an option. Most

critical parameter and KPI to watch closely, probably on the daily basis is CASK.

(Cost per Aircraft Seat Kilometer flown)However following three discreet paths

are advocated to steer the company to desired competitive position vis-a-vis its

competitors. These are:

a) Conventional growth through scaling up operations.

b) Reorganize operations and aim for organic growth till losses are wiped out.

c) Recapitalize then scale up aggressively.

Option 1: Conventional growth through scaling up operations.

Classical model for growth advocates achieving this by:

i) Standard scaling up operations.

ii) Entry into new areas or segments.

iii) Innovation.

iv) Acquisition.

Page 10: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Current environmental analysis shows achieving growth by acquisition as the least

attractive option. As most low cost operators are operating with dry lease aircrafts,

acquiring other regional LCC doesn’t do any value addition to the SpiceJet. There

is very little scope to innovate either in the LCC segment to achieve dramatic

results. As most customers of Indian low-cost segment are primarily focused on

cost and schedule of the flight, any innovative value addition which increases the

cost of travel is likely to be rejected by most travelers. In this scenario only

innovation which can cut down costs of operation without compromising safety

and regulatory aspects will only be worthy of acceptance.

The above mentioned facts lead us to the only serious efforts to be focused

towards achieving growth by scaling up and by entry into new growth sectors.

Considering the competitive environment in low cost carriers and their growth

plans, it seems that most competitors have already planned capacity expansion for

next two to three years. IndiGo is a major contender with committed capacity

expansion. They already have plans and contracted for capacity expansion at the

rate of 25% YOY basis, as disclosed in their last Quarter disclosure.(Ref. 4).Threat

to serious expansion by increasing capacity also comes from an unexpected

competitor Air India. Recently Air India has launched scheme whereby it will offer

its unsold tickets at the train fares just 3 hrs before flight. It is yet to impact the

markets significantly but it has the potential to spoil the party for other LCCs in the

long run.

The only difference that a management can make is; study the increased

capacity deployments plan of other competitors and redeploy our own capacity as

per our own strengths and exclusive insights. This can turn out to be a

differentiating factor, and yield better result as compared to our competitors.

Summary of path 1.

Aim for Organic growth, scale up operations through conventional funding

Pros:

i) Right thing to do as per conventional wisdom, when market demand is growing

go for capacity expansion capture large market share as quickly as possible.

ii) PLF is high if capacity expansion deployed properly may result in windfall.

iii) Last qtr financial results indicate Growth in terms of RASK as well, this

indicates company could achieve increased supply without dropping ticket prices,

that gives confidence going ahead with capacity roll out.

Page 11: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Cons:

i) Most competitors going in for capacity expansion, it is likely that yields will

drop across the board, may result in losses or may take longer to break even.

ii) Cost of funding may increase CASK/M, with decreasing yields projected from

last quarter FY 16 may stretch already stressed balance sheet.

iii) If capacity roll out is not planned properly yields may fall. In view of external

debt used for capacity build up, situation may be precarious, especially if there is

sudden fall in traffic volumes like 9/11 in the USA market. (No scope for error)

Option 2: Growth through reorganizing operations.

Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contract.

The given environment can be analysed as a high growth market with high

level of competition. Most competitors have very little differentiation leverage to

increase yields. Only way to increase profitability is to reduce costs. Considering

Fuel and ownership costs for aircraft being the major component of operating

costs, it seems SpiceJet is sitting on a Golden opportunity. Currently SpiceJet has

15 Bombardier Q 400 Aircraft which the company purchased in 2012.In recent

years SpiceJet is trying to revert to classical LCC model by shifting to single type

of aircraft. This reversal is being considered actively by SpiceJet management due

to failed strategy pushed by previous CEO. In my opinion that strategy was not a

bad strategy at all, it failed because of poor execution and inability of SpiceJet

management to finalize effective and economical maintenance contracts for Q 400

fleet.

As it is well known that Q400 is extremely efficient and economical aircraft

and would have yielded handsome returns provided Team SpiceJet been able to

implement a workable operational usage plan. Because the management could not

put together operational utilization plan (pilots and Maintenance regime), this fleet

acted as a drag for the company and present management is exploring

economically prudent ways to come out of this situation. There are indications that

company might dispose of these aircraft and switch to single aircraft policy.

Page 12: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

It is proposed that SpiceJet revisits the strategy of hiving of Bombardier fleet at a

loss and instead works on a better implementation strategy for the old plan. In

recent years there have been some significant changes in the environment which

supports this approach. First and the foremost is significant enhancement of

Bombardier company operations and facilities in India. SpiceJet should

renegotiate Aircraft maintenance contracts with the Parent company at an attractive

cost. As bombardier is expanding its operations in India they also need new

contracts. SpiceJet should aim to bargain with a benchmark rates to bring

maintenance costs to a fraction of Airbus or Boeing, which almost all of its

competitors are using. As it is already well known that Q 400 operating cost per

RPK/M is a fraction of that of Boeing for short hauls, it will turn out to be a win-

win situation for both SpiceJet as well as Bombardier.

This approach will also benefit SpiceJet in meeting RDG guidelines of

Indian Regulator (DGCA). As per latest Route Dispersal Guidelines there are three

types of routes for Scheduled operators. Routes Type I are lucrative trunk routes,

whereas type II are remote and hilly locations. Types III are the remaining routes.

As per directive all operators to deploy 10% of their Type I capacity on Type II

and not more than 50% on type III. SpiceJet in proposed path will have tremendous

cost benefit in type II and Type III routes and steadily become a cost leader in this

segment. If required for administrative and operational reasons SpiceJet may form

a subsidiary for Q 400 operations based at Calcutta or Lucnow, which are less

congested and are located close to most of these routes.

Summary of path 2.

Proposed path-Reorganize operations and target growth in an organic manner

pursue Alliances to reduce costs.

Pros:

i) Slow growth will ensure optimal capacity utilization

ii) No risk of dropping yields

iii) Extensive utilization of Q400 fleet will ensure higher yields and comparatively

lesser CASK/M.

iv) Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contracts will reduce

costs and free management from difficult and complex spare supply chain and

maintenance issues.

Page 13: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

v) More profitability will ensure reduction in debt costs.

Cons:

i) In this approach company will not be able to capture fair share of volume growth

market in India.

ii) No increase in market share and will be difficult to catch up at a later stage.

iii) If not able to execute strategic alliance with Bombardier then risk of saddled

high cost maintenance operations may pull down bottom-line.

Option 3: Recapitalize before scaling up operations for Growth.

SpiceJet is currently in un-enviable position when it comes to capital

Adequacy. With a large Airline operator going bankrupt, in recent times, many

promoters are shaky to put in bulk of their own money to fund capacity growth.

Airline business inherently has long breakeven cycles and many external factors

that affect profitability.

Present financial status of the company is showing early signs of recovery, but a lot

needs to done. SpiceJet reported a net profit of Rs. 407Crore ($62 million dollars))

for FY2016 as against a loss of Rs. 687 Crore (105 million dollars) for FY 2015, a

positive change of Rs. 1094 Crores (167 million dollars). SpiceJet generated

operational revenue of Rs.1, 475 Crore (225 million dollars) in the current quarter,

a growth of 86% over same quarter last year. For FY 2016, SpiceJet posted

operational revenue of Rs. 5,088 Crore (772million dollars) a reduction of 3%

over FY 2015, while its capacity deployed reduced by 11% over the same period.

These figures show that company has achieved desired course correction in real

terms and may be able to bring in strategic investor at equitable terms.

In the proposed approach it is advocated that it will be prudent at this stage

to find a cash rich partner to recapitalize the company. It will bring in much needed

cash to fund operational expenses, pay outstanding dues and provide much needed

capital for capacity expansion. Currently SpiceJet liabilities exceed assets by

around 1500 crores. (Approx 230 million dollars)

It is proposed that SpiceJet makes all out efforts to identify a strategic

investor soon and brings in 500 million dollars of investment. Company is already

Page 14: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

working in this direction and is making all efforts to strengthen its balance sheet

before entering any serious negotiations. Reduction of costly debt off its balance

sheet will make costs lower and expansion viable.

Summary of path 3.

Recapitalize: bring in strategic investor and capital for capacity expansion.

Pros:

i) It will reduce costs on account of debt servicing.

ii) It will support economical capacity expansion plan.

iii) It will enhance company reputation in long run amongst suppliers.

Cons:

i) Difficult to find strategic investor for an airline which is already in the red:

250 million dollars can start a new LCC instead.

ii) Strategic investor may bring in cash at unfavorable conditions for existing

shareholders.

Page 15: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

APPENDIX A

Subject: PERFORMANCE OF DOMESTIC AIRLINES FOR THE YEAR 2016. (Source http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines)

Traffic data submitted by various domestic airlines has been analysed for the

month of July 2016. Following are the salient features:

Passenger Growth

Passengers carried by domestic airlines during Jan-Jul 2016 were 560.87 lakhs as against 455.95 lakhs during the corresponding period of previous year thereby registering a growth of 23.01% (Ref Table 1).

Pa

x C

arr

ied

(in

La

khs)

600.00

500.00

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00

560.87 Growth: YoY = + 23.01 % MoM = + 25.82%

455.95

2015

2016

67.62 85.08

YoY MoM

Table 1

Page 16: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

Passenger Load Factor

The passenger load factors of various scheduled domestic airlines in July 2016

are as follows (Ref Table 2):

Jul-16 Jun-16

Pa

x Lo

ad

Fa

cto

r (%

)

100.0

80.3

82.0

83.8

79.1

80.9

75.2

92.0

93.0

90.3

84.6

83.6

77.9

80.8

81.5

85.7

90.2

75.2

79.0

84.0

82.2

79.4

81.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

Air India

Jet

JetLite

Spicejet

Go Air

IndiGo

Air Costa

Air Asia

Vistara

Air

Trujet

Airways Pegasus

Table 2

The passenger load factor in the month of July 2016 has almost

remained constant compared to previous month primarily due to the end

of tourist season.

Page 17: STRATEGIC PATHS:  SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

III - ADDENDUM OF EXHIBITS AND REFERENCES.

1. http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines

2. http://www.spicejet.com/CorporateOverview.aspx dated 11 Sep 2016

3. InvestorPresentation-Q4FY16 SpiceJet Corporate disclosure.

4. https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goindigo/6e-website/pdf/investor-

relation/financial-results/financial-year-2016-17/quarter-ended-june-30-2016