private investor sunday times nov 1 2015

1
MONEY 10 THIS IS FAR FROM A COLLAPSE Goodbody economist Dermot O’Leary on the 1.3% rise in house prices nationally THE BEST LOANS Lender Rate 1 Monthly payment Contact Bank of Ireland 7.50% 2 €398.44 0818 200 334 KBC Bank 9.80% 2 €418.96 1800 51 52 53 AIB Bank 9.99% €420.56 1890 724 724 Ulster Bank 10.30% €423.37 1890 303 004 1 Based on €20,000 borrowed over five years ²Current account customers only HOME ENERGY Company Fuel Av. Annual Bill¹ Energia Electricity only €1,038 Flogas Gas only €798 Energia Dual fuel €1,850 ¹Online billing and payment by direct debit required. Prices are based on average annual use of 13,800kWh gas, 5,300kWh electricity Source: Bonkers.ie MORTGAGES BEST FIXED RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERS Institution Rate Term Contact Mortgage Store 3.50% 1 2 years mortgagestore.ie Ulster Bank 3.20% 2, 3 3 years 1800 303 004 Ulster Bank 3.50% 2 5 years 1800 303 004 Ulster Bank 3.60% 2 7 years 1800 303 004 1 20% deposit 2 40% deposit 3 Min €250,000 BEST FIXED RATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERS Institution Rate Term Contact AIB Bank 3.60% 1 2 years 1890 724 724 KBC Bank 3.60% 1, 2 2 years 1800 51 52 53 AIB Bank 3.65% 1 3 years 1890 724 724 KBC Bank 3.65% 1, 2 3 years 1800 51 52 53 1 10% deposit 2 New customers only with KBC current accounts BEST VARIABLE RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERS Institution Rate Deposit Contact KBC Bank 3.25% 1 50% 1800 51 52 53 EBS 3.30% 50% 1850 654321 AIB Bank 3.35% 50% 1890 724 724 Haven 3.35% 50% broker 1 New customers only with KBC current accounts BEST VARIABLE RATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERS Institution Rate Deposit Contact KBC Bank 3.65% 1 10% 1800 51 52 53 EBS 3.70% 10% 1850 654321 AIB Bank 3.75% 10% 1890 724 724 1 New customers only with KBC current accounts HEALTH INSURANCE TOP HEALTH INSURANCE PLANS Insurer Plan Monthly cost Contact Public hospitals — basic cover GloHealth Base Lite €32.83 1 1890 781 781 VHI Start Plan €38.35 1890 444 444 Laya Assure Vitality €42.83 1890 700 890 Private hospitals — semi-private room GloHealth Net Most 100 €81.25 1890 781 781 VHI PMI 40 15 €77.95 1890 444 444 Laya Simply Connect €85.75 2 1890 700 890 1 No direct settlement on this plan 2 Includes day-to-day cover Prices are for individual adults and reflect changes to tax relief. Laya rates include a 3% charge for monthly payments Source: TotalHealthCover.ie CURRENT ACCOUNTS Institution ATM fee POS 1 fee Quarterly fee Ulster Bank €0.00 €0.00 €12.00 Permanent TSB €0.00 €0.00 €12.00 KBC Bank €0.30 €0.00 €6.00 Bank of Ireland €0.25 €0.10 €5.00 AIB Bank €0.35 €0.20 €4.50 1Point-of-sale or debit card purchases CREDIT CARDS BEST BALANCE TRANSFERS Card Disc Rate Until Contact Bank of Ireland 0.00% 7 months 0818 200 334 KBC Bank 0.00% 6 months 1800 51 52 53 Permanent TSB 0.00% 6 months 1890 500 172 BEST STANDARD RATES Card Rate Interest free Contact AIB Click 13.60% 1 56 days aib.ie Bank of Ireland 17.30% 2 56 days 0818 200 334 KBC Bank 18.25% 56 days 1800 51 52 53 1 AIB internet banking customers only 2Annual fee of €76.18 Source: Bonkers.ie Best Buys The finance bill contains one fresh morsel of good news for PAYE taxpayers with a doubling of the small benefit relief, meaning employers will be able to reward staff, tax-free, with vouchers of up to €500. The bill is unlikely to be passed before the new year, so the relief may not be reflected in Christmas bonuses. Still, even at the current threshold of €250, it is one of the few perks that remain outside the taxman’s grasp. We look at how it works and what other perks are out there. HOW CAN MY EMPLOYER GET THE SMALL BENEFIT RELIEF? Small benefit relief can be applied to a single, one-off bonus made each year to employees. The bonus cannot be made through cash or cheques, and so is commonly made by way of a gift voucher. The relief applies to only one bonus. If a company awards an employer a bonus gift voucher of €100 in May, then any further vouchers will be liable to tax and PRSI. Where a benefit exceeds the threshold (currently €250, soon to be €500) the full value of the benefit is subject to income tax and PRSI, not just the excess. If the employee also receives staff discounts, where the goods or services are provided at below the cost of those goods and services to the employer, the employee cannot also avail of the small benefits concession in the same year. Staff discounts are not taxable. WHAT OTHER BENEFITS ARE TAX-FREE? It is a short list. Christmas parties or special events such as sports days are not liable for tax as long as the expense is reasonable. Contributions by an employer to the staff social club are also tax-free, if they are reasonable and membership is open to all staff. Free or subsidised food from a staff canteen is also tax-exempt, as are an annual medical check-up and car park facilities. Course fees, covered directly or by a refunded payment, will not be liable for tax as long as the course is relevant to the firm’s business. A firm can pay a subscription to a professional body so long as membership is relevant to the business. Newspapers and periodicals provided free to employees are also not a taxable benefit so long as the material is relevant to the business of the company. WHAT ABOUT TRAVEL EXPENSES? The cycle-to-work scheme and travel passes are tax- efficient rather than tax-free, yet each can be attractive. In both cases, the employer pays for the bike or travel pass upfront, and the employee pays the employer back by way of salary sacrifice. This means the employee is paying for the benefit from their pre-tax rather than after-tax income. In the cycle scheme, an employer can buy a bike and accessories up to the value of €1,000. It can only be used once in a five-year period. For a top-rate taxpayer, the savings on a Dublin Bus & Rail annual ticket is €738. Details at taxsaver.ie. WHAT ABOUT THE CARRIAGE CLOCK FOR RETIRING STAFF? Long service awards are tax-free, if the employee has worked for the firm for 20 years or more and the gift is “a tangible article of reasonable cost”. In other words, not cash or vouchers. The value of these awards cannot exceed €50 per year of service, otherwise the entire amount will be taxable. CAN THE COMPANY PAY FOR MY PHONE AND BROADBAND? Mobile phones and laptops can be provided to employees so long as the employer retains ownership and any private use by the employee is incidental. An employer can meet the cost of a broadband connection, provided for business use, again if any private use is merely incidental. TOP TIPS If you work from home, you’ll be entitled to a tax-free payment of €3.20 per day from your employer to cover electricity and heating costs. This applies to those who bring work home in the evening or at weekends. It does not preclude the worker from making expense claims for above this amount. IAN CARBERY MONEY MADE EASY YOUR FIVE MINUTE GUIDE TO... TAX-FREE WORK PERKS SAVINGS EASY ACCESS Institution Rate Min deposit Contact RaboDirect 1.25% 1 €1 rabodirect.ie KBC Bank 1.05% 2 €3,000 1800 51 52 53 Nationwide UK 1.01% 3 €2,000 1800 800 310 1 0.5% over €50,000. 2 0.5% over €100,000 3 Six free withdrawals NOTICE ACCOUNTS Institution Rate Notice Contact RaboDirect 1.45% 1 90 days rabodirect.ie RaboDirect 1.25% 1 30 days rabodirect.ie Nationwide UK 1.02% 2 30 days 1800 800 310 1 Min €1 2 Min €2.000 DIRT FREE Institution Rate Term Contact State Savings 2.26% 10 years 1850 30 50 60 State Savings 1.24% 5.5 years 1850 30 50 60 State Savings 0.99% 4 years 1850 30 50 60 FIXED RATES Institution Annual Rate Term Contact KBC Bank 1.20% 1 14 months 1800 51 52 53 KBC Bank 1.15% 1 12 months 1800 51 52 53 KBC Bank 1.10% 1 18 months 1800 51 52 53 1 Min €3,000 MONTHLY SAVERS Institution Rate Max monthly Contact Nationwide UK 3.00% €1,000 1800 800 310 EBS 3.00% €1,000 1850 654321 KBC Bank 2.00% €1,000 1800 51 52 53 A proud tradition can be a source of strength for a family, a com- munity, or a business, but it can also be a millstone for its custodians. Last year, I decided that CRH, the Irish building materials company, was weighed down by its proud tradition, so I sold my shares. I’m wondering now if it’s time to buy some back. I bought CRH in May 2006 at €27 a share. The dividend for the year was 52 cents, so the dividend yield was under 2%. This was less than I could have earned elsewhere but CRH had a proud tradition of increasing its dividend every year for more than 20 years, and I was hoping for more of the same. Things started promisingly. The divi- dend for 2007 was increased by more than 30%, to 68c a share. It was increased again for 2008, this time by just a single cent, to 69c a share, but by now the recession was approaching its nadir and CRH, as a major player in the construction industry, was suffering. On the day it announced the higher div- idend for 2008, it also asked shareholders for extra money by way of a “rights issue”. We had the peculiar situation that it was giving money to shareholders with one hand and asking for some back with the other. Why did it not bite the bullet and cut DIARY OF A PRIVATE INVESTOR the dividend? Was it a reluctance to break with the proud tradition? It was a two for seven rights issue, meaning that I could buy two extra shares for every seven shares I already held. The cost of each additional share was just €8.40, considerably less than the €15.065 share price ruling at the time. The “special offer” was being funded with our own money, so the price had to fall to €13.58 immediately afterwards. (The numerically minded can check the numbers, based on the fact that every 7 shares I owned before- hand, plus twice €8.40, should be equal in value to the 9 shares I owned immediately afterwards). Since then, the dividend has been main- tained at 62.5c a share. Technically, this is marginally higher than the 69c dividend that applied before the rights issue, so the proud tradition lives on, but at a cost. In 2010 and 2013, CRH had to dip into reserves to pay the dividend as profits in those years were less than the cost of the dividend. There was also some severe cost-cutting during this period. In April 2014 I decided that CRH’s pre- occupation with maintaining the dividend was not good for the business. I sold my shares at €21.49. This was less than the €27 they cost me in the first place, but my loss was mitigated, firstly by the dividends received in the meantime, secondly by the profits on the €8.40 rights issue shares, and thirdly by my decision to opt for scrip dividends, shares instead of cash, on a number of occasions. Scrip dividends are another device aimed at persuading share- holders to reinvest in the business. For example, instead of taking the October 2013 dividend in cash, when the price was €17.85, I succumbed to the lure of additional shares at the discount price of €15.79. I was lucky in the timing of my decision to sell: the price fell from €21.49 at which I sold in April 2014 to less than €16 four months later. More recently, the market has looked more favourably on CRH. The company has agreed two poten- CRH is back on the right track but still carrying too many risks and unknowns for me to invest in the building materials giant just now CRH may again do me proud but not yet The company has divested itself of its cumbersome traditions and has struck potentially transformative deals but I will wait a bit before diving back in SIMON DAWSON tially transformative deals in 2015. The first was a by-product of the merger of two of its competitors, Lafarge of France and Holcim of Switzerland. The competition authori- ties approved the merger but only on con- dition that the merged entity sell some of its businesses. CRH bought them, presum- ably at a knockdown price given the forced nature of the sale. The second potentially transformative deal is the proposed acquisition of a Californian glazing company. The total cost of the two acquisitions is more than €7.5bn, a lot of money in anyone’s language. Money for the acquisitions came partly from issuing €1.6bn of shares and the balance from extra borrowings and retained cash. The share price, now hovering around €25, reflects this newfound optimism. The dividend is still 62.5c a share, so the dividend yield is about 2.5%. A yield this low is only acceptable if there are good prospects for dividends to grow in future. Profits for 2014 were just 78.9c a share,which is less than 30% more than the cost of the dividend. Assuming that the directors’ long-term goal is to pay 50% of profits in dividends and to reinvest the other 50%, profitswill have to increase to about €1.30 a share before the dividend can be increased. Profits of 130c a share may seem a long way from last year’s 78.9c, but the recent acquisitions could work wonders for earn- ings, probably not in 2015 but definitely in 2016 and beyond, when the management should be able to realise savings from streamlining the various businesses. Some analysts are forecasting that earnings per share in 2017 will be more than double their 2014 levels. On the other hand, there are risks, and lots of them. One is the high level of debt (around €10 per share) and the associated interest cost. The challenge of integrating the various businesses carries execution risk and operational risk is also higher because CRH is now so much bigger than before. CRH may no longer be weighed down by its proud tradition, but there are too many unknowns and too many risks for my liking. I have therefore decided to pass for now. Colm Fagan is an active private investor. He is a retired actuary and a non- executive director of a number of financial institutions. The purpose of this column is to demystify the world of stocks and shares by recounting one person’s adventures in this world. It does not purport to give advice. Please seek professional advice before making any big financial decision. COLM FAGAN

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Page 1: Private Investor Sunday Times Nov 1 2015

MONE

Y

1 0

THIS IS FAR FROM A COLLAPSEGoodbody economist Dermot O’Leary on the

1.3% rise in house prices nationally

THE BEST LOANSLender Rate 1 Monthly

paymentContact

Bank of Ireland 7.50%2 €398.44 0818 200 334KBC Bank 9.80%2 €418.96 1800 51 52 53AIB Bank 9.99% €420.56 1890 724 724Ulster Bank 10.30% €423.37 1890 303 0041Based on €20,000 borrowed over five years²Current account customers only

HOME ENERGYCompany Fuel Av. Annual Bill¹

Energia Electricity only €1,038Flogas Gas only €798Energia Dual fuel €1,850¹Online billing and payment by direct debit required. Prices are based on average annual use of13,800kWh gas, 5,300kWh electricity Source:Bonkers.ie

MORTGAGES

BEST FIXED RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERSInstitution Rate Term Contact

Mortgage Store 3.50%1 2 years mortgagestore.ie

Ulster Bank 3.20%2, 3 3 years 1800 303 004

Ulster Bank 3.50%2 5 years 1800 303 004

Ulster Bank 3.60%2 7 years 1800 303 004120% deposit 240% deposit 3Min €250,000

BESTFIXEDRATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERSInstitution Rate Term Contact

AIB Bank 3.60% 1 2 years 1890 724 724

KBC Bank 3.60% 1, 2 2 years 1800 51 52 53

AIBBank 3.65% 1 3 years 1890 724 724

KBC Bank 3.65% 1, 2 3 years 1800 51 52 53110% deposit 2New customers only with KBC current accounts

BESTVARIABLERATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERSInstitution Rate Deposit Contact

KBC Bank 3.25%1 50% 1800 51 52 53

EBS 3.30% 50% 1850 654321

AIB Bank 3.35% 50% 1890 724 724

Haven 3.35% 50% broker1New customers only with KBC current accounts

BESTVARIABLERATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERSInstitution Rate Deposit Contact

KBC Bank 3.65%1 10% 1800 51 52 53

EBS 3.70% 10% 1850 654321

AIB Bank 3.75% 10% 1890 724 7241New customers only with KBC current accounts

HEALTH INSURANCETOP HEALTHINSURANCEPLANS

Insurer Plan Monthlycost

Contact

Public hospitals — basic cover

GloHealth Base Lite €32.831 1890 781 781

VHI Start Plan €38.35 1890 444 444

Laya Assure Vitality €42.83 1890 700 890

Private hospitals — semi-private room

GloHealth Net Most 100 €81.25 1890 781 781

VHI PMI 40 15 €77.95 1890 444 444

Laya Simply Connect €85.752 1890 700 890

1No direct settlement on this plan 2Includes day-to-day coverPrices are for individual adults and reflect changes to tax relief. Laya rates include a 3% charge formonthly payments Source: TotalHealthCover.ie

CURRENT ACCOUNTSInstitution ATM fee POS 1fee Quarterly fee

Ulster Bank €0.00 €0.00 €12.00

Permanent TSB €0.00 €0.00 €12.00

KBCBank €0.30 €0.00 €6.00

Bank of Ireland €0.25 €0.10 €5.00

AIBBank €0.35 €0.20 €4.50

1Point-of-sale or debit card purchases

CREDITCARDSBESTBALANCETRANSFERSCard Disc Rate Until ContactBank of Ireland 0.00% 7 months 0818 200 334KBC Bank 0.00% 6 months 1800 51 52 53Permanent TSB 0.00% 6 months 1890 500 172

BESTSTANDARDRATESCard Rate Interest free ContactAIBClick 13.60% 1 56 days aib.ieBank of Ireland 17.30% 2 56 days 0818 200 334KBCBank 18.25% 56 days 1800 51 52 531AIB internet banking customers only 2Annual fee of €76.18 Source:Bonkers.ie

Best Buys

The finance bill contains one fresh morsel of good news forPAYE taxpayers with a doubling of the small benefit relief,meaning employers will be able to reward staff, tax-free, withvouchers of up to €500. The bill is unlikely to be passed beforethe new year, so the relief may not be reflected in Christmasbonuses. Still, even at the current threshold of €250, it is one ofthe few perks that remain outside the taxman’s grasp. We lookat how it works and what other perks are out there.

HOW CAN MY EMPLOYER GET THE SMALL BENEFIT RELIEF?Small benefit relief can be applied to a single, one-offbonus made each year to employees. The bonus cannot be

made through cash or cheques, and so is commonly made byway of a gift voucher. The relief applies to only one bonus. If acompany awards an employer a bonus gift voucher of €100 inMay, then any further vouchers will be liable to tax and PRSI.Where a benefit exceeds the threshold (currently €250, soon tobe €500) the full value of the benefit is subject to income taxand PRSI, not just the excess. If the employee also receives staffdiscounts, where the goods or services are provided at below thecost of those goods and services to the employer, the employeecannot also avail of the small benefits concession in the sameyear. Staff discounts are not taxable.

WHAT OTHER BENEFITS ARE TAX-FREE?It is a short list. Christmas parties or special events suchas sports days are not liable for tax as long as the

expense is reasonable. Contributions by an employer to thestaff social club are also tax-free, if they are reasonable andmembership is open to all staff. Free or subsidised food from astaff canteen is also tax-exempt, as are an annual medicalcheck-up and car park facilities. Course fees, covered directly orby a refunded payment, will not be liable for tax as long as thecourse is relevant to the firm’s business. A firm can pay asubscription to a professional body so long as membership isrelevant to the business. Newspapers and periodicals provided

free to employees are also not a taxable benefit so long as thematerial is relevant to the business of the company.

WHAT ABOUT TRAVEL EXPENSES?The cycle-to-work scheme and travel passes are tax-efficient rather than tax-free, yet each can be attractive.

In both cases, the employer pays for the bike or travel passupfront, and the employee pays the employer back by way ofsalary sacrifice. This means the employee is paying for thebenefit from their pre-tax rather than after-tax income. In thecycle scheme, an employer can buy a bike and accessories upto the value of €1,000. It can only be used once in a five-yearperiod. For a top-rate taxpayer, the savings on a Dublin Bus &Rail annual ticket is €738. Details at taxsaver.ie.

WHAT ABOUT THE CARRIAGE CLOCK FOR RETIRING STAFF?Long service awards are tax-free, if the employee hasworked for the firm for 20 years or more and the gift is “a

tangible article of reasonable cost”. In other words, not cash orvouchers. The value of these awards cannot exceed €50 peryear of service, otherwise the entire amount will be taxable.

CAN THE COMPANY PAY FOR MY PHONE AND BROADBAND?Mobile phones and laptops can be provided to employeesso long as the employer retains ownership and any

private use by the employee is incidental. An employer canmeet the cost of a broadband connection, provided for businessuse, again if any private use is merely incidental.

TOP TIPSIf you work from home, you’ll be entitled to a tax-freepayment of €3.20 per day from your employer to cover

electricity and heating costs. This applies to those who bringwork home in the evening or at weekends. It does not precludethe worker from making expense claims for above this amount.

IAN CARBERY

MONEYMADEEASYYOURFIVEMINUTEGUIDETO...TAX-FREE WORK PERKS

SAVINGSEASY ACCESSInstitution Rate Min deposit ContactRaboDirect 1.25% 1 €1 rabodirect.ieKBC Bank 1.05%2 €3,000 1800 51 52 53Nationwide UK 1.01% 3 €2,000 1800 800 31010.5% over €50,000. 20.5% over €100,000 3Six free withdrawals

NOTICE ACCOUNTSInstitution Rate Notice ContactRaboDirect 1.45% 1 90 days rabodirect.ieRaboDirect 1.25% 1 30 days rabodirect.ieNationwide UK 1.02% 2 30 days 1800 800 3101Min €1 2Min €2.000

DIRTFREEInstitution Rate Term ContactState Savings 2.26% 10 years 1850 30 50 60State Savings 1.24% 5.5 years 1850 30 50 60State Savings 0.99% 4 years 1850 30 50 60

FIXED RATES

Institution AnnualRate Term Contact

KBC Bank 1.20% 1 14 months 1800 51 52 53KBC Bank 1.15% 1 12 months 1800 51 52 53KBC Bank 1.10% 1 18 months 1800 51 52 531Min €3,000

MONTHLY SAVERSInstitution Rate Max monthly ContactNationwide UK 3.00% €1,000 1800 800 310EBS 3.00% €1,000 1850 654321KBC Bank 2.00% €1,000 1800 51 52 53

Aproudtraditioncanbeasourceofstrengthforafamily,acom-munity, or a business, but itcan also be a millstone for itscustodians. Last year, Idecided that CRH, the Irish

buildingmaterials company,wasweigheddown by its proud tradition, so I sold myshares. I’m wondering now if it’s time tobuy some back.IboughtCRHinMay2006at€27ashare.

The dividend for the year was 52 cents, sothedividendyieldwasunder2%.Thiswasless thanIcouldhaveearnedelsewherebutCRHhad aproud tradition of increasing itsdividendeveryyearformorethan20years,and I was hoping formore of the same.Things started promisingly. The divi-

dend for 2007was increased bymore than30%, to68ca share. Itwas increasedagainfor 2008, this time by just a single cent, to69c a share, but by now the recession wasapproaching its nadir and CRH, as amajor player in the construction industry,was suffering.Onthedayitannouncedthehigherdiv-

idend for 2008, it also asked shareholdersfor extramoneybywayof a “rights issue”.We had the peculiar situation that it wasgiving money to shareholders with onehand and asking for some back with theother.Whydid itnotbite thebulletandcut

DIARY OF A PRIVATEINVESTOR

the dividend?Was it a reluctance to breakwith the proud tradition?It was a two for seven rights issue,

meaning that I could buy two extra sharesfor every seven shares I already held. Thecost of each additional share was just€8.40, considerably less than the €15.065

shareprice ruling at the time. The“specialoffer” was being funded with our ownmoney, so the price had to fall to €13.58immediatelyafterwards.(Thenumericallyminded can check the numbers, based onthefact thatevery7shares Iownedbefore-hand, plus twice€8.40, shouldbe equal in

value to the 9 shares I owned immediatelyafterwards).Sincethen,thedividendhasbeenmain-

tained at 62.5c a share. Technically, this ismarginally higher than the 69c dividendthat applied before the rights issue, so theproud tradition lives on, but at a cost. In2010and2013,CRHhadtodipintoreservestopaythedividendasprofits in thoseyearswere less than the cost of the dividend.There was also some severe cost-cuttingduring this period.In April 2014 I decided that CRH’s pre-

occupationwithmaintaining thedividendwas not good for the business. I sold mysharesat€21.49.Thiswaslessthanthe€27they costme in the first place, butmy losswas mitigated, firstly by the dividends

received in themeantime, secondlyby theprofits on the €8.40 rights issue shares,and thirdly bymy decision to opt for scripdividends, shares instead of cash, on anumber of occasions. Scrip dividends areanotherdeviceaimedatpersuadingshare-holders to reinvest in the business. Forexample, instead of taking the October2013 dividend in cash,when the pricewas€17.85, I succumbed to the lure ofadditional shares at the discount priceof €15.79.Iwas lucky in the timing ofmydecision

to sell: theprice fell from€21.49 atwhich Isold in April 2014 to less than €16 fourmonths later. More recently, the markethas lookedmore favourably on CRH.The company has agreed two poten-

CRH is back on the right track but still carrying too many risks and unknowns for me to invest in the building materials giant just now

CRHmay again dome proud but not yetThe companyhasdivested itself of itscumbersometraditions andhasstruck potentiallytransformative dealsbut Iwill wait a bitbefore diving back in

SIMON DAWSON

tiallytransformativedealsin2015.Thefirstwasaby-productofthemergeroftwoofitscompetitors,LafargeofFranceandHolcimof Switzerland. The competition authori-ties approved themerger but only on con-dition that the merged entity sell some ofitsbusinesses.CRHboughtthem,presum-ablyataknockdownpricegiventheforcednature of the sale.The second potentially transformative

deal is the proposed acquisition of aCalifornian glazing company. The totalcost of the two acquisitions is more than€7.5bn, a lot of money in anyone’slanguage.Money for theacquisitionscamepartly from issuing €1.6bn of shares andthe balance from extra borrowings andretained cash.The share price, now hovering around

€25, reflects thisnewfoundoptimism.Thedividend is still 62.5c a share, so thedividend yield is about 2.5%. A yield thislow is only acceptable if there are goodprospects for dividends to grow in future.Profits for 2014 were just 78.9c ashare,which is less than 30% more thanthecostof thedividend.Assumingthat thedirectors’ long-term goal is to pay 50% ofprofits in dividends and to reinvest theother 50%, profitswill have to increase toabout€1.30asharebeforethedividendcanbe increased.Profits of 130c a share may seem a long

way from last year’s 78.9c, but the recentacquisitionscouldworkwondersforearn-ings, probably not in 2015 but definitely in2016 and beyond, when the managementshould be able to realise savings fromstreamlining thevariousbusinesses. Someanalysts are forecasting that earnings persharein2017willbemorethandoubletheir2014 levels.On the other hand, there are risks, and

lots of them. One is the high level of debt(around €10 per share) and the associatedinterest cost. The challenge of integratingthe various businesses carries executionrisk and operational risk is also higherbecause CRH is now so much biggerthan before.CRHmaynolongerbeweigheddownby

its proud tradition, but there are toomanyunknowns and too many risks for myliking. I have therefore decided to passfor now.

Colm Fagan is an active privateinvestor. He is a retired actuary and a non-executive director of a number of financialinstitutions. The purpose of this column isto demystify the world of stocks and sharesby recounting one person’s adventures in

this world. It does not purport to giveadvice. Please seek professional advice

before making any big financial decision.

COLMFAGAN