review we have selective perception – context dependent – influenced by expectations we try to...
TRANSCRIPT
Review
• We have Selective Perception– Context Dependent– Influenced by expectations
• We try to reconcile disparate beliefs and actions
• Our memory isn’t so good
Selective Perception
• There are limits to how much we can perceive at once.
Selective Perception
• We tend to see what we expect to see.
Half the class close your eyes.
Selective Perception
• We tend to see what we expect to see.
There is a 50% chance that Chris is lying to you.
Selective Perception
• We tend to see what we expect to see.
Half the class close your eyes.
Story Time
Selective Perception
• Survey Research! – 1 (not at all) - 10(totally cool)
• How much did you like Chris’s story?
• How accurate would you guess Chris’s story was?
Context Dependence
• We don’t perceive things independently. Context matters:– Distracting or complementary stimuli
Cognitive Dissonance
How we resolve Cognitive Dissonance
• Reduce importance
• Add more consonant beliefs
• Change beliefs
Memory
• Bias distorts• Diminishes
• If memory diminishes, what are we using to make ad hoc decisions?– What do you think about Michael Jordan?
How Questions How Questions Affect AnswersAffect Answers
Section IISection II
Order EffectsOrder Effects
First Response influences Second First Response influences Second ResponseResponseStatistics vs. This ClassStatistics vs. This Class
Order of Alternatives MattersOrder of Alternatives MattersFewer, the same number, or more?Fewer, the same number, or more?
Pseudo-opinionsPseudo-opinions
How do you feel about the Cookies Act How do you feel about the Cookies Act now that it has been passed in the now that it has been passed in the United States Senate?United States Senate?
Filtering out Pseudo-opinionsFiltering out Pseudo-opinions
Unfiltered:Unfiltered:Oreos are better than Chips Ahoy. Oreos are better than Chips Ahoy. Do you agree or disagree?Do you agree or disagree?
Oreos are better than Chips Ahoy. Do Oreos are better than Chips Ahoy. Do you have an opinion about that? If you have an opinion about that? If so, do you agree or disagree?so, do you agree or disagree?
Inconsistency: Inconsistency: do Attitudes reflect Behavior?do Attitudes reflect Behavior?
““Measuring an attitude, Measuring an attitude, opinion or preference is not opinion or preference is not so simple as asking a so simple as asking a question.” question.”
-Scott Plous-Scott Plous
Question Wording and Question Wording and FramingFraming
Forced ChoiceForced ChoiceSmall extreme, large extreme, or Small extreme, large extreme, or middle?middle?
Frames of ReferenceFrames of ReferenceHow Tall?How Tall?
vs.vs.How Short?How Short?
Social DesirabilitySocial Desirability
If program A is adopted, 200 people will be If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.saved.
If program B is adopted, p = 1/3 all will be If program B is adopted, p = 1/3 all will be saved, p = 2/3 no one is saved.saved, p = 2/3 no one is saved.
VS.VS.
If program C is adopted, 400 people will If program C is adopted, 400 people will die.die.
If program D is adopted, p = 1/3 nobody If program D is adopted, p = 1/3 nobody will die, p = 2/3 all will die.will die, p = 2/3 all will die.
Psychological AccountingPsychological Accounting
Regis: You’ve now won $125,000. Regis: You’ve now won $125,000. Would you like to take the money, or Would you like to take the money, or try for $500,000? Remember, if you try for $500,000? Remember, if you get the next question wrong, you will get the next question wrong, you will go back to $32,000.go back to $32,000.
Howie: Deal or no deal?Howie: Deal or no deal?
Models of Decision Models of Decision MakingMaking
Section IIISection III
Normative Models of Normative Models of Decision MakingDecision Making
Expected Utility TheoryExpected Utility Theory
Nicholas Bernoulli’s Nicholas Bernoulli’s Six Principles of Rational Decision Makers:Six Principles of Rational Decision Makers:
1. Ordering Alternatives1. Ordering Alternatives 2. Dominance2. Dominance
3. Cancellation3. Cancellation 4. Transitivity4. Transitivity
5. Continuity5. Continuity6. Invariance 6. Invariance
Paradoxes in RationalityParadoxes in Rationality
The Allais Paradox for The Allais Paradox for CancellationCancellation
Ellsberg’s Paradox for Ellsberg’s Paradox for CancellationCancellation
Tversky’s study of Tversky’s study of Intransivity Intransivity
Lichtenstein and Slovic’s Preference Lichtenstein and Slovic’s Preference ReversalReversal
Are violations of the theory truly Are violations of the theory truly irrational?irrational?
Should we base our experiments on Should we base our experiments on the behavior of rational actors?the behavior of rational actors?
OROR
Should we first attempt to create Should we first attempt to create behavioral models from observation?behavioral models from observation?
Descriptive Models of Descriptive Models of Decision MakingDecision Making
Satisficing Satisficing
People don’t optimize whenPeople don’t optimize when
they make decisions. they make decisions.
They choose paths that ------They choose paths that ------
satisfy their most importantsatisfy their most important
needs.needs.
Prospect TheoryProspect Theory
Value rather than “utility”Value rather than “utility”
*Utility = Net Wealth*Utility = Net Wealth
*Value = Gains and Losses*Value = Gains and Losses
Preferences will depend upon how a Preferences will depend upon how a problem is framed.problem is framed.
The Certainty and The Certainty and Pseudocertainty EffectsPseudocertainty Effects
People pay more to remove 1 of 1 People pay more to remove 1 of 1 bullets than to remove 1 of 4 bullets. bullets than to remove 1 of 4 bullets.
Buy three get one free = Buy three get one free =
25% price reduction25% price reduction
Regret TheoryRegret Theory
Based on Counterfactual ReasoningBased on Counterfactual Reasoning1. People feel rejoicing and regret1. People feel rejoicing and regret2. People anticipate these sensations 2. People anticipate these sensations
when they make decisionswhen they make decisionsOf course, when the decision may result Of course, when the decision may result
in death, regret theory does not apply. in death, regret theory does not apply.
Multi-attribute ChoiceMulti-attribute Choice
Compensatory StrategiesCompensatory Strategies
Linear ModelingLinear ModelingWeigh the dimensions by importanceWeigh the dimensions by importance
Additive DifferenceAdditive DifferenceWeigh the differences among alternativesWeigh the differences among alternatives
Ideal Point ModelingIdeal Point ModelingWhat does the ideal look like?What does the ideal look like?
Noncompensatory StrategiesNoncompensatory Strategies
Conjunctive RuleConjunctive RuleEliminate alternatives Eliminate alternatives
Disjunctive RuleDisjunctive RuleAlternatives evaluated on best attributesAlternatives evaluated on best attributes
Lexicographic StrategyLexicographic StrategyChoose a dimension to evaluateChoose a dimension to evaluate
Elimination-by-aspectsElimination-by-aspectsChoose a dimension to evaluate based on Choose a dimension to evaluate based on
the probability of its importancethe probability of its importance
Expected Utility Theory vs. Expected Utility Theory vs. Prospect TheoryProspect Theory
Why must we consider both theories?Why must we consider both theories?
What is more important, making What is more important, making people into rational decision makers, people into rational decision makers,
OROR
Allowing for the irrationality of their Allowing for the irrationality of their decisions?decisions?
Heuristics and Biases
Chp. 10 – chp. 13
Overview Representativeness Heuristic
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Probability and RiskProbability and Risk
Representativeness Heuristic People often use “Heuristic” or general rules
of thumb, to arrive at their judgment.
Tversky and Kahneman—“People often judge probabilities …by the degree to which A resembles B”.
The Law of Small Numbers “...a belief that random samples of a population will
resemble each other and the population more closely than statistical sampling theory would predict.”
Examples: Gambler’s fallacy –
“the belief that a successful outcome is due after a run of bad luck…”
Remember that chance is not self-correcting!
Examples: The Hot Hand –
“…a streak shooter in basketball or an athlete on a roll…”
Neglecting Base Rates
Examples: Among 100 persons, there are 30 engineers, and the other 70 are lawyers.
When people are provided with the descriptive information, they often ignore the base rates
Q: John is a 30-year old man. He is married with no children. A man of high ability and high motivation, he promises to be quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his colleagues. What is the probability that John is an engineer?
Subjects give 50%
Whenever possible, pay attention to base rates, do not be trapped with the detail description
Overview Representativeness Heuristic
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Probability and RiskProbability and Risk
Availability HeuristicTversky and Kahneman—
“…Assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.”
Example: Which is a more likely cause of death in the U.S. last year— stomach cancer or car accident?
The Author notes that—
“Some events are more available than others not because they tend to occur frequently or with high probability, but because they are inherently easier to think about, because they have taken place recently.”
Do not trust your immediate intuitions for judgments of frequency or probability
Vividness Decision makers are affected more strongly by
vivid information than by pallid, abstract, or statistical information.
Because vivid information is more “available” and easier to recall than pallid information, it often has a disproportionate influence on judgments.
Imaginative Study
An imaginative event will increase its availability and make it appear more likely
Who will win?
Overview Representativeness Heuristic
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Probability and RiskProbability and Risk
Bias of Probability and risk Positive outcomes are viewed as more
probable than negative outcomes
What was your dream when you were a child?
Bias of Probability and risk
Perceptions of risk are highly subjective.
Importance in research (From 2003)
Use heuristics and probability measures carefully
Apply corrective measures to your data to “undo” the effect of biases
Don’t let your “desire” for accuracy sway you towards inaccurate data
The Psychology The Psychology of Judgment and of Judgment and Decision MakingDecision Making
Chapter 13 to Chapter 16Chapter 13 to Chapter 16
By SeanBy Sean
US$ 119,900US$ 129,900
US$ 139,900US$ 149,900
What do you think?
Real Estate AgentsReal Estate Agents
Apparent Apparent Listing Listing Price $Price $
MEAN ESTIMATES GIVEN BY REAL ESTATE MEAN ESTIMATES GIVEN BY REAL ESTATE AGENTSAGENTS
AppraisedAppraised
Value, $Value, $Recommended Recommended Selling Price $Selling Price $
Reasonable Reasonable Purchase Price, Purchase Price,
$$
LowestLowest
Offer, $Offer, $
119,900119,900 114,204114,204 117,745117,745 111,454111,454 111,136111,136
129,900129,900 126,772126,772 127,836127,836 123,209123,209 122,254122,254
139,900139,900 125,041125,041 128,530128,530 124,653124,653 121,884121,884
149,900149,900 128,754128,754 130,981130,981 127,318127,318 123,818123,818
This table is adapted from a study by Gregory Northcraft and Margaret Neale (1987)
Anchoring and Anchoring and AdjustmentAdjustment
How do you figure out the answer to How do you figure out the answer to an unthinkable problem?an unthinkable problem? Guess, based on your knowledge, or Guess, based on your knowledge, or
““expectationexpectation”” What about some hint?What about some hint?
Good to help you figure out the answerGood to help you figure out the answer What is the result? Is it correct?What is the result? Is it correct?
To make an adjustment in the hintTo make an adjustment in the hint Totally WRONG!Totally WRONG!
Anchoring and Anchoring and AdjustmentAdjustment
What is the procedure of your thinking?What is the procedure of your thinking? ExpectationsExpectations When given a hint, you will deeply When given a hint, you will deeply
influenced by the hint, and adjust your influenced by the hint, and adjust your answer around the hint, which is called answer around the hint, which is called ““Anchoring EffectAnchoring Effect””
Get a wrong answer, and you may make Get a wrong answer, and you may make wrong decision based on the wrong answerwrong decision based on the wrong answer
People often cannot realize anchoring People often cannot realize anchoring effectseffects
Anchoring and Anchoring and AdjustmentAdjustment
How anchoring effects influence peopleHow anchoring effects influence people’’s s judgment?judgment? Adjust insufficiently from the anchor valuesAdjust insufficiently from the anchor values
The characteristics of anchoring effectsThe characteristics of anchoring effects PervasivePervasive Extremely robustExtremely robust
How to overcome it?How to overcome it? Be aware of extremely high / low anchor Be aware of extremely high / low anchor
valuesvalues Consider multiple anchor values before Consider multiple anchor values before
making a final estimatemaking a final estimate
Coincide, Luck & Coincide, Luck & SuperstitionSuperstition
You won 10 thousand You won 10 thousand dollars with 0.001% chancedollars with 0.001% chance
You won 10 thousand You won 10 thousand dollars again with 0.001% dollars again with 0.001% chancechance
God is helping you?God is helping you? You have luckYou have luck But will you won 10 But will you won 10
thousand dollars in the next thousand dollars in the next time? What is the chance?time? What is the chance?
The Perception of The Perception of RandomnessRandomness
CoincidenceCoincidence Some random event happens with little chanceSome random event happens with little chance An act of God?An act of God?
LuckLuck Some random events generate some results Some random events generate some results
expected by you till nowexpected by you till now SuperstitionSuperstition
Try to claim that you will continue to have luck Try to claim that you will continue to have luck in the future on some random eventsin the future on some random events
The Perception of The Perception of RandomnessRandomness
Consider it with patterns? Or consider it Consider it with patterns? Or consider it as randomized?as randomized?
Repetition are often considered as a Repetition are often considered as a meaningful sequencemeaningful sequence
Randomness is not with as many changes Randomness is not with as many changes as expectedas expected
How to avoid superstition?How to avoid superstition? Similar outcomes that happened often do not Similar outcomes that happened often do not
indicate patternindicate pattern Resist the temptation to view short runs of the Resist the temptation to view short runs of the
same outcome as meaningfulsame outcome as meaningful
The Perception of The Perception of RandomnessRandomness
People have difficulties in behaving People have difficulties in behaving randomly, because people have randomly, because people have difficulties in judging randomnessdifficulties in judging randomness
People can be trained to behave People can be trained to behave randomly in a period of time by randomly in a period of time by feedback on a bunch of statistical feedback on a bunch of statistical measures of randomnessmeasures of randomness
Correlation & CausationCorrelation & Causation
Correlation, Causation, and Correlation, Causation, and ControlControl
One of the most common judgments One of the most common judgments people make is the judgment of people make is the judgment of correlation between different correlation between different variablesvariables
How do you judge correlations?How do you judge correlations? By what happened?By what happened? By what you think?By what you think? By what didnBy what didn’’t happened?t happened? Or something else?Or something else?
Correlation, Causation, and Correlation, Causation, and ControlControl
Incorrect judgment of correlationIncorrect judgment of correlation Wrong method, focus on the part of positive Wrong method, focus on the part of positive
cases (Symptom-Disease)cases (Symptom-Disease) Data incompleteness (God-Prayer)Data incompleteness (God-Prayer)
Illusory correlation (reason not clearly)Illusory correlation (reason not clearly) Based on expectations (Representativeness Based on expectations (Representativeness
theory)theory) Based on salient facts (Availability theory)Based on salient facts (Availability theory)
Invisible correlationInvisible correlation With only observations, even strong correlation With only observations, even strong correlation
can not be detected (Smoking-Lung Cancer)can not be detected (Smoking-Lung Cancer) Result in underestimate the correlation (0.80 Result in underestimate the correlation (0.80 ––
50%, 1.00 50%, 1.00 –– <85%) <85%)
Correlation, Causation, and Correlation, Causation, and ControlControl
How to estimate correlation?How to estimate correlation? Decide variables that may be relatedDecide variables that may be related Sample the cases from the population Sample the cases from the population
under consideration such as under consideration such as randomnessrandomness
Interpret and classify your observationsInterpret and classify your observations Integrate the estimates in a meaningful Integrate the estimates in a meaningful
way and start statistical analysisway and start statistical analysis Use these data to make a judgment Use these data to make a judgment
about correlationabout correlation
Correlation, Causation, and Correlation, Causation, and ControlControl
Correlation does not necessarily Correlation does not necessarily means causation (Causation + means causation (Causation + Correlation = Causalation)Correlation = Causalation)
Causation does not necessarily Causation does not necessarily means a STRONG correlationmeans a STRONG correlation
People often judge correlation People often judge correlation simply with the help of causation simply with the help of causation (accurate correlation, a few cases, or (accurate correlation, a few cases, or knowledge)knowledge)
Correlation, Causation, and Correlation, Causation, and ControlControl
Illusion controlIllusion control People believe they can have more People believe they can have more
control than they actually do in control than they actually do in some certain situations, such as some certain situations, such as cues, etc.cues, etc.
People believe they can have more People believe they can have more control with things they are control with things they are familiarfamiliar
Attribution TheoryAttribution Theory
How people explain others behavior? How people explain others behavior? What is the attribution? (Correlations What is the attribution? (Correlations between behavior and explanation)between behavior and explanation) Person, Stimulus (Entity), Circumstance Person, Stimulus (Entity), Circumstance
(Time)(Time) These three attributions based on These three attributions based on
three sources of informationthree sources of information Consensus, Distinctiveness, ConsistencyConsensus, Distinctiveness, Consistency
People tend to ignore the consensus People tend to ignore the consensus information that is abstract in their information that is abstract in their judgment of attributionsjudgment of attributions
Attribution TheoryAttribution Theory
Predicted Predicted AttributiAttributi
onon
PATTERN OF INFORMATIONPATTERN OF INFORMATION
ConsensusConsensus DistinctiveneDistinctivenessss
ConsistencyConsistency
PersonPerson LowLow LowLow HighHigh
StimulusStimulus
(Entity)(Entity)HighHigh HighHigh HighHigh
CircumstaCircumstancence
(Time)(Time)
LowLow HighHigh LowLow
This table is adapted from an article by Bruce Orvis, John Cunningham, and Harold Kelley (1975).
Attribution TheoryAttribution Theory Disposition vs. Situation (Fundamental Disposition vs. Situation (Fundamental
attribution error)attribution error) People often judge attributions as disposition People often judge attributions as disposition
when they only see the behavior or reaction of when they only see the behavior or reaction of subject rather than situation of the subject subject rather than situation of the subject faces (trading places)faces (trading places)
Salient information has more impact in Salient information has more impact in peoplepeople’’s judgment of attributionss judgment of attributions
ExamplesExamples People tends to attribute to situations when People tends to attribute to situations when
explaining their own behaviorexplaining their own behavior People tends to attribute to dispositions when People tends to attribute to dispositions when
explaining others behaviorexplaining others behavior
Attribution TheoryAttribution Theory
Other attributional biases / errorsOther attributional biases / errors Egocentric bias: people tend to accept Egocentric bias: people tend to accept
more responsibility for joint outcomes more responsibility for joint outcomes than other contributors attribute to themthan other contributors attribute to them
Positivity effect: people tend to attribute Positivity effect: people tend to attribute positive behaviors to dispositional positive behaviors to dispositional factors and negative behaviors to factors and negative behaviors to situational factors (The bedrock situational factors (The bedrock assumption of racist doctrine)assumption of racist doctrine)
Tendency to ascribe less variability to Tendency to ascribe less variability to others than to one selfothers than to one self
Section VSection V
The Social Side of Judgment The Social Side of Judgment and Decision Makingand Decision Making
Social InfluencesSocial Influences• Social Facilitation
• Social Loafing
• Bystander Intervention
• Social Comparison Theory
• Social Analgesia
• Conformity
• Minority Influence
• Groupthink
Social FacilitationSocial Facilitation
• Robert Zajonc, 1965• The performance of simple, well learned
responses is usually enhanced by the presence of onlookers, but the performance of complex unmastered skills tends to be impaired by the presence of others
• College Pool Hall Study – Michaels..et al, 1982
Social LoafingSocial Loafing
• Latane, Williams, Harking, 1979
• People do not work as hard in groups as they work alone
• Pulling Rope Study – Walther Moede, 1927
Bystander InterventionBystander Intervention
• Latane, Darley, 1969, 1970
• The relationship between intervention and diffusion of responsibility
• White Smoke in Waiting Room Study – Latane, Darley, 1969, 1970
Social Comparison TheorySocial Comparison Theory
• Leon Festinger, 1954
• People have the need to evaluate their ability levels and appropriateness of their opinions, and that in the absence of objective nonsocial standards, they compare themselves with others
• Envelope, Lost Wallet, and Letter Experiment – Hornstein, Fisch, and Holmes, 1968
Social AnalgesiaSocial Analgesia
• Craig, Prkachin, 1978
• Social Comparisons with someone who has a high pain tolerance can actually lead people to experience less pain than they would otherwise
• Electric Shocks to the Arm Experiment – Craig, Prkachin, 1978
ConformityConformity
• Solomon Asch, 1951-1956
• Under certain conditions people succumb to the pressure to conform, even when they know it is incorrect
• Standard Line Experiment – Asch, 1951-1956
Minority InfluenceMinority Influence
• Serge Moscovici, 1969
• Cases where a minority is able to exert a significant degree of influence in the majority, if the minority is consistent
• Moscovici, 1969
Group ThinkGroup Think
• Irving Janis, 1972• When groups are cohesive and relatively
insulated from the influence of outsiders, group loyalty and pressures to conform can lead to groupthink
• Defined as a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment that results from in-group pressures
Group Judgments and DecisionsGroup Judgments and Decisions
• Group Errors and Biases
• Group Polarization
• Group Decision Making
Group Errors and BiasesGroup Errors and Biases
• Allison and Messick, 1985
• Attributional parallel to the Fundamental Attribution Error and Self-Serving biases for Groups.
• Defined as the unwarranted dispositional attributions about a group
• Intercollegiate Athlete Study – Taylor, Doria, 1981
Group PolarizationGroup Polarization
• Moscovici and Zallavoni, 1969
• The tendency for group discussion to amplify the inclinations of group members, first documented by James Stoner, 1961
• Risky Shifts Experiment – Kogan and Wallach, 1964
Group Decision MakingGroup Decision Making
• Permissive Leadership vs Inactive Leader– Horse-Sense Experiment – Mailer, Allen 1952
• Group Accuracy– Group Accuracy depends on a variety of
factors, including nature, difficulty of tasks, competence, and member interaction – Hastie, 1986
• Group Decision Techniques– Sniezek (1989) compared 5 decision
techniques: consensus, dialectic, dictator, delphi, and collective
Discussion Questions??Discussion Questions??
• Why do these theories matter in this day and age?
• How can they affect our research and experiment design?
Section VISection VI
Common TrapsCommon Traps
OverconfidenceOverconfidence
• The Case of Joseph Kidd – Oscamp 1965• Greatest when accuracy is near chance
levels• Decreases as accuracy increases from 50
to 80 percent– Under confident when accuracy exceeds 80%
• Discrepancies between accuracy and confidence are not related to a decision makers intelligence
OverconfidenceOverconfidence
• Extreme Confidence– Fischhoff, Slovic, Lichtenstein - 1977
• Calibration– The degree to which a decision makers confidence
matches his/her accuracy
• Correlation of Confidence and Accuracy??– Studies have found little or no correlation between
confidence and accuracy (Paese, 1991)
• How Can Overconfidence Be Reduced?– Feedback and opposing reasons/alternative outcomes
Self-Fulfilling PropheciesSelf-Fulfilling Prophecies
• Termed coined by Robert Merton - 1948
• Self-Perpetuating Social Beliefs– Confirmation Biases (Snyder, Cantor - 1979)
• The Pygmalion Effect – Grade School Student-Teacher Experiment
(Rosenthal and Jacobson – 1968)
• Self-Fulfilling Racial Stereotypes– Word, Zanna, Cooper racial discrimination
experiment - 1974
Behavioral TrapsBehavioral Traps
• Time Delay Traps– Momentary gratification clashes with long-
term consequences
• Ignorance Traps– The negative consequences of behavior are
not understood or foreseen
• Investment Traps– Occur when prior expenditures of time,
money, or other resources lead people to make choices the would not otherwise make
Behavioral TrapsBehavioral Traps
• Deterioration Traps– Occur when initially rewarding courses of
action gradually become less reinforcing and/or more punishing
• Collective Traps– In the pursuit of individual self-interests result
in adverse consequences for the collective– Prisoner’s Dilemma
Discussion Questions??Discussion Questions??
• How much would you pay for a dollar?
• When does miscalibration become devastating?
• Can confirmation biases be eliminated? Mitigated or reduced?
• Are Behavioral Traps inherently Good or Bad?