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St. Louis Homicides. Shawn Rakers , Renita Reed, Abigail Rusnica , Joseph Schmoele , David Wilhelm. Background Information. St. Louis is rated #4 Deadliest city in 2012 according to PolicyMic with 113 murders. The number of murders has decreased by half over the past 20 years. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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St. Louis Homicides

St. Louis HomicidesShawn Rakers, Renita Reed, Abigail Rusnica, Joseph Schmoele, David WilhelmBackground InformationSt. Louis is rated #4 Deadliest city in 2012 according to PolicyMic with 113 murders.

The number of murders has decreased by half over the past 20 years.

The homicide rate is so high because the city has not grown beyond its restrictive borders.If the safer suburbs were counted in the citys crime statistics, it would be rated much lower.

MethodsWhat outside factors could have effects on the homicide rate?

Weather & SeasonsHome ValuesFood DesertsIncomeVacanciesWeather & SeasonsDo really cold or hot temperatures cause the homicide rate to fluctuate?Generally, homicides increase during summer months.Assumption: during winter more people stay inside.

Home ValuesNegative correlation between home value and homicides.As home values decrease, homicides increaseCorrelation: - .51

Home values of less than $100,000 appear to account for the majority of homicides.

Home valuesFood Deserts What is a food desert?A geographic area where affordable & healthy food is difficult to obtain.

Food deserts and community Healthy Corner Store project Addition of new stores

Healthy Corner Store projectRanks of Total Homicides:Jeff Vanderlou #1Dutchtown #6Walnut Park East #17West End #21 Benton Park West #23Forest Park East #63Shaw #66

New grocery stores downtownAldi by The LoopSave A Lot in Jefferson CommonsFields Foods by Soulard Schnucks Culinaria

Median Household IncomeEconomic divisions between neighborhoods in north St. Louis and south St. Louis.

Economic restraints in neighborhoods with lower levels of household income coincide with homicides in that area.

Median Income vs. HomicidesCorrelation is -0.41

As median incomes decrease, homicides increase for that area.

Concentrated areas in south city around Dutchtown, Gravois Park and Benton Park West have above average incomes and above average homicides.

Highest and lowest Median IncomesTop 5:Lindenwood ParkSt. Louis HillsEllendalePrinceton HeightsClifton Heights

Lowest 5: Columbus Square Near N. Riverfront St. Louis Place Old N. St. Louis Jeff Vanderlou

Vacant HOMES

Correlation

After my research I have found that there is no strong direct correlation between homicides and vacant housing. Thus this is not a good indicator for the prediction of homicides in STL.I did however notice that there are some other unique correlations to the vacant housing and with further investigation could lead to promising results.Used Police reports from 2008-2013 Used St. Louis City data about Vacant homes and black and white population (not updated since 2010they used 2010 census data).

Sources : http://stlouis-mo.gov/ and http://www.slmpd.org/

15Deploy ResourcesHot Spot PolicingNorth Riverfront, Fountain Park, Kingsway West, OFallon, The Ville, Fairground Neighborhood, Baden, Walnut Park East, Penrose, Lewis Place, Mark Twain, Walnut Park West, Wells-Goodfellow, North Point, Patch, Hyde Park, Dutchtown, Marine Villa, Carondelet, Mount Pleasant, Cheltenham, Bevo Mill, Hamilton Heights, Kingsway East, Jeff Vander Lou, West End, Benton Park West, and Ellendale

PredictionAssumptions: No unexpected or unusual events are expected to radically modify the current trend.Hot Spot Policing will not dramatically alter the homicide rate.

Prediction

Total Homicides for 2014: 128ConclusionAfter brainstorming and researching a variety of possible factors that could effect the homicide rate in St. Louis for 2014, we found that though there was much correlation between the chosen topics, there wasnt direct causation.

Using the homicide data from the years 2008-2013, as well as the months of January & February for 2014, we were able to make our prediction.Questions?

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