Climate Change and Resilience

Coastal Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (CCRIP)

Map showing the study Area• Increase of Temperature•Increase of Rainfall•Sea Level Rise•Enhanced Tropical Cyclone•River Floods and Flash Floods•Erosion• Enhanced Tidal Inundation and Storm Surges•Wind Action

• Damages to infrastructure

• Agriculture• Industry• Housing sector• Livelihood• Health and Sanitation• Environment & Ecology

• Salinity• Water logging

•Etc.

The following work has been performed for climate change current and future

• Guidance on climate change and Sea level Rise• Guidance on Climate resilient slope management• Climate Change Analysis with guidance for incorporating climate change to develop climate resilient infrastructure• Climate Change Notes for Appraisal Reports on Regional Basis•Developed Training modules for training of the Engineers and relevant stakeholders in English and Bangla

Overview of Climate Baseline for the study area

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45

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Tem

pera

ture

( o C

)

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3

Sta

ndar

d de

viat

ion

(o C

)

Mean TmaxMean TminSD TmaxSD Tmin

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J F M A M J J A S O N D

Rainfall(mm)

S.D.

CV%

Current Trends of Tmax and Tmin (C/Decade): Barisal (Upper) & Khulna (lower)

Station WinterPre-

monsoon MonsoonPost-

moonsoon AnnualTmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax

Barisal -0.15 0.05 0 0.02 -0.01 0.13 -0.04 0.24 -0.05 0.11Bhola 0.14 0.05 0.25 0.01 0.21 0.24 0.15 0.26 0.19 0.16

Patuakh 0.24 0.17 0.03 0.38 0.06 0.42 0.02 0.14 -0.03 0.28

Khepup -0.1 -0.01 0.16 0.26 0.24 0.12 -0.05 0.11 0.06 0.012

Station Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-

monsoon Annual

KhulnaTmin -0.11 0.01 0.03 0.1 0

Tmax -0.15 0 0.2 0.21 0.06

SatkhiraTmin 0.08 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.09

Tmax -0.04 -0.03 0.15 0.19 0.06

MonglaTmin -0.03 0.18 0.09 0.05 0.07

Tmax 0.29 0.62 0.26 0.51 0.42

Station Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual

Barisal (1965-2011) -3.13 -7.69 -64.82 5.93 -15.87

Bhola (1966-2010 -5.63 -15.13 -64.89 6.46 -80.55Patuakhali (1984-

2011) -1.34 -2.01 138.5 23.79 146.7Khepupara (1972-

2011) 0.45 1.54 77.51 40.28 119.1

Sea Level Rise+land

subsidence at 1977-1998 (22

years)

4-6 cm/Decade

The trends of annual rainfall (mm/decade) and sea level rise (cm/decade) for Barisal region

Rainfall

Winter Pre-monsoon

Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual

mm/decad

e

% per decad

e

mm/decad

e

%per decad

e

mm/decade

% per decade mm/

decade

% per decade

mm/decad

e

% per decad

eKhulna 4.5 11.4 3.1 1.1 31.0 2.5 6.0 3.3 44.0 2.5

Satkhira 6.4 15.3 11.1 4.3 24.8 2.1 -3.0 -0.2 39.0 2.3Mongla -25.1 -64.7 -42.5 -15.3 132.3 9.4 18.0 8.2 83.0 4.3

Sea Level

Rise at Hiron Point

4 cm/decade

Khulna Region

Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON Annual

Temperature 1.64 1.50 1.53 1.86 1.75Rainfall (%) 3.4 4.3 6.3 -2.0 3.2

Sea level Rise+ Land Subsidence

in the south-central coastal

47 cm

Climate Change Scenario for 20150For Barisal Region

Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON AnnualTemperature 2.33 1.91 1.71 2.0 2.33Rainfall (%) -7.4 14.6 10.2 9.5 5.6Sea level

Rise+ Land Subsidence in

the south-central coastal

47 cm

Climate Projection in Khulna Region

Performed work on Climate model

• Research on best fit model has been done on the three districts namely Khulna, Patuakhali, Satkhira.

• After proper calibration and validation of two downscaling models SDSM and LARS-WG, LARS-WG was found to be best suited for the study area for future prediction of rainfall.

• Future prediction on rainfall has been done for the time period 2020’s

• Several field visits to water logged area in Satkhira and Khulna district have been made to survey the baseline condition of the area.

Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon

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KhulnaPatuakhaliSatkhira

Perc

enta

ge C

hnge

(mm

)

Seasonal percentage Change from baseline to 2020’s by LARS-WG

Climate Issues and General Adaptation OptionsClimate Issues General Adaptation OptionsIncrease of temperature

Take appropriate measures to meet enhanced water demand due to higher evaporation

Sea level rise, storm and surges, enhanced temperature, monsoon flooding and water logging and enhanced salinity

Increased Quality Control on construction Using suitable materials Raising the level of the road Minor road realignmlassent Increasing maintenance effectiveness Including additional longitudinal and transverse

drainage systems Improved cross drainage

Increase in precipitation

Additional drainage capacity Protection of earthworks and road slopes against

direct rain and wave impact. The plantation of suitable grass, shrubs and plants are suggested.

Increase water capture and storage system

Climate Issues General Adaptation OptionsIncrease in wind strength

Appropriate wind-risk vegetation on road verges Modifying the design of supports and anchorages

for buildingsClimate Mitigation Increase plantation for improving ecological

balance and livelihood development. The renewable energy sources should be

deployed. Improved waste management

Water supply and sanitation

The growth Centers should have adequate water-supply and sanitation arrangements.

Increase rain water harvesting and storage system

Future Plan of Work on Climate Resilience• Prepare climate scenarios of higher resolution preferably on District basis • Further research of climate resilience• Generate information on old and indigenous way of adaptation; current technologies and new ways of adaptation; Community based adaptations; • Incorporation of Gender and Livelihood aspects in climate change• Study other climate Resilient projects and adaptation policies and options followed in those projects

• Prepare 60 years cyclone impact history; Damage Assessment of a few recent cyclones and prepare zones describing the areas with different damage levels.

•Preparation of Future Projections of Tropical Cyclone intensity for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 based on Sea Surface Temperatures

• Assess the achieved Resilience:o Assess the impact of intervention of climate change; o Preparation of monitoring sheet /tools for this purpose

• Climate Change Knowledge Management

Future work plan on climate modeling

• Completion of the current work to finish the prediction of future rainfall in the project area .

• Selection of pilot projects to survey the baseline for the climate change scenario.

• Prediction of flood level and terrain modeling of the project area.

• Preparation of inundated area for baseline survey. • Modeling of future inundation and preparation of

flood risk map with future prediction.