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TRANSCRIPT
BMO Global Metals and
Mining Conference
February 2015
Disclaimer
Certain statements included in this presentation, as well as oral statements that may be made by Sibanye Gold, or by officers, directors
or employees acting on their behalf related to the subject matter hereof, constitute or are based on forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements are preceded by, followed by or include the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “envisage”, “intend”,
“plan”, “project”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “hope”, “can”, “is designed to” or similar phrases. These forward looking
statements involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are difficult to predict and
generally beyond the control of Sibanye Gold, that could cause Sibanye Gold‘s actual results and outcomes to be materially different
from historical results or from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks, uncertainties and
other factors include, among others, Sibanye Gold’s operations, Sibanye Gold’s ability to implement its strategy and any changes
thereto, Sibanye Gold’s future financial position and plans, strategies, objectives, capital expenditures, projected costs and anticipated
cost savings and financing plans, as well as projected level of gold price and other risks. Sibanye Gold undertakes no obligation to
update publicly or release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this
presentation or to reflect any change in Sibanye Gold’s expectations with regard thereto.
In accordance with the requirements imposed by the JSE, Sibanye Gold reports its reserves using the terms and definitions of the
SAMREC Code (2007 edition). There are differences between the SAMREC Code and the Security and Exchange Commission’s Industry
Guide 7. Mineral or ore reserves, as defined under the SAMREC Code, are divided into categories of proved and probable reserves and
are expressed in terms of tonnes to be processed at mill feed head grades, allowing for estimated mining dilution, recovery and other
factors.
The lead Competent Person designated in terms of SAMREC, who take responsibility for the consolidation and reporting of Sibanye
Gold’s Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves and of the overall regulatory compliance of these figures is Mr. Gerhard Janse van
Vuuren, who gave his consent for the disclosure of the C2015 Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement. Mr Janse van Vuuren
[BTech (MRM), GDE (Mining Eng.), MBA and MSCoC] is registered with Plato (PMS No 243) and has 27 years’ experience relative to the
type and style of mineral deposit under consideration. He is the current Vice President: Mine Planning and Mineral Resource
Management and is a full time employee of Sibanye Gold. Mr. van Vuuren consents to the inclusion of all information in this release
relating to mineral resources and mineral reserves in the form in which it appears.
The respective business unit based Mineral Resource Managers, relevant project managers and the respective Mineral Resource
Management discipline heads have been designated as the Competent Persons in terms of SAMREC and take responsibility for the
reporting of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves for their respective area(s) of responsibility. Additional information regarding these
personnel, as well as the teams involved with the compilation of the Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve declaration is incorporated
in the Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Supplement that will be published in conjunction with the 2014 Sibanye Gold Integrated
Report.
2
20%
31%
37%
2%
1% 8%
China
South Africa
USA
United Kingdom
Saudi Arabia
Others
* Source: J.P.Morgan Cazenove, 30 January 2015
Corporate information
3
Major Sibanye Gold shareholders *
Gold One Limited 19.80%
Allan Gray Investment Council 10.20%
Public Investment Corporation 8.05%
Shares in Issue ADRs in issue
898 840 196 244 432 718
Market Cap US$2.2 billion
Listings • JSE Limited share code: SGL • New York Stock Exchange ADR
programme share code: SBGL
Debt* US$173 million R4.5 billion facility available
Contact details
Libanon Business Park
1 Hospital Road (off Cedar Avenue)
Libanon, Westonaria, 1779
South Africa
Neal Froneman
CEO
Tel: +27 11 278 9600
e-mail: [email protected]
James Wellsted
Investor Relations
Tel: +27 11 278 9656
e-mail: [email protected]
Shareholder geographic distribution*
* Source: J.P.Morgan Cazenove, 30 January 2015
* At 31 December 2015
What differentiates Sibanye Gold
• Significant free cash generation
• Focused on superior, long term dividend yield
• South African focused
4 Uniquely positioned in industry
2014
Production ‘000oz 1,589
Total cash cost US$/oz 849
All-in cost US$/oz 1,080
EBITDA/Operating profit US$m 690
Cash generated by operations US$m 659
Uranium production ‘000lbs ~180
Net Debt US$m 127
Net debt/EBITDA Mulitiple 0.20
5 Cash generative, robust balance sheet
Salient operational and financial features
Location of operations and projects
6 South Africa focused and focused on the Wits Basin
Sibanye 2015 Mineral Resources and Reserve: gold
7
Attributable Mineral Resources Attributable Mineral Reserves
Gold 31 Dec 2014 Total 31 Dec ‘13 31 Dec 2014 Total 31 Dec ‘13
Tons
(Mt)
Grade
(g/t)
Gold
(Moz)
Gold
(Moz)
Tons
(Mt)
Grade
(g/t)
Gold
(Moz)
Gold
(Moz)
Underground
Beatrix 54.7 5.6 9.79 9.18 27.0 4.1 3.60 3.54
Driefontein 63.2 11.2 22.76 21.10 32.1 7.0 7.23 5.91
Kloof 60.7 14.9 29.11 30.13 26.2 8.0 6.71 5.78
Cooke 95.6 5.4 16.47 18.99 12.0 4.8 1.84 1.84
Underground projects 125.5 4.7 18.83 42.05 17.4 3.7 2.09 8.50
Total underground 399.7 7.5 96.96 121.44 114.7 5.8 21.47 25.57
Current surface rock dumps (SRD) and tailings storage facilities (TSF)
Beatrix 6.2 0.4 0.07 0.13 6.2 0.4 0.07 0.09
Driefontein 6.8 0.6 0.13 0.15 6.8 0.6 0.13 0.15
Kloof 13.1 0.5 0.22 0.25 10.3 0.6 0.19 0.25
Cooke (Randfontein
Surface) 9.5 0.4 0.11 0.28 9.5 0.4 0.11 0.23
Total SRD 35.5 0.5 0.81 0.81 32.7 0.5 0.50 0.72
Project tailings storage facilities (WRTRP)
Driefontein 166.4 0.3 1.81 1.79 166.4 0.3 1.81 1.79
Kloof 262.2 0.3 2.25 2.24 262.2 0.3 2.25 2.24
Cooke 280.4 0.3 2.40 2.45 280.4 0.3 2.40 2.40
Total WRTRP 709 0.3 6.46 6.48 709 0.3 6.46 6.42
Group Total 1144.2 2.8 103.94 128.73 856.3 1.0 28.43 32.71
14% increase in underground gold Reserves post depletion
Sibanye 2015 Mineral Resources and Reserve: uranium
8
Attributable Mineral Resources Attributable Mineral Reserves
Gold 31 Dec 2014 Total 31 Dec ‘13 31 Dec 2014 Total 31 Dec ‘13
Tons
(Mt)
Grade
(kg/t)
Uranium
(Mlb)
Uranium
(Mlb)
Tons
(Mt)
Grade
(kg/t)
Uranium
(Mlb)
Uranium
(Mlb)
Underground
Beatrix 11.4 1.074 25.658 25.658
Driefontein
Kloof
Cooke 53.9 0.559 66.385 50.861 4.6 0.377 3.827 5.416
Underground Projects 14.8 1.084 35.73 107.840
Total underground 80.1 0.302 128.726 184.359 4.6 0.377 3.827 5.416
Project tailings storage facilities (WRTRP)
Driefontein 158.2 0.064 22.326 21.764 158.2 0.064 22.326 21.764
Kloof 262.2 0.038 22.071 21.391 262.2 0.038 22.071 21.391
Cooke 280.4 0.088 54.256 54.776 280.4 0.088 54.256 54.256
Total WRTRP 700.8 0.064 98.653 97.931 700.8 0.064 98.653 97.411
Group Total 780.8 0.132 227.38 282.29 705.4 0.066 102.480 102.827
Sizeable uranium Resource provides optionality and leverage
Vision statement
SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION
FOR ALL OUR STAKEHOLDERS
9
through a culture of caring
SIBANYE GOLD
Reduce
costs and
paylimits
Increase flexibility
Increase margins
Optimise all capital including
balance sheet
Strong cash flows
Robust
dividends
Premium rating
Operating strategy
10 Restoring and sustaining operating credibility and delivering what investors want
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
500
700
900
1 100
1 300
1 500
1 700
1 900
2 100
2 300
2 500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F2015
Production (koz) Gold Price ($/oz) All-in cost
00
0o
z U
S$
/oz
Actual Forecast
Sibanye annual production and total cash cost
11 11 Reversing the negative operational trends
Dividends underpin the strategy
• Regular, consistent dividends are a key strategic imperative and
differentiator
• Sibanye will strive to maintain a benchmark dividend in the mining
sector
• Organic project development and acquisitions will be directed by the
ability to sustain or enhance the dividend strategy
• Projects and acquisitions will be funded from cash flow after dividends or
alternative funding options will be considered where appropriate
12 Ability to maintain superior dividends defines who we are
Relative dividend yield
Source: Bloomberg consensus numbers at 18 February 2015
Sibanye continues to deliver an industry leading dividend yield
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
%
Sibanye Yamana Gold Corp Barrick Agnico-Eagle Acacia Newmont
Gold Fields Randgold AngloGold Harmony Kinross Newcrest
13
Full year dividend of 112 SA cents per share
– 44% of 2014 normalised earnings
– 3.7% dividend yield at 18 February
2015
2014 Production profile – including projects*
14
-
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
2 000 000
Est
ima
ted
An
nu
al G
old
Pro
du
ctio
n (
oz)
SV4
Bloemhoek
Beisa
De Bron
Kloof drop down
Burnstone
WRTRP
Randfontein surface
Beatrix surface
Kloof surface
Driefontein surface
Cooke 4
Cooke 1-3
Beatrix u/g
Kloof u/g
Driefontein u/g
Project conversion required to sustain production profile
Underground
reserves in
LOM
Surface
reserves
in LOM
Feasibility
study being
undertaken
or reviewed
Pre-feasibility
study being
undertaken
or reviewed
(Phase 2)
*Project profile is conceptual and subject to change on completion of detailed studies
Assumptions: Gold price: 430,000 R/kg, Uranium 65 US$/lb and 10.50 ZAR:1US$ (real 2014 terms)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000
US$/oz
Est
ima
ted
Ca
pita
l C
ost
(R
00
0)
SV4
Bloemhoek
Beisa
De Bron
Kloof drop down
Burnstone
WRTRP
Randfontein surface
Beatrix surface
Kloof surface
Driefontein surface
Cooke 4
Cooke 1-3
Beatrix u/g
Kloof u/g
Driefontein u/g
US$/oz
Estimated 2014 capital profile*
15 Stable capital cost per ounce produced
US$/oz
Underground
reserves
in LOM
Surface
reserves
in LOM
Capital cost
US$/oz (Phase 2)
Pre-feasibility
study being
undertaken
or reviewed
Feasibility
study being
undertaken
or reviewed
*Project profile is conceptual and subject to change on completion of detailed studies
Assumptions: Gold price: 430,000 R/kg, Uranium 65 US$/lb and 10.50 ZAR:1US$ (real 2014 terms)
Estimated 2014 total cost profile (US$/oz)*
16 Total cost below current spot gold prices for the foreseeable future
*For illustrative purposes: based on 31 Dec 2013 Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources and assumes all projects are implemented
Assuming all projects are progressed, real model, ZAR10.50:US$1
Includes direct operational/project costs, excludes corporate, financing and other costs
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Tota
l c
ost
(U
S$/o
z)
Total Capital Costs
(US$/oz)
Total Operating
Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Spot Gold Price
(US$/oz)
(2014/09/15)
Dividend sustainability model – 2014*
17
-
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
Est
ima
ted
Fre
e C
ash
Flo
w a
fte
r C
ap
ita
l a
nd
Ta
x (
R000)
Reserves only
Total including all projects
2013 Dividend escalated
by 17%
2013 dividend escalated to account for extra shares in issue
Able to fund value accretive pipeline without risking dividend
*For illustrative purposes: based on 31 Dec 2013 Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources and assumes all projects are implemented
Includes direct operational/project costs, excludes corporate, financing and other costs
Gold price: 430,000 R/kg, Uranium 65 US$/lb and 10.50 ZAR:1US$ (real)
Continued rerating relative to peers and the gold price
Sibanye relative share price performance
18
Source: Bloomberg: 21 February 2015
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb
2013
Mar
2013
Apr
2013
May
2013
Jun
2013
Jul
2013
Aug
2013
Sep
2013
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
%
Sibanye Harmony Kinross AngloGold Acacia Gold Fields Yamana
Newmont Barrick Newcrest Agnico Eagle RandGold Gold Corp
Peer benchmarking
Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts 18 February 2015
19 Still offering significant relative value
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
US$
/oz
EV/Reserve oz
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
US$
/oz
EV/Production oz
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
%
2014 PE
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
%
Debt/Market Cap
South Africa: the benefits
• Well understood and simple geology - high grade resources
• Extensive, first world infrastructure
• Established mining jurisdiction with well developed associated industries
• Sound financial and judicial systems
• An abudance of skilled and experienced mining practitioners
• ZAR Currency provides US$ gold price offset
Alternatives to ESKOM supply being actively investigated 20
Rand gold price relatively stable – a natural hedge
Weakening ZAR provides revenue protection
21
Source: Inet: 22 February 2015
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Re
lative
go
ld p
ric
e p
erf
orm
an
ce
(%
)
Gold US$/oz Gold R/kg
South Africa: the challenges
• Reliability and cost effective electricity supply – Sibanye is actively
pursuing alternative sources of supply
• 150MW photovoltaic array in advanced feasibility study
• Offtake arrangements from Independent Power Producers (IPP)
• Regulatory uncertainty - ensure that all requirements of Mining Charter
are met
• Labour - good track record managing organised labour in a multi-union
environment
22 Alternatives to ESKOM supply being actively investigated
2013 scorecard
Passing with distinction 23
• Arrested the declining production profile
• Reduced costs and reset the cost base
• Two year wage agreement - limited operational disruption
• Gold Reserves by increased 6.4Moz – higher production for longer
• Unlock 4Moz gold and 43Mlb uranium in West Wits TSFs
• Secured extended future for the Beatrix Operation
• More than halved and favourably restructured debt
• Delivered on commitment to be a benchmark dividend vehicle
2014 scorecard
24
• Ongoing rightsizing and cost management
• Increase underground productivity
• Fast track the tailings retreatment opportunity
• Turn to account the high quality measured resource
• Integrated the Cooke and Wits Gold acqusitions
Delivering on targets
MORE of the SAME
25
through a culture of caring
2015 focus areas
2015 Operating Forecast
• Gold production: between 1.61Moz and 1.67Moz
• By-product uranium production: ~ 250,000lbs
• Total cash costs: between US$850/oz and US$875/oz
• All-in sustaining cost: between US$1,055/oz and US$1,100/oz
• Capital expenditure: Total capex US$320 million
• US$205 million Ore Reserve Development, US$80 million Sustaining
and US$36 million Project expenditure
Consistent performance forecast 26
Conclusion
1. Sibanye’s strategy is underpinned by its commitment to paying industry
leading, sustainable dividends
2. Sibanye’s high quality gold assets are cash generative and fundamental
to its ability to deliver on its strategy
3. Existing organic projects are able to sustain the current production
profile without compromising Sibanye’s dividend strategy
4. Acquisitions will be considered only if they are earnings enhancing on an
EPS basis
5. The sustainability of the business is secured by our ability to effectively
operate South African deep level mines and deal with South Africa
specific issues
27 Sibanye is committed to its vision of delivering value to ALL stakeholders
QUESTIONS