s&p 500 sectors earnings, revenues, & valuation · stock market briefing: s&p 500...
TRANSCRIPT
Stock Market Briefing:S&P 500 Sectors Earnings,
Revenues, & ValuationYardeni Research, Inc.
May 30, 2018
Dr. Ed Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FiguresS&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth 3S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share 4S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share 5S&P 500 Sectors Earnings Growth 6S&P 500 Sectors Revenues Growth 7S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Indexes 8S&P 500 Sectors Versus 200-Dma 9S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 10S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 11S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 12S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 13S&P 500 Sectors Relative Forward P/Es 14S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales 15S&P 500 Sectors Divisors 16S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 17S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 18S&P 500 Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG 19S&P 500 Sectors PEG Ratio 20S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin 21S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins 22
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH*(yearly percent change)
Actualy/y growthEstimatedy/y growth**
Latest data thru 5/27/2018
* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values.** Industry analysts’ consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Latest (9.7)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth
Page 3 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 3.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10
0
10
20
30
40Q1S&P 500
Operating Earnings Per Share
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
Q1INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-3
0
3
6
9
12
Q1CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
5
10
15
20
Q1
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q1MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15-10-505
10152025
Q1
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q1
REAL ESTATE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q1
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share
Page 4 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 4.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19150
200
250
300
350
Q1S&P 500Revenues Per Share
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
50
70
90
110
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1950
70
90
110
130
150
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q1
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
50
75
100
125
Q1CONSUMER STAPLES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
35
45
55
65
Q1
MATERIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
50
75
100
125
150
175
Q1
ENERGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
6
7
8
9
Q1
REAL ESTATE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
35
40
45
50
55
Q1FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
20
25
30
35
Q1
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
45
75
105
135
165
Q1HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
30
35
40
Q1
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share
Page 5 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
Latest data thru5/27/2018
S&P 500*
Actualy/y growth
Estimatedy/y growth**
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q4
INDUSTRIALS*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Q4
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q4
CONSUMER STAPLES*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
MATERIALS*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4ENERGY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
REAL ESTATE*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
FINANCIALS*
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q4
HEALTH CARE*
* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values.** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
UTILITIES*
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Earnings Growth
Page 6 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 6.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Q1S&P 500
Revenue Growth y/y (9.7)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-25
-10
5
20
35
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(9.9)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(6.4)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(17.8)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
(9.6)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q1
MATERIALS
(10.8)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q1
ENERGY
(20.6)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1REAL ESTATE
(10.2)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10-505
101520253035
Q1
FINANCIALS
(7.0)
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2017.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q1
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(1.4)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1
HEALTH CARE
(7.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
Q1
UTILITIES
(1.6)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Revenues Growth
Page 7 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 7.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600
1200
1800
240030003600
5/29S&P 500*(price indexes)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125
275
425
575725875
5/29INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
350
600
8501100
5/29CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
575
975
13751775
5/29INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
275
375
475
575675
5/29CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
200
300
400
500
5/29MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300
450
600
750
900
5/29
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1940
90
140
190240290
5/29REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
225
375
525675825
5/29
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
115
155
195
235
5/29
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19225
425
625
82510251225
5/29HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
150
200
250
300350
5/29
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Indexes
Page 8 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 8.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/29
S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)
% from 200-dma (1.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
INDUSTRIALS
(0.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(6.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(8.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
5/29
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-8.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
MATERIALS
(-1.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
ENERGY
(5.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
5/29
REAL ESTATE
(-2.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/29
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(-2.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-6.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
5/29
HEALTH CARE
(-1.3)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
5/29
UTILITIES
(-3.7) yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Versus 200-Dma
Page 9 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960
90
120
150
180210
18 19 5/24S&P 500(forward earnings*)
Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913
19
25
31
3743
1819 5/24INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
17
29
4153
18 19 5/24CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
30
45
60
75
1819
5/24INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913
19
25
31
37
18 19 5/24CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
11
16
21
26
1819 5/24MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
28
48
6888
108
18 195/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
79
19 5/2417 18REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
20
32
4456
1819 5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 197
9
11
13
15
17
1819
5/24TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
35
50
65
80
18 19 5/24HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1911
12
13
14
15
161718
1819 5/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings
Page 10 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 10.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
1819 5/24
S&P 500(forward revenues*)
Forward revenues*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19210
260
310
360
410
1819 5/24INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250
325
400
475
550
625
18 19 5/24CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125
175
225
275
325
1819 5/24INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200
275
350
425
500
1819
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19160
180
200
220
240
18 195/24
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19275
375
475
575
675
775
18 195/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
25
30
35
40
45
5/2418
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120
160
200
240
280
18
19 5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1995
105
115
125
135
18
19 5/24
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
275
375
475
575675
18 19 5/24HEALTH CARE
*Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120
135
150
165
180
18 19
5/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues
Page 11 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 11.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
17 18 195/24S&P 500
(profit margin, percent)
AnnualForward* (12.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
1718 19 5/24
INDUSTRIALS
(10.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
11
1718 19 5/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(8.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
15
20
25
17 18 195/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(22.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
17 18 19
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(7.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194
6
8
10
12
14
1718
19 5/24
MATERIALS
(11.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
3
6
9
12
15
17 18 195/24
ENERGY
(7.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
9
12
15
18
21
24
5/2417 18 19
REAL ESTATE
(16.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194
8
12
16
20
24
18 19 5/2417
FINANCIALS
(18.7)
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
14
1718 19
5/24TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(13.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 199.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
17 18 19
5/24
HEALTH CARE
(10.5)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
9
10
11
12
13
17
18
195/24UTILITIES
(12.3)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin
Page 12 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 12.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/24
S&P 500(forward P/E) P/E (16.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
11
14
17
20
23
5/24
INDUSTRIALS(16.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
15
20
25
30
5/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(19.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
12
16
20
24
5/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(18.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
12
14
16
18
20
22
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES(16.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
10
15
20
25
5/24
MATERIALS(16.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
15
25
35
45
55
65
5/24
ENERGY(19.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
25
35
45
55
65
75
5/24
REAL ESTATE(37.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(12.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
5/24
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(10.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/24
HEALTH CARE
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
(15.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/24
yardeni.com
UTILITIES(15.7)
S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es
Page 13 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 13.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/24
S&P 500 P/E(forward P/E)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/24
(relative forward P/Es by sector*)
(1.00)
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
5/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.19)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/24(1.11)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/24
(1.00)
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/24
(0.98)
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/24
(1.15)
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
2
3
4
5
6
5/24
(2.24)
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/24
(0.78)
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/24(0.61)
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/24
(0.91)
HEALTH CARE
* Sector’s forward P/E divided by S&P 500 forward P/E. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/24
yardeni.com(0.95)
UTILITIES
S&P 500 Sectors Relative Forward P/Es
Page 14 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 14.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
5/24
S&P 500(forward P/S ratio)
P/S (2.02)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/24INDUSTRIALS
(1.69)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4
.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
5/24CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.62)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.55/24INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(4.18)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES(1.27)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/24
MATERIALS(1.85)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/24
ENERGY(1.33)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5/24
REAL ESTATE(5.97)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(2.42)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/24
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(1.36)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/24
HEALTH CARE
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
(1.59)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/24
yardeni.com
UTILITIES(1.94)
S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales
Page 15 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 15.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208250
8500
8750
9000
9250
9500
5/25
S&P 500
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
5/25
INDUSTRIALS
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
4000
5000
6000
7000
5/25
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204000
4500
5000
5500
6000
5/25
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5/25
CONSUMER STAPLES
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
5/25
MATERIALS
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
5/25
ENERGY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20100
600
1100
1600
2100
2600
3100
36005/25REAL ESTATE
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
5/25
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
5/25
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
3250
3500
3750
4000
4250
4500
5/25
HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201800
2000
2200
2400
26005/25UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Divisors
Page 16 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 16.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
60
90
120
150
1805/24S&P 500
(per share*)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
15
25
35
45
5/24INDUSTRIALS
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
15
25
35
455/24CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
15
30
45
60
755/24INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
10
15
20
25
30
35
5/24CONSUMER STAPLES
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
10
15
20
255/24MATERIALS
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
5/24
ENERGY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2110
15
20
25
30
35
405/24REAL ESTATE
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
10
20
30
40
50
5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 214
6
8
10
12
14
16
5/24TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
20
35
50
65
80
5/24HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 218
10
12
14
16
18
5/24UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings
Page 17 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 17.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
-30
-10
10
30
May
S&P 500
Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (9.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
May
INDUSTRIALS
(12.1)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(8.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(16.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
May
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-2.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
May
MATERIALS
(15.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May
ENERGY
(12.1)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
May
REAL ESTATE
(-7.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016(10.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
May
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-8.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
May
HEALTH CARE
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
(10.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
May
UTILITIES
(2.8)
S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index
Page 18 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 18.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
5/24
S&P 500(percent) STRG* (6.2)
STEG* (15.5)LTEG* (15.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5/24
INDUSTRIALS
(5.9)(15.9)(15.3)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-15
0
15
30
45
60
5/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(6.9)(15.8)(18.1)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(8.8)(13.8)(15.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES(3.9)(9.5)(9.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
5/24
MATERIALS (6.5)(17.4)(12.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
5/24
ENERGYSTEG capped at 200%
(10.9)(47.1)(43.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/24
REAL ESTATE
(8.0)(-6.1)(14.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
5/24
FINANCIALS
STEG capped at 40%
Includes Real Estate through September 2016
(4.3)(20.5)(14.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5/24
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(0.9)(8.5)(5.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
5/24
HEALTH CARE
(5.5)(11.0)(11.2)
* STRG & STEG: 12-month forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
5/24
UTILITIES (1.5)(5.5)(6.3)
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG
Page 19 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 19.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/24
S&P 500(PEG ratio*)
(1.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/24
INDUSTRIALS
(1.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(1.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(1.8)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/24
MATERIALS(1.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/24
ENERGY
(0.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
11
13
5/24
REAL ESTATE
(2.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/24
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(0.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19012345678
5/24
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(2.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/24
HEALTH CARE
(1.3)
* Sector’s forward P/E divided by sector’s consensus projected 5-year earnings growth rate. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
5/24
UTILITIES
(2.5)
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors PEG Ratio
Page 20 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 20.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
S&P 500Operating Profit Margin*(trailing 4-quarter, %)
S&P 500 (10.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(9.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
S&P 500 Sectors OperatingProfit Margins
(7.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
5
10
15
20
25
Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(21.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
(6.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1MATERIALS
(9.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Q1
ENERGY
(4.4)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1
REAL ESTATE
(18.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
(14.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(10.3)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1
HEALTH CARE
(8.9)
* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor’s.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
UTILITIES
(11.6)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin
Page 21 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 21.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
14
5/23
Q1
S&P 500
Operating Profit Margin*Actual 4Q TrailingImplied Forward
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 206
7
8
9
10
11
Q1
5/23INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
3
5
7
9
Q15/23CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
S&P 500 SectorsForecasted & Actual Profit Margins
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
Q15/23INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q1
5/23CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q15/23
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Q15/23
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
5/23Q1
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
Q1
5/23FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1
5/23TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
8
9
10
11
12
Q1
5/23
HEALTH CARE
* Actual from S&P based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation (trailing 4-quarter margin) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (forward margin).
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
9
10
11
12
13
Q1
5/23
yardeni.com
UTILITIES
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
Page 22 / May 30, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
http://blog.yardeni.com
http://blog.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.