session 5 - ignitor bootcamp - 3 july 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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After Bootcamp
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Getting customers
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Startup assumptions and risks
1. CAN YOU… find early adoptors?
2. CAN YOU… sell early adoptors?
3. CAN YOU… build a product they love?
4. CAN YOU… get lots of customers?
?
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Getting lots of customers
You have found a predictable and cost-effective way to acquire new
customers
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When you start…
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If you succeed (cltv > 3x cac and is recovered in 12 months)
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Example 1: dropbox $200 to a little over free
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Warning!!! groupspaces could never attract
customers at a low enough cost to scale
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Series1
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
365 days
2500 days
Do you want to waste 6 years?
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What to test?
1. Paid acquisition (Google, YouTube, Facebook, traditional ads)
2. Virality (Word of mouth, viral tools, raving fans)
3. SEO (Website, content marketing)
4. Sales (Inbound, outbound)
5. Retail (Own stores, partner stores)
6. Distribution partners (Franchise, agents, wholesalers)
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Startup Science
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? ? ?
The first sale
What predicts success?
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1 Planning doesn’t predict
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Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)
“new ventures launched with formal written business plans do not outperform ones
launched without them.”
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Business Plan?
Source: Bhide (2000)
21%
79%
Yes!No!
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No!
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No!
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No!No!
No!
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Doh!?!
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2 Opportunity predicts
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Source: Shane (2009)
Industry Number of Inc 500 firms
Firm starts Percent of Starts
Pulp mills 6 33 18.182Computer and office equipment 99 2359 4.197Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts 2 60 3.333Nonferrous rolling and drawing 14 581 2.410Railroad car rental 3 136 2.206Measuring and controlling devices 49 2482 1.974Paper mills 3 125 2.400Search and navigation devices 6 310 1.935General industrial machinery 26 2173 1.197Photographic equipment and supplies 7 646 1.084Manifold business forms 3 281 1.068Household appliances 4 390 1.026Electrical industrial apparatus 11 1080 1.019Legal services 10 129207 0.008Eating and drinking places 34 494731 0.007Carpentry and floor work contractors 4 66383 0.006Real estate operators 5 90042 0.006Hotels and motels 2 39177 0.005Painting and paper contractors 2 43987 0.005Retail bakeries 1 22165 0.005Grocery stores 5 112473 0.004Used merchandise stores 1 24442 0.004Automotive repair shops 5 124725 0.004Beauty shops 3 79081 0.004Residential care 1 27710 0.004Videotape rental 1 27793 0.004
Industry choice vs. inc 500
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Computer and Office Equipment (1/25)
Eating and Drinking Places (1/14,550)
Source: Shane (2009)
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Computer and officeequipment
582 succeed
Eating and drinking places
1 succeeds
Source: Shane (2009)
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Correlation between number of startups in an industry and failure rate
0.77
Source: Shane (2009)
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3 Team predicts
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Series1 13.1%
54.2.%
Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
+
>
5-year failure rate?
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90%
10%
1 founder
2 or more founders
Source: FinScope (2010)
Team size south africa
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4 Advice seeking predicts
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Series1 45%
80%
No advice
Source: Watson (2007)
Advice from accountants 3+/yr
3-year survival rate
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Source: Pretorius & Le Roux (2011)
Successive entrepreneurship and no learning
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Source: Pretorius & Le Roux (2011)
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5 Industry experience
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75%
25%
Source: Fresser and Willard (1990)
Inc 100 entrepreneurs with industry experience
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Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
Series1 25.5 %Industry Experience
No Industry Experience 54.5 %
5-year survival and industry experience
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Strong Team
(1) 3 + members
(2) 50% joint experience
(3) 3 year industry experience
(19%)
(73%)
Source: Eisenhardt & Schoovenhoven (1990)
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6 Traction
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“I'd just go sell it. I don't believe in market research. Somebody once told
me the only thing you need is a customer."
Source: Sarasvathy (2007)
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Source: Reynolds (1987)
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Source: Bhide (2000)
82%
8% 10%Somewhat Involved
Main Salesperson
Heavily Involved
Founders involvement in selling
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Startup assumptions and risks
1. Find early adopters
2. Sell early adoptors
3. Build something customers love
4. Get lots of customers
?
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7 Pre-mature scaling
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Avoid Pre-mature Scaling
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AMAR BHIDE
Idea BuildNo
Facts
Don’t skip the assumption testing
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paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
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paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
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74%of high growth internet start ups
fail due to premature scaling.
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
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20times faster than startups that
scale prematurely
Startups that scale properly grow about
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
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Startup assumptions and risks
1. Find early adopters
2. Sell early adoptors
3. Build something customers love
4. Get lots of customers
?
Do this last!
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8 Community
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Observational learning
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Mayans
Hutu
Greeks
Romans
Egyptians
Vikings
Khoisan
Persians
tribes
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YPO
MBAs
Gamers
Sports centers
The Sharks
KIPPRhodes Rowing
Music Scools
tribes
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7000 inc 500 companies assessed
9 best performers chosen for a study
4 belonged to YPO
The breakthrough company
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“their willingness to support, mentor and fund each other to success. In my humble opinion, this is what is really valuable about YC”
- Dave McClure, 500startups founder
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9 Values
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What are values?
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How importance or precious something is to a person
Values Definition
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Time:
How does a person spend their time?
Show
Energy:
What activities gets the person excited?
Show
Money:
How do they spend their money?
Show
Determining Values
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Time:
How does a person spend their time?
Business
Energy:
What activities gets the person excited?
Business
Money:
How do they spend their money?
Business
Elon Musk Values
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8:00: Heads to SpaceX’s office in his Model S.
How does Elon Musk spend his time?
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8:00: Morning phone calls. Marketing VP, journalists, job candidates or conference calls
10:45: Week status review on the Falcon 9
How does Elon Musk spend his time?
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12:30: Propulsion schedule meeting
12:30: Building operations meeting
How does Elon Musk spend his time?
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16:30 Visits the rocket factory
How does Elon Musk spend his time?
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19:00 Interviewed by Sarah Lacy from Pando Daily
Attends premier of a film he has produced
How does Elon Musk spend his time?
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How does Elon Musk spend his money?
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Time:
How does a person spend their time?
Business
Energy:
What activities gets the person excited?
Business
Money:
How do they spend their money?
Business
Richard Branson Values
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“A business has to be involving, it has to be fun”
“My general attitude to life is to enjoy every minute of every day. I never do anything without a feeling of, ‘Oh God,
I’ve got to do this today”
What gives Richard Branson energy?
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What does Richard Branson spend his money on?
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Time:
How does a person spend their time?
Business
Energy:
What activities gets the person excited?
Business
Money:
How do they spend their money?
Business
Richard Branson Values
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AMAR BHIDE
Values predict your future!
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AMAR BHIDE
Becoming a great investor
Business and investing
Family and friends
BaseballSeries1
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AMAR BHIDE
Eating
Movies
Partying?
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3
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AMAR BHIDE
Business
Career
Investing?
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3
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10 Vision
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Source: Barringer et al. (2005)
54%
80%
FASTGROWTH
SLOWGROWTH
Growth commitment?
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“We will create products that become pervasive around the world… We will be
the first Japanese company to go into the US market and distribute directly.. Fifty
years from now, our brand will be as well know as any in the world.”
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“I will build a motor car for the great multitude… It will be so low in price that no man making a good salary
will be unable to own one. The horse will have disappeared from our
highways, the automobile will be taken for granted.”
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Action list1 Validate you have a real opportunity
2 Build a team
3 Seek advice
4 Develop your industry knowledge
5 Don’t scale until P/M fit
6 Get traction
7 Join a community
8 Value your business
9 Have a vision
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Pitching Your Business
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2-minute pitch
1 What does your company do?
2 How big is your market?
3 How much traction do you have?
4 How many customers did you talk to?
5 What did you learn this weekend?
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2-minute pitch
1 What does your company do? Ignitor helps entrepreneurs succeed using coaching and mentoring. 2 How big is your market? We are targeting the R10B that is spent on business support in SA 3 How much traction do you have? We have landed 4 major sponsors and helped 400 entrepreneurs 4 How many customers did you talk to?
5 What did you learn this weekend?
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Last customer interview & Prepare pitch
• Last customer interviews (B-to-B: 15; B-to-C 30)
• Prepare a 2-minute pitch
• Test your pitch on 5 people in the room (and phone your mum)
• Pitching begins at 16:00
1 What does your company do?
2 How big is your market?
3 How much traction do you have?
4 How many customers did you talk to?
5 What did you learn this weekend?