FIELD TRIP REPORTby Cabot Martinon avisit to Central Labrador byDr. Stig Bernanderto assessthe Quick Clay landslide riskat the North Spur portion ofthe Muskrat Falls hydroreservoir containmentsystem.October 26, 27 and 28 , 2014December 2,2014INTRODUCTION TO OCTOBER 2014 NORTH SPUR FIELD TRIP REPORTNalcor, a corporation owned by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador,is building a massive hydro dam on the Lower Churchill River in central Labrador20 miles upriver from the riverside Town of Happy Valley-Goose Bay and thehamlet of Mud Lake.The project proposes to use a half mile long landslide prone natural feature calledthe North Spur as major part of the reservoir containment system.On December 1, 2014 , Ed Martin CEO of Nalcor is quoted as saying he was 100%comfortable with the North Spur.This does not seem wise.In late October,2014, I had the privilege of accompanying Dr. Stig Bernander, arenowned engineer and landslide expert from Sweden, on a 3 day Field Trip to theNorth Spur prior to his public lecture on North Spur landslides in St. Johns .This power point documents that trip. Slides 7 and 8 set out Dr. Bernanders mainconclusions.Dr. Bernanders message, bolstered by his Field Trip observations, was oneof caution, and of the need to better assess the risk in the case of a NorthSpur landslide and reservoir breach particularlywith regard to the dangerfor Downhill Progressive landslides - his speciality.Nalcor has stated firmly that there is no evidence of Downhill Progressivelandslides in the Lower Churchill Valley and thus at the North Spur.As this power point presentation shows, Dr. Bernander found a lot ofevidence of Downhill Progressive landslides in the Lower Churchill Valley.This must be resolved.Nalcor has not made public a North Spur dam break analysis or itsDownhill Progressive landslide data and analysis but should do so as soonas possible as this isa matter of Public Safety.Cabot Martin December 2,2014LOCATION MAP: LABRADOR & MUSKRAT FALLS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICALABRADORNEWFOUNDLANDBOSTONQUEBECMUSKRATFALLSGull IslandMuskrat FallsHappy Valley-Goose BayLOCATION MAP CENTRAL LABRADOR:HAPPY VALLEY GOOSE BAY & MUD LAKEIN RELATION TO MUSKRAT FALLSwhich is 20 miles upriverMud LakeMuskrat Falls Quick ClayField Trip Report October 26, 27 and 28 2014Objectives:(1) To allow landslide expert Dr. Stig Bernander to assess QuickClay conditions at the North Spur (Muskrat Falls) and adjacentupslope areas prior to his public lecture in St .Johns.Dr. Bernander is a world recognized expert in the field ofDownhill Progressive Landslides a type of landslideresponsible for the largest type of Quick Clay landslides.(2) To test the validity of Nalcors position that : There is no evidence of downhill progressive failure landslidein the Churchill river valley. ( the underlined and bolded no is Nalcors emphasis )Field Trip Results(as per Dr. Bernander):(1) using a combination of truck/foot on Day 1, boat on Day 2and helicopter on Day 3 , all key pre-determined areas ofinterest were successfully inspected.(2) Dr. Bernander observed many indications of DownhillProgressive Landslides in the Lower Churchill Valley includingthe 2010 Edwards Island landslide.3) Dr Bernander also concluded that the initial failure forDownhill Progressive slides may start far upslope ( eg in thecase of the North Spur as far up as the TLH).Dr Bernander noted that while it is true that in geologicalterms the river valley is being widened by riverside slidesoften triggered by toe erosion, this does not imply that thedirect cause of large slides in the Lower Churchill Valley is toeerosion.This is because the biggest slides result directly fromchanges(sometimes relatively small) in the very big downhill actingforces (load) that result from the total loading of upslopesediments.Downhill progressive landslides are particularly troublesomeas they can not be stabilized by reinforcing the Toe of theslope on the north spur.The importance of Progressive Failure type landslideswas highlightedin a request for information senttoNalcor in November 2013 by MWH Americas, Inc( the Independent Engineer) which put theProgressive Failure landslide issue first on their list ofoutstanding technical issues.One type of progressive failure is the DownhillProgressive type landslide. The initial failure for theseslides may start far upslope ( eg in the case of the North Spurup at far as the TLH).In response to MHW Americas specific written request ofNovember,2014 , Nalcor told the Independent Engineerin July 2014 that:There is no evidence of downhill progressive failure landsidealong the Churchill river valley.The Independent Engineers (MWH Americas)subsequentstatements on the North Spur landslide problem were no doubtcolored by this incorrectinformation.ConclusionThere is, according to Dr. Bernander, substantial evidence of DownhillProgressive Landslide activity in the Lower Churchill Valley.So it is prudent to treat Downhill Progressive Landslides as a significant riskto the Muskrat Falls Project and thus to the people living downstream in the caseof a landslide /dam break at the North Spur.Nalcor was wrong in stating that there is NO evidence of Downhill ProgressiveLandslides in the Lower Churchill Valley and has incorrectly informed theIndependent Engineer as to a major project risk as a result.This is a matter of safety and must be corrected.Nalcor has also claimed that they have fully examined the danger forDownhill Progressive landslides at the North Spur and that it does not exist.In view of the grave safety implications of this issue, Nalcor should make publicall data and analysis in its possession relating to Nalcors Downhill ProgressiveLandslide analysis of stability issues on the North Spur at the earliest possible date.THAT IS THE BASIC MESSAGE OF THIS POWERPOINT.MOST OF THESLIDES ARE PHOTOS THAT FOLLOW DOCUMENT DR BERNANDERsFIELD TRIP WHICH SUPPORT THAT ANALYSIS. ADDITIONAL MATERIAL HAS BEENADDED TO PROVIDE CONTEXT.THE NORTH SPUR IS, HE SAID, THE MOST LANDSLIDE SCAR INFESTED TERRAINHE HAS EVER SEEN.SOME OF THE PHOTOS ARE OF POOR QUALITY BUT HAVE BEEN INCLUDEDFOR THE BENEFIT OF PROFESSIONAL RESEARCHERS; GIVEN ACCESS ISSUESMANY ARE THE ONLY ONES PUBLICALLY AVAILABLE.AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT DR. BERNANDER WILL BE WRITING FURTHER ONTHIS MATTER.MORE North Spur information can be found at www.muskratinfo.ca .Dr. Bernander s public lecture at the LSPU Hall on October 30,2014 will beposted there.Why Progressive Downhill Quick ClayLandslides are so dangerous The next two slides show the famous 1978 RissaNorway slide and the 2010 Edwards Islandlandslide inthe Lower Churchill Valley upriver from Muskrat Falls The biggest part of both of these two massive slideswere of the Downhill Progressive Landslide type. To see why it is critical to know if we have a DownhillProgressive Landslide risk at the North Spur watch theRissa video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3q-qfNlEP4A1978 Rissa Norway Slide : 4 -5 million cubicmeters Approximately 1.5 km long;Last 1 kmtowards the lower right was of theDownhill Progressive typeand took only 5 minutesAnother example of a Downhill Progressive landslide:Edwards Island Quick Clay Landslide (Feb 2010)25 milesupriver from Muskrat ( 2.2 million cubic meters)In comparison, the older L3 and R3 slides upriver measured10 times more at 22 million cubic meters - a volume hard to imagine.Examined by Dr. Bernander in October 2014(this 2010 Photo by Amec)See Slides 80 to 87 for Day 3 helicopter views of this key landslide.The next two slides show the generallayout of the LowerChurchill Valley with Gull Island at the western end andMuskrat Falls at the eastern and the wide river valley bottomthat is to be flooded.The slide after that shows the general size and location of 15Lower Churchill Valley landslides identified by the GeologicalSurvey of Canada in 2012.Note the massive L3 and R3 slides(22 million cubic meters each); Edwards Island is near R6; GSCL7 (circled) is 4.5 miles from the North Spur and was amongstthose examined by Dr. Bernander.This GSC list was not exhaustive especially near Muskrat Falls ;and at least one more major slide has taken place since 2012.Google EarthA broad level river valley extends gently 35 miles downstream from Gull Island toMuskrat Fallsdroppingby only7 m from Gull to Muskrat.Plateau at Elevation 300 mPlateau at Elevation 450 mNarrow steep river gorgeGull IslandMuskrat FallsCentral Lower Churchill Valley looking upriver:very beautiful, sacred to the Innu andprecious to Labradorians generallyGoogle Earth19NR Can 2012 PresentationDAY 1 - The North Spur and Lower Brook areaby car and footThe instability of the North Spur is the biggest riskand engineering challenge facing the Muskrat FallsProject.As seen in the next five slides, the North Spur comprisesabout 50% of the overall reservoir containment system andis comprised of a toxic mix of sand and clay including Quick Clay.There is a real risk of a Downhill Progressive Landslide muchlarger than the whole area of the North Spur ( eg Edwards Island).NORTH SPURUpper Muskrat FallsLower Muskrat FallsTrans Labrador HighwayLower Churchill RiverManitutshuSpirit MountainGoogle Earth Image of Muskrat Falls Site looking NorthIntervening pool 0.5 Km longNorth SpurTrans LabradorHighway (TLH)ProposedPowerhouse (red)& Spillway (black)Manitutshu Spirit MountainOverhead view of North Spur showing key role inMuskrat Falls reservoir containment systemSection of North SpurTo act as a natural dam22Area ofPotentialInstabilityThe Muskrat Falls Projecton October 28,2014Partially completedPowerhouse DomeSpillwayconstructionSpirit MountainCliffs of Clay on the North Spur1978 slideApprox level ofreservoirafter floodingNorth Spur looking South: the Muskrat Falls Reservoir in the filledcondition will rise to within 5 to 10 m of the top of the North Spur24Spirit mountainThis detailed 1979 contour map shows why Dr Bernander says the North Spuris the most landslide scar-infested terrain he has ever seenE21978 LandslideSpirit Mountain70 m deep holescoured by ice ?And/orthe river ?Lower FallsUpper FallsSea LevelThe next two slides show that while a generalized cross-sectionof the North Spur shows an Upper Clay and a Lower Clayoverlain and separated by discrete sand layers ,the reality of quickly thinning and thickening inter-bedded sandand clay is a far trickier matter to analyse.DangerousGlacio-marine clays10-15 m of sand60 m of Glacio- marine clayand sand50 m of Glacio - marine clay150m of Sand & GravelAquiferBEDROCKAt 270 m below top of Spur( - 220 m below sea level)Ground elevation at Top of Spur50 m above sea levelPresent upstream river levelElev 18 m above sea level39 m to 44 m operating reservoirlevel after river dammed~ 21 to 26 m higher than at presentPresent downstream river Level~ 0 m above sea level27SandSSiltyClayThin SandsSiltyClaySiltyClay80 mSplit Spoon Tests at 15 mBlows: 0/0/2/2/P2B Total Depth at 58 mSplit Spoon sinks 18 inchesunder own weightSignificant variation in sand/clay package in the area ofthe P3 A & B Well over short lateral distanceHatch 2009 at slide 46 athttp://www.pub.nf.ca/applications/muskratfalls2011/files/exhibits/Exhibit41.pdfThickerSandSpirit MountainSTOP 1Dr Bernander withJim Learningof the Grand River Keepers onthe north rim of the 1978 slideon the North Spurwith south rim in backgroundDr Bernander on the south rim of the 1978 North Spur slide( north rim in left background) ; note the clay cliffs and numerousslide scars stretching downstream in right backgroundRecent slump feature near the bottom of the North SpurNote north rim of 1978 slide in middle top backgroundDr. Bernander starts his way back up on foot fromthe bottom of the 50 m high North Spur view downriver70m deep riverbedscour hole hereBase of SPIRIT MOUNTAINis at sea levelMuskrat Falls power house constructionsite is to the right around the pointSPIRIT MOUNTAINApproaching a zone ofslumping clay on theNorth SpurDr Bernander and Jim Learning examine a recent slump featurepart way up the North Spur new since July 2014Note north rim of 1978 slide in upper center backgroundLOWERBROOKAfter examining the North Spur in some detail from top to bottom on foot ,Dr Bernander next visitedthe Lower Brook area . In addition to the landslide riskon the North Spur itself, the instability of the whole area 2 and 3 km upslope to theTrans Labrador Highway (TLH) is also of concern.There is evidence of large Downhill Progressive Landslides in this area . For instance,the L7 slide which is clearly visible at the base ofa cliff at a roadside lookout on theTrans-Labrador Highway (Stop 2).Slide L7Stop 2 :RoadsideLookoutNorth SpurStop 1TLHStop 5Stop 4Stop 3The Lower Churchill Valley at the Lower BrookLookout 4.5 miles above Muskrat Falls looking southL7 scarStop 2 - TLH LookoutLower BrookStop 3Stop 4Old BridgeNew Bridgeon TLHField Stops 2, 3 and 4 revealed significant sensitive clay occurencesand landslide activity in the Lower Brook areaSTOP 3 - Slumping Clay in the valley of Lower BrookEldred Davis and Dr Bernander on their wayback up from Stop 3 old TLH on the rightView from Stop 4 looking east on TLH towardsNew Lower Brook bridgeLower Brook bridgeStop 4Cracks in TLH pavementGround creeping downhill; developed since lines paintedSlump examinedjust below pole at leftStop 4 : Close up of Varved marine clayField Lunch in comfort on a rainy daySTOP 5 was on the south side of the NorthSpur access road where linear sandfeatures terminated sharply , dropping 15 feetto a line of bogs that stretch across the NorthSpur upslope areaStop 5Stop 1Stop 5 is on the downslope boundary of a pod of so far un-disturbed ground markedby the curved ( white lichen covered) features ; note brook at right of pod of lichen coveredarea ; possibly a zone of weakness.3 KmRoute of Trans Labrador Highway outlines approx limitof Quick Clay prone ground upslope from North SpurGSC L7Slide Site7 km2013 slide1978 North Spur slideStop 5Dr Bernander and his hostJim Purdy talk into the nightMarge Goudies tribute to her family & LabradorTrappers saw (Joe Goudie Sr); traditional Innu hat ;Inuit ulu (Elizabeth Goudie); Metis Caribou skin pouch (Mina Groves)DAY 2 - Visit to 2014 Landslide two particular landslides by boat(in miserable weather)A major landslide occurredhalfway between Goose Bay and Muskrat Falls inthe summer of 2014; Dr Bernander visited this slide by both boat and helicopter.This is a link to a video of the 2014 slide shot by the Grand RiverKeepers shortly after the slide took placehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIcL_pN4NlQBy the time Dr. Bernander reached the slide by water in late October, some ofthe debris had already been swept away by the river but enough remained tomark it as a Downhill Progressive landslide.A second recent slide located just upriver from the 2014 slide was examinedby boat and helicopter and was found to be a typical Bottle neck Slide anotherindication of the potential for Downhill Progressive landslides.This Google Earth image shows the route by boat fromthe TLH causeway to thegeneral area of the two slidesvisited (general area circled).TLH CausewayGoose BayAirportGetting Ready to go upstreamat the TLH causeway southside of river in backgroundOne of numerous smaller slidesseen on the way upriverComing up on the 2014 slideNote line of trees sticking out into the riverPart 1: End of remaining trees swept out into riverPart 2: middle part of trees swept out into the riverPart 3: Slide and shoreward partof trees swept out into the riverCLOSEINSPECTION OF THE FOREST IN THE RIVER2014 Slide -12014 Slide -22014 Slide - 3Dr. Bernander on the banks of the Lower Churchilljust upstream from the 2014 slide (see line of treesswept out into river in the background)Bottleneck slide from the river ; better view from air on Day 3See slides 70 to 72Mission accomplished:Eldridge Davis & Jim Learning(GRK) with 2014 slide in backgroundAN OLD SLIDEobserved on the way back to Goose Bay:Disturbed sediments in the center of photo indicate thatthis bank of clay slid down from the escarpment in the backgroundRiver level deposit of clay also seen on the way backDR. BERNANDER LEADS anINFORMAL DISCUSSION(after a potluck at Roberta and Jims )onDAY 1 and 2 OBSERVATIONS& the NORTH SPUR GENERALLYDAY 3 Helicopter tour of the North Spur, various slidesand both sides of the entire Lower Churchill Valleyup to Gull IslandLeavingthe Goose Bay airport area:Note TLH Causeway to south bank of Lower Churchillwhere boat trip started on Day 22014 slide northbank of Lower Churchill Riverbetween MuskratFalls and Goose Bay (alsovisited by boat) looking upriver; Muskrat Fallsapprox 3 miles upriverBottle Neck slide hereWHERETHE SLIDEHIT THE RIVERAnother view of the 2014 slide: Cliff is approx 150 feet highCLOSE UP of top part of the approx 150 foot high 2014 SLIDE ESCARPMENTMoving upriver a Km or so : Bottleneck Slide from the air.Cliffs are approx 150 feet high; see slide 77 on how Bottleneckslides turn into circular Kettle LakesAnother view of the Bottleneck: it is not hard to see why this sort of landslidecan turn into a Kettle Lake which is often the case. The soil conditions needed to createa bottleneck slide are the same as needed for a Downhill Progressive LandslideAnother view of the Bottleneck slide:Note the narrow neck like channel throughwhich the liquefied clay must escapeLeaving the area of therecent bottleneck slidewe flew 4 miles to theriver bank just south ofthe North Spur.1. Cliffs of clay (slide 74)2. Associated landslides3. Brook valley (slide 75)4. Kettle lakes (slide 78)12234CLIFFS of CLAY~ 1 km downstreamfrom the North SpurCLIFFS of CLAY extending on to the North Spur -Note also the incised brook channel which may be associated withthe three Kettle Lakes/bottle neck slides upstream;A potential zone of weakness;See Slides 77 & 78The North Spur looking up river:light leafless deciduous treesmark the general extent of the 1978 slide on the downriver side of the Spur.Note the new clearing for a transmission line near top of slide.Slumping clayshown in slides 32 & 33Three Kettle Lakes in various stages of in-filling on the North Spurcaused by Bottleneck type landslides. Downhill Progressivelandslides are associated with same type of sensitive clay conditions.Brook in Slide 75Bottlenecklandslide scarsKettle Ponds in circular depressions on the North Spurmay contribute to the formation ofDownhill Progressive landslidesSouth side of Lower Churchill RiverCLEAR CUTTINGof NEW TRANSMISSION LINEon the NORTH SPUREnd/Start of1978 slideClear cutting in the beautiful Lower Brook valley;this area will be flooded by the Muskrat projectNalcors own studies say reservoir flooding willincrease the number of landslides for decadesTLHEdwards IslandNEXT STOP - 2010 EDWARDS ISLAND SLIDEThis slide took place in February 2010. It was approximately 1,900 feet wide and wasmeasured at 2.2 million cubic meters by Amec Consulting in 2010.The presence of Quick Clay was confirmed by Peach in 2013It was termed a classic example ofa Downhill Progressive type landslide by Bernander 20142010EDWARDS ISLAND SLIDE general overview image date 2013The bulk of the slide material went out into the river andhas been swept away; the part that is left is still impressiveEdwards IslandMain Slide EscarpmentKettle LakesRenewed riverchannelSmeller slideas in slide 872010 Edwards Island Quick Clay slide looking south said by Dr. Bernander to bea classic example of aDownhill Progressive LandslideEdwards Island slide westScarp is approx 100 feet highEdwards Island slide centerEdwards IslandEdwards Island slide eastCLOSEUP of top part of EDWARDS ISLAND SLIDE ESCARPMENTA SMALLER SLIDESOUTH BANK JUST DOWNSTREAMFROM MAIN EDWARDS ISLAND SLIDE- see slide 81 for locationJourneys EndDr BernanderGeorge RussellPilot Dean BurryRobertaFrampton-Benifeld(GRK)BIG thanks toPresident Todd Russell &George Russell( Manager -DNR&E)of NunatuKavutfor choppertimeConclusionThere is, according to Dr. Bernander, substantial evidence of DownhillProgressive Landslide activity in the Lower Churchill Valley.So it is prudent to treat Downhill Progressive Landslides as a significant riskto the Muskrat Falls Project and thus to the people living downstream in the caseof a landslide /dam break at the North Spur.Nalcor was wrong in stating that there is NO evidence of Downhill ProgressiveLandslides in the Lower Churchill Valley and has incorrectly informed theIndependentEngineer as to a major project risk as a result.This is a matter of safety and must be corrected.Nalcor has also claimed that they have fully examined the danger forDownhill Progressive landslides at the North Spur and that it does not exist.In view of the grave safety implications of this issue, Nalcor should make publicall data and analysis in its possession relating to Nalcors Downhill ProgressiveLandslide analysis of stability issues on the North Spur at the earliest possible date.THANKS TOThe many private Newfoundlandsponsers who made Dr. Bernandersvisit toSt Johns and Central LabradorpossiblePresident Todd Russell andEnvironmental and Natural ResourcesManagerGeorge Russell ofNunatuKavuk for chopper timeThe Grand River KeepersRoberta Frampton-Benifeld and JamesLearning for hosting the pot luck and themany who brought the goodiesMarge Goudie and Jim Purdy forHospitality and Good ConversationEldred Davis for getting us up river(and Stop 5).Site Visit photos : Cabot MartinStig and Roberta at the Trappers MonumentNorth West River