Primary School Place Planning

Children’s Services Scrutiny Committee

8th May 2013

Office of National Statistics Data Salford Population Change

Comparison ONS Mid Year Estimates and Succesive Population Projections - Salford Source: ONS

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2003 Projection

2006 Projection

2008 Projection

2010 projection

Mid Year Estimates

The Office of National Statistics data

ONS indicates an overall 58000 population growth for Salford 2010 – 2030

ONS predictions are based on birth and death data plus migration trends

ONS methodology for predicting migration trends has improved to ensure greater reliability

The growth mirrors national trends, Salford has the second highest growth predicted for Greater Manchester

Comparison between 2008 predictions and 2010 predictions show a significant increase

ONS population data prediction now correlates with primary school roll numbers and trends

Comparison with AGMA

Table 7: Projected Total Population Change, Greater Manchester Districts.

Area

Projected Total PopulationCumulative Change (Number of

people) Cumulative Change (Percent)

2010 2015 2020 2030 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30

Bolton 270 282 294 315 12 24 45 4.4 9.0 16.7

Bury 185 193 201 215 8 16 30 4.1 8.5 16.3

Manchester 470 507 535 583 37 65 113 7.8 13.8 23.9

Oldham 221 227 234 246 7 13 25 2.9 6.1 11.3

Rochdale 206 210 215 224 5 10 19 2.2 4.8 9.1

Salford 230 246 262 288 16 31 58 7.0 13.6 25.1

Stockport 285 293 302 320 8 17 35 2.7 6.0 12.3

Tameside 218 226 235 251 8 17 33 3.9 8.0 15.3

Trafford 217 228 240 261 11 23 44 4.9 10.6 20.4

Wigan 310 320 331 349 11 21 39 3.4 6.9 12.5

Greater Manchester 2,611 2,732 2,850 3,052 121 239 441 4.6 9.1 16.9

Source: ONS 2010 based sub national population projections.

Primary Pupil Growth

ONS - 97% of the growth 2010-30 of 6200 will occur by 2020 after which it is predicted it will level off at this higher level

Salford LA – In 2011 we predicted the need to form 6700 places in 32 forms of entry by 202

There is good confirmation of our predictions from the ONS trends Need to provide surplus of 5% minimum for movement of children

Need to recognise that 20% of the 6200 additional children will have additional needs = 1240 pupils

Around 200 of the 1240 will merit formal assessment and from this approximately 100 could need special school provision.

Graphs of Salford pupil trends since 1981 and our prediction to 2018

Number On Roll Trend - Primary Schools

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Pupil Numbers

Schools Capacity

• All areas of Salford are affected.

• 32 forms of entry extra needed from 2011 to 2018 – currently 89 in total.

• This equated to 16 x 2 form entry schools but many possible solutions are available.

• Based on recent Salford expenditure the cost of 16 new build 2FE schools would be approximately £128m however Government is seeking cheaper standardised design solutions and use of alternative buildings.

• 12 new planning areas have been developed correlating with ‘travel to learn’ patterns, community areas and natural and man-made barriers. An option appraisal for each will be developed with UV by September.

• That Free Schools will influence our plans as decisions are likely to be made without reference to LA and need to work with DfE to link these into our plans to maximise use.

What we have learnt so far

• 500 additional places were created for September 2011.

• 700 additional places have been created for September 2012 in 24 schools.

• 500 additional places are being created for September 2013 in 16 schools

• In both years this has been achieved in the majority of cases through the utilisation of existing school spaces i.e. converting non classroom space into classrooms.

• We installed temporary classrooms on 5 schools for September 2012 and needed 1 temporary classroom in 2011.

• We have identified the projects for the expansion of schools for September 2013 and held seminars for elected members, head teachers and chairs of governors to put forward their proposals.

• Working closely with neighbouring LAs is maintained to ensure cross boundary pressures are acknowledged.

• Continuing to work closely with the dioceses and schools through the Stakeholder Steering Group to ensure good communication and wider ownership of the challenge.

What have we been doing?

Key Challenges

• w.e.f. 1st February 2012 Education Legislation affects ability to dispose of school sites and gain capital receipts

• Presumption that any newly established schools will be either Academies or Free Schools

• Possible late notification of a Free school application being submitted after expansion work has commenced on school sites within the same area

• Independence of VA schools – Governing Bodies of each separate school need to agree to any plans and may have conditions to agreements

• Identifying viable alternatives buildings and establishing new schools in addition to extending existing schools

• Balancing the needs of nursery and children’s centre provision on school sites

• Potential Demographic changes during the programme

Options for Expansion

• Bring back all available classroom space in schools for school use

• Extend existing schools with extensions

• Re-commission disused schools including those vacated through BSF programme

• Thru-schools in Secondary Buildings – until we need secondary places

• Acquire adjacent buildings to schools and create Key Stage on adjoining site

• Acquire other existing LA buildings for School use

• Use all LA owned brownfield sites to build new schools

Illustrative map of schools across all 12 planning areas which were increased for September 2012

September 2013

Area Primary School Project Scope1 Peel Hall Creation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group)

via building extension gross external footprint of 20m2, internal alterations and reconfiguration.

2 St Mark’s CE Creation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via 4 class base modular / system, build.

3 Cadishead Creation of additional Yr 6 class, via internal alterations and reconfiguration.

4 Mossfield Creation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group) via incorporation of children’s centre accommodation and internal remodelling.

7 Lewis Street Creation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group) by using space within the existing building , the creation of playing fields to the west of Lewis Street, the creation of a sure start children’s centre and addressing the backlog of condition in existing school building.

7 Christ Church Address the back log of condition, as per the Asset Management Plan.

September 2013

Area Primary School Project Scope8 St Luke’s RC Creation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group)

via 4 classroom modular / system build.

8 St John’s CE (utilising the former Oakwood High site)

Creation of additional 210 (30 places per year group) via the development of an additional 1FE modular / system build facility to be located on the adjacent former Oakwood High site. St John’s CE would operate as a split site school.

September 2013

Area Primary School Project Scope1 Bridgewater Creation of additional 105 places 915 places per year group)

via traditional build.

3 Fiddlers Lane The original proposal was to acquire an external adjacent private building to facilitate extension. However, during recent contact with the owner, the feasibility of acquiring the building within the necessary timescale is uncertain (although negotiations will continue in terms of future acquisition).

Therefore the alternative proposal is to create an additional 30 reception places via use of internal accommodation (the room identified is part of the children’s centre which is currently not used).

5 St Mary’s RC Creation of additional 210 places ( 30 places per year group) by internal remodelling, incorporation of vacant nursery building within the site and 4 classroom extension.

6 Monton Green Creation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via modular / system .

September 2013

Area Primary School Project Scope6 Westwood Park Creation of additional 15 extra reception places via use of

existing accommodation.

9 St Luke’s CE The feasibility study returned represents a high cost scheme, an we would wish to review this as a future 2014 project. Therefore the alternative proposal is to create an additional 30 reception places via internal remodelling.

10 The Friars Creation of additional (15 places per year group) via internal alteration and reconfiguration to the former Oasis Youth Centre Building.

11 St Philip’s CE Creation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via internal remodelling and extension.

12 To be confirmed (potential Marlborough Road)

A feasibility study was undertaken by Urban Vision relating to the potential use of a site adjacent to Brentnall Primary to provide an extension. This is not available, therefore contact will be made with Marlborough Road regarding potential to increase (existing accommodation would allow this.

Finance Update