purpose of second decade project, 2007 planning …...training, 2007 analysis 4 cluster analysis...

1

Planning for Hawai‘i’s FutureSecond Decade, 2010–2020

Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012

Purpose of Second Decade Project, 2007

• To identify the higher education needs

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

of the State of Hawai‘i in the next decade

• To determine the relative priority of state higher education needs by g yregion of the state

EVPAA Jul 2012 2

Second Decade Revisited, 2012

• To check our projections relative to


2010 Census data

• To review our outcomes and measures and revise as needed

• To measure our progress on• To measure our progress on performance indicators

EVPAA Jul 2012 3

A System of CampusesUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

• Geographicallyaccessible entry points

• Flexibility for students to move within a system

• Cohesive response to stateCohesive response to state needs

• Coordinated leadership for resource acquisition and allocation

EVPAA Jul 2012 4

2

State of Hawai‘i by Geographic Region


Kaua‘i

Maui

WindwardNorth Shore

EVPAA Jul 2012 5

West Hawai‘i

East Hawai‘i

Wai‘anae

‘Ewa

East O‘ahu

CentralO‘ahu

Planning Context, 2007 Analysis

• Population growth (# & %)


• High school graduation rates• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS, bach)• College going rate (2-yr, 4-yr)• Workforce shortages

EVPAA Jul 2012 6

Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & Training, 2007 Analysis


Factors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau

Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Low Low Low Med Med High MedHigh

Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Low Low Low Med High Med Med

Proj HS Grad (%) Med Med VeryHigh High Low Low Med High Med Low

Income Low Med High VeryHigh

VeryHigh Med Very

High Med Med High

Wrkfrc Particip % High High Med High VeryHigh High High Low Low Med

Ed Attain (<HS) Low Med Med High Low Low High VeryHigh High High

Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med Med Med Med

EVPAA Jul 2012 7

g

Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med Med

Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med VeryHigh Med Med Med Very

High High Low

Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Med VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh High Low High Very

High High

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

RELATIVE NEED 31 31 55 59 45 31 43 49 45 39

Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & Training, 2007 Analysis

4 Cluster Analysis


55

59

43

45

45

49

East Hawai‘i

North Shore

Maui

West Hawai‘i

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

39

31

31

31

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

Kaua‘i

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 8

3

Wai‘anae Education Center

Palamanui

Updated Planning DataState Population

Total Population, 2010UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Kaua‘i

HonoluluState of Hawai‘i = 1,360,301

67 091

>200,000175,000–200,000

Maui

Hawai‘i

67,09158,936

48,519

181,448

180,716

351,692

131,896

154,924

EVPAA Jul 2012 11Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2010

, ,100,000–174,999<100,000

Hawai i

78,707106,372

Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training

Based on Change in Population (#), 2000–2010

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #1

26,683

42,596

18,197

18,205

19,685

8,628Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

West Hawai‘i

East O‘ahu

Maui

‘Ewa

Statewide:+148 764

6,260

6,973

-649

2,186

Windward

North Shore

Wai‘anae

Central O‘ahu


EVPAA Jul 2012 12

+148,764

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

4


Change in Population (%), 2000–2010


30.1%

30.7%

20.6%

20.8%

14.8%

14.8%

Wai‘anae

Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

Maui

West Hawai‘i

‘Ewa

-0.5%

3.9%

4.0%

5.9%

Windward

North Shore

Central O‘ahu

East O‘ahu


EVPAA Jul 2012 13

Statewide:+12.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

Change in Hawai‘i Populationby Age Group, 2000–2010

68,601


6,058

17,412 14,174

22,786

34,537

6,058

-14,804<15 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+

Age Group

EVPAA Jul 2012 14Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

Projected Change in Population,2010–2020


+8.9%

+19.3%

+5.3%

+12.7%

+16.8%

EVPAA Jul 2012 15Source: DBED&T

State ofHawai‘i

Hawai‘iCounty

HonoluluCounty

Kaua‘iCounty

MauiCounty

Projected Population Growth, Age 65+,State & County, 2010–2020

+66.1% +66.7%


+44.9%

66 %

+36.7%

+57.9%

State ofHawai‘i

Hawai‘iCounty

HonoluluCounty

Kaua‘iCounty

MauiCounty

EVPAA Jul 2012 16Source: DBED&T: Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawai‘i to 2040, March 2012

5

Projected Hawai‘i High School Graduates,2011–12 Through 2021–22

13,608 13,406 13,390 13,114 13,005 12,823 13,030 12,686 13,029 13,482 13,60615,000


12,686

6,000

9,000

12,000

77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77%76% 76% 76%

75%

23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%24%24% 24%25%

0

3,000

2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2022

Public Private

EVPAA Jul 2012 17Source: “Knocking at the College Door, Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity,

1992 to 2022,” March 2008, WICHE.



Projected Hawai‘i Public High School Graduates, 2011–2022

21,057

21,246

15,489

18,610

8,453

11,635

Windward

East Hawai‘i

Maui

‘Ewa

Central O‘ahu

East O‘ahu

Statewide:

4,749

5,675

6,156

6,588

Wai‘anae

West Hawai‘i

North Shore

Kaua‘i


EVPAA Jul 2012 18

Statewide:119,658

Source: OEVPAA/P; internal forecast model; Hawai‘i DOE for public school enrollment data.

Updated Planning DataPer Capita Income &

Workforce Participation

Hawai‘i’s Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average, 1960–2010


100.7%

108.1%106.1%

109.4%

99.7%

105.7%

87 5%

Current

PCPI Adjusted

80.6%

86.5% 84.8%87.5%

79.8%

84.6%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

EVPAA Jul 2012 20

HI=125%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year average. Historical data: Table S3.

6



St t id

Per Capita Personal Income, 2010 Inflation Adjusted Dollars

$23,180

$21,846

$17,717

$27,817

$27,622

$28,378Central O‘ahu

‘Ewa

Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

North Shore

Wai‘anae Statewide:$28,882

$29,927

$34,083

$32,497

$30,844

East O‘ahu

Windward

West Hawai‘i

Maui


EVPAA Jul 2012 21Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year estimates.


Workforce Participation, Age 16+


64.4%

62.5%

60.6%

67.6%

67.6%

67.0%

Central O‘ahu

Windward

Kaua‘i

East O‘ahu

Wai‘anae

East Hawai‘i Statewide:66.8%

68.2%

70.6%

70.3%

70.2%

‘Ewa

West Hawai‘i

Maui

North Shore


EVPAA Jul 2012 22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates

Updated Planning DataEducational Attainment



Population Age 18–24 with <HS Diploma

19.1%

9.9%

11.1%

11.7%

14.6%

8.2%East O‘ahu

East Hawai‘i

Kaua‘i

Wai‘anae

Maui

West Hawai‘i

Statewide:9.0%

6.8%

7.7%

8.0%

4.3%North Shore

Central O‘ahu

‘Ewa

Windward



7



Population Age 18–64 with Only a HS Diploma

50.0%

32.9%

33.1%

34.6%

36.6%

31.4%‘Ewa

Kaua‘i

Maui

West Hawai‘i

North Shore

Wai‘anae

Statewide:29.4%

29.7%

30.5%

22.9%

25.9%

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

East Hawai‘i



Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System


65

70

46.3

40

45

50

55

60

UH System Going RatesFall 2011 = 38.4%

EVPAA Jul 2012 26

Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.

Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).

31.7

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester

Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System and State of Hawai‘i


65

70

46.3

62.7

40

45

50

55

60


Total Hawai‘i Going Rates

EVPAA Jul 2012 27

31.7

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester



Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System, State of Hawai‘i, and the Nation


National Going Rates 63.365

70


Total Hawai‘i Going Rates46.3

62.7

40

45

50

55

60

EVPAA Jul 2012 28

31.7

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester



8



Statewide:

UH 2-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011

15.8%

20.7%

20.7%

26.1%

25.1%

23.2%

‘Ewa

Windward

North Shore

East O‘ahu

Wai‘anae

West Hawai‘i Statewide:25.6%

32.2%

32.2%

30.6%

29.3%

Central O‘ahu

East Hawai‘i

Kaua‘i

Maui


EVPAA Jul 2012 29Source: UH IRAO



UH 4-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011

5.9%

9.1%

8.9%

8.0%

7.4%

10.1%Windward

Kaua‘i

‘Ewa

North Shore

Maui

Wai‘anaeStatewide:12.8%

10.3%

17.1%

16.5%

15.0%

East O‘ahu

East Hawai‘i

Central O‘ahu

West Hawai‘i


EVPAA Jul 2012 30Source: UH IRAO

Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level (2008–10)


2,663

1,576

886

1,761

576

EVPAA Jul 2012 31

-483

Less than High School

High School Graduate

Some College, No Degree

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or Professional

Degree

Source: NCHEMS / U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Surveys (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Updated Planning DataWorkforce Shortages

9

Projected Job Openings, 2008–18UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

20,540

13,100

6 670

2,959 Non-UH(14%)

UH

9,628(47%)

6,670

Job Openings(Avg Annual 2008–18)

Needing Education Beyond High School

Avg Annual Undergraduate Degrees & Certificates

Awarded(FY07 to FY11)

EVPAA Jul 2012 33

Note: Average annual UG degrees & certificates include certificates (1yr+, associate, & bachelor’s degrees.Source: Job Openings: Georgetown University Center of Education and Workforce,

Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, June 2010Degrees: NCES College Navigator, IPEDS, and IRAO.

(32%)

Hawai‘i: Emerging Opportunities

Enterprise Honolulu Projections:


• Life Science / Biotechnology• Information Technology• Telecommunications• Film & Digital Media• Diversified Agriculture

EVPAA Jul 2012 34Source: Enterprise Honolulu

Hawai‘i’s Demand Occupations

Occupation Annual OpeningsBachelor’s degree or higher


g gElementary school teachersGeneral / operations managersSecondary school teachersAccountants / auditorsProperty / real estate / community association managersNetwork systems / data communications

330300300170110

90Network systems / data communications analysts

90

Associate degree or higherRegistered Nurses 330

EVPAA Jul 2012 35Note: Annual openings as of 2008Source: Research and Statistics Office, Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, February 2012

Projected Annual Vacancies in Shortage Areas Statewide, 2006–17 and Total UH Output, 2007–11

630 Teachers (Elem/Sec)


330

252 271310 311

341 Nurses (RN)

370 418 389 349 424

Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

252


9078 81

Computing (Bach)

EVPAA Jul 2012 36

40

6678

57

81


10

Summary of Planning Factors

• Population growth (# and %)


• High school graduates• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS,

bachelor’s)• College going rate (2-yr, 4-yr)• Workforce shortages

EVPAA Jul 2012 37



Factors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau

Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Med Low Low High High Very

High MedHigh High

Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Med Low Low High Very

High High Med

Proj HS Grad (#) VeryHigh

VeryHigh High Low Low Med Med Low High Low

Per Capita Income Low Med High VeryHigh

VeryHigh Low Very

High Low Med High

Wrkfrc Particip % High Med Low High Med Med High Low Low Med

Ed Attain (<HS) Med Med Med High Low Med High VeryHigh High High

Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med High High High

EVPAA Jul 2012 38

g

Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med Med

Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med High Med Med Low VeryHigh Low Low

Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Low High VeryHigh High Med Low Med High High

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh

RELATIVE NEED 37 31 49 57 39 29 45 47 47 41

4 Cluster Analysis4 Cluster Analysis



2007 Analysis 2012 Analysis

East Hawai‘i

North Shore

Maui

West Hawai‘i

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

West Hawai‘i

Maui

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

Kaua‘i


Windward

Central O‘ahu

East O‘ahu

North Shore


EVPAA Jul 2012 39

Public Higher Education Agenda

1. Increase the educational capital of the state


Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative

Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative2. Address underserved regions/populations

3. Expand workforce development

4 Diversify the economy

Renovate to Innovate

4. Diversify the economy

5. Renew and expand infrastructure

EVPAA Jul 2012 40

11

Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative

Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

“Increase student participation and completion,


“55% of Hawai‘i’s working age adults tohave a 2- or 4-year degree by 2025.”

p p p ,particularly Native Hawaiians, low-income students,

and those from underserved regions”

EVPAA Jul 2012 42

“Increase graduates by 25% by 2015”President Greenwood


P-20 GOAL: INCREASE 2- OR 4-YEAR DEGREE ATTAINMENT OF WORKING AGE ADULTS (25 TO 64) TO 55% BY 2025


43% 43%42% 43%

42%

55.0%

46.7%

Goal

Current Trend

WORKING AGE ADULTS (25 TO 64) TO 55% BY 2025

CumulativeDegree Gap:60,791 degree holders

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

EVPAA Jul 2012 43

2025

Source: NCHEMS & U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates, 2006 to 2010

UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned



GOAL: INCREASE 3–6% PER YEAR

7,996 8,084 8,2918,988

7,835

10,507

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual GoalEVPAA Jul 2012 44

12



Increase Student Completion

EVPAA Jul 2012 45

Addressing Need Via Distance Education

1 078 794 1 104 494 1 108 4991,200,000

Undergraduate Credits Taken


Addressing Need ViaDistance Education

963,035 953,468 964,746 1,004,9631,078,794 1,104,494 1,108,499

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000 14.2% 5.6% 9.7% 9.1% 10.4%

12.1% 13.3%

0

200,000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Fiscal Year

Non-Distance Ed Distance EdEVPAA Jul 2012 46Source: IRAO Socad, Census

225


Number of Technology-Assisted Distance/Distributed Learning Classes by Offering Campus

Addressing Need ViaDistance Education

135

80

126 123

225

69

101

63

174185

ea g C asses by O e g Ca pus

1737

49

3

46

5

40

69 63

6

61

40

UHM UHH UHWO HAW HON KAP KAU LEE MAU WIN

Fall 2008 Fall 2011

EVPAA Jul 2012 47Source: IRAO Socad, Census


“To position the UH as one of the


To position the UH as one of the world’s foremost indigenous-

serving universities”

EVPAA Jul 2012 48

Hawai‘i Papa o Ke Ao

13




Degree Attainment ofNative Hawaiians at UH

960 979

1,192

1,609

880

1,439

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


% Native Hawaiians of UH System Enrollment


Native Hawaiian Enrollment at UH

13.6%

23.2%

2001 2006 2011

EVPAA Jul 2012 50



“Increase student participation andIncrease student participation and completion, particularly Native Hawaiians,

low-income students, and those from underserved regions”

EVPAA Jul 2012 51

$44m of Institutional Aid Awarded in 2010–11



UH Disbursement of Pell Grants

17,262 $9018,000

GOAL: INCREASE 5% PER YEAR $mil

8,6709,766

14,111

$28 4

$49.0

$61.1

11,701

$

$45

$60

$75

9,000

12,000

15,000

Number of recipients

Total Pell disbursed

EVPAA Jul 2012 52

$22.7$28.4

$30.6

$0

$15

$30

0

3,000

6,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Recipients Actual Pell Disbursed Actual Recipients Goal Pell Disbursed Goal

Total Pell disbursed

14


Increase Student Participation

EVPAA Jul 2012 53

Over 14,000 students from the Classes of 2013, 2014, and 2015 STEPPED UP


GOAL: INCREASE 3% PER YEAR


Going Rates of Hawai‘i High Schoolsto the UH System

37.8 39.0 38.0 38.4

34.7

42.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015




“Contribute to the state’s


Contribute to the state s economy and provide a solid

return on investment”

EVPAA Jul 2012 56

15


UH Extramural Fund Support

GOAL: INCREASE 3% PER YEAR$ million

$368$414

$452$489

$359

$442

$ million

EVPAA Jul 2012 57

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual Goal

• A vibrant economy


Goal: Build a $Billion+ Research Industry in Hawai‘i

y• High-paying jobs• Clean, green

industries• An entrepreneurial• An entrepreneurial

culture• Bring and keep our

keiki homeEVPAA Jul 2012 58

Astronomy/space


Strengthen Our Areas of Excellence

• Astronomy/space sciences

• Ocean, earth sciences

• Health sciences

59

Enhance Emerging Strengths



• Clean energy• New agriculture• Cancer research

Build Up New AreasBuild Up New Areas• Advanced informatics and cyberinfrastructure• Health sciences, obesity, diabetes, etc…

EVPAA Jul 2012 60

16

• Double our research initiative over next


The Plan

Double our research initiative over next 5–8 years

• Attract more than 50 new world-class scientists

• Form crucial relationships among private sector, state, and international partners

EVPAA Jul 2012 61

• Approximately $10–12 million a year


Investment / Return on Investment

Approximately $10 12 million a year

• The ROI would be thousands of new jobs in the state, new discoveries, new supporting businesses and opportunities

EVPAA Jul 2012 62


UH Patents, Disclosures, & LicensesGoal: Increase 5–15% Per Year

14U.S. Patents Issued

18Licenses/Options Signed

14

6 7

13

7

3

911 10 9

2

FY01 FY06 FY11

73

1815

17

11

6

1

7 8 9

FY01 FY06 FY11

EVPAA Jul 2012 63

33 3426

44 4861

4254

41 42 39

FY01 FY06 FY11

Invention Disclosures


“Address critical workforce shortages

Two Initiatives That MustSucceed Together

Address critical workforce shortages and prepare students for effective

engagement and leadership”

EVPAA Jul 2012 64

17



UH Degrees in STEM Fields

1,705 1,733 1,720

1,963

1,633

2,190

EVPAA Jul 2012 65

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual Goal


Triple Bottom Line



Triple Bottom Line• Create Hawai‘i construction jobs• Improve facilities to compete• Leverage funds to increase RTRF

EVPAA Jul 2012 67


Renew and Expand Infrastructure

Major Construction Projects, 2009 to Present $184.7mCancer Research Center $120.0m

Edmondson Renovation $15.3m

Biomedical Sciences Bldg. Court B renovation $1.5m

Bilger Complex Air Conditioning System Upgrades $5.7m

Institute for Astronomy, R/R HVAC Equipment $2.6m

Biomedical Sciences Building, R/R Cage Washing $2.9m

CTAHR Renovation $2.9m

Biomedical Sciences Building R/R HVAC Equipment $5 3m

EVPAA Jul 2012 68

Biomedical Sciences Building, R/R HVAC Equipment $5.3m

C-MORE $21.0m

Webster Hall $7.5m

Major Design Projects, 2009 to Present $126.0mCollege of Pharmacy (UH Hilo) $38.0m

Snyder Renovation $40.5m

Pacific Health Research Center $47.5m

18

Summary

• Data reinforce priorities


• Initiatives on target

• Initiatives reinforce each other

• Need to update & extend performance measures

• 2013–2015 Biennium Budget proposal needs to support initiatives

EVPAA Jul 2012 69

Planning for Hawai‘i’s FutureSecond Decade, 2010–2020

Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012

purpose of second decade project, 2007 planning …...training, 2007 analysis 4 cluster analysis...

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