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Developments in the world of inteligence between 14-23 May 2010

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  • This week is overshadowed by the forced resignation of the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The rest of the world has also seen some interesting intelligence developments. The next few weeks will determine whether pres Obama will appoint a new Director for National Intelligence or perhaps order a new overhaul of the intelligence community in the US. A new DNI will most certainly be subjected to the same systemic fault lines and political bickering as Dennis Blair, who resigned with effect 28 May 2010, making a re-look at the dynamics of the intelligence community in the US necessary. A new DNI will be the fourth intelligence coordinator since the DNIs establishment in 2004 (recommended by the 9/11 Commission), but he has little authority over the 16 Agencies that constitute the security apparatus in the US. It will be interesting to see whether the Obama government will use this opportunity to only reshuffle the deck seats or be brave enough to seek the advice of intelligence professionals on how to structure and lead a punch-drunk community. However, it is doubtful that any major changes will be made in this election year. This publication uses open and free sources and is distributed worldwide to decision-makers, analysts, academia and scholars. Interested in creating situational awareness and build environmental scanning capacity in your organisation? 4Knowledge can provide customised OSINT reports on your intelligence priorities. Contact dalene@4knowledge.co.za for more information. Most of this weeks news was summarised due to space constraints. If you want to read the original article please click on the hyperlinks.

    Dalene

    Reports from 14-23 May 2010 Page North America: 1. Blairs resignation may reflect inherent conflicts in job of

    intelligence chief 4. Dispute over France a factor in intelligence rift 4. The report that was the last straw 5. Who will be the next DNI? 7. Hoekstra: National security apparatus broken, dysfunctional, in

    disarray 7. Holder tightens grip on intelligence agencies 8. White House Names Deputy FBI Director as TSA chief 9. US appoints first cyber warfare general 9. Canada: Judge to decide if former soldier a spy Asia 10. As US says do more, Pakistan highlights own limitations 11. India: Police form 90 special squads to gather terror

    intelligence 11. India: spying case: Madhuri rejected marriage to handler 11. South/North Korea: US finds North Korea leader authorized

    attack on South 12. Taiwan/China: Ex-Taiwanese civilian spies break long silence 13. Clear spying charges, Seoul urged 13. No release for hikers jailed as American spies, says Iran Europe 14. EU summit on future European Intelligence Service 15. Draft national security strategy provides for Bulgarian CIA 16. Russia: FSB changes its approach to dealing with spies,

    Moscow experts say 17. Two suspected Libyan secret agents arrested in Berlin 17. Vladimir Putin laments Soviet Union ignoring his spy

    intelligence 18. France: Comment: Was Clotilde Reiss a French spy in Iran? 19. Report: French interior minister sues former spy over book 19. Comment: Does Germany need a National Security Council? 19. The 9th Conference of the Security Service of Ukraine &

    Federal Security Service of Russian federation delegations held in Odessa

    20. Italy expelled Moroccans on suspicion of Pope plot 21. UK spy agency probed over bombs Australia 22. Aus demands Israel withdraw embassy official over use of

    stolen passports Middle East 22. Saudi King slams intelligence leak 23. Israeli soldiers fall prey to Facebook spy 23. Lebanese arrested for spying for Israel Africa 24. Nigeria/US: statement issued by National Security Council

    spokesman Mike Hammer

    SA Intelligencer Number 78 14-23 May 2010

    Initiator: Johan Mostert Editor: Dalene Duvenage

    Contributions and enquiries dalene@4knowledge.co.za

    From the editor

  • 23 May 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 78

    2

    Uncertain future for the DNI Blair's resignation may reflect inherent conflicts in job of intelligence chief By Greg Miller and Walter Pincus Washington Post, May 22, 2010

    As the intelligence community was rebuilt after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, two additions were seen as crucial to addressing systemic breakdowns: a new director to force often-squabbling agencies to work together, and a counterterrorism center to connect threat data dots.

    But developments this week underscored the extent to which those two institutions have struggled to carry out their missions, and are increasingly seen as hobbled by their own structural flaws.

    The resignation of Dennis C. Blair as director of national intelligence Friday means the position will soon be turned over to a fourth occupant in little more than five years. Current and former U.S. intelligence officials said the job has come to be viewed as a thankless assignment -- lacking in authority, yet held to account for each undetected terrorist plot.

    "The DNI doesn't have any authority to make things happen," said Mark M. Lowenthal, a former senior CIA official and the chief executive of the Intelligence & Security Academy. "If you look at who we've had, we've been extremely lucky in the people who've accepted the job. Three of the brightest people I've ever met. But they can't make the job work. At a certain point, you have to ask yourself: Is it the job?"

    The DNI oversees 16 intelligence agencies, including the CIA. But the director has only partial budget authority over the sprawling bureaucracy he leads. Thus, some intelligence experts say, whoever holds the job will lack the influence envisioned when the office was created.

    The National Counterterrorism Center, established after the 2001 attacks to collate information from across agencies and analyze threats, is under the same scrutiny. Two narrowly averted terrorist attacks in the past five months have prompted criticism of the center, part of the Office of the DNI. A Senate report released this week concluded that the center was still "not organized adequately to

    fulfill its mission" six years after it was launched.

    The failings have caught the attention of the Obama administration. One of the first tasks given to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board when it was assembled in December was to seek ways to bridge the gap between the expectations and authorities in the

    intelligence director's job.

    Blair's colleagues acknowledged that he struggled with the political aspects of the position. But they said he was particularly frustrated by what he considered micromanagement from the White House and a lack of adequate budget and hiring authority.

    Early problems

    The leading candidate to replace Blair is James Clapper, a retired Air Force lieutenant general who has led two large intelligence agencies and currently serves as Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence.

    Clapper is capable of bringing "a sense of purpose, mission and identity" to the director position, said a former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official who worked closely with him. But, the former official said, "without some support from the president or structural change, you're not going to see a much different outcome."

    Admiral Dennis Blair

    North America

  • 23 May 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 78

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    Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents dalene@4knowledge.co.za

    Problems with the position have prompted a series of high-level candidates to turn it down. Among the first to do so was Robert M. Gates, now the secretary of defense. As a former CIA director, he opposed the legislation that established the DNI. U.S. officials acknowledged this week that they had approached former senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) about replacing Blair, but that Hagel made it clear he would decline.

    Creating a powerful intelligence director was one of the main recommendations of the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks. The commission's report called for the director position to be lodged inside the White House, but that provision was quickly dropped when Congress took up intelligence reform legislation.

    Congress also struggled to define what the director should be empowered to do. The law provides the authority to "develop and determine" the national intelligence budget, but the director merely "participates" in setting the spending for military intelligence programs that are set by the defense secretary. Those agencies account for about a third of the more than $70 billion allocated annually to the intelligence community.

    Blair and his predecessors struggled to straddle competing aspects of the job -- serving as the overall manager of the diverse intelligence community while also serving as the president's principal intelligence adviser. Blair emphasized the community-management aspect, officials said, a choice that may have cost him the ability to foster closer ties with Obama and his closest aides.

    Indeed, Blair lost several turf skirmishes to someone who was supposed to be his subordinate, CIA Director Leon E. Panetta. Even before he came into the job, Blair was warned that it would likely be the case.

    After accepting the position, Blair met with the outgoing director, Michael McConnell. "They will recruit him," McConnell said of Panetta, according to a source who witnessed the exchange, meaning that Panetta's loyalties would soon be to the agency.

    "My view is that the only person who might have the horsepower with the White House to turn the DNI into an effective position would

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