recipient of james watt gold medal for energy conservation

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal for Energy Conservation

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvReader Emeritus: University of East Anglia 1

Pathways to an Energy Secure and Low Carbon Future: Hard Choices Ahead

Broadland Climate Change Community Champion Teams– May 14th 2011

Pathways to an Energy Secure and Low Carbon Future

Energy Security: Difficult Choices

Awareness Raising

Effective Management

Innovative Technical Solutions

• Many options for Long Term ~ 2050• But how do we also ensure Energy Security Issues to 2020/5

2

• Good Record Keeping and Objective Analysis of data > leading to energy reduction through good management

• Effective Integration of Technologies

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Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

Import Gap

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK

On 7th/8th December 2011: UK Production was only 39%: 12%

from storage and 49% from imports

Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

Gas Production and Demand in UK

3

UK becomes net importer of gas

Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway

Oil reaches $140 a barrel

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

4

Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approx emission factor Comments

Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

• Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK• But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this.• A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions

from electricity consumption

Suffolk & Norfolk (2009)

~83gSizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

5

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002late 2010 (*)

9th May 2011 (**)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at

present 45-50%)

Available now (but gas is running

out)~2p +

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for

significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently

~40% but scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without

Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

~8.3p +/-3p

8.0p[5 - 11]

~ 9.7p for 1st new nuclear subsequently

7.0p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

New Coal ~ 10.5p with

CCS ~ 13.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Electricity Markey Reform Consultation – January 2011** Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee

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Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

6

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from * DECC Consultation Document on Electricity Market Reform Jan 2011.** Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and

drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

**

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

On Shore Wind

~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p

+/- 0.8p

7


Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

**

On Shore Wind

~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p

+/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind 10 - 15%

technical development

needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later

12.5p +/- 2.5

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

8

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to

electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p

+/- 0.8p





12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro) 5%

technically mature, but limited potential

2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects

9



2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

**

On Shore Wind

~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p

+/- 0.8p





12.5p +/- 2.5

9Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified




Photovoltaic

<1% even assuming 5

GW of installation

available, much research needed to bring down costs

significantly

16+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8

Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

10



2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

**

On Shore Wind

~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p

+/- 0.8p





12.5p +/- 2.5





Photovoltaic

<1% even assuming 5

GW of installation

available, much research needed to bring down costs

significantly

16+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8

Sewage, Landfill,

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5%

available, but research needed in

some areas e.g. advanced

gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p depending on

technology

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

11




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind ~10% available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p ~8.2p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind

10 - 15%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but

research needed 2.5 - 4p

7 - 13p depending on technology

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited-major development

not before 20204 - 8p

No information but likely to

be ~20p

19p +/- 6 Tidal

26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

12




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)


10- 15%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8




Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited-major development

not before 20204 - 8p

No information but likely to

be ~20p

19p +/- 6 Tidal

26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

13




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)



~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8




Wave/Tidal Stream

~0.1% technology limited- 4 - 8p ~20p??Tidal ~19p

Wave ~26.5p

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southWould save 40000 tonnes of CO2

26p +/-5Tidal

Barrages5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010

Government abandoned plans for development

14




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)



~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8




Wave/Tidal Stream

~0.1% technology limited- 4 - 8p ~20p??Tidal ~19p

Wave ~26.5p

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%technology available but unlikely for 2020.

Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to

be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consumed electricity

15

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.

[very expensive or technically immature or both]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

16

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

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nuclear new nuclear coal

new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.

We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

18

The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raisingElectricity Consumption

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Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption

Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007

For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.

When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

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Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements

800

350

Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%

CO2 emissions reduced by 17.5 tonnes per annum. 19

Performance of ZICER Building

Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia

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• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.

• Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.

• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault

• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.

Low Energy Lighting Installed

20

Pilot Lights £9 per week

Pilot lights

off

Pilot Lights turned off

during week

Good Record Keeping and Analysis can result in significant savings

St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood

Heated by 3 warm air heaters

New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%

The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising

kWh % cost Rank % Renewables 2008Norwich 3,535 79% 6 0.0%Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 0.0%Waveney 4,417 99% 181 1.9%Broadland 4,618 103% 231 3.0%Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 30.0%St Edmundsbury 4,869 109% 280 1.0%Breckland 5,028 112% 312 31.8%Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336 0.0%Babergh 5,252 117% 343 0.1%South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358 5.0%Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360 1.0%North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385 1.3%Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390 18.3%King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731 128% 393 2.5%

UK Average 4478• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities

Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumptionin Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission factors)

Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn

Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk - 2009

Installations under the Feed In Tariff Scheme (11/05/2011)

23

Technology

Domestic Installations

Other Installations* Total

NumberInstalled Capacity

(MW)Number

Installed Capacity

(MW)Number

Installed Capacity

(MW)

NorfolkHydro 2 0.021 1 0.49 2 0.021Micro CHP 4 0.003 0 0 3 0.003Photovoltaic 749 1.883 12 0.099 761 1.982Wind 21 0.153 6 0.040 27 0.193

Total 775 2.060 18 0.139 793 2.198SuffolkHydro 0 0 0 0 0 0.000Micro CHP 1 0.001 0 0 1 0.001Photovoltaic 748 1.904 8 0.039 756 1.944Wind 19 0.125 2 0.011 21 0.136Total 768 2.030 10 0.050 778 2.080

• * Commercial, Industrial and Community Schemes.• Note: Chris Huhne announced a potential curtailment of large PV

FIT schemes (>50kW) in early February 2011.

Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology

24

Solar Thermal solutions can provide hot water

• However, performance can be significantly affected by way normal central heating boiler is used for backup.

• A factor of two in output has been measured for otherwise identical installations

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J JMonth

kWh/

day

BSD1 BS01

BS02 BS16

BS17 BS26

BS27 BS52

Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology

3 units each generating 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat

25

e.g. UEA’s Combined Heat and Power

Improved insulation, improved appliance efficiency, (power packs, lighting etc, etc). Energy conserving technologies e.g. heat pumps, CHP etc.

26

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/ 2000Total site

CHP generation

export import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission

factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide26

Significant Savings in CO2 emissions are possible with CHP

A 1 MW Adsorption chiller

• Uses Waste Heat from CHP

•Provides chilling requirements in summer

•Reduces electricity demand in summer

•Increases electricity generated locally

•Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually.

27

Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA• Demand for Heat is low in

summer: plant cannot be used effectively.

• More electricity could be generated in summer

• A Paradox: Largest amount of electricity was imported when demand was least!

For optimum results: Care in matching demand is needed

• Peak output is 34 kW

• All electricity must be converted from DC to AC by use of inverters.

• Inverters are only 91% efficient

28

Building Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation

Typical Solar Array: ZICER Building, UEA

• Most use of electricity is for computers

• DC power packs are typically ~70% efficient

• Only 2/3rds of costly electricity is used effectively.

• An integrated system in a new building would have both a DC and AC network.

• Reduced heat gain in building leading to less air-conditioning requirements.

29

A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: A summary

4. Using Renewable Energy

UEA Advanced Gasifier CHP

5. Offset Carbon Emissions

3. Using Efficient Equipment

1. Raising Awareness

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30

Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions

Some costs for providing a low carbon future

• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved

• On-shore wind under Renewable obligation ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved

• Cavity Insulation - £30 to - £80 per tonne CO2 saved i.e. cost negative [based on 30 year]

• Effective Energy Management can also often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved.

• An effective strategy for a low carbon economy will focus on most cost effective solutions first.

31

Conclusions

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist Philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

And Finally!

Some costs for providing a low carbon future• Energy Security and a Low Carbon Strategies are important

for a sustainable and prosperous future and should not focus just on energy generation but also on energy reduction

• Significant savings in monetary and carbon terms can be achieved through awareness raising

• Better management can lead to significant and often cheaper solutions for a low carbon future

• Important to Integrate effectively the use of newer technologies with actual demand

e.g. local generation avoiding unnecessary losses – also avoid unnecessary conversion form DC to AC etc.

33

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

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ax

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single wind farmall "visible" windfarmsdemand

Variation in UK Electricity and Demand and Wind Generation.

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%

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windnuclear

• A single wind farm may have moderate variation in output

• Output smoothed if whole UK is considered.

• Demand also has significant diurnal variation

Data for 23-25th February 2011 from www.bmreports.com

• Output from nuclear plant is nearly constant

• difference in variation in nuclear output compared to demand is comparable with difference in demand and wind generation

http://www.bmreports.com/

34

Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Electricity exported from Norfolk/Suffolk in 2009 to rest of UK ~ 3200 GWh representing a net CO2 saving of ~ 1.43 Mtonnes

At £12.50 per tonne (current EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved.

• However – in 2010, Sizewell B was off line from over 6 months, so is this low carbon electricity sustainable?

• Is such a reliance on a single source a secure or sustainable?

• From BBC Website – 27th May 2008

“Hundreds of thousands of homes suffered power cuts after a fault caused an unplanned shutdown at the Sizewell B nuclear power plant in Suffolk. Homes and businesses in London, and East Anglia were affected…..”

• Local generation avoids most transmission and distribution losses and small scale schemes avoid such major power blackouts.

• However – over decentralisation may lead to distribution grid problems if there is no reinforcement.

35

Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.

Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.

The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.

But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

* Electricity Markey Reform Consultation – January 2011** Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee 36

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods


drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002late 2010 (*)

9th May 2011 (**)

Gas CCGT0 - 80%

(currently 45-50%)

Available now (but UK gas running

out rapidly)~2p +

~8.3p +/-3p

8.0p[5 - 11]

Projection made in/on

Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high.

UK becomes net importer of gas

Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway

Oil reaches $140 a barrelGovernment Projections of wholesale price of gas generation

37

Energy Source Scale To 31/03/11 From 01/04/11 Duration (years)

Anaerobic digestion ≤500kW 11.5 12.1 20Anaerobic digestion >500kW 9 9.4 20Hydro ≤15 kW 19.9 20.9 20Hydro >15 - 100kW 17.8 18.7 20Hydro >100kW - 2MW 11 11.5 20Hydro >2kW - 5MW 4.5 4.7 20Micro-CHP***** <2 kW 10 10.5 10Solar PV ≤4 kW new 36.1 37.8 25Solar PV ≤4 kW retrofit 41.3 43.3 25Solar PV >4-10kW 36.1 37.8 25Solar PV >10 - 100kW 31.4 32.9 25Solar PV >100kW - 5MW 29.3 30.7 25Solar PV Standalone 29.3 30.7 25Wind ≤1.5kW 34.5 36.2 20Wind >1.5 - 15kW 26.7 28.0 20Wind >15 - 100kW 24.1 25.3 20Wind >100 - 500kW 18.8 19.7 20Wind >500kW - 1.5MW 9.4 9.9 20Wind >1.5MW - 5MW 4.5 4.7 20Existing generators transferred from RO 9 9.4 to 2027

Export Tariff 3 3.1

Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1st April 2010

***** for first 30000 installations

38

Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

39

Mostly Eye and Thetford

Scroby

Renewable Energy Generation in Suffolk and Norfolk 2009 - 10

Generation in GWh

stations GWhCapacity

(kW)Load

Factor

Biomass 3 326 61816 60.2%Landfill Gas

18 127 26719 54.3%

Off-shore Wind

1 170 60000 32.3%

On-shore Wind

5 58 24500 27.0%

Sewage Gas

2 10 4836 23.6%

Total 29 691 177871

Total Demand in Norfolk and Suffolk 7803.2 GWh% Renewables 8.9%

National Average 7.8%

Target 10.4%

40

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

recipient of james watt gold medal for energy conservation

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