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ISSUE: 061

02ND NOVEMBER, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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The Centre needs to act to save the Telecom industry from its upcoming bankruptcyRecently, the telecom sector was in the news as the SC ruled against the telecom companies’ dispute against the definition of AGR. However, this verdict is likely to push the telecom sector into a financial abyss. As the current operating players are under a severe debt close to Rs. 4 lakh crore, the current verdict against them has a new obligation on the telecom sector to pay Rs. 1.3 lakh crore dues to the government treasury. If we look into the details, the SC has given the verdict mainly taking the migration policy into consideration offered to the telecom operators in 1999. Following the same, the government has converted the payable amount to a licence fee which contains the annual revenue share. This annual revenue share has to be computed from the AGR. However, according to the telecom operators, the Department of Telecom (DoT) modified the definition to include incomes from other streams such as bank deposit interest and gains in currency exchange. The court stated that as the AGR definition was clear enough stated by the DoT, the operators shouldn’t dispute on the definition of AGR as they had availed the benefits of the migration policy. As a result, the telecom operators were asked to pay the dues accrued over the one and half a decade with penalty and interest. This may heavily impact the current players such as Vodafone Idea and Airtel. It is interesting to note that the actual disputed amount is Rs. 23,189 crore while the accrued amount is around Rs. 92,641 crore.

During the hearings, the telecom companies said that the definition of AGR wasn’t justifiable and the DoT has changed the definition without any reasonable discussions within the industry. The DoT has also widened the scope of AGR by including the sale of insurance, shares and scrap. This implies that the license fee is being asked multiple times on the revenue generated since the telecom companies are currently paying fees through an auction for the spectrum since 2010 which is also an upfront amount during the allocation of airwaves. This may drain the telecom companies’ financial position.

A part of the blame may need to be laid on the telecom companies as well, as they haven’t asked or pressed the policymakers to shift to an auction-based mechanism after the migration policy. Even though they disputed the definition of AGR in courts, the telecom companies might have thought of the existing cheap spectrum fees which are based on the subscriber count. However, this short term stunt backfired on them with the current SC ruling. Happened what may, the government may now need to put forward a fit solution to this. Any deviation though may hinder the digital revolution unleashed across the country. Most of the companies have already closed their operations out of the 16 companies against which the DoT has asked for AGR dues. It is evident that the remaining operators are struggling companies or highly debt-laden. Even though the government has set up a panel to review the financial stress in the telecom industry, it would be good if it takes steps to reduce the sectors’ financial burden.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-14

Currency 15-17

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Amit Samar

M V Narasinga Rao

Chetan K Waghray

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Ranjit Deb Jana

Vivek Ranjajn Misra

Sarath Jutur

Thomas V. Abraham

Sachin Mittal

Rahul K Sharma

Akshaya Shinde

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Arpit Chandna

Bharat Sunnam

Ramesh Chenchala

Kushal Asthana

Vinod. J

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy• GST collections remain subdued at Rs. 95, 380 crore in October.

• October Manufacturing Activity at 2-yr low, PMI at 50.6.

• The RBI rubbished reports that it was selling gold from its reserves or trading in the yellow metal. “The fluctuation depicted in Weekly Statistical Supplement (WSS) is due to change in frequency of revaluation from monthly to weekly basis and is based on international prices of gold and exchange rates,” RBI said on its twitter handle.

• Credit balances for consumer loan products grew 17.1% y-o-y in the quarter ended June 2019 compared to 23.5% a year earlier led by a more than 30% rise in credit cards and personal loans even as auto loans, home loans and loan against property declined.

Agriculture• Government fixes sugar sale quota of 20.5 lakh tone for November. As per the notification, 535

mills have been allocated 20.5 lakh tonne of sugar for sale in the current month. This quota is 1.5 lakh tonne less as compared to the allocation for November 2018. Additional quota of sugar has been given to those mills that have completed more than half of the export quota during the 2018-19 season (October-September).

• Onion, tomato prices continue to rule high at Rs. 60-70/KG in Delhi. The price rise in these two perishable vegetables was due to supply disruption in the wake of heavy rains and floods in the main growing states like Maharasthra and Karnataka. The rates have remained high even as the government has boosted supplies through state-owned Mother Dairy’s Safal outlets, cooperatives Nafed and NCCF.

• Stubble burning up by 5% in Punjab and Haryana, but so is harvesting. Officials and experts say the figures for crop-residue fires could be misleading as the number of fires per unit area of harvested rice is so far lower this year.

Banking & Finance• India is among the top countries that safeguard e-money via some sort of deposit insurance or

protection. RBI has prepared a draft National Strategy for Financial Inclusion to deepen financial services’ coverage in the country. The long-awaited strategy is expected to be finalized in 2019 and will cover a five-year period.

• Security researchers at Singapore-based Group-IB had found that card details were being sold at a price of $100 per card, ZDNet had reported. The value of the leaked database has been estimated by the group at $130 Mn. There were about 51.7 million credit cards and 851.5 million debit cards in circulation as of August, RBI data shows.

Auto • Mitsui, TECO to set up plant for EV motors in India. The investment on the plant is being made by

a joint venture (JV), TEMICO set up in April 2018 by Mitsui and TECO to pursue the development, manufacturing, and sales of EV motors and EV powertrains globally. This would be Mitsui’s second major EV venture in India following its investment in SmartE a three-wheeler electric mobility service in July.

• Scrappage policy to be out for public comments by November 15. The policy for voluntary scrapping of old vehicles is expected to spell out disincentives for older vehicles, including manifold increase in re-registration fee of old vehicles. The guidelines issued on October 15th call for formalizing the vehicle scrapping market in India which is unorganized at present.

Power • Progress on stressed thermal asset resolution remains slow with only 10% of affected capacity

resolved, says ICRA. The all India electricity demand growth slowed down to 4.4% in the first six month of FY20, from 6% growth witnessed in the corresponding period of previous year. The slowdown can be attributed to lower demand from household & agriculture.

• Demand for power has been gradually falling over the past few weeks. According to data available, all-India energy demand and supply decreased 1.5% year-on-year and 1.4% year-on-year in September 2019 respectively.

Oil & Gas• The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons said state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

bid for all the seven blocks while Oil India put in an offer for one block at the close of bidding on Thursday. The block in Rajasthan saw competition from ONGC and OIL but the five in Madhya Pradesh and one in West Bengal saw single bids from ONGC, DGH said.

• In a step to expand the energy infrastructure through global investments, the government is set to lease a quarter of its strategic petroleum reserve to Saudi Aramco to store 4.6 million barrels of oil via Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd.

Steel• As per the new reform initiative proposed for mining, the centre would permit steel producers to

use an identified portion of iron ore from their captive mines allotted prior to the auction regime for use by any other of their entities or joint venture operations.

• Defending its decision to attach the assets of bankrupt steel mill Bhushan Power and Steel, the ED said insolvency courts don’t have the jurisdiction to direct release of a company’s assets attached under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).

Railways• In a bid to regulate the use of the colonial era-style carriages and generate additional revenue,

the IRCTC will convert 200 saloons into 10 luxury tourist trains. A designated number of saloons will be kept for use of railway officials for inspection.

• Railways to implement Rs. 18000 crore project to run trains at 160 kmph. The railways’ target is to operate high speed trains in two categories -- at 160 kmph on the Delhi-Mumbai and Delhi-Kolkata routes, and up to 320 kmph under the ongoing bullet train project between Mumbai-Ahmedabad.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• Google to buy wearable maker Fitbit for $2.1 Bn.

• China rolls out 5G telecom services.

• Facebook intends to launch Facebook News outside US.

TRENDSHEETSYMBOL CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 40165.03 39885 40025 40294 40423 Up

NIFTY 11890.60 11809 11850 11925 11959 Up

NIFTYBANK 30330.55 29876 30103 30483 30636 Up

YESBANK 66.15 40 53 79 92 Up

SBIN 313.60 264 289 328 343 Up

TATAMOTORS 175.00 140 158 186 197 Up

RELIANCE 1456.95 1414 1435 1484 1511 Up

INFY 688.60 629 659 707 725 Down

TCS 2207.00 2041 2124 2287 2368 Up

ZEEL 309.40 205 257 338 366 Up

ICICIBANK 462.90 447 455 476 490 Up

MARUTI 7602.00 7204 7403 7780 7958 Up

TATASTEEL 396.40 351 374 411 426 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE/RESULT DATE

Bank of India Quarterly Results 1 Nov 2019

Dr. Reddy’s Ltd. Quarterly Results 1 Nov 2019

JSW Energy Quarterly Results 1 Nov 2019

V-Mart Ltd Quarterly Results 1 Nov 2019

Yes Bank Ltd Quarterly Results 1 Nov 2019

Escorts Ltd. Quarterly Results 2 Nov 2019

HDFC Ltd Quarterly Results 4 Nov 2019

KRBL Quarterly Results 4 Nov 2019

Ajanta Pharma Ltd. Quarterly Results 5 Nov 2019

Dabur India Ltd. Quarterly Results 5 Nov 2019

Bajaj Electricals Ltd. Quarterly Results 6 Nov 2019

Bosch Ltd. Quarterly Results 6 Nov 2019

Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd. Quarterly Results 6 Nov 2019

V Gurad Industries Ltd. Quarterly Results 6 Nov 2019

Power Grid Corp of India Ltd. Quarterly Results 7 Nov 2019

Thyrocare Technologies Ltd. Quarterly Results 7 Nov 2019

Dr. Lalpathlabs Ltd. Quarterly Results 8 Nov 2019

Nestle India Ltd. Quarterly Results 8 Nov 2019

KSTREET - 02ND NOVEMBER, 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

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Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap

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29-10-19 30-10-19 31-10-19 01-11-19

FII/FPI DII


RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 38904 40850 42892

EBITDA 3972 5062 5232

EBITDA(%) 10.2 12.4 12.2

PAT 1265 1723 1856

EPS (Rs.) 4.0 5.4 5.8

RoE (%) 10.1 12.2 11.7

PE (x) 9.9 4.7 4.4

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

L&T Limited CMP Rs.1452

Target Price Rs.1700Upside 17%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 1607/1201

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 2033.5/28.7

EPS (Rs.) 71.4

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 15.5

Dividend Yield (%) 1.1%

Stock Exchange BSE,NSE

EQUITY

Investment Rationale

• L&T’s revenue grew by 15% YoY to Rs.353 Bn mainly led by sustained execution of key projects and inclusion of Mindtree’s revenue (~Rs.19 Bn).

• Slow-moving projects (AP projects and coastal project in Mumbai) stood at Rs.160 Bn which was earlier factored in by the management for revenue growth guidance of 12-15% but guidance will remain same due to pick up in key infrastructure, hydrocarbon and international projects.

• Firm is expected to meet 12% inflow growth with total opportunity of Rs. 5.3 Tn where Rs. 4.5 Tn is expected to come from infra projects alone.

• We expect water, railways, metro, roads, bridges, hydrocarbon and power transmission to generate healthy order inflow in the coming months.

• The 2 year old tracked artillery gun order continues to drive revenues and margins while slow policy decision making continues to be a dampener, inhibiting private sector participation.

• IT and TS segment continues to be plagued by increasing protectionist policies and localization policies (especially in the US) leading to margin impact due to increased resource cost.

Valuation

A significant jump in order inflow and continued improvement in RoE were heartening despite moderate deterioration in working capital. Going forward, given strong order pipeline and likely revival of ordering activities from the government side, we expect momentum in order inflow to sustain as well. We continue to view L&T as the best infrastructure player in India considering huge opportunity, proven execution track record and strong diversification. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based Target Price of Rs. 1700 with an upside potential of 17%. Key risks (1) Delays in government infrastructure spend (2) Delayed pick up in private sector spend and (3) Stressed payment cycles for government projects.

0%

37%

20%

43%Govt.

DII

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BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Indoco Remedies Ltd. CMP Rs.161

Target Price Rs.189Upside 17%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 239/132

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 15/209

EPS (Rs.) 13.5

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 14

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange NSE

EQUITY

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Investment Rationale

• In domestic formulations business, company expects to achieve 15% growth during FY20E and double digit growth for FY21E.

• Company will not be adding any further field force for its business, this will improve productivity and profitability.

• European market is back on track and all regulatory issues have been resolved. A full GMP status has been reinstated for Goa plant I by UK - MHRA so henceforth we expect sales growth in European revenues. We have factored revenue of Rs. 1700 Mn for FY20E and Rs. 2000 Mn for FY21E.

• On the US front, for Goa plant I, company has received warning letter in July 2019 and for the same US consultants have appointed on board for remedial action. Currently, company is in the process of firming up supply arrangements with distributors. Full scale supply is expected to commence from Q4FY20E. We expect good revenue traction in FY21 from US markets. We have factored sales of Rs. 440 Mn for FY20E and Rs. 2090 Mn for FY21E.

Valuation

We downgrade our revenues for FY20E/FY21E by 6.4%/4.7% due to downgrade in regulated markets and API revenues. We downgrade our EBDITAM for FY20E by 30 bps on account of lower gross margins and higher other expenses while we upgrade our EBDITAM by 90 bps for FY21E due to better gross margins, lower staff cost and R & D expenses. We downgrade our FY20E EPS by 10% to Rs. 4.5 while we upgrade our EPS by 1.7% to Rs. 13.5 for FY21E. We revise our price target to Rs. 189 based on 14x FY 21E and maintain our BUY on the stock.

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 9,685 11,334 14,528

EBITDA 610 1,191 2,308

EBITDA(%) 6.3 10.5 15.9

PAT 116 415 1,240

EPS (Rs.) 1.3 4.6 13.5

RoE (%) 1.7 6.1 16.7

PE (x) 127 35.4 11.8

59%

4%

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27%Promoters

FIIs

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Sensex (LHS) Indoco Remedies (RHS)


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Axis Bank

AXISBANK is our preferred bet amongst banking sector. The stock has been in the secular uptrend on the weekly charts making higher highs and higher lows. The stock has closed the previous month with a gain of nearly around 6.88% outperforming the BANK NIFTY index which closed the month in green and generated a positive return of around 3.19%. The stock has given the price breakout around 734 levels and closed well above the same. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. The up move in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts which indicates strength in the up move. The stock is trading above all its major moving averages on daily charts which confirms our bullish view in the stock. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line on weekly charts. The parabolic SAR is trading below its price action on daily charts that reflect uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take it up move. The support is placed around 685 and below that are 660 levels. Whereas minor resistance is placed at 785 levels and above that are 800 and 825 levels. We hold our bullish view in the stock and expect that up move in the stock will remain intact in near term. Stock is well placed to take its up move for upside target of 840 and above that is 850 levels with a stop loss placed below 670 levels.

Bharat Electronics Limited

BEL has given price breakout around 117 levels. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. The stock is in uptrend and making higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts and has outperformed Nifty last week and closed the week with a positive return of around 3.21%. Whereas Nifty managed to close the week in red and generated a positive return of 2.27%. Prior to that, the stock has seen profit taking from the high of around 116 levels which has placed the stock to the swing low of around 91 levels. Thereafter, the stock has resumed its up move with supportive volume formation on daily charts which indicates accumulation in the stock at current levels. The historical price action in the stock reflects that the any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants which will help the stock to resume its up move. Currently, the stock is trading above all its major moving averages on daily charts. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The parabolic SAR is trading well below the price action which indicates up move in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take its up move. Hence, we suggest buy in the stock around 119 levels for the target of 136 levels and above that at 139 levels with a stop loss placed below 108 levels and any dip towards 115 levels can be used for averaging the stock.

STOCK AXISBANK

CMP 748.30

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 745

AVERAGE 710

STOP LOSS 670

TARGET 1 840

TARGET 2 850

TIME FRAME 4-5 MONTHS

STOCK BEL

CMP 120.10

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 119

AVERAGE 115

STOP LOSS 108

TARGET 1 136

TARGET 2 139

TIME FRAME 4-5 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 1460

Stop Loss 1530

Target 1370

Lot Size 600

Margin 216000

21-DEMA 1613

Open Interest Shares 3179400

Change in OI 130800

Cost of Carry (%) 2.58

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY BANK (30330.55) outperformed the Nifty with a gain of 2.76% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 2.27%. During the last three weeks, the index moved with a renewed buying and bounced off the 27568 levels. Technically, the index is trading with a bullish bias forming higher highs and higher lows as seen on the daily charts. This index currently may witness resistance around its previous swing resistance around 30800 levels. Bank of India reported a net profit of Rs. 266.37 crore for the second quarter ending September 30 due to a decline in provisions for bad loans. The bank had posted a loss of Rs. 1,156.25 crore in the July-September quarter last fiscal. On an another note, SEBI has asked listed banks to disclose bad loan divergences with the Reserve Bank of India’s assessment within a day of receiving a final report from the banking regulator, tightening norms for asset quality disclosures. On the stock front, YESBANK, RBLBANK and SBIN closed in green with gains of 20.82%, 19.23% and 11.28% respectively during the week while ICICIBANK lost by 1.42%. As indicated by the derivatives data, Bank Nifty may face resistance at 30500 followed by 31000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 30000 followed by 29500 levels.

NIFTY AUTO (8,389.35) has outperformed Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week with positive gains of around 3.55%. The index is in the cycle of higher highs and higher lows on daily chart and has witnessed resistance breakout from the previous swing closing of 8000 levels suggesting strength in the counter. The surge in the price was being backed by increase in average traded volumes indicating new participants accumulating the index. On charts, the immediate support for the index is pegged around 8000 levels which is the recent breakout levels; sustaining above which the index may witness another round of rally while on the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 8500-8550 levels which is above its 200 DEMA, followed by 8650-8700 zone which is the next crucial resistance levels for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed sharp rally from the mean of the Bollinger (20, 2) and is currently settled near the upper band, at the same time the band is getting expanded indicating a higher probability of index to continue the movement in near future, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 70-75 levels post a positive crossover on daily chart suggesting further upside room in the counter.

NIFTY METAL (2,561.75) has resumed its up move after a small pause previous week. The index has gained more than 5.50% and closed at 2561, thereby outperforming Nifty 50 which has gained around 2%. The strong move on Tuesday and Friday has helped the metal index to outperform significantly and close above its previous major swing highs of 2530. On daily charts, the index has moved strongly after taking support from its short term moving averages and with the Friday’s close, the index has given break and confirmation of double bottom. On the derivative front, a long rollover into November series in most of the stocks indicates the ongoing positivity is likely to continue. The breadth of the index is very positive with 12 stocks ending in green and rest 3 closing slightly in red. Leading the leader board, most of the private steel players have gained more. JINDALSTEL 15%, JSLHISAR 12%, SAIL 10%, HINDCOPPER 10% have gained more than 10% while TATASTEEL 9%, JSWSTEEL 8%, HINALCO 6%, NATIONALUM 6%, VEDL 6% have gained more than 5% and rest have managed to clock gains in the range of 1% to 4%. On the flipside, HINDZINC and MOIL have lost around 5% and WELCORP has managed to close below the neutral line. For now, the immediate supports for the index is placed near its recent swing lows of 2490-2500 and below it at around 2400-2410 shall act as a support, on the other hand, resistance may be assumed at around 2650-2680 and above it at around 2720-2740 levels. Going forward, we assume the index is likely to continue its up move and may trade in the range of 2500 to 2700.

NIFTY FIN SERVICE (13,585.30) has underperformed Nifty and closed the week with a positive return of around 1.54%. Whereas Nifty has closed the week with a positive return of around 2.34%. The index has moved well after making support around 12535 levels. The bounce in the index has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. The index is trading above all its major moving average and is expected to trade in the range of 13200-13900 levels in coming trading session. The historical price action suggests that the any meaningful dip in the index may attract market participants. The index has seen stock specific action. Most of the stocks from the financial space have seen trading with positive bias in previous trading week. The immediate support in the index comes around 13300 and below that are 13100 levels. The index may find resistance around 13850 and above that are 14200 levels. The stocks from the sector that have closed the week with negative bias are BAJAJFINSV, BAJFINANCE, HDFC, IBULHSGFIN and ICICIPRULI generating negative return of around 4.90%, 2.32%, 1.17%, 14% and 4.72% respectively. Whereas the stocks like HDFLIFE and MFSL have closed the week with a positive return of around 1.56% and 2.0% respectively. Stock specific action is expected from the sector in the coming week. We hold our positive view in the index for the week and expect stock specific action.

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD: BUY HINDALCO (NOV FUTURE) | CMP: 194.60 SECTOR: METALS

HINDALCO has given breakout from the multi day trading range and closed above its previous major swing highs of 191, thereby confirming double bottom. The stock has gained more than 6% for the week and has slightly outperformed metal index which has gained more than 5.50%. With Friday’s gain, the stock has moved significantly well above its all major short and medium term moving averages indicating probable start of new up move in the counter. Last week’s price and volumes action supported by momentum setup indicate more upside is likely in the counter. Also, prices are trading in the range of middle to upper band suggesting inherent strength in the counter. Its derivative activity suggests long built up and positivity in the counter for the near term. The stock is on the verge of breaking out of long term downward sloping channel indicating probable start of fresh long term up move is likely. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate long position.

Sentiment

Initiation 194.50

Stop Loss 186

Target 209

Lot Size 3500

Margin 122000

21-DEMA 187

Open Interest Shares 25466000

Change in OI 21577500

Cost of Carry (%) 5.02

INTERGLOBE AVIATION LIMITED: SELL INDIGO (NOV FUTURE) | CMP: 1441.40 SECTOR: AVIATION

INDIGO has been one of the underperformers in the broader markets in the past week and is trading with sideways to bearish bias on the weekly charts. At current juncture, the counter is trading well below the major short term moving averages and minor pullbacks are witnessing supply indicating participants are not much interested on the stock. The stock has cracked previous week from the highs of 1670 odd levels to 1380, and bears have gained grip in that decline. On the weekly charts, the stock has moved below the mean of the Bollinger band (20, 2) indicating underlying weakness is likely to continue. The stock is expected to retest and slide below the recent swing lows of 1380 levels in the near term. The parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) on daily chart is trading above the price on daily chart indicating weakness is likely to continue in the stock. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate short position.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11890.60): Markets started new Samvat with a gap up and finished the truncated week on a positive note with a gain of more than 2.50%. It was a five on five gain throughout the week. Positive

global data, clubbed with dovish policy from US Fed has triggered positive sentiments across emerging equities. Slew of economic data across globe and monetary policies will decide the further course

of global markets while on the domestic front, no major domestic trigger is lined up but stock specific activity shall increase due to the announcement of quarterly results. In the coming week, around

700 listed companies are scheduled to declare their report cards.

As we move towards the fag end of the result season, 45 stocks from derivative listed space shall disclose their Q2 numbers. Companies like HDFC, TECHM, TITAN, CIPLA, TATASTEEL, BPCL, SUNPHARMA,

UPL, EICHERMOTORS and M&M from Nifty 50 index are scheduled to declare their numbers this week, Technically, Nifty has support near 11750-11800 and below it at 11600-11650 may act as demand

zone while resistance may be assumed at psychological 12000 levels and beyond it all time high may act as a supply zone. Going forward we expect Nifty 50 index to continue its upward trajectory and

is likely to trade in the range of 11750-12100 and breach of the same shall trigger next major move in the direction of the breakout.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE: BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 07 NOV 11800 CE @ 140

STG OUTFLOW 10500.00

BEP 11940.00

MAX PROFIT Unlimited above BEP

MAX LOSS 10500.00

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with bullish bias in the near term.

TYPE: BUY CALL IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANK NIFTY 07 NOV 30200 CE @ 375

STG OUTFLOW 7500.00

BEP 30575.00

MAX PROFIT Unlimited above BEP

MAX LOSS 7,500.00

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with bullish bias in the near term.

TYPE: LONG PUT SPREAD IN TVSMOTOR

FIRST LEG BUY one lot of TVSMOTOR 28 NOV 500 PE @ 52

SECOND LEG SELL one lot of TVSMOTOR 28 NOV 450 PE @ 19

MAX PROFIT 18,700.00

STG OUTFLOW 36,300.00

BEP 467.00

MAX LOSS 36,300.00

RATIONALE The Stock is expected to trade with Bearish bias in the near term.

TYPE: LONG CALL SPREAD IN SBIN

FIRST LEG BUY one lot of SBIN 28 NOV 300 CE @ 21.75

SECOND LEG SELL one lot of SBIN 28 NOV 330 CE @ 7.25

MAX PROFIT 46,500.00

STG OUTFLOW 43,500.00

BEP 314.50

MAX LOSS 43,500.00

RATIONALE The Stock is expected to trade with Bullish bias in the near term.

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DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

DISHTV 16.3 29.88% 101108000 16.33%

SUNTV 542.85 2.99% 2957000 14.43%

BAJAJFINSV 8420.05 3.06% 1450625 11.64%

CIPLA 471.3 0.34% 14586000 11.12%

TECHM 764 2.93% 19712400 11.08%

CUMMINSIND 552.6 1.23% 9072000 24.63

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


INFRATEL 202.15 6.31% 8322000 -9.64%

HEXAWARE 339.4 2.21% 1894500 -7.74%

INDUSINDBK 1380.85 5.15% 11942000 -6.08%

UNIONBANK 58.95 2.52% 30016000 -5.01%

BANKBARODA 100.1 2.56% 69493500 -3.57%

TATAELXSI 829.55 0.78% 1089000 -3.30%

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


BANKINDIA 68.95 -3.63% 29052000 33.31%

JUSTDIAL 560.15 -5.34% 3453800 32.14%

APOLLOTYRE 188.35 -1.49% 5901000 23.09%

ADANIPORTS 391.65 -1.52% 15062500 10.55%

CENTURYTEX 412.65 -2.69% 1764600 10.11%

DRREDDY 2768.95 -0.84% 3341000 9.59%

TOP 5 LONG CLOSURE


TATAMTRDVR 81.35 -0.63% 5151000 -4.72%

HAVELLS 691.45 -2.46% 26505500 -2.07%

IOC 142.95 -1.13% 1282200 -2.07%

MGL 1013.00 -3.53% 2572900 -1.97%

BATAINDIA 1733.20 -2.69% 1764600 -1.89%

ASHOKLEY 76.35 -0.78% 58800000 -1.60%

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold prices weakened on Friday after China reported strong data on the start of Friday’s morning session whereas the market was awaiting the US employment data to reflect the impact of a long drawn trade war on its economy. Caixin, the private business survey showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in well over two years in October as new export orders rose and plants ramped up production. The market sentiment went to higher notes after US President Donald Trump said that the two sides would soon announce a new venue for the signing of a “Phase One” trade deal, after protests in Chile had seen a planned summit there this month cancelled. A near 16-month long trade war between the two economies has slowed global trade, stirred recession fears for some economies and roiled financial markets. During the week, US Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point. But the central bank signalled there would be no further cuts unless the economy takes a turn for the worse. Asian shares fell on Friday on fresh concerns over Sino-US trade prospects and ahead of US economic data while the dollar eased against major rivals. European shares rose, on track for their best day in more than a week, as a surprise bounce in China’s manufacturing activity calmed worried investors about the progress in US-China trade talks due to conflicting tones. As per New York’s SPDR gold trust, holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF) fell 0.19% on Wednesday from Tuesday.

ENERGYCrude oil prices traded down this week over the increasing global oil supplies and weaker demand concerns. The prices on Thursday closed at $54.18/bbl down by 1.6% whereas the prices at MCX futures closed at Rs.3853/bbl lower by 0.7%. The dollar traded near a three-week low on Friday opening trade vs. the yen before a US employment report expected to show a slowdown in job creation, highlighting concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy. As per EIA, US crude production soared nearly 600,000 barrels per day in August to a record of 12.4 million, buoyed by a 30% increase in Gulf of Mexico output. The US has now become the world’s largest oil producer with output surging to above 12 million bpd this year as technological advances have increased production from shale formations across Texas, North Dakota and New Mexico. Meanwhile, Reuter’s survey reported that OPEC’s total oil output in the month of October recovered from eight year lower levels amid the speedy recovery in oil production by Saudi Arabia after the attacks on its oil facilities in mid September. As per EIA weekly storage report, crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose 5.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 25 compared with market’s expectations for a 494,000-barrel build up. US energy companies reduced the number of oil rigs operating this week by cutting 17, leading to a record 11-month decline as producers follow through on plans to cut spending on new drilling. The total count came down to 696, the lowest since April 2017and was the biggest weekly decline since April. Natural gas futures prices tumbled on Thursday after the weekly storage data suggested the higher injections in the stocks than expected and from prior week’s of injection but the prices remained poised to post weekly gains. EIA weekly storage report released on Thursday showed an injection of 89 Bcf higher than prior injections of 87 Bcf. According to the EIA, natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 2% week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 1% week over week. In the residential and commercial

sectors, consumption surged by 6% whereas natural gas exports to Mexico decreased by 2%. The prices are expected to remain buoyed as colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the US over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Most of the mid-west will experience mid-winter weather during this period.

METALSMetals traded on a mixed to negative note for the week ended on Nov 1 amid the host of events viz., Fed interest rate cuts and quarterly US growth rates. Imports of aluminium scrap at China scrap rose from 17.9% in 2018 to stand at 114,300 tons in September, as per the latest customs, after the imports increased 7.4% on a yearly basis in August, the first month after import restrictions on high-grade aluminium scrap took effect. Treatment Charges of copper in 2020 is likely to fall by 13% from 2019 to $60-70 a tonne due to tight ore supply. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 2.52 million tonnes in 2020 vs. 2.45 million tonnes in 2019 while global output of nickel is expected to increase to 2.48 million tonnes in 2020 vs. 2.37 million tonnes in 2019, the International Nickel Study Group said. Lead concentrate output was at 1.055 million tons from January to July, which was down by 3.4% or 32,000 tons from the same period in 2018 in China. Fall in zinc on-warrant supply to LME warehouses is making the metal to trade higher. The premium between the three month and cash markets rose to $46.5 after September 30 indicating supply concerns. Aluminium sheet exports from China stood at 197,100 tons in September, which was down by 9.7% from August and 20.2% from September 2018 according to the latest data from China Customs. During the first nine months of 2019, China’s exports of aluminium sheet, plate and strip amounted to 2.01 million tons, which was down by 3% from 2018. The manufacturing production at Chile’s mine dropped 1.5% in September compared to the same month the previous year amid a 5.4% decrease in mining production, which indicates a rise in production activities making the metal to trade with negative sentiment.

GUARGuar seed and gum futures witnessed smart recovery during the week ended on 01st Nov 2019, as prices recovered due to anticipation of bargain buying at lower levels. Improved demand amid restricted supply adds positive sentiments in the market. Speculators made a fresh position in the physical market due to enhance demand by the major guar industries which led to pull the prices upward. Arrivals were down during the week in the North West region of Rajasthan and Haryana. Spot markets also witnessed improved buying amid restricted supply in major belts of the Northwest region. Gum exports increased due to recovery in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. As per the data from the agriculture and processed food products export development authority, India guar gum export from Apr-August 2019 is 222454 MT, a gain by 23% YoY. Rajasthan government has released its first advanced estimates that showed total guar production for the year 2019-20 at 17.16 lakh tonnes, whereas the Gujarat first advance estimation showed 10.56 lakh tonnes of guar production in the year 2019-20. Guar seed most active November contract made a high of Rs. 4480 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 4074 per quintal, up by 0.48% whereas gum futures for the same expiry made a high of Rs. 7720 per quintal and closed the week at Rs. 7704 per quintal, gained by 1.04% expiry making a high of Rs. 4194 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 4182 per quintal, gained by 1.49%.

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 25-Oct 1-Nov % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 38269.0 38426.0 0.4% 39885.00 -3.66% 30107.00 27.63%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 46306.0 46699.0 0.8% 50672.00 -7.84% 34981.00 33.50%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3993.0 3868.0 -3.1% 4860.00 -20.41% 2993.00 29.23%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 163.9 184.3 12.4% 358.70 -48.62% 144.60 27.46%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 436.5 437.3 0.2% 468.65 -6.69% 397.40 10.04%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 164.9 156.7 -5.0% 169.90 -7.77% 123.80 26.58%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 187.8 188.1 0.2% 233.65 -19.52% 167.20 12.47%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1222.9 1199.0 -2.0% 1314.80 -8.81% 735.00 63.13%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 129.1 132.0 2.2% 158.25 -16.62% 124.75 5.77%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3780.0 3873.0 2.5% 4097.00 -5.47% 3252.00 19.10%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 765.9 772.0 0.8% 784.00 -1.53% 713.60 8.18%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4297.0 4293.0 -0.1% 4339.00 -1.06% 3711.00 15.68%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 572.4 588.9 2.9% 590.70 -0.30% 483.40 21.82%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4506.0 4468.0 -0.8% 6300.00 -29.08% 4176.00 6.99%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6090.0 6288.0 3.3% 7360.00 -14.57% 5560.00 13.09%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 16500.0 16600.0 0.6% 21000.00 -20.95% 15140.00 9.64%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6548.0 6945.0 6.1% 7688.00 -9.66% 5267.00 31.86%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 2576.6 2507.1 -2.7% 4265.30 -41.22% 1375.90 82.22%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2151.0 2131.0 -0.9% 2171.00 -1.84% 1770.00 20.40%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4054.0 4100.0 1.1% 4869.50 -15.80% 3731.00 9.89%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 7625.0 7737.0 1.5% 10317.00 -25.01% 7002.00 10.50%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 19460.0 19430.0 -0.2% 22640.00 -14.18% 18910.00 2.75%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2216.0 2304.0 4.0% 3698.00 -37.70% 1795.00 28.36%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1201.6 1223.5 1.8% 1826.00 -33.00% 1176.00 4.04%


COMMODITIES

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER NOV MCX: SELL AT 442-443 TP 433 SL ABOVE 448

CRUDE OIL NOV MCX: SELL AT 3900-3930 TP 3700 SL 4030

SILVER DEC MCX: BUY AT 46000-46100 TP 47500 SL 45500


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• US soybeans in the week ended Oct. 24 and shipped more than half a million tonnes, the most since August, the US Department of Agriculture reported on Thursday. Purchases of US agricultural products are seen as key to securing a deal to end a bilateral trade war between the US and China that has lasted more than a year.

• US personal spending activity for September has come down to 0.2% from the market expectations of 0.3% which made the dollar to remain weaker. The core personal consumption expenditure was also down to 0% from the expected 0.1% making the metals to remain neutral.

• Chinese manufacturing PMI was released earlier which came in at 49.3 for October against the market expectations of 49.9 which will be negative for metal prices. The Non-manufacturing PMI also was down to 52.8 for October from the expectations of 53.7. On the early Friday session, China’s manufacturing PMI taken up by a private study group was up and stood at 51.7 for October against the market expectations of 51.

• According to assessments by Refinitiv Oil Research, crude oil’s october arrivals into Asia were assessed at a 6- month high of 108.99 million mt (25.77 million bpd), comprising of 105.35 million mt of seaborne imports to Asia and an additional 3.64 million mt of Chinese pipeline imports from Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia.

• Top palm oil industry analysts on Friday revised up their price outlook for the edible oil, pointing to reduced production and optimism that Indonesia’s so-called B30 biodiesel programme will help bolster demand.

• US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that it would take time for Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods to “scale up” $40 Bn to $50 Bn annual level if the two sides can seal a Phase one trade deal.

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THE SOLVENT EXTRACTORS’ ASSOCIATION OF INDIA

COMPARATIVE RATE AS REGISTERED AS ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2019; A WEEK BEFORE ; A MONTH & ONE YEAR BEFORE

Sl.No 25TH OCT’19 CHANGE% 18TH

OCT’19 CHANGE% 25TH SEP’19 CHANGE% AVERAGE

OCT’19

I. OILSEEDS (Rs./M.T) Ex-Mandi

1. Groundnut seed Kernel (Saurashtra) Crushing Quality 54,000 0.00 54,000 -3.57 56,000 26.88 42,560

2. Soyabean seed (Indore) 37,500 1.35 37,000 -3.85 39,000 14.96 32,620

3. Rape/Mustard seed (Rajasthan) 43,000 -0.23 43,100 2.87 41,800 0.32 42,864

4. Sunflower seed (Karn./Mah.) 46,000 0.00 46,000 0.00 46,000 11.11 41,400

5. Castorseed (Gujarat) NQ -- 45,150 -- 54,600 -- 50,092

6. Sesameseed(white 98/2)(Saurashtra) 106,000 0.95 105,000 7.07 99,000 -2.52 108,740

II. OILCAKES (Rs./ M.T.) O & A /S & S

1. Groundnut Exp. cake (Guj) 50/2.5 29,000 0.00 29,000 0.00 29,000 15.17 25,180

2. Sunflowerseed Exp. cake(Mah/Karn)25/2.5 26,500 0.00 26,500 -1.85 27,000 17.26 22,600

3. Rapeseed Exp.cake (Rajasthan) 40/2.5 21,000 2.69 20,450 6.87 19,650 6.62 19,696

III. RICE BRAN (Rs./M.T.)

1. Rice Bran Raw (16/5/8) Punjab 25,000 2.04 24,500 -7.41 27,000 25.25 19,960

IV. EXTRACTIONS

(A) LOCAL EX-MILL (Rs./MT) O & A/S & S

1. Groundnut Ext. (Ex-Saurashtra) 45/2.5 24,500 0.00 24,500 -2.00 25,000 11.06 22,060

2. Rice Bran Ext. (Ex-Punjab) 16/5/8 16,200 1.89 15,900 -3.57 16,800 59.01 10,188

3. Kardi Ext.(Ex-Maharashtra) 20/2.5 NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

4. Soya Ext.( Ex-Indore) 48/2.5 32,000 -1.54 32,500 -4.48 33,500 21.53 26,332

5. Rapeseed Ext.(Ex-Rajasthan) 38/2.5 16,800 2.44 16,400 7.69 15,600 8.89 15,428

6. Sunflowerseed Ext.(Ex-Mah/Karn) 30/2.5 23,500 0.00 23,500 -2.08 24,000 18.45 19,840

7. Cottonseed Ext. (Ex-Guntur) 38/16 O & A & Fibre 28,000 0.00 28,000 -9.68 31,000 13.73 24,620

(B) EXPORT (FAS) (US$ / MT)

1. Soyabean Ext(Bulk)Yellow (Ex-Kandla)48/2.5 430 -1.15 435 -2.27 440 20.45 357

2. Rapeseed Ext. (Bulk) (Ex-Kandla)38/2.5 240 0.00 240 6.67 225 4.80 229

3. Groundnut Ext.(Bulk) (Ex-Mundra) 45/2.5 NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

4. Castormeal Ext. (Bulk)(Ex-Kandla) 94 0.00 94 -6.00 100 5.62 89

5. Rice Bran Ext. (Bulk)(Ex-Kolkata) 16/3.5 220 0.00 220 0.00 220 -- NQ

(C) EXPORT (FOR) Ports (Rs./MT)

1. Soyabean Ext.(Bulk)Yellow(Ex-Kandla) 48/2.5 32,500 -1.52 33,000 -5.80 34,500 16.15 27,980

2. Rapeseed Ext. (Bulk) (Ex-Kandla)38/2.5 17,700 2.91 17,200 7.93 16,400 7.98 16,392

3. Groundnut Ext.(Bulk) (Ex-Mundra) 45/2.5 NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

4. Castormeal(Bulk) (Ex-Kandla) 6,450 0.00 6,450 -5.84 6,850 -0.74 6,498


V. INTERNATIONAL OILS(US$/M.T)

1. RBD Palmolein FOB Malaysia/Indonesia 565 4.24 542 7.62 525 4.24 542

2. (a) RBD Palmolein C&F Mumbai (Indonesia) 590 4.42 565 7.27 550 3.87 568

2. (b) RBD Palmolein C&F Mumbai(Malyasia) 590 4.42 565 7.27 550 -- NQ

3. Crude Palm Oil(CPO) FOB Indonesia 542 4.84 517 10.61 490 7.54 504

4. Crude Palm Oil(CPO)C&F Mumbai 575 6.48 540 9.11 527 8.70 529

5. Soya Degum Oil(Crude) CIF Mumbai 734 2.37 717 2.80 714 3.97 706

6. Sunflower Oil (Crude) CIF Mumbai 740 -0.67 745 -1.60 752 3.21 717

7. Castor Oil (First Grade) FOB Kandla (Export) 1,330 0.38 1,325 -15.56 1,575 -4.80 1,397

8. Rapeseed Oil (Canola Oil ) C&F Mumbai 780 -1.89 795 0.00 780 5.41 740

VI. LOCAL RATE FOR DOMESTIC & IMPORTED OILS (Rs./M.T.)

(a) Local Oils (Expeller) (Rs./MT)

1. Groundnut Oil 99,000 1.02 98,000 -2.94 102,000 7.14 92,400

2. Rapeseed Oil 80,000 2.56 78,000 1.27 79,000 -4.33 83,620

3. Sunflower Oil 78,000 0.65 77,500 -1.27 79,000 2.20 76,320

4. Kardi Oil NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

5. Linseed Oil 81,500 0.00 81,500 -2.40 83,500 -9.61 90,160

6. Sesame Oil 240,000 0.00 240,000 -2.04 245,000 2.04 235,200

7. Washed Cottonseed Oil 79,500 1.27 78,500 2.58 77,500 3.73 76,640

8. Castor Oil (Comm) 95,000 -1.04 96,000 -17.39 115,000 -7.16 102,332

9. Mahua Oil NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

10. Karanja Oil 80,000 0.00 80,000 8.11 74,000 -5.44 84,600

(b) Imported Oils (Rs./M.T.)

1. RBD Palmolein 65,500 3.15 63,500 3.97 63,000 -3.80 68,084

2. Crude Degummed Soybean Oil (Ex-Mumbai) 72,500 2.84 70,500 2.11 71,000 1.84 71,192

3. Crude Palm Oil (5%) (Ex-Kandla) 57,900 4.51 55,400 6.04 54,600 -2.01 59,088

VII. SOLVENT EXTRACTED OILS (Rs./MT.)

1. SE Soyabean Oil (Indore) 73,000 1.39 72,000 1.39 72,000 1.88 71,652

2. SE R.B. Oil (RG-I) 64,000 0.00 64,000 0.00 64,000 -8.57 70,000

3. SE R.B. Oil RG-II (Industrial) 61,000 0.00 61,000 0.00 61,000 -8.96 67,000

4. SE Neem Oil 125,000 0.00 125,000 4.17 120,000 4.17 120,000

VIII. REFINED OIL (Excl.ST) (Rs./MT)

1. SE Refined Cottonseed Oil 82,000 0.99 81,200 3.80 79,000 4.47 78,492

2. SE Refined Rapeseed Oil NQ -- NQ -- NQ -- NQ

3. Refined Soyabean Oil 75,000 0.67 74,500 0.00 75,000 -0.24 75,180

4. Refined Rice Bran Oil (Punjab) 76,000 2.01 74,500 -0.65 76,500 -7.59 82,240

5. Refined Sunflowerseed Oil 82,000 0.61 81,500 -1.20 83,000 1.28 80,960

6. Refined Groundnut Oil 100,000 -0.99 101,000 0.50 99,500 7.92 92,660


COMMODITIES

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 255650 255025 -625 -0.24%

Zinc 57775 54500 -3275 -5.67%

Aluminium 963825 956200 -7625 -0.79%

Lead 69550 70075 525 0.75%

Nickel 70650 66306 -4344 -6.15%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 143010 149911 6901 4.83%

Zinc 64075 61799 -2276 -3.55%

Aluminium 294837 278736 -16101 -5.46%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 34713 36285 1572 4.53%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 25-Oct 01-Nov % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1734.00 1759.00 1.44%

Copper LME 3M 5907.50 5806.00 -1.72%

Lead LME 3M 2217.00 2158.00 -2.66%

Nickel LME 3M 16850.00 16690.00 -0.95%

Zinc LME 3M 2514.50 2489.00 -1.01%

Gold CME Aug 1538.10 1538.10 0.00%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 56.63 54.14 -4.40%

Natural Gas CME June 2.32 2.64 13.95%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 25-Oct 01-Nov % change

Soybean CBOT July 948.75 945.00 -0.40%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

CCEA APPROVES MSP FOR RABI CROPS OF 2019-20 TO BE MARKED IN RABI MARKETING SEASON 2020-21

• Wheat farmers to get more than double the average cost of production• The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra

Modi has approved the increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for all mandated Rabi Crops of 2019-20 to be marketed in Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2020-21.

Benefits and Major Impact:• The increase in MSP for Rabi Crops for RMS 2020-21 is in line with the principle of fixing the

MSPs at a level of at least 1.5 times of the all India weighted average cost of production (CoP), which was announced in the Union Budget 2018-19.

• This MSP policy whereby the farmers are assured of a minimum of 50% as margin of profit is one of the important and progressive steps towards doubling farmers’ income by 2022 and improving their welfare substantively.

• For the Rabi crops of RMS 2020-21, the highest increase in MSP has been recommended for lentil (Rs. 325 per quintal) followed by safflower (Rs. 270 per quintal) and gram (Rs. 255 per quintal) which is a major step towards increasing the income of farmers.

• The MSP of Rapeseed & Mustard has been increased by Rs. 225 per quintal. For both wheat and barley, the MSP has been increased by Rs. 85 per quintal. Wheat farmers will hence get a return over cost of 109% (refer table below).

• Cost of production is one of the important factors in the determination of MSPs. This year’s increase in MSP of Rabi crops for RMS 2020-21 provides higher than 50% return (except safflower) over all India weighted average cost of production. The return over all India weighted average cost of production is 109% for wheat; 66% for barley; 74% for gram: 76% for lentil; 90% for rapeseed & mustard and 50% for safflower.

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICES (MSPS) FOR RABI MARKETING SEASON (RMS) 2020-21

Sl.No Crops

Cost* of production

RMS 2020-21

MSP for RMS 2019-

20

MSP for RMS

2020-21

Absolute increase in

MSP

Return over cost ( in

per¬cent)

1 Wheat 923 1840 1925 85 109

2 Barley 919 1440 1525 85 66

3 Gram 2801 4620 4875 255 74

4 Lentil 2727 4475 4800 325 76

5Rapeseed &

Mustard2323 4200 4425 225 90

6 Safflower 3470 4945 5215 270 50

-4.97%

-3.13%

-2.70%

-1.98%

-0.93%

-0.84%

-0.15%

-0.09%

0.00%

0.16%

0.18%

0.42%

0.61%

0.80%

0.85%

1.13%

1.47%

1.82%

2.25%

2.46%

2.88%

3.25%

3.97%

6.06%

12.51%

-6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00%

Lead

Crude Oil

Cardamom

Nickel

Wheat

Castor Seed

Cotton

RM Seed

Barley

Zinc

Copper

Gold

Jeera

Soy Oil

Silver

Guar Seed

Guar Gum

Mentha Oil

Aluminum

Soybean

CPO

Turmeric

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Dhaniya

Natural Gas


USD/INR

USDINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 71.05 and low of 70.68. The RSI is at 53.75. Moving average of 50 is at 70.13. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 70.60 TP 71.50-71.70 SL 70.00

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 79.32 and low of 78.41. The RSI is trading at 52.97. Moving average of 50 is at 79.00. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 78.70 TP 80.00 SL 78.20.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 92.00 and low of 90.73. The RSI is trading at 61.68. Moving average of 50 is at 89.15. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 91.00 TP 92.00 SL 90.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 65.70 and low of 64.83. The RSI is at 53.35. Moving average of 50 is at 64.38. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 65.30 TP 66.50 SL 64.70.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR closed for the week at 70.81 after hitting weekly high of 71.06 and low of 70.68. Sensex was up 35 at 40165 and the Nifty ended up 13 points at 11890.60. Market is positive with festive season seeing improvement in demand and corporate tax rate cut providing the much-needed earnings boost. Manufacturing activity in the country continued to weaken in October, with factory orders and production rising at the weakest rates in two years. India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a two-year low of 50.6 in October from 51.4 in September. Output of core Indian infrastructure industries shrank by 5.2% in September 2019 as seven of eight sectors witnessed negative growth. India’s fiscal deficit reached nearly 93% of the budget estimate at Rs. 6.52 lakh crore at the end of September. On the global front, Dollar traded near a three-week low against the Yen. US employment report later today is expected to show a slowdown in job creation. Dollar fell against the Euro and the Pound after a report that Chinese officials have doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term solution to the US-Sino trade war. Chinese October data showed the strongest improvement in operating conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers since February 2017. Profits at Chinese industrial companies fell for the second straight month in September as producer prices continued their slide. Dollar fell against major currencies after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year. Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75%. Sterling gained after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval to hold a general election in December. He will now have general election on December 12 after winning crucial votes in the House of Commons. MPs agreed to hold a general election on December 12, voting in favor of Boris Johnson’s bill by a margin of 438 to 20. Brexit on hold until the end of January. UK manufacturing constrained by ongoing political and economic uncertainties in October. PMI rose to 49.6 in October, up for the second successive month but remaining below the neutral 50.0 mark separating expansion from contraction. Japan’s industrial output rebounded in September to 1.4% to log its fastest gain in four months. Factory activity in China shrank for the sixth straight month in October. USD/INR to find support at 70.60 and resistance at 71.05 in the near term.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• Manufacturing activity in the country continued to weaken in October, with factory orders and production rising at the weakest rates in two years.

• India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a two-year low of 50.6 in October from 51.4 in September.

• Output of core Indian infrastructure industries shrank by 5.2% in September 2019 as seven of eight sectors witnessed negative growth.

• India’s fiscal deficit reached nearly 93% of the budget estimate at Rs. 6.52 lakh crore at the end of September.

• Dollar fell against the Euro and the Pound after a report that Chinese officials have doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term solution to the US-Sino trade war.

• Profits at Chinese industrial companies fell for the second straight month in September as producer prices continued their slide.

• Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75%.

• Sterling gained after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval to hold a general election in December.

• UK manufacturing constrained by ongoing political and economic uncertainties in October.

• Japan’s industrial output rebounded in September to 1.4% to log its fastest gain in four months.

• Factory activity in China shrank for the sixth straight month in October.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 70.06 71.06 70.68 70.81

EURINR 78.55 79.33 78.41 78.98

GBPINR 91.01 92.12 90.72 91.73

JPYINR 64.95 65.84 64.88 65.54


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit

4 Nov 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Mfg Final PMI Oct 45.7 45.7 Index (diffusion)

4 Nov 2019 15:00 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Cons PMI Oct 44.0 43.3 Index (diffusion)

4 Nov 2019 15:00 Euro Zone Sentix Index Nov -13.8 -16.8 Index (diffusion)

4 Nov 2019 20:15 United States ISM-New York Index Oct 875.4 Index

4 Nov 2019 20:15 United States ISM NY Biz Conditions Oct 42.8 Index

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Employment Trends Oct 111.0 Index

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Durables Ex-Def, R MM Sep -1.2% Percent

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Durable Goods, R MM Sep -1.1% Percent

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Factory Orders MM Sep -0.3% -0.1% Percent

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Sep -0.3% Percent

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Sep -0.5% Percent

4 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Factory Ex-Transp MM Sep 0.0% Percent

5 Nov 2019 5:31 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales YY Oct -1.70% Percent

5 Nov 2019 7:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Services PMI Oct 51.3 Index (diffusion)

5 Nov 2019 15:00 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Oct 49.6 49.5 Index (diffusion)

5 Nov 2019 15:00 United Kingdom Reserve Assets Total Oct 162,875.90M USD

5 Nov 2019 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices MM Sep 0.1% -0.5% Percent

5 Nov 2019 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices YY Sep -1.2% -0.8% Percent

5 Nov 2019 19:00 United States International Trade $ Sep -55.5B -54.9B USD

5 Nov 2019 19:25 United States Redbook MM 2 Nov, w/e 0.0% Percent

5 Nov 2019 19:25 United States Redbook YY 2 Nov, w/e 4.5% Percent

5 Nov 2019 20:15 United States Markit Comp Final PMI Oct 51.2 Index (diffusion)

5 Nov 2019 20:15 United States Markit Svcs PMI Final Oct 51.0 Index (diffusion)

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 53.2 52.6 Index

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Oct 55.0 55.2 Index

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Oct 50.4 Index

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Oct 53.7 Index

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Oct 60.0 Index

5 Nov 2019 20:30 United States JOLTS Job Openings Sep 7.051M Person

6 Nov 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Serv Final PMI Oct 51.8 51.8 Index (diffusion)

6 Nov 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Comp Final PMI Oct 50.2 50.2 Index (diffusion)

6 Nov 2019 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales MM Sep 0.1% 0.3% Percent

6 Nov 2019 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales YY Sep 2.5% 2.1% Percent

6 Nov 2019 16:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Rate Oct 4.29% Percent

6 Nov 2019 17:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 1 Nov, w/e 0.6% Percent

6 Nov 2019 17:30 United States Mortgage Market Index 1 Nov, w/e 519.2 Index

6 Nov 2019 17:30 United States MBA Purchase Index 1 Nov, w/e 247.2 Index

6 Nov 2019 17:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index 1 Nov, w/e 2,066.0 Index

6 Nov 2019 17:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 1 Nov, w/e 4.05% Percent

CURRENCY


6 Nov 2019 19:00 United States Labor Costs Prelim Q3 2.7% 2.6% Percent

6 Nov 2019 19:00 United States Productivity Prelim Q3 1.0% 2.3% Percent

7 Nov 2019 13:30 China (Mainland) FX Reserves (Monthly) Oct 3.100T 3.092T USD

7 Nov 2019 14:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices MM Oct -0.4% Percent

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Hike Nov 0 0 Number of

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Unchanged Nov 9 9 Number of

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Cut Nov 0 0 Number of

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom BOE Bank Rate Nov 0.75% 0.75% Percent

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Gilts Nov 435B 435B GBP

7 Nov 2019 17:30 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Corp Nov 10B 10B GBP

7 Nov 2019 19:00 United States Initial Jobless Claims 28 Oct, w/e 218k Person

7 Nov 2019 19:00 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 28 Oct, w/e 214.75k Person

7 Nov 2019 19:00 United States Continued Jobless Claims 21 Oct, w/e 1.690M Person

8 Nov 2019 1:30 United States Consumer Credit Sep 16.00B 17.90B USD

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States U Mich Sentiment Prelim Nov 94.7 95.5 Index

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States U Mich Conditions Prelim Nov 113.2 Index

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States U Mich Expectations Prelim Nov 84.2 Index

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Nov 2.5% Percent

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Nov 2.3% Percent

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Sep -0.3% Percent

8 Nov 2019 20:30 United States Wholesale Sales MM Sep 0.0% Percent

8 Nov 2019 18:00 China (Mainland) Exports YY Oct -3.5% -3.2% Percent

8 Nov 2019 18:00 China (Mainland) Imports YY Oct -8.9% -8.5% Percent

8 Nov 2019 18:00 China (Mainland) Trade Balance USD Oct 41.20B 39.65B USD

CURRENCY


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