startegic futures

Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region

Australia; The European TigerZorba Parer

Defining the Region

• A China centric view of the region is forming around clear data indicating a growth in all elements of Chinese national power

• Indo-Asia-Pacific as a hemispherical system• Indo-Asia-Pacific maritime region• The Indian Ocean maritime region• The Pacific Ocean maritime region• Mainland Asia

Sub-Regions• Asia

– North, East, South, West• Indian Ocean

– SLOC to Africa, Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe, Asia and littoral regions• Pacific Ocean

– SLOC to South America, North America, Siberia, Asia, and Pacific Littoral States

• Oceania– Passage between Indian and Pacific oceans.– SLOC to Australian east coast and New Zealand

• This is a region dominated by maritime geography, and transport economics.

Exceptionalism• Quadrella of exceptional States– USA; Global hegemonic power, balancing costs of maintaining

the Global Commons, with ability to influence State to State relations.

– China; Communist Billion Citizen State, seeking to rise pacifically.

– India; Most populous democracy, seeking to ensure continued Indian Ocean dominance, and influence within the Asia land mass.

– Japan; forced demilitarisation, economic power projection, civil institutions with monopoly on use of force within Japanese jurisdiction.

Articles Reviewed

• Cooperation from Strength The United States, China and the South China Sea– January 2012, Edited by Patrick M. Cronin– Contributors, Patrick M Cronin, Peter A Dutton, M Taylor

Fravel, James R Holmes, Robert D Kaplan, Will Rogers, and Ian Storey

• Power and Choice; Asian Security Futures– Rory Medcalf

• International Relations of Asia (2008)– Chapter 15 by Ralph A Cossa

International Relations of Asia

• No settled pattern of order in Asia. All the major powers are in processes of transition.

• Rise of China as single most significant contributor to regional change in Asian power structures.

• India rising, but not as quickly as China.• Need for domestic structural reforms and uncertainties

about how best to assert a more active international and regional role are evident in Japan.

• Russia trying to reassert its Asia presence.• Continued reliance on US military dominance.

International Relations of Asia• Growing Chinese pre-eminence• Japan seeking to ‘normalise’ as a nation• India looking east, seeking a more active role in Asia-Pacific• ASEAN; increasingly institutionalised, driving regional cooperation• Near term security issues

– Korean Peninsula tensions– China-Taiwan tensions

• Continued importance of existing USA-Bilateral security arrangements

• Geopolitical Considerations• Regional geographical considerations

International Relations of Asia

• Pathways to the Future; Two Scenarios– Continuation of current order, moderated by USA primacy

• Dependent on massive military commitments to the region• At risk of a declining USA economy• Increased US involvement in regional multilateralism

– Multipolar system, with sub-regional hegemens dominating the Indo-Asia-Pacific region• A weakening US • Chinese band wagoning by US allied states• Concert of powers possible (US, China, India, and Russia)• Coalitions attempting to form a balance of powers.

Cooperation from StrengthChapter I – Executive Summary

• Main thesis - Cooperative Primacy– Increased US Naval presence, contingent upon a

healthy US Economy. – A new web of US security partnerships– Peace and security assurance in the South China Sea– Increased US economic engagement in the Region– Increased focus on US-China relations, supporting

rules based system of cooperation and dispute resolution


• History as a record of Chinese geostrategic centrality in Asia

• 150 Years of political upheaval after Millennia of Chinese rule

• Chinese claims over South China Sea can be understood as a Greater Caribbean moment– Constructivism anyone?

• Leading Asian arms modernisation• Hemispherical economic dependencies– Could China survive without Japan?


• Nations surrounding China, economically engaged and hedging USA as an offshore balancer– US Chinese conflict not a favourable option for risk

averse minor nations: Australia, NZ, Papua, Indonesia. Produces bias against any China-US conflict.

– [Z} Australian Defence Budget as an indicator• Submarines as the ultimate maritime presence• Aerial surveillance and the age drones• Air lift and emergency response


• China rebuffs attempts to move the South China Sea disputes from regional to global forums

• Great power behaviour evident in Chinese moves to bilateral agreements, versus multilateral engagement– Does USA movement to multilateral engagement signal a

abdication of their Great Power status?– Limits of Realism in an Institutionalised power structure?

• UNCLOS and other Customary International Laws tend to limit Great Power influence.– Theoretical tangent: Is this an example of a self destructive

tendency in Great Power behaviour? Self enforcing natural laws?

Cooperation from StrengthChapter II - Maritime Security in the South China Sea and the competition over Maritime Rights

• Multiple state claimants over territory is a feature of geostrategic reality in the south China sea.

• US maritime predominance necessary.• US Neutrality in Regional Dynamics• Chinese Maritime realities• ASEAN and Littoral Regions• Conflict avoidance to balance policy for US foreign

diplomacy

Cooperation from StrengthChapter III - Treaties

• History of Chinese sovereign claim. • Chinese claims not supported by UNCLOS• Maritime Resources

– Important fishing grounds– Crude oil– Natural Gas

• Sea Lane Security• Chinese policy of reassurance, and bilateral agreements

between claimants– Engagement through ASEAN in multilateral appeasement,

reversed after unpromising start

Cooperation from StrengthChapter III - Treaties

• China insists on bilateral approach– No substantive agreements have been reached via bilateral

approaches• Other claimants prefer multilateral approach to

balance Chinese influence• Failure of the 2002 DoC; further talks• China will continue blocking moves for arbitration and

3rd party intervention• China will continue asserting effective control over the

South China Sea in pursuit of it’s sovereign claims

Cooperation from StrengthChapter IV -Cracks in the Global Foundation: International Law and Instability in the South China Sea

• China asserting interests in ways which threaten the normative global maritime commons

• China seeking to Shape CIL through State behaviour

• Challenges to established positions of UNCLOS• Three pillars of Modern Globalisation– Open, Market based access to resources and trade– International Institutions fostering stability– Stability in the Global Commons


• Managing the Maritime commons• Right of access to the high seas– Enshrined in UN Charter

• Constabulary role of Navies• Multiple forms of State maritime jurisdiction• Chinese anti-access policy towards SCS• Regional Baselines– Boundaries at or near the shoreline between a coastal

state’s fully sovereign territory and the maritime zones that extend seaward.


• China is seeking to change the rules and norms that define maritime rights

• US and allies should act against this change• US should ratify UNCLOS– Great power – multilateral dilemma?

Cooperation from StrengthChapter V – The Role of Natural Resources in the South China Sea

• Natural Resources– Energy– Fisheries– Minerals

• The Challenge of Climate Change• Dynamic interaction between Land and Maritime

resources• Promoting regional stability– Alternative Fuels– Adaptive technologies

Cooperation from StrengthChapter VI – Rough Waters for Coalition Building

• US Maritime Strategy– Good order at sea– Three Principles:

• Preserving freedom of the Seas• Ensuring uninterrupted flow of shipping• Facilitating ready movement of goods and people access across US

frontiers

• Current Maritime cooperation in SCS– US assistance programs– CARAT and SEACAT

• Challenges to Maritime coalition building


• 500 years with a global maritime hegemon– Portugal – Holland – England – USA

• Multinational trusteeship (Multipolarity) would be a new phenomenon

• Dual nature of Navies makes it difficult to distinguish between Competitive and Cooperative State behaviours

• The China Factor– Chinese policy assertions of indisputable sovereignty over SCS

islands and waters– Failure of DOC– Reactions to CARAT


• Globalised economy relies of free flow of goods

• Southeast Asian states have territorial claims at stake

• Beijing view of vital interest against coalitions• Washing should work bilaterally to uphold

maritime security

Power and ChoiceFutures

• Future 1: US Primacy• Future 2: An Asian Balance of Powers• Future 3: Concert of Powers• Future 4: Chinese Primacy• Shocks

Zorba’s Thoughts• Commitments made under ASEAN agree to pacific

resolution of disputes. – Arbitration offices provided.– Disputes agreed through offsets in resolutions.– Costs of providing courts as a common good.– Dams as an example of transnational water disputes.

• Domestic constructivism– Uncertainties arising from domestic politics– Model Theories.

• Chinese Maritime presence– http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

Zorba Thoughts

• Secondary Effects - Cooperative Primacy– Answer to increased traffic through Chinese waters, the

enforcement agency grew. – This has led China to effect control of East and South China

Seas.• Nuclear capabilities on Hainan Island lead to a South China Sea

predominance.• China continues to assert rights in these matters. • Arbitration as an answer? Not likely, international laws currently

favour the Chinese opposition. China has a negative bias in acceding to any international arbitration.

• Assertions of Exceptionalism.

Vietnam - Maritime Movements

Taiwan - Maritime Movements

Taiwan – 8hrs Later

East China Sea- Maritime Movements

Korean Peninsula

Japan – Maritime Movements

Dutch – Maritime Movements

Major Strategic Factors

• US military dominance• Chinese resource demands• Japanese economic power• Indian resource demands• Multiple minor to medium sized nations

Middle and Small states

• State Survival• Maintaining Sovereignty• Balancing Great Powers• Engagement through Multilateralism

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