q2 earnings - s23.q4cdn.com€¦ · trucker strike, revenue 1 ~ -1% active reps ~ -3% impacted by...
TRANSCRIPT
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Jan Zijderveld, CEOand
Jamie Wilson, CFO
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS
1
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Non-GAAP Reconciliation
This material will reference certain non-GAAP financial
measures, which we believe to be useful to investors, although they
should not be considered superior to the measures presented in
accordance with GAAP.
A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures
to their comparable GAAP measures is included in the appendix and
in our earnings release, located on the Investor Relations section of
our website.
Note: This material will reference constant-dollar revenue
rates. Foreign currency impact is determined as the difference
between actual growth rates and constant-dollar growth rates. Actual
growth rates including foreign currency impact, are included in our
earnings release, located on the Investor Relations section of our
website.
Forward-Looking Statements
This material contains “forward-looking statements” that are made
pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements relating to
revenue trends, cost savings, annualized tax rate, efforts to
implement new digital strategies, improved representative
engagement and service, product launches and advertising
spend. Because forward-looking statements inherently involve
risks and uncertainties, actual future results may differ materially
from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking
statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not
limited to, the possibility of business disruption, competitive
uncertainties, and general economic and business conditions in
Avon’s markets as well as the other risks detailed in Avon’s filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Avon undertakes
no obligation to update any statements in this material after it is
posted to the Investor Relations section of our website.
Non-GAAP Reconciliationand Forward-Looking Statements
2
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Jan Zijderveld
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS
Opening & Agenda
• Q2 Financial Highlights
• Business Update
• Short Term Fixes
• Regaining Competitive
Momentum
• Summary3
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Review of Q2
Financial Results
Jamie Wilson
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS4
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Q2
As Reported
Like-for-Like
(LFL)
Reportable Segments C$ revenue growth 2% -2%
Reportable Segments GAAP revenue growth -3% -7%
Total Avon gross margin 60.1% 63.4%
Total Avon Adjusted SG&A % of revenue 54.4% 57.6%
Total Avon Adjusted operating margin 5.7% 5.8%
Total Avon Adjusted Diluted EPS ($0.03) ($0.03)
LIKE-FOR-LIKE PROVIDES
COMPARABLE YEAR OVER YEAR
FIGURES THAT EXCLUDE
THE IMPACT OF THE ADOPTION
OF THE NEW ACCOUNTING
STANDARD ON REVENUE
RECOGNITION
Format –The following pages will use Like-for-Like comparisons for Constant $ (C$) revenue and Adjusted non-GAAP information for the quarter
Adjusted Operating Margin Improved 70 bps
LFL Despite Soft Revenue
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Q2 LFL Revenue Declined by 2%
We expect revenue trends to continue to modestly improve through 2018
Revenue management
improved
1. Revenue from Reportable Segments
Note – Reported figures: Constant dollar revenue1 growth = 2%; Active Representatives = -4%;
Average Order = 6%; Ending Representatives = -4%; Price/Mix = 6%; see appendix for reconciliation
-4%Active &
Ending
Reps
+2%Average
Order
+2%Price/Mix
Excluding Brazil
trucker strike,
Revenue1 ~ -1%
Active Reps ~ -3%
Impacted by Brazil Trucker Strike
Revenue1 Growth
-2%Constant
Dollar
6
1
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Q1 C$
Revenue
Growth
Q2 C$
Revenue
Growth
Comments
Brazil (12.4%) (11.2%)Excluding truck strike, Q2 revenue declined by 5%,
underlying challenges continue
Mexico (6.3%) 0.1%Higher average order driven by F&H, improved service,
promotions and communication
Russia (3.7%) (0.5%) Higher average order driven by fragrance
Argentina 19.1% 24.5%Improved revenue growth management,
including inflationary pricing
Philippines (2.7%) 0.4%Revenue stabilized toward the end of Q2 after Q1
stock availability and service issues
Q2 LFL
3 of Top 5 Markets Growing
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Q2 LFL
Adjusted Operating Margin Improved
Tracking to meet 2018 cost saving target of $65M and focused on
generating additional opportunities to fund new H2 growth investments
Note – Reported figures: Q2 2018 F$ Adjusted operating margin = 5.7%; see appendix for reconciliation8
$4M 70 bps
Q2 2017F$ ADJ.OM
ADJ.GM ADJ.SG&A LFL Q2 2018F$ ADJ.OM
5.1% 5.8%100bps
(30bps)
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Q2 LFL
Note – Reported figures: Adj. Income tax provision = ($31.2m); Cash from Operating Activities = ($107m); Adj. EPS = ($0.03)
2018 2017 Variance
Q2 QTD – Adjusted Income Tax Provision ($31.2M) ($34.4M) $3.2M
Q2 YTD – Cash Flows from Operating Activities ($107M) $11M ($118M)
Q2 QTD – Adjusted Diluted EPS ($0.03) ($0.03) $0.00
June 30th – Gross Debt $1.64B $1.89B ($250M)
Balance Sheet Strengthened
by Debt Repayment and Improved Tax
Cash flow affected by
Brazil trucker strike ($30M)
– all cash collected in July
FX Headwind in Q2 $10M
(50bps) on adjusted operating
margin and (4%) on Revenue
On track to deliver 15%
reduction in annualized
tax rate to ~65% for 2018
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Business Update
Jan Zijderveld
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS10
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Brazil a Primary Focus
Service Quality
Performance Culture
Short Term Fixes
1
2
3
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1
Appoint a new General Manager and begin to stabilize H2
Brazil a Primary Focus
• Lost: 1 campaign,
7% Representatives
• Higher Inventory, delayed
collections - all collected in July
• Net impact - LFL revenue down
6%
Q2 Truckers’ Strike
• Improved service
• Launched segmentation model
• H2 sales leader incentives
• Restarted training
• Improved digital tools &
payment methods, credit checks
Re-energize Representatives Stronger Marketing Plans
• 2 new fragrance launches
• Relaunch Encanto & Sun-care
• New mascara launch
• E-brochure
• Increase media by $10M
12
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Trained distribution centers
and tight KPI monitoring
12%
3%
Week 1 Week 11
Launched reinforced &
compartmentalized boxesWorking to improve demand
forecasting process
98%
99%
Making good progress – measured by Representatives
ACTION: Focus on improving
Fashion & Home forecasting
2 Service Quality Step Up
93%
96%
Week 1 Week 11
Beauty F&H
Week 1 Week 11
Over 25,000 calls
to Representatives
in 9 weeks
Reductionin Damaged Products
Reductionin Damaged Boxes
ImprovedFill Rate
30% reduction
in 11 weeks
13
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3
New Ways of Working
X-functional sprint teams
Leverage 3rd parties to accelerate innovation
Execute with Speed
Innovation time cut by >50%
E-Brochure <3 months
Campaign planning time <50%
Performance Rigor
Accountability for monthly market performance
improved reporting & scorecards
Institute a Performance Culture
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Regaining Competitive
Momentum
Reinvest in Representatives
Strengthen the Core Innovation Plans
Do More Innovation, Faster
Accelerate Digital
Injecting Talent & Capabilities
New Ways of Working
1
2
3
4
5
6
15
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DifferentiateNew Segmentation Model
MotivateH2 Growth Incentives
TrainLaunch New Sales Academy
• Aligning and activate the
organization around the
segmented approach
• Differentiated solutions by
segment: tools, training,
compensation and service
Massive energizing
events in all countries
1 Re-ignite and Re-energize our Representatives
Brazil
UK
Philippines
Invest to train 500,000 Representatives in H2
16
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ColorNew elastic mascara
Investing additional $30M in advertising behind the core in H2
New Male
Segno
Fragrance
Big & Extreme Mascara
first to market proprietary
stretch technology
Globally Scaled Launches
FragranceTwo new global launches
Skin CareNew technology eye booster
2
New Avon Life
Colour designed
by Kenzo Takada
Premium eye wrinkle
booster now available
by Avon
Strengthen The Core Innovation Plans
17
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Global
launch
20 countries
UK & Central Europe
Launch in
major market
Cutting cycle time in half
3 Do more Innovation, Faster
Over 200 new products launching in H2 in addition to original plan
Lip Tattoo23 Weeks
Ultimate Gold Mask23 Weeks
Korean Beauty22 Weeks
18
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What is it? H2 ScalingLaunched it Fast
• Digital brochure via social media
• Free for Representatives,
expands reach to more consumers
• Customizable – with real time
promotions
• 26 countries in 3 months
• 70 versions tested for
learning & optimization
• Expand to all markets
• Drive Representative adoption
First generation e-brochure in less than 3 months
4 Step change Digital
Significantly expands reach to consumers beyond the paper brochure
19
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Align Top LeadersTo energize around change
New Digital& Marketing Leaders
New General Managers ~50% of revenue refreshed
Global Leader Meeting
130 Top Leaders
To Re-ignite Market Growth
Chief Digital OfficerBenedetto Conversano
Global Sales Organization LeaderRichard Pinnock
Global Brand Marketing – Skincare and
Personal CareAnna Chokina
Global Brand Marketing – Fashion &
HomeElena Degtyareva
New head of Forecast & Planning Rob Lowndes
New head of Investor RelationsAmy Greene
General Manager Asia PacificBill Rahn, seasoned direct selling executive
General Manager Italy and MediterraneanMarco Brandolini, significant direct selling
experience
General Manager RussiaAnna Yarvits, strong track record in business
transformation
General Manager BrazilTo be announced soon
5
Injecting capabilities to drive performance
Injecting New Talent & Capabilities
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• Focused manufacturing network
• Review under-utilized production,
logistics and office facilities
• Embracing alliances & partners
• Reduced complexity
• Strategic use of partners to increase
pace of innovation
• Flexible operating model to adapt
to market demands
• Move more activities closer to the
markets
Smarter use of assets, external alliances and simplification
OptimizeAssets
MoreOpen Culture
Streamline Systems& Process
6 New Ways of Working & Simplify
21
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Brazil
Focus
Fix Service
Quality
Performance
Culture
Re-Invest in
Representatives
Strengthen
Core PlansMore & Faster
Innovation
Accelerate
Digital
What’s Different?
New Ways
of Working
Sharper
Strategy
Bolder
Moves
Performance
Culture
22
Injecting New
Talent
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Investor DaySeptember 21st
Investor Day
OPEN UP
AVON
Friday, September 21, 2018
9:00 a.m. – 1 p.m.
New York
If you have questions, please contact
SAVE THE DATE
23
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Appendix
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS24
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444
920
100
376
Cash & CashEquivalents
Q2 '18
1X Cash &Timing - collected
in July
Available CreditFacility
AvailableLiquidity
Maintain strong liquidity and focus on debt reduction
Liquidity
Q2
Liquidity Remains Strong after
Debt Prepayment
1H17 CfO Op Profit Non CashAdj.
Timingand one-
timepayments
WorkingCapital
Other 1H18 CfO
($107m)$11m
FY cash conversion levels are expected to be similar to 2017
Cash From Operations
Timing temporary
– reverses in Q3
Increased inventory for operational
reasons to protect service – expect
to normalize in Q3
2 August 2018
Q2 EARNINGS25
1
2
1. June 30 balance lowered by $249M due to costs associated with prepaying 2019 bond
2. $400M secured revolving credit facility less outstanding letters of credit
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Q2 Non-GAAP Reconciliations
26
Increased inventory for operational reasons to
protect service – expect to normalize in Q3
($110m)$11m
Cash From Operations
Timing temporary
– reverses in Q3
12
One-time return of Brazilian IPI deposit
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Q2 Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Impact of change in revenue recognition standard
27
Increased inventory for operational reasons to
protect service – expect to normalize in Q3
($110m)$11m
Cash From Operations
Timing temporary
– reverses in Q3
12
One-time return of Brazilian IPI deposit
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Q2 Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Impact of change in revenue recognition standard, continued
28
Increased inventory for operational reasons to
protect service – expect to normalize in Q3
($110m)$11m
Cash From Operations
Timing temporary
– reverses in Q3
12
One-time return of Brazilian IPI deposit
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Q2 Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Impact of change in revenue recognition standard, continued
29
Increased inventory for operational reasons to
protect service – expect to normalize in Q3
($110m)$11m
Cash From Operations
Timing temporary
– reverses in Q3
12
One-time return of Brazilian IPI deposit
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30