seismic loss and downtime estimates of existing tall buildings and strategies for increased...

CarlosMolinaHutt,PEMichaelWillford(Arup),Ibbi Almufti(Arup)&GregDeierlein (Stanford)

OpenSees DaysPortugalFriday,July4,2014

SeismicLossandDowntimeEstimatesforExistingTallBuildingsandStrategiesfor

IncreasedResilience

DISCLAIMERLS‐DYNA

236

• Introduction‐ ResearchContext

• ResearchAimsandObjectives

•Methodology

• CaseStudy:SanFrancisco,CA

• Results

• FutureWork

• Questions

OUTLINE

336

INTRODUCTION– RESEARCHCONTEXT

‐ Tallbuildingsandsocio‐economicactivity‐ PerformanceBasedSeismicDesign(PBSD)‐ TallbuildingdesignpriortoPBSD‐ Resilience

ViewofdowntownSanFranciscofromTwinPeaks

436

AssesstheSeismicPerformanceofExistingTallBuildings:

• CommunicatePerformancetoDecisionMakers

• IndividualBuildings:‐ Directeconomiclosses?‐ Downtime?‐ Strategiesforenhancedperformance?‐ Cost‐benefitanalysis?

• ClosureofSurroundingAreas

RESEARCHAIMSANDOBJECTIVES

Christchurch,NewZealandRedZoneCordon,April2011

Source:canterburyearthquake.org.nz

536

1. ExistingTallBuildingDatabase(ArchetypeBuilding)

2. GISMapping(RepresentativeSiteSelection)

3. SeismicHazardandGroundMotions

4. NumericalModelforNLRHA

5. BuildingPerformanceModel(LossesandDowntime)

6. StrategiesforIncreasedResilience

7. Results

METHODOLOGY

636







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

736

CASESTUDY:SANFRANCISCO,CA

1. ExistingTallBuildingDatabase(ArchetypeBuilding)53 Hilton Financial District 111 30 1971 750 Kearny41 Two Embarcadero Center [Embarcadero Center] 126 30 1974 255 Clay42 595 Market Street 125 30 1979 595 Market39 Providian Financial Building 127 30 1981 201 Mission40 Three Embarcadero Cent.. [Embarcadero Center] 126 31 1977 155 Clay37 JPMorgan Chase Building 128 31 2002 560 Mission36 Russ Building 133 32 1927 235 Montgomery82 The Summit 96 32 1965 999 Green33 One California 134 32 1969 1 California49 The Westin St. Francis.. [The Westin St. Francis] 120 32 1972 335 Powell64 Renaissance Parc 55 107 32 1984 55 Cyril Magnin68 InterContinental San Francisco 104 32 2008 868 Howard26 100 Pine Center 145 33 1972 100 Pine28 333 Market Street 144 33 1979 333 Market80 W Hotel 96 33 1999 181 3rd30 555 Mission Street 140 33 2008 555 Mission29 Hartford Building 142 34 1964 650 California23 Pacific Gas & Electric Building 150 34 1971 77 Beale27 Bechtel Building 145 34 1978 45 Fremont52 Westin San Francisco -- Market Street 114 34 1984 50 3rd45 Embarcadero West [Embarcadero Center] 123 34 1989 275 Battery58 Grand Hyatt San Francisco 108 35 1972 345 Stockton24 50 California Street 148 37 1972 50 California65 The Infinity, Phase I [The Infinity] 107 37 2008 300 Spear17 McKesson Plaza 161 38 1969 1 Post18 425 Market Street 160 38 1973 425 Market15 Shaklee Terraces 164 38 1979 444 Market19 Telesis Tower 152 38 1982 1 Montgomery16 First Market Tower 161 39 1973 525 Market34 San Francisco Marriott 133 39 1989 55 4th8 Chevron Tower [Market Center] 175 40 1975 575 Market47 Four Seasons Hotel 121 40 2001 735 Market38 The Paramount 128 40 2002 680 Mission31 The Infinity, Phase II [The Infinity] 137 41 2009 300 Spear25 St. Regis San Francisc.. [St. Regis San Francisc..] 148 42 2005 125 3rd

RANK BY HEIGHT

NAME HEIGHT (m) STORIES YEAR COMPLETED ADDRESS

836



01020304050

1900-1910

1911-1920

1921-1930

1931-1940

1941-1950

1951-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2009

Num

ber o

f

B

uild

ings

Bui

lt

Year Range

0

10

20

30

40

< 20 20-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 > 45

Num

ber o

f B

uild

ings

Number of Stories

Steel MFOther SystemUnknown System

936



1036



1136



1236







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

1336



ExistingTallBuildings

SanFrancisco,CASource:GoogleMaps

1436







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

1536



Source:USGS

1636



0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

SA(g)

Period(s)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

SA(g)

Period(s)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

SA(g)

Period(s)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

SA(g)

Period(s)

1736







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

1836



Splice

Column

PanelZone

Beams

1936


4. NumericalModelforNLRHA(Component:Beams)

2036


4. NumericalModelforNLRHA(Component:Columns)

2136


4. NumericalModelforNLRHA:

PanelZones ColumnSplices

2236

Source:Bruneau andMahin (1990)


4. NumericalModelforNLRHA(Results)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0% 1% 2%

IDR-X

TransientTransientResidualResidual

0% 1% 2%

IDR-Y

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-X (m/s)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-Y (m/s)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-X (g)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-Y (g)

2336

StoreyLevel







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

2436


5. BuildingPerformanceModel

Source:ATC‐58

2536


5. BuildingPerformanceModel(Loss)

Source:Araya‐Letelier,G.andMirandaE.(2012).

• DamageState1(DS1):Minordamagedthatcanberepairedbypatching.

• DamageState2(DS2):Severecrackingrequiringgypsumboardreplacement.

• DamageState3(DS3):Severedamagerequiringreplacementofentirepartition.

2636


5. BuildingPerformanceModel(Loss)

Source:ATC‐58

2736


5. BuildingPerformanceModel(Downtime)

Source:AdaptedfromAlmufti,I.AndWillford,M.(2013)

EarthquakeOccurrence ImpedingFactors BuildingRepairs Re‐occupancy

EarthquakeOccurrence

UtilitiesImpedingFactors

BuildingRepairs FunctionalRecovery

2836







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

2936



‐StructuralElasticSpineBaseIsolation

‐Non‐structuralStandardEnhanced

‐RiskManagementStandardEnhanced Source:Araya‐Letelier,G.andMirandaE.(2012).

3036

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0% 1% 2%

IDR-X


0% 1% 2%

IDR-Y

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-X (m/s)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-Y (m/s)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-X (g)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-Y (g)

StoreyLevel

(ElasticSpine)(BaseIsolation)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0% 1% 2%

IDR-X


0% 1% 2%

IDR-Y

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-X (m/s)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

V-Y (m/s)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-X (g)

0.0 0.5 1.0

A-Y (g)







7. Results

METHODOLOGY

3136

LossandDowntimeEstimatesRESULTS

3236

LossandDowntimeEstimatesRESULTS

3336

Egress, 31%

Façade, 25%

MEP, 6%

Office Fitouts,

21%

Structure, 16%

[ Expected Losses: $35M ]

Egress, 21%

Façade, 31%

MEP, 8%

Office Fitouts,

26%

Structure, 14%


Egress, 6%

Façade, 33%

MEP, 12%

Office Fitouts,

20%

Structure, 29%


Egress, 53%

Façade, 4%

MEP, 4%

Office Fitouts,

10%

Structure, 29%


Egress, 44%

Façade, 5%MEP,

7%

Office Fitouts,

15%

Structure, 30%


Egress, 15%

Façade, 9%

MEP, 1%

Office Fitouts,

3%

Structure, 72%


Outstandingtasks:

• IndividualBuildings:‐ Directeconomiclosses?‐ Downtime?‐ Strategiesforenhancedperformance?‐ Cost‐benefitanalysis?

• ClosureofSurroundingAreas:‐ FunctionofStructuralPerformance?‐ Visualizetheimpactofenhancedperformancestrategies?

FUTUREWORK

3436

3536

HAPPY4TH OFJULY

Questions

3636

seismic loss and downtime estimates of existing tall buildings and strategies for increased...

Engineering

market street

mission29 hartford building

mission36 russ building

beale27 bechtel building

fremont52 westin san

market tower

performance model losses

california street