re-tooling pce for the 21 st century
DESCRIPTION
Re-Tooling PCE for the 21 st Century. Remarks to Rural Alaska Energy Conference April 2004 Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage email [email protected]. Two Assertions. PCE is important and effective PCE is being eroded. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Re-Tooling PCE for the 21st Century
Remarks to
Rural Alaska Energy ConferenceApril 2004
Steve ColtInstitute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorageemail [email protected]
Two Assertions
• PCE is important and effective• PCE is being eroded
Three Suggestions
• Inflation-proof the payments, else watch them decline and decline and decline
• Carve out some funds for diesel efficiency and non-diesel alternatives
•Trial run of fixed payments
PCE is Important
• Serves about 79,000 people• About 4,000 overall kWh per
residential customer, of which about 3,500 is PCE-eligible
• Compare to 8,145 kWh per residential customer in Railbelt
PCE is Effective, Overall
• Supports water and sanitation systems
• Supports clinics• Supports schools• Supports basic residential needs
PCE is small potatoes compared to federal spending
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
PCE per person Fed grants per person
Fed grants are only half of fed spending in rural AK
PCE covers small portion of Total True Cost of $116 million/yr
Source: ISER Sustainable Utilities Study, 2003
PCE
Total Cost
PCE is Being Eroded
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1995 2000 2005
pce
$ p
er p
erso
n
$/person
real $/person
Suggestion #1
• Inflation-proof the program– Reduce spending now, if necessary– Move to POMV-type draw on
endowment
Suggestion #2
• Carve out a portion of PCE for diesel efficiency and non-diesel alternatives– Mandated efficiency standards were
not very effective
Fuel Cost per kWh: Anchorage vs. Rural Alaska
2
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage high-wind communities
Actual Range of Fuel Costs
King Cove, City of Quinhagak Togiak Perryville, City of Chauthbaluk Noatak
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
$ p
er
Ga
llo
nPCE Recipient Communities
Box Plot - Median, Upper & Lower Quartiles, Outer Fences, Outliers
Source: FY96-FY00 PCE Annual Report 0ct 01 Oct. 22, 2001 11:47:46 AM
NonFuel Cost per kWh
8
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage AVEC
Nonfuel cost includes
• Generators (machines)• Distribution lines and meters
(equipment)• Operations, Maintenance and
Management (people)
Nonfuel cost per kWh for small rural utilities
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
kWh Sold
$/k
Wh
Village Non-Profit
Village For Profit
Regional Non-Profit
Regional For-Profit
Kotlik-99
Kotlik-97
Kotlik-98
Tuntutuliak
AVEC
Arctic Village
Pedro Bay
Napaskiak
Venetie
Suggestion #3
• Allow several utilities to receive fixed PCE payments on a pilot basis
Fixed Payment Pilot Program
• Payments made to utility• Determined based on historical
factors – hold harmless concept• Overall up-down ratchet based on
overall funding, share of population
• Otherwise, fixed for at least 5 years
Theoretical Benefits of Fixed Payments
• Rewards efficiency• Rewards innovation• Rewards investment in non-diesel• Nullifies incentives for cost-shifting
and cost hiding
Two Practical Problems
• 1) What cost elements are under management control, and what elements are not?
• 2) How should possible bottom-line savings be shared with customers
Cost factors not under Mgmt Control:
• Population served• Fuel price (? – hedging)
– If fuel price rises for all, PCE payment would stay approximately same
Factors under Mgmt Control
• Everything else!– Fuel efficiency– Fuel choice– Nonfuel expenses– Financial Structure– Line loss– Management structure– Load management
Example for Discussion:
• AVEC total PCE payments 2003 = $6.2 million
• Fixed payment set at that level
Automatic Adjustment for change in share of PCE population
• AVEC now has 27% of PCE population
• If AVEC’s population increases by 10%, it’s share of total increases to 29%.
• This increase would result in a new fixed PCE pmt of $6.6 million
All internal cost savings are retained:
• If AVEC reduces fuel consumption by 10%, under current formula they “give back” 45% or $274,000.
• Under fixed payments, they would see the full savings of $637,000
• Savings even more dramatic if they invest in non-diesel generation
Practical Problem 2
• How should fixed PCE payments be apportioned to customers?– Could use current formula within the
utility– If utility promotes load reduction, PCE
retentions might be used to replace lost rates income
Overall Goals of Re-Tooling
• Make best use of current funding• Secure additional funding by
demonstrating innovation and efficiency
• Continue to provide reliable and affordable electric power
We’re all still in this together.
~The End
ReferencesPCE FY00, FY03 statisticsISER/AIDEA Electric Power Statistics, 2004ISER/MAFA Sustainable Utilities in Rural Alaska, 2003