Role of development policies in combating

climate change issues in Indian Agriculture- A first order assessment of irrigation and fertilizer

policies

P.K. Joshi1, P.K. Aggarwal2, N.K. Tyagi3 & Divya Pandey1

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)1, International

Water Management Institute (IWMI)2 & Independent consultant (Land,

water and environment)3

Twin challenges for Indian agriculture

Adaptation

• 30-40% decline in crop yields (Kumar, 1998 in Sanghi & Mendelsohn,

2007)

• Source of livelihood for 58% of the population

• GDP contribution: 14.2%

Mitigation

• 0.6 million Gg CO2eq annual GHG emissions (FaoStat, 2015)

• 12% of world’s annual GHG emissions from agriculture

• 19% of the country’s total annual GHG emissions

DIVYA PANDEY

DIVYA PANDEY

“...Taking a firm stand that agriculture was a clear out-of-bounds sector with

respect to emissions reduction, India stalled all attempts of the developed world

to further discuss the issue in the ongoing CoP 18. The developing world’s long-

standing position has been that any discussion on agriculture must be held in

the realm of adaptation, not mitigation…”

03 December, 2012

DIVYA PANDEY

“India has scored an early victory at the climate negotiations here, ensuring

that the talks remain focused on adapting agricultural practices to climate

change and not on costly emission reduction measures that would impact

farmers directly.”

14 November, 2013

Adaptation-led-mitigation measures

(Jalloh et al. 2013)

“Against the background of the debate on the relative emphasis on

adaptation and mitigation, it is worth noting that in many instances the best

bets for improved agricultural production and sustainable management

of natural resources also have considerable mitigation potential.”

DIVYA PANDEY

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

(NMSA) (2010)

• Launched as a part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change

(NAPCC)

• Aims to:

Make agriculture more productive, sustainable, remunerative and

climate resilient

Water use efficiency, nutrient management etc.

DIVYA PANDEY

Development or “non-climate policies” too

have a role to play…

• Urwin & Jordan (2008): Role of “non-climate policies” explored

for agriculture, water resources and nature conservation

• Smith et al. (2007): Potential role of “non-climate policies” in GHG

mitigation from agriculture

• Not deliberately initiated to combat the challenges of climate change

• Yet, they continue to have significant bearings on how a sector deals

with climate change

DIVYA PANDEY

Irrigation and fertilizer sectors

Source - flickr/IFPRI-images Source - flickr/IITA

DIVYA PANDEY

Fertilizer subsidies and Expenditure on

irrigation (1992-2012)

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

8th (1992‐97) 9th (1997‐02) 10th (2002‐07) 11th (2007‐2012)

Fert

iliz

er

Irri

gati

on

Plan Periods

% of total expenditure outlay on irrigation % of fertilizer subsidy to GDP at current prices

Source - GoI (2011); Planning Commission (2013) and Gulati & Narayanan (2003)

DIVYA PANDEY

How have irrigation and fertilizer sectors

shaped India’s response to climate change?

• We develop a methodology to quantitatively assess the impact of

irrigation and fertilizer policies

• Assess impact by creating indices for:

Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Adaptation and Resilience

Sustainability (Water and Soil)

• Time period considered: 1990 - 2010

DIVYA PANDEY

1. Mitigation index (MI)

• Compute the aggregated and disaggregated contribution of

irrigation and fertilizers

• Compute the reduction in GHGs –

Considering avoided forest land conversion due to increased

crop productivity (AFC)

Without considering avoided forest land conversion (NAFC)

DIVYA PANDEY

1. Mitigation index (MI) (cont’d)

• ETBY: Emissions in the base year (1990)

• ETFY: Emissions in the final year (2010)

• EMTFY: Maximum emissions in the final year, in the absence of any

technology adoption

• IIFAFC: Intensification of GHG emissions, with consideration of

avoided deforestation benefits

• IIFNAFC: Intensification of GHG emissions, without consideration of

avoided deforestation benefits

DIVYA PANDEY

1. Mitigation index (MI) (cont’d)

DIVYA PANDEY

1. Mitigation index (MI): Results

Source – FaoStat (2015); Authors’ calculation

DIVYA PANDEY

181193

430

237

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Emissions (1990) Emissions withtechnology adoption

(2010)

Emissions withouttechnology adoption

(2010)

Emission decrease in2010, due toadoption oftechnologies

Emis

sio

ns

(MtC

O2

eq

)

Virtual Mitigation

1. Mitigation index (MI): Results

MIAFC (%) MINAFC (%)

Irrigation

(Surface and

Groundwater)

91.37 58.43

Fertilizer 94.48 49.75

Source - Author’s’ calculation

DIVYA PANDEY

2. Adaptation index (AI)

• FGPBY: Per capita food grain production in base year (1990)

• FGPFY: Per capita food grain production in final year (2010)

DIVYA PANDEY

2. Adaptation index (AI): Results

Increase in food

production

(kg/ha/yr)

Adaptation Index

(AI) (%)

Irrigation and fertilizer 72.00 26.10

Irrigation

(Surface and

Groundwater)

28.74 10.56

Fertilizer 14.37 5.28

Source – Authors’ calculation

DIVYA PANDEY

3. Resilience

• VP1: Variance of food production in 1st time period (1991-2000)

= 5334.7

• VP2: Variance of food production in 2nd time period (2001-2010)

= 5379.8

• 0.8% difference between the two time periods, suggesting high

resilience

DIVYA PANDEY

4. Sustainability indices: Water

DIVYA PANDEY

Indicator 2000 2010 2050

Degree of

development ratio

(DDS)1

0.522

(High)

0.586

(High)

0.938

(Extremely high)

Groundwater

abstraction ratio

(GWAR)2

0.530

(Normal)

0.657

(High)

1.00

(Extremely high)

Source - Amarsinghe, et al. (2004)1 and Committee on Groundwater Resources Estimation Report

(GoI,2009)2

4. Sustainability indices: Soil

• Mehta (2007), measures deviation from recommended use of N, P and

K, using Fertilizer use imbalance index (FLiBI)

DIVYA PANDEY

Source - Mehta (2007)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1990-2000 2002-03 2005-06

FLiBI

Concluding remarks

• Fertilizer and irrigation policies have led to -

• Increase in adaptation and resilience

• Reduction in GHG emissions (Virtual mitigation)

• Adaptation would continue to be primary area for combating climate

change issues in Indian agriculture

• But, future research and policies could consider factoring in incidental

GHGs reduction for adaptation-led-mitigation

DIVYA PANDEY

DIVYA PANDEY