rural rural ––urban systems and urban systems and ... · biomass energy demand - supply 400 –...
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LIEM-Hawaii Meeting21-22 May, 2009
Rural Rural ––Urban Systems and Urban Systems and Industrial Ecology: Industrial Ecology:
Case Studies in Japan and AsiaCase Studies in Japan and AsiaCase Studies in Japan and AsiaCase Studies in Japan and Asia
Osamu SaitoOsamu SaitoWaseda Institute for Advanced Study Waseda Institute for Advanced Study
Waseda UniversityWaseda University
OutlineOutline1. Rural – Urban Systems through Biomass Utilization in Asia
(1) Urban-Rural Linkages through Biomass Utilization in Asia(2) Key Issues on Rural-Urban Systems in Asia(2) Key Issues on Rural Urban Systems in Asia
2. Changes in Biomass Material Flow(1) Biomass material flow in Vietnam’s Mekong Deltag(2) Biofuel production in Malaysia(3) Biomass material flow in Japan
3 A i l l l d d i i J3. Agricultural landscape and ecosystem services in Japan(1) Satoyama (Japanese traditional agricultural landscape) and its ecosystem
services in Japanp(2) Changes in Satoyama and ecosystem services
4. Sustainability of Resort Industry in Japan(1) Resort development in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area(2) Redundant golf courses(3) Restructuring the redundant golf courses and its environmental and
2
(3) Restructuring the redundant golf courses and its environmental and social impacts
2
Rural Rural –– Urban Systems through Biomass Utilization in AsiaUrban Systems through Biomass Utilization in AsiaWhile the world-wide demand for biomass such as biofuel made of corn sugarcane and oil palmof corn, sugarcane and oil palm is growing, it is predicted that unused agricultural residues and abandoned arable land maabandoned arable land may increase in developing countries due to changes in diet and rural f ifarming systems. Biomass use matters relationship between rural and urban areas not only through material and energy exchanges, but also through history culture traditionthrough history, culture, tradition and social context of each region or country.
33
UrbanUrban--Rural Linkages through Biomass Utilization:Rural Linkages through Biomass Utilization:Four Layers of U b A Rural AreasFour Layers of
Urban-Rural LinkageFuel woodTree Plantation
Forest & Timber Residues
Agricultural ResiduesFood Food Consumption
Organic WasteTransportation
Urban Areas Rural Areas
Energy &Energy Consumption
Diet changeEnergy Crop Plantation
Forest & Timber ResiduesFertilizer & Chemicals
Transportation Systems
Energy & Resources
Machines & EquipmentsDrinking Water
Agricultural Water
g
Economy & I d t
Primary Industry Secondary & Tertiary Industry
Uncertainty & SeasonalityOil Price Fluctuation Biomass Industry
Biomass UtilizationBiomass
Utilization Surplus Labor
Industry y y
Labor migration, Informal population
Trade Markets Modernizationy
PovertyTradition & Heritage
Socio-CultureUrbanization Sprawl
Regionalization/LocalizationGlobalization
Health & Gender
o a popu at o
Aging
Home Land Planning &
Biomass PolicyModern lifestyle
Rural Landscape
Ecosystem &Conservation groups
CO i k DeforestationSoil degradation
River Basin
Catchment AreaProduct Pollutants/Health
4
Ecosystem & Environment GHGs emissions CO2 sink
Wildlife HabitatSpecies Pool
Abandoned land Deforestation
Heat IslandRegulating Service
BiodiversityCertification
4
In terms of Land Use:In terms of Land Use:
Urban Areas Rural Areas
PlantationIndustrial Area Power Plant
Residential
PlantationForest
Resort
Transportation
Area
Agricultural Land
Resort Urban Center
Residential Area
Road
Agricultural LandChannel/River/ Pond/ Lake
PastureSuburbSchool/ Hospital
55
IssuesIssuesFour Layers of
1) Food and Bioenergy2) Waste and Bioenergy
Four Layers of Urban-Rural Linkage
Energy &
Major issues
2) Waste and Bioenergy3) Water4) Motorization
Energy & Resources
5) Economic Growth and Industrial Structure6) Globalization and Regionalization
Economy & I d t 6) Globalization and Regionalization
7) Technology Development and DiffusionIndustry
8) Individualism and Social Integration 9) Urbanization and Symbolic Rurality 10) Rural Abandonment
Socio-Culture)
11) Coheision and Fragmentation12) Environmental SustainabilityEcosystem &
6
12) Environmental Sustainability13) Regulation and Certification
Ecosystem & Environment
6
Key Issues regarding RuralKey Issues regarding Rural--Urban Systems:Urban Systems:Common issues Energy and resources management,
globalization and economic growth (Economy &Industry)
Key issues for JapanRural abandonment, symbolic rurality, fragmentation, redundancy of , y y, g , y
rural infrastructures, accumulated large forest biomass stock and high dependency on timber and food imports
K i f ChiKey issues for ChinaIncrease in biomass waste (agricultural residues and MSW) , water shortage, motorization, industrial structure and lifestyle changes, rapid g , , y g , purbanization and labor migration from poor rural areas
Key issues for Vietnam Similar to China, but almost a decade behind China. Food, waste, motorization (especially motorcycles) , industrial structure, urban sprawl and basic infrastructure construction and technology diffusion
7
gy
7
2 Ch i Bi M i l Fl2 Ch i Bi M i l Fl2. Changes in Biomass Material Flow2. Changes in Biomass Material Flow
(1) Bi i l fl i Vi ’ M k D l(1) Bi i l fl i Vi ’ M k D l(1) Biomass material flow in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta(1) Biomass material flow in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta(2) Biofuel production in Malaysia(2) Biofuel production in Malaysia
8
(3) Biomass material flow in Japan(3) Biomass material flow in Japan8
(1) Material flow of biomass in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta(1) Material flow of biomass in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta
99
Major biomass sources in VietnamMajor biomass sources in Vietnam
BIOMASS
Wood Residues Livestock Crop residues Municipal wastes
Nat
Pla
Sca
Wo
by-
Oth
Hou
Liv
Agr
Agr
Res
ma
Slusewtural Forest
anted Forest
attered Tree
ood processi-product
her Wooden
usehold Liv
vestock Farm
ricultural W
ro-industrie
sidential, coarket w
astes
udge of mun
wer system
t t s ing
n Wastes
vestock
m Wastes
es omm
ercial,
icipal
10
3 main biomass sources in Mekong DeltaSource: N.H.Chau – Present status on biomass energy research and development in Vietnam – 2nd Biomass Asia Workshop, 2005
10
Biomass Biomass energy potential in Mekong Deltaenergy potential in Mekong Delta
650
1% 8%
1%
- 91% energy potential comes from agricultural residues
- 8% from firewood and forest residues- 1% from human and animal wastes
550
600
PJ)
1%7%
1%
8%
1% 8%
1% 8%
8%
1%1% from human and animal wastes
500
550
pote
ntia
l (P
8%
1%7%
1%7%
1%
8%
1%
450
Ener
gy p
9%
1%
9%
1%
91%
8%
92% 92%92%
92% 91%92%
91%91%
50
400 90% 91%
91%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
50
Years
90% 91% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 91% 92% 91% 91%
11
Years
Agricultural residues Firewood & forestry residues Human & husbandry manures11
H di ft b i k
Biomass material flow in Mekong Delta
Household cooking
Handicraft brickmaking
Rice drying
On-farm open burning
Others
Fungi production
Using data from other studies
Leave at farm
Fungi production
Animal feeding
Direct household survey
Sugar production
Treat as MSW
Household
survey Household cooking
cooking
Gardening and crop cultivation
Direct discharge
12
g
SUPPLY SIDE CONVERSION PROCESSES DEMAND SIDE 12
Biomass potential and consumption projectionBiomass potential and consumption projectionRice husk and rice straw are not fully utilized
Biomass energy demand - supply
400
– low density characteristic
– Scattered sources 300
350
PJ) Energy supply
ability
Difficult to collect, handle and store
High transportation cost200
250
uiva
lent
(P
Biomass net surplus value (NSV)
Insufficient handling and utilization negative impacts on the environment
100
150
Ener
gy e
q
Energy
Depending on the extent of urbanization, biomass-based energy 0
50
100E gydemand
urbanization, biomass based energy supply will decrease by 3.1 – 22.2% in 2030
02005 2010 2020 2030
Low urbanization scenarioM di b i ti i
13
Medium urbanization scenario
High urbanization scenario
(2) Biofuel production in Malaysia(2) Biofuel production in MalaysiaPalm oil is the most produced vegetable oil in the world in terms of production – 37terms of production – 37 million tones (Oil World, 2006)Malaysia and Indonesia account for 86% of global palm oil production
1414
Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)RSPO’s Principles and Criteria (P&C):
1. Commitment to transparency2. Compliance with application laws and regulationsp pp g3. Commitment to long-term economic and financial viability4. Use of appropriate best practices by growers and millers5. Environmental responsibility and conservation of natural resources and 5. v o e a espo s y a co se va o o a a eso ces a
biodiversity6. Responsible consideration for employees and for individuals and communities
affected by growers and mills7. Responsible development of new plantings8. Commitment to continuous improvement in key areas of activity
RSOP certified palm oil entered market in September 2008 and close to 1.5 million tones are expected to be in the market by end 2008. The volume will reach 2 million tones by the end of 2009 which accounts for 5 % of the worldreach 2 million tones by the end of 2009, which accounts for 5 % of the world palm oil production .RSPO membership: 264Ordinary and 92 Affiliate members (as of May 2009),
i f 40% f l il d i i h ldaccounting for 40% of palm oil production in the world
1515
Volumes of RSPO certified palm oil to April 2009Volumes of RSPO certified palm oil to April 2009
Company Country Mills CPO (mt) PK (mt)United Plantations Berhad Malaysia 6 185 324 50 195United Plantations Berhad Malaysia 6 185,324 50,195New Britain Palm Oil (NBPOL) PNG 4 257,338 62,181Sime Darby Malaysia 5 218,636 52,823Kulim Bhd Malaysia 3 88,914 24,943Wilmar/PPB Oil Palms Malaysia 3 122,900 27,400PT Musim Mas Indonesia 2 135 000 31 250PT Musim Mas Indonesia 2 135,000 31,250IOI Corp Malaysia 1 70,000 16,500SIPEF/ Hargy Oil Palms Ltd PNG 2 180,122 41,000gyCargill/PT Hindolie Indonesia 2 51,344 12,122Kuala Lumpur Kepong-KDC Malaysia 2 92,000 22,000PT L d S t I d i 4 169 480 PKOPT London Sumatra Indonesia 4 169,480 PKOTOTAL 34 1,571,056 340,414
(3) Material flow of biomass and its changes in Japan(3) Material flow of biomass and its changes in Japan
Resource ProductivityResource ProductivityResource ProductivityResource Productivity--Reducing nonrenewable Reducing nonrenewable resources consumptionresources consumption--Utilizing recyclable resources Utilizing recyclable resources positively in production systempositively in production systempositively in production systempositively in production system
Final Disposal AmountFinal Disposal Amount
Cyclical Use RateCyclical Use Rate
Final Disposal AmountFinal Disposal Amount--Reducing the amount of incineration Reducing the amount of incineration and landfill disposaland landfill disposal-- Recovering recyclable resources Recovering recyclable resources f tf tCyclical Use RateCyclical Use Rate
--Lengthening materials /products utilization Lengthening materials /products utilization time (leasing, sharing, design for time (leasing, sharing, design for maintainability)maintainability)utilizing of the recovered materials/products inutilizing of the recovered materials/products in
from wastesfrom wastes
Ministry of the Environment: Fundamental Plan for Establishing A Sound Material-Cycle Society, <http://www.env.go.jp/en/rep/waste/plan_sound.pdf>
--utilizing of the recovered materials/products in utilizing of the recovered materials/products in original and principal production system original and principal production system
17
Major biomass waste emission and utilization in Japan(2005)Major biomass waste emission and utilization in Japan(2005)
Livestock waste: 89 mill. t 90% used for compost 10% Unused
Food waste: 22 mill. t20%
feedstuff80% Unused
10%Timber mill residues: 5 mill. t 90% used for energy and compost 10%
Unused
60% d f l d 40% UnusedConstruction wood waste: 4.6 mill. t
60% used for pulp and animal spreading material
40% Unused
64% used for construction 36% UnusedSewage sludge: 75 mill. t 64% used for construction material and compost
36% Unused
Almost 100% UnusedForest residues: 3.7 mill. t
A i l l id 13 ill
Almost 100% Unused
Used for feedstuff 70% Unused
18
Agricultural residues: 13 mill. t and compost 30%
Forest covers in Tokyo Metropolitan AreaForest covers in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
Forest Cover: 44%
Tokyo Tokyo
オオシラビソ・コメツガ林カラマツ林
ダケカンバ・ミヤマナラ林ブナ林
0 40km
ラ 林スギ・ヒノキ植林アカマツ・クロマツ林モミ林
0 40km
林ミズナラ林コナラ林シイ・カシ林
C if dl d B d l d dl d19
Coniferous woodland Broad-leaved woodland 19
Tokyo Metropolitan Area and “Big Island”Tokyo Metropolitan Area and “Big Island”
Hawaii IslandHawaii Island
Area(km2)
Population(1 000)(km2) (1,000)
Tokyo MA 32,424 41,500
Hawaii Island 10,432 201
20
km
20
Y f 1950Material flow changes in secondary woodlandMaterial flow changes in secondary woodland
Year of 1950 【Stock】 【Utilization】Available logs and timbers in Tokyo MA: Total utilized volume:11,670,000m3
y5,090,000m3
【From outside of Tokyo MA】
Bundle of twigs: 1,980,000m3 (17%)Firewood: 3,400,000m3 (29%)Charcoal: 6,210,000m3 (53%)
Y f 2000
Charcoal , firewood etc:6,580,000m3
, , ( )Shitake mushroom: 20,000m3 (0.2%) Dry mushroom:
39t
D b 95%Year of 2000
Available logs and timbers in Tokyo MA:
Total utilized volume: 630,000m3
3
【Stock】 【Utilization】 Decrease by 95%
in Tokyo MA:3,000,000m3 Charcoal: 30,000m3 (5%)
Shiitake mushroom :590,000m3 (95%)(From Tokyo MA: 150,000m3)
Dry mushroom:526t
Fresh mushroom:18 407t【From outside of Tokyo MA】
Logs for Shiitake mushroom: 15,000m3
18,407t
D hiit k 1 442t
Imports as food (from China)
A ti l l
【From outside of Tokyo MA】
21
Import of Siitakemushroom: 450,000m3
Dry shiitake: 1,442tFresh shiitake: 13,983t
Accounting as logs volume
21
Shiitake Mushroom Production in Tokyo MA (2001）
0 40km 0 40km
（％）
6040
2000年広葉樹林率
400t200100
生シイタケ
1200t800400
広域圏生シタケ
0 0
（％）
6040
2000年広葉樹林率
80t5020
乾シイタケ
22
204020
20
Fresh Shitake Mushroom22
Dry Shitake Mushroom
LongLong--term changes in logs volume for firewood, charcoal term changes in logs volume for firewood, charcoal d hiit k h i Jd hiit k h i Jand shiitake mushroom in Japanand shiitake mushroom in Japan
1942年
69,900100,000
10 0000m3 ) Firewood and charcoal
1979年
2,116
10,000
積(103m3)
me
(1,0
0
,2000年
7761,000
材積
Log
volu
m
Shiitake mushroom
1998年
264100
L
100
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
年
23
薪炭林伐採材積 シタケ原木伏込量
（Source）Japanese Agency of Forestry23
3. Agricultural landscape and ecosystem 3. Agricultural landscape and ecosystem services in Japanservices in Japan
(1) Satoyama (Japanese traditional agricultural landscape) (1) Satoyama (Japanese traditional agricultural landscape) and its ecosystem services in Japanand its ecosystem services in Japan
24
(2) Changes in Satoyama and ecosystem services(2) Changes in Satoyama and ecosystem services24
What are What are SatoyamaSatoyama
Satoyama≈ Japanese term for traditional rural landscapes – Comprises human settlements and several types ofComprises human settlements and several types of
ecosystems• secondary forests, agricultural lands, irrigation ponds, grasslands, etc.
– Formed/developed through prolonged interaction between humans and ecosystems. Connotes a traditional way of life– Connotes a traditional way of life• Interaction is central to the management of the ecosystems
– More than 40 per cent of Japan’s total landmassp p• many found in rural districts
– Conceptual issues• Various terminologies, different definitions, no appropriate English
translation
25
25
What are What are SatoyamaSatoyama and and SatoumiSatoumi??
Satoyama Landscape
26Source: Ministry of Environment, Japan 26
Coppice Woods
27http://www.env.go.jp/nature/satoyama/pamph/index.html
Ecosystem Services from Ecosystem Services from SatoyamaSatoyamaProvisioning Services
Regulating Services
Supporting Services
Cultural Services
- Rice - Climate control (in - Nutrient cycling - Eco-tourismRice- Sake- Fish- Wild edible plants
C
Climate control (in Japan)- Local air quality control
Nutrient cycling- Groundwater supporting- Carbon storage, etc.
Eco tourism- Traditional knowledge- Symbols and
f- Charcoal- Bamboo shoots (takenoko)- Mushrooms (e g
- Flood control- Erosion control- Landslide control- Water quality
heritage of Japanese culture- Spiritual monuments andMushrooms (e.g.
Matsutake, Shitake)- Genetic resources- Medicinal plants
B i
Water quality control- Water filtration- Control of wild
i l P l ti
monuments and objects (e.g. temples, mountains)- Folklore
F ti l (M t i)- Berries- Bush meat- Timber- Water, etc.
animals Population- Pest control- Habitat for migrating birds
- Festivals (Matsuri)- Amasan (traditional female divers), etc.
Water, etc. birds- Pollination control- Buffering against acid rain and dust, t
28
etc.
28
Crises of Crises of SatoyamaSatoyama
Satoyama is declining and disappearingDrivers of change (multiple causes):
AbandonmentAbandonmentAgeingDepopulation and Rural-Urban migration (out-migration of
)younger workforce)Declining economic value of agro-forestry productsGlobal tradeGlobal trade Shifting trends in energy consumption (since energy revolution of 1950s)Urbanization construction and developmentUrbanization, construction and developmentInvasive Alien Species (e.g. Black bass).Change in sense of commons: Unclear property rights and stronger expression of rights and interest in what was considered as commons
29
29
Depopulation and Rural Abandonment in JapanDepopulation and Rural Abandonment in JapanF di R l S ttl t
140
160
U.S.A.
Fading Rural Settlements:4,849 rural settlements (3.4% of total settlements) have less than 9 households and 1 403 settlements
120
2000=100)
U.K.
Norway
N.Z. households, and 1,403 settlements among them are expected to lose the remaining households (fading away). 1)
100
lation
inde
x (2
J
Germany
Out of 62,271 rural settlements in the depopulated regions, 442 settlements (0.7%) will be abandoned within the next decade
Fade away 60
80
Popu Japan abandoned within the next decade
and 2,219 settlements (3.6%) will fade away in the long run.2)
within the next
decade1%
Fade away in the
long run3%
Unknown12%
40
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
3%
Remain84%
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
30
1) Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2006) 2) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism, 2007)
30
Consequences of ChangeConsequences of ChangeFunction, use and value will diminish with the decline and
disappearance.Impact on national / local economy– Impact on national / local economy.• e.g., food: self-sufficiency rate of vegetables in Japan declined
from 100% in 1965 to 82% in 2003, and that of mushrooms does from 115% to 77% in the same period (Japan MAFF 2004)from 115% to 77% in the same period (Japan MAFF, 2004).
– Loss of biodiversity.– Erosion of cultural heritage: traditional knowledge, diet
lt f ti l tculture, festivals, etc.– Disasters (attacks by bears, destruction to food crops by
monkeys).– Increasing the gap between rural and urban areas.
Gap between fine ecological studies and studies on Gap between fine ecological studies and studies on ecosystem servicesecosystem services
31
31
4. Sustainability of Resort Industry in 4. Sustainability of Resort Industry in JapanJapan
(1) Resort development in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area(1) Resort development in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area(2) Redundant golf courses(2) Redundant golf courses(3) Alternative Management Options for Restructuring (3) Alternative Management Options for Restructuring Redundant Golf CoursesRedundant Golf Courses
Development History of Golf Courses in JapanDevelopment History of Golf Courses in Japan
Number of golf coursesCumulative bankruptcies
1203,000
year
Cumulative number of players per year
80
100
2,000
2,500
ayer
s per
y)f c
ours
es
Number ofCumulative players
40
60
1,000
1,500
mbe
r of
pla
06pl
ayer
s)
ber
of g
olf Number of
golf courses
0
20
0
500
,
lativ
e nu
m (10
Num
Cumulative bankruptcies00
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005 Cum
ul
Y
p
33
Year
33
Distribution of the existing golf courses in JapanDistribution of the existing golf courses in Japan
Tokyoy
Osaka
3434
Expansion of golf course construction in the Tokyo MAExpansion of golf course construction in the Tokyo MAk
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2008:Over 800 courses in
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Golf Courses in Hawaii IslandGolf Courses in Hawaii Island1 Bi I l d C Cl b1. Big Island Country Club2. Discovery Harbor Golf & Country Club3. Hamakua Country Club4. Hilo Municipal4. Hilo Municipal5. Hualalai Golf Club6. Kona Country Club Ocean Course7. Makalei Hawaii Country Club
[Mauna Kea Resort]8. Mauna Kea Golf Course9. Hapuna Golf Coursep10. Mauna Lani Resort North CourseSouth Course11 N il C t Cl b11. Naniloa Country Club12. Sea Mountain Golf Course13. Volcano Golf & Country Club
[Waikoloa Beach Resort]14. Waikoloa Beach Course15. Waikoloa King Course16 W ik l Vill G lf C
36
(Source) http://golflinkshawaii.com/golf/hawaii.html
16. Waikoloa Village Golf Course17. Waimea Country Club
36
(1) Redundant Golf Courses by 2035 in Japan(1) Redundant Golf Courses by 2035 in Japan
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Figure 4 Estimation results of redundant golf
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38
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38
39
The closed golf course in Gunma Pref.（2008/05/27)39
40
The closed golf course in Gunma Pref.（2008/05/27)40
The abandoned clubhouse
41
Landslide and erosion41
(3) Alternative Management Options for Restructuring (3) Alternative Management Options for Restructuring R d d t G lf CR d d t G lf CRedundant Golf CoursesRedundant Golf Coursesa) Multi-purpose
( k)d) Reforestation
space (park)
b) Cemetery e) Pasturing
c) Biofuel feedstock plantation and
f) Abandonmentplantation and storage site for biomass feedstock
4242
Options Environmental impacts Social and economic impactsa) Multi-purpose The space can be also utilized as a nature Citizens can enjoy walking, sports ) p pspace restoration site or even a disaster control site and other recreational activities
b) Cemetery Avoid or minimize additional forest destruction associated with cemetery
Resolve a deficient cemetery supply in peri-urban areasy
developmentpp y p
c) Biofuel feedstock
A net life cycle CO2 sequestration of 3.3-4.4 ton ha-1year-1 of CO2 (Tilman et al., 2006)
Promote rural industry and create employment opportunitiesfeedstock
plantation and storage site for biomass
The redundant courses can supply storage space not only for feedstock of perennials, but also for other cellulosic resources like forest thinning and agricultural residues
feedstockforest thinning and agricultural residues
d) Reforestation Improve biological diversity and enhance carbon sequestration and water-retaining
Fields for action-basedenvironmental educationcarbon sequestration and water retaining
functions as well as restore rural landscape environmental education
e) Pasture Pasturing can deter degradation of the land and other negative impacts caused by
Livestock production would provide economic benefitg p y
abandonment with relatively low cost and labour
p
f) Abandonment Recovering to forests in the long run. Soil Damages on agricultural
43
)erosion and illegal dumping of industrial waste should be monitored
production by wild boarsLandslide disaster potential
43
GHG Emission Estimation of Six OptionsGHG Emission Estimation of Six Options
CO2EmissionCO2 Sequestration Per one course（100ha)
44
（ 00 a)
Cost Analysis of Six OptionsCost Analysis of Six Options
Operation costConstruction cost Per one course（
45
p(Initial cost) （100ha)
Scenario AnalysisScenario AnalysisRedundant Golf Courses in Tokyo MA (152courses)
Six optionsMaintain as golf courses AA BB CC DD EE FF
Business as usual
Generating Energy
Amenity and Comfort
Nature Restorationusual Energy Comfort Restoration
Environmental
Social
Econom×
○ × ＋
Econom
Social
Economic Environmental
l aspect
mic aspect
＋
○
×
＋
○
× ＋○
E i t l
mic aspect
46
Economic Environmental aspect
Social aspectEnvironmental aspect
Four scenariosFour scenariosE i l Mi i iEnvironmental Mitigation
by Technology
B iB iGenerating Generating
Vitalization of rural dShrink and
Business as usualBusiness as usual
Energy Energy
economy and community
Shrink and retreat
Amenity & Amenity & NatureNatureComfortComfort
Nature Restoration
Nature Restoration
Conservation of nature and
47
Conservation of nature and ecosystem/Cultural heritage
Restructuring Restructuring iiscenariosscenarios
Business as Usual
Generating Energy
Amenity & Comfort
Nature restration
Golf courses
Usual Energy C restration
(a)Multi-purpose space (park)
(c)Biofuel
(b)Cemetery
(d)Reforestation
(e)Pasturing
(f)Abandoment
48
(f)Abandoment
(The darker options are, the more applied to the scenario)
Result of the scenario analysisResult of the scenario analysis
49
Summary of redundant golf courses in JapanSummary of redundant golf courses in JapanThis study
reviewed developmental history of golf courses in Japan and estimated that 152 (23%) golf courses will be redundant byestimated that 152 (23%) golf courses will be redundant by the year 2035 in Tokyo MA. identified 302 golf courses that are or will be soon gapproaching redundancy through the spatial distribution analysis. d ib d i l i i fdescribed six alternative management options for restructuring the existing golf courses as a sustainable infrastructure.infrastructure.attempted environmental and economic assessment of six management options
5050
Acknowledgement:Acknowledgement:
This study was carried out as part of the Tenure Track Program at Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, which is supported by the program entitled “Promotion of Environmental Improvement for Independence of Young Researchers” under the Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology provided by theFunds for Promoting Science and Technology provided by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.( ), p
5151
Relevant journal papers and presentations: Relevant journal papers and presentations: - Dang Thanh Tu, Osamu Saito, Akihiro Tokai and Tohru Morioka (2009) Biomass Potential and
Material Flow in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, Environmental Systems Research, 37 (submitted).- Osamu Saito (2008) Restructuring existing rural resorts as a sustainable infrastructure for basin socio-
ecological systems in Japan: A case of redundant golf courses in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, 3rd International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science (December 9-12, 2008).
- Kazunori Shimada,Toshio Katsuki, Kojiro Iwamoto and Osamu Saito (2008) Management effects on th it t t d i i h f d Q t Q ti i dl d ithe community structure and species richness of secondary Quercus serrata -Q.acutissima woodland in the southwest Tama area,Tokyo, Japan, Vegetation Science, 25: 1-12.
- Shoko Kajimoto, Osamu Saito, Kazunori Tanji, Tohru Morioka (2006) Rural Future Scenario Analysis based on a Sound Urban-rural relationship at a River Basin Scale Environmental SystemsAnalysis based on a Sound Urban rural relationship at a River Basin Scale, Environmental Systems Research, 34: 545-551.
- Emma Abasolo, Kazunori Tanji, Osamu Saito, Takanori Matsui and Tohru Morioka (2006) Measuring Contribution of Ecosystem Services to Urban Quality of Life, Environmental Systems Research, 34: 599-609.
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