recent development and applications of gcam-china:ccs in

RecentdevelopmentandapplicationsofGCAM-China: CCSinChina’sMitigationStrategy

JOINTGLOBALCHANGERESEARCHINSTITUTE

GCAMCommunityModelingMeeting2017

1

SHA YU, JILL HORING, QIANG LIU, ROBERT DAHOWSKI, CASIE DAVIDSON, JAMES EDMONDS, BO LIU, HAEWON MCJEON, JEFF MCLEOD, PRALIT PATEL, LEON CLARKE

HowcouldCCShelpChinaachieveitsNDCandlong-termmitigationtarget?

2

WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?

WhatisthepathwaybywhichChinamightevolvefromnear-term,pilotprojecttolarge-scaledeployment?

WhatmightbethemostappropriateprovincesfordeploymentofCCS?

WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?

Motivation – importance of CCS in China

3

Many countries are pursuing policies to reduce their fossil fuel CO2emissions

There is a need to understand potential future energy system transformationsCCS technologies carry important implications for fossil fuel markets

China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter and relies heavily on domestic fossil fuel resources

Understanding CCS deployment in China would be critical to informing research and development directionsChanges in China’s policy influence coal use and thus global coal market.

StandardGCAM:32geopoliticalregionsToexploreregionalactivitiesinChina,wehaveaddedsubnational detailtoGCAM(versionname:GCAM-China):

31-provinceenergyandeconomicsystemAgricultureandlandusebyagro-ecologicalzonesWatersupplyanddemandatmajorwatershedscale

TheregionaldetailisimbeddedinthebroaderGCAMmodel,thusprovidingglobalconstraintsandcontext.

ThemodeliscurrentlyusedbyinstitutionsinChinaforpolicyanalyses:

AccesstodataUnderstandingChina’spolicydecisionsIdentifyingpotentialmarketsforUStechnologies

GCAM-China – Regional Modeling in a Global Context

4

Recent Model Developments

Shared socioeconomic pathways assumptions at the provincial level

Carbon storage cost curves

Better calibration and improvements in assumptions

CCS technology readiness

Renewable energy competitiveness

On-going developmentsAddition of nonCO2s at the provincial level

Industrial sector breakout

5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Cost($

/tCO

2)

CumulativeSuppliedCCSCapacity(MtCO2)

Shandong

OilFields

CoalRegions

DeepSalineFormations

ProvincialCCSCostCurves

6Sources: Dahowski et al., 2013.

1,600largeCO2 pointsources(powerplantsandindustrialsources)

2,300,000MtCO2 storagecapacity

EOR,coalbasins,deepsalineformations

Significantopportunityforbothlow-costandmoderatelypricedstorage

(Erlian Basin,OrdosBasin) (Bohai BayBasin)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Cost($

/tCO

2)

CumulativeSuppliedCCSCapacity(MtCO2)

InnerMongolia

Scenarios to Understand Energy Demand and Technology Options

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CO2 emissionswithoutclimatepolicy CO2 emissionswithclimatepolicy

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

Uncertaintyinenergydemand

Uncertaintyinenergysupply

system

Advancednuclearandrenewabletechnologies

AvailabilityofCCSretrofit

Deepdecarbonization:CopenhagenandParispledges,

5%decarbonizationperyearafter2030

ScenarioDevelopment– SharedsocioeconomicpathwaysandParis-IncreasedAmbition

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SSP5

SSP3

SSP2SSP1

Paris-IncreasedAmbitionfromFawcettetal.(2015)

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

CO2Em

ission

s(MtCO

2)

SSP4

SSP1– SSP5includevaryingassumptionsofpopulationandGDPgrowth,incomeelasticity

ProvinciallevelpopulationandGDPgrowthratesconvergetocountrylevelinthelongterm

Onlydemand-sideSSPassumptionswereused

PolicyscenarioacrossallSSPsistheParis-IncreasedAmbition

CopenhagenandParispledgesaremet,continueddecarbonization of5%peryear

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China’sP

rimaryEn

ergyCon

sumption

(EJ)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China’sP

rimaryEn

ergyCon

sumption

(EJ)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

solar

wind

hydro

geothermal

nuclear

traditionalbiomass

biomass

naturalgas

oil

coal9

SSP5- Reference SSP5- Policy

SSP3- Reference SSP3- Policy

PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION

Transition of China’s energy system

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

solar

wind

hydro

geothermal

nuclear

traditionalbiomass

biomass

naturalgas

oil

coalCoalis64%ofPrimaryEnergyinReference

Withincreasedshareofcleanenergy,

Coalstillaccountsfor45- 52%ofChina’s

energy

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

CO2Captured

(MTCO2)

EmissionReductionfromRef(%)

CGEM MESSAGE TIMES IPAC GCAM SACC

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% EmissionsReductionfromRef(%)

CGEM MESSAGE TIMES IPAC GCAM SACC

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WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?

IPACTIMESGCAM – SSP5GCAM – SSP3

SACC - LC SACC - ELCMESSAGE

CGEM

GCAM – SSP5

SACC - ELC

MESSAGE

IPACSACC - LC TIMES

CGEM – S2B

CGEM – S2AGCAM – SSP3

NeartermuncertaintyinCCSdeploymentlevel

Mid-centurytrendacrossmodels– asmitigationlevelincreases,roleofCCSincreases

2030 2050

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

SSP5

-Ad

vTech

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

SSP5

-Ad

vTech

2015 2030 2050

CO2Capture(M

tCO2)

Syntheticfuelproduction Industry Electricity


12

2030

2040

2050

Sequestration(policy)Emissions(Ref)


SSP5

Unit: Gt CO2

Unit: Gt CO2

Unit: Gt CO2 Unit: Mt CO2

Unit: Mt CO2

Unit: Mt CO2

13

2030

2040

2050

Emissions(Ref)


SSP5

Unit: Gt CO2

Unit: Gt CO2


Unit: Mt CO2

Unit: Mt CO2

Capture is driven by emissions, energy structure, and available storage

Sequestration(policy)

14

2030

2040

2050

Emissions(Ref)


SSP5

Unit: Gt CO2

Unit: Gt CO2


Unit: Mt CO2

Unit: Mt CO2


High emissions, high capture: Inner Mongolia


15

2030

2040

2050

Emissions(Ref)


SSP5

Unit: Gt CO2

Unit: Gt CO2


Unit: Mt CO2

Unit: Mt CO2


High emissions, low capture: Guangdong


0255075100125150175

Carbon

Captured(M

tCO2)

Syntheticfuel Industry Electricity 16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

InnerMongolia

Sichuan

Hebei

HenanShandong

Hubei

Liaoning

Hunan

MtCO2

Shanxi

Jiangsu50%oftotalcapturefromtop8provinces



0255075100125150175

Carbon

Captured(M

tCO2)

Syntheticfuel Industry Electricity17

1

2

3

4

5

1098

InnerMongolia

ShandongHebei

Henan

ZhejiangSichuan Hubei

Hunan

Jiangsu

MtCO2Xinjiang

50%oftotalcapturefromtop7provinces



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

2015-2050Cu

mulativeCa

pture(M

tCO

2)

Availablestorage(MtCO2) 18

800000 850000 900000

10% Storage Utilization

Inner Mongolia

ShandongHebei

Henan

Zhejiang

JiangsuSichuan

HunanLiaoningHubei

2050



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

2015-2100Cu

mulativeCa

pture(M

tCO

2)

Availablestorage(MtCO2) 19

800000 850000 900000

50% Storage Utilization

Inner Mongolia

Shandong

Hebei

Henan

Hubei Jiangsu

Sichuan

Hunan

ShanxiXinjiang

2100



A few provinces, such as Guangdong, have limited onshore storage capacity and need to explore offshore storage.

HowcouldCCShelpChinaachieveitsNDCandlong-termmitigationtarget?

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WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?ChinaisanidealcandidateforCCSdeploymentwithlarge-scalestoragecapacityandanemphasisoncoalintheenergysystem.UseofCCSwilldependonpolicyapproachesandtotalmitigationneeds.


Near-termCO2 capturewilllikelyfocusonindustrialandsynfuel sectors,whilecaptureinthepowersectorwouldbecomemoreprominentinthelongterm.


Severalprovinces,suchasInnerMongolia,ShandongandHebei,emergeaskeyplayersinboththenearandlongterm.

WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?Formostprovinces,storagewillnotbeaconstraintthroughtheendofthecentury.Severalimportantprovincesarewithoutmeaningfulon-landstorageandwouldthereforerequireoffshorestorage.

Thank you to the Office of Fossil Energy at the US Department of Energy.

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recent development and applications of gcam-china:ccs in

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