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1NC- RUSSIA AEROSPACE

Status quo decline of American space programs is allowing the Russianaerospace industry to assume leadership

SRAS 10 (2/10/10, School of Russian and Asian Studies, think tank composed of a team of consultants and advisersdedicated to education and educational opportunities in Russia and Eurasia. They have studied within the Russian educationalsystem and have worked closely with institutions for several years to identify programs of interest and value to international students,Russia May Become 'Absolute' Leader in Space Exploration,http://www.sras.org/russia_may_become_absolute_leader_in_space_exploration DH)

The U.S. administration's decision to abandon ambitious space exploration programs, including amanned Lunar mission in 2020, is giving Russia a chance to strengthen its position in manned spaceflight projects, Yuri Kara, a member of Russia's Tsiolkovsky Cosmonautics Academy, told Interfax-AVN. "In my opinion,Russia has received an amazing carte blanche in order to take over the 'flag' of the leadership inspace exploration from the United States," Kara said. On Monday, President Barack Obama announcedin his 2011 budget request that he would cancel U.S. plans to send humans back to the moon,saying the project was too expensive. In the next 5-7 years, Russia will be the only country capable of deliveringcrewmembers to the International Space Station. But Russia should also start working on a manned mission to Mars, the expert

said. "Today, Russia needs to focus its efforts on the Mars program. The time has come for it to

become the absolute space leader," Kara said. In this case, "other states will join" space explorationprojects implemented by Russia, he said. "I am not speaking about Russia's monopoly on this area. But it [Russia]has been playing a leading role and, consequently, it will be able to determine the configuration ofthe future Mars mission,"he added.

US space power trades off with Russian aeronautics industry.AP, 4/12. [VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV. Medvedev: Space will remain a key Russian priority]

Russia must preserve its pre-eminence in space, President Dmitry Medvedev declared Tuesday on the 50thanniversary of the first human spaceflight by cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin. The statement followed warnings by another cosmonaut that

Russia risks losing its edge in space research by relying solely on Soviet-era achievements and

doing little to develop new space technologies. Gagarin's 108-minute mission on April 12, 1961, remains a sourceof great national pride, and Russia marked the day with fanfare resembling Soviet-era celebrations. Schools had special lessonsdedicated to Gagarin, billboards carried his smiling face and national television channels broadcast a flow of movies and

documentaries about the flight. "We were the first to fly to space and have had a great number of achievements, and wemustn't lose our advantage," Medvedev said during a visit to Mission Control outside Moscow. On Monday, SvetlanaSavitskaya, who flew space missions in 1982 and 1984 and became the first woman to make a spacewalk, harshly criticized the

Kremlin for paying little attention to space research after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. "There's nothing new to beproud of in the last 20 years," said Savitskaya, a member of Russian parliament from the CommunistParty. Russia has used the Soyuz and Progress spacecraft, whose designs date back to the 1960s,to send an increasing number of crew and cargo to the International Space Station. Russia's importancewill grow even more after the U.S. space shuttle Atlantis closes out the U.S. program this summer, leavingthe Russian spacecraft as the only link to the station. But Savitskaya and some other cosmonauts have warned that Russia hasdone little to build a replacement to the Soyuz and could quickly fall behind America after it buildsa new-generation spaceship. Boris Chertok, the former deputy to Sergei Korolyov, the father of the Soviet space program,says it has become increasingly difficult for Russia's space industries to hire new personnel. "Salaries in space industries are muchlower than average salaries in banks and commercial companies," Chertok, 99, told reporters last week. "We need (more) people ofKorolyov's caliber." Korolyov, a visionary scientist as well as a tough manager, led the team that put the world's first manmade

satellite in orbit on October 4, 1957. He then spearheaded a massive effort to score another first with Gagarin's mission. "Ourcompetition with America was spurring us to move faster to make the first human spaceflight,"Valery Kubasov, a member of Korolyov's design team who later became a cosmonaut, told The Associated Press. Gagarin'saccomplishment shocked the United States, prompting it to declare the goal of putting a man onthe moon.


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Russian aerospace industry collapse causes asteroid collision --- causes massdeathRussian Press Digest 2010 (RusData Line, Russia is developing equipment for exploration of apotentially dangerous asteroid, May 19 )

Russian scientists are promising to develop a cosmic device for exploration of a celestial body

which, according to certain astronomers, presents a certain threat to life on Earth. On Tuesday, director of theSpace Research Institute, RAS, academician Lev Zeleny, told journalists that the leading domestic enterprise in therocket and space industry - Lavochkin Scientific Production Association, is creating a device for theexploration of the asteroid Apophis. "In 2029, the trajectory of Apophis will be at a fairly closedistance from the Earth, and during the second cycle of movement, in 2036, there is a probability that it willcollide with our planet," cautioned academician Zeleny. According to him, the damage resulting from such acollision will be three times more severe than the destruction that was caused by the Tunguskameteorite. Scientists believe that the space object that caused the explosion near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River on June30, 1908, was 50 meters in diameter and could have weighed 1-2 million tons. For comparison: the size of Apophis, discovered in2004, is 270 by 60 meters, and the asteroid's total weight, according to various estimates, amounts to anywhere from 26 to 45 tons.The likelihood that the giant cosmic "cobblestone" will collide with the Earth in 2029 is negligible: according to official estimates,

published by NASA, the probability of a collision is 1 in 250,000. However, Apophis will "come near" our planet ;according to the latest estimates, in 2029, the asteroid will pass the Earth's surface at a distance of 28,900 kilometers (give or take

200-300 km). Such proximity could have an effect on the orbit of a small celestial body. Deviation

from the previous route could result in the Apophis to once again pass the Earth at a dangerouslyclose distance 7 years later, in 2036. According to NASA, in the event the "celestial guest" collides with the Earth, anexplosion with the force of more than 500 megatons is possible (for comparison: the effects of the Tunguskameteorite's landing are estimated at about 10 megatons, which is equivalent to an explosion of a hydrogenbomb). Scientists, who based their estimates on a maximum possible size of the asteroid - 390 meters - concluded that if such acelestial body were to enter the Earth's atmosphere at a speed of 12.6 km/s, then the collision would form a crater on theEarth's surface of almost 6 km in diameter and trigger an earthquake, measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale, within a 10 kmradius. If the asteroid falls into an ocean, it would result in an enormous tsunami; and, if a densely populated area isstricken, the destruction will affect several hundreds of kilometers. However, scientists note that even such apessimistic scenario does not assume that this will be a global-scale catastrophe, similar to the one which led to the distinction ofthe dinosaurs - Apophis is simply too small for this. According to the hypothesis of a Nobel Prize laureate, Luis Alvarez, the "stone"

that caused a nuclear winter 65 million years ago was about 10 km in diameter. "People's lives are in danger. It is better wespend a few hundred million dollars and create a system that will allow us to avoid a collision,than sit and wait for this to happen and thousands of people lose their lives," Anatoly Perminov, head ofRussia's Federal Space Agency Roscosmos, warned the public in January of this year. However, astronomers say that one shouldnot expect the end of the world to come in 2036; the probability Apophis will collide with Earth is very small, but, as was noted by

academician Lev Zeleny, this is not a "zero probability". In order to obtain some more precise data on the behavior of theasteroid it was suggested to place a special beacon on Apophis. This, according to Mr. Zeleny, should be accomplished in 2029 asthe asteroid approaches the Earth. "The beacon will make it possible to obtain very precise trajectory measurements of the asteroid,which will allow making a more precise forecast as to whether or not it will collide with the Earth 7 years later as well as taking thenecessary measures to divert it from its dangerous course," explained the director of the Space Research Institute, RAS. The topicof protection of the Earth from the asteroid threat has not only been discussed within the scientific community for a long time, buthas also become a part of the mass culture - take the Hollywood production, Armageddon, as an example, which was filmed sixyears prior to the discovery of Apophis in 1998. In the movie, an American expedition lands on an asteroid, as it approaches theEarth, and destroys it with a nuclear explosion. Scientists are offering measures for eliminating the uninvited celestial guest that areno-less-effective and, at a first glance, equally science-fictional. For example, the space device could deploy a "solar sail" - a thinlight-reflecting film - on the asteroid. It is believed that the pressure of electromagnetic rays could alter the asteroid's speed anddirection. Experts of the European Space Agency proposed changing the trajectory of Apophis with the use of a special "orbitevacuator". The asteroid should be approached by a space ship, which will hover above it at the nearest possible proximity, whichwill be made possible by engines powered by solar batteries. The "cosmic traction engine" will pull the asteroid, while slightly

accelerating is movement, and eventually bring the celestial body to a safer orbit. The development of such a "traction ship" or a"cosmic traction device" has been promised by the British corporation, EADS Atrium. In turn, the Lavochkin Scientific ProductionAssociation, which has not only produced artificial Earth satellites Lunokhod-1, and devices for the exploration of Venus and Mars,but also intercontinental cruise missiles, could use its designs. However, as was noted last December by the head of Roscosmos,

Anatoly Perminov, there are no plans to destroy the asteroid. "No nuclear explosions, everything will be donebased on the laws of physics," stressed the head of the space agency.


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1NC- RUSSIA ECONOMY

Russia sphere of influence growing now due to the space programZak, 08. [Anthony, editor of Russian Space Web. Russian Space Prgram: A Decade Review (2000 -2010] Russian Space Web.http://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.html]

In May 2001, a respectable American magazine published an apocalyptic prophesy entitled "Russia isFinished." Intellectualizing the conventional wisdom of the 1990s, the article confidently promised "the unstoppable descent of aonce great power into social catastrophe and strategic irrelevance." Little did the editors of the publication know thatjust a few months later, the only remaining superpower would be hit with the worst terrorist attackin its history, dragging its government into a protracted and costly conflict across the world. Oneof the unintended consequences of the post-September 11 global instability, combined with economic boom in Asia,became soaring oil prices, which quickly turned Russia's natural resources-driven economy frombust to boom. With the Kremlin coffers full with oil revenues, the Russian government managed not simply topostpone a "social catastrophe," but to take steps to reverse its "strategic irrelevance." On the international stage,Russian President Vladimir Putin made his official doctrine the creation of a "multi-polar world,"which would challenge America's military and economic dominance. By the end of his two terms in office,President Putin consolidated so much power in his hands that he could make his old secret service bosses red with envy. Putinpromised to use his new financial and political muscle to repair Russia's battered economy and

military might. In 2006, Russian military spending approached 600 billion rubles, or double of its annual budget in 2000. By theend of 2007, a Russian aircraft carrier group was heading back on patrol of the high seas, in a rare show of military power since theend of the Cold War. Strategic bombers, land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles resumed regular doomsday rehearsal

missions. Oil money also started trickling down into the previously underfunded space industry. Tothe delight of Russian space officials, increased funding was accompanied by President Putin's declarationthat "...without astronautics, Russia can not compete for one of the leading positions in theworld's civilization, and will not be able to provide its defense at a necessary level." (270) To restoreRussian presence beyond Earth, the Putin administration started drafting the nation's long-term space strategy. On October 22,2005, the Russian government signed a decree No. 635, approving Federal Space Program for 2006-2015 and worth 305 billionrubles. (299) The industry was directed to propose its projects and plan its activities in the timeframe of a two-phase Federal SpaceProgram, FKP: Short-term projects and goals until 2015-2020 Long-term projects planning for the period 2020-2040 The Russian

space budget continued growing during the 2000s, almost doubling by 2009. Manned space flightUnlike in the 1990s,cooperation with NASA was no longer a centerpiece of Russia's manned space program,reflecting the new political climate in the first years of the 21st century. Although the two space agencies were

continuing working closely on the construction of the International Space Station, the program was increasingly becoming a loneoutpost of cooperation in the sea of unraveling hopes. America's bullish moves to stretch NATO toward Russian bordersand hastily deploy a missile defense system in Europe pushed relations between the two countries, in the words ofone American diplomat, "from bad to worse." On Feb. 10, 2007, at a major security conference in Munich, Germany,President Putin accused the United States of provoking a new nuclear arms race among other sins. Western pundits talkedof a new cold war, while state-controlled Russian TV was full of paranoia about Western conspiracies to weaken Russia. Insuch a climate, on both sides, rational ideas of building a common future for the world communitywere being replaced by chauvinistic urges for global economic domination and internationalprestige. At the beginning of 2004, NASA essentially declared its intention to divorce from Russia andEurope with its decision to withdraw from the International Space Station program and aim for the Moon instead. Unlike the ISS,all the crucial elements of the future American lunar infrastructure would be built domestically, with no reliance on foreign

contributions or major overseas contractors. Moon race: round two Although officially NASA left the door open tointernational participation in the lunar program, America's partners were left to decide for themselves about newdirections in space. As rising giants of Asia -- China and India -- made their intentions for exploring the Moon

loud and clear, Russia and Europe could hardly afford to stay on the sidelines of whatincreasingly resembled a new moon race. Not coincidently, during 2005 and 2006, the Russian space agency and itsEuropean partners rejected a proposal from the industry to build a new-generation reusable spacecraft, which would be best suitedfor operations in the low-Earth orbit. The idea of a new all-Russian space station fielded around the same time did get some tractionas a possible foundation for lunar and martian exploration, but only as a secondary goal. Instead, both Russian and European spaceofficials favored the concept of a lunar-oriented project, known as ACTS. To be developed cooperatively in Europe and Russia, thefuture program would include a new spacecraft capable of entering lunar orbit and, eventually, a lunar lander designed to del iverhumans on the surface of the Moon. Unlike the United States, Europe represented a natural partner for Russia, since the two sideshave been closely involved in every aspect of economic cooperation from energy to aviation for more than a decade. During the firstyears of the 21st century, Russia's chief spacecraft developer, RKK Energia, served as a major contractor in the development of theEuropean ATV cargo ship, designed to resupply the ISS.
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/iss.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/chronology_missiles.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/kliper_international.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/iss.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/iss.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/kliper_international.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/chronology_missiles.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/iss.htmlhttp://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.html


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US space hegemony trades off with Russian modernizationMack, 3/15 [David, journalist for Center of Strategic and International Studies. Russias New SpaceOdyssey CSIS. ]

For those who view Russias space program as a mere rocket taxi servicea relic of its former gloryby the end of this

year, Russia will finally complete the Soviet Unions most ambitious (and expensive) space project.(Global'naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistemaor Global Navigation Satellite System) was a Soviet-initiated project begun in1976 which by the mid-1990s had fallen to the wayside. In the first years of Vladimir Putins tenure as president, work began to

reprieve GLONASS with updates for the twenty-first century. The new GLONASS is intended for both military andcivilian use and will compete with rival satellite positioning systems such as GPS (United States),Galileo (European Union), and Compass (China). Russias national navigation system suffered manysetbacksin recent years dueto foolish mistakes, but Roscosmos is confident that there will be 100 percent coverage by the end of this year. Currently 22

operational GLONASS satellites (out of 26 total) orbiting the Earth cover99 percentof the planet. The achievement isalready sparking new possibilities within the realms of business and security. Russia's largesttelecommunication provider, OAO Mobile Telesystems, has been advertising the country's firstsmart phonewith the ability toaccess GLONASS navigation capabilities which will go on sale this April; meanwhile a special program called Safe Sochi will relyon GLONASS for its security surveillance operations during 2014s Winter Olympic Games at the doorstep of Russias mostvolatile

region. The completion of GLONASS, however, should be viewed, above all else, as a symbolic act. In this decade Russiais looking to take on a leading role in the international arena, as exemplified by their playing host to a numberof the worlds most sought after events, namely, the World Cup and the Olympic Games. Its no secret that Russia intends to

use the public eye to highlight their incredible achievements since the collapse of the SovietUnion, and the resurrection of their space program will be at the forefront of that list. Russia is mullingover the possibility of sending theOlympic flame(a torch which travels around the world before stopping at the host city to mark thestart of the games) into space a novel proposal, and one that would make a bold statement about the clear path that a resurgentRussia is on. Recently Russia has revealed itsspace strategyup to the year 2035 which details plans for exploration anddevelopment of the Moon, Mars, and projects in deep space, as well as a new launch site to be built in Eastern Russia (VostochniyCosmodrome), and an all-Russian space station in low-Earth orbit to replace the ISS after the end of its operation in 2020. Whilelogistically speaking manned-missions to the Moon and Mars are still some years away for Russia, they are not wasting any time inpreparation. An elaborate experiment is currently underway to test, as accurately as possible, the psychological and physiologicalstrains of a voyage to deep space.Mars500, as it is dubbed, is a$15 millioncollaborative effort of Russia, China, and the EU tosimulate a manned round-trip mission to Mars. Six male crewmembers have been locked in a 1,720-square-foot windowless mockspace shuttle located on the outskirts of Moscow for the duration of 520 days with limited contact to the outside world. Thesimulation is sure to break down some barriers on what is possible concerning the capabilities for manned deep space travel, and

could potentially spark a space race for the red planet. [Infographic courtesy ofSpace.com]Russias space program inrecent years has been given a breath of new life. This new decade, and in particular the next four to

five years, will be a critical timeframe for Roscosmos. The retirement of the American fleet ofspace shuttles will leave a void, and Russia can use this opportunity to step up and take a leadingrole in the international space arena, not to mention the profits they will rake in by monopolizingthe market for near-Earth space travel. That is not to say that Russia should simply use this time to capitalize onthe favorable supply/demand situation, but use it wisely to invest back into their rocket-space industry andbuild partnerships with up-and-coming space powers such as India and China so as to aid research and developmentand remain competitive for the future. The completion of GLONASS by the end of 2011 is certainly assymbolic an accomplishment as it is a strategic one for Russia, and though they have restoredsome of their lost grandeur, Roscosmos still has a lot to prove.But Russias space program is surely on itsway forward as true pioneers of mankinds final frontier.

Russian modernization key to Russian Economy

CD 10Institute of Contemporary Development, 2010, Information Technology and Russia's Future,

online: Russias extremely strong economic growth is one of the countrys recent major accomplishments. Undoubtedly, the naturalresources sector has played a significant role in this achievement. However, economic growth based solely on the natural resourcessector is neither sufficient nor sustainable. We are entering the era of the global information society, where knowledge is the core

resource and mechanism of accelerated development. Russias continued economic growth will depend on thesuccessful development of the innovative industries of the nations economy, particularlyinnovative infrastructure.The advanced development of high-tech industries, including the Informationand Communication Technology Sector (ICT), is also a key condition for a strong and growing economy. Inmost developed countries, ICT represents 8-12% of a countrys GDP and is one of the leading sectors in terms of capitalization of

the global economy. This sectors role will only strengthen with time. Alongside oil & gas, Russias ICT is one of the twodrivers of economic development. Since 2000, this sector has developed four times faster than the averageperformance of the Russian economy. ICT has demonstrated rapid, steady and stable growth in all of its segments. The
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1206/Russia-s-2-billion-project-to-rival-America-s-GPS-suffers-setbackhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1206/Russia-s-2-billion-project-to-rival-America-s-GPS-suffers-setbackhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1206/Russia-s-2-billion-project-to-rival-America-s-GPS-suffers-setbackhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-02/28/c_13754499.htmhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-02/28/c_13754499.htmhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-02/28/c_13754499.htmhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/05/46981191.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/05/46981191.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/05/46981191.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/glonass-smartphones-coming-in-april/431155.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/glonass-smartphones-coming-in-april/431155.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/glonass-smartphones-coming-in-april/431155.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/14/47393926.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/14/47393926.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/14/47393926.htmlhttp://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g0FOQIEPNXKhIHcODM3zMDbw8RBw?docId=CNG.f53933e3820d7b7224b41100056dd28f.6c1http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g0FOQIEPNXKhIHcODM3zMDbw8RBw?docId=CNG.f53933e3820d7b7224b41100056dd28f.6c1http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g0FOQIEPNXKhIHcODM3zMDbw8RBw?docId=CNG.f53933e3820d7b7224b41100056dd28f.6c1http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?y=2011&m=3&d=2&pg=5&id=226037http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?y=2011&m=3&d=2&pg=5&id=226037http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?y=2011&m=3&d=2&pg=5&id=226037http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41581968/ns/technology_and_science-space/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41581968/ns/technology_and_science-space/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41581968/ns/technology_and_science-space/http://www.space.com/11011-mock-mars-mission-leaves-red-planet.htmlhttp://www.space.com/11011-mock-mars-mission-leaves-red-planet.htmlhttp://www.space.com/11011-mock-mars-mission-leaves-red-planet.htmlhttp://www.space.com/http://www.space.com/http://www.space.com/http://www.space.com/http://www.space.com/11011-mock-mars-mission-leaves-red-planet.htmlhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41581968/ns/technology_and_science-space/http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?y=2011&m=3&d=2&pg=5&id=226037http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g0FOQIEPNXKhIHcODM3zMDbw8RBw?docId=CNG.f53933e3820d7b7224b41100056dd28f.6c1http://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://csis.org/program/north-caucasus-projecthttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/14/47393926.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/glonass-smartphones-coming-in-april/431155.htmlhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/05/46981191.htmlhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-02/28/c_13754499.htmhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1206/Russia-s-2-billion-project-to-rival-America-s-GPS-suffers-setback


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implementation of a number of key national projects and other large-scale government programswill also encourage the development of innovative industries.

Russian econ decline leads to Russia-Sino WarTRENIN 2(Dmitri, Deputy Director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Former

Russian Officer, After Eurasia, pp 308-309)

Usually, there is no shortage of dire predictions concerning Russias ultimate fate. In a characteristicexchange of views on the eve of the year 2000, a prominent Russian intellectual predicted Russiasdisintegration within 10 to 15 years.His European counterparts vision of Russia was that of Muscovywest of the Urals, with Siberia under Chinese control. The American scholar limited himself to thevision of a Sino-Russian war.11 If a doomsday scenario were to become a reality, this would bethe result of a major economic catastrophe. If Russia became a loose confederation, itsborderlands would gravitate in different directions, and governing Russia would require the art ofmanaging these very different orientations. In other words, Russia would still join the world, but itwould do so in less than one piece.\


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1NC- RUSSIA-US RELATIONS

US- Russia relations high now, but its tenuousWashington Post, 1/21. [Russia's Ryabkov on U.S.-Russia relations: 'We can offer tangible results, andwe will do more in the future' Washington Post< http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013105212.html>]

One of Ryabkov's areas of responsibility is security, and in that role he had just attended a meeting of a working group on armscontrol and international security of the so-called U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission, set up in 2009 by Obama and

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. With both nations' legislatures having approved the new StrategicArms Reduction Treaty, talks already have begun on the "complicated agenda" for what comesnext, he said. While U.S. officials have focused publicly on a nuclear treaty that would cover reducing the numbers of not juststrategic arms but also shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons, Ryabkov talked first about turning to the control of conventional

arms in Europe and reaching some predictability of forces on the continent. He said shaping the military relationshipson the ground, where Russia has vastly fewer troops and less equipment, would relate to thefuture of nuclear disarmament. He talked about the difficulty of finding the correct "platform" forany future agreements, saying that weapons in outer space, non-nuclear strategic weapons, othernuclear nations and missile defenses also have to be considered. He explained Moscow'sconcerns about missile defenses, which drew much attention during the U.S. Senate debate onthe START agreement. For years, Ryabkov said, the U.S. and Russia had discussed putting together a joint threatassessment of missile and nuclear threats. He concluded that it cannot be done. A stumbling block has been whetherthe U.S. development of missile-defense capabilities "would eventually be used in a way to affectthe nuclear posture of the Russian Federation," he said. The U.S. always said no, but the Russiananswer was "probably yes," in a way that "may endanger our nuclear forces," he added. The situation is different when itcomes to cooperation on theater missile defense, and the presidential commission working group discussed this in its recent

meeting, he said. Discussing the "reset" with the Obama administration, Ryabkov said, "We think thatthis administration . . . has been very frank with us about its own views," even when talking aboutRussian domestic activities.

US SMD hurts US-Russia relationsWPR, 10. (Jason Wood, journalist for the World Politics Review. The U.S.-Russia Space Relationshipand Future Space Securityhttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7300/the-u-s-russia-space-relationship-and-future-space-security]

Second, any future expansion of U.S. or NATO missile-defense capabilities will meet significantRussian objections. In the event that these objections precipitate or give way to substantiveaccommodations or cooperation on missile-defense architecture, both states will necessarily have tocollaborate on the development, testing, deployment and networking of space-based sensors andcommunications nodes. This collaboration cannot take place between adversaries. Third, the U.S.and Russia have everything to lose from adversarial relations in space. Any exoatmosphericengagement or attempt at interference would place substantial on-orbit assets at risk , regardlessof who "shot" first. For the U.S. in particular, these costs would extend beyond the military andintelligence realms, given the U.S. economy's reliance on space for communications, data processingand navigation. Reminiscent of the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, the U.S. and Russia cannotbe certain that an attack on an adversary's space assets will not have a similarly devastatingimpact on one's own systems. The indiscriminate nature of space debris and electromagnetic fields,

combined with the potential for escalation, greatly complicates the rationale of space conflict. Now and inthe future, the costs of an adversarial U.S.-Russia space relationship will grossly outweigh anyperceived benefit.
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Relations access warming and turn caseGraham 8 (Thomas Graham, foreign service officer on academic leave with RAND in Moscow from1997 to 1998. He previously had several assignments in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, including head ofthe Political/Internal Unit and acting political counselor. Between tours in Moscow, he worked onRussian/Soviet affairs as a member of the policy planning staff of the State Department and as a policyassistant in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Mr. Graham has a Ph.D. in political

science from Harvard University and a B.A. in Russian studies from Yale University. July 2008http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080717_graham_u.s.russia.pdf, AD: 9/22/10)

What trends? Simply put the world has entered a period of great flux and upheaval of uncertain duration. We are witnessing anhistoric shift in global dynamism from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, initially in the economic realm but one that will eventually

reorder the geopolitical realm. The Middle East - Or more broadly the muslim world - is engaged in an epic battlebetween tradition and modernization that jeopardizes global energy security. Although the nation-state,the fundamental unit of the international system since the Westphalian peace of 1648, is thriving in East Asia and the United States,it is under mounting strain as Europe seeks to create a supranational structure and artificial states in the Middle East begin to breakdown along sectarian and ethnic lines. Globalization has fueled an unprecedented period of economic growth around the worldwhile unleashing the forces of disorder - terrorism, transnational organizations to manage - global warming, pandemic disease,proliferation of the materials and know-how to build weapons of mass destruction. With the economic growth has come an historictransfer of wealth from the West to energy exporters, such as Russia, and rising manufacturing powers, such as China. In this

uncertain world, the United States and Russia are not strategic rivals, and neither poses a strategic threat to the other(despite some overwrought Russian rhetoric to the contrary), in contrast to the situation during the Cold War. Rather, they share a

set of common strategic challenges. Russia, by virtue of its geographic location, and the United States, byvirtue of its global role, must build new relationships with a Europe that is expanding and deepening they both mustfind a way to cope with growing instability in the Middle East, the challenge to energy security that implies, and,at least for Russia, the threat that that instability will infect Russia's southern reaches; and they both must manage relations with arising China. In addition, both countries must deal with the dark side of globalization, and both have a keen interest in the role andeffectiveness of the institutions of global government, such as the United Nations and the G-8, the World Bank, and the InternationalMonetary Fund. Common challenges, however, are not the same as common interests. And there are deep differences in the waythe United States and Russia think of global order (consider, for example, the role of democracy or the United Nations). But thequestion of each country needs to ask is how important the other is to achieving its own strategic goals. For example: Given theirstanding as the world's two leading nuclear powers, the United States and Russia are each indispensable to dealing with the

problems of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear terrorism, and strategic stability. The United States, as theworld's largest energy consumer, and Russia, as the largest producer of hydrocarbons, areessential to any discussion of energy security and energy's future . Global economic dynamics and transfersof wealth will require bringing Russia, along with China, India, and others, into a more central role in managing the global economy,

a service long performed by Europe and the United Stats. In East Asia, to create a favorable new equilibrium,

Russia has an interest in a strong power - that is, the United States - acting as a moderatinginfluence on China, and the United States has no interest in a weakening Russian presence inSiberia and the Russian Far East, regions rich in the natural resources that fuel moderneconomies. In the Middle East, both the United States and Russia have levers that could helppromote stability, if the two countries were working in concert, or fuel conflict, if they were not . InEurope, Russian energy is critical to economic well-being, and the United States remains essential to security and stability. On arange of other issues - for example, civil nuclear energy, pandemic disease, and climate change -each country is capable of making a major contribution, given the vast scientific talent of each. Inthe former Soviet space, both countries will be critical to building lasting security and economic structures.

ExtinctionTickel 8 (Oliver, , Climate Researcher. The Gaurdian, 8-11-2008 ,http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like

wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurdand dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal wordsthat Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps thebeginning of our extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringinglong-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete withports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world'sgeography would be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to createthe Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more

frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced.Billions would undoubtedly die. Watson's call was supported by the government's former chief scientific adviser, SirDavid King, who warned that "if we get to a four-degree rise it is quite possible that we would begin to see a runaway increase". This
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is a remarkable understatement. The climate system is already experiencing significant feedbacks, notablythe summer melting of the Arctic sea ice. The more the ice melts, the more sunshine is absorbed by the sea,and the more the Arctic warms. And as the Arctic warms, the release of billions of tonnes ofmethane a greenhouse gas 70 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years captured under melting permafrost isalready under way. To see how far this process could go, look 55.5m years to the Palaeocene-Eocene ThermalMaximum, when a global temperature increase of 6C coincided with the release of about 5,000 gigatonnes of carbon into theatmosphere, both as CO2 and as methane from bogs and seabed sediments. Lush subtropical forests grew in polar regions, andsea levels rose to 100m higher than today. It appears that an initial warming pulse triggered other warming processes. Many

scientists warn that this historical event may be analogous to the present : the warming caused by humanemissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.


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1NC- RUSSIA BMD

Russia sphere of influence growing now due to the space programZak, 08. [Anthony, editor of Russian Space Web. Russian Space Prgram: A Decade Review (2000-2010] Russian Space Web.http://www.russianspaceweb.com/russia_2000_2010.html]

In May 2001, a respectable American magazine published an apocalyptic prophesy entitled "Russia isFinished." Intellectualizing the conventional wisdom of the 1990s, the article confidently promised "the unstoppable descent of aonce great power into social catastrophe and strategic irrelevance." Little did the editors of the publication know thatjust a few months later, the only remaining superpower would be hit with the worst terrorist attackin its history, dragging its government into a protracted and costly conflict across the world. Oneof the unintended consequences of the post-September 11 global instability, combined with economic boom in Asia,became soaring oil prices, which quickly turned Russia's natural resources-driven economy frombust to boom. With the Kremlin coffers full with oil revenues, the Russian government managed not simply topostpone a "social catastrophe," but to take steps to reverse its "strategic irrelevance." On the international stage,Russian President Vladimir Putin made his official doctrine the creation of a "multi-polar world,"which would challenge America's military and economic dominance. By the end of his two terms in office,President Putin consolidated so much power in his hands that he could make his old secret service bosses red with envy. Putinpromised to use his new financial and political muscle to repair Russia's battered economy and

military might. In 2006, Russian military spending approached 600 billion rubles, or double of its annual budget in 2000. By theend of 2007, a Russian aircraft carrier group was heading back on patrol of the high seas, in a rare show of military power since theend of the Cold War. Strategic bombers, land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles resumed regular doomsday rehearsal

missions. Oil money also started trickling down into the previously underfunded space industry. Tothe delight of Russian space officials, increased funding was accompanied by President Putin's declarationthat "...without astronautics, Russia can not compete for one of the leading positions in theworld's civilization, and will not be able to provide its defense at a necessary level." (270) To restoreRussian presence beyond Earth, the Putin administration started drafting the nation's long-term space strategy. On October 22,2005, the Russian government signed a decree No. 635, approving Federal Space Program for 2006-2015 and worth 305 billionrubles. (299) The industry was directed to propose its projects and plan its activities in the timeframe of a two-phase Federal SpaceProgram, FKP: Short-term projects and goals until 2015-2020 Long-term projects planning for the period 2020-2040 The Russian

space budget continued growing during the 2000s, almost doubling by 2009. Manned space flightUnlike in the 1990s,cooperation with NASA was no longer a centerpiece of Russia's manned space program,reflecting the new political climate in the first years of the 21st century. Although the two space agencies werecontinuing working closely on the construction of the International Space Station, the program was increasingly becoming a lone

outpost of cooperation in the sea of unraveling hopes. America's bullish moves to stretch NATO toward Russian bordersand hastily deploy a missile defense system in Europe pushed relations between the two countries, in the words ofone American diplomat, "from bad to worse." On Feb. 10, 2007, at a major security conference in Munich, Germany,President Putin accused the United States of provoking a new nuclear arms race among other sins. Western pundits talkedof a new cold war, while state-controlled Russian TV was full of paranoia about Western conspiracies to weaken Russia. Insuch a climate, on both sides, rational ideas of building a common future for the world communitywere being replaced by chauvinistic urges for global economic domination and internationalprestige. At the beginning of 2004, NASA essentially declared its intention to divorce from Russia andEurope with its decision to withdraw from the International Space Station program and aim for the Moon instead. Unlike the ISS,all the crucial elements of the future American lunar infrastructure would be built domestically, with no reliance on foreign

contributions or major overseas contractors. Moon race: round two Although officially NASA left the door open tointernational participation in the lunar program, America's partners were left to decide for themselves about newdirections in space. As rising giants of Asia -- China and India -- made their intentions for exploring the Moon

loud and clear, Russia and Europe could hardly afford to stay on the sidelines of whatincreasingly resembled a new moon race. Not coincidently, during 2005 and 2006, the Russian space agency and itsEuropean partners rejected a proposal from the industry to build a new-generation reusable spacecraft, which would be best suitedfor operations in the low-Earth orbit. The idea of a new all-Russian space station fielded around the same time did get some tractionas a possible foundation for lunar and martian exploration, but only as a secondary goal. Instead, both Russian and European spaceofficials favored the concept of a lunar-oriented project, known as ACTS. To be developed cooperatively in Europe and Russia, thefuture program would include a new spacecraft capable of entering lunar orbit and, eventually, a lunar lander designed to del iverhumans on the surface of the Moon. Unlike the United States, Europe represented a natural partner for Russia, since the two sideshave been closely involved in every aspect of economic cooperation from energy to aviation for more than a decade. During the firstyears of the 21st century, Russia's chief spacecraft developer, RKK Energia, served as a major contractor in the development of theEuropean ATV cargo ship, designed to resupply the ISS.
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New BMD hurts arms control between the US and RussiaFord, 10. [Christopher, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Technology and Global Security atthe Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. Previously, he served as U.S. Special Representative forNuclear Nonproliferation, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, and General Counsel to the U.S.Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. A graduate of Harvard College, Oxford University (as a Rhodes

Scholar), and Yale Law School. New START and Missile Defense New Paradigms Forum. ]

It is certainly clear enough that Moscow approaches BMD issues with a considerable degree ofparanoia, viewing any U.S. capability to intercept ICBMs very negatively that is, with somethingbetween bitter distaste and outright alarm and regarding [t]he development of missile defense [asbeing] aimed against the Russian Federation. Even the most optimistic American assessment of thenew treatys impact on BMD, therefore, must anticipate that if we contemplate additional deploymentsof any significance, Russia will not be particularly shy about using every lever available to slow orprevent such developments, including threatening to abandon strategic arms control with theUnited States.

No limits on their arsenals make conflict inevitableCollins 9 (James, Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, and US Ambassador, A Chance for a Nuclear-Free World, Foreign Policy, 7/6,http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23356, AD: 2/8/10)

Two decades later, as U.S. President Barack Obama meets in Moscow with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and PrimeMinister Vladimir Putin, the agenda is similarly crowded, with concerns ranging from logistics in Afghanistan to the status of Russia's

satellite states. But as the Obama administration seeks a complete reset of the U.S.-Russia relationship,progress on nuclear weapons must still be the top priority. The political environment ondisarmament and nonproliferation has changed drastically in recent months. Both countries haveagreed in principle to work toward a world free of nuclear weapons. Talks to create a disarmamentmechanism to replace the expiring Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) are well underway. For the first time inmany years, it seems likely that the United States and Russia will make dramatic moves towardfulfilling their Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) disarmament obligations. Improved U.S.-Russiancooperation would be generally beneficial on a range of problems. But on no other issue does somuch depend on the agreements reached by just two countries. Combined, the United States andRussia account for more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons. If the two countries donot come to a strong and bold new agreement, then there will be no disarmament. Nor will therebe any real chance to preserve and strengthen the NPT. It is that simple. Some will say that arms-control treatiesare relics of the Cold War, but a new agreement can help us define the future. The successor to START need not be about control,but instead can focus on collaboration. The strategic purpose of the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals has evolved over the last

two decades. The two countries no longer stand unblinking on opposite sides of the ocean, facingeach other down with the threat of mutually assured destruction. Today, both sides can approachdisarmament as a cooperative global exercise with mutually beneficial outcomes. If START expires inDecember without a successor, there will be no agreed legal mechanism for controlling nuclear arsenals on both sides. This wouldbe far more costly and dangerous for the United States than any cuts in its own nuclear arsenal. The 2002 Treaty of Moscow(SORT) will remain in force, but it is not an adequate replacement since it has no verification mechanisms and can be easily ignored

by both parties. Disarmament is an exercise that is too complicated to occur on its own without a

formal agreement. Uncertainty breeds mistrust, which neither the United States nor Russia canafford right now. The absence of a formal agreement may not result in a new arms race, but eventhe specter of such a possibility is enough to make achieving other goals that much more difficult.

War with Russia ieads to extinctionBostrom 2-(Nick, Ph.D. Philosophy. Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9,http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and theUSSR. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with
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consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was areal worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon wouldoccur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization. Russiaand the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, eitheraccidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note however that asmaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an existential risk, since it would not

destroy or thwart humankinds potential permanently.


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*2NC UNIQUENESS*


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UQ: RUSSIA AEROSPACE

Russian aerospace technology is competitive nowAmerican export controlsmake them especially lucrative

Hennigan 6/15(W.J. Hennigan, aerospace writer for the LA Times, U.S. arms makers look overseas as domestic demand

shrinks, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/15/business/la-fi-weapon-exports-20110616/2, AM)

Although U.S. military technology is widely viewed as cream of the crop, it does not always winlucrative contracts overseas. In April, India announced its short list of bidders for about $10 billionin fighter jets, which bypassed American firms in favor of European ones. France makes sought-afterfighter jets. Britain is a leading tank builder, and Russia's airplanes, cargo carriers, missiles and bombs havelong been tough competition worldwide. At next week's Paris Air Show, one of the largest aerospace showcases,arms makers worldwide will compete to win some of the biggest foreign military deals. The Obama administration hasembarked on an initiative to reform export control that will roll back many of the restrictions onthe way weapons are sold to foreign countries. Northrop, which specializes in systems such as drones andcyber security, is supporting the change, saying it will help U.S. companies win contracts. "We have beenso focused on protecting our technological edge that we have actually done severe and unnecessary damage to our defenseindustrial base," Northrop Chief Executive Wesley G. Bush said at a recent conference in London. "To the credit of President

Obama's administration," he said, "the U.S. has finally started serious attempts to reform the laws and regulations governing ourexport control."

Russia is eating up market share nowParis air show provesGleeson 6/22(Bill, writer for the Liverpool Daily Post, Russia and China pose new threat to planemakers,http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/ldpbusiness/business-local/2011/06/22/russia-and-china-pose-new-threat-to-planemakers-92534-28918003/, AM)

RYANAIR yesterday signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese planemaker COMACthat covers the development of a medium- sized airliner over the next seven years. The new planewould potentially represent an alternative to Ryanairs traditionally favoured Boeings. Whether this memorandumamounts to much is a moot point. Many in the aviation industry see it as nothing more than the usual bluster that comesout of Dublin when Ryanair isnt getting its own way. The deal with COMAC needs to be seen in the context of Ryanairs failure to

screw down the price of Boeings or Airbus planes. On the other hand, it may turn out the memorandum represents

the start of a new era in the civil aerospace market. To date, airlines have been restricted to a simplechoice between buying from Americas Boeing or Europes Airbus. A third manufacturer would significantlychange the market place and in particular give airlines greater power when it comes to haggling over price. Nor might it end there.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was at the Paris airshow yesterday, raising the possibilitythat his country might also enter the fray. State-owned United Aircraft Corp, which owns Sukhoi, believes itcan become a serious force in the commercial market by 2025, pinning its hopes on its mid-sized MS-21/MC-21 airliner. That could create a fourth player in the plane manufacturing market, resulting in genuinecompetition from economies that are able to utilise much cheaper labour than is available inEurope and the US. Europes and Americas ascendancy in this market may be coming to an end.

Russian space spending increasing nowGPSworld 5/3(Online science news website, Putin Replaces Head of Russian Space Agency, Says Space a Priority,http://www.gpsworld.com/gnss-system/glonass/news/putin-replaces-head-russian-space-agency-says-space-a-priority-11579, AM)

About 153 billion rubles will be allocated to the national rocket and space industry this year,which is 30 percent more than in 2010, Putin said, adding that the branch has shown a 18 percentgrowth even despite the consequences of the global financial crisis. "We have the absolutecompetitive advantage in rocket engineering, many of our partners lag behind us, but in several spheres we have tocatch up." The Russian defense industry complex is globally competitive, the premier added.

Russian aerospace functioning on all cylinders nowaerospace moves proveRT 10(Russian Times, Revitalizing Russias aviation industry, http://rt.com/news/russia-aviation-industry-sukhoi/, AM)

Just ten years ago Russias aviation industry was all but grounded, but in the past five years thestate has increased funding twenty times. Russian aviation industry is being cleared for take-off once again. In the
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beginning of this decade, Russias civil aircraft production had had its wings clipped so much that no more than a dozen or soplanes limped off the production lines each year a far cry from the heady heights of the USSR, when Soviet jets thrust for

dominance in the skies against Boeings and Airbuses, making up a quarter of the worlds fleet. In 2006, the Russiangovernment decided to do something about this jet lag and created the United AircraftCorporation, or UAC, consolidating aircraft construction companies and state assets in theindustry. Today, Russian plane-makers even say they are ready to eat into the lucrative market ofthe world leaders, Airbus and Boeing. Our main problem is that we have fallen terrifyingly behind in terms of

technology,admits UAC President Aleksey Fedorov, all our enterprises especially aircraft manufacturers and designers needto be massively re-equipped with the very latest equipment. That will take a lot of investment and we hope with the help of the statewell make that break-through that will allow us to compete with the worlds leadingproducers.And while a brand spanking newrange of all-singing, all-dancing Russian-made passenger jets is still far from taking off, there's much hope on the horizon.

Despite many problems, those dealing with them on the ground are convinced the lowest point ofthe crisis has already passed, and they believe theres a bright future for the Russian aviationindustry. The Sukhoi Superjet-100 is Russias first post-Soviet middle-range passenger jet. Sukhois chief-pilot AleksandrYablontsev, who with more than 30 years of experience, was the man at the controls on its maiden flight. He speaks of it withfondness and it seems he's not the only one. 120 orders have already been made for the new bird, and the first planes are expectedto be handed over by the end of the year. We have tried to compile all the best things in this piece of machinery and I can see itcoming out well. I have experience of flying similar types of planes in Russia and abroad, so I can compare,assures Yablontsev,and it shows me the Superjet is a great result. The quality isvery good. It also makes me believe in our designers and others

working in the industry.The Superjet is just the beginning though. For the UAC, bigger appears to bebetter, and it's setting its sights on the much more lucrative mid-range jet market- and flying theRussian industry right into the heart of Boeing and Airbuses main territory.Depending on how Russias

economy recovers, I think well be able to produce competitive products by around 2015-16,forecasts Oleg Panteleyev of Aviaport.By 2017 at the latest, well definitely have the next fully-competitive product laying claim to one of the broadest market segments

that's a mid-range jet with a capacity of 150-212 passengers.So after a turbulent few years, Russia's aviationindustry appears to have cleared the storms created by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and willbe hoping it has the products that'll fly in the fleets of airlines around the world.

Industry viable nowBloomberg 4/5(Financial News Service, Russia Speeds Up Space Mission Plans as U.S. May Cut Spending, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-04/russia-speeds-up-moon-mars-plans-as-u-s-may-cut-space-funds.html, AM)

Russia may accelerate planned missions to the moon and Mars as it seeks to maintain its leadover China in space exploration and close the gap with the U.S. Russia may start manned flights to the moonby the end of the decade, 10 years earlier than previously planned, and establish a base there by 2030, according to Russias

Roscosmos space agency. Russia may also send a man to Mars by 2040. It is the first time that the government hasallocated decent financing to us, Anatoly Perminov, head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, said in a phoneinterview on April 2. The agencys $3.5 billion budget for 2011 has almost tripled since 2007, reachingthe highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. We can now advance on all themes a bit, Perminovsaid. Unlike 50 years ago, when beating the U.S. into space marked a geopolitical victory in the Cold War, Russia is focusingon the commercial, technological and scientific aspects of space travel. President Dmitry Medvedev hasnamed aerospace one of five industries the government plans to nurture to help diversify the economy of the worlds largest energy

supplier away from resource extraction. We are increasing the space budget as the time has come for atechnological breakthrough,Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said by phone yesterday.We need to replace outdated infrastructure and continue to support the flagship status of thespace industry.

Space sector solid nowKislyakov 12/19(Andrei, writer for Voice of Russia, New impulse to Russian space rockets, http://english.ruvr.ru/radio_broadcast/36564197/37256125.html, AM)

Russias space industry is ending the year without mishaps. Although old headaches and problems are stillthere, things have not changed for the worse, and, in our troubled times, that is quite an achievement. Despite the crisis, Russiais leading the world in rocket launches. Russia made 27 launches in 2008, one more than in 2007 and 32 launcheslast year caring into orbit 29 domestic and 20 foreign payloads. This is a post-Soviet record. The Americans droppedmarkedly behind, with 14 launches, including one unsuccessful attempt, the Falcon-1. In Januaryto October this year, 85 satellites were injected into space, with the largest number, 35, launchedby Russia. In this case, however, it acted as a traditional freighter and orbited more foreign satellites than its own. Unfortunately,in spite of the fact that Russia leads the world in rocket launches, it is still using technology created fifty years ago. Its rockets are

robust, but, there is a limit to everything. It seems it is time to roll out new launch vehicles. At the same time, it is hard todisagree with the Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos) that launch services require hightechnologies, of the same type that are used to develop nano-products, and Roscosmos is
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determined to stay ahead despite the global crisis. It is common wisdom that most efforts are needed where successis assured. Russias space navigation system - Glonass is a nice example of that. Its 26 satellites are to be joined by three more by

the end of the year covering all of Russia. Good progress was reported on the ground. The terrestrialinfrastructure for space monitoring has been improved and space findings are being used withgreater effectiveness. It is also gratifying that college and university students are actively joining the effort. In 2008, threeRussian universities, the Siberian and Southern Federal universities and Tyumen State University, set up space monitoring centers.The technologies they are using were developed in Russia by the Scan X Engineering Technology Center. The centers serve to

observe the environment in Russias regions from space. But, to be effective, they need a large number of remote-sensing satellites, which are unfortunately lacking. However, next years plans include launchingmore Earth and weather satellites. If everything goes well, Russia will acquire its own constellation ofweather satellites by 2013. Given a large and upgraded fleet of rockets and spacecraft of all types, Russia maybecome the absolute space leader at the beginning. To achieve this, the Russian government promised to replaceits key space assets, inherited from the former USSR, with a brand-new triad of space infrastructure for the 21st century. In addition

to a next-generation manned spaceship, Russia committed to build a new launch site and a fleet of rocketswith a wide range of capabilities. By the end of 2007, we had made the potentially momentous decision to develop a newlaunch facility for manned missions in the nation's Far East. On November 6 that year, President Putin signed a decreeon the creation of the Vostochny ("Eastern") launch site in the Russian Far East. When built, thenew launch site would mark a historic shift of the Russian manned space program from BaikonurCosmodrome in Kazakhstan to its own territory. From the moment the Soviet Union disintegrated in December1991, Russian officials have promised to abandon Baikonur and shift operations to the existing launch site in Plesetsk and to a

newly built facility in the Far East. However, the severe financial crisis of the 1990s stalled all these plans. More than a

decade later, record-high oil prices allowed Moscow's ambitions in space be more realistic. Thecreation of the new launch si te aimed to end Russian dependency on Kazakhstan, whose government charged multi-million-dollarannual fees for the rent of Baikonur. The price tag of the whole undertaking (apparently including the development of the launch site,a new family of launch vehicles and a next-generation spacecraft was estimated at $ 60 billion. "Are you kidding when talking abouta new family of launch vehicles and spacecraft? you may ask. Not at all. The Energomash Science and Production Association hasdeveloped the new RD-191 rocket engine, meant to equip Angara advanced carrier rockets, ready for mass production. Why is this

development unique? The high cost of putting a payload into space has always been a headache forlaunch customers. Huge and expensive multistage rockets are burnt up in just one launch. Fordecades Russian and Western engine building specialists have been wrestling with the problemof developing a re-useable rocket engine which could be brought back to Earth for further useafter having worked its portion of flight. The oxygen-kerosene RD-191 is a further development of the RD-170-180family. RD-180s are exported to the United States, where they are widely used to equip American-made Atlas carrier rockets. TheRD-191 is a highly versatile engine, capable of working in two modes, both as first-stage and second-stage engine. Russianengineers added a limited amount of hydrogen to the oxygen-kerosene fuel, and managed to achieve simultaneous and stablecombustion of all the three components. The new engine was originally developed as a re-useable one. When other engines are

used, the burnt-out stages fall down to Earth, posing a serious threat both to the ecology of the impact areas and people's lives. TheRD's recoverability and repeated use will cut payload deployment costs several times over. To be fair, it should be said that theAmericans were the first to demonstrate the feasibility of a re-useable liquid-fuel rocket engine. In the mid 1990's, a small DeltaClipper single-stage rocket lifted off the launch pad and successfully returned. However, the Americans decided to exploit theirsuccess, joining forces with Russia. Between 1994 and 1995, Energomash specialists worked on a joint program to develop a re-useable rocket engine. Soon, however, the U.S. abstained on accepting Russian services, and classified all work in the field. Boeingwas working on a multi-billion dollar Space Launch Initiative program to develop an advanced re-usable launch vehicle.

Simultaneously, NASA tendered development of a next generation re-useable carrier rocket. TheEuropean Space Agency also tried to develop re-usable engines. However, neither NASA norEurope seemed to have obtained any significant results. In the near future, Russia is likely to havea variety of Angara carrier rockets fitted with RD engines, capable of deploying payloads of between 1.5 and 30tons in low earth orbit. Therefore, the global launch services market can count on Russia for the next fewdecades.

America already falling behind Russia in the international aerospace marketRecent India deals proveIW 6/23(Indian Weekender, Mother of All Deals,http://www.indianweekender.co.nz/Pages/ArticleDetails/10/2430/India/Mother-of-all-deals, AM)

Billed as one of the largest defence deals ever globally, Indias planned purchase of 126 mediummulti-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) has entered the final phase of its selection procedure. Theprocess had begun in 2005,with the Indian Air Force (IAF) issuing a request for information (RFI) for new jetfighters toreplace the vintage Soviet-era MiG-21s that had been its mainstay since their induction in the early 80s. The presentestimate of $10.4 billion is likely to escalate as the full scope of the warplane and its attendantservices becomes clearer.The IAF is already hamstrung by a depleting fleet, having just 31 squadrons of serviceable
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aircraft that fall far short of its targeted 39. Bordering both Pakistan and China, India requires to build up its defences accordingly, tothwart a two-front assault if need be in the worst case scenario. Having embarked upon a military modernisation programme, this

country of 1.2 billion is expected to spend more than $35 bil lion over the next five years on defence acquisitions. Indiasblossoming ties with the United States formalised with the March 2006 signing of the bilateral civil nuclearcooperation agreement - brought in American firms Lockheed Martin, with its F-16IN Super Viper, andBoeing Integrated Defence Systems, with its F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, in response to the request for proposal (RFP)floated by the IAF in August 2007. The other four contenders were Frances Dassault Aviation, with its

offering of Rafale, Swedish aerospace company Saabs JAS-39 Gripen, European consortiumEurofighter GmbHs Typhoon and the Russian Mikoyan-Gurevich Corporations MiG-35. Recently,Indias Ministry of Defence (MoD), however, shortlisted or down selected - the 24.5-tonneRafale and the 23.5-tonne Typhoon as finalists for the MMRCA sweepstakes. One of them will ultimatelybe awarded the contract by September. Analysts were perplexed by the Defence ministrys move, as theywidely anticipated that the final decision would be a political one rather than one premised onmilitary and security considerations. After all, New Delhis earnestness to repay Washington for itsnuclear benevolence has already made the US Indias third largest defence supplier, after Russiaand Israel. US firms have already won almost $8 billion in defence sales within the last four years, starting with the $50 milliontransfer to the Indian Navy in June 2007 of the amphibious transport ship, INS Jalashwa, commissioned into the US Navy in 1971

as USS Trenton. Clouding the situation was American ambassador to India, Timothy Roemers, abruptresignation the very next day after Lockheed and Boeing were eliminated from the competition. Hehad made an American choice a priority, especially in light of a letter US President Barack Obama had written to Indian PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh that indicated that favouring Lockheed or Boeing would cement the Indo-US strategic partnership and be

mutually beneficial in creating thousands of jobs in both the countries. Pentagon spokesperson, Col. Dave Lapan,affirmed, We are deeply disappointed by this news, but we look forward to continuing to growand develop our defence partnership with India. He was not off the mark. The Indian Parliaments CabinetCommittee on Security (CCS), at a meeting chaired by the Prime Minister last week, cleared a $4.1 billion deal with Boeing for 10 C-17 Globemaster-III giant strategic airlift aircraft for the IAF. The ultimate deal could be for 16 of them and would top $5.8 billion.

The US itself - with the worlds largest defence budget, of $895 billion, compared to Indias $33 billion - findsthese aircraft exorbitant ($200 million each, without spares and training) and has stopped its purchase. The dealwith India will, however, save 23,000 American jobs, an aspect noted by Ambassador Roemer himself. Boeing will also be supplyingeight P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft for the Indian Navy in a $2.1 billion deal signed in January 2009.

No room for transitionstatus quo powers dominate the marketBloomberg 6/22(Financial News Service, Airbus, Boeing still rule at show; smaller rivals make little dent,http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015398755_airshowduopoly23.html, AM)

The Airbus-Boeing airliner duopoly survived the Paris Air Show intact as challengers from Canada,China, Brazil and Russia offered little evidence they'll break the pair's stranglehold on single-aislejets. Bombardier's CSeries won 30 orders from Korean Air Lines and an unnamed carrier before the program took a blow: QatarAirways shelved a deal and Republic Airways Holding of the U.S. bought Airbus's rival A320neo, casting doubt on a contract for 40

of the Montreal-based company's jets.Russia's SuperJet won a single 12-plane deal, while Brazilianregional jet maker Embraer said it will wait for Boeing's next move in the narrowbody marketbefore deciding whether to go ahead with a 150-seater.Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China's C919 may be mostlikely to mount a challenge after enlisting Ryanair Holdings as a development partner, though the Irish discount carrier is also in

talks with Boeing, and analysts said a deal for the Chinese model is unlikely. "Going up against Boeing and Airbus inhead-to-head competition is really tough, not only because of their size, but because of theirexisting product line and industrial capacity," Embraer Chief Executive Frederico Curado said in an interview inParis. "They can have a very quick response and literally flood the market." All four contenders are seekinga slice of the biggest part of a global airliner market estimated at $4 trillion over the next 20 years. Airbus' neo, already the Europeancompany's fastest-selling plane, won more than 300 orders during the first three days of the Paris show, bringing commitments

since the jet's December launch to more than 600. Boeing, which says it will take the rest of the year to decidebetween re-engining and an all-new model, still clawed in 75 orders for the 737. Louis Gallois, CEO ofAirbus parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space, said at a briefing in Paris that he expects some of the new models in the

100-seat-plus sector to fail. "Can the market accept six single-aisle plane makers? I'm sure the smallestwill have to buckle," he said.
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UQ: RUSSIA SPACE

Russian space leadership high after US abandonmentInterfax-AVN 10 corporate-owned Russian military news agency (2/3/2010, Russia's spaceexploration plans won't change - agency chief, Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Lexis) MGM

Moscow, 2 February: The head of Roskosmos [Russian Space Agency], Anatoliy Perminov, has said that the UnitedStates' abandonment of its lunar programme will not bring about changes to the Russian spacepolicy."Our programme for the near future did not include the development of lunar settlements. We need not be swaying fromside to side," Perminov said at the Security Technologies exhibition commenting on the latest space policy decisions by the US

administration. The head of Roskosmos said that a number of decisions taken by the US president "fullycoincide" with the Russian and European vision of the prospects for space activities. [The head ofRoskosmos' manned programmes, Aleksey Krasnov, has said, as quoted by Interfax-AVN: "We need some time to understand what

is happening in the USA. I think that all the partners will start thinking about it. Because this has once again confirmedthat initiatives like the lunar programme initiative of Bush (former US President George Bush Jr - Interfax-AVN),in terms of expenditures their implementation requires, are unmanageable even for an economyas developed as that of the USA. This is a very serious signal to everyone." US decisionopportunity for Russia to become world leader in space explorationIn the meantime, Yuriy Kara,corresponding member of Russia's Tsiolkovskiy Academy of Cosmonautics, has told Interfax-AVN that the US decision to

scrap its lunar programme has presented Russia with an opportunity to become the world leaderin manned space programmes: "I think that Russia is getting a fantastic carte blanche to pick upthe banner of space leadership which is falling out of the hands of the United States." "Russia shouldfocus its efforts on Mars and become not a relative but the absolute space leader," he said.]

Russias ahead in satellite launchesINA 3/4Interfax News Agency (3/4/2011, Russia did twice as many space launches as U.S. in 2010,Russia & CIS Military Weekly, Lexis) MGM

MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russia has 114 satellites in orbit, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said at the Mondaymeeting of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) Board. "Russia remains the leader in the number of spacelaunches. We performed 31 launches last year, while the United States, which ranked second,performed 16," he said. "Twenty-three satellites were put into orbit in 2010, and the orbiting cluster grew to 114 units of defense,civilian and dual use," Ivanov said. The development of prospective delivery vehicles has intensified. "Firstand foremost, these are the Angara and Rus-M rockets. Land-based infrastructure is growing, too. I am implying the beginning ofconstruction of the Vostochny spaceport," Ivanov said.

The US is ceding space to Russia nowRIA Novosti 4/11 Russian and international news from the state news agency (4/11/2011, USLeaves Space For Russia, http://www.space-travel.com/reports/US_Leaves_Space_For_Russia_999.html) MGM

By the end of this year, NASA will no longer be able to send humans into space. According to BarackObama's plan, responsibility will go to private companies, which are expected to come up with cheaper ways to ferryastronauts to low-Earth orbit. "They know they have a big step to take if they are going to put humans into space... They have a lot

of work to do," says NASA Astronaut Sunita Williams. No one can say for sure when the private Americancompanies will come up with a new spaceship. For years to come, it will be the Russian Soyuz

spacecraft, which is going to be the only means for people to reach the International SpaceStation, which is perfectly fine with the leaders of Russia and the US, but does not sit well with manyAmericans.

Russia space leadership now Moon, ISS, MarsSRAS 10 The School of Russian and Asian Studies(2/10/2010, Russia May Become 'Absolute'Leader in Space Exploration,http://www.sras.org/russia_may_become_absolute_leader_in_space_exploration) MGM

MOSCOW. Feb 2 (Interfax-AVN) - The U.S. administration's decision to abandon ambitious space explorationprograms, including a manned Lunar mission in 2020, is giving Russia a chance to strengthen its


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position in manned space flight projects, Yuri Kara, a member of Russia's TsiolkovskyCosmonautics Academy, told Interfax-AVN. "In my opinion, Russia has received an amazing carteblanche in order to take over the 'flag' of the leadership in space exploration from the UnitedStates," Kara said. On Monday, President Barack Obama announced in his 2011 budget request that hewould cancel U.S. plans to send humans back to the moon, saying the project was too expensive. In thenext 5-7 years, Russia will be the only country capable of delivering crewmembers to the

International Space Station. But

Russia should also start working on a manned mission to Mars,the expert said. "Today, Russia needs to focus its efforts on the Mars program. The time has comefor it to become the absolute space leader ," Kara said. In this case, "other states will join" spaceexploration projects implemented by Russia, he said. "I am not speaking about Russia's monopoly on this area. Butit [Russia] has been playing a leading role and, consequently, it will be able to determine theconfiguration of the future Mars mission," he added.

Putin is committing to Russias space program nowRIA Novosti 4/30 Russian and international news from the state news agency (4/30/2011, Putincalls development of space industry Russia's top priority,http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20110430/163794807.html) MGM

Development and advancement of the national rocket and space industry is a priority for Russia,

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Saturday. "From the perspective of the country's defensive capacitythe rocket and space industry...is an absolute priority along with the nuclear industry and its military branch,"Putin said during a meeting with scientists from Penza's Research Institute of Physical Measurements. About 153 billionrubles will be allocatedto the national rocket and space industry this year, which is 30 percent higher than in2010, Putin said, adding that the branch has shown a 18 percent growth even despite the consequences of the global financialcrisis. "We have the absolute competitive advantage in rocket engineering, many of our partners lagbehind us, but in several spheres we have to catch up." On the whole, the Russian defense industrycomplex is globally competitive, the premier added.

Russia is regaining leadership in spaceHUFFPOST 4-10-2011(Russia Plans Space Program Expansion And Moon Base By 2030: Reports,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/10/russia-space-program-expansion-_n_846702.html)Russia is planning a massive increase in its space launches and may even build a base on themoon as part of a manned mission to Mars in the next two decades, according to reports. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin saidThursday that his country's plans go well beyond transporting crews to the International Space Station.With a 2010-2011 space budget estimated at 200 billion rubles ($7.09 billion), Russia is the world'sfourth-largest spender on space after U.S. space agency NASA, the European Space Agency and France, Reuters reports. "Russiashould not limit itself to the role of an international space ferryman. We need to increase our presence on the global spacemarket," Putin is quoted as having said at his residence outside Moscow. The meeting was planned specifically to coincide with the 50thanniversary of Yuri Gagarin's pioneering space flight. Other reports cite official documents which claim a manned Russian mission toMars could be possible in 2030 following the creation of a moon base. "Above all, we are talking about flights tothe moon and the creation of a base close to its north pole where there is likely to be a source of water," read one of the documents, according to the

Telegraph. Russian scientists are also said to have touted the moon as a potential source of energy, saying itcontains large reserves of helium 3, a sought-after isotope that may be the key to a new way of generating power.

Russia is regaining leadership in space

DEUTSCHE WELLE 2010(Russian space program on the rise, Nov 3, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6185232,00.html)

The Russian space industry, which had become a shadow of itself after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is once againenjoying state support. The government has increased spending on the space industry by 40percent for each of the past five years. In 2009, it received a record $2.8 billion . Russian Prime MinisterVladimir Putinalso confirmedthis fall that Russia's new $800 million Vostochny cosmodorome in the country's Far Eastshould be up and running by 2015. "I must say that the construction of the new space center, commissioned in2007, is one of the biggest and most ambitious initiatives in Russia today," he said in a speech earlier this year."Not only will it confirm Russia's status as a technological leader and boost its potenti

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