recipient of james watt gold medal

1

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) : MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus in Environmental Science,

University of East Anglia

Wenhaston: 14th May 2013

The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies

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Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012

• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approx emission factor Comments

Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

Embedded carbon from construction is similar for most technologies e.g. wind, nuclear, coal solar PV ~ is somewhat higher gas generation ~ a little less..

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Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKUntil 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.

Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.

Import Gap

In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight.

In late March things became even more critical.

Reduction because of switch back to coal

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What are causes of price rises in recent years? • Since 2004 Electricity Bills for average household have risen

from ~ £230 to around ~£440 or 90% *

Support for renewables in 2011 was £1.285 billion pounds.

- or an increase of 0.39 p/kWh in retail price of electricity.

• At typical unit prices of 12 – 13p per kWh this represents only a 3% increase in unit charge.

• However wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh by end of 2012.

* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website

• In the first 70 days of 2013 wholesale price rose a further 19%

• At times in March 2013 Utilities were selling electricity at a loss of over 6p per kWh

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

?

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods


Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

0

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12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

In

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New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from

* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and

drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *

On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2+p

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p

Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical

development needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

10


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature, but

limited potential2.5 - 3p

11p for <2MW projects

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

Photovoltaic<<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down

costs significantly15+ p

25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection)

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming

10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p 25p +/-8

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p

depending on technology

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

No sound on video

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007

Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

ScotRenewablesFloating device

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.

In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW


costly15+ p

13-15p (2012 projection


needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind.

Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil


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Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear?

New Coal

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Oil

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now


• No electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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0

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kWh

in p

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d

No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

Raising Awareness

• Average Electricity consumption per household• Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities• Average cost per household relative to average.

Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and SuffolkkWh Rank Cost Reduction 2008-11

Norwich 3284 2 73% 7.1%Ipswich 3851 110 86% 11.5%Waveney 4033 172 90% 8.7%Great Yarmouth 4268 240 96% 9.2%Broadland 4420 284 99% 4.3%St Edmundsbury 4468 299 100% 8.2%North Norfolk 4716 350 106% 16.4%Suffolk Coastal 4730 353 106% 11.9%Breckland 4734 354 106% 5.8%South Norfolk 4810 371 108% 10.0%Babergh 4843 377 108% 7.8%Forest Heath 4860 380 109% 6.1%King’s Lynn and West Norfolk 4899 386 110% 14.5%Mid Suffolk 5120 399 115% 10.5%

Averages: Norfolk 4446 Suffolk 4491 kWh

Latest data available from early May 2013 covering areas of population of ~1500 – 2000. Lower Level Super Output Area: Wenhaston and Walberswick: E01030201

WenhastonHalesworth

Walberswick

Southwold

Local Information – from latest DECC Statistics

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Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk

Data are for Standard Meters – District Average 3809 kWh/Annum

Data are for Economy 7 Meters – District Average 6101 kWh/Annum

Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh)

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• 2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewell• Other Data based on typical load factors

Existing Renewables

Sizewell B

Great Yarmouth

• Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk (allowing for losses)

~ 11000 GWh

• Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk = 7803 GWh

• Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200 GWh

• Embedded Renewable Electricity such as ON-SHORE wind will be used near demand incurring limited transmission losses.

• Large Scale Generation incurs 8.5% transmission/distribution loss Export of Electricity to rest of UK

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Pilot Lights £9 per week

Pilot lights

off

Pilot Lights turned off

during week

Awareness in the Local Community

Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings

St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood

Heated by 3 warm air heaters

New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%

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Sustainable Options for the future?Energy GenerationSolar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from Summer 2013

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095

hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

Options available for Communities/Householders

Energy Generation•Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy

• Biomass boilers - a sensible option but needs a reliable fuel supply. With the new Renewable Heat Incentive - attractive for homes / buildings heated by oil or electricity but not, mains gas.

• Micro Wind:Mast mounted ~ 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000

kWh depending on location

• Most convenient if running on pellets

• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

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Ground Source: Heat Pumps

~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating.

Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.

Retro fitting air-source heat pumps with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

Conclusions and Reflections• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK.

• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels (only slightly from current support for renewables). Onshore wind is on track to be one of cheapest and PREDICTABLE energy forms from 2020.

• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy coupled with small changes in behaviour

• Community Engagement is needed to raise awareness and better management as individuals must play their part alongside technical measurements taken by Government.

or do we ignore these warnings?

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直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”Lao Tzu (604-531 BC)

Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

FINALLY

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/cred.htm

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at

Conclusions and Reflections

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Supplementary slides not given in actual presentation at Wenhaston but were available in case of questions

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Video Clips

Pelamis [no sound]

Oyster

Limpet

ScotRenewables [no sound]

Look East

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1.33 billion people

0.94 billion people

Raw materials

1.03 billion people

Products: 478 M

tonnes

CO 2 increase in

3 years

Aid

& E

du

cation

The Unbalanced Triangular Trade

Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Water issues are equally important.

Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

Ethical Issues of International Trade

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How Variable is Wind Energy?70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid

Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations.

Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hoursPrediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advanceActual Output in last week of January 2013

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How Variable is Wind Energy?

Over 8700 Data points covering whole of 2012 Coefficient of Correlation 0.96

Data from BMREPORTSChanges in output over 30 minute period for a 12 month periodWindMax: 914 MWMin: – 1051 MWStDev : 37.8 MWNuclearMax: 1630 MWMin: - 877 MWStDev: 39.9MW

How Variable is Wind Energy?

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It is often argued that Wind Energy is unpredictable?

A single unscheduled trip from Sizewell B Power station has much more impact than variations in wind output.

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Micro CHP

Replaces normal boiler

Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas

Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff.

Options available for heating buildings– CHP Pumps

• To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer.

• Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration.

All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP

must be MCS Accredited

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Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines

•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms

Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locationsNot generally recommended

Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location

Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

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Heat pumps run off electricity

For a well designed ground source heat pump system:

•Typically 3.5 – 4 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP).

•If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.

Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.

Retro fitting air-source heat pumps with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

Options available for the Householder – Heat PumpsOptions available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

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Ground Source: Heat Pumps

~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating to ensure difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible.

Zones of building can be controlled via a manifold

Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

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Increasing Occurrence of Drought

45

Increasing Occurrence of Flood

Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

• Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,

– 13.1% less heating needed– And 106% more cooling.

Temperature changes: Evidence in East AngliaTemperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal

Despite particular cold December 2010 in UK – worldwide it was 1st/2nd hottest ever

48

Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh)• ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved

• Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation• ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved

713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M

Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered

Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuelsSubsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future

• Cavity Insulation• ~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved

• There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles

• Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved.

• An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term.

Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011

49

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK

Prices are much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

UK no longer self sufficient

in gas

At 19:00 on 4th March, Electricity was being sold at a loss of over 6p per unit when transmission and distribution cost are included.

Langeled Line from Norway

Oil reaches $130 a barrel

Severe Cold Spells

50

Alternative Strategies for Financing• Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in

imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.

• Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income.

• Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less

affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW

Images courtesy of WindCropHonningham Thorpe, Norfolk

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March 4, 2013 7:17 pmUK natural gas prices reach seven-year highBy Guy Chazan

UK natural gas prices soared on Monday to their highest in seven years, as problems at a gas processing plant in Norway squeezed supplies and raised fears of higher household energy bills.

The spike in prices underscored Britain’s growing reliance on gas from Norway and the lack of availability of liquefied natural gas imports from countries such as Qatar. It came with gas storage levels heavily depleted because of below-average winter temperatures.

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK

52

What are component parts of Electricity Prices?

Actual cost of generating electricity at power station – including fuel costs – varies on 30 minute basis.Average to date in 2012 ~ 4.5 p/kWh + max 10.9 p/kWh [Saturday 11th Feb 18:00] min 2.8 p/kWh

Distribution Charges by UK Power Networks** equivalent to overall charge of ~ 1.95 p/ kWh to domestic consumers

Transmission Network Charges by National Grid Company. In East Anglia 3.63p / kWh (North of Scotland 1.48p/kWh - South West 4.23 p/kWh)*

+ From ELEXON Website – weighted average 30min figure* National Grid Charging Statement April 2012** UK Power Networks Charging Statement October 2011

~10p

• Charges by Meter Reader [e.g. Siemens]• Admin and billing by Electricity Supplier – e.g.

E.ON, nPower etc.• Profit for Electricity Supplier

Retail Price of Electricity in range 12 – 28p /kWh – often two rates – more expensive for first units – cheaper thereafter.

53

What are causes of price rises in recent years?

• The main causes are increasing dependence on imported gas and to a lesser extent profits?? by utility companies??

• Support for Renewables accounts for <<10% of rise in bills

• By 2020 wholesale prices are likely to rise significantly because of increasing dependence on imported gas.

• Prices of cheaper renewables such as onshore wind are coming down and support reduced by a further 10+% from 1st April 2013.

• Offshore wind and Photovoltaics are much more costly and receive twice the support of onshore wind.

• From April 1st Tidal and Wave devices will be receiving 5.5 times the support of onshore wind.

• Nuclear discussion on prices are currently at prices around 15% higher than current total cost of wind.

* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website

0

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Mean |External Temperature (oC)

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h/d

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Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy

Good Management at UEA has reduced Energy Requirements in a low energy by over 50%

800

350

Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%

原始供热方法新供热方法 54

Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia

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• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.

• Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.

• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault

• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.

Low Energy Lighting Installed

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recipient of james watt gold medal

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