presentation centro ocde 28 abr 2010
TRANSCRIPT
Tendencias y Política Urbana en la OCDE
Javier Sánchez Reaza
Urbanización en el mundo
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 2027
Popu
latio
n in
OEC
D co
untr
ies
(bill
ions
)
Wor
ld p
opul
ation
(bill
ions
)
World urban population World rural population OECD urban population OECD rural population
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Urbanización en el mundo
—
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n (T
hous
ands
)
China India United States of AmericaBrazil Russian Federation JapanMexico Germany United KingdomFrance South Africa
China
India
USA
Brazil
from 1970-2010, China's urban population will have grown by 281%
168%
60%
153%
Source: UN World Ubanization Prospects
Urbanización y densidad
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Crecimiento Urbano en la OCDEPaíses con un crecimiento urbano positivo
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Crecimiento Urbano en la OCDEPaíses con un crecimiento urbano negativo
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Crecimiento Urbano en la OCDEPaíses con un crecimiento urbano sin tendencia clara
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Crecimiento Urbano en la OCDE
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
HungaryCzech Republic
PolandSlovak Republic
IcelandLuxembourg
KoreaGermany
United KingdomBelgium
ItalyJapan
FranceDenmark
NetherlandsGreeceAustria
PortugalSwitzerland
SwedenNorway
SpainUnited States
FinlandIreland
AustraliaCanadaMexico
New ZealandTurkey
Urban Intermediate Rural
Crecimiento Urbano en la OCDE
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy Japan
Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
SpainSweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Ann
ual a
vera
ge u
rban
pop
ulati
on g
row
th r
ate
(199
5-20
05)
Urban share of total population (2005)
OECD
average
Notes: Urban share of total population by country refers to population in urban regions as a proportion of total population.Iceland and Luxemburg were not included in the sample as the OECD Regional Database identifies no predominantly urban (PU) regions in those countries.
Urbanización y crecimiento de la población urbana
Crecimiento y tamano de ciudades
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Small Medium Large +1,500,000
Annu
al a
vera
ge u
rban
pop
ulati
on g
row
th
rate
(199
5-20
05)
Urb
an p
opul
ation
(200
5)Crecimiento de la población urbana por tamano de la ciudad
This anaiyis carried out using only predominantly urban (PU) areas.Small cities are PUs with population between 100,000 and 500,000 people. Medium-sized cities are PUs with population between 500,000 and 1 million people. Large cities are PUs with population between 1 and 1.5 million people
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Urban Sprawl
Source: OECD (2008) Environmental Outlook 2030
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1950 1970 1990 2000
Urb
an a
rea
(km
2 )
OECD Rest of the World BRICs
Suburbanización
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Pittsburgh
Birmingham
Rhine-Ruhr
Berlin
Leeds
Aichi
Krakow
Frankfurt
Helsinki
Osaka
Warsaw
Prague
Brussels
London
Copenhagen
Tokyo
Stockholm
Hamburg
Paris
Cleveland
Munich
Zurich
Philadelphia
Busan
Milan
Oslo
Vienna
San Francisco
St.Louis
Lisbon
Boston
Chicago
Budapest
Portland
Baltimore
Detroit
Mexico City
Istanbul
Puebla
Washington
Monterrey
Tampa Bay
Seoul
Dublin
Houston
Guadalajara
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Denver
Dallas
metro region BELT Metro-region CORE
Urbanización e ingreso
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
ItalyJapan
KoreaMexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Urb
an sh
are
of to
tal p
opul
ation
(200
5)
per capita GDP in current prices and PPP (2005)
OECD average
OECD
average
Urbanización y crecimiento
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Econ
omic
gro
wth
(GD
P an
nual
ave
rage
gro
wth
rate
(199
5-20
05))
per capita GDP (2005)
Tamano y crecimiento
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Econ
omic
gro
wth
(GD
P an
nual
ave
rage
gro
wth
rate
(199
5-20
05))
ln (Urban population (2005))
Determinantes
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1E-15 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
DeaguNaples
MontrealBerlin
VancouverLille
ManchesterLeeds
Tampa BayBirmingham
FukuokaValencia
SeoulTorontoKrakow
PhoenixMiami
St.LouisPittsburgh
OsakaBusan
Rhine-RuhrMelbourne
BaltimoreAnkaraDetroit
AucklandCopenhagen
PortlandRandstad-Holland
SydneyIzmir
ZurichTurin
ClevelandDublin
Los AngelesHamburg
PueblaChicago
San DiegoAtlanta
BarcelonaOslo
PhiladelphiaIstanbul
TokyoGuadalajara
AichiHelsinkiBrussels
FrankfurtLyon
StuttgartVienna
DallasDenver
MilanMadrid
New YorkMinneapolis
RomeMunich
HoustonSeattle
StockholmLisbon
Mexico CityBostonAthensLondon
San FranciscoPrague
ParisWashington
BudapestMonterrey
Warsaw
Productivity Employment Participation Demographic
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
DeaguNaples
MontrealBerlin
VancouverLille
ManchesterLeeds
Tampa BayBirmingham
FukuokaValencia
SeoulTorontoKrakow
PhoenixMiami
St.LouisPittsburgh
OsakaBusan
Rhine-RuhrMelbourne
BaltimoreAnkaraDetroit
AucklandCopenhagen
PortlandRandstad-Holland
SydneyIzmir
ZurichTurin
ClevelandDublin
Los AngelesHamburg
PueblaChicago
San DiegoAtlanta
BarcelonaOslo
PhiladelphiaIstanbul
TokyoGuadalajara
AichiHelsinkiBrussels
FrankfurtLyon
StuttgartVienna
DallasDenver
MilanMadrid
New YorkMinneapolis
RomeMunich
HoustonSeattle
StockholmLisbon
Mexico CityBostonAthensLondon
San FranciscoPrague
ParisWashington
BudapestMonterrey
Warsaw
per capita GDP
Innovación
Source: OECD (2010) Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What lessons for China?
PU57%
IN29%
PR14%
Small3%
Medium6%
Large14%
+1,500,00077%
R² = 0.644
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Urb
an p
aten
t sha
re o
f tot
al p
aten
ts (2
005)
Urban share of total population (2005)
Urbanización y contaminación
Source: OECD (2009) Competitive Cities and Climate Change
Urbanización y contaminación
Source: OECD (2009) Competitive Cities and Climate Change
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Czech Republic
Canada
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
New ZealandNorway Poland
Portugal
Spain Slovak Republic
Sweden Switzerland
Turkey
UK
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
per c
apita
CO
2 em
issi
ons i
n 20
06 (
t of C
O2
/ po
pula
tion)
Urban share of total population (2005)
Urbanización y contaminación
Source: OECD (2009) Competitive Cities and Climate Change
Australia
Austria Belgium Denmark
Czech Republic
Canada
Finland
France
Germany Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy Japan Korea
Mexico
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Turkey
United States
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
per c
apita
tra
nspo
rt C
O2
emis
sion
s in
2006
(k
g CO
2/ p
opul
ation
)
Urban density in 2005 (population/ km2)
Urbanización y contaminación
Source: OECD (2009) Competitive Cities and Climate Change
-0.02%
-0.01%
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
DS/BS TS/BS
Provisión de infraestructura
Policyresponses
Formación de capital humano
Medio ambientepara negocios
Innovación
Crecimientoregional
A escala regional
Políticas integrales
Gobernanza Metropolitana
Bases tributarias comunes y fondos
redistributivos
Redes Informales (asociaciones, platformas, conferencias)
Agencia Metropolitana
Gobierno Metropolitano
Más FuertesMás Ligeras
•Minneapolis-Saint-Paul• Estocolmo•Grand Paris
• Randstad (Plateform)• Región Urbana de Lyon, •Consejo Regional de Estocolmo-Mälar• Asociaciones: Bilbao 30 Metropolitana, Torino Internazionale• Conferencia Regional (Rhine-Ruhr)
Propósito específico•Muchas ciudades de
Estados Unidos• Cd. de México•Atenas (transport)Propósitos múltiples• Comunidad
metropolitana de Montreal
• Distrito del ‘Greater Vancouver’
• Comunidades de Aglomeración en
Francia
• La Autoridad del ‘Greater London’• Asociación del Stuggart Verband• Metro Portland
•Montreal, Toronto
•Busan/Seoul en los 1950s•Madrid en los
1960s•Melbourne en
los 1990s
Fusión
Coordinación Intermunicipal en Francia
2,286 Municipal communities (Communautés de
communes)~5 200 inhabitants
155 Municipal agglomerations
(Communautés d’agglomération)~ 127 000 inhabitants)
14 Urban communities
(Communautés urbaines)~ 440 000 inhabitants
Gobernanza Metropolitana