situation report - everbridge

Situation Report

Security Concerns Grow as COVID-19 Pandemic Continues Global Expansion

Authors: Stephanie Kiefer, Senior Regional Analyst – Europe, the Caucasus, & Central Asia Samson Sampson, Senior Regional Analyst – Middle East & North Africa Kimberly Doyle, Senior Regional Analyst – Sub-Saharan Africa Zachary Nelson, Senior Regional Analyst – Latin America & Caribbean Josh Strongin, Lead Intelligence Analyst – North America Zachary Huffman, Senior Lead Intelligence Analyst

Contact: [email protected]

Overview

The global number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has exceeded 2.5 million people and more than 176,000 associated deaths have been reported, according to Johns Hopkins University. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned again on April 21 that quickly rolling back COVID-19 restrictions would likely bring about a resurgence of the virus, encouraging countries to work toward adapting to a new normal “for the foreseeable future.” The cautionary words followed on the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus saying a day prior that “the worst” remains ahead in the pandemic.

Amidst the spread of the virus and lockdowns around the world, security concerns continue to build, including in developing countries and/or areas more vulnerable to unrest. On April 21, the United Nations World Food Programme called for “swift action” to mitigate COVID-19 impacts, warning that the number of people globally who are experiencing acute hunger could exceed 265 million, nearly a doubling of that figure as a result of the pandemic’s economic disruption. Lockdowns can cause extreme hardship for people dependent upon a day’s labor to have food and/or shelter. While the pandemic continues to build in many countries, pre-existing socioeconomic divisions at the local, national, and international level may be exacerbated both during the main outbreak period and through at least months of recovery.

Worldwide April 21, 2020

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Spread of COVID-19: Europe

Several countries in Europe continue to see stabilization or declining levels of their outbreaks, though Europe remains the epicenter of the pandemic. Continued progress by hard-hit countries such as Spain and France has been welcomed as populations in long lockdowns voice growing calls for the easing of restrictions. Similar to last week, countries such as the United Kingdom and Russia remain areas of concern. European Union officials set out the “Joint European Roadmap towards lifting COVID-19 containment measures”, a nonbinding document providing guidance and best practices to member countries, though each country is maintaining an individual approach to evolving lockdowns and the path forward.

• Europol continues to warn of increased criminal activity linked to the pandemic, including counterfeit products, other forms of fraud, and cybercrime such as exploiting vulnerabilities from increased numbers of people working remotely.

Cumulative COVID-19 Cases per 100,000, as of Tuesday, April 21

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

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https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication_-_a_european_roadmap_to_lifting_coronavirus_containment_measures_0.pdf

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication_-_a_european_roadmap_to_lifting_coronavirus_containment_measures_0.pdf


• Police in England and Wales last week reported a 59 percent climb in anti-social behavior incidents compared to the same period in 2019, with the rise attributed to lockdown violations. Police said that allegations of burglary and rape had dropped by 37 percent, with overall crime reports down 28 percent.

• In France, bouts of unrest have been reported in recent days in suburbs, or banlieues, of Paris and Strasbourg. The incidents, though isolated, are reported to have stemmed from an incident involving allegations of deliberate harm by a police officer and subsequent circulation of inaccurate rumors. Though not necessarily linked to COVID-19, tensions persist over sustained allegations of police heavy-handedness in enforcing lockdown restrictions in lower-income suburbs that tend to have higher population densities and minority groups.

• Some 2,000 people protested lockdown measures and clashed with riot police forcefully dispersing the crowd in Vladikavkaz, southern Russia, on April 20. Protesters expressed concerns over the economic hit from restrictions.

• The pandemic and associated restrictions continue to pose challenges to military readiness, as highlighted by a recent outbreak on a French aircraft carrier and the UK’s Ministry of Defence reporting that about one in ten military service personnel were absent from frontline responsibilities due to coronavirus-related circumstances.

Distribution of New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Day in Europe

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

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• Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, warned that the European Union’s tourism economy could drop by 45 to 70 percent in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, and that the tourism sector would likely be amid the last to bounce back.

• While crime has fallen in multiple areas, many countries have reported a rise in domestic violence during lockdowns. In the first month of lockdown, Spain reported a 25 percent rise in gender violence interventions compared to the same time last year.

• Over the weekend, Vaclav Havel Airport Prague (PRG) said it had repelled cyberattacks on airport web pages, while several other hospitals around the country in recent days said they had also thwarted cyberattacks by malware intended to destroy or damage targeted computers.

• In response to supply chain challenges for pharmaceutical drugs, including those used for intensive care patients, the EU’s health commissioner plans to push for reducing the bloc’s reliance on imports of such drugs from China and India.

• The UK’s National Farmers’ Union has warned that about a quarter of the country’s dairy farms are no longer financially viable as a result of a plunge in demand and corresponding price drops.

Updates Around the Region

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said this week that the government is finalizing its plan to

progressively reopen the economy from May 4, with details of a structured-step plan expected to be

publicized later this week. An outline of the government’s five-point plan to manage the epidemic in Italy

was being presented Tuesday evening. Conte has emphasized that the easing of measures must be gradual

in order to maintain a lower risk of the virus spreading quickly again and to reduce the burden that the

country’s health system has been experiencing. Italy has a declining outbreak curve, with April 21 having

the first major drop in excess of 500 for total active cases in the country in a one-day period, in addition to

a declining number of patients in intensive care.

Spain’s infection rate has been declining and the country has started slowly easing restrictions. Nonetheless, a study from the Spanish College of Nursing recently reported that it had found in preliminary results that almost a third of nurses in the country (about 70,000 people) may have contracted COVID-19. In neighboring Portugal, the prime minister recently indicated that the government is aiming to start steps next month to reopen gradually, with the potential for a more detailed plan to be announced on April 30, ahead of the May 2 expiration of the current lockdown.

On April 21, French health authorities announced that the country has had 13 consecutive days of

declining ICU admissions for COVID-19. From May 12, French students will have a staggered return to

school, along with smaller class sizes. Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has stressed that following the

expiration of the current lockdown measures on May 11, the country’s anticipated easing of restrictions

would be incremental and slow, with the virus remaining a threat in the months ahead.

As Germany begins limited steps easing restrictions, Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that withdrawing restrictions should not be too swift due to the risk of the outbreak regaining momentum. Restrictions may vary by state, though multiple states, including Berlin, have announced requirements for face masks to be worn on public transport. Wary of the risk posed by a major event that draws visitors from around the world, Bavarian authorities announced that Oktoberfest will not be held this year.

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In Austria, among the first countries in Europe to take reopening steps, restaurants and cafes are being allowed to reopen from May 15. Denmark has also been among the first European countries easing restrictions, though the Danish prime minister announced this week that gatherings of more than 500 people would be prohibited until at least the start of September. Greece plans to gradually ease nationwide restrictions from April 27, with the prime minister expected to present the country’s transition plan next week.

While the United Kingdom has seen indications of stabilization, the country remains under lockdown as officials look for the rate of spreading to be sustained at a low level and a decline forming in the outbreak curve. London’s mayor has voiced support for a face mask requirement for people using public transport, though the national government has held back from issuing such requirements amid broader concerns of PPE shortages for healthcare workers.

Distribution of Total Cases by Region in Italy

Source: Italian Civil Protection Agency

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As Irish officials recently described the spread of COVID-19 in the country as stabilized, the prospect has been raised of some potential easing of restrictions. Nonetheless, authorities announced on April 21 that gatherings of more than 5,000 people would remain banned through August. Current national lockdown restrictions are set to expire on May 5, with officials expected to announce updated measures nearer to that date.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that the country would begin reopening schools from May 11, though most businesses are expected to remain under current lockdown measures at least to May 20. Furthermore, large events have been prohibited until the start of September. The Belgian government intends to release a plan on April 24 for a gradual lifting of nationwide restrictions, though authorities have emphasized that a resurgence of the virus would prompt the reintroduction of tighter measures.

Spread of COVID-19: Asia/Pacific

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Asia/Pacific region have risen to more than 165,000 and the number of deaths has topped 7,000. There are concerns about the capacity of the medical systems in Japan and Singapore to handle the rising numbers of cases in those countries. India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia continue to see sharp upticks in cases, with reporting further hampered by a lack of testing. New Zealand is preparing to lower some lockdown restrictions beginning next week.

Japan

• The number of cases of COVID-19 in Japan continues to increase. Around one-third of total cases are in the Tokyo region. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has continued to appeal for residents to remain at home, expressing fears that social-distancing guidelines are not being properly followed, particularly in Tokyo and Osaka.

• As new cases continue to emerge, there are concerns that the health system may not be able to cope. Hospitals in the capital region are already overwhelmed with cases and the government is worried about the medical capacity in rural areas, where there tend to be higher concentrations of elderly people. Testing for the virus has been expanded to general practitioners’ offices in order to ease the strain on hospitals.

Daily COVID-19 UK Deaths in Hospital

Source: UK Government

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China

• The death toll from the virus in Wuhan, the city from which it originated, rose sharply late last week as the government officially added 1,290 deaths to the list, leading to a citywide total of 3,869. Officials attributed the spike to delayed or initially incorrect death information relayed by medical personnel during the height of the city’s outbreak, and the new numbers do not change the current health situation in the city.

• New imported cases continue to emerge, especially in Heilongjiang Province, which borders Russia. At least 28 new cases were detected on April 21 in the province of Shaanxi, all of which were Chinese travelers bound for Beijing after returning from Moscow. A handful of new locally transmitted cases were also discovered in Beijing on April 17, the first in nearly a month.

o Jilin Province, which borders Heilongjiang, along with the city of Shenyang in nearby Liaoning Province, are instituting a mandatory quarantine and COVID-19 testing for travelers who have recently been in the cities of Harbin or Mudanjiang in Heilongjiang.

• The overall situation in the country appears to be stabilized, with the exception of the aforementioned northeastern provinces where authorities continue to take measures to stop additional spread of the virus.

Singapore

• Confirmed cases in Singapore continue to reach record daily highs, with over 1,400 new cases reported on April 20.

o Around 75 percent of the city-state’s confirmed cases are among its large population of migrant workers living in dormitories. Such workers are now being confined to their residences until at least May 4.

• The health system is coming under increasing strain, particularly public hospitals. Private hospitals have begun to take more patients with milder symptoms of the virus, allowing public facilities to focus on more serious cases.

o Thousands of retired medical personnel are assisting with response efforts.

India

• The number of confirmed cases continues to rise, and the country experienced its largest single-day increase on April 20, with 1,553 new cases reported. Some models predict that the outbreak in India may not peak until June. The state of Maharashtra has around one-fourth of the confirmed cases in India and around one-third of the total deaths.

o The rate of spread of the virus has slowed in some states.

Indonesia

• April 17 saw the country’s highest number of new cases thus far, with 407 confirmed. Indonesia stands at over 7,000 confirmed cases currently, with government officials now forecasting that the outbreak’s peak in Indonesia will come in May or early June with approximately 95,000 cases.

• The number of tests conducted in Indonesia has risen to more than 40,000, which is over four times the number that had been carried out at the beginning of April. The amount of testing being done is still considered insufficient and is much lower than most other countries in Southeast Asia. The government intends to ramp up testing to more than 10,000 per day, which will likely lead to even higher numbers of confirmed infections.

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• Judging from currently available statistics, Indonesia has had one of the highest fatality rates for the virus of any country, at over eight percent.

• Lockdown restrictions in Jakarta have been expanded to Bekasi, Bogor, Depok, and other nearby cities. Around two-thirds of confirmed cases have occurred in the Jakarta region. The city of Pekanbaru in Riau has also implemented restrictive measures and is the first city outside the island of Java to do so.

o The government has also placed some restrictions on upcoming Ramadan-related travel, when millions of people traditionally journey back to their hometowns.

Bangladesh

• The country’s confirmed cases more than doubled since April 16, with at least 3,382 now reported along with 110 deaths.

• There have been instances of largescale social distancing violations, with protests by sometimes thousands of garment workers continuing in Dhaka and Chittagong, and as many as 100,000 people attending the funeral of an Islamic official in Brahmanbaria east of the capital on April 18, which could contribute to a continuing deterioration of the overall virus situation.

Supply Chain Impacts

• Airline Virgin Australia entered administration on April 21 and will seek buyers and new investment after failing to receive additional loans from the Australian government.

• Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has stated that some export-focused industries could begin to reopen soon depending on the ability of specific companies to implement and have employees comply with health and quarantine measures.

• The Chinese government is negotiating expedited entry procedures with some countries, including Singapore and South Korea, which will allow certain business travelers to bypass some of the more onerous COVID-19 regulations upon coming into the country, while still maintaining controls to prevent the spread of the virus. Details on such plans have not been immediately released.

• China’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) fell by about 6.8 percent due to impacts from the virus, the first GDP contraction the country has experienced since data began to be released in 1992.

• The virus has caused delays and other disruptions to multiple projects that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative—a heavy infrastructure development project spread across multiple countries. Delays have been reported to various projects in countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

• The government of Hong Kong announced that beginning on April 22, all passengers arriving in

Hong Kong must wait for COVID-19 test results at the airport or at a designated hotel if results are

not going to be available until the next day. Tests will be carried out even on travelers not

exhibiting symptoms.

• India relaxed its lockdown procedures in areas that have been less affected by the virus, allowing some workers to travel to agricultural jobs, and enabling banking, public works, and some other services to resume.

• Sales of refined fuel in India have declined by about 50 percent from this time last year.

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• The virus outbreak and its resulting lockdowns in India have led some companies to attempt to move call center and data center operations out of the country and have prompted others to have employees quarantine at their work sites.

• The Japanese government is distributing about US $930 to each resident as part of an economic stimulus package, with additional payments to households that have lost income due to the outbreak.

• Myanmar will allow some factories to reopen beginning on April 30 if they have instituted certain health precautions, including taking employee temperatures when they arrive at work, and supplying enough cleaning and sanitizing materials.

• New Zealand will begin to lift some of its lockdown measures beginning at 11:59 PM local time on April 27.

• Lockdown measures may be eased beginning in May in some Thai provinces that do not report new cases for two weeks.

• Vietnam began last week to lift some restrictions in cities and provinces that have not been deemed high-risk by the government, allowing some non-essential businesses to resume operations.

Spread of COVID-19: North America

United States

Cases of COVID-19 in the United States continue to show signs of plateauing and deaths have also begun to start showing signs of a potential plateau. This peak has been largely achieved thanks to ongoing social distancing measures and stay-at-home orders. With a number of states also appearing to have plateaued in cases and deaths, individual states, and regional groups of states, have begun creating potential reopening plans. Several states, including Georgia and Texas, have already lifted or are planning to lift some restrictions this week. However, no stay-at-home orders have been lifted and all such orders are expected to remain in place through at least April 30. As of Tuesday, at least 812,088 cases and 44,939 deaths have been reported. Last week over 610,300 cases and 29,600 deaths were reported and while deaths have continued to rise at a significant rate, this was the smallest week-to-week percentage increase in cases since the initial explosion of cases at the beginning of March. Seven states (Illinois, Michigan, California, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York) are reporting at least 20,000 cases while nine states (Connecticut, Louisiana, Illinois, Michigan, California, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York) have reported at least 1,000 deaths.

Canada

Canada also appears to be reaching its plateau in cases; however, several provinces, including Ontario, have stated they have not yet reached their peak. Similar to the United States, Canadian officials have begun planning for a potential reopening; however, no set timeline has been announced as officials continue to warn that restrictions are likely to last through at least May. As of Tuesday, at least 37,382 cases and 1,728 deaths have been reported. This continues a trend of a decrease in week-to-week increases of both cases and deaths. Quebec (939) and Ontario (622) are reporting 90 percent of Canadian deaths and the provinces are also reporting over 80 percent of total Canadian COVID-19 cases. Though

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cases appear to be plateauing, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) still considers the risk from COVID-19 to be high for the general public and that variation in risk can be seen between and within communities.

Recent Developments

• The U.S. has announced a 30-day extension of the closures of its borders with both Canada and Mexico to nonessential travel. The closures were set to expire on Tuesday and will now continue through at least May 21.

• To that end, Air Canada has announced it will suspend all cross-border flights between the U.S. and Canada beginning April 26 through at least May 22.

• At least 73 ethanol plants in the U.S. have ceased production while an additional 71 have reduced production. In total, over two-thirds of U.S. ethanol plants have stopped or significantly reduced production. This is due to a continued lack of demand caused by ongoing stay-at-home orders and current high inventories at facilities.

• On Monday night, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that due to COVID-19, all immigration to the U.S. would be temporarily suspended. On Tuesday, President Trump announced that once it takes effect, the order will last for 60 days and will apply to individuals seeking permanent residency. No further details have been reported.

• Over the weekend the U.S. Treasury Department and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that import tariffs could be delayed for 90 days on goods that entered the U.S. in March and April. Importers must show operations were “fully or partially suspended in March or April” due to COVID-19-related restrictions. Tariffs on Chinese goods and steel or aluminum are not included in the delay program. The full rule can be found at the following link: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/22/2020-08618/temporary-postponement-of-the-time-to-deposit-certain-estimated-duties-taxes-and-fees-during-the.

• Beginning last Wednesday, protests have been reported in multiple U.S. states. Protesters have demanded that state governments lift stay-at-home orders. Protesters have been violating said orders in order to participate and the majority of protesters have not been following social distancing guidelines during the protest activity.

• Protests have been reported in Michigan, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Oregon, Tennessee, Washington state, Minnesota, and Kentucky among others. The majority of protest activity has occurred outside state capitols and involved no more than a few hundred people.

• Though the majority of protests have not been disruptive, last Wednesday one of the first protests occurred in Lansing, MI, and involved several thousand people. The group was reportedly impeding access to a nearby hospital for emergency vehicles.

• An uptick in protest activity was seen this weekend following several tweets from President Trump that appeared to show support for earlier protest activity.

• Protests have also been reported across the U.S. involving healthcare workers. The workers are protesting an ongoing shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other medical supplies. The protests have largely taken place outside healthcare facilities, though no major operational disruptions have been reported in relation to the actions.

• The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has reported that hackers believed to be associated with foreign governments have hacked into U.S. healthcare institutions to steal research on COVID-19

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and potential vaccines. The FBI has reported increase of between 3,000 to 4,000 complaints reported per day versus around 1,000 complaints a day pre-COVID-19.

• Last week Google reported over 18 million daily malware and phishing email scams related to COVID-19. The attacks included impersonating organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) to solicit donations or pretending to have information about the U.S. government stimulus payments.

• Earlier in April, a suspect was arrested after trying to set fire to a Jewish-affiliated assisted living facility in Massachusetts. There has been a significant increase in anti-Semitic incidents such as this due to conspiracy theories spreading, which blame Jews for the creation and spread of COVID-19.

• Similarly, there has also been an increase in hate crimes against Asian Americans due to numerous people believing that China is to blame for the creation and spread of the virus.

Spread of COVID-19: Middle East and North Africa

As of this writing, 244,787 cases of COVID-19 have been reported across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since the virus first appeared in the region in the United Arab Emirates on January 29. Of these, 8,970 have been fatal. Turkey has now surpassed Iran as the MENA nation most affected by the coronavirus, and the seventh-most impacted country in the world, despite only announcing its first confirmed case on March 11. The trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic continues to vary widely from country to country, with some nations still recording sizeable daily increases in new cases and transmission rates appearing to decline in others. As a result, some governments continue to adopt new and/or expand existing travel and social distancing restrictions, while others have started easing coronavirus prevention

States Reporting COVID-19 Cases as of Monday, April 20

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

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measures to allow for the resumption of economic activities. Mounting unemployment and financial strain, along with the holy month of Ramadan, expected to start later this week, are likely to increase pressure on governments to begin or accelerate the process of lifting restrictions on business activity. This could potentially manifest in protest activity and labor strikes, though if anti-virus efforts are relaxed too early, it could cause a second wave of contagion.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the Middle East and North Africa continues a general upward trajectory, though some nations are witnessing decreasing transmission and accurate data is unavailable in others due to conflict and/or low testing capabilities.

• Since April 14, the MENA’s overall case tally has increased by roughly 35 percent. Hotspots in this regard include Turkey and some Gulf countries, notably Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, where cases have increased from five to ten percent a day recently.

• Pakistan’s COVID-19 outbreak continues to accelerate, with April 20 witnessing the biggest single-day jump in cases to date.

• North African countries have reported lower incidence of COVID-19 than many of its regional counterparts. The nations most affected in this regard are Egypt (3,333 cases), Morocco (3,046 cases), and Algeria (2,718 cases).

• Conversely, the coronavirus curves in Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories appear to have flattened or are close to leveling off.

• Case tallies remain paltry in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; however, conflict and poor testing regimes are widely perceived to be hampering data completeness.

The variation in the COVID-19 situations across the MENA region has resulted in some governments adopting and extending movement restrictions and social distancing measures, while others have begun relaxing coronavirus lockdowns.

• The governments in Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Morocco, and Tunisia have extended lockdowns, curfews, and other social distancing rules to combat the spread of the coronavirus.

• Authorities in Saudi Arabia and Oman have isolated additional districts as a precaution against COVID-19.

• Authorities in Dubai have extended a virtual 24-hour lockdown through at least April 25 as part of a sterilization campaign aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19, as well as curbing the issuance of permits allowing residents to go out during the emirate’s curfew period.

• The Turkish government has announced a four-day lockdown in 31 provinces, including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Antalya, from April 23 following similar, albeit more abbreviated, measures on the weekends of April 18-19 and April 11-12.

• Conversely, the Iranian government continues to loosen coronavirus restrictions, including the reopening of inter-city highways and major shopping centers, high-end malls, and Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on April 20. So-called “low risk” businesses were allowed to reopen in Tehran and nearby towns on April 18, one week after shops, factories, and workshops, among other establishments, resumed operations outside the capital.

• Jordan eased coronavirus restrictions in the southwestern city of Aqaba on April 19, with curfew procedures to be lifted in Karak, Tafileh, and Ma’an on April 22.

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• The Israeli government has lifted some restrictions on outdoor prayer gatherings, the distance individuals must remain to their homes, and access and egress to Bnei Brak and several Jerusalem neighborhoods. Some businesses and shops have also been allowed to reopen, provided health and social distancing protocols are observed, while public transportation services are to be gradually restored as well.

• Pakistani authorities have allowed some economic activities to resume, though the country’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has extended the suspension of domestic and international commercial flights through at least April 30.

Prayer restrictions and lockdown orders are likely to keep a lid on Ramadan observances throughout most of the region this year. Still, the occasion, associated rituals, and special allowances made by some governments during the Muslim holy month could test anti-coronavirus efforts.

• Government and religious authorities in several MENA countries, notably Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have banned public religious gatherings and/or instructed Muslims to perform Ramadan prayers at home.

• The Jordan-appointed religious council that oversees the site said that the Aqsa Mosque complex at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem will be closed to Muslim worshippers during Ramadan.

• The playing of the traditional Ramadan game of “Mheibes” has been banned in Iraq, while inter-provincial travel has been prohibited in Syria.

• At the same time, the governments in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Syria have moved back curfew start times to allow residents time to shop for essential items within their immediate communities, as well as to get to their respective iftar, the meal that breaks the daily Ramadan fast.

• Pakistan has lifted restrictions on communal prayers at mosques but has announced a series of health and safety conditions to prevent further spread of COVID-19.

• There is a risk that religious hardliners or others trying to maintain the rituals of Ramadan could shun social distancing rules, thereby increasing the threat of further virus transmission.

• Indeed, there are presently no indications of any imminent shortages in the MENA; however, because food consumption traditionally increases during Ramadan, the possibility of bulk-buying or hoarding of basic consumption goods cannot be ruled out in light of the restrictions on personal movement that have limited when inhabitants of some countries may go out to procure supplies.

Although crime rates have dropped as COVID-19 has kept people at home, lockdown orders are fueling other security incidents, while the pandemic in general appears to have done little to de-escalate the various conflicts playing out in the MENA region.

• The mental and emotional duress and financial uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with containment rules enacted by local governments that have confined individuals to their homes, have led to a surge in reports of domestic and gender-based violence in the Middle East and North Africa. Among the countries that have witnessed this trend are Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, and the Palestinian territories.

• Attempts to assign blame for the spread of COVID-19 and/or criticism of the host government’s response to the outbreak has aggravated political, sectarian, and ethnic tensions in some countries.

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• The governments’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including containment policies deemed as undemocratic or prejudicial, has led to protests in Lebanon and Israel in recent days. While most remained peaceful and the majority of participants observed social distancing rules, some in Lebanon have not, raising the possibility of future violence and disruptions to local transportation and infrastructure, while also increasing the risk of transmission.

• Coronavirus lockdowns have resulted in escalated unemployment levels and growing financial hardship, including in nations where many citizens are already grappling with poverty. Socioeconomic tensions are likely to increase the longer restrictions on personal movement and daily life remain in place, raising the prospect of protests if governments are not quick to restore some economic activities.

• Violence has persisted in the MENA’s main combat zones (Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Yemen) despite the COVID-19 pandemic. The ongoing and, in the cases of Libya and Yemen, escalating hostilities have occurred despite calls from the United Nations for a humanitarian pause in order to confront the coronavirus. The general failure of the warring parties to heed such appeals has further weakened already decimated healthcare systems, cut off displaced populations from medical care, exacerbated already dire humanitarian conditions, and prevented the formulation of anti-virus strategies. This has likely made the countries even more ill equipped to withstand a major disease outbreak, opening the door to a significant loss of life.

Spread of COVID-19: Latin America and the Caribbean

Patients have tested positive for COVID-19 in all countries and territories throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. As of Tuesday morning, at least 110,471 cases have been confirmed region-wide. This amounts to an increase of 77 percent over the last week. Still, underreporting is rampant. Many governments in the region lack sufficient testing materials, and it is widely believed that the authoritarian governments of Nicaragua and Venezuela are releasing falsified statistics in an attempt to avoid domestic political repercussions. Brazil remains the epicenter of the outbreak, accounting for over one-third of all cases in the region with its caseload of 40,814. The country with the second-highest caseload is Peru (16,325), followed by Chile (10,507), Ecuador (10,128), Mexico (8,772), the Dominican Republic (4,964), and Panama (4,658). The region-wide death toll has climbed to 5,421. Still, media sources in Brazil, Ecuador, and other countries have reported that many probable victims of the disease that have died have been buried without ever receiving a formal diagnosis. Such deaths are therefore not included in countries’ COVID-19 fatality counts.

As COVID-19 did not emerge in Latin America until late February, the region remains several weeks “behind” Europe and the United States in terms of the broad progression of the pandemic. Public health officials in many countries have predicted that the number of new daily cases will likely peak in May. At this juncture, most governments have continued to extend lockdown measures beyond their initial timeframes, and there have been no firm dates set as to when such restrictions might begin to be loosened.

Economic Downturn and Dissatisfaction with Healthcare Systems Will Increase Potential for Unrest

The potential for political instability and civil unrest will likely increase sharply throughout much of the

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region in the coming weeks. Some countries, such as Chile, had already been gripped by social tumult even prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although protests have mostly subsided in recent weeks, many of the underlying issues remain unresolved and will likely continue to fester beneath the surface. Dissatisfaction with wealth inequality served as one of the main grievances behind the protests, and the COVID-19 pandemic will most likely widen the gap between rich and poor even more. Most countries in the region are poised to experience substantial contractions in their GDPs in 2020, owing to plummeting commodity exports, the precipitous drop-off in tourism, and declining remittances. The World Bank estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic will drive an additional 2.7 million people into extreme poverty throughout Latin America, leaving the region with over ten million people living on less than U.S. $5.50 per day.

Moreover, dissatisfaction with public healthcare systems will likely intensify as the region’s COVID-19 caseloads continue to climb in the coming weeks. In Mexico and Colombia, shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) have already given rise to protests among medical workers. The healthcare systems in many countries throughout the region are chronically underfunded, and some will likely face the risk of collapse. Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela have less than one hospital bed per 1,000 residents. The average for Latin America stands at 2.2, as compared to 2.8 in the United States and 5.6 in the European Union.

Travel Restrictions Have Caused Crime Rates to Shift; Criminals Seek New Income Sources

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has also already begun to have an effect on both small-time crooks and large criminal organizations. The various movement restrictions that have been imposed have caused some forms of crime to plummet. For instance, muggings in Mexico City are reportedly on track to drop by ten percent in April. Some provinces in Argentina have reported that robberies have declined by as much as 90 percent. With many small businesses closed, extortionists are likely to face increased difficulty in securing so-called “protection payments.” Similarly, with worldwide oil prices at historic lows, fuel theft has lost its profitability.

However, other categories of crime have risen. Thieves are likely attempting to diversify, as their traditional sources of income are drying up. Many countries have reported an uptick in phishing and telephone scams. In Mexico, reported kidnappings in March increased by five percent over February. In Brazil, there have been sporadic reports of criminals disguising themselves as public health officials in order to dupe homeowners into letting them inside their residences. Cargo theft, which is already rampant throughout much of Mexico and southeastern Brazil, could potentially increase further in the weeks and months ahead. As panic-buying fuels scarcity, food and other basic consumer goods might fetch higher prices. Looting could also become more common in some countries, as economic hardships continue to mount.

Mexico

• On Sunday, Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell acknowledged that Mexico’s actual COVID-19 caseload is likely at least eight times higher than the number of confirmed of cases.

• On Tuesday, López-Gatell declared that Mexico had entered “phase three” of the pandemic, signifying that a rapid increase is expected in infections and hospitalizations in the coming weeks.

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Pressure on the country’s healthcare system is expected to be most intense throughout the second half of May.

• Sporadic episodes of looting have been reported in Mexico City and Estado de México since the onset of the pandemic. In some cases, large groups of looters have utilized social media to coordinate.

• Local non-governmental organization Alto al Secuestro (“Stop the Kidnapping”) reports that nationwide kidnappings increased by five percent from March to April. The overall number of victims increased by 14 percent, indicating that mass abductions are becoming more common.

• In recent weeks, drug trafficking cartels have reportedly encountered difficulty procuring the precursor chemicals (typically sourced from China) that are needed to produce synthetic opioids. As such, production of fentanyl and methamphetamine has slumped, but violent competition over remaining supplies of chemicals has purportedly increased.

• Criminal organizations such as the Gulf Cartel, Los Viagras, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel have distributed food and supplies in low-income neighborhoods. Such acts of “charity” generally serve a public relations function, shoring up support among residents and boosting recruitment.

Brazil

• Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro have repeatedly gathered in Brasília, São Paulo, and other cities to protest against the movement restrictions that have been enacted by governors and mayors. The president attended one such rally in person over the weekend, in a display that will likely galvanize further demonstrations in the coming weeks.

• Criminals have reportedly disguised themselves as public health officials, and falsely claimed that they were going door to door to conduct COVID-19 testing. In reality, the ruse is used to gain access to homes and commit robberies.

• Multiple states have reported upticks in cybercrime, sometimes entailing text messages, e-mails, and a range of social engineering ploys.

• Some states have released inmates from their penitentiary systems in order mitigate the potential for COVID-19 transmission in prisons. Consequently, some communities could potentially face an uptick in crime, as frequently occurs during regularly scheduled seasonal furloughs of prisoners.

• In an effort to conserve resources, some municipalities have announced the reduction of non-essential Civil Police services for investigating non-life-threatening crimes and/or traffic accidents. Military Police and firefighters continue to operate at normal capacity.

• Media sources report that gangs are enforcing curfews throughout some favelas (shantytowns), and threatening violators with physical violence.

Colombia

• Medical workers have repeatedly held protests outside of different hospitals and clinics to demand back pay and improved PPE.

• In light of the pandemic, the National Liberation Army (ELN) declared a one-month, unilateral ceasefire on March 29th. As of this writing, it remains unclear whether the insurgents might opt to extend it further.

• Over 4,000 non-violent inmates have been transferred to house arrest from the country’s overcrowded prison system, and some 6,000 more could potentially be released in the coming weeks. Given the high number of released prisoners, some degree of recidivism is likely.

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Venezuela

• Venezuela was already gripped by runaway hyperinflation, a failing healthcare system, widespread unrest, and chronic shortages of food, fuel, and basic consumer goods prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, a local NGO, reports that 580 protests were documented across the country throughout March. Roughly one-quarter of the demonstrations took place in flagrant violation of the nationwide quarantine.

• As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take its toll on the population and sap the cash-strapped government of resources, political stability will likely continue to deteriorate. Other factors that will likely contribute to volatility include the following:

o Ruling President Nicolás Maduro recently proclaimed that due to the pandemic, legislative elections might not take place this year, despite existing law requiring them to be held in 2020.

o Media sources report that Venezuelan security forces successfully suppressed an attempted uprising among Bolivarian National Guard officers on Tuesday morning. Although the plotters were reportedly apprehended, the incident could potentially inspire copycat actions against the government.

o In recent weeks, thousands of Venezuelan citizens from diaspora communities across the region have returned from abroad as employment opportunities have dried up.

o The U.S. government has recently boosted drug interdiction capabilities in the Caribbean, which could undercut what is thought to be a major source of income for the Maduro administration.

Spread of COVID-19: Sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate across Sub-Saharan Africa, with the number of confirmed cases rising by 55 percent compared to last week. However, the number of cases remains significantly lower than many other regions and there is some room for optimism, as the number of new cases appears to be slowing slightly in recent weeks. This is particularly true in countries such as South Africa, where a nationwide lockdown, coupled with an increase in testing for the virus, appears to have led to a significant decrease in new cases. Nonetheless, the World Health Organization has warned that Africa as a whole could experience up to ten million cases within the next three to six months, including 300,000 deaths. While many countries have expanded their travel restrictions in an effort to help combat the outbreak, others have begun to gradually lift or ease the measures, which officials have warned could lead to an uptick in cases. Additionally, as the public health measures have worn on, there has been growing community resistance, resulting in an uptick in clashes with security forces, protests, riots, labor actions, and crime in multiple locations.

Regional Trends

• As of the morning of Tuesday, April 21, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Sub-Saharan Africa has reached over 14,225. This marks a 55 percent increase compared to last Tuesday, April 14. While this is significant, it is lower than previous weeks, which saw the number of new cases nearly doubling.

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• The number of deaths has reached 338, for an overall case fatality ratio of approximately two percent.

• South Africa remains the worst-affected country in the region, recording 3,300 cases; however, the average relative daily increase in cases has fallen to 5.31 since the lockdown began in late March, compared to 44.81 prior to the lockdown. This suggests that the lockdown and increase in testing could be proving effective.

• The next worst-affected countries include Cameroon (1,163), Ghana (1,042), Djibouti (945), and Cote d’Ivoire (879). The top five worst-affected countries account for around half of all cases in the region.

• Over the last week, exponential increases in cases were recorded in a number of countries, including Somalia (556%), Sudan (463%), Cape Verde (460%), Tanzania (420%), Sierra Leone (330%), Equatorial Guinea (276%), Djibouti (217%), Republic of the Congo (116%), Mali, (112%), and Gabon (111%).

• No new cases were reported in Mauritania, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, and South Sudan.

• Of the countries that have recorded over 100 confirmed cases, significantly higher-than-average case fatality ratios have occurred in Sudan (11%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (7%), Burkina Faso (6%), and Mali (6%).

• As the pandemic continues to escalate, a majority of countries have expanded their airport closures, lockdowns, confinements, curfews, and other public health measures; however, a few have begun lifting or easing these restrictions. This includes Ghana, Madagascar, and Burkina Faso.

• Although South Africa and Zimbabwe have extended their nationwide lockdowns, both have eased the restrictions on mining companies and the former has also allowed partial operations to resume at maritime ports.

Security Implications As the pandemic has worn on, there have been growing reports of violence and unrest across Sub-Saharan Africa. While the unrest initially included violence against foreigners, who were perceived as bringing the virus to the continent, and scams related to the virus containment efforts, it has escalated in recent weeks as federal and local governments have imposed or expanded the lockdowns, curfews, and other public health measures. This is in part due to the fact that many of these measures are perceived as disproportionately affecting lower class communities, which rely on public markets, transportation, and other informal economic activities to survive, and often live day-to-day. In some cases, this has resulted in an uptick in protests, riots, labor actions, and clashes with security forces enforcing the measures. There has also been some speculation that it could lead to a rise in criminal activity as residents pursue other means of survival. The following is a list of some recent violence and unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa:

• Human rights activists last week accused Nigerian security forces of killing at least 18 people while enforcing the public health measures. This could further fuel anti-government sentiment and raise the risk of protests and unrest. Previously, residents in Lagos State had threatened to protest to demand greater support from the government to deal with the lockdown.

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• One of the largest oil unions in Nigeria threatened to embark on a strike last week after over 20 oil workers were briefly detained in Rivers State, allegedly for violating the public health measures. The threat was withdrawn over the weekend after the workers were released.

• In Malawi, informal workers protested in multiple locations last week ahead of the planned nationwide lockdown. There were reports of looting and vandalism, but the protests quieted down after the high court blocked the lockdown. Nurses have also embarked on a nationwide strike over working conditions.

• In South Africa, reports of looting of shops, trucks, and liquor stores have continued, most recently occurring in Macassar on Tuesday. Nearly 400 schools have also been vandalized since the lockdown began in late March.

• In Niger, some 30 people were arrested in Niamey on Monday during a protest against the nighttime curfew and the closure of mosques.

• In Sudan, Islamist supporters held several protests last week against the civilian-led government and its plan to cancel prayer services at mosques in Khartoum. There are also rising concerns that the growing rifts within the government between the military and civilian leaders could jeopardize the fragile government and potentially raise the risk of unrest or a military intervention.

• In Uganda, there has been rising public discontent over plans to give members of parliament 20 million Ugandan shillings (approximately U.S. $5,000) each to combat the pandemic. Residents held a “Black Monday” protest on April 20, banging pots and pans from their homes and the risk that the unrest could spill onto the streets cannot be ruled out.

• In Brazzaville in the Republic of the Congo, there have been increasing reports over the last week of looting during the nighttime curfew.

• Security forces in multiple countries have been accused of human rights abuses while enforcing the curfews and other measures, including in Togo, where local sources have accused them of excessive use of force and rape.

With many countries extending their public health measures over the coming weeks, the economic impacts of the pandemic are likely to intensify, which could further fuel anti-government sentiment and raise the risk of additional protests, labor actions, riots, and violence. This could be particularly true as the Muslim holiday of Ramadan approaches and places of worship remain closed. Those with interests in Sub-Saharan Africa are advised to heed all advice from local authorities and avoid all protests and large crowds due to the potential for violence.

Assessment

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to continue its global spread as concerns persist over the risk of extensive growth in poorer countries with dense populations, including warnings of starvation and other exacerbated hardships. Overall continued steps in Europe toward stabilization and recovery remain largely gradual as many countries are wary of a spike in the outbreak that could prove more disruptive and costly in the long term. Global competition for outbreak-related supplies remains a central challenge for healthcare systems around the world.

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While the lockdowns and other social distancing precautions have seen declining crimes in some circumstances, the pandemic-related developments have also exacerbated some criminal activity and raised concerns of broader social unrest or upheaval. Disinformation and misinformation linked to COVID-19 can foster and perpetuate biases and fears that can develop into protests, acts of destruction and/or violence, and foment societal divides. Protest activity has declined in many areas hit by the pandemic, including in countries across Europe. As restrictions on large groups are overall being maintained in the coming weeks and months, events such as May Day (International Workers’ Day) are likely to see a heavily reduced, if not largely obsolete, level of physical demonstration activity. Around the world, healthcare workers and others associated with outbreak responses could be targeted, including by those who fear that such personnel arriving from outside a community pose a risk of further spread. Although border restrictions and national lockdowns may hinder the movement of extremists, militant and terror groups may seek to take advantage of current restrictions to regroup, engage online, plan, and conduct campaigns. It is advised to continue monitoring the shifting pandemic and associated security concerns, to abide by national and sub-national restrictions, and to follow guidance from personal healthcare providers as well as national and international health organizations.

About the Author

Stephanie Kiefer is the Senior Regional Analyst for Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Stephanie earned her BA in

Political Science and Philosophy from Indiana University, with a year studying abroad at the University of Kent in

England. She earned her MA in International Relations from University of Kent’s Brussels School of International

Studies, and she has a working familiarity with French. Stephanie has previous experience working for a consulting

group and a LexisNexis company in Washington DC.

She can be reached at [email protected].

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