inverse emission estimates for europe using tall tower observations and the comet inverse model

Inverse emission estimates for Europe using tall tower observations and the COMET inverse model

Alex Vermeulen1, Gerben Pieterse1,21: ECN2: IMAU

8th Transcom meetingPurdue Univ.; April 24, 2007

ECN and Cabauw observations


Cabauw CBW The Netherlands (ECN)Height: 200m AGLBase: -2m ASLLon:0456Lat:5158Levels:20m, 60m, 120m, 200mLU:Grassland, crops


CBW CO2 trend 2000-2006


Flux and concentration vertical gradients Cabauw Casso-Torralba et al, 2007 (in prep)


Measurements, Modelling, SRMs and Inversion

Independent verification of bottom up estimates: UNFCCC, process models

It seems so easy: Subtract the influence of meteorology on the concentration, what remains is the influence of emissions

BUT: the atmosphere is a very efficient mixer, most of the signal is lost in 1-2 days of travel

SO: measure close to the sources at high temporal resolution, extend in the mixed layer to reduce the very local influence

Current global network not sufficient

Not many stations, but high frequency measurements and lots of noise in atmosphere and models

Mathematically: Ill posed problem, we need constraints


The COMET modelTrajectory model, offline meteorologyCOMET model, 0.5o windfields, Flextra trajectories ECMWF meteorology, MLH Crit. Richardson schemeCH4 fluxes from METDAT (Berdowski et al, 1998): 3-hourly time-res. at 10 horiz. resolutionMixed layer bulk concentration Hourly 144-hr backward trajectoriesCH4 meas vs. model: R2=0.84 during summer, bias=0 ppb, RMSE=115 ppb (6%)Full year: R2=0.72

Vermeulen et al, ACPD, 8727, 2006


Modeling framework at ECN

ForwardCalculations

Spatial Aggregation

InverseCalculationsdXk=Cklel

Trajectory dataLPDM dataInventory dataFlux modelConcentration dataFlux data?

Recursive Spatial Aggregation

LPDM model(FLEXPART1)

COMETmodel(FLEXTRA1)

(Co) Variance OptimizationConcentrationsConcentrationsFluxesSynthetic data1 Stohl, A. (1998): Computation, accuracy and applications of trajectories - a review and bibliography, Atm. Env., 32, 947-966

Deposition fluxesConcentration enhancements

SRMCalculations


Diurnal variation get lost after 24 hoursModel: COMET; Background CO2 levels from TM5 (Krol, pers comm).

Chart3

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