share tips expert commodity report 24032011

8/6/2019 Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 24032011

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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Thursday, March 24, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

GOLD 20928 21045 20897 21013 0.5

SILVER 54213 55543 54148 55498 2.17

GOLD 1438.25 1438.75 1435.8 1437.85 0.05

SILVER 37.36 37.37 37.17 37.27 -0.24

PLATINUM 1748.5 1751.99 1746.5 1751.49 0.2

Bullion ended higher re-approaching as the safe haven

appeal of the precious metal was boosted by ongoing

turmoil in the Middle East and renewed concerns over the

euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis.SPOT $

MCX


CRUDE 4719 4793 4719 4770 1.09

N.GAS 190.8 195 190.8 192.8 1.5

Crude oil rose as attacks on Israel, unrest in Yemen and

other the Middle East countries and falling gasoline stocks

in the United States lifted price. Natural gas were up

jumping to the highest price in seven weeks after

forecasts of below avera e s rin weather boosted

MCX

ENERGY COMPLEX

CRUDE 104.85 106.34 104.38 105.75 0.858369


demand expectations for the heating fuel.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

MCX

. . . . .

ZINC 104.95 108.35 104.95 108.15 3.37

NICKEL 1189.7 1208.7 1189.7 1206.2 1.59

LEAD 121.85 123.9 121.4 123.6 1.82

ALUMINIUM 115.8 117.3 115.7 117.15 1.24

COPPER 9720 9720 9670.25 9685 -0.62 -200

ZINC 2410 2410.5 2390 2398 -0.79 -275

COPPER

ZINC

434150

735750

Base meta s are en e ig er ami a roa rise across

global commodity markets as investor confidence

continues to recover.

LME STOCKLM E

. .

NICKEL 26800 2639 26750 26780 -0.26 -426

LEAD 2713 2747 2698 2705 -0.81 -150

ALUMINIUM 2637 2747 2621 2625 -0.23 -6475

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX

18361.33 5524.5 2270.5 1297.54 8248.83 12086.02 9437.54 2951.25 2029.01 22998.79 75.98

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

4594450

NICKEL

LEAD

ALUMINIUM

124038

286900

0.85 0.81 0.56 0.29 0.25 0.56 -0.13 0.09 0.84 0.77 0.25

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OPEN

20928

HIGH

F U T U R

E

% CNG

VOLUME

CLOSE

21013

0.5

21045

LOW

20897

Gold rallied b 0.50% settled at 21013 once a ain above 21000 mark re-a roachin an all-time

X

G O L D

INTRADAY LEVELS

25125

OI

RE CNG

105

9922

P.P. 20985

SUP 1 RES 1

20925 21073

SUP 2 RES 2

20837 21133

SUP 3 RES 3

20777 21221

.high as the safe haven appeal of the precious metal was boosted by ongoing turmoil in the Middle

East and renewed concerns over the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. Earlier in the day, Yemen’s

parliament approved to impose a state-of-emergency in the country for 30 days, as clashes between

protestors and government forces escalated in an attempt to maintain pressure on President Ali

Abdullah Saleh, who warned that the country would slip into civil war if he was forced to resign. Now

gold is getting support at 20925 and below could see a test of 20837 level, and resistance is now

likely to be seen at 21073, a move above could see prices testing 21133.

M C

LOW

U R

E

54148

OPEN

54213

HIGH

55543

V E R F U

RE CNG

55498

% CNG

OI

16331

83345

2.17

VOLUME

P.P. 55063

SUP 1 RES 1

54583 55978

SUP 2 RES 2 M C X S

I

Silver for May delivery jumped almost by 2.17% and settled at 55498 level that is traded at a 31-

year high of $36.78 on fresh buying by speculators driven by a firm global trend. Also support from

worries over the euro zone debt crisis and unrest in the Middle East buoyed investors' interest in

bullion. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating

1202

INTRADAY LEVELS

53668 56458

SUP 3 RES 3

53188 57373

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. , w ere as s a . an s ver s ra ng a ove e same an ge ng suppor a

54583 and below could see a test of 53668 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 55978, a

move above could see prices testing 56458.

Page No. 2



OPEN

4719

HIGH

F U T U R E 4793

LOW

4719CLOSE

4770

% CNG

1.09

VOLUME

C R U D E

148252

OI

16558

RE CNG

52

INTRADAY LEVELSCrude-oil pushed past $105 a barrel extending the previous session’s gains, as fighting in Libya and

P.P. 4761

SUP 1 RES 1

4728 4802

SUP 2 RES 2

4687 4835

SUP 3 RES 3

4654 4876

M C

antigovernment protests in the Middle East kept the risk of a supply shortfall on the front burner.

Crude oil inventories rose slightly more-than-expected in the week ending March 18, official data

showed on Wednesday. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose more-than-

expected in the week ended March 18, increasing by 2.1 million barrels, after rising by 1.7 million

barrels in the preceding week. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is

currently indicating 62.11, where as 50DMA is at 4472.44 and crude is trading above the same and

getting support at 4728 and below could see a test of 4687 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 4802, a move above could see prices testing 4835.

T U R

EOPEN

430.9

HIGH

441.7LOW

430.9

P P E R F U 441.15

% CNG

2.5

VOLUME

107259

OI

21207

RE CNG

P.P. 437.9

SUP 1 RES 1

434.1 444.9

SUP 2 RES 2 M C X C

O

Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 2.5% up at 441.15 shrugging off dismal

U.S. housing data and rallying in tandem with broader industrial commodity strength. The prospect

of reconstruction efforts in Japan following the country's largest-ever earthquake and subsequent

tsunami and nuclear crisis, against a backdrop of tightening supplies, continued to keep some base

metals buoyant, even as the economic impact from the disaster remained uncertain. Even an

11.05

INTRADAY LEVELS

427.1 448.7

SUP 3 RES 3

423.3 455.7

unexpec e a n . . new ome sa es o a recor ow n e ruary a e o rea e ac o

copper, which is used extensively in the industry for plumbing and electrical wiring. For today's

session market is looking to take support at 434.1, a break below could see a test of 427.1 and

where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 444.9, a move above could see prices testing 448.7.

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OPEN

104.95

HIGH

U T U R

E108.35

LOW

104.95CLOSE

108.15

% CNG

3.37

VOLUME

X

Z I N C

29980

OI

6037

RE CNG

3.65

INTRADAY LEVELSZinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 3.37% up at 108.15 as support seen

P.P. 107.2

SUP 1 RES 1

106.0 109.4

SUP 2 RES 2

103.8 110.6

SUP 3 RES 3

102.6 112.8

M C

a er new ome sa es or e ruary p unge y . o a recor ow annua ra e o250,000 units. The US dollar index rebounded to 75.9 from 75.4. But investors increased

purchases on speculations that metal demand from Japan for reconstruction will increase as a

result of the huge earthquake and nuclear crisis. LME zinc prices overnight rose by USD 43/mt

to close at USD 2,350/mt, above the 5-day moving average. In yesterday's trading session

zinc has touched the low of 104.95 after opening at 104.95, and finally settled at 108.15. For

today's session market is looking to take support at 106, a break below could see a test of

103.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 109.4, a move above could see

U R

EOPEN

1189.7

HIGH

1208.7LOW

1189.7

K E L F U 1206.2

% CNG

1.59

VOLUME

38109

OI

6706

RE CNG

P.P. 1202

SUP 1 RES 1

1194 1213

SUP 2 RES 2 M C X N

I

19.2

INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.59% up at 1206.2 tracking LME nickel

for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,350/mt and closed at USD 26,850/mt overnight, up

by USD 450/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 26,900/mt and the lowest price at

USD 26,349/mt. LME base metal largely ended with gains on Wednesday from market expectation

that metal demand will increase in the medium term, despite slight rebound of the US dollar.

-

1183 1221

SUP 3 RES 3

1175 1232

Page No. 4

rospec o cons ruc on- r ven eman w con nue en suppor or cer a n ase me a s. or

today's session market is looking to take support at 1194.4, a break below could see a test of

1182.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1213.4, a move above could see prices

testing 1220.5.

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ROPEN

115.8

HIGH

U M F U

T117.3

LOW

115.7CLOSE

117.15

VOLUME

% CNG

1.24

L U M I N I

1.45

INTRADAY LEVELS

2005

RE CNG

Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.24% up at 117.15 tracking LME

OI

6104

P.P. 116.7

SUP 1 RES 1

116.1 117.7

SUP 2 RES 2

115.1 118.3

SUP 3 RES 3

114.5 119.3 M C X

aluminum prices opened high and moved higher last night supported by rising energy prices and

market expectations of robust demand for base metals from post-earthquake reconstruction in

Japan, with prices opening higher at USD 2,618/mt and finally closing at a higher of USD 2,631/mt,

up USD 31/mt or 1.19% compared with the previous trading day. The US Commerce Department

announced on Wednesday that new home sales in February fell by 16.9% to an annual rate of

250,000, hitting a record low and lower than the forecast of 290,000. For today's session market is

looking to take support at 116.1, a break below could see a test of 115.1 and where as resistance is

now likely to be seen at 117.7, a move above could see prices testing 118.3.

195

190.8 T U R E

OPEN

190.8

HIGH

LOW

% CNG

192.8

. G A S

F1.5

7088

RE CNG

OI

VOLUME

23607

P.P. 192.9

SUP 1 RES 1

190.7 194.9

SUP 2 RES 2

C X N A

2.9

INTRADAY LEVELS

Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.5% up at 192.8 jumping to the

highest price in seven weeks after forecasts of below average spring weather boosted demand

expectations for the heating fuel. Earlier in the day, industry weather group MDA Federal said that it

expected colder-than-normal temperatures from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and

Northeast through April 1. Meanwhile, the Commodity Weather Group said in a report on Tuesday

that it forecast below normal temperatures in key gas-heating areas in the U.S. from March 27 to

188.7 197.1

SUP 3 RES 3

186.5 199.1

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April 2, while adding that “many areas of the Midwest and East could see late-season winter

weather” during the period. For today's session market is looking to take support at 190.7, a break

below could see a test of 188.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.9, a move

above could see prices testing 197.1.



ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT

APRIL 21013 270 568 MAY 55498 603 1111

JUNE 21283 298 JULY 56101 508AUG 21581 SEPT 56609

Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday

ended at 603, we have seen yesterday that the silver

market had traded with a positive node and settled

2.17% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 559 -

607.

Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday

ended at 270, we have seen yesterday that the gold

market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.5%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 262 - 274.

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE

APRIL 4770 54 98 APRIL 441.15 5.35

MAY 4824 44 JUNE 446.5

JUNE 4868

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay

ended at 5.35, we have seen yesterday that the copper


up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.3 - 6.25.

DAILY SPR EAD IN NI CKEL - MCX A R K E T

DAILY SPR EAD IN ZINC - MCX

Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay

ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude


up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 70.

MONTH MONTH

MARCH 108.15 1.15 MARCH 1206.2 8.7

APRIL 109.3 APRIL 1214.9

Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 1.15, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a positive node and settled 3.37%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1.05 - 2.

Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 8.70, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled

1.59% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.20 -

12.3. P R E A D

MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL

MARCH 192.8 5.4 MARCH 1288 -207.4

APRIL 198.2 APRIL 1080.6

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

S read between natural as MAR & APR contracts S read between menthol oil MAR & APR contracts

yesterday ended at 5.40, we have seen yesterday that the

natural gas market had traded with a positive node and

settled 1.5% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.4 - 6.2.

yesterday ended at -207.40, we have seen yesterday that

the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node

and settled -0.9% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -232 to -196.6.




DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s

1:30pm EUR 56.1 55.7 L

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

DATA

1:30pm EUR 59.6 59.7

2:00pm EUR 62.1 62.7

2:00pm EUR 58.5 58.62:30pm EUR 58.3 59

2:30pm EUR 56.4 56.8

Day 1 EUR 0 0

6:00pm USD 0.021 -0.03

6:00pm USD 388K 385K O N O M I

C

D A T A

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

German Flash Services PMIFlash Manufacturing PMI

Flash Services PMI

French Flash Services PMI

Thu EU Economic Summit

Core Durable Goods Orders m/ m

Unemployment Claims

6:00pm USD 0.012 0.032

8:00pm USD -11B -56B

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

E C Durable Goods Orders m/ m

Natural Gas Storage

0

0

The government will certainly not indulge in self congratulation for agriculture recording a growth of 5.4 per cent to

232.07 million tonnes in 2010-11 as this is happening on a low production base of 218.11 million tonnes last year

when the country experienced the worst south-west monsoon since 1972. In fact, the major concern of the

’

E

. .country will miss the four per cent annual growth for the sector during the eleventh plan by a long margin is not in

doubt. There is no way growth could be raised to 8.5 per cent next year to compensate for performance deficit in the

earlier years. The crisis in agriculture in the form of virtual stagnation in productivity and difficulty in commissioning

new unfarmed land finds expression in a table in the Economic Survey. The table on compound annual growth rate

basis shows that in 10 years to 2009-10, the area under rice shrank 0.03 per cent and production and productivity of

the cereal grew 1.59 per cent and 1.61 per cent, respectively. As for wheat, the area gain was 1.21 per cent, while

progress in production and productivity was 1.89 per cent and 0.68 per cent, respectively. Productivity gains have

plateaued raising concerns about food security. All this goes to show that the country now urgently needs a follow up

green revolution to the one of the 1960s which led to major breakthroughs in wheat and rice production. The next

C A

N

Ugreen revolution has to happen to chase the twin goals of food security and nutritional diet. Without the second

revolution, which can be postponed at the nation’s peril, the supply side’s response to growing demand for food will

Farmers with irrigated fields in Punjab and Haryana will start sowing cotton in a fortnight. Agriculture department

officials estimate a 10% to 15% increase in acreage this season as cotton has become more lucrative than paddy,

basmati and pulses. Government's paddy procuring agencies and basmati exporters don't think that the staple's

production will take a hit. According to the revised estimates by the Cotton Advisory Board on February 26 this year

for the cotton season 2010-11 acrea e was at 111.61 lakh hectare with an avera e ield 475.23 k er hectare and

W S Y O

- , . .

a production of 312 lakh bales. With wheat harvesting to begin in a fortnight across Punjab and Haryana, farmers are

preparing for sowing cotton. In major cotton-growing states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, sowing will begin after the

rainy season. "We are targeting to increase the area under cotton by 50,000-60,000 hectare this year covering 5.5-

5.6 lakh hectare. The government has been working to divert the cropping pattern from paddy to cotton with

depleting water table," said Punjab agriculture joint director Tarsem Singh. Production figures are expected to be at

25 lakh bales (one bale=170 kg) compared to 20 lakh bales in 2010. In Maharashtra, the area is expected to increase

by 10% this year. Sowing was done on 40 lakh hectare in 2010, of which irrigated farms constituted only 2% to 3%.

N

Indian overnight cash rates were almost steady on Wednesday as liquidity stayed tight following advance tax

outflows and demand for funds from banks was high. The one-day inter-bank cash rate was at 7.70/7.75, largely

unchanged from its previous close of 7.75/7.80. Liquidity scenario is still pretty tight. That is why you see the cash

rates holding up. This is the end of the financial year and there would be credit off-take taking place at the banks.

Cash supply has been strained since last week due to large advance tax outflows, roughly estimated to have been

around 500 billion-600 billion rupees, but is likely to improve in coming days as government spending kicks in.

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