6 February 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 66 1

March 3, 2010: This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR (Ed: excerpted)

Potential Consequences

Al-Mabhouh was hardly a likable character. As a senior Hamas military commander, arms smuggler and liaison to Iran, he was already on the terrorist watch lists in the countries that have complained about the use of fraudulent passports. Public indignation is a necessary and expected reaction from these countries to save diplomatic face, but when it comes down to it, there would be few incentives to seriously punish Israel, if it indeed sponsored the hit. The police of Dubai and the United Arab Emirates, rightfully frustrated that they are tasked with solving an unsolvable case, will still probably not miss al-Mabhouh. Their efforts to stir up outrage over the assassination are likely fueled by their desire to save face in the Arab world, where the Palestinian cause is of high rhetorical importance but little strategic importance.

The fact is that the high level of complexity involved in this assassination, along with the smoothness with which it was carried out, is evidence that the operation was undertaken by an elite covert force, the likes of which could only be sponsored by a nation-state. The ability to conduct preliminary intelligence collection, to muster a large and coordinated team of skilled operatives, to fabricate passports to an exacting degree, to successfully exfiltrate all members of the team — all of this requires a significant and well-funded effort that, we believe, exceeds the current capabilities of any non-state terrorist group. It is worth noting here that the most impressive aspect of the operation was the team’s tradecraft and demeanor. All the members of this team were professionals.

Indeed, with so much time having already elapsed, and if the operation was sponsored by a nation-state, it is highly improbable that any of the operatives involved will ever be caught. However, countries around the world are offering their assistance in the case, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Australia.

Reports from 1-6 March 2010

Inside This Issue

Middle East: 1 Comments on the Al Mabhouh

assassination 2. Israel woos China on Iran – despite offing

Mabhouh Europe: 2 Islamists take over Turkey’s judiciary &

intel 3 UK: Mystery of alleged MI6 traitor’s data

theft 4 Italy: Frattini says Iran spy arrests were

not political US 4 CIA technician arrested on theft charges 5 House votes to revise intelligence

disclosure rules for president 6 US: Protected information Exchange in

the offing 7 The Cyber Threat: using intelligence to

predict and prevent Terrorism 8 Terrorism’s new target: Econo - Jihad 9 Fresh fears of maritime terrorism as

Singapore raises attack alert 10 Comment by B Rahman Tradecraft 11 Deception: Lessons from CIA Jordanian

double agent 12 Former IG of CIA rates skills of fictional

spies New Books 14 China Safari 15 The Watchers 15 Son of Hamas 16 Intelligence Analysis: How to think in

complex environments History 16 UK: Girl Guides were MI5 messengers 17 Denmark: Former editor was Mossad spy

SA Intelligencer Number 71 6 March 2010

Initiator: Johan Mostert

Contributions and enquiries dalene@4knowledge.co.za

Middle East: Comments on the Al Mabhouh assassination

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Few officials from these countries actually believe any of the operatives will be apprehended, but that is not the real reason to participate in the investigation. What officials are really looking for are the granular details of how this group of assassins and surveillants operated. These details are extremely valuable in ongoing counterintelligence efforts by countries to thwart foreign intelligence

agencies operating on their home turf. The information can provide clues to past and future cases, and it can be used to build databases on covert operatives, so that if any of these people show up unexpectedly at an airport, hotel or embassy in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia or elsewhere, the alarms can be sounded more quickly.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100303_using_intelligence_almabhouh_hit

Israel woos China on Iran-despite offing Mabhouh Mar 1, 2010: the Mirror Armed with a big fat intelligence dossier on Iran's nuclear development plans Israeli "diplomats" visited China recently, I hear. My spies tell me the Israelis are desperate to persuade China that Iran is becoming an increasing danger to the Middle East and further afield - well, mostly Israel.

The top secret diplomatic mission last week resulted in several lengthy meetings between the Israeli delegation and Chinese military and diplomatic heads. During which Israel, I gather, told China about some of the intelligence it has on Iran.

This was timed to coincide with a UN security council meeting on proposed sanctions against Iran - aimed specifically at persuading China to

sign up. I imagine details of pretty much all of this intelligence will be passed on to Iran, which has become the host country for huge Chinese oil investment.

But also there will be some American influence on the Israel - China meetings. The US wants to warn China off its dangerous economic alliance to Iran - but it needs to do this carefully.

Remember that along with the US, the UK, France and Russia..... China is the fifth permanent member of the council that can veto any resolution. Nevertheless I am told, considering that 26 Israeli Mossad agents are top of the wanted list for murdering Hamas commander Mahmoud Mabhouh in January, it went reasonably well.

http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/observation-post/2010/03/israel-woos-china-on-iran-desp.html

Islamists Take Over Turkey's Judiciary, Intel

Middle East Newsline, March 01, 2010 Islamists were said to have taken over Turkey's intelligence community and judiciary. A report said members of an anti-military Islamic movement has moved into key positions in Turkey's judiciary, law enforcement and intelligence

communities. The report said the Fethullah Gulen movement has been conducting a campaign to topple the secular military leadership. (rest of article fee-based)

http://www.menewsline.com/article-1173,19046-Islamists-Take-Over-Turkey-s-Judi.aspx

Europe

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UK: Mystery of alleged MI6 traitor's data theft The Register, 5th March 2010

Next week, a 25-year-old man will appear at the drab Magistrates' court in Westminster's Horseferry Road to answer allegations he tried to sell Top Secret MI6 files to a foreign intelligence agency for £900,000.

Daniel Houghton, who has joint British and Dutch citizenship, is accused of walking out of a meeting at a central London hotel on Monday this week with a briefcase stuffed with cash. He allegedly believed he had just sold memory sticks and a laptop hard drive containing details of British spying techniques.

In fact, he had been the unwitting target of a counter-espionage operation run by MI6's domestic counterpart, MI5. He was arrested on his way out of the hotel by officers of the Met's Counter-Terror Command, the unit that replaced Special Branch and has very close ties to MI5. A successful prosecution under the Official Secrets Act could lead to up to nine years' imprisonment for the Birmingham University computing graduate.

Chief among the many mysteries currently surrounding the case is the big question of how Houghton - who for undisclosed reasons left the intelligence services after less than two years - accessed the information and transported it out of an MI6 location. The charges accuse Houghton of stealing the files when he was still a member of the Secret Intelligence Service (the official nomenclature for MI6), between September 1, 2007, and May 31, 2009. That means he allegedly had the files for at least ten months until his arrest on Monday.

Reports this week suggest that after three months outside MI6, around late August, he telephoned an unnamed foreign intelligence service to discuss a deal. How this alleged treachery came to the attention of British authorities isn't yet clear. It is possible, for example, that Houghton was already under surveillance, or that the British received a tip-off from a friendly source. According to the same reports, undercover MI5 officers met him in February this year to view the material,

negotiate the price and gather covert evidence.

The chain of events suggests two possibilities that cast the intelligence services as either cunning or incompetent. The first is that Houghton was under suspicion while he was still working for MI6. Whatever prompted his early exit from the service he was deliberately allowed to take the files to allow counter-espionage officers to gather evidence and run their sting.

If Houghton was played from the very start to believe he was betraying his country for a briefcase of cash, then the embattled intelligence services have a much-needed victory. With public criticism at its most intense in years over their alleged complicity in torture, a classic counter-espionage operation worthy of George Smiley would remind many of the high stakes games they must play.

The second and more worrying scenario is that Houghton is actually accused of accessing Top Secret material at work, downloading it to memory sticks and carrying it out of a building without any scrutiny by his employer. This story, now the stuff of nightmares for IT managers in even the most prosaic government organisation following a series of huge data losses in recent years, would signal humiliation for the intelligence services.

Indeed, MI5 and MI6 are as close as possible to GCHQ, a world centre of information security expertise. They should not be beaten by a young, malicious insider armed with blank media and an undergraduate computing degree.

Whether they were or not, it may of course be that no more details emerge from Houghton's prosecution. Crown Court trials of Official Secrets Act cases are typically held in camera. He is next scheduled to appear before Magistrates on Thursday.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/05/daniel_houghton/

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Italy: Frattini says Iran spy arrests were 'not political' Rome, 5 March(AKI)Excerpts) - Italian foreign minister Franco Frattini on Friday strongly rejected claims by Tehran that the arrest of two Iranians accused of spying and international arms smuggling had any political motive. Frattini's comments came after Italy's ambassador to Tehran Alberto Brandanini was summoned by the Iranian foreign ministry to explain the arrest of the two Iranian nationals on Wednesday.

Earlier on Friday, the Italian foreign ministry confirmed that Brandanini had been called in after five Italians and two suspected Iranian spies were arrested in northern Italy on 3 March for allegedly trafficking weapons to Iran.

The Rome correspondent of the Iranian state television network IRIB, Hamid Massouminejad, and Ali Damirchilu were among those arrested on Wednesday. Arrest warrants have also been issued for two other Iranians still at large who are suspected of involvement in the alleged arms trafficking ring. On its Italian service web site said on Friday IRIB the Iranians were arrested to satisfy a request by Israel. The arrests of

Massouminejad and Damirchilu "appears to be a political act against Iran requested by Israel," the state television said on its site. IRIB previously said its employee's arrest was carried out as an act of revenge for his work reporting on prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's corruption.

Berlusconi during a February trip to Israel joined other western governments in calling for more stringent sanctions on Iran because of concern about its nuclear ambitions. Apart from the two Iranians, five Italians were arrested in northern Italy on 3 March for allegedly trafficking weapons to Iran. Arrest warrants were issued for two

other Iranians still at large who are suspected of involvement in the alleged arms trafficking ring, police said in Milan on Wednesday. The detentions stemmed from the investigation dubbed Operation Sniper led by Milan prosecutor Armando Spataro, who probed the 2003 kidnapping and "extraordinary rendition" of Abu Omar, a Muslim cleric accused of abetting terrorism by CIA agents in Milan. That case led to the conviction of two former Italian secret agents and 23 CIA agents in absentia over the kidnapping.

http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.1.81666318#

CIA technician arrested on theft charges Washington Times 2 March 2010 (excerpts)

A CIA technical-support official has been arrested on charges of selling more than $60,000 worth of pilfered agency electronic gear.

Todd Brandon Fehrmann, a communications-technology specialist with the agency, was arrested Friday morning at his office in Virginia and charged in a criminal complaint with stealing government equipment and

selling it to a Massachusetts-based electronics equipment broker.

According to the affidavit, Mr. Fehrmann arranged the sale of several handheld spectrum analyzers — high-technology devices with military applications that can measure and check cell-phone signals and equipment — to a company called Bizi International Inc.

United States

Italian foreign minister Franco Frattini

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The buyer became suspicious after noticing that two analyzers were new and contacted the manufacturer, Anritsu, and learned they were sold recently to the CIA. The discovery triggered a CIA inspector general investigation of Mr. Fehrmann last month, which led to an FBI probe.

"This appears to have been detected internally rather quickly — just as it should have been — and the cooperation with law enforcement was good," said a U.S. official familiar with the case.

The CIA equipment seized by the FBI in the case included 10 Anritsu analyzers, one

Rhode & Schwartz analyzer and a Fluke electronic testing device. The affidavit stated that the value of half the equipment is $60,000 and that the investigation was continuing.

Communications experts say spectrum analyzers have a variety of security uses. They can be used for checking the security of intelligence communications or for countering or tracking those who plant and trigger improvised explosive devices, which commonly use cell phones as part of the triggering device.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/02/ex-staffer-held-in-theft-sale-of-cia-electronics//print/

House votes to revise intelligence disclosure rules for president Washington Post, March 2, 2010 The House last week voted to revise the "Gang of Eight" system, under which the president discloses the most sensitive intelligence operations and covert activities to only a handful of Senate and House leaders and not the full membership of the both chambers' intelligence committees.

The law already requires the president to keep Congress fully informed of intelligence activities, particularly when U.S. participation is hidden. He also must inform the intelligence committees in a timely fashion when he signs a finding for a covert action before it gets underway, except in special situations.

Burned by the way, in their opinion, the Bush administration originally limited revelation of its post-Sept. 11, 2001, electronic interception program and later its harsh terrorist interrogation methods, members of the Democratic-led House Permanent Committee on Intelligence approved language last summer that would have done away with the Gang of Eight system. Under that system, disclosure is made only to the speaker and minority leader of the House, the majority and minority leaders of the

Senate, and the chairmen and ranking minority members of the Senate and House intelligence committees.

In the past, the normal procedure for the eight has been that they do not take notes from the briefing and cannot discuss any details with others -- including other lawmakers and their staffs.

On Thursday, the House, as part of the fiscal 2010 intelligence authorization bill, approved a new plan that had been negotiated with the administration. Under it, the president would have to notify both committees that there has been a Gang of Eight disclosure and provide the other members with "general information on the content of the finding or notice." He would continue to be required to find it "essential to limit access . . . to meet extraordinary circumstances affecting vital interests of the United States."

Another added element would permit any one of the Gang of Eight to break his or her silence and register opposition to the

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proposed intelligence operation with the director of national intelligence. That action would have to take place within 48 hours. The DNI would then report in writing to the president his response to the objection. A copy would also go to the lawmaker.

Under the proposed law, the president would be required to record the date of a Gang of Eight briefing. After 30 days, the president would also be required to provide that information in writing to the committee of the lawmaker who was briefed.

House passage may not end the controversy over how a president should inform Congress of particularly sensitive intelligence activities. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has proposed its own changes, while essentially keeping the Gang of Eight idea. Its version of the 2010 authorization bill, passed by the Senate last September, also requires that both intelligence committees be notified of all intelligence activities and when a covert action is undertaken. When the details of

such an action are limited to the Gang of Eight, it requires the director of national intelligence to explain in writing "in a timely manner" the main features of the action and the reasons it is being withheld from the other members.

Another new provision in the Senate bill would withhold funding of any intelligence activity that has not been fully disclosed to the two committees or to the Gang of Eight. The administration has not taken a public position on the Senate approach or the new House language, but the two bills appear close enough to make settlement easy to achieve.

One thing to remember, however: Congress has not passed an intelligence authorization bill for four years. In that period, the bills carried language opposed by the Bush White House. President Obama's promise of change could come to pass if Congress approves the fiscal 2010 intelligence authorization bill and he signs it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/01/AR2010030103310.html

US: Protected information exchange in the offing March 04, 2010

Washington - The problems that complicate the establishment of a common and coherent infrastructure to be used across the intelligence community are keeping Greg Gardner awake at night. The deputy chief information officer for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said he sees implementing information sharing as his office’s mission.

According to Gardner, a program to support the mission is in the works: the protected information exchange, an unclassified project that would operate on its own virtual private network and be certified and accredited for official use only. Through the exchange, intelligence could be shared on issues such as operating environments in Afghanistan and information on Pakistan, according to Gardner.

Initially populated by non-military interests, the exchange -- called PIX -- so far targets entities such as the State D epartment, the U.S. Agency for International Development and

non-government organizations. “We want to give them force protection information and communications,” Gardner said at a luncheon presented by the DC chapter of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association.

PIX would operate similar to a wiki, populated with information from users about locales and events. “It’s going to take some time" to build, Gardner said. “We have to convince people that getting out of gmail and Google docs is the way to go. We have a vision for where we want PIX to go, but so far it’s just the infrastructure and a couple small programs I’m not going to identify.”

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Creating this kind of data-sharing infrastructure will require the federal government to improve operations as the mission goes on – and “it’s kind of like changing your oil while driving at 60 miles per hour,” Gardner said. He added that multitasking is key to facilitating department-wide information sharing. “Identity and access management, collaboration tools, production

and storage and networks – these are our five swim lanes [for building communications infrastructure across the intelligence community],” Gardner said. “And it needs to be totally reliable and robust.”

“Overall, we really need the ability to share this highly compartmentalized information with decision-makers that need it,” he said.

http://gcn.com/articles/2010/03/04/greg-gardner-odni.aspx

US: The Cyber Threat: Using Intelligence to Predict and Prevent FBI.gov: 03/04/10

Terrorists plotting and scheming anonymously online—and posting videos on how to build everything from backpack bombs to bio-weapons.

Spies, hired cyber mercenaries, and criminal syndicates worming their way into government networks, attempting to steal our nation’s most sensitive secrets.

Criminal hackers using seemingly innocuous information about a business and its employees to create highly-realistic yet bogus e-mails that can give them a back door into a company’s network and even a permanent window into everything it does.

On Thursday, FBI Director Robert Mueller talked about these and other cyber threats—along with how we are working with partners around the globe to tackle them—during a keynote address at the annual RSA computer security conference in San Francisco.

The Director said that our intelligence indicates the threat of cyber terror is “real and rapidly expanding,” including the rise of extremist websites that recruit, radicalize, and incite violence.

Terrorists have yet to launch a full-scale cyber strike, but have “executed numerous denial-of-service attacks” and even defaced the website of the U.S. Congress following

President Obama’s recent State of the Union address. The Director told the crowd of cyber professionals that al Qaeda and other extremists “have shown a clear interest in pursuing hacking skills. And they will either train their own recruits or hire outsiders, with an eye toward combining physical attacks with cyber attacks.”

While the threat is evolving, the FBI’s cyber capabilities and range of partnerships and intelligence-driven initiatives continue to grow and mature. According to the Director, today we have: Cyber squads in each of our field offices nationwide, with over 1,000 specially trained agents, analysts, and digital forensic examiners who run

complex undercover operations, share intelligence with law enforcement and intelligence partners, and provide training to counterparts around the world;

More than 60 overseas offices—called legal attachés—that share information and coordinate joint investigations with their host countries;

Agents embedded with police forces in Romania, Estonia, the Netherlands, and other countries; and

Mobile Cyber Action Teams—highly-trained groups of agents, analysts, and experts in both computer forensics and malicious code who

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travel the world to respond to fast-moving cyber threats.

There’s also the National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force—created and led by the FBI—which brings together 17 law enforcement and intelligence agencies to “predict and prevent what is on the horizon and to pursue the enterprises behind these attacks.” The Director indicated that the task force works through “Threat Focus Cells—smaller groups of agents, officers, and analysts from different agencies focused on particular threats.” One cell, for

example, targets high-priority botnets that can take over computers and use them to commit all kinds of crimes.

The Director emphasized that our relationship with the private sector is vital and that we count on companies reporting breaches of cyber security. “No one country, company, or agency can stop cyber crime,” he said. “A ‘bar the windows and bolt the doors’ mentality will not ensure our collective safety. … We must start at the source; we must find those responsible.”

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/mar10/cyberintel030410.html

Terrorism’s new target: Econo-Jihad 1 March 2010: Jihadist terror organizations have set economic terrorism as their new target, intending to harm and paralyze Western economies, the United Sates in particular, claims Prof. Gabriel Weimann, expert researcher of terrorism over the Internet at the University of Haifa.

Prof. Weimann monitored websites hosted by terrorist and terrorism-supporting organizations and concludes: “For the Jihadists, the present economic crisis signifies an ideal

opportunity and platform to leverage a economic terrorist campaign.”

In the course of a study that was carried out over a number of years, Prof. Weimann surveyed public and encoded websites run by Islamic terrorist organizations, forums, video clips, and practically all the information related to Islamic Jihad terrorism that is flowing through the network.

According to Prof. Weimann, the focus on economic terrorism was set in motion with the September 11 attack on the Twin Towers,

Partners in Prevention

Last year, the FBI became aware of an emerging and potentially far-reaching cyber vulnerability involving automated banking transactions. How it played out from there is indicative of how we are using intelligence today to stay ahead of the curve in the fast-moving, infinitely complex world of cyber crime:

… Once they learned of the threat, our cyber experts reached out and shared what they knew with key partners in the financial sector.

… Following numerous discussions, we worked together to draft a joint intelligence bulletin spelling out in detail the nature of the threat and how to shore up security in response. The report was sent to more than 4,000 organizations.

… As a follow-up, several conference calls were held to go over the report and answer any questions.

… In the end, the impacted companies were grateful for the heads up and took steps to mitigate the threat as needed. As the Director said in his speech, this effort “closed the door to countless hackers.” And perhaps opened the door to better relationships with our partners in the future.

Terrorism

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when Osama bin Laden stated on the video tapes that he sent out that these attacks mostly damaged the United States’ economic base and that these attacks, which cost $500,000 to carry out, cost the U.S. $500 billion. Other publications by bin Laden himself and by other terrorist leaders show that they understand that Western and U.S. power lies in their economic strength and that the jihad movement should focus on damaging this power by employing various tactics, including: hitting international corporations directly; harming international corporations by means of 1.5 billion Muslims boycotting them, which would pressure the respective governments to adjust their policies; striking at resources that were “looted” from Muslim countries, such as oil-drilling companies in Iraq; assassinating key personalities in the global economy, most of whom they believe are Jews, and killing anyone who collaborates with these personalities.

Monitoring the Muslim terrorist-related information on the Internet, Prof. Weimann also revealed that the armed struggle against the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan is aimed at prolonging American expenditure on maintaining forces in these countries, and not necessarily at military defeat. The jihadists believe that this would help drain America’s

financial resources and eventually critically damage the American economy. Therefore, they aim to make the U.S. open as many military fronts around the world as possible.

Another result of this new focus on Econo-Jihad is an increasing jihadist interest in websites and online information on the American and Western economies, so as to glean an understanding of how these economies can be hit the hardest. Not only official websites are monitored: forums and e-

mails of individual surfers are penetrated too. By tracking Jihadist forums, Prof. Weimann has found that these surfers are increasingly following Western finance-related media publications too, as well as expert and academic analyses of the factors influencing Western

economy, such as the war in Iraq, global terrorism, natural disasters, oil prices, unemployment rates, and declines in the stock market.

“One might think that an Econo-Jihad is less violent, but this is not the case. Jihadist Internet monitoring alongside terrorist activity in the field, is evidence that the economic turn actually influences the terrorists’ targets, which have included oil-drilling infrastructures, tourism, international economic institutions and more. Indeed, Islamic terrorism’s future devices will focus on targets that will yield the most economic damage,” Prof. Weimann concludes

.http://newmedia-eng.haifa.ac.il/?p=2623

Fresh fears of maritime terrorism as Singapore raises attack alert Al Jazeera, 5 March 2010

Singapore has raised security at its and air and sea ports, and several other locations across the city, following what officials say is intelligence of a possible terrorist threat.

Wong Kan Seng, the city-state's home affairs minister, said in parliament on Friday that

raised the alert amid warnings of a possible threat to shipping in the busy Malacca Strait shipping lane.

Security has also been tightened at two new casino resorts that recently opened in Singapore.

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"We received intelligence from our liaison partners about this possible plot to go and attack vessels coming through Singapore waters through the Strait of Malacca," Wong said. "The threat is real and we are not immune to it... we must recognise that no security system can be completely foolproof."

Key waterway: Singapore, the world's busiest container port, lies at the southern end of the strait which acts as one of the world's key maritime arteries linking Asia with the Middle East and Europe.

More than 50,000 merchant ships transit the 900-km long strait every year carrying about 40 per cent of the world's trade.

On Thursday Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, who are jointly responsible for

securing the waterway, said they had stepped up maritime and air patrols over the straits.

Wong did not specify who might be behind the threat, but the alert comes after police in neighbouring Indonesia conducted a series of raids in northern Aceh province.

Officials said 14 people had been arrested in the raids, accused of plotting terrorist attacks.

In one raid on Thursday a fierce gunfight broke out, killing a police officer and

injuring 10 others.

In December 2001 Singapore police said they had uncovered a plot by the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) group to attack multiple targets in the city, including the US embassy. JI, which has been blamed for a string of attacks across Southeast Asia, has been linked by US and regional intelligence agencies to al-Qaeda.

http://english.aljazeera.net//news/asia-pacific/2010/03/20103584626373590.html

Comment by B Rahman B Rahman, March 05, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian (Excerpts)

The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat. Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the

Chennai Centre For China Studies.

The years following the Al Qaeda attack on the US naval ship USS Cole in Aden in October 2000, saw an increase in fears of sea-borne terrorism either on coastal targets or on sea-moving targets such as oil/gas tankers, container ships etc. There were also fears of a possible Al Qaeda-inspired attack to block maritime choke-points such as the Malacca Strait.

These fears were caused by the flow of human intelligence as well as by the interrogation of

arrested suspects. These fears reached the zenith in the months following the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. Consequently, there was increased international and regional co-operation in the form of exchange of intelligence and assessments, joint or co-ordinated naval patrolling, joint naval exercises, intensified action against piracy in the Malacca Strait etc.

Post-2005, these fears got diluted partly due to the absence of any terrorist attack from the sea, partly due to the preoccupation of Al Qaeda and its allies with land-based operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and partly due to the effective action taken against piracy in the Malacca Strait region.

In recent months, there has been a revival of the fears about a possible maritime terrorist strike due to the following reasons: Firstly, an

Singapore is the world's busiest container port, with hundreds of ships transiting every day [AFP]

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increase in incidents of piracy by Somali/Yemeni pirates and the inability of the international community to deal effectively with the problem till now; secondly, an increase in the activities of Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia, both of which have a large number of sea-faring men who might be prepared to help Al Qaeda in sea-borne attacks; thirdly, the successful sea-borne terrorist strikes mounted by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on land-based targets in Mumbai from November 26 to 29,2008, and the failure of the Indian Navy and other Navies operating in the seas of the region to detect the plans of the LET and the movement of the LET boat carrying the terrorists from Karachi to Mumbai; and fourthly, the strengthening of physical security for land-based targets, which has necessitated the terrorists once again turning their attention to sea-based targets.

The enormous publicity, which the LET got for its sea-borne attack in Mumbai, demonstrated the propaganda value of sea-borne attacks, where the surprise element is more. It is to be expected that not only Al Qaeda, but also other Al Qaeda allied elements such as those of the Jemmah Islamiyah and the Yemeni and Somali members of Al Qaeda might once again

be tempted to think in terms of acts of maritime terrorism to prove that their capabilities are intact.

It is in this context that one has to see reports from Singapore that an unidentified terrorist group is planning attacks against oil tankers in the Malacca Strait. The Singapore Shipping Association has been quoted as saying on March 2,2010, that it had received an advisory from the Singapore Navy Information Fusion Centre about "an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Strait." It added: "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo." The Navy Centre's advisory reportedly said: "The terrorists' intent is probably to achieve widespread publicity and showcase that it remains a viable group." It reminded shipping operators that the militants could use smaller vessels such as dinghies and speedboats to attack oil tankers. It recommended that ships should "strengthen their onboard security measures and adopt community reporting to increase awareness and strengthen the safety of all seafarers," according to the Association.

Read full article at http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2010/03/fresh-fears-of-maritime-terrorism.html

Deception: Lessons from CIA Jordanian Double Agent Video In a posthumous video message posted on an extremist website, Jordanian physician and double agent Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi claimed that he intended to kidnap only a single Jordanian intelligence officer, but then stumbled on an unexpected opportunity to attack a large group of Americans and their Jordanian allies at once.

He attributes the change to "the stupidity of Jordanian intelligence and the stupidity of American intelligence" services that invited him to Afghanistan to help set up a strike against al-Qaeda targets.

The video was apparently filmed shortly before the 32-year-old al-Balawi blew himself up at a CIA facility on December 30 in Afghanistan's eastern province of Khost where he'd been invited to reveal information on al-Qaeda No 2 Ayman al-Zawahri. The attack killed nine people, including seven Americans. It was the deadliest attack on the US intelligence agency's staff in a quarter-century.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/48/20100302/1248/twl-bomber-says-he-lured-cia-operatives.html

Tradecraft

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Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents dalene@4knowledge.co.za

“So they were offering me millions upon millions, and these weren’t mere empty promises. . . . . So they think that if a man is offered money, it is possible for him to abandon his creed. They think that we worship wealth and lusts just like them. How amazing!

The fact is, after consulting with the Mujahideen, I cut off ties for four months in order for Jordanian intelligence to stew in its own juices thinking that this guy had abandoned it, so that if he came back to them and told them that conditions were difficult, they would buy his story quickly. And that’s

what happened; and all praise is due to Allah, Lord of the worlds. I cut ties for four months, then came back to them with some videos taken with leaders of the Mujahideen, so that they would think that I was leaking videos and betraying the Mujahideen. All praise is due to Allah, the bait fell in the right spot and they went head over heels with excitement. The videos I sent were actually taken with the Mujahideen’s own camera for this very purpose” .

http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/Balawi0310-2.pdf

Frederick P. Hitz, former inspector general of the CIA, Rates the Skills of Fictional Spies Rudyard Kipling's 'Kim' Kim has excellent cover for action; even though he is Anglo-Irish, he assumes native dress and darkens his face so he can pass as an Indian. Creighton Sahib—his British employer in the Ethnological Survey, which provides institutional cover for British spies in India—uses him first as a messenger helping deliver news of troop movements along the Grand Trunk Road. After Kim is recruited to the service and sent to secondary school to

become a surveyor, he acquires the skills to help perform surveys in the outback, where he can keep an eye on Russian and French intruders seeking to undermine British rule. In addition, Kim signs on as "chela" or manservant to a wandering Tibetan Buddhist holy man giving him freedom to travel anywhere in India to accompany his master's quest for spiritual salvation. Kim has excellent spy instincts. He is a watcher.

James Bond in 'Dr. No' and 'From Russia with Love' by Ian Fleming James Bond is a hoot even if he isn't a very careful spy. What is noteworthy in these two books and movies is that in terms of good ops security, it does not pay to get too close to James Bond. In "Dr. No," Bond's Cayman Islands guide Quarrel is swallowed up by the swamp-eating protective machine that polices Dr. No's Caribbean hideaway, while Bond escapes. In "From Russia with Love," Bond's Anglo-Turkish sidekick, Darko Karim Bey, is similarly eliminated by a KGB assassin trying to gun down 007. Bond, of course, survives.

George Smiley in 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' by John le Carré Described as "small, podgy and at best middle-aged, he was by appearance one of London's meek who do not inherit the earth." In other words, unless one knew of George Smiley's brilliance and connections, he could enter a room unnoticed, the best kind of position for a master spy to assume. He was a stickler for spy tradecraft: "And his fancy that he was being followed? What of that? What of the shadow he never saw, only felt, till his back seemed to tingle with the intensity of his watcher's gaze; he saw nothing, heard nothing, only felt. He was too old not to heed the warning. The creak of a stair that had not creaked before; the rustle of a shutter when no wind was

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blowing; the car with a different number plate but the same scratch on the offside wing; the face on the Metro that you know you have seen somewhere before: for years at a time these were signs he had lived by; any one of them was reason enough to move, change towns, identities. For in that profession there is no such thing as coincidence." While Smiley's operational awareness may seem quaint and romantic in modern days, it makes the point that spy games are for keeps. Alec Guinness plays a great Smiley in the BBC spectacular.

The Jackal in 'The Day of the Jackal' by Frederick Forsyth The Jackal's tradecraft and preparations before he sets out to assassinate Charles de Gaulle in this book and movie are remarkable. As the Jackal points out, a maximum of preparation is required when you intend to assassinate a heavily guarded chief of state and want to survive the attack. In this case, the Jackal steals the identity of a child who has died in infancy out of the parish records of an English country church in order to obtain a passport. Several other identities are stolen from unsuspecting passengers at Heathrow, who are surreptitiously stripped of their passports. In addition, he adopts the guise of a wounded World War I French veteran so that he can hide his murder weapon on his person and gain access to a building close to the monument where General de Gaulle is scheduled to decorate a war hero on the anniversary of the liberation of Paris. The Jackal's preparations are exhaustive—and then (spoiler alert) they fail due to the simple error of not counting on General De Gaulle to kiss the honoree on both cheeks. Frederick P. Hitz, a lecturer on law and public policy at the University of Virginia, is author of "The Great Game" and "Why Spy?" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704625004575089353725499056.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Review: China Safari–On the Trail of Beijing’s Expansion in Africa Review from Robert Steele (excerpts):

• Africa is undergoing a huge transformation, and in combination, the infusion of Chinese infrastructure with the discovery of new energy fields and the growing need of all for what Africa has, is creating a perfect environment for a wealth explosion, and the US is missing it.

• US has given up in Africa, in large part because the US Government other than the military does not have the resources, the human capital, the area knowledge, or the innate interest to actually do something strategic. The Chinese, in contrast, are unifying and pacifying Africa with infrastructure and commerce, while gaining direct access to natural resources that they can take possession of at half the market value by controlling the supply chain and no doubt lying about how much they are extracting.

• Chinese study every Minister they need, then assign a Ministerial-level contact from China to visit, cultivate, and then keep in touch–this is so far ahead of the US light-weight approach it makes me want to cry

New Books

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• 900 Chinese companies active across Africa

• 750,000 Chinese immigrants in South Africa ALONE

• Cameroon is processing 700,000 visa requests in its Beijing Embassy

• 300 million Chinese emigrants to Africa is a stated long-term goal

• Core Chinese approach is a win-win package deal that trades infrastructure and unconditional loans for resource futures–they are approaching each nation strategically and far superior to US and European incoherence. West focuses on humanitarian and other broad issues, Chinese focus on business and longer term win

• Chinese are beating the West on price and performance every time, to the point that Western firms are starting to bid Chinese subcontractors.

• Africa and Chinese appear to share a view of democracy as being where everyone decides and no one works

• Chinese get more out of everything, to include penny pinching, working all facilities and machines 24/7 with shifts, and completely avoiding “distractions” of local engagement outside of business to business dealings

• Chinese laborers can earn five times in Africa what they can in China–$500 a month versus $100 a month

• China is consuming 32% of the world’s rice, 47% of the world’s cement, 33% of the world’s cigarettes, and 10% of the world’s lumber but growing rapidly

• Chinese goods in Africa sell for one quarter to one fifth what the African’s own products sell for

• China close to #1 in small arms sales in Africa

• China using private security firms, up to 5,000 individuals (probably Chinese) guarding one pipeline

• Chinese farmers in Sudan growing vegetables for sale to the large Chinese population there, making ten times what they could at home

• Ethiopia has China’s biggest Embassy after India

• Washington’s China watchers fall into two camps according to the authors, the Panda Huggers and the Dragon Slayers. It is clear to me as a reader and intelligence professional that neither group has a strategic analytic model or any sense of what US should be doing and why, in Africa

• Land mines and minefields do not slow down Chinese work. They use bulldozers to set off the mines, if a worker dies their family gets a $44,000 windfall and everyone is happy

• Chinese created economic zones in Africa that appear to be phantom zones and a tax avoidance scheme, but Africa does not have a regional means of studying and then challenging Chinese moves of this sort

The major downside of China in Africa that came up over and over was the total shut out of local workers who gain no employment, no training, no future. http://www.phibetaiota.net/?p=23373

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The Watchers: The Rise of America's Surveillance State Shane Harris

Using exclusive access to key insiders, Shane Harris charts the rise of America's surveillance state over the past twenty-five years and highlights a dangerous paradox: Our government's strategy has made it harder to catch terrorists and easier to spy on the rest of us. Our surveillance state was born in the brain of Admiral John Poindexter in 1983. Poindexter, Reagan's National Security Advisor, realized that the United States might have prevented the terrorist massacre of 241 Marines in Beirut if only intelligence agencies had been able to analyze in real time data they had on the attackers. Poindexter poured government know-how and funds into his dream - a system that would sift reams of data for signs of terrorist activity. Decades later, that elusive dream still

captivates Washington. After the 2001 attacks, Poindexter returned to government with a controversial program, called Total Information Awareness, to detect the next attack. Today it is a secretly funded operation that can gather personal information on every American and millions of others worldwide.

But Poindexter's dream has also become America's nightmare. Despite billions of dollars spent on this digital quest since the Reagan era, we still can't discern future threats in the vast data cloud that surrounds us all. But the government can now spy on its citizens with an ease that was impossible-and illegal-just a few years ago. Drawing on unprecedented access to the people who pioneered this high-tech spycraft, Harris shows how it has shifted from the province of right- wing technocrats to a cornerstone of the Obama administration's war on terror.

Harris puts us behind the scenes and in front of the screens where twenty-first-century spycraft was born. We witness Poindexter quietly working from the private sector to get government to buy in to his programs in the early nineties. We see an army major agonize as he carries out an order to delete the vast database he's gathered on possible terror cells-and on thousands of innocent Americans-months before 9/11. We follow General Mike Hayden as he persuades the Bush administration to secretly monitor Americans based on a flawed interpretation of the law. After Congress publicly bans the Total Information Awareness program in 2003, we watch as it is covertly shifted to a "black op," which protects it from public scrutiny. When the next crisis comes, our government will inevitably crack down on civil liberties, but it will be no better able to identify new dangers. This is the outcome of a dream first hatched almost three decades ago, and The Watchers is an engrossing, unnerving wake-up call.

http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781594202452,00.html?The_Watchers_Shane_Harris

Son of Hamas: A Gripping Account of Terror, Betrayal, Political Intrigue, and Unthinkable Choices Before the age of twenty-one, Mosab Hassan Yousef saw things no one should ever see: abject poverty, abuse of power, torture, and death. He witnessed the behind-the-scenes dealings of top Middle Eastern leaders who make headlines around the world. He was trusted at the highest levels of Hamas and participated in the Intifada. He was held captive deep inside Israel's most feared prison facility. His dangerous choices and unlikely journey through dark places made him a traitor

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in the eyes of people he loves--and gave him access to extraordinary secrets. On the pages of this book, he exposes events and processes that to this point have been known only by a handful of individuals... Mosab Hassan ("Joseph") Yousef is the son of Sheikh Hassan Yousef, a founding leader of Hamas, internationally recognized as a terrorist organization and responsible for countless suicide bombings and other deadly attacks against Israel. An integral part of the movement, Mosab was imprisoned several times by the Israeli internal intelligence service. After a chance encounter with a British tourist, he started a six-year quest that jeopardized Hamas, endangered his family, and threatened his life. He has since embraced the teachings of Jesus and sought political asylum in America.

Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments

(Praeger Security International) (Hardcover)

Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace.

Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or

type of operational environment.

UK: Girl Guides were MI5 messengers The Sun, 27 Feb 2010 (excerpted)

Working as an undercover spy is probably the last thing you would expect of a Girl Guide.

But now The Sun can reveal a top-secret document which proves that 90 teenage Guides became spooks working for security service MI5 in the First World War.

It explains in astonishing detail their working conditions, responsibilities, qualifications and pay scales. All the girls who worked for MI5 between 1914 and 1918 were aged from 14 to 16. Their main role was as 50p-a-week messengers passing on highly classified information. The teenagers were so trusted by MI5 bosses that they were allowed to relay some of the messages verbally.

History

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At the start of the war Boy Scouts were also used. But it quickly became clear that Girl Guides were more efficient because they were less boisterous and talkative.

The secret role of the girls was uncovered when Girlguiding UK and MI5 researched their histories as part of their centenary celebrations. MI5, which was founded in 1909, tracked down a secret document called Duties Of H Branch, which specifically covered the role of the Girl Guides. They worked at Waterloo House and two other offices in central London, where they were divided up

into five or six Guides under a patrol leader.

Girl Guides archivist Karen Stapley said: "At first there were both Scouts and Guides working for MI5. But it soon became clear that the boys were too boisterous and talkative and couldn't adapt to periods of inactivity between their duties. "It was felt that the girls were more restrained and could be trusted to a greater degree, so the Boy Scouts were phased out. A total of 90 Guides worked for MI5 during the course of the war and their main duties were as messengers, which often involved them going out of the buildings. "Some of the top-secret messages had to be passed on verbally, which shows how much the girls were trusted."

Praising the work of the girls, Baden-Powell once said: "One of the big government offices in London has taken on Girl Guides as confidential messengers and orderlies - avowedly because 'they can be trusted, better than boys, not to talk'.

In a modern link with spooks, Dame Stella Rimington, MI5's first woman director general and the first to be officially identified, was a Girl Guide.

Chief Guide Liz Burnley said: "MI5 spotted qualities in the Girl Guides in 1914 which still hold true today and serve them well in their careers.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2871015/Girl-Guides-war-effort-revealed.html

Denmark: Former editor was Mossad spy The Copenhagen Post, 1 March 2010

Herbert Pundik used his work as a journalist as a cover to provide intelligence reports to Israel’s Mossad. Former chief editor of Politiken newspaper and respected Danish foreign affairs journalist Herbert Pundik, has spoken for the first time about his days as a spy for the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency.

Born in Copenhagen in 1927, but living in Israel since 1954, Pundik began working as a correspondent and reporter for public broadcaster DR as well as Information and Politiken newspapers.

During this time, he worked a lot in Africa and used his journalism work as a cover for collecting information for the agency.‘I did a detailed analysis of the distribution of tribes in Somali areas and their relationships to political

parties ... I also did a study of the political conditions in northern Nigeria.’

Pundik questions where the border lies between spying and investigative journalism. ‘It was all material that the newspaper could have used, but there just wasn’t interest in this and that person’s relationship to this and that man…’

He underlined that he was never asked to provide information about Denmark to Mossad, not only because Denmark wasn’t a country of interest, but also because he says it’s the agency’s policy never to recruit a foreigner to spy on their homeland. ‘It was largely intelligence work I did, and which I did on the condition that all my reports be shared with the Danish authorities.’

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Herbert delivered his reports to the Israeli embassy, which in turn made copies available to the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) - the country’s foreign intelligence agency. Peter Ilsøe, the former deputy director of FE was a good friend of Herbert’s and the

journalist says he confirmed that the material was being delivered to the Danes.

Herbert worked for Mossad for about 10 years, but quit his role when he took on the post of Editor of Politiken newspaper in 1970 – a position he held for 23 years.

http://www.cphpost.dk/component/content/48373.html?task=view

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