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ISSUE: 033

20TH APRIL, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

The new FY19-20 has been going great guns for traders and investors as the markets are scaling newer

highs every now and then. The FIIs are pretty confident about the future of the Indian economy in the

time to come as a couple of big FIIs have already come out in the open and declared that irrespective

of NDA or UPA coming to power, they are confident of the economy to do good. The sentiment is

likely to get stronger if the NDA wins this General Election as it has in the last 5 years proved to be a

pro-economy government.

The Indian equity markets have seen a lot of FII participation in the last month wherein they pumped

in huge amounts of money into Indian stocks and propelled the markets to fresher lifetime highs.

Though the participation is still seen on a daily basis but the manner in which the FII/FIs were pumping

in money then and their activity now is a little different. We feel that they are likely to take a breather

before they think of pouring in more money as they will be keenly watching the mega event of this

year, i.e. General Elections, as a lot of money is at stake, just for this event.

While the markets keep soaring to newer heights, there is always a risk of a steep throwback.

Throwbacks are common and without corrective moves, an up move in a linear manner will not

last long and a correction after an unnecessary extension will be even more deadly than a normal

corrective move which comes in every now and then. Though things are very positive at the moment

and everything looks greener on the other side, as the monsoon prediction is in favour of the bulls,

the inflation data is within RBI’s comfort zone. The industrial production is also doing well. But let us

also acknowledge the fact that we have seen in the past, specifically during last August – September,

when a sharp correction from the then lifetime high around 11760 dragged the markets down steeply,

wherein not many people got a chance to withstand that sort of a fall and let us also not forget how

much effort and time it took then and it usually takes to recover from the shocks thereafter. Hence, the

solution to such turbulent times is always to trade in a proper disciplined manner.

Until now, we have only seen an up move in a highly anticipated volatile market. Therefore, smart

traders on the street would have already braced themselves for a contrarian move which is going

to be on the downside and could have already hedged their positions. In such torrid times, retail

participants must make sure that their position sizing is in line with their risk profiling so that they

do not get majorly hit if there is any adverse move which can hit their finances. The results season

is also in full swing and if a couple of heavyweights do not oblige, then a correction cannot be ruled

out amidst volatility (INDIAVIX) which is likely to spike even till 30-40 from current levels of around

23. Therefore, we wish that traders and investors continue to trade with caution despite the markets

hovering around lifetime highs.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-14

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Amit Samar

Viplav Dhandhukia

Vaishali Paruthi

Chetan K Waghray

Konpal Pali

Jayasree Ram

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ramesh Chenchala

Ravi Pandey

Bharath Sunnam

Arpit Chandna

Vinod J

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31, 6th Floor, Karvy Millennium Towers, Financial District, Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, 500 032, India.

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. - VIVEK RANJAN MISRA

Head-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy

• Voting for the second phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 in 95 constituencies spread across 11 states and the union territory of Puducherry began on Apr 18th.

• The government is targeting to raise about Rs. 1,500 crore from initial public offerings (IPOs) of two railway companies — IRCTC and IRFC.

• RBI to hold government bonds, term repo-reverse rate auction.

Automobiles

• Hero MotoCorp Ltd hiked prices of its motorcycles and scooters by Rs. 250-1000 per unit in April to offset the rise in input costs. The price hike taken by Hero MotoCorp is linked to the rise in manufacturing cost of two-wheelers due to introduction of anti-braking system, a new mandatory safety feature.

Technology

• Wipro to buyback 32.31 crore shares, or 5.35% equity at a price of Rs. 325 per share aggregating to Rs. 10500 crore. The buyback is at a premium of 16% from the last regular trade.

• Mind tree will pay a total dividend of Rs. 27 per share. The board approved an interim dividend of Rs. 3 per share and also proposed a final dividend of Rs. 4 and a special dividend of Rs. 20 apiece.

Banking

• Reserve Bank of India submitted before the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal that banks should be asked to declare accounts of Infrastructure Leasing &Financial Services and its group companies as non-performing assets.

• Electronica Finance, a Pune-based financier serving small and medium enterprises has raised $10 Mn through green, rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as Masala bonds.

Telecom

• Telecom Regulatory Authority of India has directed cable operators DEN Networks Ltd and SITI Networks Ltd to comply with the New Regulatory Framework for Broadcasting and Cable TV Services and not force consumers to subscribe to channels or packs against their will.

Power

• Telegana will add another 1,000 MW of solar energy capacity in next six to eight months taking the total installed capacity to over 4,500 MW in solar power segment.

Aviation

• With Jet Airways India Ltd suspending its international flights on facing a financial crisis, Air India and SpiceJet have set their eyes on flying rights to the beleaguered airline’s India-Dubai route.

• Tata Group has increased its stake in AirAsia India to about 51% and along with its partner AirAsia Investment, infused Rs. 5 Bn into the budget airline to fund its International growth plans.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• US Industrial production declined by 0.1% in March vs. +0.1% expected, after edging up 0.1% in February.

• UK lawmakers will get a fresh vote on a customs union in a few weeks in order to try and break the current Brexit deadlock. This comes amid warnings that the UK PM Theresa May’s Conservatives are walking into a wipe-out in the European elections.

• French President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to rebuild the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, after a fire tore through the building, sending the spire crashing to the ground.

• ECB officials said that they had not discussed further rate cuts in its latest meeting. Several ECB policymakers had raised doubts over projections for a growth rebound in H2 2019.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 39140.28 38333 38736 39516 39891 Up

NIFTY 11752.8 11545 11649 11857 11960 Up

NIFTYBANK 30,223.40 29520 29872 30622 31021 Up

INFY 717.05 702 709 728 739 Down

RELIANCE 1,385.95 1315 1351 1405 1425 Up

TCS 2,150.05 2001 2075 2190 2231 Up

TATAMOTORS 236.25 209 223 245 253 Up

COALINDIA 251.45 237 244 258 264 Up

ICICIBANK 404.40 383 394 413 422 Up

HDFCBANK 2,293.65 2240 2267 2318 2342 Up

YESBANK 255.80 244 250 266 276 Down

WIPRO 284.80 271 278 292 298 Up

MARUTI 7,447.45 7183 7315 7560 7672 Up

FORTHCOMING RESULTSCOMPANY NAME DATE/ EX-DATE

MAHLIFE 22-Apr-19

TATAGLOBAL 23 -Apr-19

ACC 23-Apr-19

TATAELXSI 24-Apr-19

IBULHSGFIN 24-Apr-19

ICICIPRULI 24-Apr-19

INFRATEL 24-Apr-19

M&MFIN 24-Apr-19

MARUTI 25-Apr-19

SBILIFE 25-Apr-19

AXISBANK 25-Apr-19

CYIENT 25-Apr-19

YESBANK 26-Apr-19

HDFCAMC 26-Apr-19

HEROMOTOCO 26-Apr-19

KSTREET - 20TH APRIL 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

NIFTY INDEX

SENSEX INDEX

SPBSMIP INDEX

SPBSSIP INDEX

NIFTYJR INDEX

NSEMCAP INDEX -3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

NSEA

UTO

IND

EX

NSEBA

NK

IND

EX

NSESRV

IND

EX

NSEPH

RM IN

DEX

NSEIT IN

DEX

NSEM

ET IND

EX

NSEN

RG IN

DEX

NSEC

ON

IND

EX

NSEREA

L IND

EX

NSEFM

CG

IND

EX

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

CC

MP IN

DEX

IND

U IN

DEX

SPX IN

DEX

NK

Y IND

EX

HSI IN

DEX

SHC

OM

P IN

DEX

UK

X IN

DEX

CA

C IN

DEX

-1

9

19

29

39

49

59

PC JEW

ELLER LTD

VA

KRA

NG

EE LTD

AD

AN

I POW

ER LTD

TVS M

OTO

R CO

LTD

MA

X FIN

AN

CIA

L SERVIC

ES LTD

END

URA

NC

E TEC

HN

OLO

GIES LTD

BALK

RISHN

A IN

DU

STRIES LTD

INFO

EDG

E IND

IA LTD

TATA

POW

ER CO

LTD

GM

R INFRA

STRUC

TURE LTD

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

TATA

MO

TORS LTD

HERO

MO

TOC

ORP LTD

TATA

CO

NSU

LTAN

CY SV

CS

LTD

CO

AL IN

DIA

LTD

BAJA

J AU

TO LTD

BHA

RTI INFRA

TEL LTD

IND

IABU

LLS HO

USIN

G

FINA

NC

E L

YES BAN

K LTD

INFO

SYS LTD

VED

AN

TA LTD

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

11-04-19 12-04-19 15-04-19 16-04-19 18-04-19

FII DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Apollo Tyres Ltd. CMP Rs.216Target Price Rs.254Upside 18%

Company Background

Incorporated in the year 1972, Apollo Tyres Ltd is engaged in manufacturing tyres catering to various automobile segments and is headed by Mr. Onkar S Kanwar. They have four manufacturing facilities in India and two in Europe (Netherlands & Hungary). Their corporate headquarters is situated in Gurugram, India.

Investment Rationale

• European sales to pick-up: Ramp-up of the Hungary plant may help improve EBITDA margins to a sustainable level of 12-13% on account of better operating stabilities. The overall capacity in Europe between the two plants is expected to be ~28000 tyres per day.

• Technological upgradation attracts OEM business: The OEM journey has been a strategic move both in terms of establishing themselves as a technological leader and also a good proportion of OEM sales are translating into replacement sales. As share of business increases with the OEMs, this is likely to reflect better in the replacement market.

• Apollo pacing itself for the next gen growth: The Company is banking on product differentiators in terms of compound mixing and process technology for which the APTY recently inaugurated an R&D centre in Chennai. These solutions are likely to improve long-term prospects through value accretion.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 307/192

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 124/1.8

EPS (Rs.) 12.7

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 13

Dividend Yield (%) 0.01

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E CHARTValuation

We value Apollo Tyres at a P/E of 13x for FY21E EPS of Rs. 19.6 for a target price of Rs. 254, representing an upside potential of 18%. However, the downside risk to our call could be the demand condition in Europe which is currently mute due to implementation of WLTP norms. Nevertheless, we expect demand revival for both domestic and exports and believe capacity expansion plans to start yielding during FY20-21E.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

REVENUE 148 178 201 227

EBITDA 16 20 22 25

EBITDA(%) 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.3

PAT 7.2 8.7 9.6 11.1

EPS (Rs.) 12.7 15.3 16.9 19.6

RoE (%) 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.6

P/E 21.7 14.1 12.8 11.0

41%

19%

22%

18%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

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120

Apr

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19

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19

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APOLLO Sensex

56.21 22.67

13.43

7.69

promoter

FIIs

DIIs

others

60

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Apr

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MSIl Sensex

41%

19%

22%

18%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

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120

Apr

-18

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19

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APOLLO Sensex

56.21 22.67

13.43

7.69

promoter

FIIs

DIIs

others

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr

-18

May

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Jun-

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MSIl Sensex


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Maruti Suzuki India Limited CMP Rs.7440Target Price Rs.8701Upside 17%

Investment Rationale

• Maruti Suzuki India Limited is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture, purchase and sale of motor vehicles, components and spare parts (automobiles). The other activities of the Company comprise facilitation of pre-owned car sales, fleet management and car financing.

• For MSL, we reduce our volume estimates by 0.3%/0.3% for FY20 and FY21 respectively. We increase our sales and PAT estimates by 4.3%/5.7% and 5.0%/7.6% for FY20 and FY21 respectively. We expect MSL to report 7.8% volume CAGR, 10.7% sales CAGR and 17.2% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. The Company is expected to report EPS of Rs. 302 and Rs. 348 in FY20E and FY21E respectively.

• During Q3FY19, the Company reported EBITDA margins of 9.8%. This is on account of weak quarter due to combination of many headwinds like a) lower demand impacting volumes b) higher commodity costs C) higher discounts d) adverse forex and negative operating leverage.

• As per the management, 4W demand in the country continues to remain soft and under pressure. Growth in urban areas has been flat while rural demand has grown 13% YoY. For MSIL, rural segment contributes ~39% of total volumes.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 9922/6324

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 2252595/32646

EPS (Rs.) 256.0

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 25.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2.0

Stock Exchange BSE

Valuation

At CMP of Rs 7440, MSL stock is quoting at PE of 21.1xFY21 earnings. On account of stable volume growth and 17.2% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E, we increase the target PER multiple from 21x to 25xFY21E (5% discount to its five year 12M fwd average PE) and upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY rating with a revised price target of Rs. 8701 (PER of 25xFY21E earnings).

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHAREHOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

Revenue 797627 868693 975007

Ebitda 120615 113850 138628

Ebitda(% 15.1 13.1 14.2

Pat 77218 74693 91965

EPS(Rs) 256 247 304

ROE (%) 19.8 16.9 18.6

Pe(X) 25.6 26.4 21.4

41%

19%

22%

18%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

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120

Apr

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APOLLO Sensex

56.21 22.67

13.43

7.69

promoter

FIIs

DIIs

others

60

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Apr

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MSIl Sensex

41%

19%

22%

18%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

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Apr

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18

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Nov

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Dec

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Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

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APOLLO Sensex

56.21 22.67

13.43

7.69

promoter

FIIs

DIIs

others

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr

-18

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MSIl Sensex


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Havells India

HAVELLS is trading with a secular uptrend and is currently trading with a strong bullish bias as seen in daily charts with decent volumes. During the current uptrend, the stock has also witnessed a decent breakout at 754 levels with decent volumes indicating the buying interest in the stock. The historical price action in the stock suggests that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants which will help the stock to resume its up move. Among the leading indicators, CCI (60) and Heiken candlesticks indicate a positive trend in the daily chart as well as the weekly charts. RSI (14) and Stoc(5,3,3) indicators in daily chart is showing bullish bias indicating the stock is being accumulated by stronger hands on every dip. On the momentum setup, weekly MFI (30) is pointing northwards after giving a positive crossover with the signal line and, in the daily time frame, the oscillator bounced off taking support of 50 levels reaffirming underlying strength in the counter. Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9) as well is trading above the zero line in weekly charts indicating the inbuilt strength in the counter. Considering all the above data, we recommend traders to enter the stock at the current levels for the higher targets of 850 followed by 870 levels and any correction towards 715 levels can be utilized to average the stock keeping a stop loss below 675 levels on closing basis.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

BALRAMCHIN is in uptrend and making higher high and higher low on daily charts. The stock has closed the week with decent return of around 5.64%. The historical price action in the stock

reflects that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants. This helps the stock to resume its up move. On the daily chart, the stock is placed below all its major moving

averages (21, 50, 100 & 200 DEMA) but has witnessed huge rally with positive momentum which is expected to carry the stock price higher. On technical front, the 14 period RSI has seen

a stellar rally from the lows of 35-40 levels (oversold zone) and is currently placed near 60 levels. Also on weekly chart, the Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) is placed below the current price

supporting bullishness intact in the counter. Considering the above data facts, we recommend short to medium term investors to enter the stock around 145 levels for an upside target of

168-174 levels. While any correction towards 139 levels can be utilized to average stock, keeping a stop loss placed below the support zone of 130 levels.

STOCK HAVELLS

CMP 757.70

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 750

AVERAGE 715

STOP LOSS 675

TARGET 1 850

TARGET 2 870

TIME FRAME 4-6 MONTHS

STOCK BALRAMCHIN

CMP 146.20

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 145

AVERAGE 139

STOP LOSS 130

TARGET 1 168

TARGET 2 174

TIME FRAME 3-4 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Stop Loss 670

Target 595

Lot Size 1000

Margin 113582

21-DEMA 642

Open Interest Shares 4054000

Change in OI 125000

Cost of Carry (%) 20.80

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTYAUTO (8,972.65) has significantly outperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week higher by more than 2% which was majorly due to the outperformance in the heavyweight counters like TATAMOTORS, HEROMOTOCO, MOTHERSUMI and TVSMOTOR which rose in the range of 3-9%. While on contrary, the counters which remained laggards among the auto stocks were BHARATFORG & EICHERMOT which ended in red for the week. Technically, the index is making higher highs and higher lows from past four six weeks and has next crucial resistance near 9050-9120 where an unfilled gap is placed on the daily charts. On the other hand, the support is pegged around 8750-8800 levels followed by 8650 levels. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed good up move from the middle band towards the upper band of the Bollinger band (20, 2) and has settled above the same affirming our bullish stance on the sector. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable for short term traders to exit the weak stock on any minor rallies and trade with bearish bias in the index stocks like BHARATFORG & EICHERMOT which are looking weak on the daily charts. On the other hand, medium to long term traders may start accumulating TATAMOTORS & MARUTI on any minor corrections.

NIFTYBANK (30,223.40) outperformed the Nifty with a gain of 0.95% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.94%. During the truncated week, the index witnessed a good up move followed by a 1% sell-off on the last trading day. The index hit a fresh all-time high at 30669.80 levels. During the week, the index witnessed a resistance breakout at 30165 levels. Technically, the index may trade with an upward bias until and unless 30165 levels are taken off from upside. Banking stocks snapped the winning streak on the last day of the trading week as sentiment soured a day after debt-ridden Jet Airways Ltd was forced to halt all operations after running out of funds. The Nifty PSU Bank index fell 2% with SBI dropping 2%. Bank of Baroda and PNB fell between 3% and 4%. Among private lenders, Yes Bank fell 4% while IndusInd Bank dropped 3%. During the week, RBL Bank announced Q4 results whose advances grew by 35% while the operating profit increased by 46% and its net profit increased by 39%. Bank Nifty may face a minor resistance at 30470 levels followed by 30670 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 30025 levels followed by 29670 levels.

NIFTY REALTY (270.40) has ended the week on a negative note with a loss of -2.16% underperforming Nifty 50 which closed on a positive note. The breadth of the REALTY index was negative as 3 out of 10 stocks in the index ended on a positive note while 7 stocks ended on a negative note. Stocks which gained last week were GODREJPROP, SOBHA and SUNTECK which gained around 0.78%, 0.49% and 0.45% respectively while DLF, MAHLIFE, BRIGADE, PHOENIXLTD, PRESTIGE, OBEROIRLTY and IBREALEST lost -0.05%, -0.64%, -0.85%, -2.59%, -4.35%, -6.01% and -6.66% respectively. NIFTY REALTY index after making swing high near 282.90 levels witnessed technical pullback towards 268.45 levels, where it found support above its 21-DEMA moving average and closed above it in last trading session. Technically, the said index is trading well above all major moving averages on its daily and weekly chart as well indicating bullish bias. The weekly 14-period RSI is trading above its 9 periods EMA on weekly chart indicating a bullish bias in the near term. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 263.50 levels followed by 260 levels while on the higher side, 278 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 282.50 levels.

NIFTY PHARMA (9409.90) has underperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week lower by 0.18% whereas the benchmark index closed in green with a gain of around 1%. Stock specific actions were seen in most of the stocks. BIOCON, CADILAHC, GLENMARK and PEL were some stocks which ended the week lower. While on the contrary, the counters which closed in green among the Pharma stocks were AUROPHARMA, CIPLA, and LUPIN. Technically, the index is placed above all its major moving averages on daily chart and has next crucial resistance near 9700-9730 where stocks have struggled in the recent past. On the other hand, the support is pegged around 9310-9340 levels followed by 9120 levels. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed good up move from the middle band towards the upper band of the Bollinger band (20, 2) and has settled above the same affirming our bullish stance on the sector. Stock specific action is expected from the sector in coming week. We hold our positive view in the index for the week.

INDRAPRASTHA GAS LIMITED: BUY IGL (MAY FUTURE) | CMP: 324.60 SECTOR: ENERGY

IGL managed to close with gains of 4.64% on a weekly closing basis whereas benchmark index NIFTY closed with gains of 0.94% exhibiting outperformance of the stock in comparison to benchmark. After making an all time high of 344.90 in the start of Jan’18, stock price witnessed profit booking in last couple of months and eventually entered in a consolidation mode. From last couple of weeks, stock price is gradually inching higher and technically stock price is well poised above its 21 & 50-DEMA which is currently placed near 309 & 299 levels respectively. On the momentum setup, 14-period RSI on weekly as well daily time frame chart is approaching overbought territory reaffirming that momentum may accelerate further in sessions to come. On the Bollinger Band (20, 2) stock price managed to float above its middle band and recently pierced its upper band. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate Long position near 320 levels for the higher target of 337, keeping stop loss below 309 levels.

Sentiment

Stop Loss 309

Target 337

Lot Size 2750

Margin 158260

21-DEMA 309

Open Interest Shares 4028750

Change in OI 313500

Cost of Carry (%) -49.40

GLENMARK PHARMACEUTICALS: SELL GLENMARK (MAY FUTURE) | CMP: 646.00 SECTOR: PHARMA

GLENMARK has made a lower high and a lower low during last week’s trade and has closed just below its 21 day EMA levels at Rs.645.19 levels. Though the stock is trading in a range of Rs.640- Rs.675, technical parameters like the RSI and ADX are hinting at a possible breakdown from immediate supports which lie around Rs.630- Rs.625 levels, as a clear distribution pattern has been observed in the counter on daily charts. The overall chart structure of the stock indicates fatigue and with most other pharmaceutical stocks trading as laggards, GLENMARK is also vulnerable to slide lower on sustenance below Rs.640. On the other hand, resistances for the stock are pegged around Rs.660- Rs.665 crossing which the negative setup could change. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to go short on the counter if the stock sustains below Rs.640 in the first hour of Monday’s trade with a stop loss placed above Rs.670 for potential downside targets of Rs.595 and lower over the next one week or so.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Nifty (11752.80): Nifty ended the previous week with a bang to settle at its highest level ever after clocking an intraday record high of 11856.15 on last Thursday. Immediate

weekly support for the Nifty lies around 11650-11600 zone where decent amount of put writing is seen clearly indicating that market participants are not expecting a sharp

decline below the said zone. However, in case of a breach of those levels, the index is likely to witness support around 11500-11450. While on the upside, the Nifty will find

it difficult to surpass the immediate resistance around the lifetime high and sustain above it as a good amount of call writing has also been seen around the next resistance

zone around 11800- 11900 strikes.

The market participants will be carefully watching the voter turnout and other such important details as the next phase of election begins. Hence, there is no doubt that the

volatility will spike. Therefore, adhering to a disciplined trading approach is advised.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE: BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 25APRIL 11800 CE @ 49

MAX PROFIT Unlimited

Max Loss 3,675

BEP 11,849.0

STOP LOSS 20.0 ( Option points)

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the near term.

TYPE BUY PUT IN HINDALCO

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of HINDALCO 25 APR 205 PE @ 2

BEP 203

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED BELOW BEP

MAX LOSS 7000

RATIONALE The stock has witnessed selling pressure with spurt in volume and stock is poised below its long term average. Also in the last session, stock witnessed fall in open interest with fall in price indicating long liquidation in the counter, reaffirming underlying weakness in the counter.

TYPE: BULL CALL SPREAD IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANKNIFTY 25 APRIL 30200 CE @ 241

SECOND LEG Sell one lot of BANKNIFTY 25 APRIL 30500 CE @ 115

BEP 30326.0

Max Profit 3,480

MAX LOSS 2,520

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the near term.

TYPE COVERED CALL IN AXIS BANK

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of AXISBANK 30 MAY FUT @ 775

SECOND LEG Sell one lot of AXISBANK 30 MAY 790 CE @ 30

BEP 745

MAX PROFIT 54000

MAX LOSS Unlimited below BEP

STOP LOSS 747 (Spot Levels)

RATIONALE From last couple of sessions, stock price was consolidating above its 21-DEMA while in last few sessions, stock gained momentum with renewed buying interest in the counter indicating possibility of prices to scale in an uncharted territory in sessions to come.

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7KSTREET - 20TH APRIL 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

INDIGO 1554.4 8.5 3004000 33.06

COALINDIA 251.45 4.42 43536000 29.63

DCBBANK 202.3 1.76 6593000 19.79

PVR 1710.05 0.8 835000 19.26

CHENNPETRO 262.45 0.92 1229000 18.99

CONCOR 521.05 1.31 1827000 16.67

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


APOLLOHOSP 1271.6 0.58 1026000 -12.9

HEROMOTOCO 2741.55 3.85 2560000 -11.89

BSOFT 100.3 0.91 3474000 -10.49

HINDPETRO 266.6 2.48 12426000 -10.43

MUTHOOTFIN 616.25 0.08 2022000 -10.25

SIEMENS 1184.4 0.05 1305000 -10.02

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


RELCAPITAL 151.45 -17.69 16397000 61.75

HEXAWARE 337.4 -0.07 3881000 27.19

IFCI 12.5 -3.85 72170000 19.47

TATAELXSI 955.85 -0.57 1556000 13.22

SBIN 310.8 -1.41 81831000 11.9

MGL 1017.45 -0.55 594000 11.49

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


JETAIRWAYS 164.85 -36.8 4849000 -24.29

UJJIVAN 342 -2.19 3568000 -14.85

RPOWER 8.2 -13.68 83264000 -12.51

SRTRANSFIN 1215.65 -0.77 3059000 -6.32

NESTLEIND 10954.45 -0.18 317000 -5.89

STAR 487.65 -1.38 2790000 -5.65

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

CRUDE OILCrude oil prices edged lower at the opening of current week after Brent hit the highest levels in five months in last session of previous month whereas the worries about global supplies hold the falling prices. Iran’s Oil Minister said last week that US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and tensions in Libya have made the supply-demand balance in the global oil market fragile and warned of consequences for increasing pressures on Tehran. Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, “There is a dilemma. What should we do with OPEC: should we lose the market, which is being occupied by the Americans, or quit the deal?”. Separately, Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the US but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel. As per Chinese customs data released last week, China’s March crude oil imports fell from the previous month as state-owned refiners began maintenance but refined fuel exports soared to the highest in at least seven years as a new private refinery ran at full capacity. As per EIA, US crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week as imports dropped while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased less than forecasts. Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in week to April 12 compared to analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. A majority of the decline came from the Midwest region, where inventories fell 2.4 million barrels to 135.3 million barrels. Growing production of Texas super-light oil is slowing down deliveries into the main US storage hub in Oklahoma, draining supply there and adding to a glut in Texas. In the last several months, drillers have been producing more oil known as West Texas Light (WTL), a type of crude that differs from what is blended at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub to produce the benchmark US oil grade. As per Baker Hughes Rig count, US energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for a second week in a row with crude futures up more than 40% so far this year. Companies added two oil rigs in the week to April 12 bringing the total count to 833.

BASE METALSBase metals started the week on a mixed note as traders awaited the bunch of Chinese economic data. Prices traded on a positive note in the second trading session but Zinc alone made losses as the on-warrants at LME warehouses rose after a brief period of maintaining the stocks at lower levels. As per China’s Customs data, China imported 391,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper semis in March which was up from 310,000 tons compared to February. The country’s imports of copper ore and concentrate stood at 1.77 million tons over March, down from 1.93 million tons in February. China’s primary lead producers during March 2019 consumed 244,810 tons of lead concentrate which was up 5.2% on a monthly basis and 0.6% on a yearly basis. The consumption by producers in Henan was 89,600 tons which was down 6.2% on a monthly basis. The consumption in Hunan province was 48,000 tons, up 24.8% on a monthly basis and in Yunnan reached 20,250 tons, up 45.2% on a monthly basis. China’s output of NPI stood at 48,900 tons in March, up 6.8% and 19.2% on a monthly and yearly basis according to Antaike. The Jan-Mar output totaled 140,000 tons up 16.6% year on year. After US sanctions being lifted on U.C. Rusal, they announced on Monday’s session that a joint venture with Braidy Industries would be constructed to operate a flat-rolled aluminium rolling plant in Ashland, Kentucky. At China’s provinces, for lead-acid battery producers, the operating rates across Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, and Hebei inched up 0.69% from the week ended on Apr 5 and averaged 55.55% in the week through Friday April 12. However, the production across battery producers last week recovered from the Qingming Festival holiday which supported the rise in operating rates. Unseasonal demand for the metal followed by the fall in prices made the metal producers to slash their production levels.

COTTONCotton futures traded sideways to down for most part of the week ending on 18th April due to limited industrial buying. However, major losses were capped by the weaker production outlook amid shrinking arrival numbers. Total cotton arrivals in India were reported at about 264 lakh bales of 170 kg each as per the data compiled by Cotton Corporation of India, lower by 10%-12% compared to last year. In the meanwhile, Cotton Association of India has revised its production forecast for India during year 2018-19 downwardly from 328 lakh bales of 170 kg each to 321 lakh bales. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption of 316 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated during the last month while the CAI has estimated exports for the season 2018-19 at 47 lakh bales which are lower by 22 lakh bales compared to the export of 69 lakh bales estimated during last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the season is estimated at 13 lakh bales. Apart from that, firmness in global pries also restricted major losses in domestic cotton prices. ICE cotton futures edged higher on optimism over the trade talk progress between US and China. Moreover, prices were buoyed by technical buying as most of the technical indicators offered bullish signal at technical chart. ICE cotton futures hovering above the 100 days moving average sparked fresh buying at futures platform. Improved import from China and announcement by Chinese government to expand import quota up to 800000 tonnes also added positivity to prices. At news front, USDA released crop progress report on 15th April showed about 7% of cotton planting was completed till 14th April against the 7% of prior year for corresponding period and 8% on five year average. Progress was ahead of normal in Texas, with 11% of the acreage planted, compared to the 5-year average of 10%. The state reporting the most acreage planted was Arizona, with 30%, 5 percentages points below of last year and lower by 9% to the 5-year average.

OIL & OILSEEDSEdible oil and oilseeds prices extended its losses due to sluggish demand against the surging supply pressure across India. Meanwhile, reports of increased import of veg oil during months of March also added pressure to the oil seeds prices during the week ending on 18th March. India imported about 9.88 lakh tones of soybean oil till March, 19 during marketing year 2018-19 (Nov18-Oct19) compared to 8.26 lakh tonnes of prior year, higher by 20% on yearly basis. India imported about 292925 tonnes of soybean oil in month of March against the 220376 tonnes of prior month up by 33% on monthly basis. India imported

about 8.02 lakh tonnes of palm oil of all categories during month of March compared to 7.51 lakh tonnes of prior months, higher by 7% on monthly basis. Total import of palm oil during oil year 2018-19 (Nov18-Oct19) were reported at 38.72 lakh tonnes against the 37.95 lakh tonnes of prior year for corresponding period higher by 2% y/y.

Earlier, Solvent Extractor Association of India (SEA) had released its meal export data for the month of March that showed soy meal export from India for month of March 2019 at 193920 MT against the 132375 MT of prior month, higher by 46.5% m/m. India exported about 1337215 MT of soybean during the time period of Apr2018 – Mar2019 wherein 1187818 MT was exported for corresponding period during last year higher by 13% on yearly basis. Iranian market has once again opened up for Indian soybean meal. During current year from April 2018 to March 2019, over 5.0 lakh tons of soybean meal shipped against last year just 23,000 tons. The overall export of Oilmeals during April 2018 to March 2019 is provisionally reported at 3,205,768 tons compared to 3,026,628 tons during the same period of last year i.e. up by 6%.

RUBBERTOCOM rubber futures closed on downside during the week ended on 19th April 2019 due to concern of fall in shanghai futures amid sluggish stress over US china Trade war. Rubber inventories in SHFE warehouses increased by 2000 tonnes to 443128 during the week ended on 19th April, 2019 and gained by 0.45% whereas on warrant stocks down by 230 tonnes to 424250, which added negative sentiments on rubber prices. The US-China faces huge trade loss during the first round of negotiation and made new bilateral trade agreement. Chinese GDP for first quarter came at 6.4% defying the market expectation of 6.3% and industrial production witnessed a robust growth of 8.5% against previous reading of 5.3%. China’s retail sales grew to 8.7% in March on yearly basis from 8.3% of February indicating stronger economic growth. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the country’s auto sales fell in the month of March by 5.2% to 2.52 million vehicles despite reduction in the retail prices by car makers after Beijing handed out tax cuts to spur consumer spending.

BULLIONGold has witnessed downside trend during the most of the part of the week tracking bearish fundamental outlook such as the global economic fear that eased following better than expected data from US and China. The metal has so far lost more than 1% in the holiday-shortened week and was on track for a fourth straight weekly decline. The dollar rose against a basket of six currencies after US retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March indicating economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start. Firmness in the global equity market is also adding negative sentiment to the bullion market. According to IMF, Kazakhstan raised its gold holdings by 5.38 tons to 361.68 tons in March. US industrial production data is scheduled for release which is expected to improve by 0.2% against previous reading of 0.1%. China’s economic growth in the first quarter remained steady at 6.4%, topping expectations for a 6.3% expansion which analysts said could have driven palladium’s jump on Wednesday. Gold premiums in top consumer China jumped to their highest in more than two years, as a drop in global prices and strengthening Yuan encouraged purchases amid optimism about the state of the economy. Chinese premiums climbed to about $20 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, a level last seen in March 2017. Premiums of about $13-$15 were charged last week. Along with the weaker spot gold price, strength in the Chinese currency has also lifted premiums to multi-year highs, said an analyst based in Hong-Kong.

SPICESSpices traded on a mixed note during the week ended on 20th April; jeera and cardamom extended their prior gains while turmeric and dhaniya futures traded mostly downwards. Cardamom futures traded higher initially extending prior gains tracking unfavorable weather conditions in the growing regions that are likely to affect crop size of the upcoming season; heavy rainfall in monsoon 2018 has already halved the crop in the current season. Further, export enquiries from Saudi Arabia for the quality certified stocks ahead of Ramzaan also kept prices higher along with fears of below normal monsoon. However, IMD forecasted monsoon in 2019 to be 96% of LPA that is under normal category; this resulted in some sharp fall from the higher levels. Overall, active May futures traded with low and high of Rs. 1701.8/kg and Rs. 1767.9/kg respectively before closing at Rs. 1707.5/kg, up by 0.82% W/W while June futures closed with gains of 2.98% from its last week close. Turmeric futures noted sharp fall during the week on profit booking from the recent gains; prices also fell to their lower circuit after the forecast of normal monsoon by IMD. IMD released forecast for monsoon 2019 yesterday; as per forecast, rainfall is expected to be normal with rainfall of 96% of LPA with an error of +/-5%. Further, all the fears of active El Nino has been paused as IMD expects weak El Nino conditions to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season. However, major fall was limited on expectations of good buying activities at the spot market. Hence, May futures made a high and low of Rs. 6612/quintal and Rs. 6258/quintal respectively before closing at Rs. 6402/quintal, down by 3.12% W/W while Jun futures closed with loss of 2.6% from last week close. Jeera futures continued to trade on a positive note extending gains for the 8th successive week making multi weeks high of Rs. 16935/quintal. Good buying activities by stockiest and robust export demand for the Indian jeera supported sharp gains in prices. However, profit booking from higher levels resulted in prices losing some gains before closing the week at Rs. 16840/quintal, up by 2.18% W/W while June futures closed with gains of 1.76% from its last week close.


GOLD

COMMODITIES

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 12-Apr 18-Apr % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 31862.0 31435.0 -1.3% 34031.00 -7.63% 29268.00 7.40%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 37220.0 37210.0 0.0% 41698.00 -10.76% 34981.00 6.37%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 4451.0 4414.0 -0.8% 5669.00 -22.14% 2993.00 47.48%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 184.7 173.8 -5.9% 358.70 -51.55% 172.90 0.52%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 451.1 448.3 -0.6% 493.25 -9.11% 397.40 12.81%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 133.5 134.1 0.4% 171.80 -21.97% 132.00 1.55%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 229.9 224.6 -2.3% 233.65 -3.89% 163.80 37.09%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 900.0 876.4 -2.6% 1095.20 -19.98% 735.00 19.24%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 147.5 148.9 0.9% 178.85 -16.77% 124.75 19.32%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3718.0 3692.0 -0.7% 3915.00 -5.70% 3149.00 17.24%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 739.1 726.3 -1.7% 786.75 -7.68% 713.60 1.78%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3771.0 3741.0 -0.8% 4244.00 -11.85% 3711.00 0.81%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 534.3 543.2 1.7% 673.00 -19.29% 483.40 12.37%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 6008.0 5726.0 -4.7% 6300.00 -9.11% 3831.00 49.46%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6562.0 6404.0 -2.4% 7702.00 -16.85% 5958.00 7.49%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 16400.0 16790.0 2.4% 21000.00 -20.05% 15140.00 10.90%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 7184.0 7152.0 -0.4% 7316.00 -2.24% 4186.00 70.86%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 1740.0 1701.8 -2.2% 1780.00 -4.39% 818.50 107.92%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 1849.0 1847.0 -0.1% 2162.00 -14.57% 1680.00 9.94%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4449.0 4320.0 -2.9% 4869.50 -11.28% 3494.50 23.62%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8982.0 8700.0 -3.1% 10510.00 -17.22% 7200.00 20.83%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 22260.0 22140.0 -0.5% 24280.00 -8.81% 19970.00 10.87%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2439.0 2385.0 -2.2% 2480.00 -3.83% 1166.00 104.55%

NCDEX Kapas (Rs/20 kg) 868.0 868.0 0.0% 913.00 -4.93% 854.00 1.64%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1453.7 1508.0 3.7% 1846.10 -18.31% 1106.00 36.35%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ZINC

COCUD

Gold COMEX June contract delivery futures have opened at $1294/ounce, made a high of $1295.20, low of $1273 and settled around $1266 levels. Prices have breached the 8,13 EMA support levels around $1297-1295 levels, in addition to this, prices are witnessing the moving average’s bearish crossover. In the mentioned price chart, it is visible that prices have breached the HEAD&SHOULDERS pattern neck line around $1285 levels. According the H&S pattern, prices are expected to move lower in the coming week.Recommendations:Gold June MCX: Sell at $1285-1287 TP $1256 SL 1300Gold June MCX: Sell at 31650-31700 TP 31000 SL 32000

Zinc LME 3M forwards opened at $2924/Mt, made a high of 2935, low of 2751 and settled around $2785 levels. Prices are trading below the daily 8, 13 EMA support levels $2850, 2870 respectively. Prices have also breached the consolidation phase support levels around $2875 levels. Overall commodity prices are expected to fall in the coming week and we recommend selling on rise.

Recommendations:

Zinc LME 3M Sell at 2800-2810 TP 2730 SL 2855

Zinc MCX April Sell at 226.50-227 TP 220 SL 230

NCDEX Cocud May contract delivery futures at the NCDEX platform has opened at Rs. 2465/quintal, made a high of Rs. 2475, low of Rs. 2372 and settled at Rs. 2385/Quintal. Prices have breached the daily 8.13 EMA support levels around 2390 and 2415 levels. Overall long-term bull rally is in progress, only a mere correction towards the support levels 2270-2300 is expected.

Recommendations

Cocud May NCDEX: Sell at 2410-2420 TP 2270 SL 2500


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

NEWS DIGEST

• Primary aluminium production by China stood at 8.57 million tons in the January-March

period, which was up by 3.9% on a yearly basis and in the March 2.88 million tons of it was

up by 3.4%.

• China’s GDP for Q12019 stood at 6.4% an improved growth from the expectations of 6.3%

for Q12019 and a supportive factor for prices.

• China Fixed Asset Investment on a yearly basis remained neutral at 6.3% for March

indicating support to the metal prices.

• China’s Industrial Production on an yearly basis rose to 8.5% for March against 5.3% of

February indicating an increased boost which was given by Chinese Central banks

through new loans.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Gold was trading on weaker note on Thursday on extended selling pressure backed by stronger dollar and US equity market. Cooling off of possible US recession is weighing on the bullion market. CME gold futures are trading at 2019 lows as recent economic data from China is putting pressure on the yellow metal prices. Asian shares edged up to a nine-month high with the Good Friday and Easter holidays keeping investors on the sidelines.

• Crude oil futures continued to trade on weaker note on Thursday despite drop in US weekly inventories. Expectation of non-continuation of production cut by Russia in second half of the year is adding negative trend to the oil market. US crude oil inventories dropped by 3.107 million barrels in the week to 12th April, 2019 while gasoline and distillate stocks dropped by 1.174 million barrels and 0.362 million barrels respectively. Change in US weather pattern has been putting pressure on the natural gas prices.

• Base metals were trading on a negative note on Thursday’s session after making gains on Wednesday’s session. The gains made in observance of positive data from Chinese end were pared slowly. Fall in production standards at Chinese end made the concerns develop for the Aluminum and the prices rose to a four and half months high on Wednesday. However, the bearish trend still remains intact.

• At news front, USDA released crop progress report on 15th April that showed about 7% of cotton planting was completed till 14th April against the 7% of prior year for corresponding period and 8% on five year average. Progress was ahead of normal in Texas, with 11% of the acreage planted compared to the 5-year average of 10%. The state reporting the most acreage planted was Arizona, with 30%, 5 percentages points below of last year and lower by 9% to the 5-year average.

• USDA released the fresh supply and demand estimates for China for year 2019-20. USDA forecasted cotton production in China during year 2019-20 at 6 MMT compared with an estimated 6.07 MMT in year 2018-19.

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COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 12-Apr 18-Apr % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1864.00 1852.50 -0.62%

Copper LME 3M 6505.50 6549.50 0.68%

Lead LME 3M 1932.00 1939.00 0.36%

Nickel LME 3M 13020.00 12885.00 -1.04%

Zinc LME 3M 2925.50 2810.50 -3.93%

Gold CME APR 1289.20 1272.10 -1.33%

Silver CME MAY 14.93 14.94 0.03%

WTI Crude oil CME MAR 63.76 63.75 -0.02%

Natural Gas CME MAR 2.65 2.51 -5.61%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 12-Apr 18-Apr % change

Soybean CBOT MAY 914.25 914.25 0.00%

Soy oil CBOT MAY 28.93 28.93 0.00%

CPO BMD JUNE 2166.00 2166.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE MAY 78.01 78.01 0.00%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 191750 189225 -2525 -1.32%

Zinc 56125 73575 17450 31.09%

Aluminium 1074450 1053925 -20525 -1.91%

Lead 75650 74925 -725 -0.96%

Nickel 177708 176292 -1416 -0.80%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 257320 245178 -12142 -4.72%

Zinc 108772 101275 -7497 -6.89%

Aluminium 722092 701138 -20954 -2.90%

*Until Wednesday

WEEKLY STOCK POSITION IN LME (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 39097 38597 -500 -1.28%

CHINESE TRADE WITH DIFFERENT COUNTRIES- (SOURCE- GENERAL CUSTOMS OF CHINA)

Mar-19 Exports Imports BalanceExports

+/-

Imports

+/-

Exports +/-

Imports

+/-

($bln) ($bln) ($bln) (% y/y) (% y/y) (% m/m) (% m/m)

Japan 12.8 14.1 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3

South Korea 9.5 14.8 -5.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3

Taiwan 4.7 13.6 -8.9 0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.4

European Union

33.1 22 11.1 0.2 0 0.3 0.3

USA 31.8 11.3 20.5 0 -0.3 0.4 0.4

Australia 4 9.1 -5.1 0.2 0 0.5 0.2

ASEAN 30.6 21.6 9 0.2 0 0.8 0.4

CFTC REPORT - COPPER (IN CONTRACTS)

Non-Commercial 07-04-2019 14-04-2019 Change % Change

Long 75834 81945 6111 8.06%

Short 73892 77389 3497 4.73%

Spreading 58629 57422 -1207 -2.06%

Commercial

Long 100979 91874 -9105 -9.02%

Short 105851 102655 -3196 -3.02%

Total

Long 235442 231241 -4201 -1.78%

Short 238372 237466 -906 -0.38%

-6.01%

-4.69%

-3.14%

-2.90%

-2.63%

-2.41%

-1.91%

-2.21%

-1.87%

-1.73%

-1.25%

-0.27%

-0.80%

-0.70%

-0.68%

-0.49%

-0.45%

-0.11%

0.03%

0.56%

1.32%

1.67%

2.38%

2.98%

3.74%

-0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

Natural Gas

Castor Seed

Guar Gum

Guar Seed

Nickel

Turmeric

Zinc

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Cardamom

Soy Oil

Gold

Crude Oil

RM Seed

Soybean

Copper

Cotton

Dhaniya

Wheat

Silver

Lead

Aluminum

CPO

Jeera

Barley

Mentha Oil


USD/INR

USDINR is currently trading at 69.35. During the week, it made a high of 69.68 and low of 69.05. The RSI is at 42.60. Moving average of 32 is at 69.74 and 55 is at 70.41. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 69.20-69.10 TP 70.15 SL 68.80.

EUR/INR

EURINR is currently trading at 78.06. During the week, it made a high of 78.77 and low of 78.01. The RSI is trading at 38.90. Moving average of 32 is at 81.01 and 55 is at 80.63. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 78.08-78.18 TP 72.00 SL 78.40.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is currently trading at 90.23. During the week, it made a high of 91.22 and low of 90.18. The RSI is trading at 44.74. Moving average of 32 is at 92.15 and 55 is at 91.53. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 90.50-90.60 TP 89.50 SL 91.10.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is currently trading at 61.97. During the week, it made a high of 62.29 and low of 61.69. The RSI is at 41.20. Moving average of 32 is at 63.70 and 55 is at 62.92. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 62.80-62.90 TP 61.65 SL 63.30.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

US Nonfarm payrolls for March released on Friday last week did not help the dollar index to hold on to its gains above 97.00, the index has fallout on Dovish US Central Bank comments. Albeit, the comments were in sync with the market’s expectations, they have once again confirmed the investor’s doubts of global economic slowdown and a prolonged halt in Fed balance sheet tightening program. With no surprise, European Central Bank has left the interest rates unchanged at 0.00% and cited growing geopolitical tensions as the biggest threat to the world economy. Adding fuel to the doubts, IMF has downgraded the world economic growth to its lowest levels since financial crisis 2008. Back home, as anticipated USDINR pair moved in a tight range around 69.00 a dollar as the stable foreign currency inflows built pressure on the pair while suspected RBI buying under 69.00 limited the gains in Rupee. The movement in GBPUSD pair certainly reflects calm before the storm, the pair moved in a narrow range of 1.3000 to 1.3100. Now, since the European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit deadline to October 2019, it had pushed the burden to UK parliament which should now decide on the option to extend the deadline or exit EU without any deal. CPI & PMI numbers from Euro zone and Retail sales & Housing data from US would dominate the short trading week.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• U.S. jobless benefits dropped to a 49.5 years low pointing to sustained Labor market strength. While US PPI increased 0.6% in March, the largest rise since October 2018.

• UK GDP growth improved to 2.0% (YoY) from 1.5% in contrast to the investors’ expectations at 1.7%.

• Manufacturing production in UK came in above the expectations at 0.9% against 0.2% anticipated but was much lower than the previous number at 1.1% (MoM) (Feb).

• US core CPI declined to 2.0% from 2.1% (YoY) while the PPI numbers improved to 0.6% (MoM) in March.

• Industrial production in Euro zone although negative was better than expected at -0.2% against investors’ expectations at -0.5%.

• India Forex reserves increased to $ 413.78 Bn from $ 411.91 Bn during the week ended on Apr 5th, 2019.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 69.3300 69.7300 68.8300 69.1500

EURINR 77.8325 78.5450 77.6325 78.2525

GBPINR 90.5450 91.2425 89.9525 90.5125

JPYINR 62.2425 62.6075 61.6625 61.7550


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Start Date Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit

22-Apr-19 17:30 UK Steel Production Mar 485.00k Ton (metric)

22-Apr-19 19:30 US Existing Home Sales Mar 5.31M 5.51M Number of

22-Apr-19 19:30 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg Mar -2.3% 11.8% Percent

23-Apr-19 17:30 US Build Permits R Numb Mar Number of

23-Apr-19 17:30 US Build Permits R Chg MM Mar Percent

23-Apr-19 18:25 US Redbook MM 20 Apr, w/e 0.7% Percent

23-Apr-19 18:25 US Redbook YY 20 Apr, w/e 5.0% Percent

23-Apr-19 18:30 US Monthly Home Price MM Feb 0.6% Percent

23-Apr-19 18:30 US Monthly Home Price YY Feb 5.6% Percent

23-Apr-19 18:30 US Monthly Home Price Index Feb 272.0 Index

23-Apr-19 19:30 US New Home Sales-Units Mar 0.650M 0.667M Number of

23-Apr-19 19:30 US New Home Sales Chg MM Mar 4.9% Percent

23-Apr-19 19:30 US Rich Fed Comp. Index Apr 10 Index

23-Apr-19 19:30 US Rich Fed, Services Index Apr 5 Index

23-Apr-19 19:30 US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Apr 2 Index

23-Apr-19 19:30 EU Consumer Confid. Flash Apr -7.0 -7.2 Net balance

24-Apr-19 14:00 UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP Mar 0.450B 0.200B GBP

24-Apr-19 14:00 UK PSNB, GBP Mar -0.664B GBP

24-Apr-19 14:00 UK PSNCR, GBP Mar 0.638B GBP

24-Apr-19 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 19 Apr, w/e -3.5% Percent

24-Apr-19 16:30 US Mortgage Market Index 19 Apr, w/e 459.0 Index

24-Apr-19 16:30 US MBA Purchase Index 19 Apr, w/e 280.7 Index

24-Apr-19 16:30 US Mortgage Refinance Index 19 Apr, w/e 1,453.0 Index

24-Apr-19 16:30 US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 19 Apr, w/e 4.44% Percent

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 19 Apr, w/e -1.396M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 19 Apr, w/e -0.362M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 19 Apr, w/e -1.174M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Imports 19 Apr, w/e -0.659M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 19 Apr, w/e -0.005M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 19 Apr, w/e 0.793M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Prods Imports 19 Apr, w/e 0.678M Barrel/Day

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist Output 19 Apr, w/e -0.215M Barrel/Day

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Runs 19 Apr, w/e -0.022M Barrel/Day

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Refining Util 19 Apr, w/e 0.2% Percent

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 19 Apr, w/e -1.543M Barrel

24-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 19 Apr, w/e -0.252M Barrel/Day

24-Apr-19 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 15 Apr, w/e 22,676k Barrel

24-Apr-19 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 15 Apr, w/e 1,016k Barrel/Day

25-Apr-19 15:30 UK CBI Trends - Orders Apr 2 1 Net balance

25-Apr-19 18:00 US Durable Goods Mar 0.7% -1.6% Percent

25-Apr-19 18:00 US Durables Ex-Transport Mar 0.2% -0.1% Percent

25-Apr-19 18:00 US Durables Ex-Defense MM Mar -1.9% Percent

25-Apr-19 18:00 US Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Mar 0.1% -0.1% Percent

25-Apr-19 20:00 US EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 15 Apr, w/e 92B Cubic foot

25-Apr-19 20:00 US Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 15 Apr, w/e 92B Cubic foot

25-Apr-19 20:30 US KC Fed Manufacturing Apr 17 Index

25-Apr-19 20:30 US KC Fed Composite Index Apr 10 Index (diffusion)

26-Apr-19 14:00 UK UK Finance Mortgage Apps Mar 39.083k Number of

26-Apr-19 15:30 UK CBI Distributive Trades Apr -2 -18 Net balance

26-Apr-19 18:00 US GDP Cons Spending Advance Q1 3.5% Percent

26-Apr-19 18:00 US Core PCE Prices Advance Q1 1.6% Percent

26-Apr-19 18:00 US PCE Prices Advance Q1 1.6% Percent

26-Apr-19 19:30 US U Mich Sentiment Final Apr 97.0 96.9 Index

26-Apr-19 19:30 US U Mich Conditions Final Apr 114.2 Index

26-Apr-19 19:30 US U Mich Expectations Final Apr 85.8 Index

26-Apr-19 19:30 US U Mich 1Yr Inf Final Apr 2.4% Percent

26-Apr-19 19:30 US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final Apr 2.3% Percent

CURRENCY


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