share tips expert commodity report 28032011

8/6/2019 Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 28032011

1/8

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, March 28, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

GOLD 20806 20839 20806 20829 0.2

SILVER 55400 55524 55336 55478 0.32

GOLD 1424.85 1429.3 1423.5 1426.65 -0.2

SILVER 37.2 37.36 37.02 37.16 -0.35

PLATINUM 1740.5 1735.99 1733 1735.99 -0.66

Bullion ended the week with gains as Portugal's credit

downgrade and escalating political unrest in the Arab

world underpinned safe-haven demand.SPOT $

MCX


CRUDE 4736 4745 4736 4742 0.15

N.GAS 193.3 199.7 193.3 197.4 2.53

Oil prices recovered Saturday after dropping Friday

dipped as traders weighed concerns about Middle East

unrest and Libya's conflict as well as demand for oil in

quake-hit Japan and debt-laden Europe. Natural gas rose

as forecasts showed colder-than-normal weather,

MCX

ENERGY COMPLEX

CRUDE 105.46 105.95 104.5 105.4 -0.056894


,

boosting demand for the heating fuel.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

MCX

. . . . .

ZINC 106 106.3 106 106.2 0.09

NICKEL 1216 1217 1213.2 1216.7 0.24

LEAD 121.1 121.35 120.95 121.25 0.25

ALUMINIUM 116.9 117.3 116.9 117.2 0.21

COPPER 9705.25 9720.25 9585.25 9605 -1.18 4650

ZINC 2379 2395 2363.25 2364.75 -0.42 -175

COPPER

ZINC

439275

735275

Base meta s inc e ower as investors remaine cautious

over the long-term demand outlook despite upbeat U.S

economic data and stronger equities markets.

LME STOCKLM E

. . .

NICKEL 27050 2645 26750 26800 -1.01 660

LEAD 2674 2684 2640 2646 -1.27 -1650

ALUMINIUM 2640 2684 2630 2631 -0.38 -5925

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX

18899.29 5674 2316.36 1313.8 8321.78 12220.59 9470.07 2998.78 2047.99 22999.99 76.31

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

4602950

NICKEL

LEAD

ALUMINIUM

124254

283975

0.44 0.35 0.18 0.32 0.12 0.41 -0.69 0.7 -0.29 -0.69 -0.11

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2/8

OPEN

20806

HIGH

FUTUR

E

% CNG

VOLUME

CLOSE

20829

0.2

20839

LOW

20806

Gold continued it positive ending on week but prices slumped Friday as stronger-than-forecast U.S.

X

GOLD

INTRADAY LEVELS

1691

OI

RE CNG

41

9132

P.P. 20825

SUP 1 RES 1

20810 20843

SUP 2 RES 2

20792 20858

SUP 3 RES 3

20777 20876

economic data prompted traders to book gains from record prices set earlier in the week. Gold is

closing the week slightly higher at 20829. This week we achieved a high of 21048. Our week's low of

20715 provides some support but, bigger picture, the key level is last weeks low of 20470. The price

action looks like side ways consolidation of the January 19800 to March 21270 up move. We believe

the risk remains higher for gold to 22200. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for

18days is currently indicating 51.4, where as 50DMA is at 20684.4 and gold is trading above the

same and getting support at 20810 and below could see a test of 20792 level, And resistance is now

likely to be seen at 20843, a move above could see prices testing 20858.

MC

LOW

UR

E

55336

OPEN

55400

HIGH

55524

VERFU

RE CNG

55478

% CNG

OI

15262

3324

0.32

VOLUME

P.P. 55446

SUP 1 RES 1

55368 55556

SUP 2 RES 2MCXS

I

Silver prices ended firm Saturday after falling Friday after a positive report on the economy sent

investors searching for riskier assets after trading higher earlier in the day on concern that Portugal

may have to seek a bailout and escalating unrest in Libya and the Middle East fuelled demand for

precious metals. Silver is higher this week at 55478. The strong up leg reached to 56555. The Gold

Silver ratio is closing as a bearish candle having dropped from last weeks 39.97 close to current

38.39. We broke the 1998 low of 39.09 thus exceeding our long term target. Risk remains lower in

176

INTRADAY LEVELS

55258 55634

SUP 3 RES 3

55180 55744

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the ratio. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating

70.78, where as 50DMA is at 50016.3 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at

55368 and below could see a test of 55258 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55556, a

move above could see prices testing 55634.

Page No. 2


3/8

OPEN

4736

HIGH

FUTURE 4745

LOW

4736CLOSE

4742

% CNG

0.15

VOLUME

CRUDE

1689

OI

16153

RE CNG

7

INTRADAY LEVELS

Oil recovered Saturda after rices fell Frida on concern that the Euro ean debt situation and the P.P. 4741

SUP 1 RES 1

4737 4746

SUP 2 RES 2

4732 4750

SUP 3 RES 3

4728 4755

MC

crisis in Japan will curb fuel demand. Oil slipped as EU leaders acceded to German demands to make

smaller upfront payments for the support fund. Libyas crude exports may be curbed for months

because of sanctions and damage to production facilities, the International Energy Agency said. Now

technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 58.47, where as

50DMA is at 4505.78 and crude is trading above the same and getting support at 4737 and below

could see a test of 4732 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4746, a move above could

see prices testing 4750.

TUR

EOPEN

438.5

HIGH

439.4LOW

438.1

PPERFU 439.1

% CNG

0.14

VOLUME

1701

OI

19145

RE CNG

P.P. 438.9

SUP 1 RES 1

438.3 439.6

SUP 2 RES 2MCXC

O

Copper ended settled flat as investors continued to weigh the economic impact from Japan's nuclear

catastrophe and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. China's physical metals market is still

demonstrating no clear signs of aggressive restocking, which also helped reverse the upward metals

had built up since the Japanese earthquake and tsunami prompted expectations of higher demand

for reconstruction efforts. Chile's Codelco said its 2010 output dipped but should be steady this year,

and expects strong Chinese demand, Japan's recovery after a natural disaster, as well as new uses

0.6

INTRADAY LEVELS

437.6 440.2

SUP 3 RES 3

437.0 440.9

to stoke demand. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 438.1 after opening

at 438.5, and finally settled at 439.1. For today's session market is looking to take support at 438.3,

a break below could see a test of 437.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 439.6, a

move above could see prices testing 440.2.

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4/8

OPEN

106

HIGH

UTUR

E106.3

LOW

106CLOSE

106.2

% CNG

0.09

VOLUME

X

ZINC

361

OI

6389

RE CNG

0.1

INTRADAY LEVELS

P.P. 106.2

SUP 1 RES 1

106.0 106.3

SUP 2 RES 2

105.9 106.5

SUP 3 RES 3

105.7 106.6

MC

su n ng an me ng o, apan s op z nc sme er, sa wou resor o mpor s o

base metal as its 110,000 tonne-a-year Hachinohe zinc smelter in northern Japan would

probably remain shut for a while after the quake and tsunami damaged the facility. In

yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of 106 after opening at 106, and finally

settled at 106.2. For today's session market is looking to take support at 106, a break below

could see a test of 105.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 106.3, a move

above could see prices testing 106.5.

UR

EOPEN

1216

HIGH

1217LOW

1213.2

KELFU 1216.7

% CNG

0.24

VOLUME

657

OI

5873

RE CNG

P.P. 1216

SUP 1 RES 1

1214 1218

SUP 2 RES 2MCXN

I

2.9

INTRADAY LEVELS

Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.24% up at 1216.7 after prices

pressured on Friday on weakening trend at the London Metal Exchange, subdued demand from alloy

maker in the spot market led to the decline in nickel prices. In yesterday's trading session nickel has

touched the low of 1213.2 after opening at 1216, and finally settled at 1216.7. For today's session

1212 1219

SUP 3 RES 3

1210 1222

Page No. 4

market is looking to take support at 1214.3, a break below could see a test of 1211.8 and where as

resistance is now likely to be seen at 1218.1, a move above could see prices testing 1219.4.

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5/8

ROPEN

116.9

HIGH

UMFU

T117.3

LOW

116.9CLOSE

117.2

VOLUME

% CNG

0.21

LUMINI

0.25

INTRADAY LEVELS

1863

RE CNG

OI

72

P.P. 117.1

SUP 1 RES 1

117.0 117.4

SUP 2 RES 2

116.7 117.5

SUP 3 RES 3

116.6 117.8MCX

There was a big oversupply of aluminium, with brimming inventories in LME warehouses. Data

showed aluminium headline inventories fell 5,925 tonnes to 4,602,950 tonnes, but remain less than

a percent from record highs. Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.21%

up at 117.2. In yesterday's trading session aluminium has touched the low of 116.9 after opening at

116.9, and finally settled at 117.2. For today's session market is looking to take support at 117, a

break below could see a test of 116.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 117.4, a


199.7

193.3TURE

OPEN

193.3

HIGH

LOW

% CNG

197.4

.GAS

F2.53

5679

RE CNG

OI

VOLUME

2771

P.P. 196.8

SUP 1 RES 1

193.9 200.3

SUP 2 RES 2

CXNA

5

INTRADAY LEVELS

Natural gas rose to the highest level in more than seven weeks as forecasts showed colder-than-

normal weather, boosting demand for the heating fuel. The number of gas drilling rigs rose this week

after dropping to the lowest level since Jan. 29, 2010 in the previous week. The stockpile decrease

was smaller than the five-year average withdrawal for the week of 17 billion cubic feet, department

data show. A surplus to the five-year average rose to 2.2 percent from 1.4 percent the previous

'

190.4 203.2

SUP 3 RES 3

187.5 206.7

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wee . In yester ay s tra ing session natura gas as touc e t e ow o 193.3 a ter opening at

193.3, and finally settled at 197.4. For today's session market is looking to take support at 193.9, a

break below could see a test of 190.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.3, a



6/8

ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT

APRIL 20829 269 588 MAY 55478 701 1345

JUNE 21098 319 JULY 56179 644AUG 21417 SEPT 56823

Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday

ended at 701, we have seen yesterday that the silver

market had traded with a positive node and settled

0.32% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 672 -

759.

Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday

ended at 269, we have seen yesterday that the gold

market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.2%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 269 - 295.

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE

APRIL 4742 57 103 APRIL 439.1 5.6

MAY 4799 46 JUNE 444.7

JUNE 4845

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay

ended at 5.6, we have seen yesterday that the copper

market had traded with a positive node and settled

0.14% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.5 -

5.65.

DAILY SPR EAD IN NICKEL - MCXARKET

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX

Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay

ended at 57, we have seen yesterday that the crude

market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.15%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 57 - 67.

MONTH MONTH

MARCH 106.2 1.3 MARCH 1216.7 8.8

APRIL 107.5 APRIL 1225.5

Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 1.3, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a positive node and settled 0.09%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.3.

Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 8.80, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled

0.24% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 7.10 -

9.PREAD

MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

MARCH 197.4 5.9 APRIL 1116.3 -144.4

APRIL 203.3 MAY 971.9

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

S read between natural as MAR & APR contracts S read between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts

yesterday ended at 5.90, we have seen yesterday that the

natural gas market had traded with a positive node and

settled 2.53% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of4.5 - 6.6.

yesterday ended at -144.40, we have seen yesterday that

the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node

and settled 1.4% up. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -146.9 to -139.3.



7/8

DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s

6:00pm USD 0.002 0.001L

Core PCE Price Index m/ m

DATA

6:00pm USD 0.006 0.002

6:00pm USD 0.005 0.01

7:30pm USD 0 -0.0288:30pm EUR 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0ONOMI

C

DATA

Personal Income m/ m

Pending Home Sales m/ mECB President Trichet Speaks

0

Personal Spending m/ m

Mo n 0

0

0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

EC 0

0

0

0

E

World wheat production will total 676 million metric tons in 2011, a growth of 3.4% from last year's levels but still

below the bumper harvests of 2008 and 2009, according Wednesday to a report by the United Nations' food body.

Wheat plantings in many countries have increased or are expected to increase this year in response to strong prices,

the Food and Agriculture Organization noted in its latest edition of the Crops Prospects and Food Situation report. At

the same time, yield recoveries are forecast in areas that were affected by drought in 2010, the Russian Federation in

particular, the FAO report noted. The majority of global coarse grains and paddy crops are still to be planted, making

it difficult to forecast total cereal production for 2011, the report added.

CA

N

U

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will step up its use of crude for power generation in 2011, Saleh Alawaji,

the country's junior electricity minister, said on Thursday, as the nation balances use of a new oilfield against

obligations to oil cartel OPEC. Saudi oil industry figures seen by Reuters showed the kingdom estimated direct use of

fuel for ower eneration to rise to 540 000 b d this ear from 403 000 b d last ear. Usin more crude to enerate

WSYO

, , .

electricity allows the kingdom to utilise fresh output from a major new oilfield while holding firm to its OPEC

commitments to curb exports. It also helps the kingdom meet stricter environment rules. Although sitting on the

world's biggest oil and gas reserves, Saudi Arabia is struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising power demand as

petrodollars have fueled a region-wide economic boom as well as rapid population growth. And the kingdom is

presently weighing up nuclear options which it sees as a good option for power generation and desalination despite

the recent crisis in Japan, Alawaji said.

NThe monetary policy will continue to be tight to curb high inflation, the prime minister's top economic adviser said on

Friday, forecasting headline inflation to ease to 7.5 percent in March. "The inflation rate continues to be high and

therefore the monetary policy will have to remain tight," C. Rangarajan, chairman of the prime minister's Economic

Advisory Council, told. The RBI has raised policy rates eight times in the last 12 months as headline inflation stays

way above its comfort level of around 5 percent. The bank has warned of more inflationary pressures, prompting

analysts to expect further rounds of monetary tightening this year. He also said the current account deficit in

2010/11 would be only slightly above 2.5 percent of GDP and expected capital inflows of around $60 billion in the

year would be enough to finance it.

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8/8

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share tips expert commodity report 28032011

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