stan heller jamin heller host -vectorvest canada moderator · 2018. 4. 12. · neither vectorvest...

Stan HellerHost - VectorVest Canada

Jamin HellerModerator

Purpose for these monthly Forums:

• Further your knowledge of the VectorVest System.

• To share current ideas and strategies for making money and protecting wealth.

• To create opportunities to interact and share ideas with other members of our VectorVest community.

• To promote the meetings and activities of our VectorVest User Groups.

• To provide a forum for VectorVest Investors who do not live near a User Group Community.

11:00 Welcome and Purpose of Meeting (5 min.)

11:05 The 15-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.)

• Colour Guard Review – VectorVest markets around the Globe

• Strategy and Market Climate Highlights – Canada and US

11:15 User Group News (5 min)

• Meetings This Month - (Friday Views Tab/User Groups)• How to Access Recordings of Past Online Forums – www.vectorvest.ca/blog (Category - Online Forums)

11:20 Special Presentation (40 min.)

• 30 Minute Trading System, presented by Tony Jackson, Atlanta, Georgia User Group.


• Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques, presented by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada.

ADJOURN – 12:30 Eastern / 09:30 Pacific

http://www.vectorvest.ca/blog

DISCLAIMERNeither VectorVest nor any of its employees or subscribers are licensed to offer specific investment advice. You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk. This material is believed to be reliable, but neither VectorVest, Inc., nor any of its suppliers guarantee its accuracy or validity, nor are they responsible for any errors or omissions which may have occurred. The analysis, ratings, and/or recommendations made by VectorVest, and/or any of its suppliers do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance.

Everything you will see and hear today is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The information is designed to empower you to make your own investment decisions, and these decisions are yours, and yours alone to make.

11:05 The 15-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.)

• Colour Guard Review – VectorVest markets around the Globe

• Strategy and Market Climate Highlights – Canada and US

VVC/CA – -4.34% YTD VVC/US – -1.90% YTD VVC/AU – -2.11% YTD VVC/UK – -4.93% YTD

SingaporeVVC – 1.47% YTD

EuropeVVC – -0.84% YTD

Hong KongVVC – 1.37% YTD

Performance of Global Markets Tracking ETFs2018 YTD Performance

Instructors: Steve Chappell, Director of Trading Systems;

Ray Clark, Director of Educational Services; Cathy O’Nan,

Senior Instructor; and Stan Heller, VectorVest Canada.

Horizons ETFs representatives will be attending and lunch

sponsors.

Wicked Wedge

11:20 User Group News (5 min.)

Meetings This Month (Friday Views Tab/User Groups)How to Access Recordings of Past Online Forums –www.vectorvest.ca/blog (Category - Online Forums)

http://www.vectorvest.ca/blog

User Group

Meeting

NoticesFor more information including agendas, maps and driving directions, go to:

1. VectorVest Views2. Any Friday3. User Group Section

For webcast recordings and to register for upcoming Forums and Webinars, please go to:

www.vectorvest.ca Click on Live Events.

How to Access Articles and Recordings from Past Online Forums

March

February

January

December

November

October

September

August

July

June

May

April

March

February


• 30 Minute Trading System, presented by Tony Jackson, Atlanta, Georgia User Group.

30 Minute Trading System

Presented by Tony Jackson to the VectorVest International Online Forum

on April 7, 2018

[email protected]

Disclaimer

There is no guarantee that these theoretical results could be reproduced in real life trading.

There is no guarantee that future trades will perform in a similar fashion to these theoretical trades.

I am not a Licensed Professional Broker, but a trader like you.

I offer this information for your use but do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.


Would you be interested in?

• A simple trading system that uses a few ETFs

• Can be used in retirement accounts

• Requires less than 30 minutes a day to manage

• Has been back-tested over many years with over 80%

winning trades

• Requires no timing system but avoids trading in deep

bear markets


“How To Trade Like The Pros” webinar Nov 2 & 9

RSI 25 Trading System

• Developed by Larry Conners

• Focuses on ETFs in long term up trends, but are

experiencing short term corrections

• Uses 200 day SMA and 4 period RSI

• Trades only near the close of the day

RSI 25 Trading System

Entry Rules:

Buy Only When ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period

RSI Below 25

*Enter near the current day’s close

Profit Exit Criteria:

EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55.

*Exit near the current day’s close

Focuses on ETFs in long term up trends, but are experiencing

short term corrections

BUY when ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25

*Buy near the current day’s close


*Exit near the current day’s close

RSI 25 Chart Settings

200 Day Simple Moving Average

Right Click on Price | Add Moving Average / Simple


RSI – Add Parameter | Technical Analysis | RSI


RSI(4) Pane - 25 / 55 Horizontal Lines

Select Horizontal Line | Click in RSI Pane | Drag to 25 / 55

Right click on Lines to Adjust Color / Thickness / Style

BUY when ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25


Use Graph Control Panel To Get Exact RSI(4) Value

RSI 25 Unisearch

Unisearch can be used to search for Entry and Exit conditions

ProTrader needed to search for RSI condition

Realtime or Intraday data for search in last 30 minutes of day

Entry Rules:

Buy Only When ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI

Below 25

Profit Exit Criteria:

EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55

RSI 25 Buy Search

RSI 25 Buy Search – 11/07/2017

RSI 25 Sell Search

RSI 25 Sell Search – 11/16/2017

RSI Operator

RSI(4) Below 25

RSI 25 System Using The ETFs For The 4 Major Indices

*Claim made during VV webinar

RSI 25 System – 4 Major Index ETFs

SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500

DIA is the ETF for the Dow 30

QQQ is the ETF for the Nasdaq 100

IWM is the ETF for the Russell 2000


71 Set Ups in 2017 include each time RSI(4) < 25

This means you could purchase the same ETFs multiple times

before reaching the RSI(4) > 55 sell criteria.

For example, IWM had setups on 11/07, 11/09, 11/10, 11/13,

11/14, and 11/15 before the RSI(4) > 55 exit on 11/16.

Cannot automate back test in VV – No Stop based on RSI

How to Back-Test the RSI 25 System

AmiBroker

*OmniTrader (what I used)

TradeStation

Fidelity Wealth-Lab Pro

https://quantpedia.com/Links/Backtesters

NOTE: The RSI calculation needs to use “Wilders Smoothing”

https://quantpedia.com/Links/Backtesters

Back-Test of the RSI 25 System

Portfolio: $50,000

Watchlist: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM

Allocation: 25% of portfolio, no margin

Test Period: 11/01/2016 to 11/01/2017

Commissions: None

Execution: Buy/Sell using Closing Price

Back-Test of the RSI 25 System 11/01/2016 to 11/01/2017

2017 RSI 25 System - Equity Analysis

Starting_Equity $50,000.00

Ending_Equity $54,158.15

Equity_High $54,158.15

Equity_Low $49,639.49

Net_Profit $4,158.15

Avg_Ann_ROI% 8.32%

Max_Drawdown $396.15

Max_Drawdown% 0.74%

2017 RSI 25 System - Trade Analysis

Number_Of_Trades 30

Profitable_Trades% 96.67%

Largest_Win% 2.91%

Largest_Loss% 2.67%

Avg_Profit% 1.08%

Avg_Invested% 8.74%


*Claim made during VV webinar

Back-Test of the RSI 25 System

Portfolio: $50,000



Test Period: 01/01/2015 to 12/31/2015

Commissions: None


2015 RSI 25 System – Equity Analysis






Avg_Ann_ROI% 11.40%

Max_Drawdown $1,159.71

Max_Drawdown% 2.10%

2015 RSI 25 System – Trade Analysis

Number_Of_Trades 31


Largest_Win% 2.93%

Largest_Loss% 1.34%

Avg_Profit% 1.41%

Avg_Invested% 9.55%

Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Starting 2007

Portfolio: $50,000



Test Period: 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017

Commissions: None


2007-2017 RSI 25 System – Equity Analysis






Avg_Ann_ROI% 5.9%


Max_Drawdown% 14.27%

Avg_Ann_MDD% 4.7%

2007-2017 RSI 25 System – Trade Analysis

Number_Of_Trades 274


Average_Trade_Length 5 days

Longest_Trade 20 days

Largest_Win% 6.42%

Largest_Loss% 10.55%

Avg_Profit% 0.92%

Avg_Invested% 10.39%

RSI 25 System – 3x Leverage ETFs

What about using 3x Leverage ETFs?

SPXL is the 3x leverage ETF for SPY (S&P 500)

UDOW is the 3x leverage ETF DIA (Dow 30)

TQQQ is the 3x leverage ETF for QQQ (Nasdaq 100)

TNA is the 3x leverage ETF for IWM (Russell 2000)

SPXL and TNA began trading on 11/12/2008

UDOW and TQQQ began trading on 3/31/2010

First RSI 25 signal on 9/1/2009

Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Using 3x ETFs

Portfolio: $50,000

Watchlist: SPXL, UDOW, TQQQ, TNA


Test Period: 09/01/2009 to 12/31/2017

Commissions: None


2009-2017 RSI 25 System – Equity Analysis






Avg_Ann_ROI% 18.5%


Max_Drawdown% 22.57%

Avg_Ann_MDD% 8.8%

2009-2017 RSI 25 System – Trade Analysis

Number_Of_Trades 209


Average_Trade_Length 5 days

Longest_Trade 17 days

Largest_Win% 18.78%

Largest_Loss% 25.70%

Avg_Win% 4.19%

Avg_Loss% 5.95%

Avg_Profit_Per_Trade% 2.98%

Avg_Invested% 10.54%

What If I Don’t Have Real-time or Intra-day Data?

Check the charting tools available from your broker

Broker Platform

Schwab StreetSmart Central

Fidelity ActiveTraderPro

TD Ameritrade ThinkOrSwim

Compare RSI(4) value against VectorVest RSI(4)

SPY on 11/15/2017 had an RSI(4) value of 18.6186

Schwab StreetSmart Central Chart

Fidelity ActiveTraderPro Chart

TD Ameritrade ThinkOrSwim Chart

Questions?

12:00 Special Presentation (25min.)

• Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques, presented by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada

Random Tips and Ideas for Making Money With VectorVest

TODAY’S TOPIC: Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques.

April 7, 2018

Stan Heller, Presenter

What Is The ADX➢ ADX: Average Directional Index;

developed in 1978 by J. Welles

Wilder

➢ The ADX by itself is a non-

directional, Price Trend Strength

Indicator. We use ADX to show if

market is trending or non-

trending, and identify how strong

is the trend.

➢ The ADX is constructed from two

directional indicators called DI’s,

or Directional Movement Index.

The trend is deemed to be bullish

when the +DI (green line) is

above the –DI (red line).

What Is The ADX➢ The ADX together with +DI and –DI can form an effective trading system

✓ Use the +DI/-DI as your price direction indicator

✓ +DI/-DI crossovers can deliver Buy/Sell signals on their own, but generally best used in

conjunction with ADX

✓ Use ADX to show if market is trending or non-trending, and the strength of the trend

General Guidelines:

• If ADX rises above 10-18 after being lower, expect the market to trend

• If ADX crosses above 20 from below, the market is trending

• If ADX crosses below 20, the market is consolidating or non-trending

• If ADX crosses below 35-40 after being higher, it suggests the trend is getting

exhausted and is likely to consolidate or reverse

Popular ADX Settings

➢ Standard Settings or Periods: ADX - 14, ADXR - 14, +DI/-DI – 14 (14,14,14)

ADX Works In All Timeframes

ADX Works In All Countries

Use Your Own Favourite Searches

Combine With Your Favourite Set-ups

Create Your Own Search

* Requires ProTrader premium add-on module.

ADX and DMI Basic Trading SignalsBasic Trades:

➢ Buy or go long when the +DI is above the –DI. Other considerations:

1. ADX is rising off a bottom, generally below the +DI and –DI, and between the 10 and

18 line.

2. The +DI is rising and crosses above the –DI

3. For confirmation, ADX rising above 18-20 line is sign of trend strength

4. -DI is losing momentum

➢ Sell or go short when:

1. –DI is above +DI

2. +DI is losing momentum and/or ADX has crossed below the 40-line or higher, and

especially if it crosses below the +DI line.

ADX and DMI Basic Trading Signals➢ Use Caution when:

1. ADX is below the 20-line. The market is said to be ranging (sideways

or choppy). It will be more difficult to make money. Often best to wait

until the ADX is clearly rising off that bottom (10-line to 15-line) and

either approaching the 20-line or wait until it crosses the 20-line for

confirmation.

2. The ADX has peaked, reversed, and is now falling. This frequently

happens when ADX is above the 40-Line or when it crosses through

the upper DI. The trend is losing strength.

3. When ADX is above both +DI and –DI. A reversal back to the mean

may be imminent.

VectorVest

END OF PRESENTATION

If you have a question or comment about the foregoing, or you would like to request a short video on a topic of interest, please send me a brief email at:

[email protected]

Thank-you for attending.

mailto:[email protected]

Let’s share your questions, your trading methods and stock

ideas at our next Forum!

Please send me your comments and ideas at

[email protected]

Thank you for joining us today!

ADJOURN – 12:30 Eastern / 09:30 Pacific

mailto:[email protected]

stan heller jamin heller host -vectorvest canada moderator · 2018. 4. 12. · neither vectorvest...

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