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The Wanneroo labour market

The Wanneroo labour marketRisks and challenges

Ivan NevilleBranch Manager

Labour Market Research and Analysis

Wanneroo resident profile

Wanneroo resident profile

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016; ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2012, 2017; Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018; ABS Labour Force, October 2018 (Seasonally adjusted data*, 12 month averages of original data**)

Wanneroo LGA WA

Adult population growth (2012 to 2017)

19.0% 5.8%

Unemployment rate 8.5%(June Quarter 2018)

5.7%*(October 2018)

Youth unemployment rate 17.4% 14.6%**

Educational attainment

(25-34 year olds)

Certificate III & IV 28% 25%

Bachelor Degree or Higher 25% 34%

Proportion born overseas 41% 32%

7th

fastest growing LGA in WA

+24,500

Wanneroo LGA WA

Adult population growth

(2012 to 2017)

19.0% (7th fastest growing LGA in WA)

5.8%

Unemployment rate 8.5%

(June Quarter 2018)

5.7%*

(October 2018)

Youth unemployment rate 17.4% 14.6%**

Certificate III & IV (25-34 year olds) 28% 25%

Bachelor Degree or Higher (25-34 year olds) 25% 34%

Proportion born overseas 41% 32%

Recent employment growth in Perth

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Sep-

2012

Dec-

2012

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep-

2013

Dec-

2013

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep-

2014

Dec-

2014

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep-

2015

Dec-

2015

Mar

-201

6

Jun-

2016

Sep-

2016

Dec-

2016

Mar

-201

7

Jun-

2017

Sep-

2017

Dec-

2017

Mar

-201

8

Jun-

2018

Sep-

2018

Recent employment growth in Perth

Source: ABS Labour Force, September 2018 (12 month averages of original data)

Employment increase over past year:

Perth: +2.0%Australia: +2.5%

Employment increase over the past year:

Perth: +2.0%.

Australia: +2.5%.

Mining employment in WA has increased, but still below peak

Mining employment in WA has increased, but still below peak

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Aug-

2011

Dec-

2011

Apr-

2012

Aug-

2012

Dec-

2012

Apr-

2013

Aug-

2013

Dec-

2013

Apr-

2014

Aug-

2014

Dec-

2014

Apr-

2015

Aug-

2015

Dec-

2015

Apr-

2016

Aug-

2016

Dec-

2016

Apr-

2017

Aug-

2017

Dec-

2017

Apr-

2018

Aug-

2018

Empl

oym

ent (

'000

)

Mining employment

increased by 6700 over the past year

Still 19,400 below the Feb

2013 peak

Source: ABS Labour Force, August Quarter 2018 (4 quarter averages of original data); Government of Western Australia Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety

Mineral exploration expenditure in 2017-18 is up 16% on the previous year

Mining employment increased by 6700 over the past year, but is still 19400 below the February 2013

peak.

Mineral exploration expenditure in 2017-18 is up 16% on the previous year.

Number of online vacancies has been increasing… but is still well below the peak from 2012

Number of online vacancies has been increasing……but it is still well below the peak from 2012

Internet Vacancy Index, Perth

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Internet Vacancy Index regional data September 2018

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Occupations with the most online ads:1. Automotive & Engineering Trades Workers (1029)2. General-Inquiry Clerks, Call Centre Workers, &

Receptionists (893)3. Business, Finance & Human Resource Professionals (772)4. Sales Assistants & Salespersons (640)5. ICT Professionals (626)

Internet vacancy index has increased by 23% since September 2016.

Occupations with the most online ads:

1. Automotive and Engineering Trade Workers (1029).

2. General-Inquiry Clerks, Call Centre Workers, & Receptionists (893).

3. Business, Finance and Human Resource Professionals (772).

4. Sales Assistants and Salespersons (640).

5. ICT Professionals (626).

The unemployment rate remains high

4.4%

8.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Dec-

10M

ar-1

1Ju

n-11

Sep-

11De

c-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Dec-

12M

ar-1

3Ju

n-13

Sep-

13De

c-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14Se

p-14

Dec-

14M

ar-1

5Ju

n-15

Sep-

15De

c-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16Se

p-16

Dec-

16M

ar-1

7Ju

n-17

Sep-

17De

c-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

The unemployment rate remains highWanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018;ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

Census 2016From 2011 to 2016:42,200 moved into the area:• 29,100 Employed• 2,900 Unemployed• 10,200 not in Labour Force

9.2% UE rate

Unemployment rate was at 8.5% in June 2018.

From 2011 to 2016, 42200 move into the area. Of these:

29100 were employed.

2900 were unemployed.

10200 were not in the labour force.

Employment hasn’t kept up with population growth

Employment hasn’t kept up with population growthEmployment to population ratio, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018;ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2017; ABS Labour Force, August Quarter 2018 (4 quarter averages of original data);

Note: Employment to population ratio figures for Wanneroo are estimates derived from Small Area labour market data

Some areas are worse than others

Some areas are worse than othersUnemployment rates by SA2, June Quarter 2018

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018

Bottom 2% of SA2s in Australia

*Defined under the 2011 ASGS

Unemployment rates by SA2, June Quarter 2018:

Girrawheen: 20.1% (bottom 2 per cent of SA2s in Australia).

Alexander Heights – Koondoola: 13.4%.

Butler – Merriwa – Ridgewood: 12.8%.

Clarkson: 11.9%.

Marangaroo: 10.9%.

Yanchep: 9.7%.

Carramar: 6.9%.

Wanneroo: 6.5%.

Mindarie – Quinns Rocks – Jindalee: 5.1%.

Madeley – Darch – Landsdale: 4.4%.

Tapping – Ashby – Sinagra: 3.1%.

Youth unemployment is a problem in many areas

Youth unemployment is a problem in many areas

Unemployment rates by SA2, 15-24 year olds, 2016

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

8th highest youth unemployment

rate in WA (out of 200+ SA2s)

Unemployment rates by SA2, 15-24 year olds, 2016:

Girrawheen: 24.0% (8th highest youth unemployment of Western Australia SA2s).

Butler – Merriwa – Ridgewood: 19.8%.

Alexander Heights – Koondoola: 19.8%.

Clarkson: 19.6%.

Marangaroo: 19.1%.

Yanchep: 18.2%.

Mindarie – Quinns Rocks – Jindalee: 17.8%.

Two Rocks: 17.5%

Carramar: 16.7%.

Wanneroo: 15.8%.

Madeley – Darch – Landsdale: 15.5%.

Tapping – Ashby – Sinagra: 14.2%.

Alkimos – Eglington: 11.4%.

Who is getting left behind?

Who is getting left behind?jobactive caseload, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October, 2013 and 2018

Total caseload: 7,000 +2,500

+1,000

Change since 2013:Wanneroo: +56%Australia: -17%

Since 2013, there has been an increase in the total caseload of 56 per cent, compared to a decrease

of 17 per cent for Australia.

There has been an increase of 2500 of persons on benefits for more than one year, and an increase

of 1000 persons aged over 50 on the caseload.

Long term unemployed increasingly marginalised

2454

883 885

293

2480

1487

2067

967

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 to 11 months 12 to 23 months 24 to 59 months 60+ months

2013 2018

Time on unemployment benefits

Long term unemployed increasingly marginalisedjobactive caseload, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October, 2013 and 2018

+1200 - largest increase of any

region in WA

The long term unemployed are increasingly marginalised.

There has been an increase of 1200 persons that have been on unemployment benefits for between

24 and 59 months – the largest increase of any region in Western Australia.

Many very long term unemployed have no post-school education

Many VLTU have no post-school educationJob seekers on benefits for 24 months or more, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October 2018

Percentage of very long term unemployed with no post-school education:

Alexander Heights - Koondooola: 77%.

Girrawheen: 77%.

Marangaroo: 74%.

Wanneroo (SA2): 70%.

Wanneroo (LGA): 67%.

Western Australia: 64%.

Australia: 63%.

Migrants are often underutilised

Migrants are often underutilisedPersons with a Bachelor degree or higher, Wanneroo LGA

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2016

*For this analysis, ‘lower skilled occupation’ is defined as Labourers, Machinery Operators and Drivers, and Sales Workers.

*

Employed in a lower

skilled occupation

Unemployed Not in the Labour

Force

Male – Main English

Speaking Country

8% 4% 10%

Male – Culturally and

Linguistically Diverse

17% 6% 11%

Female – Main English

Speaking Country

4% 3% 16%

Female – Culturally and

Linguistically Diverse

11% 7% 23%

What of the future?

What of the future?

The job market will continue to change

Education requirements

Geographical location of demand

Value of personal attributes /

employability skills

Impact onlabour needs

The jobs market will continue to change

Mismatches between the demand and supply of labour can constrain growth and displace workers

Factors driving change:

Technological change / automation

Global forces

Government interventions

Demographic changes

Factors driving change in the jobs market include: technological change and automation, global

forces, government interventions, demographic changes.

The impact on labour needs include: education requirements, value of personal attributes and

employability skills, and geographical location of demand.

Mismatches between the demand and supply of labour can constrain growth and displace workers.

Population projected to more than double

Source: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2016; Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id, October 2017

Population projected to more than doubleTotal population, Wanneroo LGA

122,100 jobs needed by 2041 to improve employment-to-population ratio to 2013 levels

Population projected to more than double, from 194,779 in 2016 to 412,996 in 2041.

122,100 additional jobs needed by 2041 to improve employment-to-population ratio to 2013 levels.

There is a shift to the services sector

There is a shift to the services sector…Change 2011 to 2016, Wanneroo LGA

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016 (Place of Work)

Employability skills are vital in services:• People skills• Enthusiasm• Personal presentation• Customer service-710

-220

310

330

390

890

950

1,000

1,120

1,200

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Administrative and Support Services

Other Services

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Construction

Education and Training

Note: Raw numbers may be underestimates due to a high number of ‘Not Stated’ responses in the 2016 Census

Change in employment level by industry, 2011 to 2016, Wanneroo LGA:

Education and training: 1200.

Construction: 1120.

Accommodation and food services: 1000.

Health care and social assistance: 950.

Retail trade: 890.

Other services: 390.

Administrative and support services: 330.

Professional, scientific and technical services: 310.

Wholesale trade: -220.

Manufacturing: -710.

Employability skills are vital in services, such as: people skills, enthusiasm, personal presentation,

customer service.

Slide 18 and a long-term shift towards higher skilled jobs

…and a long-term shift towards higher skilled jobs…

Western Australia, share of employment

Source: ABS Labour Force detailed quarterly release, August 2018, 4 quarter averages of original data

Jobs requiring a Bachelor Degree now account for nearly a third of

employment

Jobs requiring a bachelor degree now account for nearly a third of employment.

The proportion of persons employed in skill level 1 and 2 has increased over time.

The proportion of persons employed in skill levels 3, 4 and 5 has decreased over time.

but growth in skilled jobs in Wanneroo is slow

…but growth in skilled jobs in Wanneroo is slow2011 to 2016 Census

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016 (Place of Work)

+12,200 (+38%)Jobs in Wanneroo

+625,500 (+6%)Jobs across Australia

High skilled jobs* account

for 22% of this growth

High skilled jobs* account

for 49% of this growth

*Jobs requiring a Bachelor Degree or Higher (Skill Level 1)

Increase of 12200 jobs in Wanneroo (+38%) between 2011 and 2016, compared to 625500 for

Australia (+6%).

Higher skilled jobs made up 22 per cent of the increase in employment in Wanneroo, compared to

49 per cent Australia-wide.

Education levels are improving

28%

1%

22%

11%

38%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

No non-schoolqualification

Certificate I & II

Certificate III & IV

Advanced Diploma andDiploma

Bachelor Degree orHigher

Australia

34%

2%

28%

11%

25%

41%

2%

26%

10%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

No non-schoolqualification

Certificate I & II

Certificate III & IV

Advanced Diploma andDiploma

Bachelor Degree orHigher

2011 2016

Education levels are improving…Wanneroo LGA, 25-34 year olds

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016

…but there is still a way to go

Wanneroo (2011) Wanneroo (2016) Australia (2016)

Bachelor Degree or

Higher

21% 25% 38%

Advanced Diploma

and Diploma

10% 11% 11%

Certificate III & IV 26% 28% 22%

Certificate I & II 2% 2% 1%

No non-school

qualification

41% 34% 28%

Many new higher skilled jobs being given to people outside the region

Many new higher skilled jobs being given to people outside the region

Wanneroo LGA, 2011-2016

3,000 new higher skilled jobs* since 2011

+150 +830 +1,370 +650

Age groups

Where do they live?

+1,690 +450 +260 +160 +440

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 and 2016

*For this analysis, ‘higher skilled jobs’ refers to Manager and Professional jobs

Only 1690 of the 3000 new higher skilled positions since 2011 were taken up by persons living in

Wanneroo. The rest live in:

Joondalup (450).

Stirling (260).

Swan (160).

Elsewhere in Western Australia (440).

Employers increasingly seeking these transferable skills

Since 2012, job ads requiring this have increased by over 200%

Employers increasingly seeking these transferable skills

Source: Foundation for Young Australians, The New Basics, April 2016

Creativity

Problem solving

Financial literacyCritical thinking

Presentation of information

Digital literacy

Employers are increasingly seeking these transferable jobs:

Digital literacy.

Problem solving.

Critical thinking.

Creativity.

Presentation of information.

Financial literacy.

Job ads requiring digital literacy have increased by over 200%.

Concluding thoughts

Concluding thoughts

• Labour market conditions are still challenging, with some areas and groups struggling in particular

• Young people struggling to get a foothold in the labour market

• Can more be done to help people before they become long-term unemployed?

• Higher skilled jobs are growing, but at a lower rate than the national average

• Many of these jobs are going to people outside the area

• Education levels have improved, but still below the state average

• Can qualified migrants be better utilised?

Further information

Further Information

– www.jobs.gov.au/recruitment-conditions

– http://lmip.gov.au/

– www.jobs.gov.au/skillshortages

– https://www.jobs.gov.au/australian-jobs-publication

– www.joboutlook.gov.au

– http://whatsnext.jobs.gov.au

Further information:

Recruitment Conditions: www.jobs.gov.au/recruitment-conditions

Labour Market Information Portal: http://lmip.gov.au/.

Skill Shortages: www.jobs.gov.au/skillshortages.

Australian Jobs: https://www.jobs.gov.au/australian-jobs-publication.

Job Outlook: www.joboutlook.gov.au.

What’s Next website: http://whatsnext.jobs.gov.au.

http://whatsnext.jobs.gov.au/

http://www.joboutlook.gov.au/

https://www.jobs.gov.au/australian-jobs-publication

http://www.jobs.gov.au/skillshortages

http://lmip.gov.au/

http://www.jobs.gov.au/recruitment-conditions

Contact information

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Recruitment and Employer Needs Analysis Section [email protected]

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Recruitment and Employer

Needs Analysis Section at [email protected].

mailto:[email protected]

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