presentation by shenggen fan cifor-ifpri policy seminar "food, forests, and landscapes -...

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Sustainable intensification for food and nutrition security

Shenggen FanDirector General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Food, Forests, and Landscapes: Solutions for Sustainable DevelopmentWashington, DC | June 24, 2013

Click to edit Master title styleKey messages

Global burden of hunger, malnutrition, and disease is high

Challenges to natural resources and the environment are large

Sustainable intensification is critical for food and nutrition security


2012 Global Hunger Index

GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

50+ countries have serious / alarming / extremely alarming levels of hunger

Click to edit Master title style2 bil. + people suffer from hidden hunger

Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies

Source: HarvestPlus 2011

Economic cost of malnutrition = $3.5 trillion or 5% of global GDP

Zinc deficiency, S. Asia

Children <5: 79%

Iron deficiency, Africa

Children <5: 68% Pregnant women: 57%

(FAO 2013)


In 2008

• Over 1.4 bil. adults overweight

• Over 500 mil. adults obese

2.8 mil. deaths annually related to overweight and obesity

Overweight and obesity no more a developed-country problem; in 2008

• Brazil, Mexico, South Africa: 50-70% of adults

• China: 25% of adults

Overweight and obesity are rising

Prevalence of overweight and obese children under-five, 1990-2020 (%)

Source: de Onis, et al. 2010Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

3

6

9

12

15 AfricaAsiaDeveloped CountriesDeveloping Coun-tries

Overweight and obese children to rise

by 43% in developing countries (2010-2020)

Source: WHO 2013

Click to edit Master title styleGrowth is critical for nutritionpart of the SOLUTION and part of the PROBLEM

Growth improves nutrition10% in GDP/capita is associated with 6% in child stunting

Growth has unintended effects on nutrition 10% in GDP/capita is associated with 7% in women overweight & obesity

Source: Ruel et al. 2013Note: Graphics by J. Vivalo (IFPRI)

Click to edit Master title styleCurrent / future challenges threaten food and nutrition security

Increasing population and urbanization

Rising incomes and demand / diet changes

Rising oil prices / biofuel expansion; increasing volatility of food prices

Growing natural resource constraints

Climate change and higher frequency / intensity of extreme weather events


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50 OECD

Developing countries

Source: Data from OECD-FAO 2012

GDP per capita (2005 $US in ‘000s)

Rising incomes will lead to higher food demand and diet changes

Source: Data from ERS-USDA 2012

Change in consumption of agric. products, 2009-11 to 2021 (%)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000World

Developing Countries

Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)


Shenggen Fan, June 2013

Land and water constraints are high

24% of global land area affected by degradation (1981–2003)

Annual forest net loss = 5.2 mil. ha (2000-10)

Arable land per capita

• 65% (1970-00)

• expected to further 50% by 2050

Annual loss of per capita arable land in developing countries, 1961–2009

Source: FAO 2011; Nkonya et al. 2011

With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk globally

• 52% of population

• 49% of grain production

• 45% of GDP

Water stress for total renewable water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)

Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011



Climate change will have adverse impacts on agriculture

Total global production: -37.3%

Rainfed maize, 2080

Irrigated wheat, 2080

Total global production: -28.8% Source: IFPRI IMPACT 2011



Sustainable intensification is critical

Agriculture can Meet the world’s growing and changing demand for food,

feed, fiber, and fuel

Enhance nutrition and health

Preserve the planet’s natural resources

Well-designed sustainable intensification strategy make possible

• meeting rising agric. demand from existing natural resources

• reducing negative environmental effects of increased agric. production

• adaptation and mitigation of climate change



Sustainable world scenario assumptions

High economic growth (3.58%); low population growth (0.35%)

Additional investments in agricultural R&D• Crop yield growth +90% from baseline (+27% from 2030)

• livestock yield growth +50% from baseline (+15% from 2030)

Water use efficiency improvements by 2050 incl. • 1.2% per year technological change in domestic and industrial sectors;

full access to safe drinking water

• Reduction in water demand (domestic = - 45%; industrial = - 43%; irrigation = - 14.5%)

UNFCCC’s agreed limit of 2˚C temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels achieved

Access to secondary schooling for all girls by 2030Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009; Nelson et al. 2010; IFPRI IMPACT 2012; UNEP 2012



2005 2030 Conventional

worlds

2050 Conventional

worlds

2030 Sustainable

worlds

2050 Sustainable

worlds

Area-weighted grain prices, $US / ton

150 202 253 160 154

Total crop harvested area, ‘000 ha

1,520,811 1,684,198 1,689,758 1,569,207 1,489,230

Developing country calorie availability / person / day

2,637 2,717 2,823 3,213 4,159

Malnourished children worldwide, mil.

153 136 115 78 50

Source: Adapted from UNEP 2012 with data from IMPACT model projections; Nelson et al. 2010Notes: Conventional approach: business-as-usual; Sustainable approach: consideration for competing resource demands;

emphasis on water, land, & energy conservation through investments in technological innovation & higher resource-use efficiency

Selected indicators for conventional and sustainable world scenarios

IFPRI IMPACT Model

Sustainable intensification: Future scenarios



A nexus approach must be adopted

LAND WATER

FOOD

ENERGY

Source: Adapted from Hoff 2011

Food-land-water-energy

Agriculture-nutrition-health

Source: Adapted from A4NH 2012

A nexus approach can minimize trade-offs and

promote sectoral synergies



Integrating sustainability and food security

Assessing natural resource impacts of food security strategies; and vice versa

Promoting resource-efficient technologies and practices

• E.g. solar-powered drip irrigation; slow-release fertilizers

Promoting climate-smart agriculture

• Triple wins” - productivity, adaptation, mitigation

• E.g. Improved crop rotation with legumes; use of cover crops

Reducing food waste and promoting healthy diet

• Tax unhealthy and unsustainable foods and support healthy and sustainable food production

Source: Bryan et al. 2011; Burney et al 2009



Integrating agriculture, nutrition, and healthBiofortification

• Integration of nutrient-rich varieties, high-yielding, and stress-tolerant crop varieties

• Orange sweet potato in Uganda—prevalence of Vitamin A deficiency reduced by over 30% among children

Homestead food production program, Bangladesh• Integration of home gardening, small livestock production, and nutrition

education

• Farmers’ varieties more than doubled; production almost tripled; and consumption of vegetables rose by 30%

One Health initiative• Integration of human medicine, veterinary medicine, and environmental

science

Source: Hotz et al. 2012; Spielman et al 2009; McDermott et al 2012

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