1 recipient of james watt gold medal aramco 3 rd july 2013 overview of oil, gas and alternative...

1

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

ARAMCO 3rd July 2013

Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East AngliaН.К.Тови

Energy is a key driver for Modern Economies

However, energy production, generation and use is having an impact on the Climate.•Brief Review of Climate Change Issues

•Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues

•Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK

including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future

•Technical options to reduce demand

•Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management

•Conclusions

2


3

Increasing Occurrence of Drought

3

4

Increasing Occurrence of Flood

4

5

Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012

• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

6

Temperature variations in last 160 years

www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

7

• Brief Review of Climate Change Issues

• Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2

issues

• Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK


• Technical options to reduce demand

• Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management

• Conclusions

8


9Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita)

How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

9

UKFrance

World Average

Saudi Arabia

10

Fossil Fuel Options for Electricity Generation

BoilerHP

Generator

CondenserPump

Fuel InCoal/Oil/Gas/

Nuclear

Schematic of a conventional coal, gas, oil or nuclear power plant

Typical Maximum Efficiency for coal/oil/gas ~ 38 - 39%with super critical steam conditions ~ 42 – 45%Nuclear Efficiencies ~ 30 – 34% for PWR ~ 38 – 40% for AGR

High and Low Pressure Turbines

LP

11

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine for Electricity Generation

HP LP

Generator

CondenserPump

Generator

C T

Air

Combustion

Gas

Exhaust

C – CompressorT – TurbineWHB – WasteHeat Boiler Efficiency 47 – 56%

WHB

•Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

12

Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approximate emission factor

per kWh

Comments

Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas (Steam) ~600g Conventional Steam Station

Gas (CCGT) ~400g Most modern may be as low as 380g

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

• Transmission/Distribution losses • UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24%

Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

13

CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)

13

France

UK

Saudi Arabia

Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh

World Average 0.550

Saudi Arabia

14

Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries

14

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro/ Tidal/Wave

Other Renewables

Biofuels/Waste



issues





• Conclusions

15


16

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKUntil 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.

Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.

Import Gap

In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight.

In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available.

Reduction because of switch back to coal

17

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

?

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

18

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods


Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

In

sta

lled

Ca

pacit

y (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

19

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from

* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and

drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *

On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

20


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *



Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

Off Shore Wind 20 - 40%some technical

development needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

21


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature, but

limited potential2.5 - 3p

11p for <2MW projects

22


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

Photovoltaic<<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down

costs significantly15+ p

25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection)

23

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation in 2020 in desert climates

but not in UK

Central Solar Power Plants in SpainIn foreground PS10 – 11 MW – in background PS20 – 20 MW

A 500 MW plant is due for completion in 2013 at Crescent Dunes in USA

24

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Plant

CondenserPump

HP LPC T

Air

Combustion

Gas

Exhaust

GG

C – CompressorT – TurbineG – GeneratorWHB – Waste Heat Boiler

WHB

Parabolic Solar Power Plant

Example: Hassi R’Mel , Algeria 25 MW Solar & 130 MW Combined Cycle

25


~8.2p +/- 0.8p


drivers/barriers

2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *





~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming

10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p 25p +/-8

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p

depending on technology

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

20 - 40%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

No sound on video

27




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007

Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

Video of device

There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device

ScotRenewablesFloating device

28




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.

In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

30




2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW


costly15+ p

13-15p (2012 projection


needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

31

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind.

Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

32

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • the UK will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

33

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

H (b

illio

ns o

f uni

ts (k

Wh)

)

Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear?

New Coal

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Oil

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now


• No electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010



issues





• Conclusions

34


EngineGenerator

36% Electricity

50% Heat

Gas

Heat Exchanger

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses

86%

Localised generation makes use of waste heat.

Reduces conversion losses significantly

Conversion efficiency improvements –

Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power

61% Flue Losses

36%

35

UEA’s Combined Heat and Power

3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat

36

37

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/2000

Total site

CHP generation

export import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission

factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide37

Carbon Savings at UEA CHP Plant

3838

Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA

Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectivelyMore electricity could be generated in summer

38

Conversion efficiency improvements –

Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power

A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit

Uses electricity to drive compressor

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

Compressor

压缩器

39

A more efficient way to provide Air-Conditioning

Electricity

Absorption Heat Pump

Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

外部热

Heat from external source

W ~ 0

吸收器

吸收器

热交换器

Absorber

Desorber

Heat Exchanger

40

A 1 MW Adsorption chiller

1 MW 吸附冷却器

• Reduces electricity demand in summer

• Increases electricity generated locally

• Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

• Uses Waste Heat from CHP

• provides most of chilling requirements in summer

41

UEA’s Aborption Chiller

42

Sustainable Options for the future?Energy GenerationSolar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from late 2013/ early 2014

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095

hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

43

Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines

•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms

Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locationsNot generally recommended

Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location

Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

44

Alternative Strategies for Financing• Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in

imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.

• Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income.

• Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less

affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW

Images courtesy of WindCropHonningham Thorpe, Norfolk

45

Options available for the Householder/CommunityEnergy Generation

•Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy

• Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present for those with mains gas.

• Most convenient if running on pellets

• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

46

Ground Source: Heat Pumps

~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating.

Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.

Retro fitting air-source heat pumps with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank



issues





• Conclusions

47


48

How many people know what 9 (or 16) tonnes of CO2 looks like?

In UK ~5 hot air balloons per person per year.

In Saudi Arabia ~ 9 hot air balloons

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

In Saudi Arabia it is 16 tonnes

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

49

Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

Co

ns

um

pti

on

(k

Wh

)

• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.

• Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.

• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault

• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.

Low Energy Lighting Installed

50

Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK.

• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels

• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour

A secure, sustainable and cost effective future will require:

• Effective Awareness and Management to reduce demand

• Technical Solutions to reduce demand

• Innovation use of low carbon energy sources

51

52

直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”Lao Tzu (604-531 BC)

Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

FINALLY

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/cred.htm

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at

Conclusions and Reflections

1 recipient of james watt gold medal aramco 3 rd july 2013 overview of oil, gas and alternative...

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