water modeling in gcam - umd
TRANSCRIPT
Water Modeling in GCAM
Mohamad Hejazi, Jae Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Page Kyle, Evan Davies*, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Sonny Kim
Joint Global Change Research Institute
November 30, 2011
College Park, MD
Overview
Motivation
Overall framework
Water supply modeling
Water demand modeling
Water markets
Conclusions
2
Water is not fully integrated into any of the present
generation of IAMs. Though all of the major IAM programs
are working on the problem.
Yet,
Climate change hydrology (the amount, timing, and
reliability of fresh water)
Changes in land use and land cover hydrology
Changes in the number of humans, their income levels,
and their energy and food demands human water
demands
What are the implications of explicitly considering water in
IAMs?
Do we have sufficient water to realize a climate policy
world?
Motivation
3
Regional
Labor Force
Regional GDP
Regional
Labor
Productivity
Energy
Demand
Technologies
Energy
Demand
Regional
Resource
Bases
Regional
Energy
Conversion
Technologies
Energy
Supply
Energy
Markets
Energy
Production.
Transformation
& Use
GHG
Emissions
Demand•Crops•LivestockForests products
SupplyRegional Land
Categories and Characteristics
Ag-Land Markets
Production•Crops•Livestock•Forests products
•Biomass energy
Commercial
Biomass
Land Use Change
Emissions
Technology
Land Use
•Crops•Livestock•Managed Forests•Unmanaged
•Crops•Livestock•Biocrops
•Foresty Products
•Land rent•Crop prices•Livestock prices
•Forest product prices•Biomass prices
The GCAM Systems
4
Ocean Carbon
Cycle
Atmospheric
Composition,
Radiative
Forcing, &
Climate
Terrestrial
Carbon Cycle
Energy System
Land Use System
Climate System
Economy System
Water
Allocation and
Use
Water
Demand
Water
Supply
Water
Markets
Agricultural
Sector Demands
Energy Sector
Demands
Industrial Sector
Demands
Household
Sector Demands
Commercial
Sector Demands
Surface Water &
GW Recharge
Fossil GW &
natural lakes
Desalinization
Ecosystem,
Navigation,
Inter-basin
Transfers
(prescribed)
Water System Land use
system
Reservoirs
GCMs
WATER
SUPPLY
WATER
DEMAND
WATER
SUPPLY
Model & Results
Source: http://www.wildfire-burning-thirsts.com/water-cycle.html
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n
11
0,0
00
km
3
Eva
po
tra
ns
pir
ati
on
65
,20
0 k
m3
Runoff + GW Recharge
44,800 km3
5
Water Supply
Model
Maximum Soil Moisture Capacity
Precipitation
Temperature
Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)
Actual Evapotranspiration (AET)
Storage
Runoff
Monthly Water
Balance Model
6
MODEL INPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS
Model Validation
7
This
Study
Fekete et al.
(2000)
WBM
8
Continue…
Model Validation
This Study
FA
O
Climatic Future Projections
9
Climatic Future Projections (2100)
10
Climatic Future Projections (Q2100 – Q2000)
Model Long name IPCC number
CGCM2 Canadian Centre for Climate (Modelling and Analysis) (Canada) 7
CSIRO mk 2 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia) 10
DOE PCM Parallel Climate Model (NCAR - USA) 30
HadCM3 Hadley Centre Coupled Model 23 11
WATER DEMAND Model & Results
Water
Supply
Water
Withdrawal Extraction
Return Flow
Water Consumption
• Evapo[transpi]ration
• Incorporated into products or crops
• Contaminated
• Unavailable to other users
Water use in three parts:
1. Domestic
2. Industrial
3. Agricultural
Differentiate between withdrawal and consumption
12
Domestic
Water Demand TechPriceGDPC93.2WUc 3.0$)2005(
4.0)/$2005()//( 3 USCapitaUSyrcapitam
13
Global Domestic Water Withdrawals
14
Domestic Water Withdrawals
15
(2100 vs. 2005)
Industrial Water
Demand
16
Industrial Water Use
Energy
Primary Electricity
Manufacturing, mining
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Uranium
Cooling water
(thermoelectric)
Reservoir losses
(hydropower)
Thermoelectric plants may be
cooled in four ways:
1. Once-through flow: oldest and
cheapest
2. Evaporative cooling towers:
newer, more capital
3. Cooling ponds: newer, hard to
classify...
4. Dry cooling: newer, expensive
STEPS:
• Water withdrawal and consumption
coefficients (m3/MWh) for each elec.
tech. and GCAM region
• Cooling system deployments (%) for
each elec. tech. and GCAM region
• Projected changes in each (now-2100)
Global Energy Water Demand
(Withdrawal vs. Consumption)
17
Withdrawal Consumption
Total
biophysical
water
consumption
Green Water
Water from
precipitation, directly
used by crops or stored
as soil moisture
Blue Water
Water withdrawn for
irrigation from rivers,
lakes, aquifers or dams
Blue water
demands on
irrigated lands
Green water
demands on
rain-fed lands
Green water
demands on
irrigated lands
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mt/
yr
Agricultural Production FiberCrop
PalmFruit
OtherGrain
OilCrop
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Root_Tuber
FodderHerb
FodderGrass
MiscCrop
SugarCrop
Calculating Water Consumption
Irrigate
d
Rain
fed
Agric Water Demand
18
Energy crops’ water
consumption also
increases, especially in
the later half of the
century
Biophysical Water Consumption
19
Total biophysical water
consumption to almost
double by 2050, after
which the increase will be
marginal
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
km
3/y
r
Biophysical water consumption- CROPS
Biomass
FodderGrass
FodderHerb
PalmFruit
FiberCrop
SugarCrop
Root_Tuber
OtherGrain
Wheat
Rice
OilCrop
MiscCrop
Corn
Agricultural Water Demand
Consumption 20
Effect of Climate Policy:
Total Global Water Demands
21
Solve all markets simultaneously for land, energy, and water among the competing demand
sectors to establish prices & shares by source 22
Downscaled
GCMs climatic
variables
Climate Mitigation
Policy from GCAM
Pattern scaling
of climatic
variables
Renewable surface
water
Renewable
groundwater
Fossil groundwater
Brackish & saline
water bodies
Natural water
bodies (lakes)
Pre
defin
ed
Cost 1
Cost 2
Cost 3
Cost 4
Cost 5
Agricultural water demand
Energy & Industrial water
demand
Domestic water demand
Evaporation losses from
reservoirs
Ecosystems, recreations,
and navigations
Gravity Model Global land use
model (GLM)
Run GCAM for one
time period (5 years)
t=2005 t=t+5
SOLVING WATER MARKETS IN GCAM
Energy markets (~120) Land use markets (~60)
Water Demands
Global Water Supply Model
Water markets (~125)
GCM simulations
over 21st century
AEZ scale
(151 regions)
GCAM regional
scale (14 regions)
Basin scale
(125 regions)
0.5ox0.5o map of
land use types
Monthly 0.5ox0.5o maps of
climatic variables (P, T)
Sp
atia
l D
ow
nsc
alin
g
Wa
ter
de
ma
nd
s
at
ba
sin
sc
ale
Water
Demand
Water
Supply
Land
Demand
land
Supply
Energy
Demand
Energy
Supply
Some Preliminary Observations from GCAM
Water Systems Research
Agriculture is the largest user of water (70% withdrawals; 85%
consumption) - Bio-energy crops can potentially become
important source of water demand in the future
Developing countries demands for water can be expected to
grow over time, particularly in the first half of the century.
Energy systems need water—large source of withdrawals, much
smaller consumer.
Cooling water demands for power generation (the largest energy
user of water) can be expected to grow in the future, particularly
in the developing world.
New cooling technologies could dramatically reduce fresh water
withdrawals, but increase fresh water consumption.
NEXT: Allocate water among the competing water users +
downscaling 23
Impact Assessment: Water Scarcity
24
Domestic
Agriculture
(irrigation & livestock)
Electricity
Generation
Primary Energy &
Mining
Manufa-cturing
Global Water
Demand
For a given climate mitigation policy scenario & particular year:
Global gridded-map of total
water demands
Requirement: Downscale
demands to grid scale
Water Supply
Severe Stress:
0.4 ≤ WSI
Moderate Stress:
0.2 ≤ WSI < 0.4
Low Stress:
0.1 ≤ WSI < 0.2
No Stress:
WSI < 0.1
Impact Assessment:
Water Scarcity
(downscaling)
25
Irrigation
Downscale demands to grid scale
Population
Global Energy Water Demand
(No Policy vs. Climate Policy)
26
Withdrawal Withdrawal
Biophysical Water Consumption
27
Most of the water
demand is in the
developing nations of the
world
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
km
3/y
r
Biophysical water consumption- REGIONS
Korea
Japan
Eastern Europe
Canada
Australia_NZ
Middle East
Western Europe
Former Soviet Union
USA
China
Latin America
India
Southeast Asia
Africa
More than 70% of water
for agriculture is
consumed by developing
regions, which increases
to above 75% in 2095
70% 75%