shale gas in the united states: recent developments and outlook
TRANSCRIPT
Shale Gas in the United States:Recent Developments and Outlook
2Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 2
Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Source: U.S. Geological Service, Mineral Management Service, private data, EIA.
technically recoverable gas resourcestrillion cubic meters
Unproved shale gas &coal-bed methane
Unproved conventional(including tight gas and Alaska*)
Proved reserves(all types & locations)
* Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect North Slope resources not included in previously published documentation.
3Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 3
Since 1997, more than 12,000 gas wells completed in the Barnett shale
4Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 4
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
1
2
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5
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8
Vertical well productionHorizontal well production
Vertical well countHorizontal well count
Source: EIA
gas production billion cubic meters
wells drilled thousands
The result has been an accelerating increase in production from the Barnett field
5Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 5
U.S. shale gas plays
Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other shale formations in the U.S.
6Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 6
Drilling activity on the rise, particularly in the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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200
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Fayetteville Haynesville
Woodford Barnett
Marcellus Eagle Ford
Source: Smith International
rigs drilling for gas
7Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 7
Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production from the major plays has increased 60-fold
Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2010 estimated)
shale gas production billion cubic meters
0102030405060708090
100110120130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Barnett Fayetteville Woodford
Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford
8Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 8
Shale gas production continued to rise rapidly over the past year
billion cubic meters per day
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Eagleford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett Shale
Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting
9Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 9
Shale Gas in the Long-term Outlook
10Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 10
0
125
250
375
500
625
750
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Alaska
Non-associated offshore
ProjectionsHistory
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Net imports
Non-associated onshore
Shale gas
U.S. gas productionbillion cubic meters
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in other supply to meet consumption growth and reduce imports
11Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 11
Over the past 5 years, EIA has significantly lowered its projection of LNG imports into the U.S.
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50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
History Projections
AEO2005
AEO2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
U.S. net LNG importsbillion cubic meters
12Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 12
0
30
60
90
120
150
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
No new U.S. shale scenario
Reference scenario
High U.S. shale scenario
Shale gas production significantly affects projected U.S. gas imports, and could have similar effects in other gas importing countries
total U.S. natural gas imports billion cubic meters
ProjectionsHistory
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010
13Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010 13
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