jamin heller, moderator stan heller, presenter · • document shredding • owner of tsx, venture...

Stan Heller, PresenterJamin Heller, Moderator

Questions? Comments.

• Purpose for these monthly Forums: • Further your knowledge of the VectorVest System.

• To share current ideas and strategies for making money and protecting wealth.

• To create opportunities to interact and share ideas with other members of our VectorVest community.

• To promote the meetings and activities of our VectorVest Canada User Groups.

• To provide a forum for VectorVest Investors who do not live near a User Group Community.

Welcome and Purpose of Meeting (5 min.)

The 7-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.)

User Group News

• Meetings This Month (5 min.)

• Energy Sector Spotlight - Michael Wuetherick, industry insider and Red Deer User Group Leader (15min)

• Industry Group Reports

• Banks (Investment) – Marcia Elgie and Emanuel Althuis, Kelowna User Group Members

• Business Services (Misc.) – Sandy Cook, Kelowna User Group Leader

• **Member Presentations** (30 min.)

• Simplify Your Trading Using the 3-EMA and 8-EMA – Petra Hess, Burlington User Group Leader

• Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphs – Mike Simonato, Toronto Member

Trending Stocks Spotlight (30 min.)

• Game Changers - Fundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocks before they went on to achieve monster gains.

ADJOURN – 12:30 ET

Review:

• Home Page and Views - Insights and Strategy – CA and US

• Analysis of the Market Timing Graph

• Market Climate

• This week’s Special Presentation

User Group

Meeting

Notices

For more information including agendas, maps and driving directions, go to:

1. VectorVest Views2. Any Friday3. User Group Section

Member Presentations

• Energy Sector Spotlight - Michael Wuetherick, industry insider and Red Deer

User Group Leader

• Industry Group Reports

• Banks (Investment) – Marcia Eggli and Emanuel Althuis, Kelowna User Group

Members

• Business Services (Misc.) – Sandy Cook, Kelowna User Group Leader

Sector Spotlight– Brent and WTI Markets

July 2014

• Energy prices began to fall

November 2014:

• OPEC “market-capture” policy and a fast rising US$ accelerated price decline

December 2015:

• What will OPEC do about supply quota’s…will it matter?

Sector Spotlight– US Shale Basins Changing the Game!

Major USA Shale Plays

• Technology has led to rapid production growth throughout North America

• Shale players in the US have added 5 mmbbl/d of light crude and 20 bcf/d of natural gas since 2010

• New US Shale output exceeds Canada’s current daily production of 3.8 mmbbl/d and 11 bcf/d

Yr/Yr Mbpd % Change

Permian +250 +7

Bakken -33 -3%

Niobrara +90 +18%

Permian

Bakken

Niobrara

Sector Spotlight– Drilling Deeper, Cheaper and FasterNorth Dakota BakkenTexas - PermianSaskatchewan Bakken

Sector Spotlight– Rig Efficiency vs. Rig Count• Current rig counts are down significantly since July 2014…doesn’t that mean prices will be going up?

• Increased efficiency and optimization has increased the impact of one rig TEN FOLD in only a couple of years

• The “tap” can and will be turned on very quickly as economics dictates in these massive shale plays

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

Sector Spotlight– What are the Crude Futures Suggesting?N

orm

al In

ven

tory

Lev

els

Jan.12, 2014

Backwardation:• Spot prices are higher than

future prices

• Signals a shortage of supply

• Prices increase if storage falls, and falls if storage rises

Contango:• Spot prices are lower than future

prices

• Indication of a supply glut

• Record high storage signals possible price collapse

Dec.2, 2015

Contango currently exceeds the cost of storage so oil is being stuffed anywhere…..literally a licence to print money

Free Source for Crude Futures: http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Crude_Oil_Futures/CL?search=CL*

Sector Spotlight– US and Global Demand ScenarioGlobal petroleum storage is currently over 3 Billion bbls….US inventory hasn’t been this high since 1930

US Crude stocks are SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE HISTORICAL RANGE….what does that tell us about future prices?

Sector Spotlight– Super Contango Approaching?

June 2014 – Oil at $100/bblMarket backwardation started to break-down

Nov 2014– Oil at $80/bblOPEC ramps up supply, Contango sets in

Dec 2015 – Oil at $40/bblContango widening, suggesting prices will go lower if storage fills to limit

Pro’s watch the futures spread when investing…..it will help you stay on the right side of the trade also!

Sector Spotlight – Energy is a Fast Money Market

• Energy is a VERY fast money market and is heavily traded by high-frequency traders

• History shows trading off a 5-day SMA cross-over signal gives you a 75% chance of winning!!

(Based on statistical analysis of closing data from June 1, 2010 through December 2, 2015)

% Winning Trades

Avg. Daily %Gain

% Losing Trades

Avg. Daily %Loss

Short-Term Traders

XEG above SMA(5) 75.5% 0.91% 24.5% -0.15%

XEG below SMA(5) 25.4% 0.15% 74.7% -0.94%

Medium-Term Traders

XEG above SMA(20) 61.6% 0.62% 38.4% -0.82%

XEG below SMA(20) 36.7% -0.27% 63.3% -0.94%

Long-Term Traders

XEG above SMA(40) 56.5% 0.54% 43.5% -0.33%

XEG below SMA(40) 43.1% 0.51% 56.8% -0.776

Sector Spotlight– Stan’s Gold Digger ….modified!! • Use this simple strategy based on Gold Digger and Energy Stocks to create……Energy Digger!

Use RT ASCENDING sort to bring the most beaten up stocks to the top

Only buy stocks you can short when the trend ends…these same stocks will be great short candidates!

• Simple Energy Trading Plan:• BUY WHEN XEG>SMA(5)

• Sell when XEG< SMA(5) or target gain is reached

Sector Spotlight– When to go long?….play the odds!

Stochastics showing bearish divergence …..caution advised!

1

23

Sector Spotlight– Energy Digger Quicktest #1

Entry signal on XEG closing above its SMA(5)

Confirmed by over-sold Stochastics, and rising RT

Sector Spotlight– Where is the safest place to invest?Canadian Industry Group Price Delta: July 1, 2014 – Current BEARISH TREND

• Institutions will “hide-out” in pipelines infrastructure firms as their operating margins are less exposed to crude prices

• Only the highest quality, shale focused, under-leveraged producing companies will retain investor support• If you must own the producers…do your homework and buy high quality, well financed companies with large land

positions in major shale-oil plays

• Avoid Drillers and service as operating margins are compressed to zero….or lower.

Sector Spotlight– The Canadian Energy Sector and You!!

• Energy is the 2nd highest contributor to the Canadian GDP• Real estate services is #1 in 2015

• Estimated 2015 Revenue of $90.5 B

Generates $8.3B in royalties for governments, and pays $4.8 B to debt holders and banks

Capital expenditures of $38.6 B on drilling, completions and infrastructure spending

Operating expenses of $46.3 B mostly on infrastructure fees, maintenance, power, fuel, taxes and labour

Questions?

Vector Vest Canada Forum

Banks

Simple steps to find stocks in the Banks (Investment)

Industry Group:

1. In VectorVest 7 open Viewers.

2. Then open sector viewer.

3. Right click on Bank.

4. Click on view industries in business sector.

5. Right click on Banks (Investment).

6. Click on view stocks in industry group.

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks


Ticker Market P/E Forward Quarterly Yield Payout

Cap P/E Dividend ($) Ratio

RY 104.72 11.06 10.47 0.79 4.36 45.17%

TD 96.02 12.44 10.74 0.51 3.94 49.04%

BNS 70.33 10.94 9.65 0.7 4.81 52.63%

BMO 44.42 10.94 9.74 0.82 4.74 51.90%

CM 37.26 10.49 9.68 1.12 4.78 50.11%

NA 14.31 9.71 8.87 0.52 4.81 45.53%

CWB 1.82 8.64 8.25 0.22 3.92 33.59%

LB 1.4 9.64 8.21 0.56 4.65 44.62%


5 Year % change 2010 to 2015 annualized

Bank name Market VectorVest Dividend

Price Value Yield

Change Change Change

RY 6.52% 1.75% 3.85%

BNS 4.72% -7.66% 3.09%

TD 13.19% 4.67% 0.16%

CM 9.11% 1.18% -2.32%

BMO 7.44% -3.57% -2.92%

Average 8.61% 0.37%

Vector Vest Canada Forum – Industry AnalysisBusiness Services (Misc)

BUSINESS SERVICES (MISC)

1. 47 STOCKS2. 20 LISTED ON THE TSX; 27 ON THE VENTURE3. STOCKS FROM:

• Consulting Services – engineering, architecture, accounting, planning, human resources• Merchant Banking• Software Solutions• Waste Management• Commercial Laundry• Document Shredding• Owner of TSX, Venture and its derivatives markets• Technology for transportation, TV, Radio, agriculture, education, surveying, health care,

payment solutions, digital storage, carbon capture, air testing, • Supply of camps and catering to northern and remote regions

4. ODD BALLS: TES – mineral exploration in ColumbiaWJX – Distribution and Service of parts for mobile equipment - mining, oil and Gas, etc.NEH – acquiring oil and gas properties in Wyoming

Vector Vest Canada Forum – Business Svc (Misc)

Questions?

SIMPLIFY YOUR

TRADING

USING THE

3 EMA and 8

EMA

Using the 3 EMA and 8 EMA on the daily

and weekly charts of your stocks can give

you very simple rules to get in and out. I first

used this only on daily charts but then found

it was very effective on weekly charts when

I began studying my longer term positions.

This was the start of the Burlington

Model Portfolio. I was looking for something

that could be managed with the end of day

program.

The rules are very EASY to follow. You

buy when the 3 EMA crosses over the

8 EMA with air or space and we sell

when the 3 EMA crosses below the 8

EMA with air or space. The 2 just

touching together is not a signal.

We need to

see some

air or

space not

just a

touch.

Waiting for the

air or space

increases the

chances of

trend

developing .

We sell when

the 3 EMA

crosses

below the 8

EMA with

space or air.

This is a very simple effective way to

trade if you follow your rules. You cannot

scan for the 3 EMA / 8 EMA cross in

Vector Vest but you can set up a 4 EMA

over 9 EMA scan that is very close. I have

found that if you set up the graph with

just the EMA’s showing you can go

through lists of stocks very quickly.

If you have any

questions please

E-mail me

[email protected]

Questions?

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto Member

OBJECTIVE:

Mike’s strategy was designed to find great companies, do less trading and spend less time managing his portfolio. To

accomplish this, he cherry picks great stocks and monitors them using the WatchList Viewer and WatchList Graph.

Stock Selection:

Mike suggests cherry picking stocks from your favourite searches. Look for stocks that have the strongest EPS and CI

(Comfort Index), as well as a strong Earnings Growth Rate (GRT). Three searches he likes to cherry pick from are:

1. Prudent (Prudent Folder) 2. Best New Highs/BMB (Bear Mkt Beater Folder) 3. Mike Simonato’s Options Search

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphs

by Mike Simonato, Toronto Member

2-Year Weekly Graph

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphs

by Mike Simonato, Toronto MemberMonitor Your WatchList Weekly1. Check your WatchList Graph and

look for VectorVest’s four warning signs, just as you do on individual stocks. Ensure EPS is still rising and CI above 1.0.

2. If WatchList Viewer, if Average RT is falling and nearing 1.0, consider selling your weakest RT stock. Replace with a stock that has a rising RT that is greater than the WatchList average.

3. If the Average RS is falling and approaching 1.20, consider selling your weakest RS stocks to raise the average. Same for RV, VST and CI.

4. Buy replacement stocks only when market is rising, and buy on the dips.

Questions?

Game ChangersFundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocks

before they went on to achieve monster gains.

Game Changers – Your ability to find and add one or two of these big winners to your portfolio can transform your

investing results. The market ebbs and flows, but giant gains are always possible.

But how do we find these Game Changers before they run out of steam? First, we have to know what one looks

like. What were the fundamentals? What were the technical clues? So we start by studying past big winners.

And we read and re-read the classic little green book, Stocks, Strategies & Common Sense, written by our

Founder, Dr. Bart DiLiddo.



About Game Changers – Excerpts from Stocks Strategies & Common SenseReally good stocks usually don’t look back once they have started moving upward. Witness the hundreds of stocks that have doubled and tripled

over the last few years with nary a downturn. Think about the tremendous advantage you have when you know how to value stocks.

Good portfolio management starts with selecting the right stocks. Just as major league scouts look for the best talent for their teams, investors

should select the best stocks for their portfolios. This may sound like motherhood and apple pie, but the type of stocks you buy will dictate the

manner in which you must manage your portfolio.

Teeny Boppers remind me of teenagers. They are full of energy, vigor and ambition. They have new ideas and different ways of doing things. They

represent the wave of the future, but are untested. They’re risky and many fail to fulfill their promise. But, many succeed. When they do, they

become our new leaders. Iomega was a classic Teeny Bopper. …...which went from a split adjusted $1.69 to $66, up a fantastic 3,800 percent.

(Iomega was the creator in 1994 of the Zip Drive, a removable floppy disk that revolutionized computer file portability). How did I find these

stocks? The same way I find similar stocks today. I was tracking stocks that were hitting new 52-week highs and ranking them according to a

certain system I have. These stocks are screaming for attention. They’re telling us that something significant, good or bad, is happening. We ought

to be able to take advantage of these situations.

Here’s how to find the next Iomega.



About Game Changers – What qualities should we look for?

1. Stocks that are rising week after week, and hitting a new 52-week high.

2. Stocks that are breaking out of a flatline or consolidation with large spikes in weekly volume.

3. Exceptional EPS growth, rising all the way to the right edge of our graph.

4. A company that is its industry leader, and is revolutionizing a major new trend.

5. Its product or service is in big demand.

Where do we find them?

1. WatchList Viewer – Special WatchList Folder – Best New Highs

2. UniSearch – Best New Highs/BMB; Teeny Boppers; Delta Stocks

Game Changers



Other Game Changers - US

1. PCLN - Priceline

2. COST – Costco

3. GMCR – Green Mtn Coffee Roasters

4. ILMN – Illumina

Other Game Changers - CA

1. SJ – Stella-Jones

2. ATD.B – Alimentation Couche-Tard

3. CSU – Constellation Software

4. DOL - Dollarama

You Tell Me – Which stock do you think is our next Game Changer?

Email: [email protected]

The Month Ahead!

Merry Christmas!

Thanks for attending!Comments, Questions, Stock Ideas and What’s Working for You:

E-mail: [email protected]

Next Meeting: January 2nd @ 11:00 AM ET

Views/UserGroups/Canada Online User Group Forum

jamin heller, moderator stan heller, presenter · • document shredding • owner of tsx, venture...

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