share tips expert commodity report 08042011

8/6/2019 Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 08042011

1/8

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Friday, April 08, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

GOLD 21141 21262 21126 21177 0.05

SILVER 57699 58083 57568 57934 0.39

GOLD 1458.7 1466.05 1455.75 1465.05 0.44

SILVER 39.58 39.98 39.51 39.89 0.73

PLATINUM 1780 1786.74 1771 1785.5 0.32

Bullion rose on inflation worries and expectations that the

European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2008 would

weaken the dollar but a strong earthquake that shook

Japan pressured prices.SPOT $

MCX


CRUDE 4801 4890 4798 4880 1.76

N.GAS 184.4 185.1 179.3 180.5 -2.11

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices jumped amid uncertainties about supply

in Libya, the Middle East and Nigeria. Natural gas ended

down dropping to the lowest level in three-weeks after

the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural

MCX

CRUDE 108.67 110.44 108.23 110.3 1.499954


gas inventories fell less-than-expected last week.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

Base metal ended up as investors once again ignored an

-

MCX

. . . .

ZINC 107.5 109.55 107.3 108.6 0.87

NICKEL 1176.9 1214 1174.5 1198.6 2.01

LEAD 125.65 126.65 124.55 125.65 -0.04

ALUMINIUM 117.6 118.7 117.3 117.95 0.04

COPPER 9706.5 9795 9670.25 9794 0.97 1500

ZINC 2455 2470 2443 2467.5 0.12 -150

in- ine interest rate i e an continue to et on t e

global economic recovery. Markets barely flinched after

the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time

since July 2008 by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.

LME STOCKLM E

COPPER

ZINC

442375

734825. .

NICKEL 27000 2685 26998 27279 1.03 -1164

LEAD 2793 2830 2790 2830 0.57 -275

ALUMINIUM 2673 2830 2673 2684 0.15 -4525

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX

19693.4 5913.1 2332.88 1333.44 8489.33 12409.49 9704.62 3017.29 2132.68 24420.99 75.24

NICKEL

LEAD

ALUMINIUM

121752

278125

4584475

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

0.52 0.47 0.02 -0.16 -0.22 -0.14 1.13 0.31 0.5 0.57 -0.46

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2/8

OPEN

21141

HIGH

LOW

21126

0.05

21262

% CNG

VOLUME

CLOSE

21177

FUTUR

E

11

10886

RE CNG

27510

OI

INTRADAY LEVELS

X

GOLD

Gold hardly moved yesterday traded in the range and closed at 21177 that is up by +0.05% after

P.P. 21188

SUP 1 RES 1

21115 21251

SUP 2 RES 2

21052 21324

SUP 3 RES 3

20979 21387

MC

,problem and global inflation. However, an interest-rate hike in euro zone and a higher dollar curbed

rise. Market expected gold market got support from deepened concerns over debt problem in

Europe, as Portugal is set to seek a bailout from EU after the nation's political crisis pushed

borrowing costs to record levels and forced it to become third country in the euro region in need of

rescue. The precious market was also propped up by news that an earthquake hit Japan's

devastated northeast coast on Thursday. Now gold is getting support at 21115 and below could see

a test of 21052 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21251, a move above could see

prices testing 21324.

57699

HIGH

58083

57568

OPEN

LOW

UR

E

OI

17241

71700

0.39

VOLUME

RE CNG

57934

% CNG

VERFU

P.P. 57862

SUP 1 RES 1

57640 58155

SUP 2 RES 2

INTRADAY LEVELSSilver spot at $39.80, 20 off from $40. At 31 year high; highest level since when the Hunt Brothers

tried to corner the market in 1980, bullion got support from deepened concerns over debt problem

in the Europe, as Portugal is set to seek a bailout from the European Union after the nation's political

crisis pushed borrowing costs to record levels and forced it to become the third country in the euro

region in need of a rescue. The strength in dollar also weighed on the market. Silver could rise to a

-

226

MCXS

I

57347 58377

SUP 3 RES 3

57125 58670

Page No. 2

new g a er o ngs rose o an a - me g as n a on worr es ngere . ares ver rus

said its holdings hit another record at 11,192.80 tonnes by April 7 from 11,162.45 tonnes on April 4.

Now silver is getting support at 57640 and below could see a test of 57347 level, and resistance is

now likely to be seen at 58155, a move above could see prices testing 58377.

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3/8

4801

HIGH

OPEN

4880

% CNG

1.76

VOLUME

4890

LOW

4798CLOSE

FUTURE

18291

RE CNG

86

INTRADAY LEVELSCrude oil yesterday broken the tight range and shoot up by 1.76% and finally settled at 4880 and

- -

142960

OI

CRUDE

P.P. 4856

SUP 1 RES 1

4822 4914

SUP 2 RES 2

4764 4948

SUP 3 RES 3

4730 5006

- -from tensions in Libya and the Middle East. Oil prices were also supported by OPEC member

Nigeria's decision to postpone parliamentary polls in some areas. Rebels fighting to overthrow

Muammar Gaddafi said five of their fighters were killed when NATO planes mistakenly bombed a

rebel tank column near the contested port of Brega in eastern Libya. Libya accused Britain of

damaging an oil pipeline in an air strike, hours after rebels said government attacks had halted

production of oil they hope to sell to finance their uprising. Now crude is getting support at 4822 and

below could see a test of 4764 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4914, a move above

could see prices testing 4948.

MC

HIGH

434.2LOW

426.15TUR

EOPEN

427.15

RE CNG

% CNG

1.03

VOLUME

117292

OI

20451

432

PPERFU

P.P. 430.8

SUP 1 RES 1

427.4 435.4

SUP 2 RES 2

4.45

INTRADAY LEVELSCopper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.03% up at 432 hitting its priciest level

in about two weeks, as investors once again ignored an in-line interest rate hike and continued to

bet on the global economic recovery. Markets barely flinched after the European Central Bank raised

rates for the first time since July 2008 by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. Slight pressure had been

witnessed in their session highs after an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 shook the northeast of Japan

'MCXC

O

422.7 438.8

SUP 3 RES 3

419.3 443.5

an a sunam warn ng was ssue or e coas , a rea y evas a e y as mon s qua e an

tsunami. For today's session market is looking to take support at 427.4, a break below could see a

test of 422.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 435.4, a move above could see

prices testing 438.8.

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4/8

107.5

HIGH

OPEN

108.6

% CNG

0.87

VOLUME

109.55

LOW

107.3CLOSE

UTUR

E

7816

RE CNG

0.95

INTRADAY LEVELSZinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.87% up at 108.6 tracking LME zinc

24691

OI

X

ZINC

P.P. 108.5

SUP 1 RES 1

107.4 109.7

SUP 2 RES 2

106.2 110.7

SUP 3 RES 3

105.2 111.9

pr ces w c move e ween , - , m ur ng e s an ra ng ours. n e

evening, European central bank announced to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to

1.25%, the first interest rate hike since July 2008. But LME zinc prices rose to USD 2,470-

2,480/mt, with prices once touching USD 2,486/mt. Since a 7.4 magnitude earthquake

occurred in east Japan, LME zinc prices lost some gains, with prices finally closing at USD

2,465/mt, up USD 24/mt, above the 5-day moving average. For today's session market is

looking to take support at 107.4, a break below could see a test of 106.2 and where as

resistance is now likely to be seen at 109.7, a move above could see prices testing 110.7.

MC

HIGH

1214LOW

1174.5UR

EOPEN

1176.9

RE CNG

% CNG

2.01

VOLUME

64275

OI

7920

1198.6

KELFU

P.P. 1196

SUP 1 RES 1

1177 1217

SUP 2 RES 2

24.1

INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 2.01% up at 1198.6 tracking LME nickel

for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,500/mt and closed at USD 27,000/mt, up by USD

455/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 27,400/mt and the lowest price at USD

26,351/mt. LME base metals largely ended with gains on Thursday due to strong demand signals,

but a new earthquake in Japan pared certain gains. LME nickel prices extended Wednesday's strong

upward momentum overnight. LME nickel prices largely fluctuated stably during the Asian tradingMCXN

I

1156 1235

SUP 3 RES 3

1138 1256

hours, but surged to the highest of USD 27,400/mt during the Asian trading hours, with prices

closing above all day moving averages. For today's session market is looking to take support at

1177.4, a break below could see a test of 1156.2 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at

1216.9, a move above could see prices testing 1235.2.



5/8

OPEN

117.6

HIGHR

% CNG

0.04

VOLUME

118.7

LOW

117.3CLOSE

117.95

UMFU

T

4533

OI

1906

RE CNG

Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.04% up at 117.95 tracking LME

0.05

INTRADAY LEVELSLUMINI

P.P. 118.0

SUP 1 RES 1

117.3 118.7

SUP 2 RES 2

116.6 119.4

SUP 3 RES 3

115.9 120.1

a um num pr ces w c opene a , m , an a er s reng ene suppor e y soar ng cru eoil prices and a weaker US dollar caused by the European Central Banks interest rate increase, with

the highest level reported at USD 2,694.3/mt, again setting a new high. At the end of trading, the

7.4 magnitude aftershock in northeast Japan triggered panic sell-offs in the market, dragging down

LME aluminum prices to close at USD 2,680/mt, up USD 7.5/mt or 0.28% compared with the

previous trading day. Later, the US Labor Department announced that the initial jobless claims fell to

382k last week, down 10k from a week earlier. The better-than-expected employment data helped

push up the US dollar index, but later a major aftershock measuring 7.4 magnitude hit northeast

Japan on Thursday evening, triggering large-scale sell-offs in the market. For today's session market

MCX

LOW

TURE

OPEN

184.4

HIGH

185.1

179.3

15148

RE CNG

OI

VOLUME

34199

-2.11

180.5

.GAS

F % CNG

P.P. 181.6

SUP 1 RES 1

178.2 184.0

SUP 2 RES 2

Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.11% down at 180.5 for a fifth

day, dropping to the lowest level in three-weeks after the US EIA said natural gas inventories fell

less-than-expected last week. It earlier fell to USD4.034 per mBtu, the lowest price since March 17.

The contract traded at USD4.116 prior to the release of the EIA data. The U.S. EIA said in its weekly

report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 1 fell by 45 bcf, after rising by 12

bcf in the preceding week. Market had expected U.S. natural gas storage to fall by 50 bcf. According

-3.8

INTRADAY LEVELS

CXNA

175.8 187.4

SUP 3 RES 3

172.4 189.8

to the data, total U.S. natural gas storage in the week ended April 1 stood at 1.579 trillion cubic feet.

Stocks were 86 bcf less than last year at this time and 10 bcf above the five-year average of 1.569

trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Prices were also pressured as forecasts showed warmer-than-

normal temperatures in the US next week, dampening demand expectations for the heating fuel. For

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6/8

DAILY SPR EAD IN SILVER - MCXDAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX

ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT

JUNE 21177 294 589 MAY 57934 760 1526

AUG 21471 295 JULY 58694 766OCT 21766 SEPT 59460

Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday

ended at 294, we have seen yesterday that the gold

market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.05%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 290 - 302.

Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday

ended at 760, we have seen yesterday that the silver

market had traded with a positive node and settled

0.39% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 711 -

760.

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE

APRIL 4880 54 102 APRIL 432 5.95

MAY 4934 48 JUNE 437.95

JUNE 4982

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay

ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude

market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.76%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 59.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX

Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay

ended at 5.95, we have seen yesterday that the copper

market had traded with a positive node and settled

1.03% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.95 -

6.

DAILY SPR EAD IN NICKEL - MCXARKET

MONTH MONTH

APRIL 108.6 1.15 APRIL 1198.6 8.2

MAY 109.75 MAY 1206.8

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday

ended at 1.15, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a positive node and settled 0.87%

up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.2.

Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday

ended at 8.20, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled

2.01% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.00 -

8.2.PREAD

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 180.5 5.2 APRIL 1043.3 -54.5

MAY 185.7 MAY 988.8

S read between natural as APR & MAY contracts S read between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts

DAILY SP READ IN MENTHOL - MCXDAILY SPREAD IN N AT. GAS - MCX

yesterday ended at 5.20, we have seen yesterday that the

natural gas market had traded with a negative node and

settled -2.11% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of 4.9 - 5.3.

yesterday ended at -54.50, we have seen yesterday that

the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node

and settled 0.33% up. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -64.3 to -54.5.



7/8

DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s

12:30am USD 4.8B 4.4B

DATA

Consumer Credit m/ mL

11:30am EUR 13.3B 11.8B

12:15pm EUR 0 -13.4B

Day 2 EUR 0 0

7:30pm USD 0.011 0.011

7:45pm USD 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0

0

0

Fr i

French Gov Budget Balance

ECOFIN MeetingsWholesale Inventories m/ m

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

German Trade Balance

ONOMI

C

DATA

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

EC 0

0

0

0

E

Wheat crops in China, the worlds biggest producer, and the US are threatened by continuing drought as La Nina

persists, weather forecasters said. The countries will be the last to emerge from the dry weather linked to La Nina, a

cooling of the Pacific Ocean, and the conditions may linger for two more months. Sustained dry conditions in China

and the US will parch crops that have already deteriorated in Texas and Oklahoma and that are developing in

northern China, BWS and DTN said. Weather is going to be key, Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays

Capital, said in an interview in Singapore yesterday. Even if we have a move-up in acreage, it doesnt automatically

translate to an increase in production.

CA

N

UCopper's worst start in a decade may extend into this quarter as stockpiles expand, Chinese imports plunge and

Japan reels from its nuclear disaster, before rebounding to a record when shortages take hold. Stockpiles tracked by

the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 85% since the end of September, deterring imports. Analysts expect a drop inpurchases by Japan after the earthquake and tsunami on March 11 closed factories and caused the worst nuclear

accident in a quarter century. That trend should reverse because the country, the fourth-biggest copper user, will

need to rebuild, draining inventories as growth in mine output slows. Prices fell 1.8% in the first quarter, the worst

WSYO

for the period since 2001, and futures traded on the London Metal Exchange anticipate little change through the end

of the year, with the December contract at $9,376. Inventories monitored by exchanges in London, New York and

Shanghai climbed 19% to about 677,700 tonne this year, close to the highest since June. China will expand 9.5% this

year, from 10.3% in 2010, still more than five times the pace of the euro region, according to the median estimates

in Bloomberg surveys of as many as 19 economists. "Seasonally speaking, April is a strong month for copper

demand," said Leon Westgate, an analyst at Standard Bank in London. "If April fails to live up to its reputation as a

strong month in terms of demand, then the metal's immediate outlook is looking rather bleak." The events in Japan

and the Middle East mean that metals prices may stall in the next several months before rebounding, a team of

analysts led by London-based Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs said in a report on March 29.

N

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent on Thursday, announcing its first

hike since July 2008 to counter firming inflation pressures in the 17-country euro zone. The euro was steady after the

decision, which ECB policymakers had flagged heavily in advance. The increase in the ECB's benchmark refinancing

rate marks a gentle exit from the central bank's policy response to the global financial crisis. It had held the refi rate

at a record low 1.0 percent since May 2009. The ECB also raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent,


and increased its marginal lending rate by the same amount to 2.0 percent.


8/8

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reliable, which are publicly available. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and is meant for the intended

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share tips expert commodity report 08042011

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